Yeah, I know, I am correcting him. He is one of the best beat writers around for any team, but he is either slipping or had a subpar year.
2019-20 Yankees Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
Yeah, I think he is likely to opt out, although I don't think he will get much more on the open market, especially with the draft pick compensation holding his value down a bit.
Stanton isn’t necessarily a problem if he stays healthy. He’s only turning 30 this November and can be a productive DH for most of his contract . As for him not hitting good pitching, that is not true at all.
2016-2018 OPS
BOS 1.123
TB .850
OAK .895
HOU .804
2016-2018 OPS
BOS 1.123
TB .850
OAK .895
HOU .804
Of the biggest questions - Here is a small list of players who the Yankees have control of but currently no clear plan for how to fit them in.
First Base Options
Mike Ford
Greg Bird
Luke Voit (included here because only 1 of these players will get the job)
Infield Options
Miguel Andujar
Tyler Wade
Outfield Options
Mike Tauchman
Clint Frazier
Catchers
Higashioka
If we can't find a trade partner for Andujar, do we give him a first base mitt?
First Base Options
Mike Ford
Greg Bird
Luke Voit (included here because only 1 of these players will get the job)
Infield Options
Miguel Andujar
Tyler Wade
Outfield Options
Mike Tauchman
Clint Frazier
Catchers
Higashioka
If we can't find a trade partner for Andujar, do we give him a first base mitt?
Most of those are pretty easy IMO:
Voit, Tauchman (out of options) and Wade (utility infielder) make the team.
Andujar, Clint and Bird get dealt or try to rebuild value in AAA (all have options). Ford also likely goes to AAA.
Higashioka is tricky, out of options, he will be the backup catcher if they don't bring in someone better. He deserves a real chance but it might not be here.
Anyway, I believe Tauchman and Higashioka are the only two there out of minor league options, so a lot of those guys may end up as depth again.
Voit, Tauchman (out of options) and Wade (utility infielder) make the team.
Andujar, Clint and Bird get dealt or try to rebuild value in AAA (all have options). Ford also likely goes to AAA.
Higashioka is tricky, out of options, he will be the backup catcher if they don't bring in someone better. He deserves a real chance but it might not be here.
Anyway, I believe Tauchman and Higashioka are the only two there out of minor league options, so a lot of those guys may end up as depth again.
One option is that if Didi walks then leave Gleyber at 2nd and Wade plays SS. DJ can continue his current role. The defense here I imagine would be better at SS. Also, Wade seemed like he made great progress at the plate towards at the end of the season. He had an .852 OPS in September in 37 AB.
Between resting players and inevitable injuries, DJ can get his 600 AB for the year, similarly to this year.
Sure, but you don't start Wade over him, you plan for the season as I suggested:
Voit/Ford: 1B
DJ: 2B
Gleyber: SS
Urshela: 3B
DJ is solid defensively at 3B and 1B, but he seems to be much better at 2B, especially if he is playing there regularly. Wade has the inside track as the utility infielder, although Thairo Estrada looked at least as promising as him this year (but Wade can also play the OF in an emergency).
As a Sox fan I just hope they stick to the plan of investing in the bullpen and just patching the rotation together another year. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
And actually if you wanted to keep DJ as a utility guy and Didi is gone, Kyle Holder might be the best option as an everyday SS. He is supposed to be an Ozzie Smith-type defensive talent and had the 11th highest OPS in the very pitcher-friendly Eastern League last year at .742, just ahead of overall #1 pick in 2016 Mickey Moniak. Holder isn't on the 40 man yet, hopefully he will be once they make those decisions in the next few weeks.
They did finish 19 games ahead of BOS this year, but whatever gets you through the night.
Also, they didn't 'patch the rotation together', their ace (Severino) missed almost the entire season, they traded their top prospect for Paxton, they spent a good bit of money on Happ, and most importantly, their pitching was not really the problem despite German and Betances being out. If they don't upgrade next season (which they probably will), they will have a rotation of Paxton, Tanaka, Severino, German (once he's back from suspension) and Happ, which is already better than they had at any point this year, and that's not factoring in the kids who are close to ready like Garcia and Schmidt, plus Montgomery and King who also both missed most of the season with injuries.
