2020 NBA Draft discussion

Cellar-Door

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I would love for the draft to come along and the Celtics to have no picks. We have a roster crunch already, I'd like to see at least 2 if not all 3 of the 1sts shifted either in a package to upgrade the bench, or for future picks.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Vecenie’s latest team-specific big board for the Cavs contains some high praise for Wiseman.

Wiseman has the most defensive upside in the class, and is said to be dominating in workouts in Miami as he trains for the NBA Draft. His physical tools are immense. He’s 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan. He puts an absolute lid on the rim defensively, and has really improved his core strength as it refers to holding up and keeping verticality through contact at the rim. His mobility is good enough for him to hedge out softly in a flat ball-screen coverage, then recover onto his man. I don’t think you want him switching out on smaller guards right now, but it wouldn’t stun me if he ended up being able to handle wings in switches. He’s also an elite rim-runner, and a potential trailer 3-point shooter and pick-and-pop weapon. I know he’s not necessarily a roster fit, but the team needs to acquire as many good defenders as possible. His upside on that end is unique and real in this class, even if he plays a position that is loaded across the league.

He goes on to note that he probably won’t be there for the Cavs at #5, so almost certainly won’t slide into the Celtics’ trade-up range. But he could well be there at #2...

No Wiseman has the power to reason away what a fool belieeeves he seeeeees...
 

NomarsFool

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You can't teach height. With the way the Celtics play, we need a bunch of players who won't get abused (like Kemba does) on switches. Maybe he has long arms, but seems a little short in my view.
 

nighthob

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I would love for the draft to come along and the Celtics to have no picks. We have a roster crunch already, I'd like to see at least 2 if not all 3 of the 1sts shifted either in a package to upgrade the bench, or for future picks.
The roster crunch thing is overblown. One of Edwards or Waters won’t be here next year as having three sub-6’ guards on a roster isn’t really doable. With two way contracts #47 is going to spend the year in Portland. And, no, Tacko is probably not going to be occupying a roster spot. Especially not if they end up with one of Stewart or Vern Carey Jr. The role of behemoth defender can be filled easily enough.
 

Cellar-Door

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The roster crunch thing is overblown. One of Edwards or Waters won’t be here next year as having three sub-6’ guards on a roster isn’t really doable. With two way contracts #47 is going to spend the year in Portland. And, no, Tacko is probably not going to be occupying a roster spot. Especially not if they end up with one of Stewart or Vern Carey Jr. The role of behemoth defender can be filled easily enough.
My feeling was... Wanamaker is likely gone, I honestly think both Edwards and Waters are gone, I also agree that Tacko is either another 2 way or gone. That still only leaves 2 open roster places, one is going to an MLE vet. And I think the picks are more valuable in a trade if you combine them all.
 

BigSoxFan

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Career 43% from 3 on 575 attempts over 4 years at TCU.
Semi funky looking form but it works for him. I would be fine with him at 26/30 and think he'd be a definite upgrade over Semi. He and Grant would be tossing guys around like rag dolls.
 

benhogan

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According to Beyond Athlete Management, Terry has gone from 155 pounds to 174 pounds over the course of the offseason. In addition to adding weight, Terry also hit a bit of a growth spurt as he now stands at six-feet-three-inches, previously measuring at six-feet-one-inches.

Would like Bane at 26 or 30...Terry is probably an option at 14


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chilidawg

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You can't teach height. With the way the Celtics play, we need a bunch of players who won't get abused (like Kemba does) on switches. Maybe he has long arms, but seems a little short in my view.
He looked like a turnstile on defense in that video. I don't think our backcourt needs more of that. A guy who can defend and shoot seems preferable. S. Bey or Nesmith at 14 , or trade up for Vassell.
 

NomarsFool

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Exactly. I know the consensus seems to be the Celtics need a shooter, but given the limited offensive role of that shooter it is vitally important they are useful on the defensive end of the court as well. If they get hunted like Kemba is hunted, they won't be playable.

We basically need a Semi who's a better shooter. That should be findable.
 

chilidawg

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According to Beyond Athlete Management, Terry has gone from 155 pounds to 174 pounds over the course of the offseason. In addition to adding weight, Terry also hit a bit of a growth spurt as he now stands at six-feet-three-inches, previously measuring at six-feet-one-inches.

Would like Bane at 26 or 30...Terry is probably an option at 14


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Bane is pretty impressive, I might even consider him at 14.

This Mavs site really likes him:

 

nighthob

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My feeling was... Wanamaker is likely gone, I honestly think both Edwards and Waters are gone, I also agree that Tacko is either another 2 way or gone. That still only leaves 2 open roster places, one is going to an MLE vet. And I think the picks are more valuable in a trade if you combine them all.
Wanamaker is likely gone, I agree there, Javonte Green is a great end of bench energy guy, but entirely replaceable by a draftee. Add in losing both two ways and you have four open spots with which to stash players.
 

oumbi

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According to Beyond Athlete Management, Terry has gone from 155 pounds to 174 pounds over the course of the offseason. In addition to adding weight, Terry also hit a bit of a growth spurt as he now stands at six-feet-three-inches, previously measuring at six-feet-one-inches.

Would like Bane at 26 or 30...Terry is probably an option at 14


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I would be happy if the Celtics drafted both of these players. It won't give them a big boost in height, but that is why god gave us the MLE.
 

oumbi

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Wanamaker is likely gone, I agree there, Javonte Green is a great end of bench energy guy, but entirely replaceable by a draftee. Add in losing both two ways and you have four open spots with which to stash players.
It seems that the following players may be facing possible exits from the Celtics:
Waters
Edwards
Green
Poirier
Wannamaker
Kanter
Ojeleye
Fall (Much as I would enjoy watching him turn into a viable NBA player, I would understand, though not like, his exit.)

That is eight possible openings. More than enough room for a couple of MLE types and the draft choices.
 

nighthob

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According to Beyond Athlete Management, Terry has gone from 155 pounds to 174 pounds over the course of the offseason. In addition to adding weight, Terry also hit a bit of a growth spurt as he now stands at six-feet-three-inches, previously measuring at six-feet-one-inches.
Is that sneakered height or barefoot? Because my suspicions are that he just got some Doc Martens. I do like him a lot more than Bane, though.
 

Cellar-Door

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It seems that the following players may be facing possible exits from the Celtics:
Waters
Edwards
Green
Poirier
Wannamaker
Kanter
Ojeleye
Fall (Much as I would enjoy watching him turn into a viable NBA player, I would understand, though not like, his exit.)

That is eight possible openings. More than enough room for a couple of MLE types and the draft choices.
1st round picks aren't taking 2 ways, that's the 2nd and either an undrafted or a fringy scrub.

Basically you COULD clear 5 main roster spots if you wanted to (Kanter has a player option), but I also think that the idea that an already really young team should or will dump a whole bunch of guys to bring in even younger guys isn't a good idea.

I see it this way:
1. Wannamaker- has value as a veteran PG off the bench who can defend and has decent size, I think he may move on, but he's one you might want to keep
2. Ojeleye- sure you can and might cut him, but he has a clear role and it's doubtful a late 1st is going to be better for a contender any time soon
3. Poirier- the wild card, hasn't shown much, but he had injury issues, and he's a big with a guaranteed contract and that alone might get him the 2nd year.
4. Green- He's likely on his way out
5. Edwards- As discussed in another thread, I think he's done here likely.

