2020 Gronk Watch: Gronkmania

[Cellar-Door]

I'm sorry. Neither Gronk, nor TB had any leverage. Leak out that Gronk is looking to move to TB - but the Pats are looking for a better deal than swapping 4th and 7th round picks.. and ALL of the pressure if on TB. What - are they building for the future?

What pressure? If you mean from fans... I mean, only truly badly run franchises make decisions based on that. The pressure to the extent there is any on TB was that they probably want it done before the draft so they can trade OJ Howard for a pick. But that doesn't really change valuation much, maybe why they took a 7th instead of a 6th, or if they gave up the better 4th (we don't know which one yet). On the other hand the Patriots also want the deal done quick, because a pick int his draft is better than a future pick

 

[E5 Yaz]

I'm sorry. Neither Gronk, nor TB had any leverage. Leak out that Gronk is looking to move to TB - but the Pats are looking for a better deal than swapping 4th and 7th round picks.. and ALL of the pressure if on TB. What - are they building for the future?

Yeah, this is backwards.

Gronk was only coming back for one team. So, the Pats could have no Gronk and a 4th-rounder ... or no Gronk and the picks they already had. As has been said, it was probably a 5th before the Patriots added the 7th-rounder

 

[Seels]

Well, I guess can't stay gold forever.

I do wish Belichick just blew it up though. No point in keeping guys like Gilmore now.

 

[Euclis20]

I'm sorry. Neither Gronk, nor TB had any leverage. Leak out that Gronk is looking to move to TB - but the Pats are looking for a better deal than swapping 4th and 7th round picks.. and ALL of the pressure if on TB. What - are they building for the future?

In order for the Pats to have leverage there needed to be another team that they could trade Gronk to, or Gronk playing for the Pats in 2020 had to be an actual possibility. Additionally, Tampa already has Brady (imagine if this had been a condition of him signing with them?) and they already have a serviceable tight end. If the price got too high they could walk away just fine. On the other hand if the Pats had walked, they would have given up a mid round pick and had no assets to show for it.

The Pats had very, very little leverage here. Once you get past the rough part of trading a HOF'er who had a super bowl winning catch just 15 months ago, this was a pretty good move.

 

[Hector Salamanca]

Well, I guess can't stay gold forever.

I do wish Belichick just blew it up though. No point in keeping guys like Gilmore now.

How does this make any difference for a total blow-up right now? Gronk wasn't playing for the Pats this year.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Yeah, this is backwards.

Gronk was only coming back for one team. So, the Pats could have no Gronk and a 4th-rounder ... or no Gronk and the picks they already had. As has been said, it was probably a 5th before the Patriots added the 7th-rounder

And just to add to this, just because you can screw the other side doesn't mean you should. The Pats may want to deal with TB again in the near future.

 

[Captaincoop]

This little addendum has me looking forward even moreso to Belichick lighting the NFL world on fire one last time.

 

[Seels]

No, he wasn't. But it's clear that there's a possibility where he and Brady are still on this team.

I'm just frustrated. The Antonio Brown pickup was dumb as shit when it happened and is now going to cost them cap space for two seasons while we watch the two best players in the franchises history leave to Tampa.

 

[jsinger121]

No, he wasn't. But it's clear that there's a possibility where he and Brady are still on this team.

I'm just frustrated. The Antonio Brown pickup was dumb as shit when it happened and is now going to cost them cap space for two seasons while we watch the two best players in the franchises history leave to Tampa.

Neither wanted to play for BB anymore. I’d rather keep Bill and get the rebuild started than hang on to an aging dynasty.

 

[Seels]

Neither wanted to play for BB anymore. I’d rather keep Bill and get the rebuild started than hang on to an aging dynasty.

Yes that's the original point I made. Tear it down, no point in having guys who won't be on the next winning team playing on a transition team.

 

[Hector Salamanca]

Yes that's the original point I made. Tear it down, no point in having guys who won't be on the next winning team playing on a transition team.

