2020-2021 NBA Game Thread

Sam Ray Not

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Later in the game Draymond had the worst shot of the season.
Shaqtin a fool worthy. Warriors down 3 with 7 seconds left, Steph making ridiculous threes all game, Draymond with the ball 35 feet from the hoop ... and he randomly rises and heaves it in the hopes of drawing a foul. No call, brick, game over.

Even if the goal was to get three FTs it was a boneheaded decision, as he’s a 70% FT shooter who had just badly bricked two FTs to put them in the hole.

Ws now 12-12 ... might be 15-9 if they freed Steph a bit in terms of minutes and usage. Scored 32 points tonight on 17 fga. But I get pacing him over the long season, plus protecting their first round pick.

Goddam Draymond, tho...
 

lovegtm

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Shaqtin a fool worthy. Warriors down 3 with 7 seconds left, Steph making ridiculous threes all game, Draymond with the ball 35 feet from the hoop ... and he randomly rises and heaves it in the hopes of drawing a foul. No call, brick, game over.

Even if the goal was to get three FTs it was a boneheaded decision, as he’s a 70% FT shooter who had just badly bricked two FTs to put them in the hole.

Ws now 12-12 ... might be 15-9 if they freed Steph a bit in terms of minutes and usage. Scored 32 points tonight on 17 fga. But I get pacing him over the long season, plus protecting their first round pick.

Goddam Draymond, tho...
It's crazy to watch what happens when a guy who made it without tons of athleticism (by NBA standards) loses a step. Usually we're used to guys declining gradually and making up for decreased athleticism with savvy, but Draymond never really had a ton of buffer.
 

Sam Ray Not

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It's crazy to watch what happens when a guy who made it without tons of athleticism (by NBA standards) loses a step. Usually we're used to guys declining gradually and making up for decreased athleticism with savvy, but Draymond never really had a ton of buffer.
I mean, "declining gradually and making up for decreased athleticism with savvy" is pretty much Draymond right now. For his horrid shooting and boneheaded turnovers, he's still been a big plus for them on the floor this season (+8.1 net on-off, best among GS starters); is averaging a career high 9.8 assists per 36; and has helped lift the Warriors from an atrocious defensive team to start the season to the #8 defense in the league (#3 in opponents' FG%).

I'd note that the "decreased athleticism" this season is partly just not being in shape after missing most of training camp due to Covid. He has said he he's not 100% in game shape, but getting closer. I do think as he heads into his 30s he's going to need a stricter idea of what "100% in game shape" means. Being a little bit fat plays better when you're 25 than when you're 32. He needs to get on the late-career CP3 regime.
 
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Jimbodandy

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In what sense? Its using last year as a baseline and measuring the rate of change. What is off?
Looking at the top of the list and nodding my head at Conley and Grant as clear MIP type candidates, then notice that Wood is nowhere to be found.

A lot of this list are JAGs, like Semi, Diallo, Washington, and Valentine. What is Tyler Herro supposedly doing so much better on defense? James Ennis and Ish Smith took huge leaps on D? I honestly don't even know who Jarred Vanderbilt is.

I guess that this has some of the same problems as RPM with the per 100 possessions thing, but when the list seems that off I'm just not sure what it's supposed to be telling me. I bitch and moan about the state of basketball metrics (particularly defensive ones), so I guess it was time for another of my complaints. Sorry about that.
 

chilidawg

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Looking at the top of the list and nodding my head at Conley and Grant as clear MIP type candidates, then notice that Wood is nowhere to be found.

A lot of this list are JAGs, like Semi, Diallo, Washington, and Valentine. What is Tyler Herro supposedly doing so much better on defense? James Ennis and Ish Smith took huge leaps on D? I honestly don't even know who Jarred Vanderbilt is.

