2019 TB12: Everyday Is Like Sunday

Super Nomario

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Seriously.

Has there been any — even one — comment by Brady himself that he is considering leaving or retiring at the end of this year?

Or has it all been (as it always is) conjured up by eyeball seeking mediots?
His contract voids in March. The smart money's on him returning, but we're in uncharted territory where the odds of him leaving are more than zero.

Just to throw some gas on these embers, if somehow they do manage to win it all this year, I wonder if Brady wouldn’t think “7 is good. I’m done.”
This would run counter to pretty much everything he's said ever. I think this is less likely than signing elsewhere.

Rooting for this scenario.
I don't get this. If they're good enough to win 7 this year with Brady, don't we have a chance to win again next year with Brady? Are you thinking they're better off with Stidham?
 

tims4wins

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His contract voids in March. The smart money's on him returning, but we're in uncharted territory where the odds of him leaving are more than zero.


This would run counter to pretty much everything he's said ever. I think this is less likely than signing elsewhere.


I don't get this. If they're good enough to win 7 this year with Brady, don't we have a chance to win again next year with Brady? Are you thinking they're better off with Stidham?
I just want him to ride out on top
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Right, so he wants leverage for something. Be it money, years, or something else. Retaining the leverage implies a willingness to leave, or at least the threat of that. It's not silly for people to think something is different this time than other times and that there is at least a small chance that he leaves.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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To be clear, I give him about a 2% chance or less of leaving for another team. (And probably higher of course for retirement, although that seems unlikely.) But last year I would have said there is a 0% chance he ever leaves the Pats for another team.
 

Ale Xander

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I wonder if Tom realizes that if he leaves and BB wins without him, his career may lose some mystique and aura. Unless one thinks he can win in San Diego or some other place that has a QB need, he can only go down from here. He's not going to Balt, he;s not going to KC, he's not going to NO, he's not going to SF (as great as that would be), he's not going to Seattle. Rams and Vikings are the only 2 teams I can see him putting them over the top but they have bad QB contracts to their current QB's I believe.
 

snowmanny

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I wonder if Tom realizes that if he leaves and BB wins without him, his career may lose some mystique and aura. Unless one thinks he can win in San Diego or some other place that has a QB need, he can only go down from here. He's not going to Balt, he;s not going to KC, he's not going to NO, he's not going to SF (as great as that would be), he's not going to Seattle. Rams and Vikings are the only 2 teams I can see him putting them over the top but they have bad QB contracts to their current QB's I believe.
Like how Joe Cool suffered reputationally?

edit: what happens to Belichick’s reputation if Brady leads the Bears to a title?

I think both legacies are secure at this point.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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Players on their rookie contract want to avoid the franchise tag, why would a 42 yo vet want open himself up to that?

Tom could simply be doing a solid for the union by setting the precedent to have that clause included.
 

joe dokes

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If he was 100% on stay or retire, he would have been fine with being franchised.
I don't agree. Being 100% stay or retire doesnt mean he's 100% with the league deciding what his pay will be.
 

snowmanny

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Haven’t the Patriots only used the franchise tag once, on a kicker, in like eight years? And we think they might have used it on Brady?
 

Marciano490

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One thing I don’t often hear considered - Brady has a company that basically centers on his ability to continue playing at a high level. He’s not a dude that got a lot of endorsements, so that’s his uber generational wealth money. He’s also married to a woman who kind of put out the blueprint for how to parlay long term physical giftedness into a thriving brand.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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You'd really take a $10 > $500 bet? I like those odds ... I'd set the line at around 7 - 1.
No, I wouldn't bet on it as the tiny upside isn't worth the large downside. But that doesn't mean I don't believe it's exceedingly unlikely for him to leave unless he retires.
 

axx

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Haven’t the Patriots only used the franchise tag once, on a kicker, in like eight years? And we think they might have used it on Brady?
Not disagreeing but clearly Brady thought it was necessary to get that clause in there. It'd be like 30 million so I doubt he would be upset with the pay.
 

axx

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Not clearly. Please see post 613. Stop speculating or thinking you know what he’s thinking.
TBH I don't know what bad faith would look like. If it was simply salary I'm sure he would be happy with the franchise tag. He's going to have to be year to year effectively regardless of where he goes given his age.