This is who I think will make up the Yankees 25-man roster. They let Gardner and Romine go, re-sign Chapman when he opts out, re-sign Gregorius, and sign Gerrit Cole. I don't think they go and sign an expensive backup catcher like Travis D'Arnoud or Jason Castro. Robinson Chrinios would be great on a 1-year deal, but I can't see any way he gets out of Houston. They can't be committed to utilizing their bullpen and let Chapman go so that's why I think they re-sign him. Signing Cole slots everyone down a peg which makes this rotation very formidable. Andujar comes back and doesn't have to worry about playing the field as much as he did. I think they try to trade Happ but don't find any takers for his potentially $34 million left on his deal. Didi comes back because he's a good clubhouse guy and they don't want to trade what Cleveland wants for Lindor.
C: Sanchez
1B: LeMahieu
2B: Torres
SS: Gregorius
3B: Urshela
LF: Stanton
CF: Hicks
RF: Judge
DH: Andujar
Backup C
Voit
Frazier
Tauchman
SP1: Cole
SP2: Tanaka
SP3: Severino
SP4: Paxton
SP5: German
CL: Chapman
SU: Britton
SU: Kahnle
SU: Ottavino
RP: Green
RP: Happ
RP: Loaisiga
C: Sanchez
1B: LeMahieu
2B: Torres
SS: Gregorius
3B: Urshela
LF: Stanton
CF: Hicks
RF: Judge
DH: Andujar
Backup C
Voit
Frazier
Tauchman
SP1: Cole
SP2: Tanaka
SP3: Severino
SP4: Paxton
SP5: German
CL: Chapman
SU: Britton
SU: Kahnle
SU: Ottavino
RP: Green
RP: Happ
RP: Loaisiga
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I know they make their decisions independent of what their rivals do; but given the announced intentions of the Red Sox to reduce payroll, I wonder if that will nudge Cashman in the direction of trying to spend more than in recent years to try to widen the gap.
This is all pretty reasonable but Tauchman is ahead of Frazier (by a lot) and also it's hard to believe they don't bring back Gardner, which pushes Stanton to DH and Andujar likely to AAA to get regular ABs.
I actually forgot Tauchman on the roster which is why I only had 24 on there. Yes, I think he's on the roster.
I don't think so just because spending money on player contracts if you don't absolutely need to hurts more often than it helps these days. Obviously there are exceptions but I think NY's basic philosophy since this rebuild started in 2016 is largely stolen from Friedman and the Dodgers, keep upgrading incrementally in every way that you can and mostly stay away from the giant salary expenditure moves. NY's one exception to this since then (unless I'm forgetting something) was the Stanton deal, which Cashman would probably undo if he could given everything that has happened since then.
If they solely measure themselves against the Sox, they are in bigger trouble than I thought. Keep shaking your head in the playoffs wondering what went wrong, while teams who build through the rotation take the title every year.
Of course, if you'd rather change the subject and talk about Boston, that's the price you pay for investing in the rotation: starting pitching can vary a lot from year to year, injuries, aging, etc. But if it does all come together, you can roll through the playoffs, fickle 7-game series dynamics or no. When is the last time a team built around the bullpen instead of the rotation and won it all?
The Royals a few years ago actually, but that's really a simplistic point. The Nats have had Scherzer and Strasburg together for many years and never won a playoff series until this year, but again, NY's postseason pitching this year was really good, and that was with two major guys out (German/Betances).
I'm not saying don't go after Cole, going after him is in my first post in this thread. I am saying that there are only a handful of guys on that level and guys like Stroman or Bauer or Keuchel or Robbie Ray are not really ace-level upgrades, so it's pretty dumb to trade top prospects for them given who NY already has.
If the Yankees sign Cole or another high-end starter that bumps everyone down on the rotation order, I think Happ will have a difficult time getting his option to vest for 2021. From what I just read, Happ needs to pitch 165 innings or make 27 starts next year to vest his $17m option for 2021.
