2020 Pats: Cam Can't Cook

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
13,309
Cam having a good season in New England and then going to sign a huge contract with Washington to play with his old coach seems like a totally likely scenario.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
25,664
Hingham, MA
If they could find a middle ground at say 4 years and $100-$120M, I think the Pats would do that. I couldn't see them going to 4 years in the $140M range though.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
11,778
If they could find a middle ground at say 4 years and $100-$120M, I think the Pats would do that. I couldn't see them going to 4 years in the $140M range though.
It would take a lot of nerve for Newton to turn that down six months after getting zero offers at even veteran backup dollars. Now there might be some behind the scenes offer that emboldens him but otherwise I’d bet 4/100ish closes the deal.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
25,664
Hingham, MA
It would take a lot of nerve for Newton to turn that down six months after getting zero offers at even veteran backup dollars. Now there might be some behind the scenes offer that emboldens him but otherwise I’d bet 4/100ish closes the deal.
Yeah 4/$100 seems like a win-win, but who knows what he's looking for.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
10,354
Yeah 4/$100 seems like a win-win, but who knows what he's looking for.
He said (and take this with a giant grain of salt) a week or so ago that he wasn't interested in money, that he was here to win, and that was his goal. So maybe maybe maybe he's telling the truth and would be happy with a below-market contract that kept him as the QB of the NEP with a chance to win a SB each of the next four years. He seems to LOVE Belichick and this situation.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
25,664
Hingham, MA
He said (and take this with a giant grain of salt) a week or so ago that he wasn't interested in money, that he was here to win, and that was his goal. So maybe maybe maybe he's telling the truth and would be happy with a below-market contract that kept him as the QB of the NEP with a chance to win a SB each of the next four years. He seems to LOVE Belichick and this situation.
We'll find out in about 5 months. Words mean nothing. Money talks.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
12,294
New York City
I do honestly believe that being in New England (or in some other similar situation with a great coach and organization) for four years on a good but lowish contract is monetarily more than worth it over the long term compared to being better paid in a bad organization--the endorsements, the long term value of being a hall of famer (which I don't think he is unless he starts getting some more playoff wins), etc. are very different for the QB on one of the best teams in the league than they are for a QB on a crap team.
 

Silverdude2167

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 9, 2006
2,929
NYC
Cam having a good season in New England and then going to sign a huge contract with Washington to play with his old coach seems like a totally likely scenario.
Maybe he is just saying the right things and trying to just keep his head down and do well for one year.
But the things he is saying about the team/coaches and being put in the position to succeed and never having an OC like Josh etc. I think is a poor reflection on his old coach(s) and I think he sees that.
 

OurF'ingCity

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
4,942
New York City
Obviously there's a lot of season left to play, but if we assume Cam gives them roughly what he's given them the first three weeks, ~20-25m would seem reasonable for the Pats to offer him for 3-4 years given that they were willing to offer late-career Brady around that and Cam seems to bring just as much if not more to the Pats than older Brady did. If Cam can get more than that on the open market - and maybe he can, considering there are teams out there like Washington that have been dumb enough to give worse QBs like Alex Smith just as if not more money - then godspeed, wish him the best, and move on, whether that is to Stidham, a different draftee, or another stopgap measure like Cam is this year.
 

Reggie's Racquet

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2009
5,831
Texas/Montana
I am not sure Cam is the long term answer for this team...yet. Can't let his dynamic personality cloud your judgment. He did not play well at all yesterday. Missed lots of makeable throws. Is going to get Jules killed by forcing the ball to him.
 

OurF'ingCity

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
4,942
New York City
This would be very surprising. I’m guessing BB would want to see how durable he ends up being, plus how he plays in poor weather. There is absolutely no hurry.
And from Cam's perspective, he almost certainly wants to at least test the market next offseason to see if some team is going to offer him crazy money. So there's no hurry on either side.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,945
Mansfield MA
It would take a lot of nerve for Newton to turn that down six months after getting zero offers at even veteran backup dollars. Now there might be some behind the scenes offer that emboldens him but otherwise I’d bet 4/100ish closes the deal.
This seems low. Among the non-rookie-contract starters, only the old men (Brady, Brees, Rivers) are making $25 MM, and only Teddy Bridgewater ($21 MM), who has barely played in recent seasons, is making less. Ten QBs are making $30 MM+; that looks like going rate nowadays. Jacoby Brissett is making $28 MM this year.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
12,294
New York City
This seems low. Among the non-rookie-contract starters, only the old men (Brady, Brees, Rivers) are making $25 MM, and only Teddy Bridgewater ($21 MM), who has barely played in recent seasons, is making less. Ten QBs are making $30 MM+; that looks like going rate nowadays. Jacoby Brissett is making $28 MM this year.
Agreed, with the caveat that I have no idea what COVID does to the salary cap for the next couple years.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
34,085
Hartford, CT
Let him play it out and then go from there. The price you’d have to offer for him to forego the franchise tag or testing the FA waters is going to be considerable (25M plus AAV with effective multi year guarantees, conservatively), and why do that with a 7-8 game sample? It isn’t like you can’t make the same offer in February or March, after all.

