2020 Bucs: TB12 in TB20 - How Far Do They Go?

Assuming the 2020 season is actually played, how far do you think the TB12 led Bucs will go?

  • Win SB

  • Play in SB

  • Make it to the NFCCG

  • Make playoffs

  • Contend but no playoffs (~6-8 wins)

  • Blow chunks (<6 wins)


Results are only viewable after voting.

Seels

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Jul 20, 2005
3,117
NH
Stidham could lead this team to 9-7 easily. No chance they finish under .500.
Their bad offense got worse, their defense is due to regress and lost key pieces.

I trust Belichick without a doubt. But the team has been due a roster reset for a bit. There's a reason guys like Miguel and Lazar are discussing possible White cuts or Gilmore trades. Brady and Gronk hid a lot of issues on the roster. I don't worry long term. But I don't see a point to committing capital to a transition year.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
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Oct 31, 2013
28,797
[
For context, TB's schedule:

Home
Falcons W
Panthers W
Saints W
Packers L
Vikings L
Chiefs L
Chargers W
Rams W

Away
Falcons W
Panthers W
Saints L
Bears L
Broncos L
Lions L
Giants W
Raiders L


8-8
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
8,795
Here were the top 10 scoring defense teams last year, and their overall records:

1. NE: 12-5
2. Buf: 10-6
3. Bal: 14-2
4. Chi: 8-8
5. Min: 10-6
6. Pit: 8-8
7. KC: 12-4
8. SF: 13-3
9. GB: 13-3
10. Den: 7-9

Many of those teams had very blech offenses - Den (#27 scoring offense), Chi (#28), Pit (#26), Buf (#22), GB (#15).

Long story short: If the Pats field a top-10 scoring defense, they have a good chance of being at least 8-8, almost regardless of how bad their offense is.
 
Aug 20, 2017
1,836
Portland
They were a 4-5 team after Week 8 last year and they are much worse on paper. If not for faith in Belichick we'd be talking about whether we might get a top-5 pick.
Yeah, most of that was on Brady throwing ducks the last half of a season. BB will do what he always does and replace KVN and Collins at a quarter of the price.
 

heavyde050

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Nov 17, 2006
6,767
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Yeah, most of that was on Brady throwing ducks the last half of a season. BB will do what he always does and replace KVN and Collins at a quarter of the price.
It was not mostly on Brady throwing ducks. It was on the entire offense for being bad and the defense for not being as good in the first half. The offense was the biggest culprit, but the defense deserves some blame for some of the losses (i.e., Ravens, Texans, and Miami).
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
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Apr 23, 2010
1,768
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10-6, wildcard, first round loss. I don’t think they’re as loaded around TB as some do, and I think the decline we saw in him last year wasn’t completely attributable to the weak supporting cast. Plus, Arians is no BB. He’ll have a decent, respectable end to his career down there, but I doubt there’ll be another super bowl for him.
 

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
1,072
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It was not mostly on Brady throwing ducks. It was on the entire offense for being bad and the defense for not being as good in the first half. The offense was the biggest culprit, but the defense deserves some blame for some of the losses (i.e., Ravens, Texans, and Miami).
Have to agree with this. If the defense actually could have stopped FitzMagic on that last drive in Miami, they'd have gotten the bye, recharged, and maybe done something slightly more useful in the playoffs.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Have to agree with this. If the defense actually could have stopped FitzMagic on that last drive in Miami, they'd have gotten the bye, recharged, and maybe done something slightly more useful in the playoffs.
At a minimum, they robbed us of an epic rematch with KC.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
11,191
I'm voting make playoffs, beat some crappy NFC East team (or maybe the 49'ers) in the playoffs, lose a close one after that.
 

Super Nomario

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Nov 5, 2000
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I said, "Make it to the NFCCG." I have questions about all of the top contenders in the NFC, more or less; you can put TB in a bag with NO, SF, GB, maybe one or two others, and it won't really surprise me how the order shakes out among those squads.

It was not mostly on Brady throwing ducks. It was on the entire offense for being bad and the defense for not being as good in the first half. The offense was the biggest culprit, but the defense deserves some blame for some of the losses (i.e., Ravens, Texans, and Miami).
Defensive regression for 2020 is not hard to fathom because we really did see it down the stretch last year. They were far and away the best D in the league through 8 weeks and something like the eighth-best defense thereafter. Really, it was almost the same unit as 2018 when they were good-but-not-great - they gained Collins but lost Flowers, that was about it. They've gotten worse, losing Van Noy and Collins and Harmon, but I think they'll settle into good-but-not-great again defensively, which I don't think is going to be good enough with what they're projecting to run out on offense.
 

Soxy

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Dec 1, 2008
5,388
I said make the playoffs. It's Tom fucking Brady, I'll at least give him that.

