2020 Pats: Is Cam Destined to Fail?

YTF

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I don't think Cam Newton is destined to fail, no. Anyone replacing Brady was/is going to be held to an impossible standard. Stidham had the gift of low expectations while Cam Newton is/was a franchise QB in his own right and fans will expect results. If Newton fails, I imagine he'd take more heat than Stidham would, but again - I think that's much more based on expectations than racial animosity. While it is naive to think race wouldn't play some factor into it for a segment of the fanbase, my sense is that the vast majority of the fans are genuinely excited about the move.
Not singling you out specifically, but quoting you because this is a widely believed sentiment and while I understand where it comes from, I don't agree. That impossible standard left New England a few seasons ago. Tom Brady of the past couple of seasons couldn't live up to that standard. Don't get me wrong he was better than most quarterbacks, but he no longer was THAT guy. Prime Brady, yes that guy is going to be damn near impossible to replace. And while Tom still has some gas in the tank it was clearly time to go IMO. The guy has the heart of a lion and hasn't lost a bit of intensity, but he has lost a couple of steps and he didn't have the supporting cast that he once had. Tom may play out of his mind in Tampa given the players he's surrounded with and the motivation of trying to prove himself without Bill will surely up the intensity level, but neither of those elements exists if he's still in New England. It's foolish to compare Stidham or anyone else to Brady in his prime.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Not singling you out specifically, but quoting you because this is a widely believed sentiment and while I understand where it comes from, I don't agree. That impossible standard left New England a few seasons ago. Tom Brady of the past couple of seasons couldn't live up to that standard. Don't get me wrong he was better than most quarterbacks, but he no longer was THAT guy. Prime Brady, yes that guy is going to be damn near impossible to replace. And while Tom still has some gas in the tank it was clearly time to go IMO. The guy has the heart of a lion and hasn't lost a bit of intensity, but he has lost a couple of steps and he didn't have the supporting cast that he once had. Tom may play out of his mind in Tampa given the players he's surrounded with and the motivation of trying to prove himself without Bill will surely up the intensity level, but neither of those elements exists if he's still in New England. It's foolish to compare Stidham or anyone else to Brady in his prime.
I pretty strongly disagree with this. First, he's only a year removed from winning a Super Bowl, granted that was not a vintage Brady season but he still got it done in the playoffs.

Second, if Newton has the kind of season he had for the Panthers in their Super Bowl year, wins the MVP, they go 15-1 and he gets them to the Super Bowl where he promptly melts down in spectacular fashion, you bet your ass there are going to be hot takes flying in from everywhere about him not being able to deliver the goods like Brady. It's stupid and unfair but it will happen. Now imagine Newton is above average, they go 10-6 and lose in the divisional round. It may not be his fault but there will be the inevitable comparisons, particularly if Brady is playing well in Tampa.

Your post is totally logical and in a fair world that's the way fans should look at it, and some will have that kind of perspective. But many will not.
 

Kliq

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Also most Patriot fans understand that whoever the replacement for Brady was going to be probably wasn't going to be as successful as Brady. Is the expectation for overall team success greater because of Brady? Sure, but that also has to do with the belief that the defense is pretty good, and BB is still the coach.

We need to differentiate between things most fans believe, and things a small group of really stupid fans believe.
 

bankshot1

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Brady slipped last year, and for the last couple of years, but last year's disappointing offensive performance had more to do with, O-line injuries, no Gronk, no Devlin, no running game, a hurt Jules, a hurt Sanu, no AB or Gordon, a hurt #1 draft pick and really no offensive weapons to work with. At times his best option was dumping the ball rather than take the sack.

IMO Newton or any QB following the GOAT, even if he's a grey-bearded GOAT, will be a tough act to follow,
 

BaseballJones

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Tom Brady's 2018 season was almost exactly on his career averages.

Career season avg*: 63.8%, 4,142 yds, 7.5 y/a, 30 td, 10 int, 97.0 rating
Brady in 2018: 65.8%, 4,355 yds, 7.6 y/a, 29 td, 11 int, 97.7 rating

*Not counting 2000 (where he played a few snaps) or 2008 (when he got hurt in the first quarter of the first game).

He was perfectly fine in 2018. Not PEAK Brady, but he was certainly "normal" Tom Brady.

2019 is another story, however.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Tom Brady's 2018 season was almost exactly on his career averages.
I love Tom as much as the next guy, but this is deceiving. The problem is that upper-echelon QB play has gotten better, on average, and Brady's peak is behind him. That's totally fine, because he's Tom Fucking Brady, but maintaining his career averages in the face of league-wide improvement isn't as much of a compliment without additional context.

Statistical ranks in 2018.

