2020 Pats Off-Season: QB Discussion Only

BaseballJones

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I expect about a third of the team to turn over, which is the NFL average each year. So of course the team is going to look different. And yet there will also be lots of similarities.

If Brady returns, they're not surrounding him with trash. They didn't even do that this year. They suffered some key injuries and a huge WR signing (AB) didn't work out. And they went 12-4. If Brady returns, this team is going to be good. Potentially very good.
 

McBride11

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I liked Super Nomarios list.

1) Brady returns (but since this is the what if HE doesnt thread.
2) Go with Stidham. Not so long ago Pats went 11-5 with Matt Cassel.

I think that is the solution
As remarkable as what Bridgewater did this year, he was on a very talented team.
Anything is possible but I doubt Teddy is the cog to put them over the top, esp after that total sum of 30mm cap hit.

If Teddy wants a chance at a ring as a starter and says Ill take 10m (20m cap hit), I consider it.

The rest of the listed notable FA are drek (or too expensive.)

So get on with the Stidham era othwerwise

(FTR I think Brady comes back, at a discounted discount, guy wants 2 year and to win. No way going out on his career with a pick 6 in the playoffs)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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If Brady leaves, I definitely prefer playing Stidham over a FA like Bridgewater. If Stidham plays well, maybe he’s the long term solution. If he plays poorly, you likely lose enough games to draft the long term solution.

With a guy like Bridgewater, the floor is lower but the ceiling isn’t much higher. You’re not winning anything meaningful, you’re just avoiding bottoming out and putting yourself in worse position to find the next guy.
 

tims4wins

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If Brady leaves, I definitely prefer playing Stidham over a FA like Bridgewater. If Stidham plays well, maybe he’s the long term solution. If he plays poorly, you likely lose enough games to draft the long term solution.

With a guy like Bridgewater, the floor is lower but the ceiling isn’t much higher. You’re not winning anything meaningful, you’re just avoiding bottoming out and putting yourself in worse position to find the next guy.
Completely agree with this line of thinking
 

boca

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Bob Kraft quotes on Brady -

“Before the season started,” Kraft said, “it was very important to Tom that he be free to do whatever he wanted at the end of the year. You know what I said to myself? That any person who plays 20 years for this team and helps us get to six Super Bowls, and been really selfless, has earned that right. I love the young man like he’s part of my family. Blood family. Anyone who’s done that has earned the right to control his future after 20 years. And you know, my hope and prayer is number one, he play for the Patriots. Or number two, he retires. He has the freedom to decide what he wants to do and what’s in his own best personal interest.”
“I’m thinking of all that, of all the quarterbacks who went elsewhere, and I just hope and believe that Tom . . . he is so special that he’s earned the right to do what’s best for him. . . . But I just hope and pray we fit into his plans. He is unique in the kind of leader he is, his work ethic, his selfless nature, everything. Think about it: He’s been with us 20 percent of the life of the NFL.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/06/nfl-wild-card-tom-brady-fmia-peter-king/
 

bsj

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IMO if Brady is coming back it will be because he wants to take a discount so the team can get more weapons. I can’t see him taking full boat to stay here knowing that likely means the same type
Of issue they saw this time
 

BaseballJones

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Agreed, @bsj. Everyone here (and elsewhere) talking like the Pats are gonna need to shell out $30 million to keep him...nothing in that story by King indicates that Brady is looking to squeeze dollars out of Kraft (or any other team). He just loves playing football, thinks he's still good enough to lead a team to a championship, wants to get better and get after ring #7. And clearly he wants to do that with the Patriots. But as he, Kraft, and BB all understand, it's not just one person's decision (though Brady could obviously simply choose to not return to NE). This will be something all of them will have to work out. But I think he only comes back here if he works to help the team get better, and he knows that in order for it to get better, they need to free up some dollars. He won't take peanuts, but he won't squeeze them either.
 