He had 31 starts this year, but only pitched 161.1 innings. He just doesn't go deep into games with the Yankees. If he's lower on the depth chart and the Yankees still do occasional bullpen games, those starts going down from 31 to under 27 isn't hard to imagine.
Another good reason to go after Cole or #1/#2 starter type
He had 31 starts this year, but only pitched 161.1 innings. He just doesn't go deep into games with the Yankees. If he's lower on the depth chart and the Yankees still do occasional bullpen games, those starts going down from 31 to under 27 isn't hard to imagine.
Another good reason to go after Cole or #1/#2 starter type
I think if they get a high-end guy who bumps everyone down one, Happ will be dealt, as they still have Montgomery, King, Deivi to fill in behind, and then his potential vesting issue will be someone else's problem. Montgomery can cover the German suspension period, then go back to being 6th guy.If the Yankees sign Cole or another high-end starter that bumps everyone down on the rotation order, I think Happ will have a difficult time getting his option to vest for 2021. From what I just read, Happ needs to pitch 165 innings or make 27 starts next year to vest his $17m option for 2021.
He had 31 starts this year, but only pitched 161.1 innings. He just doesn't go deep into games with the Yankees. If he's lower on the depth chart and the Yankees still do occasional bullpen games, those starts going down from 31 to under 27 isn't hard to imagine.
Another good reason to go after Cole or #1/#2 starter type
Agree. It's a little tough to argue about what works in a short series since the numbers are not terribly revealing. But "ace"-level starters provide a stability and confidence (maybe?) that constitutes a meaningful advantage. On the flipside, seeing relievers day after day tends to diminish their advantage, and they get run down as well. Relative to a team that invests more in starters and cobbles together an OK bullpen (which in a short series can include innings from those top starters), I just don't see the Yankees' approach as giving them much of an advantage.
Good article in the Ringer about starters in the playoffs, looking at the loaded Tigers teams from 7-8 years back. They didn't win, but they were about to step on the Sox' throats in 2013 until Papi rescued them against their bullpen. Royals obviously did win with a 'pen-heavy approach, as you said, which set off a few teams following suit. But over time this hasn't generally won out in the postseason over strong rotations.
Sure, I agree. But if RedOctober is right and they have a hard time doing it with that option hanging out there (if someone trades for him, they need him to play and he'd maybe have an easier time hitting that option), there is a good chance the option goes away for 2021 anyway.
I agree with all of that, and I don't think Cashman at any point chose to focus on the bullpen over the rotation. He wasn't able to make moves he was totally happy with (he should have pulled the trigger on a Cole deal two years ago in retrospect, but Cole wasn't close to the same pitcher at that point that he became in HOU) to get aces he trusted, so he added to the bullpen.
The really ironic thing, which no one seems to mention or remember, is that the two SPs he traded for and then let go after 2018, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn, were both ace-level in 2019.
I really don't think Cashman is trying to create an advantage. More like mitigating SP risk.
Oh, and what Cashman was trying with the bullpen approach hadn't really ever been tried before in terms of depth. The Royals basically used 3 guys to cover the final 3 innings every game, but Cashman was hoping to go 6-7 guys deep (Chapman, Britton, Kahnle, Betances, Ottavino, Green and German who got moved to the pen before his suspension). Boone only had 4 of those 7 by the end as Ottavino kind of imploded, Betances was hurt and German suspended, but German and Betances on the roster flip that series IMO.
What would be awful is if Cole signs elsewhere despite NY pursuing him hard and then says afterwards that his decision was made in part because of the shitty behavior of the NY fans during the playoffs, similarly to Cliff Lee going to PHI (Lee's decision also had to do with his sick kid, but still).
Interesting. With Jon's point, maybe he saw no real choice in the matter of trying to stack the rotation. So loading up on Ottavino, Britton etc. is kind of a no-confidence vote in the rotation? I don't follow the Yankees closely enough but it sounds like the problem lies with ownership's limited willingness to sign pitchers to big contracts because... well, look at the Price and Sale deals. But they're the case FOR the big contracts too.
