2020 NFL: Wk.16 Game Thread

mauf

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I’m surprised people are ripping Gruden. Running down the clock was the right play. I’m sure whatever scheme the defensive staff called didn’t call for a receiver to be left wide open along the sideline. And even if that happened, they probably survive without the inexcusable roughing penalty. It wasn’t a coaching fail; it was just a colossal failure to execute.
 

luckiestman

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Well if Steelers are 11-5, Browns win the division unless the Browns lose to the Jets tomorrow. Steelers have clinched a playoff spot.
the browns are down a bunch of WRs to Jesters tomorrow so still likely to win but not as obvious as it was before the plague hit them
 

Mystic Merlin

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I’m surprised people are ripping Gruden. Running down the clock was the right play. I’m sure whatever scheme the defensive staff called didn’t call for a receiver to be left wide open along the sideline. And even if that happened, they probably survive without the inexcusable roughing penalty. It wasn’t a coaching fail; it was just a colossal failure to execute.
The counter is that a TD plus a two pointer (a 50/50 proposition) puts LV up seven, meaning they’re likely to be at worst in a tie if MIA scores a TD off a possession that starts with about 1:02 left and no TO. You likely need several catastrophic plays, or a Hail Mary, for that to happen.

Instead they only needed one catastrophic play for a game losing FG.
 

luckiestman

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Is there a web page for nfl playoffs tiebreaker scenarios? Not the rules, I found that, but something like the nba trade machines
 

Cellar-Door

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I’m surprised people are ripping Gruden. Running down the clock was the right play. I’m sure whatever scheme the defensive staff called didn’t call for a receiver to be left wide open along the sideline. And even if that happened, they probably survive without the inexcusable roughing penalty. It wasn’t a coaching fail; it was just a colossal failure to execute.
I'm not sure it's the right play.

I would guess that 1 minute or less to go 65 yards and score a TD with no TOs is a lower probability occurrence for an NFL team than going 35-45 yards and kicking a FG in 19 seconds
 

RedOctober3829

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Once you get down to the 1, go for the TD. People say it’s the right analytical play don’t take into account the fact there could also be a bad snap on a FG which is the same as saying a fumble could occur on a run play for the TD. Or the fact that you’d force Miami to go the length of the field to win instead of some weird stuff happening and putting a GW FG in play. Even if what happens doesn’t, there could have been a PI or something else crazy. I’ll take my chances with :30 extra and having to go the length of the field any day.
 

Ale Xander

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hmmmm, do we want a 5 or 7 point lead or a 2 point lead? Let's take a 2 point lead. And then lets rough the QB.

This is the dumbest team ever.
 

RedOctober3829

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I’m surprised people are ripping Gruden. Running down the clock was the right play. I’m sure whatever scheme the defensive staff called didn’t call for a receiver to be left wide open along the sideline. And even if that happened, they probably survive without the inexcusable roughing penalty. It wasn’t a coaching fail; it was just a colossal failure to execute.
It’s now happened twice in a month under his watch. He’s getting paid $100 million to not lose games like this.
 

Jungleland

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With kickoffs at the 25 yard line the receiving team is literally 1 play from field goal range at any given time...there's almost no scenario anymore where I'd ever play for less than a 3 point lead and this is exactly why. Not running at the 1 there is indefensible imo.
 

shawnrbu

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Miami gained 49 yards on one play counting the penalty yardage to go from their 25 to the Raider 26. Dolphins would have had plenty of time to score a TD if the Raiders scored on 3rd and Goal.

I still would have tried to score the TD, but the bigger fail was the defense folding.

Edit: Forgot the Raiders could have gone for 2 to make it 30-23. Had to try to score the TD.
 

54thMA

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If MIA/BAL/CLE are 11-5, Cleveland is eliminated. If it’s just MIA/BAL, then Miami goes to the playoffs. Baltimore could still get in at 11-5 as long as the Colts or Browns lose once or Titans lose twice.

