2020-2021 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Murderer's Crow

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Dodgers signing DJL won't matter to me. For that to matter, first we have to make it the World Series, which means that Cashman did just fine without DJL, and then we have to face the Dodgers and then DJL has to have a great series. Losing DJL surely would suck, but I don't love paying him MVP money.
 

jon abbey

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On a scale of 1-10, how worried are you that the Dodgers give Lemahieu whatever he wants after all the Padres moves?
0, it makes no sense for them or the Mets to beat the Yankee offer of at least 4/80. The Blue Jays I think are the only legitimate competition, they are desperate to make a major move and are in on every big name remaining.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I would think a NY fan's fear would be the Mets signing Springer. Because with the Blue Jays trying to buy a big time player that's one more off the board, and other than Bauer, it's basically just DJL left, yes?
Toronto will have to beat NY's offer by quite a bit, and I'd gather if Toronto is desperate, maybe they will.
 

jon abbey

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Realmuto too, TOR is talking about signing him and then trading a young catcher or two.

Also TOR might trade for Lindor, they seem to be in on everything currently.
 

jon abbey

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There were rumors a few months ago that Tanaka's old Japanese team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, were offering him a lot of money to come back, and it has long been known that Tanaka wants to end his career there. Today there is a report that says that it will likely be NY or Rakuten for Tanaka, not really surprising but we haven't seen it spelled out this specifically previously this winter:

"There’s a good chance that Tanaka will either re-sign with the Yankees or play in Japan next season for his old Pacific League team, a source close to the pitcher told NJ Advance Media. The source, who didn’t want his name made public, added that Tanaka wants to return to the Yankees and isn’t interested in playing for a team that won’t contend next season, regardless of money. The source added that it’s unlikely Tanaka will sign with the Angels, who already have fellow Japanese star Shohei Ohtani, a pitcher/designated hitter. Also, the source stated Tanaka has had plans for years to end his playing career with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, his club from 2007-13. Tanaka was good to very good in five of his seven seasons with the Yankees, going 78-46 and a 3.74 ERA pitching with a $155-million contract from 2014-20. Tanaka’s average salary in his last pact surpassed $22M. If he returns to the Yanks, he’ll probably to have to settle for a one- or two-year deal for around $12M annually tops."

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2020/12/mlb-rumors-yankees-or-japan-for-masahiro-tanaka-trevor-bauer-wants-gerrit-cole-coin-george-springer-update.html
 

jon abbey

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It depends what the other options are, I would rather roll the dice on Kluber at the same price since I think NY needs to add a guy or two with the potential upside to be a #2 behind Cole, and I'm not sure Tanaka has that in him anymore.
 

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It depends what the other options are, I would rather roll the dice on Kluber at the same price since I think NY needs to add a guy or two with the potential upside to be a #2 behind Cole, and I'm not sure Tanaka has that in him anymore.
I agree with that. If the Yankees can do better, they should. Slotting (and paying) Tanaka in as the #4 starter adds some good depth, but doesn't change the need for a higher tier guy behind Cole, which I think they would still be trying to do. Or at least I hope so.

I think a Tanaka move would speak more toward some uncertainty about what they can expect, both in innings and in quality from Severino, German and all other young guys. Injury recovery, long suspension, relative inexperience, some innings limitations, etc, this rotation could be like building a plane while it is trying to fly.

Lots of exciting potential, but it is going to a rough flight for a team expecting to compete.
 

jon abbey

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The thing is they have all of this young pitching on the 40 man, they need to either start to give them more chances or move them. Obviously not all of them are going to be ready immediately, but I am very envious of the way that the Astros developed their young pitching last year (admittedly mostly out of necessity because of injury). Clarke Schmidt will be 25 in February, we still have almost no info on whether he can help NY or not. Also the season will likely be shorter than 162 games, probably more towards 120-130, so that means less innings for kids to cover and also less games played before Severino is hopefully back.

Anyway, I still trust Cashman and am looking forward to seeing what he does here. As I said here not too long ago, I think NY has a rare chance this offseason to both go for it and preserve their top prospect core, but it would mean pushing the payroll to a level Hal might not sign off on ($240M or so). I would like to sign Kluber and trade for Musgrove, but for me Garcia and Schmidt and Medina and maybe Gil would all be off-limits in that deal, but I think NY has plenty of pitchers in the tier below that to pull off that deal if they want.
 

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I'm looking forward to seeing what Cashman does with some of that prospect depth too. That he hasn't done something significant yet is a bit of a surprise to me, but if the only offers he's getting are his top tier prospects for guys who don't move the needle, I'm glad he's being patient.
 

