2020 Pats: 2020 Roster & Beyond (non-QB edition)

BaseballJones

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I with @Super Nomario on this one.

If god forbid something should happen to James White, who is the pass catching back? Harris flashed a little bit of skill there in college, but so did Michel and he's been abysmal as a pass catcher thus far. Even if Michel shows dramatic improvement and Harris turns out to be a cromulent pass catching back, neither are likely to give you what Burkhead does in the passing game. When White was out last year in week 3 against the Jets, Burkhead played 74% of the offensive snaps, by far his highest total of the season (next highest was 46% in week one). He's a key cog on special teams as well. As Belichick always says, the more that a player can do, the more likely it is they're active on Sundays.

If Burkhead gets replaced, it's probably by either an UDFA or somebody who isn't currently on the roster. Which are both possibilities, but that likely wouldn't happen until they see how everyone looks in camp.
I want JJ Taylor to make the team, in part to be the receiving back to replace White if he gets hurt but also as a longer term replacement. Taylor has serious ability.
 

Super Nomario

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Nevermind the idea of Brady wanting JE11 on the Bucs, the guy he'd really want is White, who's in the final year of his deal.

I think what folks are glossing over -- understandably, considering how we haven't had to think about it in 20 years -- is that ANY pass-catcher's value to the Patriots at the moment is unknown ... until we see how much on-field chemistry they have with Stidham (or whoever will be the starter).

What made Edelman and White so invaluable for Brady is that each knew where the other would be at all times, and where they would be if protection or scheme broke down. This year is uncharted territory; we don't know how they will work in tandem.

Those two in particular won't fall off the radar, but it's not a given that their production or value in an offense not quarterbacked by Brady will be at the same levels we're used to seeing.
I think this is overblown. We have seen it to some degree, a little bit in 2016 and especially in 2008 when Brady was out. And if you want to go way back, 2000 with Bledsoe. Welker led the team in targets in 2008 with Cassel, Edelman led the team in targets in the four games Brady was suspended in 2016, Troy Brown was second in targets and yards in 2000 with Bledsoe (and had by far his best year up to that point). Kevin Faulk's targets were about the same with Bledsoe in 2000 and with Cassel in 2008 as they were with Brady in the intervening years, maybe even a little more. White was third in targets in 2016 when Brady was suspended (Martellus Bennett 2nd, Amendola 4th).

Edelman will likely be a little less effective next year, because he's 34 and because Stidham almost certainly won't be as good as Brady. I don't see a dramatic sea change in performance or distribution of targets barring injury, however. They're going to throw to the slot and the receiving back because it's built into the offense, and because the alternatives aren't great.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think this is overblown. We have seen it to some degree, a little bit in 2016 and especially in 2008 when Brady was out. And if you want to go way back, 2000 with Bledsoe. Welker led the team in targets in 2008 with Cassel, Edelman led the team in targets in the four games Brady was suspended in 2016, Troy Brown was second in targets and yards in 2000 with Bledsoe (and had by far his best year up to that point). Kevin Faulk's targets were about the same with Bledsoe in 2000 and with Cassel in 2008 as they were with Brady in the intervening years, maybe even a little more. White was third in targets in 2016 when Brady was suspended (Martellus Bennett 2nd, Amendola 4th).

Edelman will likely be a little less effective next year, because he's 34 and because Stidham almost certainly won't be as good as Brady. I don't see a dramatic sea change in performance or distribution of targets barring injury, however. They're going to throw to the slot and the receiving back because it's built into the offense, and because the alternatives aren't great.
I've read enough of your posts to know that you're far more knowledgeable than I am about football, but I would counter in this instance that your examples here are not on point.

They didn't overhaul the offense in 2016 to work to the strengths of JG or Brissett, because they knew TB12 was coming back. And Cassell had two seasons experience by 2008 to be able to run a similar offense.

Neither of those factors is relevant this coming year. McDaniels isn't going to force-fit Stidham into Brady's shoes. They'll see which pieces of the offense work best with him as QB and go from there. And we should be quick to dismiss he notion of QBs working better with some receivers than others. We've seen for 20 years that Brady had his pinkies and those he ignored. We don't know what sort of rapport he has with the current crop.