I guess that this has some of the same problems as RPM with the per 100 possessions thing, but when the list seems that off I'm just not sure what it's supposed to be telling me. I bitch and moan about the state of basketball metrics (particularly defensive ones), so I guess it was time for another of my complaints. Sorry about that.
Wood was quite good last year by most advanced metrics, which would explain why he isn't on a most improved list. Guys with limited minutes like the JAG's you list have a much smaller sample size, and thus it's easy for some good luck to propel them onto this list. Or maybe they actually got better, they certainly had more room for improvement.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Looking at the top of the list and nodding my head at Conley and Grant as clear MIP type candidates, then notice that Wood is nowhere to be found.

A lot of this list are JAGs, like Semi, Diallo, Washington, and Valentine. What is Tyler Herro supposedly doing so much better on defense? James Ennis and Ish Smith took huge leaps on D? I honestly don't even know who Jarred Vanderbilt is.

I guess that this has some of the same problems as RPM with the per 100 possessions thing, but when the list seems that off I'm just not sure what it's supposed to be telling me. I bitch and moan about the state of basketball metrics (particularly defensive ones), so I guess it was time for another of my complaints. Sorry about that.
Why wouldn’t JAGs be on there if it’s simply measuring biggest change?

Mostly I see guys who were on the extreme ends last year (e.g. Semi on O Sexton on D) and therefore had lots of room for improvement and/or regression; or guys who are having outlier-type impacts numbers in a limited sample size this year, like Conley, Thad, Nwaba.

Vanderbilt was a blue chip recruit who went to Kentucky but was plagued by injuries. Talented kid who’s career path was really set on fire by shit luck. It’s been nice to see him work his way back into playing time as an energy big after the injuries sapped his athleticism.

As for the advanced stats, generally, as long as people know (mostly) what they actually say (and what they don’t), I guess I don’t really see the problem with people throwing them around here to point out potentially interesting stuff. I typically find that people who create them are usually pretty good at contextualizing them and giving most of the appropriate caveats and disclaimers. If anyone’s interested, here’s a link to a discussion on LEBRON.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thinking-basketball/id1428290303?i=1000508218519
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Looking at the top of the list and nodding my head at Conley and Grant as clear MIP type candidates, then notice that Wood is nowhere to be found.

A lot of this list are JAGs, like Semi, Diallo, Washington, and Valentine. What is Tyler Herro supposedly doing so much better on defense? James Ennis and Ish Smith took huge leaps on D? I honestly don't even know who Jarred Vanderbilt is.

I guess that this has some of the same problems as RPM with the per 100 possessions thing, but when the list seems that off I'm just not sure what it's supposed to be telling me. I bitch and moan about the state of basketball metrics (particularly defensive ones), so I guess it was time for another of my complaints. Sorry about that.
Its not entirely clear but those are just the biggest improvements/declines this year per 100 possessions. Its not a list of the best and worst players per se.

All the data is still very suspect given all the pandemic impacts as well as the relatively small sample sizes. Frankly, I would be very wary of players who are showing improvements to their game this season - especially if they are trade candidates. Outside of players who are on a specific trajectory (e.g. Tatum) I think paying up for a veteran player who is showing a leap in efficiency is an invitation to top tick a market in a painful way.

In any event, I thought that Tweet was interesting if not definitive. We should certainly question the data but we should also be open to what it is telling us.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Shaqtin a fool worthy. Warriors down 3 with 7 seconds left, Steph making ridiculous threes all game, Draymond with the ball 35 feet from the hoop ... and he randomly rises and heaves it in the hopes of drawing a foul. No call, brick, game over.

Even if the goal was to get three FTs it was a boneheaded decision, as he’s a 70% FT shooter who had just badly bricked two FTs to put them in the hole.

Ws now 12-12 ... might be 15-9 if they freed Steph a bit in terms of minutes and usage. Scored 32 points tonight on 17 fga. But I get pacing him over the long season, plus protecting their first round pick.