Yeah, that's an understandable take. Won't argue on being frustrated right now.

 

[The Social Chair]

Yes that's the original point I made. Tear it down, no point in having guys who won't be on the next winning team playing on a transition team.

I'm watching The Last Dance and this worked out well for the Bulls.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Yes that's the original point I made. Tear it down, no point in having guys who won't be on the next winning team playing on a transition team.

I think this year's team will be at least as talented as the 2001 team, which did okay for itself.

 

[ifmanis5]

I think this year's team will be at least as talented as the 2001 team, which did okay for itself.

Except, you know, the QB position.

 

[Soxy]

This is, of course, a relative term. Per FO he was the 6th best TE in 2018, despite only playing 13 games. In 2017 he missed two games (one due to suspension) and was far and away the best TE in the league:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/te/2017

Oh, for sure. You look at his receiving production in 2018, combined with his blocking, and that's a career year for a lot of ordinary tight ends. He set an insanely high bar.

We also can't ignore that there were signs of decline during the 2018 season. There was a stretch where teams weren't doubling or rolling coverages over like they used to, and Gronk was struggling to get open. Going from GRONK to Gronk-lite is nothing to sneeze at, but he was showing signs of decline.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think this year's team will be at least as talented as the 2001 team, which did okay for itself.

Yeah, I still see a defense that can be really good with a couple moves.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Except, you know, the QB position.

2001 Brady wasn’t that good yet. 86.5 rating and only 18 TD passes. Not crazy to believe they can’t get similar production from Stidham. Obviously need more from running game in 2020.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Except, you know, the QB position.

You don't know that. Brady wasn't a world-beater that year (some wanted Bledsoe to start the SB). No reason to think that Stidham can't approximate what Brady gave them that year.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Neither wanted to play for BB anymore. I’d rather keep Bill and get the rebuild started than hang on to an aging dynasty.

I gotta be honest, I think it’s more that BB didn’t want Brady. There was a clear path to keeping him after 2018 and Bill wanted no part of it.

2001 Brady wasn’t that good yet. 86.5 rating and only 18 TD passes. Not crazy to believe they can’t get similar production from Stidham. Obviously need more from running game in 2020.

Gotta adjust for inflation, that’s like 30 TD in 14 games in 2020 speak. Brady led the NFL in TDs the next season with...29.

 

[rodderick]

2001 Brady wasn’t that good yet. 86.5 rating and only 18 TD passes. Not crazy to believe they can’t get similar production from Stidham. Obviously need more from running game in 2020.

86.5 rating in 2001 was good for 6th in the league and a Pro Bowl spot. The Patriots won't get close to that kind of QB performance in 2020.

 

[BigSoxFan]

86.5 rating in 2001 was good for 6th in the league and a Pro Bowl spot. The Patriots won't get close to that kind of QB performance in 2020.

You don’t know that. The point is that we have no idea what the QB position will yield and it wasn’t a major asset in 2001.

 

[DJnVa]

Obviously the Pats talked them up to a 4th. I was responding to the logic that since Gronk wasn't going to play, the Pats should be happy with anything at all that was more than nothing.

That was the logic. Perhaps Tampa blinked.

 

[ifmanis5]

You don't know that. Brady wasn't a world-beater that year (some wanted Bledsoe to start the SB). No reason to think that Stidham can't approximate what Brady gave them that year.

If Stiddy can bring them the length of the field late in the 4th qtr of the SB next year, drinks on me.

 

[rodderick]

You don’t know that. The point is that we have no idea what the QB position will yield and it wasn’t a major asset in 2001.

Brady and the Patriots offense ranked higher in DVOA in 2001 than the defense did, and Brady had to generate offense on his own to comeback against the Raiders in a snowstorm, something I really don't see Stidham/Hoyer/draft pick replicating so I'd disagree he wasn't a major asset. But the 2001 team had a very atypical run and yes, you can't know anything for certain.

