2020 Pats: QB Edition

Rudy's Curve

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I can't help but wonder how much of that is Marv Lewis though.
Yeah, noted offensive playcaller Marvin Lewis really called shit games there.

Lewis certainly had his warts, but blaming him for Dalton's performances is really dumb. Dalton was surrounded by a HOF-caliber WR and LT for a large majority of his career and a bunch of other good players. Again, it's on him a lot more than the guys around him.
 

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I'll admit that the Cinci taint gives me a tiny bit of pause, but two counterpoints:

1. Did Dalton ever make his teammates better? QBs are dependent on a lot of other people around them, sure, but the good ones get the most out of their teammates as well. I think it's hard to argue that Dalton accomplished that with the Bengals.
How is the decision made if Dalton helped Green or if Green helped Dalton since they've never played with anyone else. How do you quantify it?
 

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They need Hoyer on this team IMO given the COVID situation. Have to have a guy who knows the playbook inside and out.
I'm on this train ... although 24 feet away.

The reluctance of many to hand the reins to Stidham is mind-boggling to me. You bring in a retread starter in a bizarre enough offseason, the gain you get is unlikely worth much
 

Rudy's Curve

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How is the decision made if Dalton helped Green or if Green helped Dalton since they've never played with anyone else. How do you quantify it?
Draft pedigree? Or, you know, actually watch the games? Plus Dalton's numbers without Green are atrocious.
 

Captaincoop

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How is the decision made if Dalton helped Green or if Green helped Dalton since they've never played with anyone else. How do you quantify it?
Right. I also don't understand how people evaluate quarterbacks around here. Brady was just fine last year, his decline last year at age 42 was all due to his lousy receivers. Dalton was no good even when he put up great numbers, that was all due to his receivers. Apparently it doesn't matter who plays QB, that's just a fungible spot that depends on weapons.
 

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Draft pedigree? Or, you know, actually watch the games? Plus Dalton's numbers without Green are atrocious.
I'll admit I don't see a lot of Cincy games. If you were being snarky there, it wasn't needed. I was legit asking. And draft pedigree isn't where I'd hang my hat on that--he's better because he was drafted higher?. And of course his numbers without Green would be worse. I'm not saying Green isn't good. I'm asking how you decide.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Right. I also don't understand how people evaluate quarterbacks around here. Brady was just fine last year, his decline last year at age 42 was all due to his lousy receivers. Dalton was no good even when he put up great numbers, that was all due to his receivers. Apparently it doesn't matter who plays QB, that's just a fungible spot that depends on weapons.
If you can't separate a JAG QB from a top-five pick that was on a HOF path before he started getting hurt, I don't know what to tell you.
 

Super Nomario

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Right. I also don't understand how people evaluate quarterbacks around here. Brady was just fine last year, his decline last year at age 42 was all due to his lousy receivers. Dalton was no good even when he put up great numbers, that was all due to his receivers. Apparently it doesn't matter who plays QB, that's just a fungible spot that depends on weapons.
Quarterback performance definitely fluctuates with supporting cast. With some quarterbacks more than others. If this were the 2008 Pats I think Dalton would be fine. 2020 is a problem, because the receivers (including tight end) are a problem.

That's why I much prefer Cam for this situation; he's basically had lousy receivers his whole career and managed to make some chicken salad now and again.
 

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Yeah, noted offensive playcaller Marvin Lewis really called shit games there.

Lewis certainly had his warts, but blaming him for Dalton's performances is really dumb. Dalton was surrounded by a HOF-caliber WR and LT for a large majority of his career and a bunch of other good players. Again, it's on him a lot more than the guys around him.
Good call, I'm sure Andy Dalton really hampered the offensive genius of Bob Bratkowski, Jay Gruden, and Hue Jackson...

Listen, I get Dalton isn't Brady. But Dalton with good coaching is probably better this year than 15 other teams have starting at QB.

edit: Can't forget Bill Lazor. He's a regular Norv Turner.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I'll admit I don't see a lot of Cincy games. If you were being snarky there, it wasn't needed.