Goddam Draymond, tho...
delete
 

HomeRunBaker

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I mean, "declining gradually and making up for decreased athleticism with savvy" is pretty much Draymond right now. For his horrid shooting and boneheaded turnovers, he's still been a big plus for them on the floor this season (+8.1 net on-off, best among GS starters); is averaging a career high 9.8 assists per 36; and has helped lift the Warriors from an atrocious defensive team to start the season to the #8 defense in the league (#3 in opponents' FG%).

I'd note that the "decreased athleticism" this season is partly just not being in shape after missing most of training camp due to Covid. He has said he he's not 100% in game shape, but getting closer. I do think as he heads into his 30s he's going to need a stricter idea of what "100% in game shape" means. Being a little bit fat plays better when you're 25 than when you're 32. He needs to get on the late-career CP3 regime.
It isn’t only a lack of training camp/exhibition games for Draymond. The Warriors season ended on March 10th.......and didn’t play again until Dec 22nd. That’s 9 and a half months without competitive basketball. This extended layoff can also be at least partly attributed to Tristan’s slow start as well.
 

terrynever

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Kings up 71-64 over 76ers at halftime, shooting 58 percent from floor, 55 from beyond the arc. Fox with 23, Hield 17. Just too fast for Philly, up the floor and with their releases. Frigging Halliburton is hot again. 76ers did not play through Embiid much (5 shots so far) but they gotta slow the game down in second half. Not sure they can. Fox is like the Roadrunner out there.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Haliburton continues to crush it while Obi Toppin puts up another of his 4 pts 1 reb 0 ast specials (in 11 minutes). But it’s okay, Toppin is only 23.
 

Cellar-Door

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Nets didn't have Durant..... but still
Haliburton continues to crush it while Obi Toppin puts up another of his 4 pts 1 reb 0 ast specials (in 11 minutes). But it’s okay, Toppin is only 23.
To be fair he has Tom Thibodeau as his coach. Rookies under Tom:
Jimmy Butler 359 total minutes (8.5 MPG only 42 GP)
MArquis Teague 8.2 MPG 48 GP
Tony Snell 16 terrible MPG 77 GP
Doug McDermott 8.2 MPG, 36 GP
Kris Dunn- 17MPG, 78 GP
Justin Patton- 4 minutes, 1 game.
 

Kliq

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Haliburton continues to crush it while Obi Toppin puts up another of his 4 pts 1 reb 0 ast specials (in 11 minutes). But it’s okay, Toppin is only 23.
Toppin is in a terrible situation. He's being used mostly as a 3 and being asked to mostly stand in the corner and shoot threes. Plus, he's buried in Thib's rotation and not getting the playing time to adjust to the NBA.
 

terrynever

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Doc has been using Thybulle for defense over Curry in fourth quarter lately. He blocked a Fox shot and fed Shake for a big 3 as Philly w3nt on a 10-0 run to go up 7. But it’s not over. Two minutes left. 76ers up 5.
 

terrynever

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Thybulle again forces Fox into a miss. Up 7 after an Embiid bucket. Fox gets 2 FTs. 34 points on 29 shots.
 

terrynever

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76ers turned on the D in second half, and Kings cooled off, too. Just 20 points in each quarter. Embiid finished with 25 and 17 plus 6 assists. Six guys in double figures. 119-111 final. 4th straight road win.

Kings made just 3 of last 22 attempts from deep.
 

HomeRunBaker

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To be fair he has Tom Thibodeau as his coach. Rookies under Tom:
Jimmy Butler 359 total minutes (8.5 MPG only 42 GP)
MArquis Teague 8.2 MPG 48 GP
Tony Snell 16 terrible MPG 77 GP
Doug McDermott 8.2 MPG, 36 GP
Kris Dunn- 17MPG, 78 GP
Justin Patton- 4 minutes, 1 game.
Immanuel Quickley puts this list to shame. Shame.
 

shoelace

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Somebody here scoffed the other day at the notion that PHX might be better than Boston. Not sure that's such a stretch.