I look at that and I see 2-3 spots that make sense to upgrade. 1 is going to be the MLE, I would guess they'd like another to be a veteran shooter/scorer for the bench on the cheap. To me before trades that leaves really 1 spot for a rookie.
 

NomarsFool

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Is that sneakered height or barefoot? Because my suspicions are that he just got some Doc Martens. I do like him a lot more than Bane, though.
I think I saw somewhere 6-3" in sneakers, which would put him 6-2 for comparison on NBA rosters.
 

Jimbodandy

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If they are in the G-league, though, do they count as roster spots?
If they're under contract to an NBA team, yes.

Unless things change next year due to covid, you still have 15 regular spots under contract, +2 for 2-ways.

You can only dress 13 for a game. So Langford, Edwards, and Poirier got huge minutes this year in Portland. They weren't going to play much in Boston, so it was a good way to get action.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Poku does have a good shootings stroke and a quick trigger. He also has some passing ability. I don't think I've ever seen a (non-lumbering center) prospect play so close to the floor. In the highlights I watched, his feet didn't seem to rise more than a foot off the hardwood once. That's not how NBA basketball is played. He might be able to get away with catching and shooting as a ground bound player, because of his height, but that's about it. He certainly isn't going to use his body to create space near the hoop.

The guy I keep forgetting about who really seems like the high-ceiling/low-floor big who plays like a guard is Killian Tillie. Great shooter with a decent release, very good passer, good PnR player on offense, can put the ball on the floor a bit, plus he's a heady defender who can protect the rim a bit and defend the PnR adequately. He's just an overall smart player who does a lot of things well, and shoots great. Over 44% from 3 on 239 attempts while standing at 6'10, with a lot of those coming from fairly deep. And he won’t instantly become the weakest player in the league when he steps foot on the court like Poku will.

Tillie’s a big dude with a history of leg injuries, so I get why he's generally projected outside of the first, but if he manages to stay on the court, he's a top 10 player in this draft and a great fit for the Celtics.
 

TripleOT

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Time for the annual "What can we get at 14" discussion. Looking at previous 14s, there's a strong likelihood the Celtics (or whatever team the pick is traded to) will get a solid player there. Looking at previous picks, I'd prefer someone who dropped to 14, like Michael Porter, because of health issues, than a solid rotation guy, since the Celtics can get one of those with one of the later first round picks. This is probably going to be their last high first round pick for the next half decade, at least, since Tatum and Brown should have this team winning 55+ games for the forseeable future. We need a homerun at 14. I like Patrick Williams, and I hope he maybe has grown a bit. Like him at 6'8, but love him at 6'10. I know he's been criticized for defensive shortcomings, but I think he's enough of an athlete to be a good defender. 32% three point shooting with an exceptional 84% at the FT line bodes well for his threeball potential in the pros, although he has to become more instinctive in his mechanics. If he's a player, he will fit in nicely with Tatum and Brown, with Romeo as a solid bench wing.

Number 14

2019 Romeo Langford, Indiana – Boston Celtics
2018 Michael Porter, University of Missouri – Denver Nuggets
2017 Bam Adebayo, Kentucky – Miami HEAT
2016 Denzel Valentine, Michigan State – Chicago Bulls
2015 Cameron Payne, Murray State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2014 TJ Warren, NC State – Phoenix Suns
2013 Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA – Utah Jazz
2012 John Henson, UNC – Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Marcus Morris, Kansas – Houston Rockets
2010 Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Houston Rockets
 

EL Jeffe

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Can any of the knowledgeable draft followers walk me through the case for Bey in the 10-15 range? I haven't done any deep dives but from casual viewing, I'm just not seeing the value there. He doesn't seem particularly skilled, whether that's as a shot creator or a facilitator. He's also not overly athletic or explosive, which narrows his margin for error. A 3& D wing with the size and frame to defend multiple positions is definitely valuable, but I'm not quite there with him on the shooting aspect. His release looks a little low and funky to me, which may not translate against NBA closeouts. That's why his floor for me isn't as high as others see it to be. If his shot doesn't translate, you've essentially just drafted Semi Ojeleye with a lottery pick. I'm just not sure what Bey brings at 14 that Nwora doesn't bring in the 2nd round. Bey seems a little more dialed-in defensively and the motor runs a little hotter, but Nwora strikes me as the better athlete and has a more traditional release.
 

the moops

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2019 Romeo Langford, Indiana – Boston Celtics
2018 Michael Porter, University of Missouri – Denver Nuggets
2017 Bam Adebayo, Kentucky – Miami HEAT
2016 Denzel Valentine, Michigan State – Chicago Bulls
2015 Cameron Payne, Murray State – Oklahoma City Thunder
2014 TJ Warren, NC State – Phoenix Suns
2013 Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA – Utah Jazz
2012 John Henson, UNC – Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Marcus Morris, Kansas – Houston Rockets
2010 Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Houston Rockets
PG - Payne
SG - Warren
SF - Porter
PF - Morris
C - Bam

That is a nice starting 5
 

nighthob

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Can any of the knowledgeable draft followers walk me through the case for Bey in the 10-15 range? I haven't done any deep dives but from casual viewing, I'm just not seeing the value there. He doesn't seem particularly skilled, whether that's as a shot creator or a facilitator. He's also not overly athletic or explosive, which narrows his margin for error. A 3& D wing with the size and frame to defend multiple positions is definitely valuable, but I'm not quite there with him on the shooting aspect. His release looks a little low and funky to me, which may not translate against NBA closeouts. That's why his floor for me isn't as high as others see it to be. If his shot doesn't translate, you've essentially just drafted Semi Ojeleye with a lottery pick. I'm just not sure what Bey brings at 14 that Nwora doesn't bring in the 2nd round. Bey seems a little more dialed-in defensively and the motor runs a little hotter, but Nwora strikes me as the better athlete and has a more traditional release.
I'm going to say at the outset that I largely agree with your evaluation, which is why he's not at the top of my list for the mid first pick. That being said I'll disagree about his floor, because he's the classic high floor low ceiling player (someone like Jay Scrubb would be the other end of that spectrum, he's almost certainly out of the NBA in a few years, but that sort of athleticism gives him a ceiling that Bey will never have). I'll enthusiastically agree that he'll never be a star, because he doesn't have the shot creation ability and his ability to get to the rim is going to largely limited to transition buckets. On the other hand guys with his motor tend to succeed when they can play defense and shoot threes (and he can shoot them).

Wings in basketball are like CBs in football, you can never have too many (Boston's postseason might have turned out differently had they had just one more, the guy they were set to draft in '19, Tyler Herro). Especially in the pace & space era when teams are, increasingly, using three wings (20 years ago teams were drafting those undersized but athletic college PFs like Caron Butler and moving them to the SF spot as "Power 3s", now those same players are just staying at the 4).

Bey is 6'8" with a plus wingspan, a little room to grow, good lateral quickness (even if he lacks the explosiveness to be a real offensive star), and an advanced understanding of team defense that will allow him to contribute from day one. He disrupts passing lanes with deflections, though not outright steals. He doesn't gamble on defense, which makes him valuable (you see Tatum and Brown do this, where they jump the lane and leave their man a straight shot to the rim if/when they miss). His lateral quickness makes him switchable and a valuable rotation guy.