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The thing is they have all of this young pitching on the 40 man, they need to either start to give them more chances or move them. Obviously not all of them are going to be ready immediately, but I am very envious of the way that the Astros developed their young pitching last year (admittedly mostly out of necessity because of injury). Clarke Schmidt will be 25 in February, we still have almost no info on whether he can help NY or not. Also the season will likely be shorter than 162 games, probably more towards 120-130, so that means less innings for kids to cover and also less games played before Severino is hopefully back.

Anyway, I still trust Cashman and am looking forward to seeing what he does here. As I said here not too long ago, I think NY has a rare chance this offseason to both go for it and preserve their top prospect core, but it would mean pushing the payroll to a level Hal might not sign off on ($240M or so). I would like to sign Kluber and trade for Musgrove, but for me Garcia and Schmidt and Medina and maybe Gil would all be off-limits in that deal, but I think NY has plenty of pitchers in the tier below that to pull off that deal if they want.
What is Cashman’s performance record on acquiring starting pitcher or developing it? I always thought that was just an average part of his skill set.
 

jon abbey

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What is Cashman’s performance record on acquiring starting pitcher or developing it? I always thought that was just an average part of his skill set.
I mean, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn both were top 10 pitchers in all of MLB after he traded for them, but unfortunately for NY, it was also after they left NY.
 

terrynever

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I mean, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn both were top 10 pitchers in all of MLB after he traded for them, but unfortunately for NY, it was also after they left NY.
I am trying to recall when NY became a tough place for proven pitchers. Ed Whitson comes to mind. In the dynasty years, players came to NY and fit into the machine. Maybe the big yard of the original YS helped pitchers. And the cozy new YS definitely hurts modern pitchers.
 

jon abbey

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Larry Rothschild IMO was a big part of the problem, a top-notch pitching coach might have made the difference in some cases. Amusingly he is somehow now the Padres pitching coach.
 

jon abbey

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NY fans still don't know much about Brooks Kriske, who has stuck as a depth reliever at the back of the 40 man for a second season now, so this tidbit today was interesting:

"Gil may have second-best fastball in the Yankees’ organization, just behind righthander Brooks Kriske’s, which has a rising effect similar to Chad Green’s and touched 98 mph at the alternate site, Briend said."

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/luis-gils-slider-opened-eyes-at-alt-site/
I thought my man Medina was ahead of both of them, but I did not realize Kriske was in that ballpark.
 

jon abbey

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Yankees make a small trade, getting OF Greg Allen from the Padres for minor league pitcher James Reeves. Allen was DFAd by the Padres last week, and he's out of options. Strange deal, honestly.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Very odd. That's not really a solid replacement for Gardner, if that was the idea. But I guess he can defend Yankee LF ok?
 

jon abbey

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Very odd. That's not really a solid replacement for Gardner, if that was the idea. But I guess he can defend Yankee LF ok?
I think it maybe means Clint Frazier is more likely to be traded? Even without Gardner, NY has Judge, Hicks, Frazier and Tauchman, plus Stanton.
 

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It does sound like the kind of move to make in advance of another trade. Frazier makes some sense. He recovered some value after improving defensively. Maybe now is the time to cash that chip.
 

jon abbey

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Also I didn't talk about it here yet, I don't think, but Clint's defensive numbers in LF were pretty bad again last year. He was nominated for a Gold Glove in RF, where he played the bulk of the time, but that Gold Glove nomination shouldn't fool us into thinking he is a solid defensive LF.

That being said, his bat looks great, and his presence is some protection against Judge leaving after 2022, since he (Clint) is under contract through 2024. Maybe they figure Jasson Dominguez will be ready by then... :)
 

jon abbey

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NY with another minor league signing today, SP Jhoulys Chacín. He was really good in 2018 for the Brewers, two scoreless playoff outings even, 10.1 combined, and then unusably awful in 2019 for MIL and then BOS, and then only got a few innings for ATL last year. I thought this was interesting though:

Jhoulys Chacín: 33 years old (today), 20.0 career bWAR, 1324 IP
James Paxton: 32 years old, 12.9 career bWAR, 753 IP
Masahiro Tanaka: 32 years old, 17.5 career bWAR, 1054 IP
JA Happ: 38 years old, 22.9 career bWAR, 1741 IP
 

EvilEmpire

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As always, I hope the scouts & analytics folks identified something they think they can fix.

Low risk moves are always interesting to me, even though they usually turn out to be nothing special.
 

jon abbey

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I am less optimistic about those guys this year for NY since in normal (recent) seasons, one of their big strengths is in-person scouting, at every level, and in 2020 of course there was almost none of that.

But for Chacin, I did think it was interesting that in an offseason where everyone is saying that NY needs more veteran innings from their rotation, Chacin has that many more career innings than Paxton and Tanaka at almost the same age.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I am less optimistic about those guys this year for NY since in normal (recent) seasons, one of their big strengths is in-person scouting, at every level, and in 2020 of course there was almost none of that.