But it's not an abstract thing, it's specific guys. Scherzer (FA) and Sale (trade) became available before this rebuild started, Verlander (trade) was being paid too much at the time and would have ruined NY's tax reset (even HOU didn't take on his entire salary then), Cole (trade) was a mistake in retrospect, but both Cole and Verlander got better in HOU also which they might not have done elsewhere. Corbin at 6/140 isn't a difference maker IMO, just another in the Tanaka/Paxton/Severino category.
If they don't go hard after Cole this winter, then we'll know it's a team philosophy (also I don't think it's ownership, Hal will do whatever Cashman asks him to at this point from what I can tell).
Yeah OK. In looking back over recent offseasons, Price was a guy they could have pursued, but beyond that the rest of the options weren't transformative players.
Another Sherman column, on the decisions they need to make on their own players:
https://nypost.com/2019/10/21/yankees-offseason-starts-with-five-tough-salary-cap-choices/
https://nypost.com/2019/10/21/yankees-offseason-starts-with-five-tough-salary-cap-choices/
There's a strong chance that German misses significant time next year. I am guessing that we're gonna see 40-80 games.If the Yankees sign Cole or another high-end starter that bumps everyone down on the rotation order, I think Happ will have a difficult time getting his option to vest for 2021. From what I just read, Happ needs to pitch 165 innings or make 27 starts next year to vest his $17m option for 2021.
He had 31 starts this year, but only pitched 161.1 innings. He just doesn't go deep into games with the Yankees. If he's lower on the depth chart and the Yankees still do occasional bullpen games, those starts going down from 31 to under 27 isn't hard to imagine.
Another good reason to go after Cole or #1/#2 starter type
I think he’s done about 25 games already, we still have no idea what actually happened.
With Happ, I think we have to wait to see the type of ball that MLB will use next year. Clearly, he couldn't adjust to the juiced ball like Tanaka (grip) and Paxton.
If Gleyber is going to be the SS (if Didi leaves) then he should work on his focus. I’m not sure how that works for him, but I know it works for people who lack focus, students for example. As for trading him, I don’t think that’s a good idea because of how great he is, and because he has the potential to become a postseason legend if this season is an indication.
The team has desirable minor league assets, as Sherman and others have stated, and can probably acquire Lindor that way. As for affording Cole or Stratsburg, there was an article several months ago about how NY can afford a lot more than their current payroll. Revenue continues to increase and their valuation, according to Forbes, increased 600 million to 4.6 billion from 2018 to 2019.
The team has desirable minor league assets, as Sherman and others have stated, and can probably acquire Lindor that way. As for affording Cole or Stratsburg, there was an article several months ago about how NY can afford a lot more than their current payroll. Revenue continues to increase and their valuation, according to Forbes, increased 600 million to 4.6 billion from 2018 to 2019.
NY loses a front office guy, I believe Barber had a part in drafting Judge.
"The Phillies have officially named Brian Barber as their new director of amateur scouting. Barber was the Yankees' national crosschecker for the past decade and has been with New York since 2002."
"The Phillies have officially named Brian Barber as their new director of amateur scouting. Barber was the Yankees' national crosschecker for the past decade and has been with New York since 2002."
Well, it is safe to say that Aaron Hicks won't be an option next year for the Yankees. He is having TJ surgery on his right elbow and is out 8-10 months. Tanaka also undergoing surgery to remove bone chips in his pitching elbow and Luke Voit is having core muscle surgery.
https://wfan.radio.com/articles/news/yankees-aaron-hicks-undergo-tommy-john-surgery
https://wfan.radio.com/articles/news/yankees-aaron-hicks-undergo-tommy-john-surgery
Goodbye music. Cashman all but saying Ellsbury won't be a Yankee next year.
Can we ever get clarification on Ellsbury? I'd love to hear it. Like they just dont want him around anymore or he just doesnt care to play anymore.
Is he still injured? Are they still getting insurance to pay for a part of his deal?
What a horrible signing that turned out to be.
Is he still injured? Are they still getting insurance to pay for a part of his deal?
What a horrible signing that turned out to be.
So with Hicks out most if not the entire season, the teams OF options are at Stanton, Judge, Tauchman, Gardner and Maybin. I guess it remains to be seen if Stanton will primarily be the LF or DH to determine who will most likely return.