The downside is that as a shooter he's strictly a catch & shoot guy (I made this point earlier in the thread) due to the release which is less than ideal. A shooting coach can probably refine it as the stroke's not broken and he's a gym rat. And that's the realistic extent of his offensive game (if you want a good laugh watch tape of him trying to post up a defender). Devin Vassell is basically a better version of that player (better athleticism, better handle, better in transition, etc.) and I'd much rather have

Ainge's comments today lead me to believe that Bey's on their potential shopping list, but in a roleplayer draft like this one it actually does make sense to draft for need if you're picking from a bunch of high floor guys. For my money someone like Jaden McDaniels at 26/30 or Jay Scrubb make more sense as home run swings than the mid first guys.

I do think that they might have R.J. Hampton on their shopping list, too, though his frame means that he'll have limited utility out of the gate (he's allegedly 6'5" 175 with a 6'7" wingspan). He'd be a homerun swing type I could see them taking due to his combination of skills and athleticism. He's an old fashioned guard with a good drive & kick game and a good shooting stroke. He's also someone that can take over the PG spot from Kemba given the number of shot creators they have.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I'm going to say at the outset that I largely agree with your evaluation, which is why he's not at the top of my list for the mid first pick. That being said I'll disagree about his floor, because he's the classic high floor low ceiling player (someone like Jay Scrubb would be the other end of that spectrum, he's almost certainly out of the NBA in a few years, but that sort of athleticism gives him a ceiling that Bey will never have). I'll enthusiastically agree that he'll never be a star, because he doesn't have the shot creation ability and his ability to get to the rim is going to largely limited to transition buckets. On the other hand guys with his motor tend to succeed when they can play defense and shoot threes (and he can shoot them).

Wings in basketball are like CBs in football, you can never have too many (Boston's postseason might have turned out differently had they had just one more, the guy they were set to draft in '19, Tyler Herro). Especially in the pace & space era when teams are, increasingly, using three wings (20 years ago teams were drafting those undersized but athletic college PFs like Caron Butler and moving them to the SF spot as "Power 3s", now those same players are just staying at the 4).

Bey is 6'8" with a plus wingspan, a little room to grow, good lateral quickness (even if he lacks the explosiveness to be a real offensive star), and an advanced understanding of team defense that will allow him to contribute from day one. He disrupts passing lanes with deflections, though not outright steals. He doesn't gamble on defense, which makes him valuable (you see Tatum and Brown do this, where they jump the lane and leave their man a straight shot to the rim if/when they miss). His lateral quickness makes him switchable and a valuable rotation guy.

The downside is that as a shooter he's strictly a catch & shoot guy (I made this point earlier in the thread) due to the release which is less than ideal. A shooting coach can probably refine it as the stroke's not broken and he's a gym rat. And that's the realistic extent of his offensive game (if you want a good laugh watch tape of him trying to post up a defender). Devin Vassell is basically a better version of that player (better athleticism, better handle, better in transition, etc.) and I'd much rather have

Ainge's comments today lead me to believe that Bey's on their potential shopping list, but in a roleplayer draft like this one it actually does make sense to draft for need if you're picking from a bunch of high floor guys. For my money someone like Jaden McDaniels at 26/30 or Jay Scrubb make more sense as home run swings than the mid first guys.

I do think that they might have R.J. Hampton on their shopping list, too, though his frame means that he'll have limited utility out of the gate (he's allegedly 6'5" 175 with a 6'7" wingspan). He'd be a homerun swing type I could see them taking due to his combination of skills and athleticism. He's an old fashioned guard with a good drive & kick game and a good shooting stroke. He's also someone that can take over the PG spot from Kemba given the number of shot creators they have.
Vecenie is really high on Hampton these days, based on largely on a reworked shooting stroke.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1311729351478501376

Interestingly, he was one of the three prospects Kliq name-checked at the start of this thread (with Wiseman and Edwards), then plummeted down the bottom of the first round on a lot of boards due to a mediocre showing in NZ, and now seems to be reclaiming his spot in the lottery.
 

nighthob

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Injury issues also plagued him in his short stint overseas, which is why he Romeo Langforded down the draft boards during the season. His shooting stroke was OK in high school, he had a really quick release that compensated for the elbow drift. If you watch the recent workout video you see that he's slightly elevated the release point, gotten rid of the slight hitch (his synching of the shot with his jump is better), and he keeps that elbow really tight. The stroke's slow at the moment, but that happens when you rebuild a shot, you need to develop the muscle memory for it to become instinctive. But he had a quick release in high school, so I'm confident that he'll rapidly improve in that regard with the new shot.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Vecenie is really high on Hampton these days, based on largely on a reworked shooting stroke.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1311729351478501376
Interestingly, he was one of the three prospects Kliq name-checked at the start of this thread (with Wiseman and Edwards), then plummeted down the bottom of the first round on a lot of boards due to a mediocre showing in NZ, and now seems to be reclaiming his spot in the lottery.
Speaking of Sam, he just had on Matt Pennie- UMass's finest, and the closest thing the South Shore has had towards reclaiming it's hoops hotbed heights of the Curley brothers years. Pennie's pretty knowledgeable about this draft class, knows a bunch of the kids from his time with the Under Armor circuit, plus he’s a Celtics fan, so they talk Celtics offseason and draft targets, including Hampton and a bunch of the guys we've discussed a lot here.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nba-draft-bubble-deep-dive-combine-thoughts-celtics/id1054081827?i=1000493242669
 

shoelace

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Injury issues also plagued him in his short stint overseas, which is why he Romeo Langforded down the draft boards during the season. His shooting stroke was OK in high school, he had a really quick release that compensated for the elbow drift. If you watch the recent workout video you see that he's slightly elevated the release point, gotten rid of the slight hitch (his synching of the shot with his jump is better), and he keeps that elbow really tight. The stroke's slow at the moment, but that happens when you rebuild a shot, you need to develop the muscle memory for it to become instinctive. But he had a quick release in high school, so I'm confident that he'll rapidly improve in that regard with the new shot.
Really appreciate the work you've been doing in this thread. Curious about your take on Leandro Bolmaro in the late first for the Celtics. What do you see as the likely outcome for Bolmaro in the NBA?
 

nighthob

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Really appreciate the work you've been doing in this thread. Curious about your take on Leandro Bolmaro in the late first for the Celtics. What do you see as the likely outcome for Bolmaro in the NBA?
I like the video that I've watched of him, he reminds me a lot of Manu (which might be his 1% projection). Not overly fast or athletic, but changes speeds and direction really well with the ball in his hands. The shot release is slow, but the motion is mostly good (the release point drifts a little). There's a lot there for someone to work with. He also has some body work to do, he's allegedly 6'7", and if that's correct I'll guess he weighs around 185. He needs some more body mass to excel at the next level, but he looks thin enough in the shoulder, hips, and wrists that I'm not sure he gets past 200-210, which is sort of borderline.

I don't think he's likely to be a star, but he's definitely got a likely result of quality NBA starter. At the very least he looks the part of the ideal sixth man.
 

nighthob

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As the draft is seven weeks away these lists are not final, I will undoubtedly change my mind a dozen times between now and then. That being said these are my preliminary lists for guys I like at each spot (going by the mock consensuses, with the caveat that they might all be full of shit).