But for Chacin, I did think it was interesting that in an offseason where everyone is saying that NY needs more veteran innings from their rotation, Chacin has that many more career innings than Paxton and Tanaka at almost the same age.
He doesn’t really have more innings than Tanaka, though, if you take Tanaka‘s career in Japan into account. (Paxton, yes, because his biggest knock is being perpetually hurt.) But I’d be fine if NY just decides to give Tanaka’s rotation spot to Chacin!
 

jon abbey

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Let’s see the price and not thrilled about another year of Gleyber at SS but basically what Terry said.

Now get Kluber.
 

chawson

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Do you see any significance with them announcing this today? Assuming it's at least DJM's reported ask of 4/$84M, does that leave them around $14M under the luxury tax threshold barring other moves?

I'm trying to analyze this through a Kluberwatch lens. Maybe Cashman was informed he's signing elsewhere so he sealed the deal on DJM?
 

jon abbey

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Do you see any significance with them announcing this today? Assuming it's at least DJM's reported ask of 4/$84M, does that leave them around $14M under the luxury tax threshold barring other moves?

I'm trying to analyze this through a Kluberwatch lens. Maybe Cashman was informed he's signing elsewhere so he sealed the deal on DJM?
They haven't announced anything yet, and if anything, I think locking down a AAV on DJ would let them know how much they have left for Kluber. Wishful thinking from both of us, we will see in the next day or two, I think.
 

jon abbey

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The rumor on DJ right now is 6/90, shocking length but obviously trying to bring down the AAV.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, NY got hurt by the international signing changes this year, they lost #8 Galiz to the Dodgers after MLB said no one could trade for extra int'l money this year.

Next year is their big move here though, as they are connected to the Lindor-like #1 prospect Roderick Arias, Jasson Dominguez's buddy.
 

jon abbey

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Do you see any significance with them announcing this today? Assuming it's at least DJM's reported ask of 4/$84M, does that leave them around $14M under the luxury tax threshold barring other moves?

I'm trying to analyze this through a Kluberwatch lens. Maybe Cashman was informed he's signing elsewhere so he sealed the deal on DJM?
I think actually the more likely ripple effect is that now NY is definitely out on the current crop of shortstops: Semien, Gregorius, Simmons, so if BOS is genuinely interested in Semien for 2B and are the high bidders there, that may happen more quickly now.
 

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Love 6/90 and that AAV. Even if he fades towards the end, managing that contract should be no big deal for the Yankees. And DJ's enough of a pro that barring injury, I think he'll still be productive at the end, though maybe with less defensive flexibility.

Happy day. Now find some pitching. And get Gleyber some more reps at SS.
 
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jon abbey

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NY is hoping that DJ is Paul Molitor v 2.0, 28.2 bWAR for his age 32-37 seasons (around 4.6 per year).

Molitor had 11.2 bWAR in his age 30/31 seasons combined (1233 PAs), LeMahieu had 8.9 (871 PAs with the shortened 2020).
 

chawson

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I think actually the more likely ripple effect is that now NY is definitely out on the current crop of shortstops: Semien, Gregorius, Simmons, so if BOS is genuinely interested in Semien for 2B and are the high bidders there, that may happen more quickly now.
That makes sense too. The 6/90 deal makes for a reasonable AAV which mostly unravels my wishful thinking on Kluber stuff. Looks like they have about $20M left to play with.
 

jon abbey

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NY still needs to clear 40 man space to add people, Allen is disposable (DJ can get his spot) but maybe NY could move a couple of young pitching prospects (Vizcaino/Gomez?) plus one of their ultra-talented teenage position players for Joe Musgrove, and then if they could add Kluber too, they'd be quite loaded.
 

jon abbey

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If NY could sign Kluber and trade for Musgrove...

Cole
Kluber
Musgrove
Montgomery
German

depth: Garcia/Schmidt/King (assuming none move in the Musgrove deal)
(Severino, back late in the season)

Loaisiga
Nelson
Cessa
Kriske
Ottavino
Green
Britton
Chapman

LeMahieu 2B
Judge RF
Stanton DH
Hicks CF
Voit 1B
Torres SS
Urshela 3B
Frazier LF
Sanchez C

bench: Higashioka, Tauchman, Ford, Wade (Andujar, Estrada)

That is a damn good team, especially if any of the young pitching blossoms.
 

EvilEmpire

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I like it, especially the pitching.

Not really thrilled with Frazier in that big LF, but you have to assume risk somewhere and the bat is nice.
 

jon abbey

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Also with DJ locked up long-term at 2B and NY seemingly resetting their tax rate again, this becomes an immense year for Gleyber. He is under contract through 2024 but will start to get pricier via arb soon, and next winter Lindor and Story and Seager and Correa and Baez are all still scheduled to be FAs.