But I honestly have no clue how this will play out, and I don't think I'd be surprised by any outcome. This could be a sad Namath thing, a respectable but didn't quite get there Montana thing, or a did it in a second city Manning thing. None would surprise me.

The worst outcome, by far, would be Brady just completely sucking and falling off of a cliff. I don't want to see that in any uniform. That would just be sad to watch.
 

Trautwein's Degree

a Connecticut bicycle attorney in General Motor's
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Jul 20, 2005
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Have to agree with this. If the defense actually could have stopped FitzMagic on that last drive in Miami, they'd have gotten the bye, recharged, and maybe done something slightly more useful in the playoffs.
There's no way they could have regrouped. I was at the Miami game in the last row with another SoSHer. The receivers had absolutely zero separation from Miami defenders. When they took away Edelman there was nowhere for Brady to throw. It was very clear from being up that high. Miami wasn't even getting pressure on Brady, They didn't have to. We left the game knowing they would lose their next game no matter the opponent.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
8,795
Wow this just....sucks. The 49ers at least had Steve Young stepping in. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers stepping in. We have Jarrett Stidham stepping in.

But more to the point.... Brady has meant far more to the Patriots than Montana did for the 49ers and Favre did for Green Bay. So seeing him go is just...not right.

Good luck Tom. You earned your free agency, and you made your decision. Wish you nothing but the best. Now I hope that Stidham turns out to be really good.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
8,795
One thing is for sure...when he comes back for that one day as a Patriot and gets inducted into the Pats' HOF, the cheers for Brady will be thunderous. As they should be.
 

TheRealness

Don't make him go all Lucic on your ash
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Feb 8, 2006
11,078
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Anyone know what the actual terms are? I can see upthread it’s a two year deal, but it’s a bit odd to me that no one seems to have an idea of what the money is.
 

CreedBratton

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Dec 6, 2009
3,279
One thing is for sure...when he comes back for that one day as a Patriot and gets inducted into the Pats' HOF, the cheers for Brady will be thunderous. As they should be.
Do they do that in football? The one day thing? Happens lots in NBA, but can’t recall it ever happening in the NFL.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Apr 7, 2006
6,007
Nashua, NH
Wow this just....sucks. The 49ers at least had Steve Young stepping in. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers stepping in. We have Jarrett Stidham stepping in.
You know how spoiled we've been? We already had someone step in after a great career for our original QB...it just happened to be the same QB.

Montana + Young in SF:

With team: 1979 - 1999 (21 years)
Full time starter: 1981 - 1998 (18 years)
Games started: 263
Record: 191-72
Playoff Game Started: 33
Playoff Record: 22-11
Championships: 5

Brady in NE:

With team: 2000 - 2019 (20 years)
Full time starter: 2001 - 2007, 2009-2019 (18 years)
Games started: 283
Record: 219-64
Playoff Game Started: 41
Playoff Record: 30-11
Championships: 6
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
40,831
Do they do that in football? The one day thing? Happens lots in NBA, but can’t recall it ever happening in the NFL.
Yep.


 

heavyde050

Member
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Nov 17, 2006
6,767
San Francisco
You know how spoiled we've been? We already had someone step in after a great career for our original QB...it just happened to be the same QB.

Montana + Young in SF:

With team: 1979 - 1999 (21 years)
Full time starter: 1981 - 1998 (18 years)
Games started: 263
Record: 191-72
Playoff Game Started: 33
Playoff Record: 22-11
Championships: 5

Brady in NE:

With team: 2000 - 2019 (20 years)
Full time starter: 2001 - 2007, 2009-2019 (18 years)
Games started: 283
Record: 219-64
Playoff Game Started: 41
Playoff Record: 30-11
Championships: 6
This post needs a lot love. It is so true.
 

RIFan

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Jul 19, 2005
2,180
Blackstone MA
I am highly skeptical that this won't end very very badly for Brady. The difference maker has always been receivers ability to run precise routes so that Brady can anticipate and throw to the spot he expects them to be. When a quarterback throws 30 picks it's obviously mostly on him, but it gives me a lot of concern that the receivers were a contributing factor to Winston's picks. The margin for error in today's league is really small on contested balls. Receivers rounding off routes, not driving back to the ball etc result in picks as much as the quarterback not being precise. A new offense and not having the offseason reps with his receivers isn't going to help matters. I'm sure Brady will put in the work, but if he doesn't have someone like Edelman that has his 100% trust it's going to be a tough road and he'll be watching the the playoffs from home. I think that is why the situation with AB is huge. He was the perfect receiver for Brady (at least from an on the field perspective.) If it somehow works out with AB, I can see playoffs, otherwise I'd be less than confident.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
24,257
Hingham, MA
I am highly skeptical that this won't end very very badly for Brady. The difference maker has always been receivers ability to run precise routes so that Brady can anticipate and throw to the spot he expects them to be. When a quarterback throws 30 picks it's obviously mostly on him, but it gives me a lot of concern that the receivers were a contributing factor to Winston's picks. The margin for error in today's league is really small on contested balls. Receivers rounding off routes, not driving back to the ball etc result in picks as much as the quarterback not being precise. A new offense and not having the offseason reps with his receivers isn't going to help matters. I'm sure Brady will put in the work, but if he doesn't have someone like Edelman that has his 100% trust it's going to be a tough road and he'll be watching the the playoffs from home. I think that is why the situation with AB is huge. He was the perfect receiver for Brady (at least from an on the field perspective.) If it somehow works out with AB, I can see playoffs, otherwise I'd be less than confident.
I am thinking along these lines as well. As we know you never bet against the man, but I don't think it ends well at all
 

