2020 Pats Off-Season: QB Discussion Only

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
4,495
NH
Have a super hard time seeing Tua go past Miami/San Diego with 5/6. Tua is at worst the third best player in this draft.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
39,657
Melrose, MA
The question is how much as a relative matter Brady will prioritize (a) a shot at another title; (b) maximizing his earnings; and (c) intangibles like quality of life, location, etc.
And we really don't know his priorities. In the past, he has not prioritized maximizing his earnings. But things may be different now, in a couple of ways.

First, he's at the end of his career. It's very possible that the next contract he signs will be his last, or that even if it isn't his market value will be at an all time (for him) low the next time he signs. So making that last big financial score could be more important to him this year than it has been in the past.

Second, after this season he may have doubts about the Patriots ability to run a title contender out there. So he may not see the usual trade off - take somewhat less money in exchange for playing on a more talented team - as applying.

Third, after this season, and considering his age, he may doubt his own ability to push a team over the top, even if the Patriots are able to make the necessary rebuilding moves.

If he's going to re-sign with the Patriots under the theory of trying to get banner #7 before he retires, the Patriots are going to have to sell him on the fact that that is possible.

There are a couple of other relevant considerations here.

First, what is Brady's market value around the league right now? What teams would be interested, and at what cost? Will Brady only be interested in teams where he can show up and make a title run, or, if he decides to leave, will money be more of a factor?

Second, what is the dynamic around Kraft, Belichick, and the extent to which the Pats are willing to mortgage the future to keep Brady? Belichick is getting up there in age, too, and he did not exactly do a bang up job at assembling the 2019 team and coaching it up this year. Does Belichick want to stick around to rebuild after Brady leaves? Or is his coaching future short enough now that he is more willing to leave when Brady does? And if that is true, is Kraft willing to mortgage the future for one last run? Heck, they could sign Brady to a 5-year guranteed deal knowing full well he won't be playing 5 more years if they are willing to blow up their future cap situation.

All in all, there are too many moving parts here to really know what will happen.

Maybe the most likely thing is that the same thing that has always happened happens again: they run it back with Brady not looking for the big financial score. But there are a lot of other possibilities this time around.
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,283
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
It’s not about a discount let se. It’s about math. Pats can say, hey we want you back. We can give you full boat and match other offers but then that’s it. You will have the same weapons. Or if we can can come under we can add some more talent.

Or Brady says screw that I can go to X where they already have talent and get full boat. Which is fair and his right.
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
7,614
New York City
If he's going to re-sign with the Patriots under the theory of trying to get banner #7 before he retires, the Patriots are going to have to sell him on the fact that that is possible.
I would hope Brady is smart enough to realize that even simply rolling back out the same team they had this year would give them a strong chance to win next year (this is a reductive hypothetical obviously since people age, many players are free agents, etc.).

Maybe this is a topic for another thread, but I've become more convinced after thinking about it the past few days that, overall, this year's Patriots team was no worse than the team that won it all last year. Their defense was better this year and their offense was worse (per DVOA, they had the 5th best offense and 16th best defense last year and the 11th best offense and best defense this year). And their record was better this year (12-4) vs. last year (11-5). And there were just as many people going into last year's playoffs thinking the Patriots had no chance to win as this year - the only difference being the Patriots peaked during the playoffs last year and caught a few lucky breaks that this year's team obviously didn't - someone else pointed out in another thread that the Pats' fumble luck down the stretch this year was an extreme negative outlier (health, especially on the offensive line, was a key difference as well).

We can debate the takeaways of the 2019 season in one of the many other threads but my point is that it would be pretty shorty-sighted of Brady, who by all accounts is an extremely smart guy, to think that somehow he has a better shot at a title on, say, the Chargers (or the Bears, or Tampa, or whoever) than he does with the Patriots. He shouldn't have to be "sold" on that as I think it's fairly intuitive just from past performance and looking at the makeup of the teams. Now, if Brady isn't so much concerned about winning a title as he is about setting records, etc., that may a different story - a case can certainly be made that his individual stats would be better next year on a different team with more established pass-catching options and/or a warmer climate/a dome. Brady doesn't strike me as someone who is overly concerned with personal stats but as you say things may be different now.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
One course of action would be to try a reclamation project - next year's Tannehill or Fitzpatrick. Sign a "failed" QB for less than $10m and see if you can turn him around. Meanwhile keep developing Stidham if we like him, or draft the next guy in April and bring him along on the back burner.

Looking around the league there are guys who might fit that bill. I'm not a QB coach so I don't know who's most fixable.

I'd be more excited heading into the season like that, knowing that we're trying to build something sustainable around the QB position, than investing a ton of cap space into either the Brady endgame or an overpaid FA and not having the resources to put a good team around him.