EL Jeffe

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In theory, it should be a buyer's market for FA QBs. There just aren't too many open jobs available and NE will be seen as a prime landing spot for a make good contract. I'm a Stidham fanboy, so he's my Plan A if Brady walks. I'd then bring in a cheap veteran in the 1/$5 million range who maaaaybe has some upside and could turn into something with a change of scenery. Mariota is an obvious choice (one really nice year, hasn't looked quite right since his mysterious elbow injury a couple of years ago). They supposedly liked Bortles in the Jimmy G. draft. I know, he's Blake Bortles. I'm just saying. He was still a top pick who got his team to an AFC Championship (perhaps in spite of him, but he got there). Bridgewater doesn't do much for me, but I don't think he'll be expensive because of the market. Rivers would be an interesting wild card if he didn't care about money and just wanted to play for Belichick for a year.

It's a 2 QB draft (Burrow, Herbert) and they aren't moving from #23 into the top 3. Outside those two, I don't see an upgrade over Stidham. Maybe Eason - he has a pedigree and physical skills, but there's a lot of questions on him.
 

joe dokes

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"I'm told." Yawn.

I dont know Tom Brady, but it really doesn't appear that he tells anyone much of anything. I'd guess that Glazer was indeed "told" something, but it was the opinion of someone who, by definition, doesn't know what he's talking about, because Brady doesn't share those thoughts with many people. If his wife or agent were leaking to Glazer, they'd be replaced. If its Guerrero, he'd probably get some dirty looks from TB.
 

Zososoxfan

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Matt Miller from Bleacher Report ranks his top ten and thinks it could be a potentially historic draft class.
Total homer call here, but Donovan People Jones (DPJ) from Michigan just declared for the draft. He has a 2nd round grade from what I've seen and his stock is almost certain to improve at the combine. 6'2'', 208 lbs., IIRC was the #1 national WR in his HS class. Is a punt returner, but at the NFL-level likely only as a backup. Comfortable playing any of the WR positions although not likely strong enough to beat a press. Very good hands, created lots of separation. Production was not good in college due to Michigan, not him.

I also loved watching KJ Hamler in college, but not sure if his size will be a problem in The League. He's also a RS Soph, so not even sure he's eligible or declared.

There's other WRs that are obviously better in this class, but if they want to double up, these guys drop, or the Pats focus on other positions then these guys are certainly worth consideration.
 

loshjott

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"I'm told." Yawn.

I dont know Tom Brady, but it really doesn't appear that he tells anyone much of anything. I'd guess that Glazer was indeed "told" something, but it was the opinion of someone who, by definition, doesn't know what he's talking about, because Brady doesn't share those thoughts with many people. If his wife or agent were leaking to Glazer, they'd be replaced. If its Guerrero, he'd probably get some dirty looks from TB.
So, Guerrero is more important to TB than agent or wife?
 

tims4wins

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Total homer call here, but Donovan People Jones (DPJ) from Michigan just declared for the draft. He has a 2nd round grade from what I've seen and his stock is almost certain to improve at the combine. 6'2'', 208 lbs., IIRC was the #1 national WR in his HS class. Is a punt returner, but at the NFL-level likely only as a backup. Comfortable playing any of the WR positions although not likely strong enough to beat a press. Very good hands, created lots of separation. Production was not good in college due to Michigan, not him.

I also loved watching KJ Hamler in college, but not sure if his size will be a problem in The League. He's also a RS Soph, so not even sure he's eligible or declared.

There's other WRs that are obviously better in this class, but if they want to double up, these guys drop, or the Pats focus on other positions then these guys are certainly worth consideration.
Seems like a prototypical Patriot from that perspective
 

JimD

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"I'm told." Yawn.

