2019 Trade Deadline
- Thread starter bosockboy
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what did DD do wrong exactly? is it his fault all of Price, Sale, Porcello can't go more than 6 innings ever? he didn't sign Pablo Sandoval or Dustin Pedroia, either.
personally, i thought he should have shed salary a bit last off season to get out of the painted corner.
I am not usually a DD defender, but I think you can make a fair argument that he didn't do anything wrong. Virtually his entire pitching staff regressed, despite them going out of their way to keep guys fresh, and Mookie and Beni started out slower than you would've expected. There are odds and ends he could've done differently (i.e., use Eovaldi and Pearce money differently), but I don't think those would've resulted in a major shift in how things have gone this year.
He literally said “If we play up to our capabilities with our guys in our starting rotation, I think we can beat anybody." If that's not a vote of confidence, I don't know what is.
Just because he acknowledges the team has under-achieved thus far doesn't mean he doesn't think they're capable of making the playoffs and going far once they get there.
It certainly does, but I'm not sure what that has to do with what you've quoted.
Thank you for saying this. I really get annoyed by the armchair psychoanalysis of Greinke specifically. As, for that matter, does that idea that Houston is somehow a "small market."
the vote of confidence would have been bringing in reliever. he punted on this team today, which i understand.
Right. It's not like Chris Sale has been bragging about how great he's been. W-L is an empty analytical tool, but switch him to 10-5 instead of 5-10 and the season looks different.
He built a bullpen every single person said was terrible in spring...and has been terrible all season...-and continues to not fix it.
Do I think he’s a terrible GM? No. But this was an error in judgment I am not going to suddenly talk myself into believing was the right call. At this point I just wish he started making whatever moves necessary to help us go into 2020 as a More complete team
"I think this team has what it takes to win" is not punting. Trading Nick Punto was punting.
I've never understood this mentality. I believe in you, so I went out and got new player(s) to shore up the deficiencies I'm confident you don't have.
This is where I'm at.
And to add to this: Houston has to be the overall favorite... but despite the record last season, the Astros were considered favorites over the Red Sox in the ALCS.
NY's rotation is weak and I can't believe they didn't address it. I'm guessing other teams were demanding too much (for a nice change when it seems like in previous years, other teams let the Yanks fleece them....). Obviously that offense is killer and can carry the club for 5-6 innings and then shut the opposition down. CC, Tanaka and Paxton and Happ can all (like any ML starting pitcher) catch a hot streak and dominate but the likelihood of that happening is low. German will likely tire as the season wears on.
Cleveland has some holes across their entire team. SP is questionable- Bauer gone and Kluber is still an unknown at this point back from injury.
Tampa is dangerous- no serious weak spots except youth and inexperience (which is... something...) but they also don't have any dominance at any spot.
Red Sox offense is top in the league (we only think it's prone to inconsistency because we watch them on a regular basis) and we know all their weaknesses at this point. But considering the biggest weakness (no... not the bullpen, jerk... the rotation!!!) it could also turn on a dime and be their biggest strength: David Price, Chris Sale. If you were going to put them up against the Yankees struggling starters and ask which team would be more likely to break into a dominant streak... you'd pick the Red Sox 9/10. Add in a very solid Rodriguez.... Kashner as the 4th playoff starter. Porcello to the bullpen and the team becomes even more dangerous than Tampa.
IMO, I'd rank the AL playoff contending teams this way, in likelihood of winning the AL:
1. Houston
2. Tampa/Boston
3. MFY
4. Cleveland
5. Oakland
6. Minnesota
I'm writing the Rangers and the Angels off. They should have sold big time.
As for what DD is thinking, it’s probably along the lines of “if Sale and Price get on track, we’ve got what we need, but if they don’t, no relief pitcher is going to make up the difference”.
Sorry, I was thinking for some reason Eovaldi and Pearce weren’t deadline deals. I still cannot believe they couldn’t work something out for relief help.
They weren't deadline deals in the sense that they happened on deadline day, which is probably being too literal about the term. Pearce was acquired on June 28, Eovaldi on July 25, Kinsler was July 30. Dombrowski has only actually acquired one player on July 31 itself since he's been the GM (Addison Reed). He tends to hit the market early for better deals. And given the way things went down today, grabbing Cashner two weeks ago was probably the better way to address the team's pitching with the resources they have. Hell, the Mets may have gotten a steal grabbing Stroman when they did rather than waiting until today.