Buffalo has the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh.
The poor Browns, they could up with their best record since the Civil War and still miss the playoffs.

The Ravens, who used to be the Browns, would get in at their expense.

Yup, that franchise truly is cursed...................
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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I'm not sure it's the right play.

I would guess that 1 minute or less to go 65 yards and score a TD with no TOs is a lower probability occurrence for an NFL team than going 35-45 yards and kicking a FG in 19 seconds
It’s probably pretty close. Considering the defense had surrendered 75 yards on 3 plays the last time it was on the field, I would’ve opted to make them hold the fort for the shortest possible time. I certainly agree that reasonable opinion can differ.
 

Mystic Merlin

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It’s probably pretty close. Considering the defense had surrendered 75 yards on 3 plays the last time it was on the field, I would’ve opted to make them hold the fort for the shortest possible time. I certainly agree that reasonable opinion can differ.
The clincher to me is the fact LV could plausibly go up 7 if they score a TD from the one.

There is a non trivial chance MIA misses the XP, and realistic worst case you go to OT.
 

mauf

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It’s now happened twice in a month under his watch. He’s getting paid $100 million to not lose games like this.
Totally legit to say it’s on Gruden for not creating a better culture over the past three years. I was reacting to the criticism of his tactical choices, which I thought were fine. This isn’t Gregg Williams calling an all-out blitz with 10 seconds left, or even BB putting Gronk at free safety on that hook-and-ladder play in Miami a couple years ago.
 

RedOctober3829

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Totally legit to say it’s on Gruden for not creating a better culture over the past three years. I was reacting to the criticism of his tactical choices, which I thought were fine. This isn’t Gregg Williams calling an all-out blitz with 10 seconds left, or even BB putting Gronk at free safety on that hook-and-ladder play in Miami a couple years ago.
The scheme on the pass play was bad too tho. The corner on Hollins stopped to pick up a back in the flat that was non existent. He should’ve passed him off to the safety further down the field.
 

sodenj5

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With kickoffs at the 25 yard line the receiving team is literally 1 play from field goal range at any given time...there's almost no scenario anymore where I'd ever play for less than a 3 point lead and this is exactly why. Not running at the 1 there is indefensible imo.
This is where I am. At the very least, I try and score on third down and kick the FG on 4th. A 2 point lead is not enough in the NFL to be avoiding the end zone like it’s COVID.

Maybe 35 seconds of game clock difference, but you force Miami to score a TD from 75 yards out with no timeouts.
 

sodenj5

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The scheme on the pass play was bad too tho. The corner on Hollins stopped to pick up a back in the flat that was non existent. He should’ve passed him off to the safety further down the field.
How do you run cover 2 in a Hailmary situation? Like who TF cares if a back catches a check down and picks up 10?
 

Ed Hillel

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You gotta try to score. If we stipulate it’s even odds between going 75 yards in a minute and 35 yards in 20 seconds, you definitely go for the scenario where half the time it’s to maintain a 1 point lead as opposed to 100% where it’s to face a 1 point deficit.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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If Fitz doesn’t start, Flores should be fired
The thing about Fitz-magic is it can quickly turn into Fitz-tragic. Flores used him in the right spot. The 4th quarter of a must win game to spark the offense. Starting him in Week 17 and possibly the playoffs is asking for trouble.
 

Cellar-Door

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It’s probably pretty close. Considering the defense had surrendered 75 yards on 3 plays the last time it was on the field, I would’ve opted to make them hold the fort for the shortest possible time. I certainly agree that reasonable opinion can differ.
I think the fact that you could go up by 7 with the 2 pt conversion makes it a clear better option to try and score the TD, that means the arguably harder task is to get a tie not a win.

Also key is that as long as you don't give up a long TD, you can eat up a lot of time with players getting set.

Up less than 3, basically any long play puts you in a situation to lose.
Up 5, outside of a long TD, you have a much better shot at making a stop
Up 7, same but then you have the second chance to win on a missed XP or 2pt, and a made XP gets you overtime.