I dont know Tom Brady, but it really doesn't appear that he tells anyone much of anything. I'd guess that Glazer was indeed "told" something, but it was the opinion of someone who, by definition, doesn't know what he's talking about, because Brady doesn't share those thoughts with many people. If his wife or agent were leaking to Glazer, they'd be replaced. If its Guerrero, he'd probably get some dirty looks from TB.
Maybe, but the message does seem consistent with Brady wanting unrestricted free agency. Whether it came from his agents or a teammate who's talked with Tom about those things, I don't think it hurts Team TB12 to put a reminder out there that Tom's been a team player all these years, and that onus is now on Kraft and Belichick to take care of him.
 

[icon]

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If Brady leaves, I definitely prefer playing Stidham over a FA like Bridgewater. If Stidham plays well, maybe he’s the long term solution. If he plays poorly, you likely lose enough games to draft the long term solution.

With a guy like Bridgewater, the floor is lower but the ceiling isn’t much higher. You’re not winning anything meaningful, you’re just avoiding bottoming out and putting yourself in worse position to find the next guy.
I've gotta agree here. Option 1a and 1b is sign Brady if possible.

ABSENT THAT, With Brady's cap hit, signing a FA QB That gives a boost over Stidham just pulls too much juice out of play. Starting Stidham frees up ~$18-20MM (realistically) for some major improvements elsewhere... and has the added bonus of letting us see what we have in him. This is obviously pending BB feeling like he has a realistic shot at being the future and is willing to roll the dice for a season with him.

Given what I'm hearing is a brutal schedule, coupled with the resurgence of the Bills, I'd put our odds of a playoff berth at ~60-70% next year anyway.
 

joe dokes

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Maybe, but the message does seem consistent with Brady wanting unrestricted free agency. Whether it came from his agents or a teammate who's talked with Tom about those things, I don't think it hurts Team TB12 to put a reminder out there that Tom's been a team player all these years, and that onus is now on Kraft and Belichick to take care of him.
It's all possible. The take that made the most sense to me was that it's about Brady wanting some control that comes with FA for the first time ever, but not necessarily the mega-payday. That lines up with Kraft's most recent comment (not that that means much). It's no secret -- to Brady or anyone else -- that there aren't a lot of teams that could both give him the mega-pay AND surround him with mega-talent. And an even smaller list that want to, given their own QB situations.
 

[icon]

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It's all possible. The take that made the most sense to me was that it's about Brady wanting some control that comes with FA for the first time ever, but not necessarily the mega-payday. That lines up with Kraft's most recent comment (not that that means much). It's no secret -- to Brady or anyone else -- that there aren't a lot of teams that could both give him the mega-pay AND surround him with mega-talent. And an even smaller list that want to, given their own QB situations.
He has publicly said he will not give a home team discount this time around.

While that doesn't automatically mean he's looking for a mega payday, it does imply money is absolutely a factor this time around.
 

BaseballJones

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That's not him saying it publicly. That's Jay Glazer reporting that he feels that way.
And from an unnamed source. Brady has never ever indicated that he's after big money. Never. It would be completely counter to everything he's ever pursued as a pro to NOW go after big money.

The story says, "As Glazer says, while he can't imagine Brady wanting to play on any of the respective teams that are in need of a QB right now, what he's hearing is that money seems to be the biggest motive for the 42 year old. So, whichever team wants to give him the most money may end up winning the Brady sweepstakes in 2020."

I mean...come on. Suddenly, Brady is after the money?
 

Mystic Merlin

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He has publicly said he will not give a home team discount this time around.

While that doesn't automatically mean he's looking for a mega payday, it does imply money is absolutely a factor this time around.
It also doesn’t address the bigger question: what is his market value?

I think the media is, and will continue to, avoid that question because (a) it’s harder to ascertain and (b) it gives them room to argue later on that whatever the Pats give him is axiomatically market value/not a hometown discount.

Also, what does it mean that he won’t take a ‘hometown discount’? Will he go to the highest bidder period? Or will he only go to the highest bidder among certain teams? Will he take a contract from another team if it offers one dollar more than the Pats’ offer? Or will another team have to offer him a materially better contract (more years and materially higher guarantees) for him to bolt? The reporting on this topic thus far, Glazer’s being the prime example, is pretty underwhelming in how it glosses over obvious questions the reporting begs.
 