I would still vote retire but to me, insisting on no tag means he wants the option to play for another team although that doesn't mean that will actually happen.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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TBH I don't know what bad faith would look like. If it was simply salary I'm sure he would be happy with the franchise tag. He's going to have to be year to year effectively regardless of where he goes given his age.

I would still vote retire but to me, insisting on no tag means he wants the option to play for another team although that doesn't mean that will actually happen.
Stop trying to read tea leaves. Nobody outside of the three primaries here and his agent know why that was included and the motivations of it. The rest is bullshit sports talk nonsense.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Yes, on Ghost. But they used it a ton in the prior decade. Matt Cassell provably being the most famous case
I wouldn’t say a ton, but they used it on Walker in 2012, twice on Vinatieri. Tebucky Jones was similar to Cassell, simply so they could trade him. Wilfork to extend the window. The only really contentious ones they had were Mankins and Samuel.
 

McBride11

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One thing I don’t often hear considered - Brady has a company that basically centers on his ability to continue playing at a high level. He’s not a dude that got a lot of endorsements, so that’s his uber generational wealth money. He’s also married to a woman who kind of put out the blueprint for how to parlay long term physical giftedness into a thriving brand.
Uggz, TAG (that was the watch right?), that mattress one, UA, and Aston Martin? And I'm guessing 3 of those are decent money ones.
Never scored Papa Johns, I'm sure to his great dismay, but it isn't like he hasnt had endorsements.
 

snowmanny

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8 out of 11 years is a ton in my book
No I agree it was a ton previously. I thought I remember something about their thinking changing vis-a-vis the tag: too disruptive to the relationship with the player or something. Does that sound familiar?
 

NomarsFool

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I was looking at the salary list of QBs. It's amazing how much of a difference there is between the experienced guys who make ~$25 million and somebody like Mahomes who is only at $4.5 million. That's a lot of salary cap one can spend on other parts of the team.

This past week against the Bills was the first time in awhile I felt like the Patriots offense could be consistently competent. Take away that fluke Burkhead fumble and I think they would have blown out the Bills.
 

axx

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Stop trying to read tea leaves. Nobody outside of the three primaries here and his agent know why that was included and the motivations of it. The rest is bullshit sports talk nonsense.
If you want to put your head in the sand over the idea that Brady would never leave, that's fine.
 

NortheasternPJ

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I was looking at the salary list of QBs. It's amazing how much of a difference there is between the experienced guys who make ~$25 million and somebody like Mahomes who is only at $4.5 million. That's a lot of salary cap one can spend on other parts of the team.

This past week against the Bills was the first time in awhile I felt like the Patriots offense could be consistently competent. Take away that fluke Burkhead fumble and I think they would have blown out the Bills.
See: 2012-2015 Seahawks. If you can get a Rookie QB to play at a top level, you have a massive advantage over the rest of the league on the rookie contract. The issue is what happens in years 4-5 when you have a bunch of older overpriced vets at the end of their deals. The Hawks are back but definitely did some rebuilding after Wilson got paid to get a new salary structure.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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If you want to put your head in the sand over the idea that Brady would never leave, that's fine.
If you can't see the difference between putting your head in the sand and wringing your hands idly speculating on rumors, I'm not sure what to tell you. Show me a quote from someone involved, then I'll worry about it.
 

NomarsFool

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For not likely to be earned incentive bonuses, I assume the amount only counts against the cap the following year after they are earned?

Totally just talking crazy here, but could Brady accept a somewhat low guaranteed contract, with a number of really large incentives based on things like the team winning the AFC championship and SuperBowl? That way, Brady gets a chance to come back for an 8th ring next season, without a cap hit that inhibits the team's ability to get that 8th ring - and they only have to pay for it the year after.

I'm totally willing to concede that the team will need a reset, crappy year after Brady retires. But, it'd be great if they could find a creative way to put a good team around him as they go for that last ring. The challenge is that Brady, as much as a fan of him that I am, doesn't really seem worth $25 million/year at this point in his career - in my opinion. Not "worth it" just in the sense of how much of the cap that takes up. Frankly, they are not winning ballgames because of him anymore. He's still a good player, and a great veteran leader and all that, but at least this season he seems to have taken a step back.
 