Of course they'll run plays to maximize the strengths of the personnel. But that doesn't mean that exact personnel that Brady utilized most frequently will be the same that will work with Stidham
 

tims4wins

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I've read enough of your posts to know that you're far more knowledgeable than I am about football, but I would counter in this instance that your examples here are not on point.

They didn't overhaul the offense in 2016 to work to the strengths of JG or Brissett, because they knew TB12 was coming back. And Cassell had two seasons experience by 2008 to be able to run a similar offense.

Neither of those factors is relevant this coming year. McDaniels isn't going to force-fit Stidham into Brady's shoes. They'll see which pieces of the offense work best with him as QB and go from there. And we should be quick to dismiss he notion of QBs working better with some receivers than others. We've seen for 20 years that Brady had his pinkies and those he ignored. We don't know what sort of rapport he has with the current crop.

Of course they'll run plays to maximize the strengths of the personnel. But that doesn't mean that exact personnel that Brady utilized most frequently will be the same that will work with Stidham
I'd argue the 2008 offense was WAY different than 2007. Cassell threw a lot more short passes in 2008 than Brady did in 2007.

In 2016, go back and watch the Brissett games. He is running option plays etc. It was a totally different offense.
 

Super Nomario

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They didn't overhaul the offense in 2016 to work to the strengths of JG or Brissett, because they knew TB12 was coming back. And Cassell had two seasons experience by 2008 to be able to run a similar offense.
If you go back to 2000 though, Troy Brown's targets / yards / catches all doubled, at the age of 29. So the focus on the slot was part of the offense from jump. And by the same token you can say "oh, they wouldn't have changed things for Garoppolo in 2016," they wouldn't have changed things for a neophyte Brady in 2001. This is a big part of the offense.

The other targets have generally fluctuated based on who was good. Brady had years where he threw to the TEs a ton and years where he threw to them not at all, years where he threw to the X a ton and years barely at all, etc.

And we should be quick to dismiss he notion of QBs working better with some receivers than others. We've seen for 20 years that Brady had his pinkies and those he ignored. We don't know what sort of rapport he has with the current crop.
This is the kind of logic that I think is overblown. Brady has thrown more to his good receivers than his bad receivers. I don't think it's about "binkies" or whatever. Julian Edelman is better at getting open than Matt LaCosse; of course he's getting the ball more. That's going to be true this year, too.
 

BaseballJones

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Just for fun....making a 53-man roster with the guys on the team right now (I'm counting the draftees and UDFA guys as being on the team right now)..

Offense (26)
QB - Stidham, Hoyer, Smith
RB - Michel, White, Harris, Taylor
FB - Vitale
WR - Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Lee, Meyers, Thomas, Slater
TE - Asiasi, Keefe, Izzo
T - Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste
G - Thuney, Mason, Onwenu
C - Andrews, Woodard

Defense (25)
Edge - Winovich, Uche, Simon
DL - Guy, Allen, Butler, Cowart, Coe
LB - Hightower, Bentley, Copeland, Calhoun, Jennings
CB - Gilmore, Jackson, JMcCourty, Bethel, Jones, Bryant, Williams
S - DMcCourty, Chung, Phillips, Dugger, Brooks/Gant

Specialists (2)
P - Bailey
K - Rohrwasser

Key special teamers include Vitale, Slater, Phillips, Brooks, Bethel, and Dugger.

Of course I know nothing about some of these players, and no idea if the character issues plaguing Thomas and even Coe are such that there's no way they'd make the team. But they are *talented* for sure. So just off the top of my head, I'd keep them on talent alone.

The offense I put together would have diversity at RB - traditional straight ahead runner in Michel, interesting potential in Harris, the skill of White, and Taylor can spell White or, in short bursts, Michel as a ballcarrier. They lack a hammer though. Vitale provides a versatile and athletic FB. At receiver, taking on Thomas gives them crazy speed and quickness that they otherwise have lacked. If he has his head on straight, that's a huge addition. Still, not an elite group by any means, but if healthy (big IF), they are decent enough. TE gets a huge boost from the two rookies, who I think are both better than anything they had in 2019. The OL if healthy should be very good. Depth is an issue. Just hoping that Woodard and Onwenu are better than the backups they had last year.

On D, this group is fast and versatile. Young too, with the additions of Uche, Coe, Jennings, Bryant, and Dugger. Other young guys include Winovich, Bentley, Cowart, Jones, and maybe Gant. They lack elite run-stuffers, but are quick to the ball, can get after the passer (Winovich, Simon, Uche, Butler, and Jennings). Excellent coverage guys and very deep in the secondary.