I get theimpulse to lock in an ‘answer’ at the position for the next 3-4 years, but I think moving on an extension during the season would be rash.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,945
Mansfield MA
All indications I'm seeing is that it was $30M total over 2 years. $30M annually would be insane for him, especially because he's now the backup.
OK, I see what's going on here. He signed 2 years, $30 MM but he already had 1 year, $2 MM remaining on his rookie deal. So it's 1 year, $28 MM in "new money," which is what OvertheCap's numbers are reflecting. His cap figure last year was $8.5 MM ($2 MM existing salary plus half of a $11 MM bonus) and his cap hit this year is $21.3 MM. So it's not quite that bad ... but it's kinda that bad. I can't believe they are keeping him on the roster at that price. At any rate, I think it's still a data point strongly indicating "Cam's gonna cost more than $25 MM a year."
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
66,417
Oregon
Let him play it out and then go from there. The price you’d have to offer for him to forego the franchise tag or testing the FA waters is going to be considerable (25M plus AAV with effective multi year guarantees, conservatively), and why do that with a 7-8 game sample? It isn’t like you can’t make the same offer in February or March, after all.

I get theimpulse to lock in an ‘answer’ at the position for the next 3-4 years, but I think moving on an extension during the season would be rash.
This is where I'm at. This was an organization that allowed TFB to leave. They're not going to do a quickie-deal with Cam based on three decent games and a fun, professional attitude
 

NortheasternPJ

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 16, 2004
15,006
All indications I'm seeing is that it was $30M total over 2 years. $30M annually would be insane for him, especially because he's now the backup.
You are correct. I misremembered it. I was floored when it happened and mixed up the details.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
24,398
This seems low. Among the non-rookie-contract starters, only the old men (Brady, Brees, Rivers) are making $25 MM, and only Teddy Bridgewater ($21 MM), who has barely played in recent seasons, is making less. Ten QBs are making $30 MM+; that looks like going rate nowadays. Jacoby Brissett is making $28 MM this year.
But, many of those deals (including Bridgewater's) were offered by teams instead of offering Newton money. So, you can't just assume after three games he's back up to average, the most relevant recent data says he is not. I agree if he has a strong season that might change things, but good advice to him now would pretty heavily weight that he had bascially nothing on the table just a couple months ago. You cannot dismiss that.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
42,400
What I am looking forward to is 16 games worth of the following:

--When Cam has a great game: "That was awesome, but that's not who he is, let's not get carried away."
--When Cam has a bad game: "Yeah, that wasn't good at all. Remember, he's been injured a lot and isn't an accurate QB."
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,945
Mansfield MA
But, many of those deals (including Bridgewater's) were offered by teams instead of offering Newton money. So, you can't just assume after three games he's back up to average, the most relevant recent data says he is not. I agree if he has a strong season that might change things, but good advice to him now would pretty heavily weight that he had bascially nothing on the table just a couple months ago. You cannot dismiss that.
Maybe not after three games, but Cam's biggest question mark was health and he's looking healthy and showing no physical dropoff. And recent history is littered with QBs signing franchise-type deals after limited samples of franchise-type play (and I'm being charitable in some of these cases): Bridgewater and Tannehill this most recent offseason; Osweiler, Foles, Jimmy G, etc. before that.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
24,398
Agreed, though I think the question was about a deal right now----and so I think both sides bake in risk because he's only been healthy for three games. Thus, the baseline is lower than the free agent one, because the guys you listed were all healthy when signed (whatever their histories, which I agree are mixed). That was the point I was making.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
66,417
Oregon
He and his father have also said multiple times that this year in New England is a "business trip."
Mike Reiss with the Cam quote:

"This whole decision is a business trip for me. The fact I don't have none of my children here in Boston with me, and the fact I haven't been able to see them [with] regularity, that's angry in itself for me. I wake up every morning missing the hell out of my children and knowing that if I don't do what I'm supposed to do, this could be ‘good riddance' for me. That's as serious as I'm making it, and that's as serious as it is.” Cam Newton, on sports radio WEEI.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
25,664
Hingham, MA
Mike Reiss with the Cam quote:

"This whole decision is a business trip for me. The fact I don't have none of my children here in Boston with me, and the fact I haven't been able to see them [with] regularity, that's angry in itself for me. I wake up every morning missing the hell out of my children and knowing that if I don't do what I'm supposed to do, this could be ‘good riddance' for me. That's as serious as I'm making it, and that's as serious as it is.” Cam Newton, on sports radio WEEI.
I don't take this to mean that he is 100% one and done though. If the Pats are willing to commit, then he'll move his family IMO. I think he means more that THIS SEASON is an extended business trip.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
42,400
Mike Reiss with the Cam quote:

"This whole decision is a business trip for me. The fact I don't have none of my children here in Boston with me, and the fact I haven't been able to see them [with] regularity, that's angry in itself for me. I wake up every morning missing the hell out of my children and knowing that if I don't do what I'm supposed to do, this could be ‘good riddance' for me. That's as serious as I'm making it, and that's as serious as it is.” Cam Newton, on sports radio WEEI.
And of course, that quote doesn't say he won't be back here next year (not saying you said it was). It being a "business trip" only means nothing was promised beyond this year. I don't think it will happen but if Pats offer something and he signs it in a month, that doesn't give lie to anything he said.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
18,093
Mike Reiss with the Cam quote:

"This whole decision is a business trip for me. The fact I don't have none of my children here in Boston with me, and the fact I haven't been able to see them [with] regularity, that's angry in itself for me. I wake up every morning missing the hell out of my children and knowing that if I don't do what I'm supposed to do, this could be ‘good riddance' for me. That's as serious as I'm making it, and that's as serious as it is.” Cam Newton, on sports radio WEEI.
I took that as "This is my shot to save my career," rather than "I'm definitely playing the FA market next year."
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
9,533
At this rate, I expect the Pats to play the Titans in the AFC Championship with the loser playing the winner in the Super Bowl.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
10,354
No idea what Cam's long-term future is, but it's being reported that Washington will trade Haskins.


No idea what Haskins would fetch, but he was a first-round pick so there must be something there that someone likes. Might the Pats - or people here - have any interest in looking at trading for him?
 

jsinger121

@jsinger121
SoSH Member
No idea what Cam's long-term future is, but it's being reported that Washington will trade Haskins.


No idea what Haskins would fetch, but he was a first-round pick so there must be something there that someone likes. Might the Pats - or people here - have any interest in looking at trading for him?
Haskins is a stiff. I wouldn't trade anything for him.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
42,400
Yahoo Sports today lists the Pats as #2 team as to where Haskins could land.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
10,354
Yahoo Sports today lists the Pats as #2 team as to where Haskins could land.
cbssports.com has the Pats as #1.


1. New England Patriots
Cam Newton has been about as good as advertised, if not better while helping New England remain competitive. But he's a 31-year-old on a one-year deal, remember, and he's now guaranteed, for the fourth time in five years, not to complete a full season. Even if Newton comes back strong after the Patriots' unexpected bye, two more starts aren't going to lock him in as the team's QB of the future. It's not like Jarrett Stidham is a former first-rounder, either, demanding serious commitment. New England remade its offense for Cam, so it's easy to imagine them embracing a chance to mold Haskins' big arm as a more long-term Tom Brady succession plan.
 

Euclis20

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
3,623
Imaginationland
cbssports.com has the Pats as #1.


1. New England Patriots
Cam Newton has been about as good as advertised, if not better while helping New England remain competitive. But he's a 31-year-old on a one-year deal, remember, and he's now guaranteed, for the fourth time in five years, not to complete a full season. Even if Newton comes back strong after the Patriots' unexpected bye, two more starts aren't going to lock him in as the team's QB of the future. It's not like Jarrett Stidham is a former first-rounder, either, demanding serious commitment. New England remade its offense for Cam, so it's easy to imagine them embracing a chance to mold Haskins' big arm as a more long-term Tom Brady succession plan.
True or not, that's kind of harsh (unless him being positive for Covid impacts his future health, so who knows).
 

Silverdude2167

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 9, 2006
2,929
NYC
cbssports.com has the Pats as #1.


Cam Newton has been about as good as advertised, if not better while helping New England remain competitive. But he's a 31-year-old on a one-year deal, remember, and he's now guaranteed, for the fourth time in five years, not to complete a full season.
This is the stupidest take. I would not be surprised if Cam does not return, but grouping COVID in with his past injuries is such lazy terrible writing...
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
66,417
Oregon
This is the stupidest take. I would not be surprised if Cam does not return, but grouping COVID in with his past injuries is such lazy terrible writing...
I think the worst part of the take is saying that Haskins having a strong arm makes it easy to see the Patriots taking him on as the heir to Brady.

As though having a strong arm is the only thing that matters the it comes to being a QB in McDaniels' system
 

SMU_Sox

loves his fluffykins
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,696
Dallas
No idea what Cam's long-term future is, but it's being reported that Washington will trade Haskins.


No idea what Haskins would fetch, but he was a first-round pick so there must be something there that someone likes. Might the Pats - or people here - have any interest in looking at trading for him?
Haskins to the Pats? Yuck. Guy is reportedly a locker-room cancer, doesn't put in the work, has an attitude, and is a complete disaster with timing and anticipation throws. Mainstream media is about as accurate as predicting Patriots moves as my dog is. Makes no sense other than they might need a QB of the future.