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401267549
Jrue Holiday didn't play, so I'm not sure how meaningful a one point win at home is given how Milwaukee's roster is constructed. Phoenix hasn't really had the same issues with COVID-19 absences and such for their rotational players that Boston has had, which makes a huge difference especially in terms of defensive consistency and they've played an easier schedule.
 

128

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Didn't we beat the Bucks by one too? By that logic we're exactly as good as Phoenix.
I'm not basing it on a single result. The Pistons have beaten Brooklyn twice, but that doesn't mean they're the better team.

The Suns' starting backcourt of Chris Paul and Booker is better than anything the C's can counter with, at least while Kemba is in this funk; Ayton is a force at the 5; Mikal Bridges is a rising star; and Cam Johnson is the sniper we hope Nesmith will become. Obviously, PHX has yet to prove itself in the postseason, but it has a well-constructed and balanced roster.

The Suns have the fourth-best record in the West. Maybe it's a mirage, but I don't see a ton of weaknesses on that team. Also, the Suns were missing Saric and Crowder the other day, so it's not as if the C's were the only short-handed team on that court.

It's OK to admire other NBA teams, isn't it?
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Somebody here scoffed the other day at the notion that PHX might be better than Boston. Not sure that's such a stretch.

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401267549
Most power ratings I look at have Phoenix slightly ahead of Boston and I have them almost identical when at full strength. Today, without Smart’s end of game defense on Booker/switches, I have Phoenix ahead of the C’s.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I'm not basing it on one game. The Suns' starting backcourt of Chris Paul and Booker is better than anything the C's counter with, at least while Kemba is in this funk; Ayton is a force at the 5; and Mikal Bridges is a rising star. Obviously, PHX has yet to prove itself in the postseason, but I'm not sure what's not to like about its roster.

The Suns have the fourth-best record in the West. Maybe it's a mirage, but I don't see a ton of weaknesses on that team. Also, they were missing Saric and Crowder when they beat Boston the other day, so it's not as if the C's were the only short-handed team on that court.
There’s a ton to like, though if you twisted my arm I’d still take the Jays #1-2 in a draft among the two teams, both for this season and going forward (with Booker a close #3). Obviously the Suns have been the better team so far this season, if that’s the question.

Also: haven’t seen much of Jalen Smith, but reaching for him with Tyrese Haliburton staring them in the face feels like a potentially massive, franchise-stunting blunder. Who’s their backcourt mate for Booker when CP3 ages out in a couple years? Haliburton-Booker-Bridges-Ayton would have been an absolutely terrifying young core.
 

chilidawg

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I'm not basing it on a single result. The Pistons have beaten Brooklyn twice, but that doesn't mean they're the better team.

The Suns' starting backcourt of Chris Paul and Booker is better than anything the C's can counter with, at least while Kemba is in this funk; Ayton is a force at the 5; Mikal Bridges is a rising star; and Cam Johnson is the sniper we hope Nesmith will become. Obviously, PHX has yet to prove itself in the postseason, but it has a well-constructed and balanced roster.

The Suns have the fourth-best record in the West. Maybe it's a mirage, but I don't see a ton of weaknesses on that team. Also, the Suns were missing Saric and Crowder the other day, so it's not as if the C's were the only short-handed team on that court.

It's OK to admire other NBA teams, isn't it?
Well you did initially cite one box score result as your evidence. Thanks for making a coherent argument for your point.
 

128

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Well you did initially cite one box score result as your evidence. Thanks for making a coherent argument for your point.
Sorry for the confusion. I simply meant to offer the Suns' latest win as more proof of their emergence this season.

The C's have dealt with so many injuries in recent years that I've almost lost hope of ever seeing them at full strength.
 

shoelace

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There’s a ton to like, though if you twisted my arm I’d still take the Jays #1-2 in a draft among the two teams, both for this season and going forward (with Booker a close #3). Obviously the Suns have been the better team so far this season, if that’s the question.