Quarterback is the gigantic question mark. Who knows what Stidham really is. But this is a roster I could be intrigued by for sure.
 

E5 Yaz

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If you go back to 2000 though, Troy Brown's targets / yards / catches all doubled, at the age of 29. So the focus on the slot was part of the offense from jump. And by the same token you can say "oh, they wouldn't have changed things for Garoppolo in 2016," they wouldn't have changed things for a neophyte Brady in 2001. This is a big part of the offense.

The other targets have generally fluctuated based on who was good. Brady had years where he threw to the TEs a ton and years where he threw to them not at all, years where he threw to the X a ton and years barely at all, etc.
So ... you're saying Brady was a system quarterback? :drums:
 

SMU_Sox

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I think for me the key is the guys that Brady didn’t like to work with (if we want to call it that) never really caught on anywhere else. I think he didn’t want to work with them because they Frankly sucked. Also, on his Howard Stern interview he gave us a little nugget that he and the coaching staff were on the same page with receivers (TEs, WRs, etc). I just don’t think the Pats offense is that hard to understand. Maybe for the slot guy it is but not for X receivers. It’s all about concepts and route conversions. If you run an 8 yard comeback vs a 7 yard comeback and the play calls for a 7 yarder that’s on the WR.
I’m not saying Brady did or didn’t do his most to help guys last year. Have no clue on that one. Just that historically guys who didn’t hack it here didn’t light up the league somewhere else.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think for me the key is the guys that Brady didn’t like to work with (if we want to call it that) never really caught on anywhere else. I think he didn’t want to work with them because they Frankly sucked. Also, on his Howard Stern interview he gave us a little nugget that he and the coaching staff were on the same page with receivers (TEs, WRs, etc). I just don’t think the Pats offense is that hard to understand. Maybe for the slot guy it is but not for X receivers. It’s all about concepts and route conversions. If you run an 8 yard comeback vs a 7 yard comeback and the play calls for a 7 yarder that’s on the WR.
I’m not saying Brady did or didn’t do his most to help guys last year. Have no clue on that one. Just that historically guys who didn’t hack it here didn’t light up the league somewhere else.
All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.
 

RedOctober3829

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All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.
Yes they will adjust and put in certain concepts that take advantage of Stidham's strengths but there will not be some kind of overhaul like some others think. The idea of some to trade Edelman just makes no sense to me. He is a good football player on an offense that doesn't have a whole lot of them.
 

SMU_Sox

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All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.
Yeah - this is interesting to me. How much is the offense going to change to emphasize what Stidham does best vs. Brady. I can't wait to see where they go with this. I think in year 2 given the investment they have made with RBs, OL, and recently TEs in the draft they plan on going more 12 or 21 with a lot of play-action. HT to @Super Nomario but this looks like they want to return to bully-ball against smaller quicker defenses. Exciting times though for sure and I would love to hear what others think they emphasize more or less with Stidham presumably at the helm (if that is what happens).

Quick edit they have done a lot of different things with Brady whether it be emphasizing the slot, tempo, 12, etc. A lot had to do with what personnel they had of course. Also - taking advantage of players the other clubs perhaps didn't value as much as them but I think those inefficiencies have largely ended.
 

Super Nomario

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All true ... but Brady was the constant. That doesn't exist anymore. It stands to reason that, even running the same offense, Stidham will have his own strengths and weaknesses ... and the game plan will adjust to capitalize/avoid those.
Stidham isn't the only variable here: there are the strengths and weaknesses of the receiving corps, too. Any effort to tailor the receiving corps to Stidham's game (to the extent that's even something we're going to notice) is a multi-year process. And you look at this offseason, they kept the WRs essentially the same (just Damiere Byrd in for Philip Dorsett).

I think the biggest difference we'll notice is more rollouts to take advantage of Stidham's mobility. I'm not sure that's going to manifest itself in a different distribution of targets, though.
 

lexrageorge

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Neither of those factors is relevant this coming year. McDaniels isn't going to force-fit Stidham into Brady's shoes. They'll see which pieces of the offense work best with him as QB and go from there. And we should be quick to dismiss he notion of QBs working better with some receivers than others. We've seen for 20 years that Brady had his pinkies and those he ignored. We don't know what sort of rapport he has with the current crop.