And draft pedigree isn't where I'd hang my hat on that. And of course his numbers without Green would be worse. I'm not saying Green isn't good. I'm asking how you decide.

If it's simply looking where each was drafted then, whatever.
I think when you add them all together, the picture becomes pretty clear. Green came into the league as a much better player, and from watching every game and looking at Dalton's numbers without him, it's pretty clear he's continued to be the better player. Green was on a HOF path before injuries derailed him (and may still have a shot if he can rebound). Dalton has never been spoken of like that.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Good call, I'm sure Andy Dalton really hampered the offensive genius of Bob Bratkowski, Jay Gruden, and Hue Jackson...

Listen, I get Dalton isn't Brady. But Dalton with good coaching is probably better this year than 15 other teams have starting at QB.

edit: Can't forget Bill Lazor. He's a regular Norv Turner.
Dalton never played for Bratkowski. Gruden and Jackson got HC jobs. Lazor just got another OC job.

You might want to have the slightest idea of what you're talking about.
 

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Listen, I get Dalton isn't Brady. But Dalton with good coaching is probably better this year than 15 other teams have starting at QB.
But that's not the question, which is ... Would Dalton be better than Stidham?
 

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How is the decision made if Dalton helped Green or if Green helped Dalton since they've never played with anyone else. How do you quantify it?
A.J. Green is one of the best receivers in the NFL. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on that one. Also, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu both left and performed better with other teams.

We can argue over the quality of the coaching, but Dalton has had A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Mo Sanu at receiver. They've drafted a bunch of second round RBs in Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, and Joe Mixon. Tyler Boyd was a second round pick. For a few years the Bengals had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

It's not like the Dalton Bengals have been bereft of talent on the offensive side of the ball.
 

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If an expansion team with no prior history with either player was picking between the quarterbacks, they would take Dalton every time. But the Patriots don’t exist in a vacuum.

Hoyer has spent parts of five seasons and six offseasons with the Patriots. He knows the offense, and there’s no real question or worry with him as a backup or part-time starter. The Patriots have no idea when or if they’ll be able to hold an offseason workout program or training camp because of the coronavirus pandemic.

They have two quarterbacks in Stidham and Hoyer who will show up on Day 1 and start rolling without a learning curve. If the Patriots sign Dalton, they might not know what they have in him for months.

In an ideal world, Stidham will be the Patriots starter this season. So, ultimately, in deciding between Dalton and Hoyer, we’re talking about upside for a backup quarterback. Because of value and starting experience, there’s some appeal to pursuing Dalton. But when it comes down to it, it really doesn’t make much sense for the Patriots in the grand scheme of things in an uncertain offseason and a solid backup option already in place.

https://nesn.com/2020/04/should-patriots-pursue-andy-dalton-after-ex-bengals-qb-was-released/
 

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Wait, so now Sanu is so good he made shitty Dalton look good, and also so bad he made amazing Brady look shitty. Awesome.

I don't know how anyone can know much about what Dalton offers at this point. He's played for one team in his career and it's been one of the league's least stable and least well-coached clubs.

But we know he's at least capable of putting up good numbers in the NFL, because he's actually done that. So, score one for Andy Dalton over Hoyer and Stidham.

I'm high on Stidham and think he could be good...but we really have no idea. Bringing in Dalton to compete at minimal cost seems pretty reasonable.
 

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Would Dalton be better than Stidham?
Belichick is probably uniquely positioned to have the most educated guess on that question. Defensive minded HC who has had plenty of chances to scout Dalton for league games, including some big ones, and a good sense presumably of Stidham.

If Dalton is available at a decent show-me price this is probably the best yardstick we have had to date of Stidham. Or Belichick’s perception of Stidham at least.

I would be disappointed if the Patriots pursue Dalton. Not because I think he is a bad player. To the contrary I think he is a good player. But if the Patriots pursue him it would be hard not to view that at least in part as a Belichick referendum on Stidham. And I am hoping that Stidham has more upside than that in Belichick’s eyes. And looking forward to watching him play.
 