Also: haven’t seen much of Jalen Smith, but reaching for him with Tyrese Haliburton staring them in the face feels like a potentially massive, franchise-stunting blunder. Who’s their backcourt mate for Booker when CP3 ages out in a couple years? Haliburton-Booker-Bridges-Ayton would have been an absolutely terrifying young core.
Agree with all of this. I suppose it depends on how we're defining better. If you think the Suns are better equipped to win more regular season games this season, then I think there's an argument, especially given the Celtics current status with injuries. I'm not sure how much, if any, meaning I ascribe to that. Especially during this funky season where some very talented teams have awful .500ish records, not just the Celtics.

If we're saying "better" in the sense of having better young talent and a better future? I think that's a stretch, precisely for the fact that SRN would take Tatum and Brown over Booker. I guess if you think Bridges has an All-NBA future, you may differ on that. That seems like an overreaction to this season.
 

128

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Agree with all of this. I suppose it depends on how we're defining better. If you think the Suns are better equipped to win more regular season games this season, then I think there's an argument, especially given the Celtics current status with injuries. I'm not sure how much, if any, meaning I ascribe to that. Especially during this funky season where some very talented teams have awful .500ish records, not just the Celtics.

If we're saying "better" in the sense of having better young talent and a better future? I think that's a stretch, precisely for the fact that SRN would take Tatum and Brown over Booker. I guess if you think Bridges has an All-NBA future, you may differ on that. That seems like an overreaction to this season.
Their roles aren't the same, but Brown and Booker are similarly talented, IMO, so that's pretty much a wash. In his second year, Ayton is averaging 14.1 points and 12.6 rebounds per game on a team that doesn't ask him to score much. That's a nice piece in the middle. Bridges is averaging 14.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 2.2 apg and shooting 40 percent from 3-point range. He's another nice piece. Chris Paul may not have many years left, but he's still damn good.

Clearly, if Kemba were to regain his All-NBA form and give Boston a third star, that would change things dramatically. For now, though, the ceiling for each team probably depends in large part on the supporting casts for their respective stars, and I give the edge there to PHX.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Suns have more depth but I'd always take the top heavy roster. Depth is easier to add.

PP is probably the 4th most valuable trade asset the Celtics have.
 

shoelace

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Their roles aren't the same, but Brown and Booker are similarly talented, IMO, so that's pretty much a wash.
Pretty much every metric and the eye test says that Booker is a significantly worse defender than Brown. And it's not like Brown is a great defender. Before the leap Jaylen took this year, I could see this, but now I think it's clear that Jaylen is better.

In his second year, Ayton is averaging 14.1 points and 12.6 rebounds per game on a team that doesn't ask him to score much. That's a nice piece in the middle. Bridges is averaging 14.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 2.2 apg and shooting 40 percent from 3-point range. He's another nice piece. Chris Paul may not have many years left, but he's still damn good.
I suppose the question with Ayton and Bridges is how much better they can get. If they're not All-Stars and not All-NBA players, then I don't really see their pathway to a championship. I agree that they have some good depth and will probably win 40-45 games this season. I just don't see them beating the Lakers, Clippers, or the Jazz in the playoffs, and it's not hard to imagine them losing to a healthy Portland or Denver team, and maybe even Golden State. Obviously things can change, players can break out, but I'm not seeing it right now.
 

Jimbodandy

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Pretty much every metric and the eye test says that Booker is a significantly worse defender than Brown. And it's not like Brown is a great defender. Before the leap Jaylen took this year, I could see this, but now I think it's clear that Jaylen is better.
While I agree with you, there will always be people who overvalue elite shot creation. It's a rare skill. And Booker also became efficient after his first couple of years, so the only knock on him is his really crappy defense. And defense remains hard to quantify imo.

