2020 Pats: General/Non-QB Off-Season Discussion
- Thread starter Devizier
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That's a perfect hit rate. With that in mind, I wonder if there's been a shift downward in the draft value of DL due, presumably, to the continued evolution of the passing game. Edge rusher seems to have retained that worth, but that's a long interval between 1st round picks for DL's. It may be that it's simply easier to find an above average DL in FA, so use that pick elsewhere. Or it's just coincidence/need.
FWIW, no one invests less in edge rushers than Belichick. The only top 50 pick he's used is Chandler Jones, and he dealt him as soon as he got expensive.
Eh...you win some, you lose some. Brown was adequate. He started all four years and accumulated 30 AV (7.5 per season) over those four years. Legit NFL starter...he did start 16 games for a good Saints team this past year.
Easley had all the talent in the world but those injuries....
Makes me question the AV metric. Brown was a mediocre player. Maybe my memory isn't being fair and also overrating Warren but it felt like Warren was a better player.
I remember that earlier into THE ERA Belichick was cited as seeing the third round as the place where you take chances on players who, if not for some mitigating circumstance like injury or disciplinary issues, would have gone in the first or high second rounds. I believe I read something like this in relation to the drafting of players, like Brandon Tate, who came with injury concerns. In the years that followed, we saw more and more risky guys like that get picked by BB in the first and second rounds. GRONK and VOLMER worked out crazy well, but selections like Easley and Dowling and others have been really disappointing, and felt like unnecessary reaches.
I think at this point it would be best for the team to be more conservative with their picks when it comes to serious injury history. I suspect they will for the next two years as they rebuild the roster.
Per Curran not a chance in hell JE11 is traded
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1245775114089742337
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/1245775114089742337
I agree in principle, I think the reason they went for guys like Easley was that when you are always picking at the bottom of the first round, it's hard to find that truly elite talent.
Belichick talked about this in one of the Holley books. He actually cited the second round as the round where you have guys with the top-tier physical traits who did not have the kind of production of first-rounders. He specifically cited Ben Watson (who was pick 32 in the first round).
Well, Brown was starting-caliber for both the Patriots and the 13-3 Saints. Both Bill Belichick and Sean Payton thought enough of him to start him, week-in and week-out (with occasional exceptions in NE). I don't know how you're "mediocre" and get that kind of playing time for those two franchises.
There's still gas left in the tank, but he turns 34 next month, so there's not much. I find it hard to believe they wouldn't trade him to TB for the right return. You know Brady wants him there. Pats could just be trying to drive the price up on Tampa.
The hit rate league wide on 2nd rounders is lower than what one would expect. Even low first rounders are a gamble; Brown and Easley aren't exactly outliers in that part of the draft, even if you do hope for better.
The Pats didn't pick up his 5th year option. If he was any better than mediocre wouldn't that have been a no brainer?
I can't tell you why they didn't pick it up. But he started for them that year and promptly went on to start 16 games for the Saints in 2019. I just don't know how you can be "mediocre" when you're a starter for five straight seasons for Belichick and Payton. Maybe there were personal reasons (related not so much to his on-field productivity) why BB let him go. No idea.
The Pats only got a 6th round comp pick for Brown, so I doubt that was the reason. They basically got nothing for letting him go. I'm not going to try to read the mind of BB either but isn't Occam's Razor that BB just didn't think he was very good?
Wasn’t Easley only available to us because of his injury risk? Seems like what you’d more or less expect from someone with top 10 talent but red flag medicals. Not everyone is Willis McGahee.
Thanks for the Borges quotes. I forgot about him. It would be fun to sift through Globe archives and find all the stuff like that. It really is amazing just how spectacularly much of what he wrote blew up in his face. Like, surprised he has any face left.
He had his worst year in 2018 and the 5th year option was too expensive. He was a fine player during his 4 years but nothing special.
Edit: 5th year option would have been around $7M and he signed for 3//$15M. He wasn't worth it.
Edit: 5th year option would have been around $7M and he signed for 3//$15M. He wasn't worth it.
I think he was more of a character miss than the injuries too. He was the total opposite of a team fit. Injuries + character red flags = total bust. I can see taking a chance on the injuries but not if he is not coachable and/or fits in the locker-room.
But doesn't the 5th year option have to be exercised after the 3rd year (so for him, 2017)? So they decided after 3 years he wouldn't be worth the $7M or so price tag in 2019.
They were right too - he signed for 3//$15 in the open market so that was his very likely his best offer. He never amounted to be much of a pass rusher and that's who makes the big bucks.