I think it's a credit to Dombrowski that he didn't panic to make a deal at the deadline just for the sake of doing "something".
True. Probably for the best, as it doesn’t appear they’re going anywhere with the SP being so horrid almost every night.
I think they were close, but not sure exactly how to look that up after the fact. But Barnes had an era in the low 2s, so did Workman, Hembree in the high 2s, and Brasier hadn't totally imploded yet. It wasn't until June that everyone, other than Workman, turned to shit. They were something like 5th in the AL in relief era I'm pretty sure.
The bolded part is exactly how I feel. He's done a good job here overall, but this bullpen construction was bad at the start of the year and bad now. Everyone knew it seemingly but him. The spin he tried to put on the situation today was pretty insulting. He tried to talk his way out of it by talking up his bullpen and how many calls he got on them. That was the exact last thing he should have said.
You’re right, in low leverage situations they’ve done extremely well as a group, wouldn’t surprise me if they’re near the best in the league. And that low leverage success keeps their overall stats looking average to a little better. But when the going gets tough, these firemen bring their gas cans.
Yet again, Red Sox starters are right about average for innings pitched per start. They didn’t “wear down,” they reverted to their true talent level after pitching in some good luck and lots of low leverage innings for 2 months.
I don’t know. I’m not disagreeing that the pen he put together to start the season sucked donkeys, but the pen today has Taylor and Hernandez looking very much like quality major leaguers. Eovaldi is an elite talent when healthy, which he is right now. Most of the dreck they were throwing out there in the first half of the season has been replaced by those three. And that will make for better usage of the above average Barnes, average stuff and great results in Workman, and serviceable Hembree.
So, if Taylor, Hernandez, and Workman don’t turn into pumpkins, we may all end up being happy with the pen going into 2020, even though they started 2019 with no right to think that.
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They have a bunch of middle relievers. There aren't enough elite arms. When trying to compete with NY and Houston, it isn't good enough.
Up until a month ago I was saying the same thing, so I’m inclined to agree. But, Hernandez looks like an elite arm to me. Maybe I’m giddy at the new toy. Eovaldi is an elite arm as long as it remains attached. We’ll see.
To be fair, at least 2004 and 2007 were a different era. One elite arm was the norm, and they had two of the best in Foulke and Paps.
our rotation should be well above league average in innings per start. pretty sure that was part of the plan of going in with such a thin pen.
You don't need "elite arms". You need *good pitchers*, which I don't see as synonymous, though maybe you guys mean them to be the same thing.
They simply don't have enough good pitchers right now. Sale is, this season, mediocre. It's a sad, awful fact, but it's a fact. Price has been a little better than mediocre. Porcello has been, frankly, terrible. Their 5th starters have been terrible. Only Rodriguez has been (perhaps) better than we'd have expected among the starters.
In the bullpen, there's some tantalizing talent there. A bunch of guys have "elite arms" - when right, Barnes hits 98, Brasier 97, Hembree 96-97, Taylor 95 from the left side, Hernandez 98, Eovaldi 101, and Workman has one of the best curves in the business. They're just not great *pitchers*. Very mediocre staff, combined with a down year defensively for the Sox makes for a lot of runs being scored against them. In the second half of the season so far they're giving up an average of 5.9 runs a game. Just totally unacceptable from any staff that's seriously trying to make a playoff run.
In some cases it's guys who typically are good pitchers just underperforming (Sale, Price, Porcello, Barnes), and in some cases the guys probably are simply not that good (Hembree, Brasier, Taylor, 5th pitcher du jour, Cashner). Honestly, in the entire pitching staff, who, really, is outperforming expectations? Workman obviously. Taylor probably. Other than those two...anyone? Not that I can think of. Rodriguez maybe. That's....not good.
They simply don't have enough good pitchers right now. Sale is, this season, mediocre. It's a sad, awful fact, but it's a fact. Price has been a little better than mediocre. Porcello has been, frankly, terrible. Their 5th starters have been terrible. Only Rodriguez has been (perhaps) better than we'd have expected among the starters.