Tl;dr; some people really don't care about defense all that much
 
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Kliq

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I've become interested in this free throw shooting race between Dame and Steph. Currently Dame has made 160 of 170 free throws, 94%. Steph has made 130 of 140 free throws, 93%. Who will end up with the better percentage? Each trip to the line brings an extra bit of nervy drama. Gallinari, CP3 and Kyrie are technically ahead of Dame right now, but they don't have even half as many attempts. Bradley Beal (155 of 175, 89%), DeMar DeRozan (141 of 158, 89%) and Trae Young (201 of 226, 89%) might be lurking.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Pretty much every metric and the eye test says that Booker is a significantly worse defender than Brown. And it's not like Brown is a great defender. Before the leap Jaylen took this year, I could see this, but now I think it's clear that Jaylen is better.
How is Bookers defense grading out in these metrics this season compared to priors?
 

shoelace

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How is Bookers defense grading out in these metrics this season compared to priors?
Better. DLEBRON has him at -1.34 this year, which is his best career mark. I think playing with Chris Paul has helped. So, not like the absolute bottom (Damian Lillard, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell are the bottom 3 in DLEBRON for 2020 thus far), but still very bad. On the same tier as Harden, basically.

But, you know these stats all have their limitations. The top guys are Myles Turner, Rudy Gobert and Clint Capela, who are all in the top 5 in block percentage. It seems unavoidable that these stats are going to return results that say that guys who get lots of blocks and lots of steals are great defenders. I realize on/off data is used as well, but still, Robert Williams has the best DLEBRON on the Celtics. Folks can make of that what they will. (I don't think the correct conclusion is that he is the best defender on the team).
 
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128

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Pretty much every metric and the eye test says that Booker is a significantly worse defender than Brown. And it's not like Brown is a great defender. Before the leap Jaylen took this year, I could see this, but now I think it's clear that Jaylen is better.



I suppose the question with Ayton and Bridges is how much better they can get. If they're not All-Stars and not All-NBA players, then I don't really see their pathway to a championship. I agree that they have some good depth and will probably win 40-45 games this season. I just don't see them beating the Lakers, Clippers, or the Jazz in the playoffs, and it's not hard to imagine them losing to a healthy Portland or Denver team, and maybe even Golden State. Obviously things can change, players can break out, but I'm not seeing it right now.
I'm not suggesting the Suns are serious NBA title contenders this season, but then I don't see Boston in that conversation either, unless things change dramatically for the better with Kemba.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Better. DLEBRON has him at -1.34 this year, which is his best career mark. I think playing with Chris Paul has helped. So, not like the absolute bottom (Damian Lillard, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell are the bottom 3 in DLEBRON for 2020 thus far), but still very bad. On the same tier as Harden, basically.

But, you know these stats all have their limitations. The top guys are Myles Turner, Rudy Gobert and Clint Capela, who are all in the top 5 in block percentage. It seems unavoidable that these stats are going to return results that say that guys who get lots of blocks and lots of steals are great defenders. I realize on/off data is used as well, but still, Robert Williams has the best DLEBRON on the Celtics. Folks can make of that what they will. (I don't think the correct conclusion is that he is the best defender on the team).
I’m surprised he doesn’t grade out much better between playing with Paul and at a much slower pace that eliminates many transition open looks. That sounds bad for his defensive case.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I've become interested in this free throw shooting race between Dame and Steph. Currently Dame has made 160 of 170 free throws, 94%. Steph has made 130 of 140 free throws, 93%. Who will end up with the better percentage? Each trip to the line brings an extra bit of nervy drama. Gallinari, CP3 and Kyrie are technically ahead of Dame right now, but they don't have even half as many attempts. Bradley Beal (155 of 175, 89%), DeMar DeRozan (141 of 158, 89%) and Trae Young (201 of 226, 89%) might be lurking.
Put your money on Steph, just cos he’s the best FT shooter ever (.907 career / .906 playoffs to Dame’s .891 career / .879 playoffs). But it’s probably pretty close to a coin flip, with the rare miss by either of them potentially swinging the balance. Could be a fun subplot at the end of the year, with CP3, Kyrie and others also vying for crown, as you note.

It’s pretty remarkable how similar Curry and Lillard have been in general this season. Per 36...