The more I consider it, the more obvious it seems that going for a TD on 3rd and goal would have been the better call.

And on the 75 yard drive.... that drive took 42 seconds with a 60 yard TD. Even a drive almost as bad, so long as you don't give up a long TD, you're really pressing the time, say as it looked like might happen, he gets caught at the 2 or 3 on a play like that (more likely on a final drive where you'd have safeties deeper.... that gives you 17 seconds to get all your guys 50 yards downfield and lined up... maybe you get 1 play off?
 

Gunfighter 09

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I’m assuming that’s execution. No way is the corner supposed to be coming up to defend the flat there.

In an interesting side note, the Raiders DB coach was not on the sideline tonight because he tested positive for COVID this morning.

So there was no one there to remind rookie Damon Arnette that he needed to not let a receiver run right by him up the sideline.
 

scottyno

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I'm not sure it's the right play.

I would guess that 1 minute or less to go 65 yards and score a TD with no TOs is a lower probability occurrence for an NFL team than going 35-45 yards and kicking a FG in 19 seconds
19 seconds with no timeouts? No way. You're asking the other team to gain 40 yards AND stop the clock when the entire defense knows that BOTH of those things need to happen in basically 1 play or the game is over. That should pretty much never ever happen.
 

johnmd20

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tims4wins

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Apologies if this was talked about in the thread, but on the Gaskin TD in the Miami game, should that not have been an illegal crackback block on 86 (I think 86, might have been 88) on Miami?

Edit: also, kudos to those of you who immediately recognized that 23-22 would not have been scorigami, I immediately thought of that 1996 game as well. An all time classic.
 

RedOctober3829

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You gotta try to score. If we stipulate it’s even odds between going 75 yards in a minute and 35 yards in 20 seconds, you definitely go for the scenario where half the time it’s to maintain a 1 point lead as opposed to 100% where it’s to face a 1 point deficit.
If I were coaching, I would want the scenario where if I score a TD and get the 2 point conversion the worst thing that could happen is overtime. Even if they don't get the 2 pt conversion, they have to score a TD to beat me with no timeouts and a little less than 1 minute left. In the era of the passing league and how the refs call pass interference(as we saw on that drive), it does not take much to get into FG range especially considering they are playing in perfect weather conditions with a kicker who has been money all year long. Even a non-crazy play that gets the ball to the 40 when it did last night they still only have to get 5 more yards for a decent FG attempt. I said it to my father in law as we were watching the game last night that they were making a mistake by not scoring a TD at the 1 yard line. Sure, if you want to waste the clock by doing what they did up until that point that's all well and good. That is smart. But, at the 1 yard line you really should try to score the TD. People argue that the FG eliminates the risk of a fumble. What about a bad snap for the FG or a blocked kick? I'd argue there is just as big of a risk that something could happen there also.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I enjoyed Kurt Warner's work on last night's game - I'd like to see him as a regular color commentator on Fox or CBS.
Agree very much with this - he had some Romo-like instincts and observations without Romo’s goofiness/over-excitement. My guess is if Warner wanted to be a regular commentator he’d be one already, though - have to guess he doesn’t want to deal with the travel, etc. throughout an entire season.
 

Humphrey

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I still think the inexcusable part of the play was grabbing the face mask- it had a major effect on the pass that was thrown (short) and the Miami guy reacted much better to that than the Raider guy. If it was more or less a normal pass the db's angle towards the ball was a hell of a lot better.
 

johnmd20

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And why would Gus Edwards ever get goalline carries over Dobbins? It is funny how teams use their worse players at the most important parts of the game. At least Sean Payton figured out that using Kamara actually results in good things.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Steelers pitching for sympathy based on their schedule...but they make no excuses....but srsly we got screwed. Go get fucked, they got to play a MASH unit Ravens team.
 

rymflaherty

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It sucks the Steelers have clinched, so they must control all tie breakers...they sure are playing like the team that should be left out. (I know if not them it would be Miami, but I’m biased on this one as a Dolphins fan)