 

[Super Nomario]

2001 Brady wasn't BRADY yet, but I think you guys are selling him short. The Patriots finished 22nd in scoring offense in 2000 with Bledsoe. They scored 20 points total in the two games Bledsoe started in 2001. They still finished 6th in scoring. No, Brady didn't put up gaudy numbers, but he also had lousy receiving weapons. Troy Brown and David Patten and the 3rd leading receiver was Terry Glenn - 204 yards in four games before being benched. Antowain Smith finished 4th.

We are also dealing with crappy weapons this year. I hope Stidham is good, but Brady 2001 is a 95th+ percentile outcome.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

If Stiddy can bring them the length of the field late in the 4th qtr of the SB next year, drinks on me.

What if they're just in clock killing mode and don't make it past the 50?

 

[Old Fart Tree]

They just need to hit Troy on the cross.

 

[ifmanis5]

What if they're just in clock killing mode and don't make it past the 50?

Sure, Have a 'Gansett, neighbor.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

And to those who don't think Stidham doesn't have a future, are you basing it solely on percentages (i.e., most QBs don't ever become better than average)?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Brady and the Patriots offense ranked higher in DVOA in 2001 than the defense did, and Brady had to generate offense on his own to comeback against the Raiders in a snowstorm, something I really don't see Stidham/Hoyer/draft pick replicating so I'd disagree he wasn't a major asset. But the 2001 team had a very atypical run and yes, you can't know anything for certain.

Brady clearly did great that year but the gameplan was still pretty conservative and it’s not like Brady was winning many games on his own like he would later on in his career.

Thus, I don’t see the comparison as that far off. Pats in 2001 were led by a strong veteran defense, strong ST, and great coaching. Pats in 2020 will be led by a strong veteran defense, strong ST, and great coaching. There is a path to victory if Stidham can surprise us like Brady did. Obviously, a big if but nobody saw 2018 Mahomes coming either. We just have no idea with these QB progressions.

 

[E5 Yaz]

And to those who don't think Stidham doesn't have a future, are you basing it solely on percentages (i.e., most QBs don't ever become better than average)?

Worse ... they're basing it on one bad decision/pass against the Jets

 

[axx]

I have to wonder if WWE's financial difficulties played a part in him coming back. I think it's risky for Gronk to come back, but for $10M and nice warm Tampa (instead of freezing cold New England) it makes sense.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Worse ... they're basing it on one bad decision/pass against the Jets

Right, maybe they're among the few who rubbed their hands together when Mo Lewis knocked Bledsoe out and said, "Now we've got a chance," when the rest of us were saying, "Go Bruins."

 

[Average Reds]

I'm sorry. Neither Gronk, nor TB had any leverage. Leak out that Gronk is looking to move to TB - but the Pats are looking for a better deal than swapping 4th and 7th round picks.. and ALL of the pressure if on TB. What - are they building for the future?

Given that the trade isn’t speculative and has actually happened, we now know with a certainty of 100% that you have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Given that the trade isn’t speculative and has actually happened, we now know with a certainty of 100% that you have no idea what you are talking about.

Take the over

 

[djbayko]

I have to wonder if WWE's financial difficulties played a part in him coming back. I think it's risky for Gronk to come back, but for $10M and nice warm Tampa (instead of freezing cold New England) it makes sense.

Gronk has made over $50M in his career. I view WWE as something he wanted to do, not needed to do. I view 2020 with Tom in the same way.

 

[Cellar-Door]

View: https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1252724792878301185


Wow, my initial value guess was quite close. The Patriots are indeed getting 139.
No word yet that I've seen on whether it is 230 or 241 heading the other way.

Edit- since it brought in the chain. This is the argument for why the Patriots couldn't play hardball even if they wanted to, the minute Gronk sends in the paperwork the Patriots go on a short clock to move $11M off the cap. A nice reasonable return was the obvious make everyone pretty happy solution. NE gets value, TB gets Gronk, no relationships are damaged. Everyone gets what they want.

 

[BigSoxFan]

View: https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1252724792878301185


Wow, my initial value guess was quite close. The Patriots are indeed getting 139.
No word yet that I've seen on whether it is 230 or 241 heading the other way.

