2020 Pats: Roster & Beyond (non-QB edition)

tims4wins

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Sad day, right decision. A huge thank you to Develin for his Pats career. He was great when healthy. A true team player and consummate professional.
 

Super Nomario

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Anyone who starts for two straight years on any NFL team is a legitimate NFL starter. Is he better than Van Noy? Obviously not. But he's part of the group that will replace Van Noy and Collins.

Hightower, Copeland, Bentley, Uche, Jennings

I'm ok with that group for now. I get that you're way more pessimistic than I am.
Copeland only started three games in 2019. He was 19th on his team in snaps. I don't call that a starter. He did start in 2018, when they didn't have better options.

As for the group, there's really two different roles here. Hightower and Bentley are classic ILB types, and in sub packages (70+% of the time) you only need one of those guys, so they're fine, although they definitely lost depth there because KVN and Collins could play off-ball as well as on the line. But KVN and Collins also did a ton of edge rushing last year. I'd expect a bigger role for Chase Winovich this year; his playing time (as with a lot of youngsters) fluctuated a lot last year. He looked good as a rookie. Simon is more of an early-down edge. Copeland can do some of that stuff but he's basically JAG. I'm not sure how Uche and Jennings fit in as rookies; Uche in particular is small for what they like on the edge so I'm not sure if he does more off-ball stuff. Rivers, Wise, and Calhoun are still here; Wise played more down lineman last year but struggled; Rivers and Calhoun have basically done zilch for their careers. So I'm fine with the ILBs but there are a lot of questions with the OLBs, and it's reasonable to expect a serious downgrade in the pass rush department from last year.
 

nighthob

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I'm not criticizing the team's draft; it's unlikely the team's draftees will have a significant impact on the upcoming season anyway. The team's defense desperately needed to get younger via organic growth. The difference between a WR available in the 6th or 7th round and one available via UDFA is probably not that great.
Also with the three dozen or so WRs drafted this year there should be some interesting vets cut post-6/1 that NE can bring in to start upgrading their horrific group.
 

BigSoxFan

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Also with the three dozen or so WRs drafted this year there should be some interesting vets cut post-6/1 that NE can bring in to start upgrading their horrific group.
Would any of those really be an improvement over Edelman, Harry, Sanu, and Lee (if healthy)? Feel like maybe you can improve Lee a little bit but that’s it. They really need a reliable speed guy. Maybe we can trade a 2037 6th to BOB for Cooks.
 

Super Nomario

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Would any of those really be an improvement over Edelman, Harry, Sanu, and Lee (if healthy)? Feel like maybe you can improve Lee a little bit but that’s it. They really need a reliable speed guy. Maybe we can trade a 2037 6th to BOB for Cooks.
Damiere Byrd got actual money FWIW. Like $600 K guaranteed. He's fast. I'm not sure he can do much else and his career high in yardage is like 350, but I think he's the guy they have earmarked for this role.
 

BigSoxFan

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Damiere Byrd got actual money FWIW. Like $600 K guaranteed. He's fast. I'm not sure he can do much else and his career high in yardage is like 350, but I think he's the guy they have earmarked for this role.
You’re probably right but Byrd is a 27 year-old guy with almost no career production. Not holding out hope on him giving us more than what Dorsett gave, which just isn’t enough, IMO. I’d feel much better about this group if we could replace Sanu with a proven deep threat. Just feel like Harry/Sanu don’t complement each other that well. We all know what Jules can do.
 

BaseballJones

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Copeland only started three games in 2019. He was 19th on his team in snaps. I don't call that a starter. He did start in 2018, when they didn't have better options.

As for the group, there's really two different roles here. Hightower and Bentley are classic ILB types, and in sub packages (70+% of the time) you only need one of those guys, so they're fine, although they definitely lost depth there because KVN and Collins could play off-ball as well as on the line. But KVN and Collins also did a ton of edge rushing last year. I'd expect a bigger role for Chase Winovich this year; his playing time (as with a lot of youngsters) fluctuated a lot last year. He looked good as a rookie. Simon is more of an early-down edge. Copeland can do some of that stuff but he's basically JAG. I'm not sure how Uche and Jennings fit in as rookies; Uche in particular is small for what they like on the edge so I'm not sure if he does more off-ball stuff. Rivers, Wise, and Calhoun are still here; Wise played more down lineman last year but struggled; Rivers and Calhoun have basically done zilch for their careers. So I'm fine with the ILBs but there are a lot of questions with the OLBs, and it's reasonable to expect a serious downgrade in the pass rush department from last year.
There might be a downgrade in the pass rush. But maybe not. Winovich should be improved. Uche should be able to get to the QB (it's one reason they got him). Van Noy and Collins accounted for 13.5 sacks. Winovich should get a few more than he did last year. Uche should get a few. So should Jennings. I suspect the change from Van Noy and Collins to Uche and Jennings (with added time for Winovich) should cost them between 3-5 sacks over the course of a season. Who knows how many pressures.

