2020 Indians: Enjoy them and then we'll see what happens.

[Sad Sam Jones]

After winning three consecutive AL Central titles for the second time in franchise history, for the second offseason in a row, the Indians will only commit to competing to the point that Paul Dolan can sustain his profit margins. In 2019, Cleveland spent $2.5M total in free agency (on Oliver Perez), while slashing over $15M in payroll. While payroll is likely to increase due to arbitration cases (specifically Francisco Lindor being due at least a $6M raise), the Indians aren't likely to add salary much beyond what they've already cleared.

The offseason started with the team picking up Corey Kluber's $17.5M team option only to use it as rock bottom trade value when they shipped him and his entire salary off to the Rangers for a relief prospect (Emmanuel Clase, #30 in the Texas system) and another useless backup outfielder (Delino DeShields Jr). It was, without a doubt, the Tribe's least popular trade since acquiring John Rocker in 2001. They have used $6.25M of the savings to sign second baseman Cesar Hernandez, filling the most obvious hole in their lineup. If Clase and DeShields both make Cleveland's roster, along with the bump from Kevin Plawecki to Sandy Leon as the backup catcher, the Indians would have between $6.5M-$7M left over from the Kluber savings. The biggest need for that money is to address an outfield corner.

Because of Dolan's track record of cheapness, Indians fans will have to continue enduring trade rumors about Lindor and every other player with value (the Clevinger rumors are particularly nonsensical since he's so cheap and as a bit of late bloomer he may never price himself out of Cleveland). However, the present lineup looks something like this:

C: Roberto Perez
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Cesar Hernandez
SS: Francisco Lindor
3B: Jose Ramirez
LF: Jordan Luplow/Jake Bauers/Greg Allen
CF: Oscar Mercado
RF: Bradley Zimmer/Delino DeShields
DH: Franmil Reyes

Bench:
C: Sandy Leon
UT: Yu Chang
UT: Christian Arroyo

SP: Mike Clevinger
SP: Shane Bieber
SP: Carlos Carrasco
SP: Aaron Civale
SP: Zach Plesac

SP/RP: Adam Plutko
RP: James Hoyt
RP: James Karinchak
RP: Hunter Wood
RP: Adam Cimber
RP: Oliver Perez
RP: Nick Wittgren
RP: Brad Hand

The team is deep in replacement level outfielders, but obviously they won't fill the roster with six of them during the season and need to part ways with a couple of them in favor of one everyday player. I'm sure Bauers will be playing in AAA if he doesn't lock up the left-side of an outfield platoon in March. Tyler Naquin (ACL) will likely return midseason and seems a natural platoon partner with Luplow for one corner. Luplow-Mercado-DeShields isn't the worst of lineups against LHP, but they have no good options against RHP unless Zimmer blossoms after 1½ seasons lost to injury. That the Indians didn't top Miami's $17.5M/2-yr. contract to Corey Dickerson, who seems the perfect fit for this roster/payroll is probably a bad sign for Cleveland fans. While bringing Yasiel Puig and his reverse splits back to Cleveland is still a possibility, the better path to a low salary solution and roster trimming might be through trade. Reyes is also working to improve his outfield play, but realistically that's just an option for keeping him in the lineup while giving others the occasional break at DH. They could also use an experienced utilityman, but if the infield is healthy that's a roleplayer who's going to collect a lot of dust.

Injuries forced the Indians to use 12 different pitchers to start games in 2019, with 7 of those starting at least 10 games. This gives them well-prepared depth heading into 2020. Aaron Civale's combination of control and spin-rate looks like a legitimate long-term addition to the rotation. Zach Plesac was more smoke and mirrors, in the same style as Adam Plutko, but either one might have success eating innings if teamed with an opener. I like Jefry Rodriguez (acquired in last winter's Yan Gomes trade) and his heavy sinker in the bullpen, where a more focused repertoire might play up as it did for Jose Mesa. With the addition of Logan Allen and Scott Moss through last summer's Trevor Bauer trade, the Indians have two more candidates to press for jobs in the back of the rotation by mid-summer. Triston McKenzie could also reach Cleveland in a matter of months if he could just stay on the field.