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If an expansion team with no prior history with either player was picking between the quarterbacks, they would take Dalton every time. But the Patriots don’t exist in a vacuum.

Hoyer has spent parts of five seasons and six offseasons with the Patriots. He knows the offense, and there’s no real question or worry with him as a backup or part-time starter. The Patriots have no idea when or if they’ll be able to hold an offseason workout program or training camp because of the coronavirus pandemic.

They have two quarterbacks in Stidham and Hoyer who will show up on Day 1 and start rolling without a learning curve. If the Patriots sign Dalton, they might not know what they have in him for months.

In an ideal world, Stidham will be the Patriots starter this season. So, ultimately, in deciding between Dalton and Hoyer, we’re talking about upside for a backup quarterback. Because of value and starting experience, there’s some appeal to pursuing Dalton. But when it comes down to it, it really doesn’t make much sense for the Patriots in the grand scheme of things in an uncertain offseason and a solid backup option already in place.

https://nesn.com/2020/04/should-patriots-pursue-andy-dalton-after-ex-bengals-qb-was-released/
Hoyer knows the offense and that's great. But he has zero upside. You're not winning your division with Brian Hoyer starting games.

So what happens if Stidham completely spits the bit? If the backup plan is to just fall apart and take a high draft pick, Hoyer as plan B is fine. But that doesn't feel like Belichick's MO.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I don't know how anyone can know much about what Dalton offers at this point. He's played for one team in his career and it's been one of the league's least stable and least well-coached clubs
They just had the same coach for 16 years. They've had two QBs start Week 1 for the last 16 years. That's, like, the definition of stable.

And again, Lewis certainly had his warts but you sound like Stephen A. Smith. There are plenty of places to read and numbers to look at without parroting lazy national narratives.
 

nighthob

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Wait, so now Sanu is so good he made shitty Dalton look good, and also so bad he made amazing Brady look shitty. Awesome.

I don't know how anyone can know much about what Dalton offers at this point. He's played for one team in his career and it's been one of the league's least stable and least well-coached clubs.

But we know he's at least capable of putting up good numbers in the NFL, because he's actually done that. So, score one for Andy Dalton over Hoyer and Stidham.

I'm high on Stidham and think he could be good...but we really have no idea. Bringing in Dalton to compete at minimal cost seems pretty reasonable.
Dalton had the younger, quicker Sanu, Brady played with the old/injured one. There's a slight difference.
 

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Dalton never played for Bratkowski. Gruden and Jackson got HC jobs. Lazor just got another OC job.

You might want to have the slightest idea of what you're talking about.
Maybe don't be a condescending douche? I mean, I know that's your thing. But it's tiring, and no one likes an asshole.

I was off by one year with Bratkowski, my bad. But those other coaches are terrible and you won't get much argument to the contrary. Ask Miami fans what they thought of Lazor.
 

nighthob

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So what happens if Stidham completely spits the bit? If the backup plan is to just fall apart and take a high draft pick, Hoyer as plan B is fine. But that doesn't feel like Belichick's MO.
Then they draft his replacement in a pretty good QB draft.
 

nighthob

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I was off by one year with Bratkowski, my bad. But those other coaches are terrible and you won't get much argument to the contrary. Ask Miami fans what they thought of Lazor.
Except from the teams that keep hiring them, maybe?
 

Rudy's Curve

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Maybe don't be a condescending douche? I mean, I know that's your thing. But it's tiring, and no one likes an asshole.

I was off by one year with Bratkowski, my bad. But those other coaches are terrible and you won't get much argument to the contrary.
They were so terrible...that the first two got HC jobs (and Gruden just got another OC job). Jackson would probably still be an OC if he wasn't an asshole. Lazor got another OC job.

What the fuck are you talking about?
 

E5 Yaz

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So what happens if Stidham completely spits the bit? If the backup plan is to just fall apart and take a high draft pick, Hoyer as plan B is fine. But that doesn't feel like Belichick's MO.
Or maybe it is? Extrapolate how Belichick plays the regular season — it really doesn't start until he see things shake out early — and maybe he treats a retooling the same way. They have to get younger and faster in a league where the best teams are already there. A season in the middle of the pack wouldn't be the worst thing for a guy who already takes the long view.
 