So I've said I think the D drops from #1 in the NFL down to merely top 5-7. Which is still, uh, really good.
 

nighthob

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Would any of those really be an improvement over Edelman, Harry, Sanu, and Lee (if healthy)? Feel like maybe you can improve Lee a little bit but that’s it. They really need a reliable speed guy. Maybe we can trade a 2037 6th to BOB for Cooks.
Lee is so injury prone that I’m not sure he could survive a flag football league Season at this point, and Byrd is a fast guy that doesn’t produce. And that’s it for non-slot guys. I’m not sure how it’s possible to downgrade that group.
 

BigSoxFan

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Lee is so injury prone that I’m not sure he could survive a flag football league Season at this point, and Byrd is a fast guy that doesn’t produce. And that’s it for non-slot guys. I’m not sure how it’s possible to downgrade that group.
Not saying it’s a downgrade, just saying that I don’t see any future cuts being a material upgrade. And we’re talking about WR4 most likely. Sanu is the guy I want to upgrade (or find a comparable guy with vertical skill set). I think Edelman and Harry are pretty locked in at 1/2.
 

BaseballJones

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Lee is so injury prone that I’m not sure he could survive a flag football league Season at this point, and Byrd is a fast guy that doesn’t produce. And that’s it for non-slot guys. I’m not sure how it’s possible to downgrade that group.
Um...if Edelman gets hurt? Let's not forget that he's still....great. Even seriously banged up last year he still produced a 100 rec, 1,117 yard, 6 TD season.

His 100 rec ranked 5th in the NFL.
His 1,117 yards ranked 18th in the NFL.
His 54 first downs gained ranked 12th in the NFL.

He's a true #1 receiver. Just because he plays mainly slot doesn't mean he isn't a #1 receiver. This receiving corps without him would be a MASSIVE downgrade.
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

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There might be a downgrade in the pass rush. But maybe not. Winovich should be improved. Uche should be able to get to the QB (it's one reason they got him). Van Noy and Collins accounted for 13.5 sacks. Winovich should get a few more than he did last year. Uche should get a few. So should Jennings. I suspect the change from Van Noy and Collins to Uche and Jennings (with added time for Winovich) should cost them between 3-5 sacks over the course of a season. Who knows how many pressures.

So I've said I think the D drops from #1 in the NFL down to merely top 5-7. Which is still, uh, really good.
@Clears Cleaver just shared the PFF Draft recap in another thread - here's their blurb about Uche:

Josh Uche and the New England Patriots are one of the perfect prospect-team marriages we saw. He fits the mold of the Patriots’ scheme. As PFF’s Ben Linsey said, “Getting those players who can win as pass rushers lined up on the edge, as well as off-ball linebackers who can fill gaps against the run and do what they’re asked to in coverage, has been at the backbone of New England’s defense (one of the best groups in the NFL) for years.” Uche put up an elite 91.7 pass-rush grade over the past two years and has more than enough athleticism to drop into coverage and hold his own.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2020-nfl-draft-grades-for-all-32-teams?utm_source=PFF+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8565cc2b04-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_04_24_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ae3f4210bf-8565cc2b04-216886525
 

Saints Rest

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Just a reminder for those recalling the Patriots teams from the early 2000's. Below is where the Pats scoring offense ranked during the 2000-04 era:

2000: 25th in NFL
2001: 6th
2002: 10th
2003: 12th
2004: 4th

The offense during the winning years was at least better than league average, if not top 10. So, yes, like those teams, this version of the Patriots will be relying a lot more on their defense. However, I don't see a path to a winning season with the offense they have now. If all lines up well (Stidham has an unexpected breakout year, WR corps stays healthy while seeing growth from Harry and Myers, running game returns to form with OL changes and new tight ends), perhaps they get into the middle of the pack. If there is a season, I will be excited to watch just to see what happens; I mean, the 2001 Pats were a big unknown as well, as was the 2003 team to some extent. But if I were putting bets down, I'm betting the under.

I'm not criticizing the team's draft; it's unlikely the team's draftees will have a significant impact on the upcoming season anyway. The team's defense desperately needed to get younger via organic growth. The difference between a WR available in the 6th or 7th round and one available via UDFA is probably not that great. The rebuild will probably take multiple seasons, and picking a WR or QB in the 2nd round was probably not going to change that timeline very much given the obvious holes on defense.
I've been thinking a lot about that 2001 team lately, as it was the last time that they didn't go into the season with the expectation that TB12 would be the QB. And when you look at this roster against what that roster was, it's a lot harder to be critical here.
Position: 2001; 2020 (presumptive)
  • QB: Bledsoe/Brady; Stidham. Remember that at the time, Brady was even lesser known than Stidham.
  • RB: Smith, Faulk, Edwards, Redmond; Michel, White, Johnson, Burkhead, Harris. Smith was pretty good that year, but I'd day this is close to even.
  • TE: Rutledge, Wiggins; LaCosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene. At least with the new guys, there's hope for better, but Rutledge/Wiggins were not exactly 2011-era Gronk/Hernandez.
  • WR: Brown, Patten, Glenn, Johnson; Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers. Brown/Edelman are pretty close to even. But I think this year's 2-4 are likely to be more productive than 2001's (Glenn and Johnson were 28 catches for 315 yds combined).
  • OLine: Light, Compton, Woody, Andruzzi, Randall; Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon. Slight edge to 2020 in my opinion.
And I think this year's D is likely to be better than 2001's.