#14
  1. R.J. Hampton- KBA: I keep rewatching the workout footage. If you watch his his high school tape his jumper looks a lot like LaMelo Ball's; severe elbow drift, the shot's never squared off, his footwork is awful, and the motion's never in synch with his jump. On the bright side he had a pretty quick release and despite all the moving parts could get the shot off against anyone. He's used his time off to rebuild the shot completely (under Mike Miller's tutelage). Elbow's tight, shooting motion pure and straight, solid base when he goes up, and the shot's in synch with the jump (no more hitch at the top of the motion). The new release is slow. But I expect it to improve as muscle memory for the new motion improves. He's still 6'4"/6'5" with a plus wingspan and athletic. You can groom him as the PG of the future knowing that you have a guy that can't be hunted defensively (so long as Boston's defensive culture takes).
  2. Patrick Williams- FSU: He's got Tatum's size/length (reportedly 6'8" +3 wingspan) in a stronger frame (he's 225-230 now). Athletic, explosive, bouncy. The shooting motion's OK. He definitely has a lot of promise as the big wing to pair with the J-Crew. The problem? The worst defensive footwork I've ever seen. His footwork's so bad I can't even tell whether or not he's laterally quick. Even more raw than Jaylen when he showed up in Boston. He could be anything from the next Kawhi to the next Marquis Chriss.
  3. Aaron Nesmith- Vandy: The Shootist. A good pure jumpshot that will rain death on opponents that don't stick to him. Not the most athletic player, but long (6'6" +4 wingspan) and a hard worker. He might not become a defensive asset, but he won't be a liability either.
  4. Saddiq Bey- Villanova: Smart, not overly athletic, but quick enough to stay on front of guys. Very heady defender. Not a pure shooter, the jumper has a slow release and the motion's less than ideal. So catch & shoot only. He's a rotation player from day one with an upside of elite 3&D wing.
  5. Ty Terry- Stanford: The Shootist Jr. Allegedly 6'3" (in shoes) and 180 now. This will make him less of a defensive liability, but he's still going to get hunted on D. The jumper makes it all worthwhile.
#26
  1. Jaden McDaniels- Washington: The more I watch him the more I like his potential. Height/length package is elite (6'10"/7'0). But he might weigh 190. And I'm probably being generous. His height/length combined with his high release point make his jumper effectively unblockable. His handle is already better than the J-Crew's. Defensively he's versatile, but prone to letting his length and quickness do the work (I've been skeptical of guys like this post-Wiggins). If he could reach 230 (while maintaining his athleticism) he might be the perfect complement to Jayson and Jaylen.
  2. Josh Green- Arizona: Stone cold killer in the Marcus Smart mold. Great physical gifts (6'6" 210 +4/+5 wingspan) and the will to use them. Destroyer of passing lanes. Offensively he's a great transition player. The shot, however, needs a lot of work. The raw 3FG% looks OK, but he's strictly catch & shoot given the form and slow release. But if he could fix the shot you'd have the ability to throw two Marcuses at opponents.
  3. Jalen Smith- Maryland: He's got a great height/length package (6'10" +3/+4 wingspan). He even has decent size at 225. Not terribly athletic, though, and might need to add 20-25lbs in order to play C. Which might be his only spot. Rotation big floor. But good rotation big might be his ceiling.
  4. Theo Maledon- France: The right handed Killian Hayes. Although unlike Hayes he can finish off himself with his off hand. Great height/length combo (6'4" +5 wingspan). But he's 175-180 tops. He seriously needs another 20-30lbs to take the pounding at the NBA level. He's smooth and shifty which allows him to leave defenders in the dust even though he never looks like he's exploding (a lot like Tatum in that his movement makes him look like he's gliding).
  5. Leandro Bolmaro- Spain: Argentine national. He's very shifty with the ball in his hands and changes directions on a dime. Picture Tyler Herro with less scoring but more offensive versatility. Contract issues might delay his arrival in the US by a year or two. Really needs to fill out.
#30
  1. Isaiah Stewart- Washington: Great size/length package (6'9" 245-250, +7 wingspan). Sufficiently quick to stay in front of smaller players, the size/strength to hold his own against behemoths. Prototype C for the pace & space era (although as I noted earlier in the thread, I think that Oscar Tshiebwe will be better, pity he decided to hold off a year). He needs to get over his belief that he's a primary option, offensively, and focus on improving his jumper. Effective screener.
  2. Robert Woodard III- Mississippi: Another guy with a great size/length package (6'7" 230-235 +6 wingspan). He's bouncy, athletic, plays tough, hardnosed D. Never gives up on plays defensively (has some great chase down blocks in his highlight reel). Improving as a three point shooter. High floor as a guy that's a rotation player, his ceiling is as elite 3&D big wing.
  3. Paul Reed- DePaul: If I had confidence that he could put on another 25lbs of mass I'd list him as another prototypical pace & space C. Great height/length (6'9" +5 wingspan). But he looks thin in the shoulders, hips, and wrists, so I'm not sure he has a lot more room for growth past his present 220. Great hands, hard working defender. The shooting motion needs major cleanup, but he's made it work on catch & shoot treys. Very low chance of busting out, will be an NBA rotation player for years to come. At 245 he's a starting C.
  4. Cassius Stanley- Duke: Old for his class (he just turned 21). Very raw. Makes a lot of 18 year old mistakes for someone his age. Tends to get tunnel vision on offense. Is going to whistled for a lot of charging calls as he figures things out. On the bright side he's instant offense off the bench. Good three point shot and a great transition player.
#47
  1. Xavier Tillman- Michigan State: Rotation big, mostly a C. The lack of height will leave him floating into the second round. He's 6'8" (maybe) 245-250 with a +5 wingspan. Not the most athletic player, but capable of growing into a C in the Theis mode. His upside would be similar to Theis's, but that's great value at 47.
  2. Jay Scrubb- Some Junior College You've Never Heard of and Will Never Hear Mentioned Again in Your Lifetime: Allegedly 6'6" with a +3 wingspan. Monster athlete. Way too athletic for JUCO players to guard, so it's tough to get a read on him. The shot needs work, the handle needs tightening, and you need to convince him to defend with his head rather than his body. But if you could harness those gifts you could have an all star. Or he could just be a rotation player. Or Javonte Green v2.0. Or out of the NBA in three years. Lots of variance here.
  3. Immanuel Quickley- Kentucky: I hate the release point on the jumper. It's like he launches it at chin level. There's no way that works in the NBA for a guy that's 6'3". On other hand, great size/length package (6'3" 190 +5 wingspan), decent athleticism, pretty skilled. He's a long-term Wanamaker replacement. Strong, long G that handles well enough for a PG and isn't huntable on D.
  4. Mason Jones- Arkansas: I like him more than Isaiah Joe. Just a ridiculous three point shooter. If you want an end of the rotation player that you can throw in there to rain death down on the other team from the parking garage three blocks away, he's your guy.
  5. Isaiah Joe- Arkansas: Same as above. Not as strong as Jones, though. More athletic.

As of today my dream draft would be Hampton at #14 and McDaniels at #26 as the homerun swings and then Woodard at #30 and Tillman at #47 as the safe picks.
 
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oumbi

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Jun 15, 2006
3,083
Many thanks Nighthob for a very interested read on the players. It took a lot of work I can tell.