In the bullpen, there's some tantalizing talent there. A bunch of guys have "elite arms" - when right, Barnes hits 98, Brasier 97, Hembree 96-97, Taylor 95 from the left side, Hernandez 98, Eovaldi 101, and Workman has one of the best curves in the business. They're just not great *pitchers*. Very mediocre staff, combined with a down year defensively for the Sox makes for a lot of runs being scored against them. In the second half of the season so far they're giving up an average of 5.9 runs a game. Just totally unacceptable from any staff that's seriously trying to make a playoff run.
In some cases it's guys who typically are good pitchers just underperforming (Sale, Price, Porcello, Barnes), and in some cases the guys probably are simply not that good (Hembree, Brasier, Taylor, 5th pitcher du jour, Cashner). Honestly, in the entire pitching staff, who, really, is outperforming expectations? Workman obviously. Taylor probably. Other than those two...anyone? Not that I can think of. Rodriguez maybe. That's....not good.
I literally just posted this in the bullpen thread.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been the team's most dependable starter all season. That tells you all you need to know.
The Red Sox top 7 players (in terms of salary) are making nearly 128 million this year and an argument can be made that all of them have underperformed expectations. The Red Sox did need a closer early in the season and blown saves have cost the Sox some games, but if those 7 guys were even close to what they were last year the Red Sox would not be on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
I'm still holding out hope for Sale and Price. Anything at all from Porcello would be a bonus.
No, they weren't. Through 5/31, the Mets had the most blown saves in baseball with 12 (they still lead the majors). The Red Sox were in a six-way tie for 7th most at 9 (4th in the AL alone). (Fangraphs)
They really didn't *need* a closer early in the season. Of the nine blown saves they had prior to June, three came in the ninth. The rest came either before the ninth or in extra innings when the closer presumably would have already been used. Just for contrast, in 2018 when they had a "closer", they recorded five blown saves through 5/31 (two by Kimbrel in the 9th). I'm not sure that a true closer makes that much of a difference prior to the ninth inning. The blown saves in the seventh and eighth innings aren't going to be prevented just by having a true closer lurking in the bullpen. Just look at the Mets. Diaz was all world as a closer last year, yet they still racked up the blown saves out of the gate (granted some of them were his own doing).
Yes they did. Having an established and consistent closer makes the rest of the pen better. Going into the season without a dedicated guy was pure idiocy. Our WS championships were brought up a few posts ago asking about elite arms. 2004 Foulke, 2007 Paps, 2013 Koji, and 2018 Kimbrel were all damn good shut down closers. Add a guy who could come in the 9th and get the job done and this bullpen and this team would look better even with the underperforming from our starters and the offense.
'04 and '07 came in a different era of bullpen construction where most good pens were built on 1-2 good arms and filler and not 5-6 guys throwing 98. In '13, Koji was the best closer in the game and a couple guys stepped up. Last year the bullpen was not good in the regular season but was helped out for the most part by starters filling in gaps during the postseason which is not a sustainable way of handling the bullpen. In this day in age to compete with the Astros and Yankees they need better arms in their bullpen than they currently have. Workman is having a great year and Barnes for the most part is having a solid year but after that who else can be counted on? Workman can't close because walks way too many people(6.0 BB/9) to be fully relied on in the highest of leverage situations. Like I said before, their bullpen is made up of middle relievers. For all of Kimbrel's worts, he is still one of the most successful closers in the history of baseball. His presence at the back of the pen made it easier to mix and match with situational guys earlier in the game. Maybe I shouldn't be this surprised by how Dombrowski values the bullpen because he did the same thing in Detroit.
So, who would you have acquired? Kimbrel, who's currently sporting a somewhat worse version of the poor line many of us would have predicted for him? Familia, who's been even worse than that in New York? Britton, who's been middling in a setup role? Robertson, who crashed on the runway? Andrew Miller (mediocre)? Joe Kelly (ditto)? Herrera (awful)? Soria (meh)? Allen (awful)?