Obviously 2-3 of these bullpen spots are up in the air. The recent head-scratching move to DFA 3rd-string catcher Eric Haase makes me think they believe the 33-year-old Hoyt can be a serious contributor to the 2020 pen. Rodriguez, Clase and Phil Maton are also in the mix. Clase shouldn't have been the centerpiece of the Kluber trade, but I do think he's underrated. He now regularly hits triple-digits on the radar, and he's been throwing strikes since moving to the pen (and if there's one thing the Indians do as well as anyone it's developing strike-throwers). Still, I think right now he'd have to rank behind James Karinchak for the title of "heir apparent to the closer". Karinchak just exploded onto the prospect scene in 2019 with a 20.7/9ip K-rate across four levels including Cleveland, despite losing two months to a pulled hamstring.

I'm sure before the season starts I'll get into how they shape up against Minnesota and Chicago, and the possible overhauling of the roster if the first half doesn't go as planned.

 

[edoug]

What are your thoughts on Brad Hand? He turns 30 just before the '20 season starts and is making just 7 and a half million this year with a 10 million dollar team option (with a 1 million dollar team buyout) for "21.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I think Hand and Lindor (possibly Santana as well) are heading into their final season in Cleveland. If the first half goes badly, they could trade both in July for MLB ready players to retool for 2021. Their philosophy seems to be building 90 win teams on a budget while trying to turn a couple of veterans into pieces for the next wave each year. Then if health and luck add a few wins to the projection, they can add what they still need midseason. Paying $10M for a closer seems like a bad use of their limited resources to do that and something they'd be gunshy about (they did so once for Kerry Wood and it turned out to be a disaster). Wittgren, Karinchak and Clase are likely auditioning for the job in 2021.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The Indians have avoided going to arbitration with anyone this year:

Francisco Lindor $17.5M
Mike Clevinger $4.1M
Sandy Leon $2M
Delino DeShields $1.875M
Tyler Naquin $1.45M
Nick Wittgren $1.125M

With 13 players' salaries now locked in, projections on the remaining roster have the Indians opening the season at around $103.8M in payroll. Even with last year's penny pinching, they were on the hook for $129.3M. I expect Dolan to jump at the chance to pay less in 2020, but this team could still add $14M in free agency and be at the same place they were in 2016 before they jumped to the higher levels of 2017-18 that ownership last year said they couldn't sustain. The idea that they should save $4M-$7M by trading Clevinger or Hand and still try to compete for a playoff spot would be absurd.

They still need a corner outfielder, but that free agent market is drying up. I don't see them getting into a bidding war for Marcel Ozuna or Nick Castellanos. A reunion with Yasiel Puig or the veteran leadership of Hunter Pence seems more their speed. However, with all the mediocre outfielders already in house and a full 40 man roster (plus the chance to offset a bit of any payroll they add), a trade probably makes the most sense.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The odds-on leader for the spring training "Best Shape of His Life" award is Franmil Reyes, who has dropped 18 lbs. by cutting out sweets and drinking more water. Reyes will spend most of spring training trying to play a corner outfield spot to avoid being strictly a DH. However, with no real depth overload on Cleveland's roster, I don't see what this will accomplish other than having Reyes prepared for interleague trips to NL cities. It might give Jose Ramirez or Francisco Lindor the rare break at DH while keeping Reyes in the lineup, but for the most part, any time Reyes roams the outfield just means a better-fielding-but-worse-hitting outfielder is added to the lineup.

Reyes playing the outfield only becomes a success story if Jake Bauers finally reaches his potential (in which case, they're still almost certainly better off with Bauers as the one in the outfield) or Bobby Bradley shows that last season was no fluke and forces his way onto the 26-man roster. Bradley might still be the first baseman of the future, but on the 20-80 scale he's a 20 runner, which eliminates him from the outfield discussion. The Indians have always put their least mobile outfielder in right, likely because of its short outfield wall vs. the 18-footer in left that requires more skill and range chasing down deflections.