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They just had the same coach for 16 years. They've had two QBs start Week 1 for the last 16 years. That's, like, the definition of stable.

And again, Lewis certainly had his warts but you sound like Stephen A. Smith. There are plenty of places to read and numbers to look at without parroting lazy national narratives.
This is an obnoxious post. Just putting that out there.

In any case, Marvin Lewis kept his job through those years, and it was a running joke in the league that he had blackmail photos on ownership. At no point has Dalton played for a coaching staff considered even top half in the league. It's comical to argue the point that we don't know what Dalton might do moving to an elite coaching staff.
 

Captaincoop

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Or maybe it is? Extrapolate how Belichick plays the regular season — it really doesn't start until he see things shake out early — and maybe he treats a retooling the same way. They have to get younger and faster in a league where the best teams are already there. A season in the middle of the pack wouldn't be the worst thing for a guy who already takes the long view.
It could be. It certainly would not be crazy to do that. I just don't expect Belichick at his current age to just lay down for a year.
 

Super Nomario

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How is the decision made if Dalton helped Green or if Green helped Dalton since they've never played with anyone else. How do you quantify it?
Small sample, but Green put up virtually identical numbers with A.J. McCarron in the last 4-5 games of 2015, including the playoff game against Pittsburgh. And we have an extensive track record of Dalton without Green where he suffers considerably (as, to be fair, most QB do without their best WR).

Belichick is probably uniquely positioned to have the most educated guess on that question. Defensive minded HC who has had plenty of chances to scout Dalton for league games, including some big ones, and a good sense presumably of Stidham.

If Dalton is available at a decent show-me price this is probably the best yardstick we have had to date of Stidham. Or Belichick’s perception of Stidham at least.

I would be disappointed if the Patriots pursue Dalton. Not because I think he is a bad player. To the contrary I think he is a good player. But if the Patriots pursue him it would be hard not to view that at least in part as a Belichick referendum on Stidham. And I am hoping that Stidham has more upside than that in Belichick’s eyes. And looking forward to watching him play.
I don't think making a player compete for a job is a referendum on them. If Dalton wins the competition, yes, that's a referendum.

I don't think people appreciate how unusual it is for a player with as little invested in him as Stidham and as minimal an NFL track record to just be handed a starting job without having to compete for it.

I was able to find a few examples but none with quite so little NFL experience and quite so little investment.

They just had the same coach for 16 years. They've had two QBs start Week 1 for the last 16 years. That's, like, the definition of stable.

And again, Lewis certainly had his warts but you sound like Stephen A. Smith. There are plenty of places to read and numbers to look at without parroting lazy national narratives.
Rudy is spot on here. Stability is the least of the Bengals' problems. If you want to argue complacency is an issue, that's fair. But it's a diametrically-opposite complaint.
 

Rudy's Curve

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This is an obnoxious post. Just putting that out there.

In any case, Marvin Lewis kept his job through those years, and it was a running joke in the league that he had blackmail photos on ownership. At no point has Dalton played for a coaching staff considered even top half in the league. It's comical to argue the point that we don't know what Dalton might do moving to an elite coaching staff.
For a 48-game stretch from 2012-15, the Bengals went 36-11-1. Somehow they did it with incompetent coaches.

If you want to have a serious conversation with someone who actually follows the team, I'd be more than happy to. If you'd rather go all Stephen A., I'll continue to be obnoxious.
 

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Pay Dalton $8M or whatever (I truly have no idea) to come in and put his hands at 10-and-2 and drive the car in the slow lane for four months? What’s the point?

And honestly, what’s the point for Dalton? If you were him would you want to spend your whole career in Cincinnati then — when the Patriots roster is ripped down to the studs and there’s no tight end and their best target by far is 34-year-old Julian Edelman and their legendary line coach left — come to Foxboro? That’s like showing up for midnight in Times Square on January 2.