8slim

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Needless to say, every article and quote will be dissected to a ludicrous degree over the next 2 months. In terms of money, given Brady's career earnings, both on and off the field, along with his wife's income, an additional $7-10 million isn't going to change his life a smidgeon. And given everything we know about him, it's hard to imagine him going to another team that doesn't have the pieces in place to make a legit SB run in 2020, just to get paid.
 

wilked

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Tom Brady Net Worth: $180MM
Gisele Net Worth: $360MM

I’m not putting it there to say that $5-10MM isn’t important to him, but to offer some perspective. I think for the average middle class family it is the equivalent of $10,000-$20,000 salary negotiation. It’s important but you might leave money on the table for ability to work from home, reduces commute, etc.

The only place I see where pushing for that extra money is relevant is “soft” items like respect, pride, recognition. That extra money will make very little material difference in his life
 

OurF'ingCity

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The question is how much as a relative matter Brady will prioritize (a) a shot at another title; (b) maximizing his earnings; and (c) intangibles like quality of life, location, etc. If his overriding goal is a shot at another title I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't come back to New England despite their obvious issues on offense - does anyone really think next year's Chargers team with Brady is more likely to win a Super Bowl than next year's Patriots with Brady? Offense wasn't even really the issue for the Chargers this year, it was their mediocre-to-bad defense, and a big Brady contract will restrict the Chargers to some degree from filling holes on that side of the ball.

Conversely if Brady is mostly focused on maximizing his earnings and is willing to sacrifice his chances at another Super Bowl to at least some degree, he is probably a goner as I am sure the Chargers or some other team (Tampa? etc.) with more cap space will be willing to break the bank for him just to get more fans in the door and get more coverage, if nothing else.

The intangibles work both ways, IMO - on the one hand I am sure Brady would prefer living in a city like LA over Boston for many reasons, but on the other hand he also has tons of relationships in New England, his kids have lived here their entire lives, etc.
 

Pedro's Complaint

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I really hope the Pats bring Brady back. I have no idea if Stidham is ready; if he is, then that's my clear Plan B.

I keep thinking of Dan Marino. The Dolphins weren't the Patriots in the eighties and nineties, but Miami was good. Miami went 147–93 from 1983-1999 with Marino. Miami went 149-171 from 2000-19. Finding a quarterback is hard.
 

DJnVa

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And from an unnamed source. Brady has never ever indicated that he's after big money. Never. It would be completely counter to everything he's ever pursued as a pro to NOW go after big money.

The story says, "As Glazer says, while he can't imagine Brady wanting to play on any of the respective teams that are in need of a QB right now, what he's hearing is that money seems to be the biggest motive for the 42 year old. So, whichever team wants to give him the most money may end up winning the Brady sweepstakes in 2020."

I mean...come on. Suddenly, Brady is after the money?

I mean, maybe. But it doesn't make sense, at least to me.

The entire reason he's taken less is to surround himself with better talent (whether or not it always works is another story) and now suddenly some team is going to blow a huge percentage of their cap space on him, which means that there will be less for other talent AND he's going to go to a new city and new system? In order for this to work, the team he goes to is going to have to have young talent still on a rookie deal.

I just don't get it.
 

Archer1979

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It also doesn’t address the bigger question: what is his market value?

I think the media is, and will continue to, avoid that question because (a) it’s harder to ascertain and (b) it gives them room to argue later on that whatever the Pats give him is axiomatically market value/not a hometown discount.