Well, here's the data in front of us:
1. He was a first-round draft pick of BB, who has a good track record at identifying first-round talent.
2. He was a four-year starter for the Patriots.
3. Over those four years, he averaged more AV than Ty Warren (7.5 vs. 6.3), who we all thought was pretty damned good.
4. He was not renewed for a fifth season under his rookie contract, and became a free agent.
5. Sean Payton picked him up and the Saints went 13-3. Brown started all 16 games for the Saints.
So what's more likely: that Brown was "mediocre" but BB kept starting him for four years, that the AV number is off for some reason, and that Payton was also fooled into starting him for 16 out of 16 games for a 13-3 team? Or that Brown was actually pretty good but that BB had his own reasons for letting him go?
Here's a little blurb about teams letting talented players go instead of picking up their fifth year option:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2834553-declined-5th-year-options-could-leave-host-of-former-top-nfl-talents-available
Money seems to be the deciding factor in many/most cases. This article was from 2016...
"A glut of once-highly regarded talent could be on the move after multiple teams turned down fifth-year options on rookie contracts from the 2016 NFL draft.
NFL organizations like control, and first-round assets are significant investments that franchises don't take lightly. The ability to keep young players on the roster at a discount price during their prime years is crucial to long-term team building.
The league's current contract structure favors the organizations, especially early in a player's career, but circumstances don't always align. While a trigger is included in every first-round rookie contract, an individual's lack of development makes teams question the correct path.
Sometimes a team wants to retain its player, but the front office can't rationalize the projected salary based on performance. The Oakland Raiders found themselves in this situation with safety Karl Joseph.
"That's a big story for some people," head coach Jon Gruden said of the decision not to pick up Joseph's fifth-year option, per the San Francisco Chronicle's Matt Kawahara. "But that does not mean that we don't want Karl with us this year and in the future."
Based on the current collective bargaining agreement, each first-round rookie deal includes a fifth-year team option. How much the option costs differs.
For top-10 picks, the fifth-year option is equal to the salary of the league's transition tender during the player's fourth season. The number is based on the 10 highest salaries at the player's respective position during the previous season. Beyond the initial 10 selections, the fifth-year option is the average of the third- to 25th-highest-paid players at the same position."
So I am assuming that BB thought he was good enough to start but he didn't want to pay him that much money.
From: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2766289-patriots-news-malcom-brown-contract-option-reportedly-declined
"Despite his success, the Patriots haven't been afraid to let go of key defensive players, including Malcolm Butler, Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones, in recent years. Brown appears to be the next in a line of regulars to leave before getting a raise."
This article gives some more insight... https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/2/16/18227280/new-england-patriots-2019-nfl-free-agency-profile-defense-malcom-brown-lawrence-guy-draft
So BB decided he wasn't interested in keeping Brown at the price tag required to keep him...but then proceeded to start Brown anyway in his last year. Clearly BB thought he was better than "mediocre"...just not worth the price of keeping him for that fifth year salary.
BB definitely found better value elsewhere (e.g., Danny Shelton).
The one piece of evidence that you excluded was that the Pats signed Ty Warren to a second contract. Details here:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2978273
So at a time when the salary cap was much lower, the Pats gave Warren a 5 year / up to $35M deal ($7M per year), yet declined the option to pay Brown $7M for a 5th year.
This to me shows that BB thought much higher of Warren than Brown. Which was really my point - that I was surprised Brown earned more AV/year than Warren did because I thought Warren was a much better player. And it feels like BB thought so too.
I get that Brady likes Edelman, but the Bucs trading anything of value to use a good chunk of their remaining cap space on 1 year of a WR who would be a distant 3rd on their depth chart would be crazy.
I don't think it is clear at all that BB thought he was better than mediocre. His starts and snaps stats reflect that BB thought he was the best man for the job. But that doesn't necessarily mean BB thought he was a good player.
Doubt we'll come to an agreement on this. My main point was that by eye test I thought Warren was better than Brown, and I think BB would agree with that based on how they handled their contract situations. It's fine if you disagree. I thought Brown was a disappointment. I think whenever you don't bring back a first round pick for a second contract it is a disappointment (unless like Chandler Jones you make a trade to get value back).
@BaseballJones I think I realized one issue here - your math was wrong. 2003-2009 is only 7 years. 50/7 = 7.1 AV/year.
Also Warren didn't play much his rookie year - Ted Washington did. From 2004-2009 Warren had 47 AV for 7.8 AV/year, including a peak of 11 in 2006 (vs. Brown's peak of 8).