Deathofthebambino

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For not likely to be earned incentive bonuses, I assume the amount only counts against the cap the following year after they are earned?

Totally just talking crazy here, but could Brady accept a somewhat low guaranteed contract, with a number of really large incentives based on things like the team winning the AFC championship and SuperBowl? That way, Brady gets a chance to come back for an 8th ring next season, without a cap hit that inhibits the team's ability to get that 8th ring - and they only have to pay for it the year after.

I'm totally willing to concede that the team will need a reset, crappy year after Brady retires. But, it'd be great if they could find a creative way to put a good team around him as they go for that last ring. The challenge is that Brady, as much as a fan of him that I am, doesn't really seem worth $25 million/year at this point in his career - in my opinion. Not "worth it" just in the sense of how much of the cap that takes up. Frankly, they are not winning ballgames because of him anymore. He's still a good player, and a great veteran leader and all that, but at least this season he seems to have taken a step back.
I disagree about him taking a step back. I think he's a major, major reason why this team is 12-3 right now. His personal stats may not look as good as they usually do (although they look just fine compared to his stats from 2001-2006, when they also had good defenses), but he leads the NFL with 40 throwaways, mostly because nobody can get open and the O Line can't block anyone, and the Pats lead the NFL in turnover margin at +23 (and are 3rd in turnovers on offense). These things matter, a lot. If they have Jarrett Stidham or someone else playing QB, do they beat the Bills last week or Cleveland or Dallas in the rain, etc.

As for the money. If Brady leaves after this season, the Pats have a 13.5million dollar cap dead money cap hit next year. So let's say they sign a QB for 15million (not sure who that would be in today's market), they're still on the hook for almost 29million at the QB position against the cap. So the question becomes, is Tom Brady at 25mil, worth more than the 29 million they would have to pay to bring in a 15mil QB, or 39million if they sign another QB for 25 million? This is a league where Jared Goff is getting 35mil a year, Kirk Cousins is getting 28mil, Dak is going to be looking for 35-40mil, etc. Tom Brady at 25million, in today's market is a bargain, IMO, especially when you consider that any QB they bring in basically starts at a baseline of 13.5 million against the cap.
 

tmracht

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For not likely to be earned incentive bonuses, I assume the amount only counts against the cap the following year after they are earned?
Kind of. Yes NLTBE do not count on that seasons cap at time of signing. The problem with your premise is what makes it NLTBE. That would be something he didn't do the prior season. So if they made super bowl. Any afccg incentives would be classified as likely to be earned and hit the cap right away. So it gets tricky coming off a good year.
 

NomarsFool

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I wonder how they handle that. Yes, making the AFC championship the prior year means it is more likely that the team makes it the next year, all else being equal. But, making the AFC championship game is actually pretty difficult to do. We're in a weird situation, because the Patriots have been a lock for the AFC championship game for a decade. But, normally, that isn't the case. But, I imagine that sort of track record would make almost any sort of incentive considered likely. One could imagine an arbitrator considering winning the SuperBowl at a 50% likelihood based on past track record :)
 

tims4wins

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I wonder how they handle that. Yes, making the AFC championship the prior year means it is more likely that the team makes it the next year, all else being equal. But, making the AFC championship game is actually pretty difficult to do. We're in a weird situation, because the Patriots have been a lock for the AFC championship game for a decade. But, normally, that isn't the case. But, I imagine that sort of track record would make almost any sort of incentive considered likely. One could imagine an arbitrator considering winning the SuperBowl at a 50% likelihood based on past track record :)
I don’t think it is up to an arbitrator. I think it is as simple as if he accomplishes something in 2019 it becomes likely, and if not, unlikely.
 

Cotillion

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Pats one year with Gronk literally put the incentives for yards, catches, and TDs all 1 over the previous year to make them NLTBE.
I think Edelman too.
 