Of course they'll run plays to maximize the strengths of the personnel. But that doesn't mean that exact personnel that Brady utilized most frequently will be the same that will work with Stidham
This is the kind of logic that I think is overblown. Brady has thrown more to his good receivers than his bad receivers. I don't think it's about "binkies" or whatever. Julian Edelman is better at getting open than Matt LaCosse; of course he's getting the ball more. That's going to be true this year, too.
I don't recall any receivers that left New England after struggling and somehow gained a rapport with their new QB and earned a measure of success. In fact, most have either saw their production rapidly fall or fail completely (hello Ocho Cinco).

It's possible that Brady did not exploit some hidden talent in the new receivers last season, and that those receivers would have been more successful with a different QB throwing them the ball. But, if so, it would be the first time that's happened in Brady's career.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't recall any receivers that left New England after struggling and somehow gained a rapport with their new QB and earned a measure of success. In fact, most have either saw their production rapidly fall or fail completely (hello Ocho Cinco).

It's possible that Brady did not exploit some hidden talent in the new receivers last season, and that those receivers would have been more successful with a different QB throwing them the ball. But, if so, it would be the first time that's happened in Brady's career.
I think the whole "Brady only throws to guys he trusts" narrative is pretty overblown anyway. You look back and the only guys not getting targets are fringe roster guys or guys who are making a last ditch effort to hang on. You don't see a lot of guys at least the last 7 or so years who came here in their prime, or were top picks and didn't get targets

The only case I can see is maybe Hollister? He was here 2 years got almost no targets, went to SEA and had a much higher target share.
 

Super Nomario

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I think the whole "Brady only throws to guys he trusts" narrative is pretty overblown anyway. You look back and the only guys not getting targets are fringe roster guys or guys who are making a last ditch effort to hang on. You don't see a lot of guys at least the last 7 or so years who came here in their prime, or were top picks and didn't get targets

The only case I can see is maybe Hollister? He was here 2 years got almost no targets, went to SEA and had a much higher target share.
Hollister was actually pretty productive in NE when he was actually on the field, but between injuries and the depth chart, that was almost never. He played less than 100 offensive snaps in both his seasons with the Pats. He played 500 snaps last year.
 

Cellar-Door

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Hollister was actually pretty productive in NE when he was actually on the field, but between injuries and the depth chart, that was almost never. He played less than 100 offensive snaps in both his seasons with the Pats. He played 500 snaps last year.
It's hard to judge that though, he was active for 23 games and only saw limited snaps and 15 targets. The Brady confidence thing is partly by his own admission that if he doesn't trust a guy he tells the coaching staff not to play him. So it's tough to weigh whether Hollister played so little when healthy because he was down the depth chart due to others' performance, or due to Brady not trusting him.

Edit- generally I don't think there is that much evidence for the "Brady doesn't trust him" narrative overall, generally the most talented pass catchers played and got targets, the fringe guys and washed vets didn't. There is no real evidence that there were guys expected to be major contributors that Brady froze out.
 

Super Nomario

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It's hard to judge that though, he was active for 23 games and only saw limited snaps and 15 targets. The Brady confidence thing is partly by his own admission that if he doesn't trust a guy he tells the coaching staff not to play him. So it's tough to weigh whether Hollister played so little when healthy because he was down the depth chart due to others' performance, or due to Brady not trusting him.
15 of those games were as a rookie, in a season where Gronk was first-team All-Pro and they had just invested a fourth in Dwayne Allen. We can't know for sure, but this is entirely consistent with how the coaching staff deploys young players at other positions, too, when there are veterans ahead of them on the depth chart. Then in Y2, Hollister couldn't stay healthy.
 

E5 Yaz

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Stidham isn't the only variable here: there are the strengths and weaknesses of the receiving corps, too. Any effort to tailor the receiving corps to Stidham's game (to the extent that's even something we're going to notice) is a multi-year process. And you look at this offseason, they kept the WRs essentially the same (just Damiere Byrd in for Philip Dorsett).