So at his peak Warren was a better player by AV, and when you adjust for playing time on average he was better by AV.
Anyway.
Edit: maybe I just don't understand AV either. Or maybe this proves that there is good reason to not use AV as a trusted stat.
Warren from 2004-2008:
40 AV
200 solo tackles
95 assists
33 tackles for loss
18.5 sacks
36 QB hits
Brown from 2015-2019:
37 AV
121 solo tackles
99 assists
20 tackles for loss
10.5 sacks
21 QB hits
That is a crapton more production from Warren than Brown, yet only 3 more total AV over 5 years. I can't find Warren's snap counts but I thought AV was a "counting" stat anyway so something seems off here
Also Warren didn't play much his rookie year - Ted Washington did. From 2004-2009 Warren had 47 AV for 7.8 AV/year, including a peak of 11 in 2006 (vs. Brown's peak of 8).
So at his peak Warren was a better player by AV, and when you adjust for playing time on average he was better by AV.
Anyway.
Edit: maybe I just don't understand AV either. Or maybe this proves that there is good reason to not use AV as a trusted stat.
Warren from 2004-2008:
40 AV
200 solo tackles
95 assists
33 tackles for loss
18.5 sacks
36 QB hits
Brown from 2015-2019:
37 AV
121 solo tackles
99 assists
20 tackles for loss
10.5 sacks
21 QB hits
That is a crapton more production from Warren than Brown, yet only 3 more total AV over 5 years. I can't find Warren's snap counts but I thought AV was a "counting" stat anyway so something seems off here
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Agreed, but I think a trade to TB is going to happen (assuming teams get comfort around the idea that the 2020-21 season will be played). It's just a matter at what price for TB.
Yeah, I think Warren was better than Brown too. No argument from me there. But it makes no sense for BB to keep starting Brown if he thought he was "mediocre". Mediocre players don't start year after year for SB caliber teams. They may for one year but eventually they're going to get replaced. Brown started for four years, including his lame-duck year.
I'm sure BB hoped that Brown would be better than he turned out to be. If he was, he'd have likely been worth the fifth year option cost. So from that standpoint yeah, he probably was a disappointment. But even at that, he has been a solid NFL defensive lineman, again, starting all five of his NFL seasons, for two outstanding coaches and franchises. I just don't see how a player can be labeled "mediocre" and continue to start like that on really good teams for really good coaches.
Not gonna reply to your other post correcting my math (no need for a separate post to do that); will just say thank you for picking up on that and showing me my mistake.
EDIT: I see what I did. Warren played 8 years for the Pats. Looks like his last year he got hurt. So I said he started 7 years for the Pats, but when I did the math, I calculated his average AV by taking his total AV with the Pats (which included his last year when he played in only one game) and dividing it by 8 - the number of total years he played. But we can discount that last year, and then yes, your math is right if we do that.
AV must give a bonus to DT vs DE ... though of course Warren as a 3-4 DE might have been a DT on other teams.
AV also starts with a defense's points allowed per drive ... so Brown is benefitting a lot from the offense not turning the ball over and putting them in excellent position (2017 being a dramatic example).
Finally, AV predates snap counts, so while it sees that Brown started every week, it is not cognizant that he was a rotational DT who only plays about half the snaps.
FWIW the overarching discussion is about whether Brown is "adequate" or "mediocre" ... this is purely semantic. I don't view "mediocre" as a devastating criticism. MW has synonyms as "common, fair, indifferent, medium, middling, ordinary, passable, run-of-the-mill, run-of-the-mine (or run-of-mine), second-class, second-rate, so-so" - these all apply. Except "run-of-the-mine," who the hell says that.
I completely agree with all this. I would bet that Warren played more like 60-70% of snaps back in the day, but unfortunately there is no data.
Also agree that mediocre is not some devastating criticism. We took it to PM, but I said similar - he is a fine player. Decent. Whatever. But the fact that Warren had a lot more production, and the fact that BB signed Warren to a lucrative second contract, tells me all I need to know.
So now Belichick has hitched his future to Tom Brady. The remaining games are his to win or lose, barring injury or waffling from the coach. How those games go, and where Drew Bledsoe goes, will decide a lot of things for the New England Patriots.
They'll also decide one thing for Bill Belichick. Whether the future is now or nonexistent for him, because there's no turning back. Some people learn from their mistakes. Others are doomed to repeat them.
If you wonder which is Bill Belichick, go ask people in Cleveland if they've ever heard the story of the guy who benched Bernie Kosar for Todd Philcox?