The Indians remain observers in the hot stove league. The only moves they've made in the new year are selling off their 3rd string catcher and inviting Dominic Leone in for bullpen addition (considering he's mixed 2 years of success in with 4 in which he was unusable, that seems a long shot). I still think trading for an outfield upgrade where they can clear at least one of their excess 5th outfielders makes the most sense, but there are no real rumors or leading candidates, which leaves a Yasiel Puig reunion still looking like the most obvious solution.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

the Lindor extension talks have come to an end for now. Lindor seems to want 300M+ (as he's certainly entitled to), and the Indians are nowhere close.

https://theathletic.com/1661102/2020/03/09/lloyd-francisco-lindor-and-the-indians-have-suspended-contract-talks-now-what/

Lindor wouldn’t give specifics on the Indians’ offer but confirmed it never reached $300 million. He also said he wouldn’t accept a deal similar to what Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich signed last week: nine years and $215 million. No, the Indians’ offer would have to be more. Much more. Lindor is younger. Yelich has already suffered one significant knee injury. These are all things Lindor has considered.

“My agent knows my value, I know my value. But that’s something that’s a little more private,” Lindor said. “But I do know what’s fair for both sides. I’m very aware. I’ve studied it.”

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

As a lifelong Indians fan, I'm now convinced we'll get a 48 game season, a number of star players will sit out, and the Indians will finally win a World Series... which will always be remembered as a joke. Then they'll trade Francisco Lindor this winter and win 70 games next year.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The one good thing to come from the demotions of Clevinger and Plesac will arrive at Progressive Field on Saturday night when Triston McKenzie makes his MLB debut against the Tigers. The 23-year-old former 1st round pick has gotten results whenever he's on the mound, but getting on the mound has been a career-long problem. He dodged a forearm issue in 2018 only to miss the entire 2019 season with back problems. After being considered the top pitching prospect in the organization since he was drafted in 2015 (and a 2-time top 50 prospect in the game), his inability to stay on the diamond had most experts dropping him behind Daniel Espino and Ethan Hankins this past year.

He hasn't pitched in an official game in nearly two years and was likely one of the players with the most to lose if the 2020 season was wiped out, so I imagine he'll be on a short leash the remainder of the season. He was drafted with dreams of his physical potential once he filled out his lanky 6'5" frame, which it turns out has never happened. He may never be the power pitcher they envisioned, but he has a swing-and-miss curve and pounds the strike zone (as all upper level Cleveland prospects do). Considering the earlier hype though, and Cleveland's success with under-the-radar prospects (Bieber only started getting buzz a month or two before his debut and Plesac and Civale came out of nowhere), this is probably the most anticipated debut of a Cleveland prospect since Lindor.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

McKenzie looked great, at least the highlights and his numbers. And that wingspan!

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

It sounds like McKenzie will get keep getting opportunities as long as he looks like he belongs here. Adam Plutko has been demoted to the pen, which means the Indians currently don't have a starter scheduled for their game on Wednesday. By tomorrow, Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger will be both be eligible to be promoted from the Lake County site. It would be odd if they promoted one but not the other. Maybe they temporarily go with a 6-man rotation. Carlos Carrasco looks like he might be going through a dead arm period from all the chaos he's been through over the past year. He doesn't have his usual command and is missing too often in the strike zone, so maybe he needs an extra day or a 10 day break to rest and work things out on the side.

Of course, they could continue to punish Plesac and Clevinger and just go with a bullpen game Wednesday. The pen hasn't been taxed, and other than Dominic Leone (who should be released), they've been just as good as the rotation. Cleveland has used bullpen games before, but I don't think they've ever used the "opener" gameplan. Plutko is actually built for that role since his junk is just good enough to fool a lineup once.

I was happy with the team's actions against Plesac and Clevinger, but at some point they need the opportunity to earn their way back in the fold. The calls for season-long suspensions were always a bit much. I guess some people must think the Marlins, Cardinals and other players magically caught COVID while sitting in their hotel rooms on their best behavior. Obviously, some of those players caught it in confined areas with their teammates, but many of those got it from behavior as bad or worse than Plesac and Clevinger, and still missed fewer games and weren't pilloried by the press, social media and their own teammates for their actions like those two.