I think the biggest difference we'll notice is more rollouts to take advantage of Stidham's mobility. I'm not sure that's going to manifest itself in a different distribution of targets, though.
I think we're basically in the same place. I might put more of an emphasis on the notion that ANY new quarterback is eventually going to have develop his own go-to plays and guys
 

Cellar-Door

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I think you're disagreeing with yourself here
Not really, I just think Brady is mostly full of shit.

I'm saying if we take it to be true that he freezes out pass catchers that he doesn't trust.... then Hollister is a possible example.
 

lexrageorge

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I think the whole "Brady only throws to guys he trusts" narrative is pretty overblown anyway. You look back and the only guys not getting targets are fringe roster guys or guys who are making a last ditch effort to hang on. You don't see a lot of guys at least the last 7 or so years who came here in their prime, or were top picks and didn't get targets

The only case I can see is maybe Hollister? He was here 2 years got almost no targets, went to SEA and had a much higher target share.
The narrative took root last season because there were a whole bunch of things that happened:

1.) Pats spent a first rounder on Harry and never connected with Brady after N'Keal returned from IR.

2.) Myers looked good in training camp catching passes from Stidham and showed some periodic flashes here and there.

3.) There was a well publicized rant on the sidelines by Brady after Dorsett badly missed on a hot route.

4.) Brady unwisely complained about the younger receivers in a radio interview.

I don't necessarily blame Brady for 1-3 above. Myers was a UDFA for a reason, and Harry's injury situation was a bit of a mystery. And Dorsett's production in general has been disappointing since he's been in NE. But Brady brought the narrative on himself with the radio interview, and then amplified it with his comments after leaving for Tampa. It would have been best to keep his mouth shut.
 
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Think Belichick and some of the young guys will actually appreciate a "flatter" team structure next year, by which I mean some of the hierarchy of having Brady--real or perceived--won't be there, which will shake up the dynamics for the less accomplished guys and might give them more space to develop. Brady was always a team player of course (and BB is famously at pains to treat all players the same), but he seemed to be getting a little saltier with his teammates and coaches in recent years. It also gets harder and harder to treat a living legend the same as a UDFA, especially as his skills slowly erode. The vets remaining are more of the "workers".
 

RetractableRoof

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-- snip --
What made Edelman and White so invaluable for Brady is that each knew where the other would be at all times, and where they would be if protection or scheme broke down. This year is uncharted territory; we don't know how they will work in tandem.
-- snip --
I think the interesting thing about this point is that I've typically expected the QB to figure out where he wants receivers in the exception case, or when an audible is forced due to defensive look, etc. and then there's a period of time to get the receivers on the QBs page. In this case, isn't there the possibility that the receivers (at least these two) will get to where Brady would have expected them out of habit and years of experience, and Stidham will end up looking for them there? In some sense the receivers are capable of all the reads and adjustments and they could all get on the same page as soon as Stidham is able to handle it? I'm not sure this thought is even logical for someone who actually KNOWS what he's talking about - but I'm curious about this evolution as well.

Said better, maybe Stidham will trail the receivers in picking up the chemistry/expectations, rather than receivers trailing the QB?
 

Zedia

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Just for fun....making a 53-man roster with the guys on the team right now (I'm counting the draftees and UDFA guys as being on the team right now)..

Offense (26)
QB - Stidham, Hoyer, Smith
RB - Michel, White, Harris, Taylor
FB - Vitale
WR - Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Lee, Meyers, Thomas, Slater
TE - Asiasi, Keefe, Izzo
T - Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste
G - Thuney, Mason, Onwenu
C - Andrews, Woodard

Defense (25)
Edge - Winovich, Uche, Simon
DL - Guy, Allen, Butler, Cowart, Coe
LB - Hightower, Bentley, Copeland, Calhoun, Jennings
CB - Gilmore, Jackson, JMcCourty, Bethel, Jones, Bryant, Williams
S - DMcCourty, Chung, Phillips, Dugger, Brooks/Gant

Specialists (2)
P - Bailey
K - Rohrwasser

Key special teamers include Vitale, Slater, Phillips, Brooks, Bethel, and Dugger.
Thanks, I like seeing other people’s 53. I don’t have any big arguments, although I don’t think they’ll keep 3 QBs or 3 TEs. But a few regulars/STers are missing - Bolden, Burkhead, Brandon King, Rivers, Wise. I guess cap hits would be negligible.
 