BaseballJones

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Tom Brady's final stat line and where he ranks among qualified NFL QBs this year:

373-613 (60.8%), 4,057 yds, 6.6 y/a, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating

Comp: 373 (7th)
Att: 613 (4th)
Comp%: 60.8 (27th)
Yds: 4,057 (7th)
Yds/Att: 6.6 (27th)
TD: 24 (13th)
Rating: 88.0 (19th)

So Brady's final regular season numbers shake out for him to be roughly an average starting QB. For some reason, people want to compare him to Peyton Manning's last season. Well, here's Manning's last season:

198-331 (59.8%), 2,249 yds, 6.8 y/a, 9 td, 17 int, 67.9 rating

Comp: 198 (27th)
Att: 331 (28th)
Comp%: 59.8 (27th)
Yds: 2,249 (27th)
Yds/Att: 6.8 (28th)
TD: 9 (31st)
Rating: 67.9 (35th)

Peyton Manning was quite literally the worst starting QB in the NFL in his last year. Brady is middle of the pack at this point. Worlds of difference. Of course, the Broncos managed to win the SB with this corpse of a QB, thanks to an otherworldly defense. We now know that the Patriots' defense isn't otherworldly (more on that in the "what are we witnessing" thread), but they may still have the capability of supporting an average QB on a playoff run.

But looking back at Brady's last four seasons, we see:

27789

I love Tom Brady. But that's not a good trend. I will say his int% was pretty good. Just 8 on 613 attempts is solid. But clearly the numbers are headed downward. Tough to argue with the success still. In those four seasons, they have gone to three Super Bowls, winning two of them (and in the lone loss Brady was record-setting great), and just completed a 12-4 season. Nonetheless, the trend is pretty obviously on a downward arc. Not saying he couldn't come back next year and be better than he was this year, but the trend...well...is the trend.
 

axx

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Peyton was very good in the previous year though. Favre was the same deal, and Favre ended up getting benched. Peyton got hurt and essientally benched too, but they went back to him because the Lobster wasn't playing all that great.

I would be concerned that next year would be Brady's bad year. Phyiscally he still looks good, so I don't know.
 

BaseballJones

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Interesting numbers from pro-football-reference...

In 2018 Brady went 375-570 (65.8%), with 0 passes batted away, 22 throw-aways, 2 spikes, and 25 drops. Also 103 "bad throws".
In 2019 Brady went 373-613 (60.0%), with 6 passes batted away, 40 throw-aways, 0 spikes, and 32 drops. Also 110 "bad throws".

So let's eliminate the batted passes, throw-aways, spikes, and drops.

2018: 375-521 (72.0%); 103 bad throws = 19.8%
2019: 373-535 (69.7%); 110 bad throws = 20.6%

In other words, the numbers look pretty similar from last year to this year, when you take away things that really aren't Brady's "fault".
 

camneely

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May 9, 2018
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Interesting numbers from pro-football-reference...

In 2018 Brady went 375-570 (65.8%), with 0 passes batted away, 22 throw-aways, 2 spikes, and 25 drops. Also 103 "bad throws".
In 2019 Brady went 373-613 (60.0%), with 6 passes batted away, 40 throw-aways, 0 spikes, and 32 drops. Also 110 "bad throws".

So let's eliminate the batted passes, throw-aways, spikes, and drops.

2018: 375-521 (72.0%); 103 bad throws = 19.8%
2019: 373-535 (69.7%); 110 bad throws = 20.6%

In other words, the numbers look pretty similar from last year to this year, when you take away things that really aren't Brady's "fault".
This is a reasonable approach, and I think an accurate portrayal of his season. Though, it's worth noting that Brady may not have made the best decision in throwing a ball away, so some of them may very well be his "fault."

Brady looks hurt to me. His elbow is obviously an issue, and maybe other things that haven't been reported. When he's healthy, he's still a killer. But making it through a 16 game schedule, and then hopefully multiple playoff games, in good health is going to be increasingly difficult given his age. The Patriots need to organize themselves around that fact moving forward (or move on). That could mean carrying a competent backup QB and 'load managing' Brady's season. Or investing heavily in the OL. Or constructing an offense that otherwise minimizes Brady's exposure to hits. He got beat up this year. I don't think that's a sustainable status quo. Team success moving forward, in my opinion, depends on their ability to shepherd Brady through the season, in order to maximize his effectiveness in the playoffs.