 

DJnVa

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That's why I much prefer Cam for this situation; he's basically had lousy receivers his whole career and managed to make some chicken salad now and again.
I would wager that Cam signs for many millions more than Dalton though.
 

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For a 48-game stretch from 2012-15, the Bengals went 36-11-1. Somehow they did it with incompetent coaches.

If you want to have a serious conversation with someone who actually follows the team, I'd be more than happy to. If you'd rather go all Stephen A., I'll continue to be obnoxious.
You're a Bengals fan? And a smug, obnoxious jerk? Wow, yeah, I definitely want to interact with you as much as possible.

The point, which you continue to miss, is that Dalton under an elite coaching staff at a minimal cost, is a better option to provide an alternative at QB than Brian Hoyer. You can spend lots of time swearing at me and telling me how amazing Marvin Lewis and his rotating OC's were, I'll be over here with you on ignore.
 

nighthob

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In any case, Marvin Lewis kept his job through those years, and it was a running joke in the league that he had blackmail photos on ownership. At no point has Dalton played for a coaching staff considered even top half in the league. It's comical to argue the point that we don't know what Dalton might do moving to an elite coaching staff.
Dalton was a JAG when he had a quality O-line in front of him and was playing with a WR on a HoF path (until the injuries mounted). That's basically the upside, but that wouldn't be an immediate upside given the limitations that they'll face next year (shortened training camp, etc.). If you're spending resources developing a future JAG, it makes a lot more sense to devote those resources to the younger player that might be more than a JAG than the aging one that won't be.
 

Captaincoop

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Pay Dalton $8M or whatever (I truly have no idea) to come in and put his hands at 10-and-2 and drive the car in the slow lane for four months? What’s the point?

And honestly, what’s the point for Dalton? If you were him would you want to spend your whole career in Cincinnati then — when the Patriots roster is ripped down to the studs and there’s no tight end and their best target by far is 34-year-old Julian Edelman and their legendary line coach left — come to Foxboro? That’s like showing up for midnight in Times Square on January 2.

At $8m? Not advocating that.

I'm working on the assumption that he's available for truly short money. If someone is paying him $8m, God bless them both.
 

Rudy's Curve

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You're a Bengals fan? And a smug, obnoxious jerk? Wow, yeah, I definitely want to interact with you as much as possible.

The point, which you continue to miss, is that Dalton under an elite coaching staff at a minimal cost, is a better option to provide an alternative at QB than Brian Hoyer. You can spend lots of time swearing at me and telling me how amazing Marvin Lewis and his rotating OC's were, I'll be over here with you on ignore.
I never addressed Dalton vs. Hoyer. I was simply responding to the moronic point that the multiple OCs who became HCs and the excellent talent around him held Dalton back. It's quite the hill to die on.
 

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Dalton will be connected to the Patriots, but I've got the Jaguars circled, too. Their QB situation is thin with Minshew, Josh Dobbs and Jake Luton. And their OC is Jay Gruden, who was Dalton's OC for his first three NFL seasons, when Bengals made playoffs all three times
 

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Dalton will be connected to the Patriots, but I've got the Jaguars circled, too. Their QB situation is thin with Minshew, Josh Dobbs and Jake Luton. And their OC is Jay Gruden, who was Dalton's OC for his first three NFL seasons, when Bengals made playoffs all three times
everyone has the Jaguars circled Ben, this isn't a unique take
 

DJnVa

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Pay Dalton $8M or whatever (I truly have no idea) to come in and put his hands at 10-and-2 and drive the car in the slow lane for four months? What’s the point?
Well, I think the thought is no one at all wants to pay him that much. I'm simply asking about bringing him in if he's signing for $1M.
 

DJnVa

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Dalton will be connected to the Patriots, but I've got the Jaguars circled, too. Their QB situation is thin with Minshew, Josh Dobbs and Jake Luton. And their OC is Jay Gruden, who was Dalton's OC for his first three NFL seasons, when Bengals made playoffs all three times
Jags might be worst team in the league. There's no way they would want Dalton to do anything to take them out of the Lawrence sweepstakes.
 