BaseballJones

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Thanks, I like seeing other people’s 53. I don’t have any big arguments, although I don’t think they’ll keep 3 QBs or 3 TEs. But a few regulars/STers are missing - Bolden, Burkhead, Brandon King, Rivers, Wise. I guess cap hits would be negligible.
Yes some current regular special teamers are missing, but they're being replaced by new guys. Can't keep everyone while adding a bunch of new guys. There's gonna be some turnover on the roster.
 

ramfan

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Just for fun....making a 53-man roster with the guys on the team right now (I'm counting the draftees and UDFA guys as being on the team right now)..

Offense (26)
QB - Stidham, Hoyer, Smith
RB - Michel, White, Harris, Taylor
FB - Vitale
WR - Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Lee, Meyers, Thomas, Slater
TE - Asiasi, Keefe, Izzo
T - Wynn, Cannon, Cajuste
G - Thuney, Mason, Onwenu
C - Andrews, Woodard

Defense (25)
Edge - Winovich, Uche, Simon
DL - Guy, Allen, Butler, Cowart, Coe
LB - Hightower, Bentley, Copeland, Calhoun, Jennings
CB - Gilmore, Jackson, JMcCourty, Bethel, Jones, Bryant, Williams
S - DMcCourty, Chung, Phillips, Dugger, Brooks/Gant

Specialists (2)
P - Bailey
K - Rohrwasser

Key special teamers include Vitale, Slater, Phillips, Brooks, Bethel, and Dugger.

Of course I know nothing about some of these players, and no idea if the character issues plaguing Thomas and even Coe are such that there's no way they'd make the team. But they are *talented* for sure. So just off the top of my head, I'd keep them on talent alone.

The offense I put together would have diversity at RB - traditional straight ahead runner in Michel, interesting potential in Harris, the skill of White, and Taylor can spell White or, in short bursts, Michel as a ballcarrier. They lack a hammer though. Vitale provides a versatile and athletic FB. At receiver, taking on Thomas gives them crazy speed and quickness that they otherwise have lacked. If he has his head on straight, that's a huge addition. Still, not an elite group by any means, but if healthy (big IF), they are decent enough. TE gets a huge boost from the two rookies, who I think are both better than anything they had in 2019. The OL if healthy should be very good. Depth is an issue. Just hoping that Woodard and Onwenu are better than the backups they had last year.

On D, this group is fast and versatile. Young too, with the additions of Uche, Coe, Jennings, Bryant, and Dugger. Other young guys include Winovich, Bentley, Cowart, Jones, and maybe Gant. They lack elite run-stuffers, but are quick to the ball, can get after the passer (Winovich, Simon, Uche, Butler, and Jennings). Excellent coverage guys and very deep in the secondary.

Quarterback is the gigantic question mark. Who knows what Stidham really is. But this is a roster I could be intrigued by for sure.
Wow, I believe that's 5 undrafted free agents making the team and as many as 15 players who've never played an NFL snap.
 

Soxy

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I guess that's one of the few downsides of being happy with the people in charge. If Caserio isn't going anywhere, where do you promote Ossenfort?
 

DJnVa

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Article on Stidham, includes this nugget


The piece contains quotes from scouts and agents who claim to be familiar with Bill Belichick’s thinking in a post-Tom Brady world, which could include a major spending spree as early as next offseason.
Said the one Patriots staffer who would return a text for this piece, “Go ahead and get excited about him.”
 

Captaincoop

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Belichick has had several chances now to hedge on his Stidham bet. He hasn't remotely hedged. He isn't likely to try and tank a year at his age. He believes in this kid.
 

Cellar-Door

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Belichick has had several chances now to hedge on his Stidham bet. He hasn't remotely hedged. He isn't likely to try and tank a year at his age. He believes in this kid.
I think it's a calculated hedge, that is... he believes in him, but also feels that if he's wrong he'd rather just let it ride and be bad for one year to help get the next long term QB. Probably the worst case scenario for him is Stidham being below average but not terrible. Average or better gives you a very good team, and a cheap QB to build around. Terrible means a non-playoff team that can draft (whether trading up or not) a potential franchise QB. Below average is a no-man's land, probably sneak into the playoffs, but also no confidence in the position going forward, and a pick low enough that a trade up becomes very expensive
 

Dick Pole Upside

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2003
4,403
39.932N, -85.848W
Also Jennings and Woodard...