Curry 31.6 pts on .656 ts / 5.8 reb / 6.3 ast / 3.4 tov
Lillard 29.5 pts on .633 ts / 4.5 reb / 7.1 ast / 3.0 tov

Dame has logged more mpg (36.0 to 33.7) while Steph has played more games (25 to 22). Both have quasi single-handedly dragged their respective beaten-up teams to slightly-above .500 records. Steph is #2 in the league by RPM at +7.86, Dame #5 at +5.48. Their overall battle should also be fun to track, especially if they can lift their teams into the 4th/5th seed range where MVP becomes a semi-realistic possibility.

I guess LeBron, Jokic and Embiid are the current frontrunners?
 

Kliq

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Put your money on Steph, just cos he’s the best FT shooter ever (.907 career / .906 playoffs to Dame’s .891 career / .879 playoffs). But it’s probably pretty close to a coin flip, with the rare miss by either of them potentially swinging the balance. Could be a fun subplot at the end of the year, with CP3, Kyrie and others also vying for crown, as you note.

It’s pretty remarkable how similar Curry and Lillard have been in general this season. Per 36...

Curry 31.6 pts on .656 ts / 5.8 reb / 6.3 ast / 3.4 tov
Lillard 29.5 pts on .633 ts / 4.5 reb / 7.1 ast / 3.0 tov

Dame has logged more mpg (36.0 to 33.7) while Steph has played more games (25 to 22). Both have quasi single-handedly dragged their respective beaten-up teams to slightly-above .500 records. Steph is #2 in the league by RPM at +7.86, Dame #5 at +5.48. Their overall battle should also be fun to track, especially if they can lift their teams into the 4th/5th seed range where MVP becomes a semi-realistic possibility.

I guess LeBron, Jokic and Embiid are the current frontrunners?
I love looking at box scores, so it will be fun to scour them each night seeing if they missed a free throw. Dame will probably end up with a sizable number in more attempts, although I'd think his usage will go down a bit when CJM comes back. It's virtually impossible to shoot better than 90% from the line, which is where both guys tend to shoot, minus Steph's second year. I think the lack of noise/crowd behind the basket has probably increased the ability for these guys.

I don't really get the LeBron MVP hype. It was definitely a narrative heading into the year that he was going to try to win the MVP, after he proved himself to still be the best player in the NBA in the bubble, but his season so far, 25-8-8, is outstanding but not particularly dominant. He was shooting well-above his career average from three for start of this season, but is starting to come back to earth, so he might only average like, 23-24 ppg. If we won the award he would obviously deserve it, but it doesn't seem like a blow-away season for him.

Jokic, Dame and Steph are going to be in trouble because their teams probably won't be good enough to crack the MVP conversation, even if one of them ends up with the best statistical season. At this point I think Embiid stands the best chance at winning, even though I still think he is kind of a fraud; he's having a dominant season on both ends and the Sixers may end up with the #1 seed. Durant is also very much in the mix as well. Giannis won't get the right kind of attention because voters are tired of voting for him and he's in "let's see this guy prove it in the playoffs" category, but the Bucks could be the #1 seed again and he's averaging 28-11-5 and shooting 56% from the floor.
 

terrynever

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I've become interested in this free throw shooting race between Dame and Steph. Currently Dame has made 160 of 170 free throws, 94%. Steph has made 130 of 140 free throws, 93%. Who will end up with the better percentage? Each trip to the line brings an extra bit of nervy drama. Gallinari, CP3 and Kyrie are technically ahead of Dame right now, but they don't have even half as many attempts. Bradley Beal (155 of 175, 89%), DeMar DeRozan (141 of 158, 89%) and Trae Young (201 of 226, 89%) might be lurking.
I’ll take the Curry brothers in a parlay. Seth is 30-for-30 from the FT line. Been slumping lately from beyond the arc. Down to .507 after a battle with COVID. Seems better in the last two games.
 

Cellar-Door

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While I agree with you, there will always be people who overvalue elite shot creation. It's a rare skill. And Booker also became efficient after his first couple of years, so the only knock on him is his really crappy defense. And defense remains hard to quantify imo.