I was a bit surprised to not see Bane as part of the late first round possibilities. Would you be provide me with your thoughts on him? Thanks.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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I see Bane as a sort of poor man's Nesmith. Less defensive ability, not as good as a shooter. He just missed the cut for me at 26. You can probably add him to my list at #30, though. He's in the safety pick category for me.

EDIT: I should probably have listed the criteria, the guys on the 14 list were chosen from guys mocked in the 11-20 range looking at KOC in the Ringer, Tankathon, NBC, Sports Illustrated, and NBA Draft Room. The list at 26 was generated from guys in the 20-35 range, at 30 25-50 and 47 40+.
 
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BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Awesome stuff, nighthob and much appreciated. Based on your list, I would go the following:

14

Nesmith: I’m biased because family members went to Vandy but I have fallen in love with his shot and after our shooting issues in the playoffs, I want an assassin out there. It’s more of a “safe” pick but if you’ve got the Jay’s breaking down defenses for next decade, you need a Nesmith.

26

McDaniels: Going for the jugular with this one with the toolsy prospect. Needs a Perkins redshirt year before he can even hope to contribute but the potential is there.

30

Bolmaro: Hope he lasts this long. Huge Manu fan and I see some of Manu in this kid’s game. Every Argentinian kid must have emulated him the past 2 decades. Crafty player who may not be in NBA for a couple years. Perfect pick for us.

47

Scrubb: How could we not want another Jay with a fun last name in the event he sucks? I was a huge Kedrick Brown fan and I want a do over. Forget TLC, I do want some Scrubb’s.
 

DannyDarwinism

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As the draft is seven weeks away these lists are not final, I will undoubtedly change my mind a dozen times between now and then. That being said these are my preliminary lists for guys I like at each spot (going by the mock consensuses, with the caveat that they might all be full of shit).

#14
  1. R.J. Hampton- KBA: I keep rewatching the workout footage. If you watch his his high school tape his jumper looks a lot like LaMelo Ball's; severe elbow drift, the shot's never squared off, his footwork is awful, and the motion's never in synch with his jump. On the bright side he had a pretty quick release and despite all the moving parts could get the shot off against anyone. He's used his time off to rebuild the shot completely (under Mike Miller's tutelage). Elbow's tight, shooting motion pure and straight, solid base when he goes up, and the shot's in synch with the jump (no more hitch at the top of the motion). The new release is slow. But I expect it to improve as muscle memory for the new motion improves. He's still 6'4"/6'5" with a plus wingspan and athletic. You can groom him as the PG of the future knowing that you have a guy that can't be hunted defensively (so long as Boston's defensive culture takes).
  2. Patrick Williams- FSU: He's got Tatum's size/length (reportedly 6'8" +3 wingspan) in a stronger frame (he's 225-230 now). Athletic, explosive, bouncy. The shooting motion's OK. He definitely has a lot of promise as the big wing to pair with the J-Crew. The problem? The worst defensive footwork I've ever seen. His footwork's so bad I can't even tell whether or not he's laterally quick. Even more raw than Jaylen when he showed up in Boston. He could be anything from the next Kawhi to the next Marquis Chriss.
  3. Aaron Nesmith- Vandy: The Shootist. A good pure jumpshot that will rain death on opponents that don't stick to him. Not the most athletic player, but long (6'6" +4 wingspan) and a hard worker. He might not become a defensive asset, but he won't be a liability either.
  4. Saddiq Bey- Villanova: Smart, not overly athletic, but quick enough to stay on front of guys. Very heady defender. Not a pure shooter, the jumper has a slow release and the motion's less than ideal. So catch & shoot only. He's a rotation player from day one with an upside of elite 3&D wing.
  5. Ty Terry- Stanford: The Shootist Jr. Allegedly 6'3" (in shoes) and 180 now. This will make him less of a defensive liability, but he's still going to get hunted on D. The jumper makes it all worthwhile.
#26
  1. Jaden McDaniels- Washington: The more I watch him the more I like his potential. Height/length package is elite (6'10"/7'0). But he might weigh 190. And I'm probably being generous. His height/length combined with his high release point make his jumper effectively unblockable. His handle is already better than the J-Crew's. Defensively he's versatile, but prone to letting his length and quickness do the work (I've been skeptical of guys like this post-Wiggins). If he could reach 230 (while maintaining his athleticism) he might be the perfect complement to Jayson and Jaylen.
  2. Josh Green- Arizona: Stone cold killer in the Marcus Smart mold. Great physical gifts (6'6" 210 +4/+5 wingspan) and the will to use them. Destroyer of passing lanes. Offensively he's a great transition player. The shot, however, needs a lot of work. The raw 3FG% looks OK, but he's strictly catch & shoot given the form and slow release. But if he could fix the shot you'd have the ability to throw two Marcuses at opponents.
  3. Jalen Smith- Maryland: He's got a great height/length package (6'10" +3/+4 wingspan). He even has decent size at 225. Not terribly athletic, though, and might need to add 20-25lbs in order to play C. Which might be his only spot. Rotation big floor. But good rotation big might be his ceiling.
  4. Theo Maledon- France: The right handed Killian Hayes. Although unlike Hayes he can finish off himself with his off hand. Great height/length combo (6'4" +5 wingspan). But he's 175-180 tops. He seriously needs another 20-30lbs to take the pounding at the NBA level. He's smooth and shifty which allows him to leave defenders in the dust even though he never looks like he's exploding (a lot like Tatum in that his movement makes him look like he's gliding).
  5. Leandro Bolmaro- Spain: Argentine national. He's very shifty with the ball in his hands and changes directions on a dime. Picture Tyler Herro with less scoring but more offensive versatility. Contract issues might delay his arrival in the US by a year or two. Really needs to fill out.
#30
  1. Isaiah Stewart- Washington: Great size/length package (6'9" 245-250, +7 wingspan). Sufficiently quick to stay in front of smaller players, the size/strength to hold his own against behemoths. Prototype C for the pace & space era (although as I noted earlier in the thread, I think that Oscar Tshiebwe will be better, pity he decided to hold off a year). He needs to get over his belief that he's a primary option, offensively, and focus on improving his jumper. Effective screener.
  2. Robert Woodard III- Mississippi: Another guy with a great size/length package (6'7" 230-235 +6 wingspan). He's bouncy, athletic, plays tough, hardnosed D. Never gives up on plays defensively (has some great chase down blocks in his highlight reel). Improving as a three point shooter. High floor as a guy that's a rotation player, his ceiling is as elite 3&D big wing.
  3. Paul Reed- DePaul: If I had confidence that he could put on another 25lbs of mass I'd list him as another prototypical pace & space C. Great height/length (6'9" +5 wingspan). But he looks thin in the shoulders, hips, and wrists, so I'm not sure he has a lot more room for growth past his present 220. Great hands, hard working defender. The shooting motion needs major cleanup, but he's made it work on catch & shoot treys. Very low chance of busting out, will be an NBA rotation player for years to come. At 245 he's a starting C.
  4. Cassius Stanley- Duke: Old for his class (he just turned 21). Very raw. Makes a lot of 18 year old mistakes for someone his age. Tends to get tunnel vision on offense. Is going to whistled for a lot of charging calls as he figures things out. On the bright side he's instant offense off the bench. Good three point shot and a great transition player.
#47
  1. Xavier Tillman- Michigan State: Rotation big, mostly a C. The lack of height will leave him floating into the second round. He's 6'8" (maybe) 245-250 with a +5 wingspan. Not the most athletic player, but capable of growing into a C in the Theis mode. His upside would be similar to Theis's, but that's great value at 47.
  2. Jay Scrubb- Some Junior College You've Never Heard of and Will Never Hear Mentioned Again in Your Lifetime: Allegedly 6'6" with a +3 wingspan. Monster athlete. Way too athletic for JUCO players to guard, so it's tough to get a read on him. The shot needs work, the handle needs tightening, and you need to convince him to defend with his head rather than his body. But if you could harness those gifts you could have an all star. Or he could just be a rotation player. Or Javonte Green v2.0. Or out of the NBA in three years. Lots of variance here.
  3. Immanuel Quickley- Kentucky: I hate the release point on the jumper. It's like he launches it at chin level. There's no way that works in the NBA for a guy that's 6'3". On other hand, great size/length package (6'3" 190 +5 wingspan), decent athleticism, pretty skilled. He's a long-term Wanamaker replacement. Strong, long G that handles well enough for a PG and isn't huntable on D.
  4. Mason Jones- Arkansas: I like him more than Isaiah Joe. Just a ridiculous three point shooter. If you want an end of the rotation player that you can throw in there to rain death down on the other team from the parking garage three blocks away, he's your guy.
  5. Isaiah Joe- Arkansas: Same as above. Not as strong as Jones, though. More athletic.