In fact, of the relievers on MLBTR's top 50 FA list heading into the season, I see only one who has been good enough to have made a positive difference by slotting in at closer for us--Ottavino, who in retrospect was pretty clearly always going to go with NY, unless perhaps we had dumped a mountain of money on his doorstep.
It's a lot easier to complain about what DD didn't do than to figure out exactly how he could have done it.
It's a little like saying that player A should have made the all-star team. That's fine. But it's a lot harder when you stipulate that another player has to be removed. Which player comes off the all-star team to make room for player A? That's a lot harder. Saying you'd do things differently is fine, but it's also very easy. Saying exactly what you would do - in advance, not after the fact with 20/20 hindsight - and seeing that choice pan out is much much more difficult.
Sure, it would be good to have an established and consistent closer. The problem is that it's impossible to know whether a given guy can fill that role in a given year. 2008 Papelbon and 2014 Uehara were good. 2005 Foulke and 2019 Kimbrel, not so much. As @Savin Hillbilly illustrates, if we'd gone into the offseason with the strategy of acquiring an "established and consistent closer," the odds are good that we'd be in exactly the same shitty place, without Eovaldi (or blowing past the luxury tax limit and losing a bunch of draft capital).
The question is, in a world where it doesn't make strategic sense to spend money or prospects on anyone but the most elite closers, how do you maximize your chances of having enough good arms in a given year? That's what Brewer was -- a decent, cheap bet. It didn't work out. But if you want to fault DD for anything, it's that he didn't acquire MORE Brewers, not that he didn't sign or trade for one of the upper-middle-class options.
To further emphasize your great point, need we look any further than the Mets? They came into the season with not one but two established closers in their pen (Diaz and Familia). In March, I imagine a lot of Sox fans would have loved if Dombrowski had somehow brought them both in. Would the team be any better off right now if he had? Not easy to say yes.
He had a bad April, but since then he's been pretty good. 13K/9 and a 1.27 WHIP.
We've been through in like six ways how weird and misleading the blown save stat is, but maybe this perspective will click for some people.
Take a look at the current list of teams by their number of blown saves:
22 Mets
21 A's
20 Cubs Nationals
19 Dodgers Padres Red Sox
18 Yankees Pirates Mariners
17 Braves Royals Tigers
16 Rays
15 Astros Rockies
14 Diamondbacks Orioles
13 Phillies Brewers
12 Reds Twins
11 Rangers
10 Indians Marlins
9 Cardinals Giants Angels
8 Blue Jays White Sox
What strikes me looking over this list is the way that most of the teams in the top half are excellent teams, some of them with elite, elite relief pitchers: Oakland, Chicago, Washington, LA, Boston, NY, Atlanta. There are far more contending teams in the top half of this list than the bottom.
As with RBI coming with opportunities, you need to *have* leads to blow them. If you're pitching in relief for the Marlins, you're not in many save situations. Indeed, they're at the bottom of the table, with only 68 (Boston has 103).
So this suggests a few things: Baltimore has 36 wins and 14 blown saves — ouch. On the converse, Cleveland (63 wins, 10 BS) and St. Louis (57 wins, 9 BS) are getting real efficiency out of their bullpen. Minnesota (66, 12), too. NY's 18 BS look better when you remember that they have 68 wins, and that makes sense: looking at the personnel, we'd expect good relief pitching from NY.
But any account of how the number of blown saves is a major headwind for Boston should probably also engage with the fact that the Dodgers, the best team in the NL and the current MLB wins leader at 71-39, has the same number.
Now, this isn't to say that everything's amazing in the Boston pen.
I played around with a spreadsheet and created a simple stat: Team (Holds+Saves)/Save Situations. League average is 81.2%, and the low team (unsurprisingly, the Mets) is at 72.6%. The best team (again, unsurprisingly) is SFG with 89.5%. The Giants have turned 90% of leads handed to their bullpen into wins! That's tremendous. Boston is in a cluster of teams a few tics shy of average, at 78.6%, ahead of contenders in Oakland, Los Angeles, and Chicago. TBR is right at average, but they have by far the most save situations. NYY is well above average, at 86.2%, one spot ahead of Houston.
Basically, Boston's pen is preserving 4 of 5 close leads, and NY's is preserving 5 of 6.
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