Mooch

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Jul 15, 2005
1,648
Per Schefter:

Tom Brady's contract details with Tampa, sources tell ESPN: 2 years, $50 million deal, all guaranteed, that also includes another $9 million in incentives - $4.5 million in incentives per year.
 

Van Everyman

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Apr 30, 2009
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It's impossible to know because we've never seen Brady, outside of college, play for another coach in another system. In that sense, it will be interesting. We've seen hints that Brady can struggle with receivers who simply run routes and depend on their athleticism over their ability to read defenses. But I'm not entirely sure that isn't overblown.

What we do know is that Brady will be as motivated as he's been at any point during his career. Whether that, his current ability and his ability to adapt to a new system are enough is the question.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,768
from the wilds of western ma
I’m largely indifferent to how he plays down there, and will focus my attention fully on the Pats. Love and appreciate everything he did here, but can’t say I’m actively rooting for him to light it up. But what I really hope doesn’t happen, is some kind of injury that forces him out of the game. That would really make me sad. Sub-par play wouldn’t taint anything he’s already accomplished, IMO.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
32,721
Stidham could lead this team to 9-7 easily. No chance they finish under .500.
I think that is WILDLY optimistic. I don't think the Pats win 6 games this year, and frankly, I don't think they want to, which is one of the reasons they moved on from Brady.

Here is what I see next year:

At Buffalo: Loss
At Houston: Loss
At KC: Loss
At Chargers: Win/Loss
At Rams: Loss
At Miami: Loss (because it always is)
At Jets: Win
At Seattle: Loss

Vs. Buffalo: Loss
Vs. Miami: Win
Vs. Jets: Win
Vs. Denver: Win/Loss
Vs. Raiders: Win/Loss
Vs. Arizona: Win
Vs. San Fran: Loss
Vs. Ravens: Loss

I see literally only 4 games you can put in the win column immediately (and I think we now underestimating Miami and the Jets, who both had better records than the Pats in the 2nd half of last year), and 3 games that are toss ups.

I think they lose the remaining schedule by an average of 10 points per game.

When you throw in the travel that is going to take place with that schedule, its a fucking minefield. Dumping Brady now was the NFL equivalent of tanking, and it's the only reason I'm not upset. I don't think they would have gone 9-7 next year with that schedule even with Brady, because they couldn't give him any weapons. Stidham? It's going to be ugly.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
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Dec 12, 2007
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With that deal, Brady would have cost the Pats somewhere around 40 mil against the cap, depending on if incentives are LTBE. Just not at all feasible.
 

RoyHobbs

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Dec 13, 2005
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Pg. 35 of "Win it For"
Thanks for the joy, Tom, but the dude lives in a bubble -- "I know so many of you are full of fear, losing your income, and not able to pay your bills, but here I am signing my new $50 million contract."
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
29,053
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Maybe, but would TB really franchise him at age 45 or whatever for like $28M?
No way, which is why it is so ballsy. He seems to be thinking it is possible he will play even beyond the age of 45. He is either delusional or amazing.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
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No doubt in my mind he was simply ready for a change.
Look at the smile in that picture. That's the look of a little kid opening a present on Christmas ... or Navin Johnson holding the new phonebook
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
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Jun 27, 2006
20,123
South Korea
Thanks for the joy, Tom, but the dude lives in a bubble -- "I know so many of you are full of fear, losing your income, and not able to pay your bills, but here I am signing my new $50 million contract."
Say wut? Should he have taken a $5 million contract because of the coronavirus situation? I say good for Tom. That contract has nothing to do with any "bubble".
 

Harry Hooper

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I’m largely indifferent to how he plays down there, and will focus my attention fully on the Pats. Love and appreciate everything he did here, but can’t say I’m actively rooting for him to light it up. But what I really hope doesn’t happen, is some kind of injury that forces him out of the game. That would really make me sad. Sub-par play wouldn’t taint anything he’s already accomplished, IMO.

Imagine this scenario, no NFL season in 2020 and Brady ends his career with 1 tacked on non-Pats season in 2021?