As of today my dream draft would be Hampton at #14 and McDaniels at #26 as the homerun swings and then Woodard at #30 and Tillman at #47 as the safe picks.
I’d be very happy with that haul, even though in pretty bearish on Jaden.


I'm not surprised you're off Bane given his subpar athleticism and wingspan, and your general approach over the years, but he's a better defender, and a much better passer than Nesmith.

Broadly though, I’ve always been into heady guys, particularly guards, but more than ever now and with this team specifically and our need for cheap rotation guys, I'm interested in guys that can really "think the game" and process quickly, even at the expense of measurables.There's always those types later in drafts, and this year Bane, Tillman, Tillie, Tre Jones, Malachi Flynn, Winston are the guys that I think qualify. I still can't get off Stewart, Woodard, Jalen Smith and Reed (and especially Kira Lewis, though that'd have to be at 14) given their upsides, and Josh Green screams Ainge target to me with his strength, athleticism, and reported work ethic, but I'm honestly more confident that Tre Jones will have a long NBA career than I am with the majority of the guys in the lottery based on his feel for the game on offense and elite defense. And if he shoots, I think he can absolutely start at PG for a team like the Celtics. Everything I've read about the kid indicates he's one of the most competitive people you'll ever meet (maybe as a result of being the baby bro of a basketball family), so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets there.

On the flip side, I just don't think Casius Stanley is ever going to process the game quickly enough to be anything more than Gerald Green. Sometimes it's hard to tell- a specific situation can really hide a guy's natural talent or potential for growth, as we've seen with a bunch of the Kentucky guards or a guy who played with terrible spacing like Jaylen at Cal- so hopefully there's enough AAU or circuit tape (like Cole Anthony) to get a good sense of the kid in another context- but man, if a guard doesn't stand out in the mental aspect of the game in college, it's a pretty significant red flag for his ability to play winning basketball in the NBA.

Anyway, for what it's worth, there's some recent video of your dude Scrubb's jumper looking pure as the driven snow and I gotta admit, I'm intrigued. He might replace Paul Eboua as my second round mystery box du jour.
 
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benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,346
Santa Monica
As the draft is seven weeks away these lists are not final, I will undoubtedly change my mind a dozen times between now and then. That being said these are my preliminary lists for guys I like at each spot (going by the mock consensuses, with the caveat that they might all be full of shit).