Also, what does it mean that he won’t take a ‘hometown discount’? Will he go to the highest bidder period? Or will he only go to the highest bidder among certain teams? Will he take a contract from another team if it offers one dollar more than the Pats’ offer? Or will another team have to offer him a materially better contract (more years and materially higher guarantees) for him to bolt? The reporting on this topic thus far, Glazer’s being the prime example, is pretty underwhelming in how it glosses over obvious questions the reporting begs.
The bolded is the most relevant question for those in the "Brady is looking to get paid" camp. This isn't Brady in his prime with many years left. He's worth more to the Patriots from a marketing standpoint than he is to any other NFL team. The comp isn't perfect as Jeter was a shell of his former self, but this is really Derek Jeter in his last year or two in NY.
 

tims4wins

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The question is how much as a relative matter Brady will prioritize (a) a shot at another title; (b) maximizing his earnings; and (c) intangibles like quality of life, location, etc. If his overriding goal is a shot at another title I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't come back to New England despite their obvious issues on offense - does anyone really think next year's Chargers team with Brady is more likely to win a Super Bowl than next year's Patriots with Brady? Offense wasn't even really the issue for the Chargers this year, it was their mediocre-to-bad defense, and a big Brady contract will restrict the Chargers to some degree from filling holes on that side of the ball.

Conversely if Brady is mostly focused on maximizing his earnings and is willing to sacrifice his chances at another Super Bowl to at least some degree, he is probably a goner as I am sure the Chargers or some other team (Tampa? etc.) with more cap space will be willing to break the bank for him just to get more fans in the door and get more coverage, if nothing else.

The intangibles work both ways, IMO - on the one hand I am sure Brady would prefer living in a city like LA over Boston for many reasons, but on the other hand he also has tons of relationships in New England, his kids have lived here their entire lives, etc.
Specific to LA, I think word is that Gisele hates it there.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I find it helpful to analyze these situations by looking for the top couple priorities/goals for each player.

For me, Brady will ultimately prioritize two things: 1) control over his timeline and 2) opportunity to win (which means, to some degree, quality of offensive weapons). We can debate which order for those.

Kraft priortizes 1) maximizing success of Pats going forward on a multi-year basis and 2) managing the intersection of fans relationship with BB/Brady and their relationship with each other

BB prioritizes 1) winning (arguably also 2), showing he can win post-Brady?)

If all that is correct, this is 0% about money, but is to a huge degree about whether BB believe Brady can be sufficiently good for long enough to make the commitment to live by Brady's timeline. I don't know BB's assessment there, but I suspect that drives everything else. If they can align there, then everyone wins by committing to a smaller-money deal that gives Brady control over timeline and makes him feel heard on the investments this offseason---which are improved by a smaller Brady deal.

Related to that question: isn't one potential source of friction---and also a potential path to a solution--that BB historically doesn't want to 'borrow' from future cap years and Brady wants him to in order to maximize next couple years? If so, the last contract adjustment made looks like a pretty smart way to weight the assessment towards borrowing, becasue Brady's dead money hit makes it more favorable to sign him longer-term.
 

tims4wins

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I find it helpful to analyze these situations by looking for the top couple priorities/goals for each player.

For me, Brady will ultimately prioritize two things: 1) control over his timeline and 2) opportunity to win (which means, to some degree, quality of offensive weapons). We can debate which order for those.

Kraft priortizes 1) maximizing success of Pats going forward on a multi-year basis and 2) managing the intersection of fans relationship with BB/Brady and their relationship with each other

BB prioritizes 1) winning (arguably also 2), showing he can win post-Brady?)

If all that is correct, this is 0% about money, but is to a huge degree about whether BB believe Brady can be sufficiently good for long enough to make the commitment to live by Brady's timeline. I don't know BB's assessment there, but I suspect that drives everything else. If they can align there, then everyone wins by committing to a smaller-money deal that gives Brady control over timeline and makes him feel heard on the investments this offseason---which are improved by a smaller Brady deal.