Bottom line is that I don't see this team as a top 2 seed, but I think competing for the division is possible if Stidham can come close to 2001 Bledsoe/Brady: 306/482, 3089, 21/15.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I've been thinking a lot about that 2001 team lately, as it was the last time that they didn't go into the season with the expectation that TB12 would be the QB. And when you look at this roster against what that roster was, it's a lot harder to be critical here.
Position: 2001; 2020 (presumptive)
  • QB: Bledsoe/Brady; Stidham. Remember that at the time, Brady was even lesser known than Stidham.
  • RB: Smith, Faulk, Edwards, Redmond; Michel, White, Johnson, Burkhead, Harris. Smith was pretty good that year, but I'd day this is close to even.
  • TE: Rutledge, Wiggins; LaCosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene. At least with the new guys, there's hope for better, but Rutledge/Wiggins were not exactly 2011-era Gronk/Hernandez.
  • WR: Brown, Patten, Glenn, Johnson; Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers. Brown/Edelman are pretty close to even. But I think this year's 2-4 are likely to be more productive than 2001's (Glenn and Johnson were 28 catches for 315 yds combined).
  • OLine: Light, Compton, Woody, Andruzzi, Randall; Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon. Slight edge to 2020 in my opinion.
And I think this year's D is likely to be better than 2001's.

Bottom line is that I don't see this team as a top 2 seed, but I think competing for the division is possible if Stidham can come close to 2001 Bledsoe/Brady: 306/482, 3089, 21/15.
Just remember that that passing line by Brady was actually pretty good for that time in the NFL. It wouldn't be very good in today's game.
 

lexrageorge

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I think the 2001 line is being undersold a bit. Light was one of the team's best left tackles in franchise history. Andruzzi was an interior presence for several years, and Woody had a good stint as well.
 

nighthob

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Not saying it’s a downgrade, just saying that I don’t see any future cuts being a material upgrade. And we’re talking about WR4 most likely. Sanu is the guy I want to upgrade (or find a comparable guy with vertical skill set). I think Edelman and Harry are pretty locked in at 1/2.
It's just that all of their best receivers play the same spot, and none of them are really assets on the outside. They're just going to require perfect execution to get any real offensive push this year, and they're going to be playing a virtual rookie with limited prep time as the centerpiece of the offense. It's going to suck like an aging ex porn star.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's just that all of their best receivers play the same spot, and none of them are really assets on the outside. They're just going to require perfect execution to get any real offensive push this year, and they're going to be playing a virtual rookie with limited prep time as the centerpiece of the offense. It's going to suck like an aging ex porn star.
100% agree. Edelman, Harry, and Sanu are all good NFL WRs (with Edelman being better than good). But problem is they all work best out of the slot. If you replaced Sanu with a legit deep threat, you’d give Jules and Harry more room to operate in the middle and they both are very good after the catch. Not his fault but I see Sanu as the real problem with this WR roster construction. Josh will have his work cut out for him.
 

rodderick

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100% agree. Edelman, Harry, and Sanu are all good NFL WRs (with Edelman being better than good). But problem is they all work best out of the slot. If you replaced Sanu with a legit deep threat, you’d give Jules and Harry more room to operate in the middle and they both are very good after the catch. Not his fault but I see Sanu as the real problem with this WR roster construction. Josh will have his work cut out for him.
Can we say Harry is a good NFL WR already?
 

BigSoxFan

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Can we say Harry is a good NFL WR already?
There is still obviously considerable projection there but I think he’ll get there, at least as a WR3. And if you’re bearish on Harry, then that further underscores my larger point that this WR group is insufficient.
 

Saints Rest

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100% agree. Edelman, Harry, and Sanu are all good NFL WRs (with Edelman being better than good). But problem is they all work best out of the slot. If you replaced Sanu with a legit deep threat, you’d give Jules and Harry more room to operate in the middle and they both are very good after the catch. Not his fault but I see Sanu as the real problem with this WR roster construction. Josh will have his work cut out for him.
IIRC, Sanu is a huge candidate to be cut due to no dead money and about $6M in savings.
 

BigSoxFan

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IIRC, Sanu is a huge candidate to be cut due to no dead money and about $6M in savings.
Yup. Spotrac says $6.5M in savings if you cut Sanu. Problem is that you have to be pretty sure about Harry (I am but I have little basis for this) or have someone else in mind via trade/cut before cutting Sanu. Hard to know what the staff thinks of Sanu at this point. Clearly, they liked him enough to give up the #55 pick. I tend to believe that his age 31 season would look similar to those ATL seasons with good health. A nice secondary option but nothing more and not the best complement to Edelman and Harry.
 

Cellar-Door

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IIRC, Sanu is a huge candidate to be cut due to no dead money and about $6M in savings.
I think he's a logical cut if you have a good place to spend the cap, but I don't know that he's in that much danger unless Lee looks amazing. He's one of the only reliable WRs they have, and through his career he's been worth what he's set to make.
 