#14
  1. R.J. Hampton- KBA: I keep rewatching the workout footage. If you watch his his high school tape his jumper looks a lot like LaMelo Ball's; severe elbow drift, the shot's never squared off, his footwork is awful, and the motion's never in synch with his jump. On the bright side he had a pretty quick release and despite all the moving parts could get the shot off against anyone. He's used his time off to rebuild the shot completely (under Mike Miller's tutelage). Elbow's tight, shooting motion pure and straight, solid base when he goes up, and the shot's in synch with the jump (no more hitch at the top of the motion). The new release is slow. But I expect it to improve as muscle memory for the new motion improves. He's still 6'4"/6'5" with a plus wingspan and athletic. You can groom him as the PG of the future knowing that you have a guy that can't be hunted defensively (so long as Boston's defensive culture takes).
  2. Patrick Williams- FSU: He's got Tatum's size/length (reportedly 6'8" +3 wingspan) in a stronger frame (he's 225-230 now). Athletic, explosive, bouncy. The shooting motion's OK. He definitely has a lot of promise as the big wing to pair with the J-Crew. The problem? The worst defensive footwork I've ever seen. His footwork's so bad I can't even tell whether or not he's laterally quick. Even more raw than Jaylen when he showed up in Boston. He could be anything from the next Kawhi to the next Marquis Chriss.
  3. Aaron Nesmith- Vandy: The Shootist. A good pure jumpshot that will rain death on opponents that don't stick to him. Not the most athletic player, but long (6'6" +4 wingspan) and a hard worker. He might not become a defensive asset, but he won't be a liability either.
  4. Saddiq Bey- Villanova: Smart, not overly athletic, but quick enough to stay on front of guys. Very heady defender. Not a pure shooter, the jumper has a slow release and the motion's less than ideal. So catch & shoot only. He's a rotation player from day one with an upside of elite 3&D wing.
  5. Ty Terry- Stanford: The Shootist Jr. Allegedly 6'3" (in shoes) and 180 now. This will make him less of a defensive liability, but he's still going to get hunted on D. The jumper makes it all worthwhile.
#26
  1. Jaden McDaniels- Washington: The more I watch him the more I like his potential. Height/length package is elite (6'10"/7'0). But he might weigh 190. And I'm probably being generous. His height/length combined with his high release point make his jumper effectively unblockable. His handle is already better than the J-Crew's. Defensively he's versatile, but prone to letting his length and quickness do the work (I've been skeptical of guys like this post-Wiggins). If he could reach 230 (while maintaining his athleticism) he might be the perfect complement to Jayson and Jaylen.
  2. Josh Green- Arizona: Stone cold killer in the Marcus Smart mold. Great physical gifts (6'6" 210 +4/+5 wingspan) and the will to use them. Destroyer of passing lanes. Offensively he's a great transition player. The shot, however, needs a lot of work. The raw 3FG% looks OK, but he's strictly catch & shoot given the form and slow release. But if he could fix the shot you'd have the ability to throw two Marcuses at opponents.
  3. Jalen Smith- Maryland: He's got a great height/length package (6'10" +3/+4 wingspan). He even has decent size at 225. Not terribly athletic, though, and might need to add 20-25lbs in order to play C. Which might be his only spot. Rotation big floor. But good rotation big might be his ceiling.
  4. Theo Maledon- France: The right handed Killian Hayes. Although unlike Hayes he can finish off himself with his off hand. Great height/length combo (6'4" +5 wingspan). But he's 175-180 tops. He seriously needs another 20-30lbs to take the pounding at the NBA level. He's smooth and shifty which allows him to leave defenders in the dust even though he never looks like he's exploding (a lot like Tatum in that his movement makes him look like he's gliding).
  5. Leandro Bolmaro- Spain: Argentine national. He's very shifty with the ball in his hands and changes directions on a dime. Picture Tyler Herro with less scoring but more offensive versatility. Contract issues might delay his arrival in the US by a year or two. Really needs to fill out.
#30
  1. Isaiah Stewart- Washington: Great size/length package (6'9" 245-250, +7 wingspan). Sufficiently quick to stay in front of smaller players, the size/strength to hold his own against behemoths. Prototype C for the pace & space era (although as I noted earlier in the thread, I think that Oscar Tshiebwe will be better, pity he decided to hold off a year). He needs to get over his belief that he's a primary option, offensively, and focus on improving his jumper. Effective screener.
  2. Robert Woodard III- Mississippi: Another guy with a great size/length package (6'7" 230-235 +6 wingspan). He's bouncy, athletic, plays tough, hardnosed D. Never gives up on plays defensively (has some great chase down blocks in his highlight reel). Improving as a three point shooter. High floor as a guy that's a rotation player, his ceiling is as elite 3&D big wing.
  3. Paul Reed- DePaul: If I had confidence that he could put on another 25lbs of mass I'd list him as another prototypical pace & space C. Great height/length (6'9" +5 wingspan). But he looks thin in the shoulders, hips, and wrists, so I'm not sure he has a lot more room for growth past his present 220. Great hands, hard working defender. The shooting motion needs major cleanup, but he's made it work on catch & shoot treys. Very low chance of busting out, will be an NBA rotation player for years to come. At 245 he's a starting C.
  4. Cassius Stanley- Duke: Old for his class (he just turned 21). Very raw. Makes a lot of 18 year old mistakes for someone his age. Tends to get tunnel vision on offense. Is going to whistled for a lot of charging calls as he figures things out. On the bright side he's instant offense off the bench. Good three point shot and a great transition player.
#47
  1. Xavier Tillman- Michigan State: Rotation big, mostly a C. The lack of height will leave him floating into the second round. He's 6'8" (maybe) 245-250 with a +5 wingspan. Not the most athletic player, but capable of growing into a C in the Theis mode. His upside would be similar to Theis's, but that's great value at 47.
  2. Jay Scrubb- Some Junior College You've Never Heard of and Will Never Hear Mentioned Again in Your Lifetime: Allegedly 6'6" with a +3 wingspan. Monster athlete. Way too athletic for JUCO players to guard, so it's tough to get a read on him. The shot needs work, the handle needs tightening, and you need to convince him to defend with his head rather than his body. But if you could harness those gifts you could have an all star. Or he could just be a rotation player. Or Javonte Green v2.0. Or out of the NBA in three years. Lots of variance here.
  3. Immanuel Quickley- Kentucky: I hate the release point on the jumper. It's like he launches it at chin level. There's no way that works in the NBA for a guy that's 6'3". On other hand, great size/length package (6'3" 190 +5 wingspan), decent athleticism, pretty skilled. He's a long-term Wanamaker replacement. Strong, long G that handles well enough for a PG and isn't huntable on D.
  4. Mason Jones- Arkansas: I like him more than Isaiah Joe. Just a ridiculous three point shooter. If you want an end of the rotation player that you can throw in there to rain death down on the other team from the parking garage three blocks away, he's your guy.
  5. Isaiah Joe- Arkansas: Same as above. Not as strong as Jones, though. More athletic.

As of today my dream draft would be Hampton at #14 and McDaniels at #26 as the homerun swings and then Woodard at #30 and Tillman at #47 as the safe picks.
Can you please take Austin's place in the draft room?

According to your availability, Nesmith/Bolmaro(stash)/Woodard/Quickley would be my choice.
 

Jimbodandy

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I've unposted this thought a handful of times in the last week, but I'm curious what you guys think.

Danny has historically gone for the NBA body in his lottery/near-lottery picks (length, explosiveness, or both) and worried about the skills/shot as part of development, and he has taken the high floor guys with the non-lottery, deeper firsts. Obviously there are exceptions, but this is the majority. So it seems more likely to me that he shoots the moon at #14 on a guy with "all-NBA wing" ceiling than take a bucket like Nesmith at 14.

So two questions, I guess...am I jumping to a conclusion? And if not, which guy at 14 is that "could be an 11th man, but could also be a top-15 player in a few years" player, in the board's opinion?
 
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Sam Ray Not

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I've unposted this thought a handful of times in the last week, but I'm curious what you guys think.

Danny has historically gone for the NBA body in his lottery/near-lottery picks (length, explosiveness, or both) and worried about the skills/shot as part of development, and he has taken the high floor guys with the non-lottery, deeper firsts. Obviously there are exceptions, but this is the majority. So it seems more likely to me that he shoots the moon at #14 on a guy with "all-NBA wing" ceiling than take a bucket like Nesmith at 14.

So two questions, I guess...am I jumping to a conclusion? And if not, which guy at 14 is that "could be an 11th man, but could also be a top-15 player in a few years" player, in the board's opinion?
Based on the scuttlebutt, the highest-ceiling guys in the #14 range would seem to be Aleksej Pokusevski and RJ Hampton, plus I guess the small, dynamic PGs (Cole Anthony, Kira Lewis, Tyrell Terry, e.g.)

But who knows ... sometimes the safe, “high floor” picks like Aaron Nesmith and Saddiq Bey turn out to have high ceilings, too. I’d put guys like Jimmy Butler, Malcolm Brogdon, and Draymond Green in that category.
 

JakeRae

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I've unposted this thought a handful of times in the last week, but I'm curious what you guys think.

Danny has historically gone for the NBA body in his lottery/near-lottery picks (length, explosiveness, or both) and worried about the skills/shot as part of development, and he has taken the high floor guys with the non-lottery, deeper firsts. Obviously there are exceptions, but this is the majority. So it seems more likely to me that he shoots the moon at #14 on a guy with "all-NBA wing" ceiling than take a bucket like Nesmith at 14.

So two questions, I guess...am I jumping to a conclusion? And if not, which guy at 14 is that "could be an 11th man, but could also be a top-15 player in a few years" player, in the board's opinion?
I don’t think that’s necessarily accurate. Danny picked Olynyk in the late lottery and Tatum also doesn’t fit the mold you are describing. I think the more consistent theme for Ainge in the draft is that he places a really high value on work ethic. That’s what ties Brown, Tatum, and Smart together and it also seems true of Langford and Grant Williams. I don’t think it is an exclusive quality though. Robert Williams was not drafted because of his work ethic reputation but because of his skills and athleticism.

If you’re looking at high ceiling players that might be available at 14, my sense is that Williams, Terry, Hampton, and Poku are the guys, all of whom have very different pathways to realizing their ceiling, with Terry’s ceiling being dependent on having actually added the size he’s rumored to have added.