65.8% - 18th
4,355 - 7th
7.6 y/a - t13th
29 TD - 10th
11 INT - 16th
97.7 - 12th
 

HurstSoGood

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I really wish they just signed Johnny Manziel or that redhead from the Bengals. Then we could avoid all this dancing around "those people" who are more flamboyant and individualistic and more likely to make waves and be less patriotic or less likely to conform. You know, "me first." I mean, do we really want someone who is not going to show patience and let plays develop without prematurely scrambling from the pocket? Do you want someone who is less likely to make the correct read? He's probably a prima donna anyways. There may be an exception or two to the rule, but those people really shouldn't be trusted to play quarterback, let alone be leaders of men. I mean, seriously, they are hard enough to root for as Wide Receivers.

Cam is destined to fail as long as we need to have threads like this.
 

BaseballJones

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I love Tom as much as the next guy, but this is deceiving. The problem is that upper-echelon QB play has gotten better, on average, and Brady's peak is behind him. That's totally fine, because he's Tom Fucking Brady, but maintaining his career averages in the face of league-wide improvement isn't as much of a compliment without additional context.

Statistical ranks in 2018.

65.8% - 18th
4,355 - 7th
7.6 y/a - t13th
29 TD - 10th
11 INT - 16th
97.7 - 12th
Fair enough. So let's just go with Brady's stats from 2007-2019...

Brady 2007-19: 64.7%, 4,417 yds, 7.7 y/a, 33 td, 8 int, 100.8 rating
Brady in 2018: 65.8%, 4,355 yds, 7.6 y/a, 29 td, 11 int, 97.7 rating

So definitely a step down, but not too far off. But yes, the rest of the league improved. But the rest of the league improving isn't necessarily a reflection on Brady. Maybe it just means that college football systems have improved and more and better QBs have come out of college, and teams have really learned how to throw the football more effectively. This isn't quite the same as seeing a change following the no-hands rule for DBs that came about, what, in like 2004 or 2005?
 

Captaincoop

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That's interesting. I havent talked about the cam trade with a ton of people, but on the two text chains I've discussed it, only me and one other person are happy about the trade. The other eight people are extremely unhappy.
Wow. I don't have one friend who has expressed unhappiness about this move. And my Pats fan friends are mostly 40-something white guys. The reaction has been almost exclusively "Belichick has done it again".
 

bankshot1

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There's pretty much a linear decline in most of Brady's passing stats from 2016-2019. Yards, TDs, comp %, rating. Y/G, Y/A, Y/C. Interceptions were flattish as noted above he threw the ball away a lot last year, rather than force a pass that wasn't there or take a sack. Its a consistent decline across the board. Nothing earth shattering but the eyes didn't lie.

 

BaseballJones

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There's pretty much a linear decline in most of Brady's passing stats from 2016-2019. Yards, TDs, comp %, rating. Y/G, Y/A, Y/C. Interceptions were flattish as noted above he threw the ball away a lot last year, rather than force a pass that wasn't there or take a sack. Its a consistent decline across the board. Nothing earth shattering but the eyes didn't lie.

I agree. He's not the same QB he was at his peak, that's for sure.
 

Super Nomario

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There's pretty much a linear decline in most of Brady's passing stats from 2016-2019. Yards, TDs, comp %, rating. Y/G, Y/A, Y/C. Interceptions were flattish as noted above he threw the ball away a lot last year, rather than force a pass that wasn't there or take a sack. Its a consistent decline across the board. Nothing earth shattering but the eyes didn't lie.

We'll see more this year (assuming there's a season), when Brady has talent around him again. The offensive supporting cast has degraded every year during that span.
 

bankshot1

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We'll see more this year (assuming there's a season), when Brady has talent around him again. The offensive supporting cast has degraded every year during that span.
Yup-I wouldn't be surprised to see a motivated chip on his shoulder something to prove TB12 with a half-decent supporting cast have a pretty decent year in Tampa. But IMO he's lost a few miles off his fastball, but his knowledge and experience made up for a lot of it.
 

pappymojo

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I can't imagine not being happy with this signing.

If he is healthy, fantastic. We signed a very good player for a very low salary. If he wins the starting job, Belichick will be able to take advantage of his strength. Plus, the Patriots will then be in position to either tag and sign him or to recoup a comp pick.

If he is healthier than last year, but still a little bit less than he was in his prime, he should be able to provide both some veteran leadership and some extramotivation for Stidham.

If he is not healthy, there is almost no damage to the team's salary cap.

Regardless of how it works out, I would assume this is also a healthy reminder to the team that the G.M. hasn't given up on the coming season despite all of the players who left this off season.

It may not work out, but I can't see many ways for it to fail.