Euclis20

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Sanu has spent his entire career playing across from pro bowl WRs who can stretch the field(AJ Green, then Julio Jones). The Pats don't have anyone like that on the roster to create space for him, plus he's coming off an injury. I'm not bullish on his future at all, nor am I on Edelman who is another year older, always an injury risk, and without his BFF. Anyone thinking that the WR group can't be worse than last year isn't thinking this through. The TE group may have hit bottom last year, but WR can definitely get worse.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sanu has spent his entire career playing across from pro bowl WRs who can stretch the field(AJ Green, then Julio Jones). The Pats don't have anyone like that on the roster to create space for him, plus he's coming off an injury. I'm not bullish on his future at all, nor am I on Edelman who is another year older, always an injury risk, and without his BFF. Anyone thinking that the WR group can't be worse than last year isn't thinking this through. The TE group may have hit bottom last year, but WR can definitely get worse.
Fair points but wasn’t Sanu’s injury just a high ankle sprain? He should be 100% good to go whenever the next season starts and has probably been 100% for quite some time already. Still, though, he’s never had great speed and is now 31 and, as has been mentioned, can be cut loose at moment’s notice.

I agree on the larger point. Edelman turns 34, plays like a maniac, and just lost his longtime QB. His decline is almost surely coming soon. On the bright side, he doesn’t have the same wear and tear as most 34 year-olds since he didn’t really get going until age 27 season and also lost a year a couple years ago. There is precedence for great years at age 34 but you’re talking HOF type talent like Rice and Carter. Edelman also has a dead cap hit of only $2.7M after this year so wouldn’t surprise me to see this be his last go round.

I like Harry’s potential but this is a big year for him. He needs to show considerable growth for us to bank on him for the long term.

The rest of this group (Lee, Byrd, Meyers, Gunner, UDFAs) is just a giant collection of meh to me. We saw how important Edelman was to the offense WITH Brady. He’ll be even more important with Stidham. If he goes down...yikes.

There’s a chance for this group to be decent but I think there’s a much better chance they’re much worse than that. I also see very little upside here.
 

FL4WL3SS

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I don't expect Stidham to be great this year. Heck, let's be honest...none of us even know if there's going to be a season this year. But if there is, I don't expect him to be great or maybe even good. But I do expect him to show enough that in a couple of years he can be a very good NFL starter. I think he has the tools for that. In the meanwhile, does he have enough to keep the Patriots afloat? Very difficult schedule. Very difficult. And that will be problematic. I think the defense will be fine. Probably not #1 in the NFL, but top 5-7 I would expect. Special teams are excellent. Offensive line should be very good. RBs are fine. I love the JJ Taylor signing and hope that he can actually contribute. TEs should be much improved. That alone will help immensely. They'll have functioning play from the FB position. And though I get why others here are much more pessimistic than I am, I think the WR corps should be better than last year. Improved health. Additions to the roster. If Jeff Thomas can be reeled in, he brings electric talent to the position that people here have been longing for.

So can Stidham be good enough to manage this team to a winning record against that schedule? Don't know, but I'm pretty excited to find out.
Why does it have to be binary good vs bad? The way I see it, Belichick is the best there ever has been at putting guys in the best position to succeed. Stidham will have good games and bad games, but I'd put money on him growing significantly throughout the year.

One thing I'm sure of is that he'll be better in the second half of the year, especially as the coaching staff learns what works and what doesn't. It's the blueprint they've been working with for 20 years. Learn all you can in the first half and then apply in the second. They'll be a playoff team.
 

Super Nomario

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I've been thinking a lot about that 2001 team lately, as it was the last time that they didn't go into the season with the expectation that TB12 would be the QB. And when you look at this roster against what that roster was, it's a lot harder to be critical here.
Position: 2001; 2020 (presumptive)
  • QB: Bledsoe/Brady; Stidham. Remember that at the time, Brady was even lesser known than Stidham.
  • RB: Smith, Faulk, Edwards, Redmond; Michel, White, Johnson, Burkhead, Harris. Smith was pretty good that year, but I'd day this is close to even.
  • TE: Rutledge, Wiggins; LaCosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene. At least with the new guys, there's hope for better, but Rutledge/Wiggins were not exactly 2011-era Gronk/Hernandez.
  • WR: Brown, Patten, Glenn, Johnson; Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers. Brown/Edelman are pretty close to even. But I think this year's 2-4 are likely to be more productive than 2001's (Glenn and Johnson were 28 catches for 315 yds combined).
  • OLine: Light, Compton, Woody, Andruzzi, Randall; Wynn, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Cannon. Slight edge to 2020 in my opinion.
And I think this year's D is likely to be better than 2001's.

Bottom line is that I don't see this team as a top 2 seed, but I think competing for the division is possible if Stidham can come close to 2001 Bledsoe/Brady: 306/482, 3089, 21/15.
We probably shouldn't compare any team to the 2001 team, because that team was so far ahead of schedule even by Belichick's own admission. They got outgained by 500 yards, finished in the bottom half of the league in total offense and total defense, but somehow finished 6th in points scored and points allowed. They were good in turnover differential but not great (+7). There's a perception the offense was carried by the run game, but they averaged 3.8 yards per carry (24th in the NFL).