Related to that question: isn't one potential source of friction---and also a potential path to a solution--that BB historically doesn't want to 'borrow' from future cap years and Brady wants him to in order to maximize next couple years? If so, the last contract adjustment made looks like a pretty smart way to weight the assessment towards borrowing, becasue Brady's dead money hit makes it more favorable to sign him longer-term.
I agree with all of this, with the exception of your #2 on BB - I don't think BB cares one iota about winning without Brady. But that's just my opinion.
 

EL Jeffe

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There are some decent, but mainly underwhelming, free agent TEs available. Check out: https://overthecap.com/free-agency/

The most notable available TEs:

Eric Ebron
Tyler Eifert (actually played all 16 games this year)
Darren Fells
Hunter Henry
Austin Hooper

Eifert and Henry have some durability issues, but strike me (from afar) as the sort of TEs that the Patriots would like. Hooper will probably be expensive. Ebron has talent, but inconsistent. In any event, they can't go into 2020 with Lacosse and Izzo as their top options.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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It also doesn’t address the bigger question: what is his market value?

I think the media is, and will continue to, avoid that question because (a) it’s harder to ascertain and (b) it gives them room to argue later on that whatever the Pats give him is axiomatically market value/not a hometown discount.

Also, what does it mean that he won’t take a ‘hometown discount’? Will he go to the highest bidder period? Or will he only go to the highest bidder among certain teams? Will he take a contract from another team if it offers one dollar more than the Pats’ offer? Or will another team have to offer him a materially better contract (more years and materially higher guarantees) for him to bolt? The reporting on this topic thus far, Glazer’s being the prime example, is pretty underwhelming in how it glosses over obvious questions the reporting begs.
One of the difficulties is that it's in the Patriots' interest not to let him ever get to test the market. Once 3/18 comes and goes, the 2020 cap hit is $13.5 million. There's nothing they can do about it. At that point, they will be hard pressed to take the $13.5 million cap hit and also pay $20 million plus. If, instead, they restructure him before he becomes a free agent, they can spread that out.

If the Patriots were to let him hit the market and then bring a deal back to them to consider, they have less flexibility at that point. They could still sign him as a free agent and then structure the new deal in a way that gets money to Brady and also takes into account the $13.5m already on the cap, and which kicks the can further down the road, but it's definitely harder.

I guess, put simply, if he wants to test the market and not do a deal before 3/18 it makes it harder, though certainly not impossible, for him to come back.
 

Super Nomario

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Related to that question: isn't one potential source of friction---and also a potential path to a solution--that BB historically doesn't want to 'borrow' from future cap years and Brady wants him to in order to maximize next couple years? If so, the last contract adjustment made looks like a pretty smart way to weight the assessment towards borrowing, becasue Brady's dead money hit makes it more favorable to sign him longer-term.
The Patriots do this at times and did it quite a bit last year, pushing big hits for Gilmore and Mason into the future and putting funny money years on Brady's and AB's contracts to fit them under the cap. I'd say they're not as aggressive as PHI and NO about pushing hits into the future to make stuff fit now, but they're not conservative like GB when it comes to only "paying as you go." They're careful about handing out big deals, but I'd say they're middle-of-the-road in terms of structuring aggressiveness.

One thought I've had is that, counter to my intuition at least, it's easier to fit a big deal for a guy like Thuney under the 2020 cap than a short deal for McCourty. Thuney gets compared to Andrew Norwell; Norwell's Y1 cap hit was only $5 MM, because you can get creative spreading the hits across five years. Much harder to do that on a one- or two- year deal.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jules was great this year but my offensive MVP is Thuney. The offensive line actually looked good by the end of the season and Andrews is coming back. When they have natural FBs and tight ends who can block for shit this will be back to being a power running team. Continuity is a powerful tool on any unit but especially OL. I don't think it is a coincidence that Mason and Karras both played better near the end of the season (some of that was health related and random performance fluctuations too).