Tl;dr; some people really don't care about defense all that much
I don't think people overvalue elite shot creation. I think people overvalue defense from stars. Give me a star that can score in the playoffs and unless he's Trae Young/IT bad on D he's the most valuable asset in the league. I'll take Steph over Klay any day. I'll take Harden over Siakam, etc. etc. Elite scoring is the hardest thing to find and you can build a team to mitigate all but the worst defenders. It's much harder to piece together offense, particularly in the playoffs. Also... a lot of high volume stars can play better D in short bursts in the playoffs and that's all you need.
 

Jimbodandy

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I don't think people overvalue elite shot creation. I think people overvalue defense from stars. Give me a star that can score in the playoffs and unless he's Trae Young/IT bad on D he's the most valuable asset in the league. I'll take Steph over Klay any day. I'll take Harden over Siakam, etc. etc. Elite scoring is the hardest thing to find and you can build a team to mitigate all but the worst defenders. It's much harder to piece together offense, particularly in the playoffs. Also... a lot of high volume stars can play better D in short bursts in the playoffs and that's all you need.
Even if Curry were a trash defender (which he wasn't), we're still talking about all time greats in Curry/Harden. Who's saying that they'd rather have a mediocre two-way player than all-time elite scoring talent?

I hope that this iteration of the Celtics ends up playing a team of Devin Bookers and Jordan Clarksons in the finals. Because a team of Kawhis and Lebrons would be fucking murder. Because defense matters too.
 

Cellar-Door

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Even if Curry were a trash defender (which he wasn't), we're still talking about all time greats in Curry/Harden. Who's saying that they'd rather have a mediocre two-way player than all-time elite scoring talent?

I hope that this iteration of the Celtics ends up playing a team of Devin Bookers and Jordan Clarksons in the finals. Because a team of Kawhis and Lebrons would be fucking murder. Because defense matters too.
That's generally the point though (Curry isn't that much better a defender than current Booker), ELITE shot creation is worth it. I compared Curry to Klay, a top defender who is also one of the best shooters in history, he's not a mediocre 2 way player. Yet for all that he's an elite shooter and a top defender, would anyone take him over the significantly worse defender Curry... nope because Curry can not only shoot like Klay, he can also create his shot.

Also.. the whole point of elite scorers is that it lets you not have Jordan Clarkson. You can prioritize defense in your role players if you have elite offensive stars. Where if you have good offensive stars who are more balanced, you need scoring from the rest.

Lebron is the best of all time because he's an elite shot creator who is also when he tries an elite defender (same with Durant).
 

Jimbodandy

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That's generally the point though (Curry isn't that much better a defender than current Booker), ELITE shot creation is worth it. I compared Curry to Klay, a top defender who is also one of the best shooters in history, he's not a mediocre 2 way player. Yet for all that he's an elite shooter and a top defender, would anyone take him over the significantly worse defender Curry... nope because Curry can not only shoot like Klay, he can also create his shot.

Also.. the whole point of elite scorers is that it lets you not have Jordan Clarkson. You can prioritize defense in your role players if you have elite offensive stars. Where if you have good offensive stars who are more balanced, you need scoring from the rest.

Lebron is the best of all time because he's an elite shot creator who is also when he tries an elite defender (same with Durant).
Booker is much worse than peak Curry at everything.

Serious question, who's the last team fronted by a rotten defending volume scorer? Elite shot creators aren't the most valuable assets in the league. Elite shot creators who aren't a black hole on defense are. You don't have to be a plus defender like Durant or Lebron, but not totally sucking at one end has huge value. And even in 2021 we're still having conversations like there's two types of defensive players--DPOY conversation guys, and everyone else. And if you're not a DPOY guy, then who gives a shit if you give back as much on the other end or if you hold your own.

Tomato, tomahto, I guess. I think that you undervalue defense. You think that I overvalue it.