Old Tom Brady has been so amazing that I think young Tom Brady has been underrated. The 2000 Patriots finished 25th in points scored, 23rd in NY/A. They started 2001 even worse, scoring just 20 points in their first two games. Then Brady took over and brought the offense to respectable. And he didn't have a lot of help; Terry Glenn, who led the team in receiving yards in 2000, played just four games in 2001 (and still finished third on the team in receiving yards). Brady didn't put up the big numbers until he got some weapons, but he was already really good.
 

BaseballJones

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Why does it have to be binary good vs bad? The way I see it, Belichick is the best there ever has been at putting guys in the best position to succeed. Stidham will have good games and bad games, but I'd put money on him growing significantly throughout the year.

One thing I'm sure of is that he'll be better in the second half of the year, especially as the coaching staff learns what works and what doesn't. It's the blueprint they've been working with for 20 years. Learn all you can in the first half and then apply in the second. They'll be a playoff team.
I don't think an assessment that says, "I don't expect him to be great or maybe even good. But I do expect him to show enough that in a couple of years he can be a very good NFL starter" can qualify as binary.
 

EL Jeffe

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The cap crunch still interests me a lot. Thuney and his ~ $15mil are still here, and the same with Sanu and his $6.5mil. While they both can still be extended or traded (and Sanu could be cut), the Patriots may be looking more at the nickel and dime approach to get the space they need to sign their picks and operate in 2020. Assuming they don't want to push pain into 2021 (and there's no reason to) with Hightower or Gilmore, these guys seem like they could be in trouble:

Jason McCourty: $3.25mil savings (Joejuan Williams time?)
Rex Burkhead: $2.9mil savings (Damien Harris time?)
Deatrich Wise: $2.1mil savings (Tashawn Bowser? Nick Coe? Nick Thurman? Nick Offerman?)
Jermaine Eluemunor: $2.1mil savings (Froholdt? Onwenu?)
Justin Bethel: $2mil savings (Cody Davis? Jon Jones is an excellent gunner...IIRC he was dealing with a hamstring when they signed Bethel)
Terrence Brooks: $1.7mil savings (Adrian Phillips? Dugger? Brandon King?)
LaCosse: $1.3 savings (Asiasi/Keene/Izzo trio?)

Caveat to the cap savings numbers: they don't account for the Top 51 rule, so you'd have to subtract an additional ~ $675k from each savings figure (that $675k number changes over time based on roster changes; I think their Top 51 cutoff figure is now $675k, when it was $750k earlier this offseason). So for instance, Eluemunor would be replaced on the Top 51 list by a $675K contract that currently isn't counting against the cap. So it would be $2mil in gross savings, but then a $675k contract added back to the cap (so a $1.4mil net savings to move on from Eluemunor).

McCourty and Burkead would be mild surprises for me as they still provide a lot of four down value and veteran leadership. But...if BB is looking for more of a rebuild and less of a retooling, maybe he goes that direction.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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From that list, I could see Burkhead, Wise, Eluemunor, Brooks, and LaCosse being casualties. They have replacements for all of them. I want them to keep Bethel and I think JMac is still a very good player.
 

Super Nomario

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The cap crunch still interests me a lot. Thuney and his ~ $15mil are still here, and the same with Sanu and his $6.5mil. While they both can still be extended or traded (and Sanu could be cut), the Patriots may be looking more at the nickel and dime approach to get the space they need to sign their picks and operate in 2020. Assuming they don't want to push pain into 2021 (and there's no reason to) with Hightower or Gilmore, these guys seem like they could be in trouble:
I think the answer is Thuney can't be here on that tag. The big date to watch here is July 15th; if they can't extend him by then, they can't extend him at all. I can't imagine they'll let him play out the year on that big number and then walk in FA. So I'd expect a trade or an extension (which would probably halve his 2020 hit) by then. (h/t to Miguel / Patscap on this one)

Jason McCourty: $3.25mil savings (Joejuan Williams time?)
Rex Burkhead: $2.9mil savings (Damien Harris time?)
Deatrich Wise: $2.1mil savings (Tashawn Bowser? Nick Coe? Nick Thurman? Nick Offerman?)
Jermaine Eluemunor: $2.1mil savings (Froholdt? Onwenu?)
Justin Bethel: $2mil savings (Cody Davis? Jon Jones is an excellent gunner...IIRC he was dealing with a hamstring when they signed Bethel)
Terrence Brooks: $1.7mil savings (Adrian Phillips? Dugger? Brandon King?)
LaCosse: $1.3 savings (Asiasi/Keene/Izzo trio?)
The only ones of these I see as likely are Wise and Eluemunor. Wise was kind of miscast in last year's defense, a 4-3 DE trying to find a role in a 3-4. Based on the draft I think we're going to see a similar defense, so he doesn't add a lot of value. Eluemunor has no guaranteed money, though I think he'll get a chance to compete with Cunningham and Herron for a fourth tackle spot; they don't have an obvious fourth tackle.