Pay Thuney his money. Keep interior pressure off of Tom. Keep the Offensive Line Great. BB/Scar 2020.
 

lexrageorge

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One of the difficulties is that it's in the Patriots' interest not to let him ever get to test the market. Once 3/18 comes and goes, the 2020 cap hit is $13.5 million. There's nothing they can do about it. At that point, they will be hard pressed to take the $13.5 million cap hit and also pay $20 million plus. If, instead, they restructure him before he becomes a free agent, they can spread that out.

If the Patriots were to let him hit the market and then bring a deal back to them to consider, they have less flexibility at that point. They could still sign him as a free agent and then structure the new deal in a way that gets money to Brady and also takes into account the $13.5m already on the cap, and which kicks the can further down the road, but it's definitely harder.

I guess, put simply, if he wants to test the market and not do a deal before 3/18 it makes it harder, though certainly not impossible, for him to come back.
And the above is exactly why Brady pays his agent. The working assumption is that Don Yee is doing everything he can to have back-channel, under the radar discussions with the front offices of various teams to determine a range of what Brady would get and from whom if Brady should hit the market. FWIW, Yee is the same agent that landed Garoppolo the mega deal with the 49'ers.

Brady's team knows that the Pats will be hindered by the dead cap hit if they go into the new league year without an extension. Which further reinforces the point that if there is no extension by 3/18, we are likely witnessing the start of the Stidham Era.

Pure speculation (because that is all we can do based on the very limited information we have) on my part is that Brady doesn't feel the need to be the highest paid QB in 2020, nor would he feel the need to skip town over a gap of $5M AAV. However, if the Pats are offering a one year $10M guarantee with another $10M in NLTBE incentives, and his agent feels that Brady could get 2/$50 guaranteed from another team, he gone.
 

BigJimEd

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If the Patriots were to let him hit the market and then bring a deal back to them to consider, they have less flexibility at that point. They could still sign him as a free agent and then structure the new deal in a way that gets money to Brady and also takes into account the $13.5m already on the cap, and which kicks the can further down the road, but it's definitely harder
I've seen this stated several times here and elsewhere but I'm not seeing the difference. Unless you think he'll take less before hand but that doesn't seem to be what you are saying.

It might take a little more creativity but the money is the same. They are likely kicking money down the road either way. That 13M is there regardless.
 

Super Nomario

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One thought I've had is that, counter to my intuition at least, it's easier to fit a big deal for a guy like Thuney under the 2020 cap than a short deal for McCourty. Thuney gets compared to Andrew Norwell; Norwell's Y1 cap hit was only $5 MM, because you can get creative spreading the hits across five years. Much harder to do that on a one- or two- year deal.
OK, so maybe this won't work. 2020 is the last year of the CBA, so there are several considerations that make creative cap solutions more challenging: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26073422/nfl-cba-quirks-a-big-effect-2020-offseason
1) no "post-6/1" designations
2) contracts signed now can't escalate more than 30% year-on-year. So you can't do that small Y1 hit for Thuney because his raise for 2021 could only be 30%, and his raise from 2021 to 2022 could only be 30%, etc.
3) NLTBE incentives count on the 2020 cap when they hit, not 2021.
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
32,548
Hingham, MA
OK, so maybe this won't work. 2020 is the last year of the CBA, so there are several considerations that make creative cap solutions more challenging: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26073422/nfl-cba-quirks-a-big-effect-2020-offseason
1) no "post-6/1" designations
2) contracts signed now can't escalate more than 30% year-on-year. So you can't do that small Y1 hit for Thuney because his raise for 2021 could only be 30%, and his raise from 2021 to 2022 could only be 30%, etc.
3) NLTBE incentives count on the 2020 cap when they hit, not 2021.
Wow, these are really big items that have flown under the radar and will really screw up contracts this offseason
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
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I've seen this stated several times here and elsewhere but I'm not seeing the difference. Unless you think he'll take less before hand but that doesn't seem to be what you are saying.