139? Damn. Oh well.

 

[Don Buddin's GS]

Wondered why I couldn’t get SoSH to load earlier this afternoon- this news provides the answer

 

[DJnVa]

139? Damn. Oh well.

Who cares? BB will draft someone that all the sites rated 176.

 

[Seels]

And to those who don't think Stidham doesn't have a future, are you basing it solely on percentages (i.e., most QBs don't ever become better than average)?

I didn't think much of him at Auburn or in the preseason. Seems like a low ceiling guy. Matt Cassel with better pocket presence.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

One of the things I love about SOSH is the (relative) lack of fanboy-ism. These takes that we “don’t know what we might get from Stidham,” suggesting “there’s a path” to 2001...it’s disappointing. And I say that as someone who’s probably more intrigued by Stidham, what he showed his junior year, etc... than most. This is a rebuilding year. If they hit the 8.5 over, I’ll be thrilled. Yes, of course, we “don’t know,” but let’s try to be somewhat realistic. I always thought SOSH was better than that.

 

[tims4wins]

I didn't think much of him at Auburn or in the preseason. Seems like a low ceiling guy. Matt Cassel with better pocket presence.

Best rookie preseason ever under BB. Better than Jimmy. His numbers were great. Looked awesome to me.

 

[BigSoxFan]

One of the things I love about SOSH is the (relative) lack of fanboy-ism. These takes that we “don’t know what we might get from Stidham,” suggesting “there’s a path” to 2001...it’s disappointing. And I say that as someone who’s probably more intrigued by Stidham, what he showed his junior year, etc... than most. This is a rebuilding year. If they hit the 8.5 over, I’ll be thrilled. Yes, of course, we “don’t know,” but let’s try to be somewhat realistic. I always thought SOSH was better than that.

Nobody is claiming that this team is 2001 all over again but there absolutely are some similarities with how it’s constructed. The coach is the same. The coaching staff is experienced. Edelman, if he isn’t traded, can play the Brown role, strong OL, strong DL, elite corner in Gilmore just like 2001 had Law, secondary is experienced just like 2001, special teams both years are very good, etc.

Key differences (apart from QB situation): no AV, no Seymour (DL at 23 still possible), need more LB depth, and no reliable TE option.

You’re saying it’s not “somewhat realistic” for a team led by BB, a strong defense that features the DPOY, to win 10 or 11 games? It’s certainly not the most likely option but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially in a weird COVID year.

If that makes people a “fanboy”, that’s pretty funny to me. Just pointing out that this team isn’t yet a lost cause yet.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Nobody is claiming that this team is 2001 all over again but there absolutely are some similarities with how it’s constructed. The coach is the same. The coaching staff is experienced. Edelman, if he isn’t traded, can play the Brown role, strong OL, strong DL, elite corner in Gilmore just like 2001 had Law, secondary is experienced just like 2001, special teams both years are very good, etc.

Key differences (apart from QB situation): no AV, no Seymour (DL at 23 still possible), need more LB depth, and no reliable TE option.

You’re saying it’s not “somewhat realistic” for a team led by BB, a strong defense that features the DPOY, to win 10 or 11 games? It’s certainly not the most likely option but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially in a weird COVID year.

If that makes people a “fanboy”, that’s pretty funny to me. Just pointing out that this team isn’t yet a lost cause yet.

Fanboy

 

[BigSoxFan]

Fanboy

Look, all I’m saying is that Jarrett Stidham has a chance to match or exceed 2007 Brady, 2013 Manning, or 2018 Mahomes production with a couple small breaks.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Fanboy

This is exactly what I hate about SoSH. Thought everyone was better than this.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

nm

 

[Ferm Sheller]

NM

 

[DJnVa]

I didn't think much of him at Auburn or in the preseason. Seems like a low ceiling guy. Matt Cassel with better pocket presence.

He was very good in the preseason. What did you see that was different?