All these other guys hurt depth quite a bit. JMac is a starter, more or less. LaCosse probably is, too. Burkhead is White's backup (Harris doesn't really have the same skill set). Bethel is a key STer. Brooks is DMac's backup with Harmon gone (Phillips doesn't really have the same skill set). You could see them make these moves in the preseason if the rookies look like they're ahead of schedule, but it would be a gamble before then and they need to free up some money in the next few weeks just to sign the draft class.
 

Cellar-Door

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The cap crunch still interests me a lot. Thuney and his ~ $15mil are still here, and the same with Sanu and his $6.5mil. While they both can still be extended or traded (and Sanu could be cut), the Patriots may be looking more at the nickel and dime approach to get the space they need to sign their picks and operate in 2020. Assuming they don't want to push pain into 2021 (and there's no reason to) with Hightower or Gilmore, these guys seem like they could be in trouble:

Jason McCourty: $3.25mil savings (Joejuan Williams time?)
Rex Burkhead: $2.9mil savings (Damien Harris time?)
Deatrich Wise: $2.1mil savings (Tashawn Bowser? Nick Coe? Nick Thurman? Nick Offerman?)
Jermaine Eluemunor: $2.1mil savings (Froholdt? Onwenu?)
Justin Bethel: $2mil savings (Cody Davis? Jon Jones is an excellent gunner...IIRC he was dealing with a hamstring when they signed Bethel)
Terrence Brooks: $1.7mil savings (Adrian Phillips? Dugger? Brandon King?)
LaCosse: $1.3 savings (Asiasi/Keene/Izzo trio?)

Caveat to the cap savings numbers: they don't account for the Top 51 rule, so you'd have to subtract an additional ~ $675k from each savings figure (that $675k number changes over time based on roster changes; I think their Top 51 cutoff figure is now $675k, when it was $750k earlier this offseason). So for instance, Eluemunor would be replaced on the Top 51 list by a $675K contract that currently isn't counting against the cap. So it would be $2mil in gross savings, but then a $675k contract added back to the cap (so a $1.4mil net savings to move on from Eluemunor).

McCourty and Burkead would be mild surprises for me as they still provide a lot of four down value and veteran leadership. But...if BB is looking for more of a rebuild and less of a retooling, maybe he goes that direction.
Another one to add... a post June 1 trade of Edelman saves $7M.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I think the Patriots are ok right now under the cap. Even signing the rookies should be ok with what they have. Maybe they might need to make a little room but not more than a few hundred thousand.

Unless they want to sign free agents there is no reason for them to be hasty about making cap space right now. The rule of 51 should keep them ok until week 1. Thuney should be resolved one way or another by then or at least he better be and that is the biggest factor here. I don’t think they have any real June 1 cuts to save much even and actually I don’t even know the status of the two post-June 1 exceptions under the new CBA but either way they don’t need to rush anything until practice starts.

Assuming they are going to try to get their 53 out of the guys on the roster now, they will need at least about 3m to start the season. Figure 1.5m when the cap takes 52 and 53 into account. Another 1.5m for practice squad. And any money needed to replace PUP or IR players injured in practice before the games start. Then figure another $5m to get through the year.

So, they need about $8m at a minimum but not immediately. They may have been hoping for some clarity on the Antonio Brown grievance before week 1 but assuming arbitrations in person are off right now unless it can be done by video that may not happen.

Edit — to be clear even cap relief for AB doesn’t come off the cap until next year but if you know you have a $9m credit next year you can use it this year by doing a signing bonus conversion or some other trick that moves it.
 

EL Jeffe

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I think the answer is Thuney can't be here on that tag. The big date to watch here is July 15th; if they can't extend him by then, they can't extend him at all. I can't imagine they'll let him play out the year on that big number and then walk in FA. So I'd expect a trade or an extension (which would probably halve his 2020 hit) by then. (h/t to Miguel / Patscap on this one)


The only ones of these I see as likely are Wise and Eluemunor. Wise was kind of miscast in last year's defense, a 4-3 DE trying to find a role in a 3-4. Based on the draft I think we're going to see a similar defense, so he doesn't add a lot of value. Eluemunor has no guaranteed money, though I think he'll get a chance to compete with Cunningham and Herron for a fourth tackle spot; they don't have an obvious fourth tackle.

All these other guys hurt depth quite a bit. JMac is a starter, more or less. LaCosse probably is, too. Burkhead is White's backup (Harris doesn't really have the same skill set). Bethel is a key STer. Brooks is DMac's backup with Harmon gone (Phillips doesn't really have the same skill set). You could see them make these moves in the preseason if the rookies look like they're ahead of schedule, but it would be a gamble before then and they need to free up some money in the next few weeks just to sign the draft class.
I agree with a lot of this, but we don't know what will happen with Thuney. What if there isn't a trade market? Moving him before or during the draft would have made sense. Now you're trading him for a 2021 pick (which you could have gotten from a comp pick if you let him walk), or possibly trading him for a rostered player. We don't know that teams will be lining up to pay a G $15mil/year and give up an asset. All it takes is one, but it's possible there isn't a trade to be made. As far as extensions, now you're allocating a ton of cap space to a non-premium position in Thuney and Mason. Certainly NE asks a lot out of their Gs, but $23mil/year to your starting Gs? Not great.