I also know Poku isn’t popular around these parts, but elite skills are every bit as rare as elite athleticism. Or, put differently, people are very down of skinny, tall, skilled Europeans because the last one didn’t succeed, but plenty of high athleticism low skill players never develop skills and fail too. I’m not really advocating for Poku, but I do think too many are writing him off.
 

nighthob

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Danny has historically gone for the NBA body in his lottery/near-lottery picks (length, explosiveness, or both) and worried about the skills/shot as part of development, and he has taken the high floor guys with the non-lottery, deeper firsts. Obviously there are exceptions, but this is the majority. So it seems more likely to me that he shoots the moon at #14 on a guy with "all-NBA wing" ceiling than take a bucket like Nesmith at 14.
In general terms this is correct, in the top half of the draft he looks for guys that fit a physical profile. He likes players that are long, athletic, and strong. The latter two being in their functional sense (some guys test out as athletic monsters, but if it's not in game athleticism he isn't interested). Tatum doesn't look explosive, yet he devours as much court space as guys that look quicker. He also has a lot of functional strength, despite his lack of girth (which is why I think that McDaniels might be their choice later if he makes it to #26).

He also likes guys that dominated in high school even if they struggled in college, like Langford (who also fits the profile with his smooth athleticism and his +6/+7 wingspan). He also likes gym rats as you can count on those guys bleeding every ounce of performance out of their bodies.

As for Nesmith, he might have Klay Thompsonesque upside if he takes to Boston's defensive culture. (Because his defense is pretty terrible now, even if he has the ability to be an average/above average defender). Last year, for example, they had given a promise to Tyler Herro before Miami tabbed him (and add Herro to Boston's roster and I think that they're 1-1 with the Lakers in the finals).

So two questions, I guess...am I jumping to a conclusion? And if not, which guy at 14 is that "could be an 11th man, but could also be a top-15 player in a few years" player, in the board's opinion?
Well, I gave my list above. I think that Hampton really fits that profile if the rebuilt jumper is for real and he becomes a legit three level scorer and playmaker.

Based on the scuttlebutt, the highest-ceiling guys in the #14 range would seem to be Aleksej Pokusevski and RJ Hampton, plus I guess the small, dynamic PGs (Cole Anthony, Kira Lewis, Tyrell Terry, e.g.)
I doubt that Ainge thinks Poky has a future on his first NBA contract, so I doubt he drafts him. Anthony doesn't really fit the profile of 1s that he likes, Lewis and Terry do (and Boston's interviewed Terry at least). I think they're definitely on Boston's radar.

I don’t think that’s necessarily accurate. Danny picked Olynyk in the late lottery and Tatum also doesn’t fit the mold you are describing. I think the more consistent theme for Ainge in the draft is that he places a really high value on work ethic. That’s what ties Brown, Tatum, and Smart together and it also seems true of Langford and Grant Williams. I don’t think it is an exclusive quality though. Robert Williams was not drafted because of his work ethic reputation but because of his skills and athleticism.
It depends on whether or not they have multiple picks, I posted about this earlier in the thread (too lazy to look it up), but their overall tendency on multi pick drafts is to choose high ceiling athletic players early and then safer high floor guys in the mid first and later. There are always exceptions, like Olynyk, but I blame that on their pursuit of Kevin Love (Minnesota was rumored to be looking for a higher pick in '13 in order to pick KRex, then Boston traded up to land Olynyk themselves).

James Young was another exception in that they'd already drafted Smart at #6 at still went for the homerun swing at #17 with a higher floor guy like Gary Harris sitting right there. But in that case Young checked so many Ainge boxes that I don't think that Danny could resist (long, strong, athletic, high school All American that could shoot out to about 28').

And Tatum absolutely fits Danny's profile, right down to in game strength and athleticism.

I also know Poku isn’t popular around these parts, but elite skills are every bit as rare as elite athleticism. Or, put differently, people are very down of skinny, tall, skilled Europeans because the last one didn’t succeed, but plenty of high athleticism low skill players never develop skills and fail too. I’m not really advocating for Poku, but I do think too many are writing him off.
The problem with Poky is that he just can't defend on the perimeter, which means that he has to play C. At 7' 190. I'm not seeing a lot of paths for him to be much more than a situational big man, which is terrible value in the mid first. You can find situational bigs in the second round.
 

nighthob

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Anyway, for what it's worth, there's some recent video of your dude Scrubb's jumper looking pure as the driven snow and I gotta admit, I'm intrigued. He might replace Paul Eboua as my second round mystery box du jour.
I’ve watched that Ethika footage of Scrubb, the shot looks better, but there’s a real paucity of footage in that regard, which makes me suspicious. It reminds me of all the “Omigod look at Markelle’s new jumper!!!” videos.

However, that being said, it’s good that he’s there working on his game because he’s a big time athlete, and that’s something you can’t learn.
 

bakahump

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Other then "Its always been that way" or "thats the way it works in the NBA" can someone explain why we "need" to trade our picks and get a(/some) veteran role players.

1. I get that our picks could turn out to be something or more likely nothing.
2. The argument always seems to be that your "young Stars" need someone to show them how to "win in the NBA". Our young stars have had deep playoff runs for the last 4 years.
3. Couldnt "Drafting young to add" to a young core extend the window?
4. As opposed to "We are old(er) and experienced AND expensive so lets draft young to extend the window."


Basically I get it has never been done before. But I would also say its also been EXTREMELY RARE to have 2 young 21-23 Year old stars (and an additional "Role player on steroids") locked up with this much regular and Post season experience on a winning team.

Why couldnt Danny keep the picks add to the young ones and hope/assume Jason and Jalen and Marcus (along with Kemba and Gordon) will provide plenty of leadership and killer instinct moving forward. (Granted they seemed not to have it this past playoff run....).

Would that extend the window?
 

NomarsFool

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If one of the perceived needs is just "sharpshooter off the bench" - it would seem to me that that is a fairly predictable skillset when drafting a young player. Of course, it's not foolproof - but the TPMLE players hardly seem like sure things, either.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Other then "Its always been that way" or "thats the way it works in the NBA" can someone explain why we "need" to trade our picks and get a(/some) veteran role players.

1. I get that our picks could turn out to be something or more likely nothing.
2. The argument always seems to be that your "young Stars" need someone to show them how to "win in the NBA". Our young stars have had deep playoff runs for the last 4 years.
3. Couldnt "Drafting young to add" to a young core extend the window?
4. As opposed to "We are old(er) and experienced AND expensive so lets draft young to extend the window."


Basically I get it has never been done before. But I would also say its also been EXTREMELY RARE to have 2 young 21-23 Year old stars (and an additional "Role player on steroids") locked up with this much regular and Post season experience on a winning team.

Why couldnt Danny keep the picks add to the young ones and hope/assume Jason and Jalen and Marcus (along with Kemba and Gordon) will provide plenty of leadership and killer instinct moving forward. (Granted they seemed not to have it this past playoff run....).

Would that extend the window?
Everything about this team should be built around Tatum/Brown' timeline. They are basically untradeable at this point.

That's why the Kemba signing was so shocking at the time
 

bakahump

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I get that @benhogan and totally agree. My question (probably badly stated) is why only focus on Vets and "ring chasers" to round out the team? Why not continue to bring in young players through the draft (hopefully hitting on 1 role player every year).

Keeps the team as young and cheap as possible with the only players you really "let age" is Tatum and Brown. As opposed to Vets who while "only cot the MLE" technically cost much more then that when Tax is factored in.

Are vets (available with MLE) really that much of an upgrade of a young player?