It might take a little more creativity but the money is the same. They are likely kicking money down the road either way. That 13M is there regardless.
Maybe. I think the idea is that if you sign him prior to 3/18, you can spread his existing dead cap money out, but once he becomes a free agent it is accelerated and you cannot spread it out. So, whatever his cap hit for 2020 under a new deal will be tacked on to the $13.5 million.

I think what you're saying is that this no big deal because they will just find a way to make the 2020 cap hit small. But there are only so many tricks you can use for a player signing a short deal. You can use the voidable trick again, but assuming he's going to want something like $40 to $50 million for 2020 and 2021, there are only so many ways to split that money up and the number for 2020 is going to be significant when tacked on to the $13.5 million. If they could spread the $13.5 million over this year and next year for example, that gives them more smoothing options.

But, yeah, in the end it's a zero sum game. Pay now or pay later. The thing about 3/18 is that it limits them on the pay later side of things once it passes.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
16,002
With regards to Brady's contract:

Prior to the season, the Pats converted most of his 2019 salary into guarantee, and added an additional $8M to the guarantee, some of which was in the form of a 2019 roster bonus. The actual signing bonus amount that got amortized over the 3 "years" of his contract was $20.25M, of which $6.75M was accounted for in the team's 2019 salary cap.

If the contract voids, the remaining $13.5M of the signing bonus automatically gets charged to the Pats 2020 cap. And once that happens on 3/18, that $13.5M cannot be removed (much like Pedroia's contract :) ).

There seems to be conflicting information on the interwebs around the cap implications if the Pats do a restructure prior to the void date. Some say that the $13.5M still accrues in 2020; others say that this amount can be stretched over the term of the restructured deal. Assuming the latter, and assuming a 2 year extension, then the accounting hit for 2020 would be $6.75M, plus obviously whatever other bonus and salary amounts from the new deal.
 

[icon]

Member
Jul 30, 2005
230
Memphis, TN
Tua going pro. Kiper has him at #12. Any chance....
I bet he goes well before that...and also that if he drops into the teens the Pats make a play for him.
Oof... Tua's litany of injuries terrify me. Bigtime upside, Bigtime injury bust potential, IMHO.

Broke Finger (1 out of 10 concern rating... meh)
Sprained Knee (2 - missed no practice)
Quad Injury (2 - played following week)
High Ankle Sprain (Left) (4 - Had "Tight Rope" procedure to surgically "repair" - Played 1 month later in Champ Game)
High Ankle Sprain (Right) (4 -Had "Tight Rope" Procedure to surgically "repair" - Missed 1 game / 2 weeks (bye))
Hip Posterior Wall Fracture (7-8 - Could have been career ending - Reportedly will fully recover, but...)

Someone will roll the dice on him... It wouldn't be me.
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
36,017
AZ
There seems to be conflicting information on the interwebs around the cap implications if the Pats do a restructure prior to the void date. Some say that the $13.5M still accrues in 2020; others say that this amount can be stretched over the term of the restructured deal. Assuming the latter, and assuming a 2 year extension, then the accounting hit for 2020 would be $6.75M, plus obviously whatever other bonus and salary amounts from the new deal.
That's how it would work, I'm pretty sure. It would be the exact same as the Brees extension last year. They signed him to a new 2/50 deal a couple of days before the contract voided. That ended up spreading his $21 million cap charge into $10.5 million in 2019 and 5 million in each of the voidable years, 2020 and 2021. (Though that's an illusion, since the $10 million is going to get accelerated anyway.) And then they tacked on the new comp to that $10 million cap hit and spread it out over the future voiding years.

That's what would happen with Brady -- $6.75m next year. If he did a 2/50 that is really a one year deal with a void it would probably be similar to Brees -- he would get around $25 to $27 million guaranteed with a total cap hit around $20 million and the can is kicked down the road. But my guess is that Brady may not want to do a one year deal, but instead will want two years, so it may very well end up looking like a 4/100 or something with 2 years voiding.