According to Miguel, they currently don't have enough to sign their draft picks. They don't have to be signed until camp, so it isn't an emergency or anything, but they'll have to make some moves at some point. The Antonio Brown grievance mentioned upthread would solve a lot of problems, but that isn't expected to come down any time soon (and isn't a slam dunk in NE's favor, from what I've read).
 

Super Nomario

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I agree with a lot of this, but we don't know what will happen with Thuney. What if there isn't a trade market? Moving him before or during the draft would have made sense. Now you're trading him for a 2021 pick (which you could have gotten from a comp pick if you let him walk), or possibly trading him for a rostered player. We don't know that teams will be lining up to pay a G $15mil/year and give up an asset. All it takes is one, but it's possible there isn't a trade to be made. As far as extensions, now you're allocating a ton of cap space to a non-premium position in Thuney and Mason. Certainly NE asks a lot out of their Gs, but $23mil/year to your starting Gs? Not great.
I don't mind paying two guards, just because the Patriots don't have a lot of good young players worth extending. Two of them happen to be guards.

I'd like to think when they franchised Thuney that they had a sense of his contract demands and / or the trade market and a plan for working something out. But who knows. It is going to be tricky to find money elsewhere this year.
 

Cellar-Door

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Why would they trade the one receiver who Stidham can count on? That makes no sense.
Depends what you get for him doesn't it? The Patriots have generally been a too early before too late team when it comes to vets. Edelman is 34 and they are coming up on a roster re-set. if they can get value they like for him it wouldn't be at all out of character for Bellichick to trade him.
 

RedOctober3829

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Depends what you get for him doesn't it? The Patriots have generally been a too early before too late team when it comes to vets. Edelman is 34 and they are coming up on a roster re-set. if they can get value they like for him it wouldn't be at all out of character for Bellichick to trade him.
Edelman's value on the roster is much more than him in a trade. Edelman would not fetch more than a mid round pick at best.
 

BaseballJones

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Edelman's value on the roster is much more than him in a trade. Edelman would not fetch more than a mid round pick at best.
Yeah but if some here are right that these guys just fall off a cliff, if they could get a 3rd round pick for him, wouldn't that be in the team's best long-term interest?

On a similar note, just for fun....do you think Brady would prefer, for 2020, to have Godwin or Edelman? Both were great in 2019. Godwin is obviously a lot younger and probably better. But Brady has unwavering faith in Edelman, and probably wouldn't even need any mini camp or training camp to be perfectly in sync with him. But Godwin...different story.

Who do you think Brady would prefer to play with in 2020 of those two?
 

RedOctober3829

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Yeah but if some here are right that these guys just fall off a cliff, if they could get a 3rd round pick for him, wouldn't that be in the team's best long-term interest?

On a similar note, just for fun....do you think Brady would prefer, for 2020, to have Godwin or Edelman? Both were great in 2019. Godwin is obviously a lot younger and probably better. But Brady has unwavering faith in Edelman, and probably wouldn't even need any mini camp or training camp to be perfectly in sync with him. But Godwin...different story.

Who do you think Brady would prefer to play with in 2020 of those two?
No it wouldn't be in the team's best long-term interest. If they think Stidham has the chance to be their starter long-term, taking his best receiver away will stunt his growth. Right now, with Edelman their WR group is average at best. Take him away and you're looking at the worst group in football. They will be getting an extra 3rd rd comp pick for Brady as well.
 

5dice

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Burkhead is White's backup (Harris doesn't really have the same skill set).
Interested in what the plans are for Harris this year and also why you think he doesn't have a similar skill set to Burkhead (I always respect your takes).
Many of the non run-only RBs sit for a year on this team as we have documented. I hope Harris steps in after his "redshirt" year.

No RB anywhere piles up catches like White, but Harris more than respectably caught 22 passes as a senior and 52 total in his time at Alabama.
He also (while splitting with Jacobs) ran 150 times for 5.8 ypc. Isn't that the definition of a dual threat and exactly what Rex Burkhead does for the team (ability to carry or catch interchangeably)?

I really like Burkhead, but if this team is RB-heavy and White and Michel are healthy, isn't he a candidate to go at that salary?
Also, I don't see this role that Burkhead has filled as a backup for James White but rather someone that spells both White and Michel and doesn't give away pass or run like those two guys so frequently do which could bite them more with Stidham than 12.
 

Super Nomario

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Interested in what the plans are for Harris this year and also why you think he doesn't have a similar skill set to Burkhead (I always respect your takes).
Many of the non run-only RBs sit for a year on this team as we have documented. I hope Harris steps in after his "redshirt" year.

No RB anywhere piles up catches like White, but Harris more than respectably caught 22 passes as a senior and 52 total in his time at Alabama.
He also (while splitting with Jacobs) ran 150 times for 5.8 ypc. Isn't that the definition of a dual threat and exactly what Rex Burkhead does for the team (ability to carry or catch interchangeably)?