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At $8m? Not advocating that.

I'm working on the assumption that he's available for truly short money. If someone is paying him $8m, God bless them both.
I don't know if it's $8 million or $4 million but I seriously doubt he's going to a situation in which he doesn't at least (a) get paid, or (b) have some assurance that he's a substantial heavyweight to compete for the starting job with the inside track.

If you're his agent why would you let him do other? Right after the draft where everything is potential and nobody is hurt is the worst time to be one of the top 32 QBs in the world but without a job. The market will be different after the season starts.

This is why I said that if the Patriots really do pursue Dalton it would be tough not to view it as a Belichick view of Stidham. If he comes in at short money to be an upgrade of the Hoyer role that would be different. I just don't imagine that's possible.
 
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I'm on the side of finding out what Stidham has this season instead of kicking the tires on a past-his-prime starter who might be better, but whose upside is limited. That being said, I think I would prefer Dalton over Cam. Cam has a better track record and offers more value if he stays healthy (big IF) but I am concerned about Newton from a character perspective. Maybe that is misplaced but the guy has said some dumb things over the years and doesn't seem like the best teammate, I'd be concerned he could be a disruptive force if things go south for him in New England.
 

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I'm so turned off of the Dalton idea I'd probably not watch the team if he were signed. It's not that he's terrible. But he's not good, and he's definitely not enough of an improvement over Stidham to be worth any real amount of money. What does Dalton do for this team, in a best case scenario? Gets us far enough to get eliminated in the Wild Card Round?

I really can't see a single good thing of signing Dalton at all.

At least Stidham is cheap and lets you see if there is anything there. And if he sucks, oh well, draft another one.
 

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I'm so turned off of the Dalton idea I'd probably not watch the team if he were signed. It's not that he's terrible. But he's not good, and he's definitely not enough of an improvement over Stidham to be worth any real amount of money. What does Dalton do for this team, in a best case scenario? Gets us far enough to get eliminated in the Wild Card Round?

I really can't see a single good thing of signing Dalton at all.

At least Stidham is cheap and lets you see if there is anything there. And if he sucks, oh well, draft another one.
Yeah. I’ll watch regardless but the thought of Dalton as QB is so unappetizing. With Stidham, you can dream on youth. With Cam, you can dream on him regaining his past form. With Dalton? Nothing to get excited about.
 

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If we want to play the supporting cast game with Brady and Dalton, you should use Brandon Lafell, he played 2 years in NWE with Brady, then went to CIN and played 2 years with Dalton. He put up basically the same lines in both places.

Dalton is a decent QB, he's not a particularly good one, but since Green got injured 2 years ago he's also had arguably the worst offense in the NFL around him. I mean... look at those WR corps... Alex Erickson as the #2? Their line has been garbage for years.
 

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I don't know if it's $8 million or $4 million but I seriously doubt he's going to a situation in which he doesn't at least (a) get paid, or (b) have some assurance that he's a substantial heavyweight to compete for the starting job with the inside track.

If you're his agent why would you let him do other? Right after the draft where everything is potential and nobody is hurt is the worst time to be one of the top 32 QBs in the world but without a job. The market will be different after the season starts.

This is why I said that if the Patriots really do pursue Dalton it would be tough not to view it as a Belichick view of Stidham. If he comes in at short money to be an upgrade of the Hoyer role that would be different. I just don't imagine that's possible.
Would everyone agree he's one of the top 32 quarterbacks?

My underlying assumption is that he's on the junk pile right now, no other team would make him their primary option at QB1, and he'd come cheap to NE as it represents one of his best shots at winning a job in the NFL. If any of that is wrong, screw it, he isn't worth it.
 

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Aug 1, 2006
16,571
There's a pretty good chance he would be. Andy Dalton has a long track record of being between decent and good as an NFL starter. Stidham wasn't particularly good in college, if he's Andy Dalton it's a huge win, his ceiling may be higher now than Dalton given the injuries to Dalton, but his floor is a lot, lot lower