Borges, November 22, 2001
I've always thought of AV as directional. You don't quote it like gospel and use it to say with any gravity that player X was better than player Y because he has 11 AV this year and player Y only had 10. I use it as a good proxy for value when looking at tens of hundreds of results and needing a one size fits all metric convenient for regressions or whatever type of analysis I am doing.
I can see this being a compelling case, and I’m sure there’s some truth in there. Just want to say that the favorable comparison to Ty Warren suggests to me a pretty major flaw in that particular stat.
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I don't believe Malcom Brown was a bad or even mediocre player. He was never a difference maker, but I do believe he was capable given his role. AV is a very rough and imperfect metric for football players; the error bars are probably enormous.
If you look at the players drafted around him, he seems to be what you can reasonably expect for someone drafted with the 32nd pick. None of the interior DL drafted after him have been much better. There may be some defensive ends that were taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (Frank Clark, Danielle Hunter) that may have been better picks, but there were also some that haven't amounted to much either. And the Pats drafted Trey Flowers, and he turned out OK for them.
If you look at the players drafted around him, he seems to be what you can reasonably expect for someone drafted with the 32nd pick. None of the interior DL drafted after him have been much better. There may be some defensive ends that were taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (Frank Clark, Danielle Hunter) that may have been better picks, but there were also some that haven't amounted to much either. And the Pats drafted Trey Flowers, and he turned out OK for them.
Let's not forget that in the midst of the Warren-Brown discussion, we can all agree that....
Borges sucks.
Borges sucks.
Well, I just found that watching Edelman's Planet Fitness workout video worked best on double speed, while sitting on the couch eating a doughnut.
I don't understand the point he was trying to make by bringing the Bernie Kosar benching up that way in 2001, 8 years after the fact. Bernie Kosar did nothing after Belichick cut him loose.
I don't remember that column at the time, but wow does that reek of an agenda.
He didn't even do much before it. He'd had a couple of decent years in Cleveland, but he wasn't the guy people were expecting coming out of Miami.
On AV:
The 2005 Pats defense was trash, and that was like 1/3 of his playing time over the first four.
He wasn't a starter year one, Brown was.
At least my memory is that Warren despite not missing games, played less in games than Brown did. On a per snap basis I doubt many would argue in favor of Brown, but Warren shared a line with Seymour Wilfork Green and various others.
In any event, the numbers are more or less equal, which makes sense -- neither player was a probowl player, both were a bit better than average.
The 2005 Pats defense was trash, and that was like 1/3 of his playing time over the first four.
He wasn't a starter year one, Brown was.
At least my memory is that Warren despite not missing games, played less in games than Brown did. On a per snap basis I doubt many would argue in favor of Brown, but Warren shared a line with Seymour Wilfork Green and various others.
In any event, the numbers are more or less equal, which makes sense -- neither player was a probowl player, both were a bit better than average.
Drew Carey used to do a bit in his stand up where he’d say “here’s my impression of Bernie Kosar scrambling” and then he’d smack the microphone stand so it wobbled back and forth for a few seconds. And that’s from a Cleveland fan.
Wouldn’t there be a significant dead cap hit if he were traded? Never say never and all that but a trade would surprise me here unless he starts demanding a restructure. Doesn’t look to me that the Pats even need to create much more cap space this year since the expensive QB option doesn’t seem to be happening.
I don't want them to deal Gilmore. But let's say they do. What's the reigning DPOY in his prime with two years left on a very reasonable deal worth to a contending team? They have JMac, Jackson, Jones, and Williams to play corner, which is still a good group and other than JMac, very young.
Could they get a 2020 first and a 2021 first? Lots of teams could use a guy like Gilmore. Minnesota would make a ton of sense. #22 pick plus a 2021 first rounder. The Pats could do a lot of good things with that.
Could they get a 2020 first and a 2021 first? Lots of teams could use a guy like Gilmore. Minnesota would make a ton of sense. #22 pick plus a 2021 first rounder. The Pats could do a lot of good things with that.
That’s the type of deal that would get me to consider it. I doubt anyone is giving 2 #1’s for a guy who will be 30 in September but if someone were to offer a 1 and 3 or something, that may be tough to say no given where this team currently sits.
One way to frame it is to say that they're trading "for a guy who will be 30 in September". Another way to frame it is to say they're trading for the best defensive player in football, in his absolute prime, with 2 years left on a good contract.
Both are true, of course.
The only way I’d do it is if the Giants or Lions get stupid and offer their first round pick for Gilmore. Then you’d be in prime position to draft a real difference maker at a number of positions but mainly one of the top QBs.