I really like Burkhead, but if this team is RB-heavy and White and Michel are healthy, isn't he a candidate to go at that salary?
Also, I don't see this role that Burkhead has filled as a backup for James White but rather someone that spells both White and Michel and doesn't give away pass or run like those two guys so frequently do which could bite them more with Stidham than 12.
My understanding is that Harris is more in the Sony mode than a Burkhead replacement. Maybe he turns out to be a better receiver than Sony. They are built very similar and their overall college numbers were pretty similar, though Sony got less receiving work as a senior. Harris might be a competent dumpoff option but he isn't really the kind of athlete you want to get the ball in space.
 

tims4wins

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Interested in what the plans are for Harris this year and also why you think he doesn't have a similar skill set to Burkhead (I always respect your takes).
Many of the non run-only RBs sit for a year on this team as we have documented. I hope Harris steps in after his "redshirt" year.

No RB anywhere piles up catches like White, but Harris more than respectably caught 22 passes as a senior and 52 total in his time at Alabama.
He also (while splitting with Jacobs) ran 150 times for 5.8 ypc. Isn't that the definition of a dual threat and exactly what Rex Burkhead does for the team (ability to carry or catch interchangeably)?

I really like Burkhead, but if this team is RB-heavy and White and Michel are healthy, isn't he a candidate to go at that salary?
Also, I don't see this role that Burkhead has filled as a backup for James White but rather someone that spells both White and Michel and doesn't give away pass or run like those two guys so frequently do which could bite them more with Stidham than 12.
Given their amount of respective playing time in college, Harris and White actually had pretty similar receiving stats. White had 73 catches / 643 carries (8.8 carries per catch), Harris had 52 catches / 477 carries (9.2 carries per catch). I don't know their snap counts, but it seems like Harris was pretty similar in college to White.

They are likely different players, as Harris is an inch taller and ~25 lbs heavier than White. But it's not like White was some pass catching phenom in college.
 

RedOctober3829

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I actually think Dalton Keene could be seeing some of the shorter routes that the RBs have been seeing as well. If you see his production at VT, he was good on dump-off's and short TE screens. His YAC ability is impressive.
 

Soxy

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I with @Super Nomario on this one.

If god forbid something should happen to James White, who is the pass catching back? Harris flashed a little bit of skill there in college, but so did Michel and he's been abysmal as a pass catcher thus far. Even if Michel shows dramatic improvement and Harris turns out to be a cromulent pass catching back, neither are likely to give you what Burkhead does in the passing game. When White was out last year in week 3 against the Jets, Burkhead played 74% of the offensive snaps, by far his highest total of the season (next highest was 46% in week one). He's a key cog on special teams as well. As Belichick always says, the more that a player can do, the more likely it is they're active on Sundays.

If Burkhead gets replaced, it's probably by either an UDFA or somebody who isn't currently on the roster. Which are both possibilities, but that likely wouldn't happen until they see how everyone looks in camp.
 

E5 Yaz

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Nevermind the idea of Brady wanting JE11 on the Bucs, the guy he'd really want is White, who's in the final year of his deal.

I think what folks are glossing over -- understandably, considering how we haven't had to think about it in 20 years -- is that ANY pass-catcher's value to the Patriots at the moment is unknown ... until we see how much on-field chemistry they have with Stidham (or whoever will be the starter).

What made Edelman and White so invaluable for Brady is that each knew where the other would be at all times, and where they would be if protection or scheme broke down. This year is uncharted territory; we don't know how they will work in tandem.

Those two in particular won't fall off the radar, but it's not a given that their production or value in an offense not quarterbacked by Brady will be at the same levels we're used to seeing.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Nevermind the idea of Brady wanting JE11 on the Bucs, the guy he'd really want is White, who's in the final year of his deal.

I think what folks are glossing over -- understandably, considering how we haven't had to think about it in 20 years -- is that ANY pass-catcher's value to the Patriots at the moment is unknown ... until we see how much on-field chemistry they have with Stidham (or whoever will be the starter).

What made Edelman and White so invaluable for Brady is that each knew where the other would be at all times, and where they would be if protection or scheme broke down. This year is uncharted territory; we don't know how they will work in tandem.

Those two in particular won't fall off the radar, but it's not a given that their production or value in an offense not quarterbacked by Brady will be at the same levels we're used to seeing.
These are really good points. A possible flip side is that maybe whomever starts at QB for the Patriots next year will find a way to make Sanu and Harry better players in a way that Brady couldn't. Brady's track record with the Reche Caldwells, Malcolm Mitchells, and Kembrel Thompkinses of the world suggests this is unlikely, but maybe 40 year old plus Brady was different from younger Brady in terms of his need for the synergy he found with certain players.

It's sad but also exciting to see how this all plays out. The truth is that if we're back playing football and things are relatively normal any time this year I don't care if you're the one under center, Yaz.
 

BigSoxFan

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The truth is that if we're back playing football and things are relatively normal any time this year I don't care if you're the one under center, Yaz.
I would care. Truth is Yaz has always been notoriously slow in going through his progressions.