2020 Pats: Roster & Beyond (non-QB edition)

Super Nomario

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Richard Sherman ran a 4.54 and is one of the all time greatest cover corners. Jackson is fast enough and is big enough. He has trouble with Diggs, but EVERYONE has trouble with Diggs. He gets open on everyone.

And of course, EVERYONE looks better paired with another #1 corner.
Sherman is great but he's more scheme-specific than Gilmore is. And he's a ton bigger than JCJ, so he can make up for his speed to some degree with being super-long.
 

SMU_Sox

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I like JC Jackson. But JC has struggled against some of his harder targets like Diggs and Kelce for example. Those are hard assignments, sure, but saying he could get to be like Gilmore who is bigger, longer, and more athletic than him? Don't see it. He's a fine CB2. He is a GREAT CB2. But he's still a CB2. Could he get better? Sure. Could he be who is he right now? More likely I think. I wouldn't mind if they invested in him but personally I'd rather have a high pick. YMMV.
 

BaseballJones

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Guys.... EVERYONE struggles against Diggs and Kelce and guys like that. Saying Jackson isn't a #1 because he has a hard time against those guys is silly. Everyone struggles against these guys.

He might never get to be as good as Gilmore, but that doesn't make him NOT a true #1 corner (or unable to get to that level). I mean, Gilmore has been over the last 3 years the very best corner in the world. There are lots of legit #1 corners not as good as Gilmore.

So if we're saying, "JC Jackson isn't, and won't be, as good as a multiple-time all-pro, the best at his position in all of football, and actually the best defensive player, regardless of position, in the NFL".... well...so what? Anyone who expects that is insane. And you don't have to be all that to be a legitimate #1 corner in the NFL.
 

SMU_Sox

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Going into week 17 the Patriots will likely finish not just with the worst passing offense in BB’s tenure here but also with the worst run defense he’s ever had. Right now they are 32nd in defensive rushing DVOA% at 6.7%.

In the last 10 years only 4 teams have finished with a rate worse than that:

1) 2011 CAR, 10.8%, 32nd.
2) 2013 CHI, 9.1%, 32nd.
3) 2012 IND, 6.9% nice, 32nd.
4) 2011 TB, 6.9% nice, 31st.
5) 2020 NE, 6.7%, 32nd.

Their front 7 is garbage. No one can set an edge and their DTs not named Guy or Davis get bullied. Their ILBs are either young and make mental mistakes or aren't athletic to possibly cover the huge gaping holes in front of them.

Another pleasant note to close the season out: This will also be BB's worst overall season by DVOA if things hold. Their total DVOA% is -9.6%, 24th overall. Their next worst finish is in 2000, -4.4%, 20th overall.
 

Harry Hooper

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Bill Belichick, talking about Sam Darnold, with high praise for Jets head coach Adam Gase. "I don't think you could have anybody better coaching him than where he's at," Belichick said.

Perhaps Reiss left out the diabolical laughter that followed as BB wants Gase and the Jets to stick together?
 

E5 Yaz

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Perhaps Reiss left out the diabolical laughter that followed as BB wants Gase and the Jets to stick together?
Gase to the Patriots in some capacity has been making the rounds. Kyed and Breer have also made the connection in recent weeks.
 

BaseballJones

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Thinking about the corners.....

Gilmore
- 30 years old
- 2020 stats: Opposing QBs are 28-49 (57.1%), 326 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 75.7 rating against him
- 2020 cap hit: $23.1m
- 2021 cap hit: $17.1m
- 2022: UFA

Jackson
- 25 years old
- 2020 stats: Opposing QBs are 45-77 (58.4%), 616 yds, 5 td, 8 int, 66.2 rating against him
- 2020 cap hit: $753k
- 2021: RFA

J McCourty
- 33 years old
- 2020 stats: Opposing QBs are 26-40 (65.0%), 390 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 136.5 rating against him
- 2020 cap hit: $5.5m
- 2021: UFA

J Jones
- 27 years old
- 2020 stats: Opposing QBs are 47-74 (63.5%), 476 yds, 4 td, 1 int, 94.2 rating against him
- 2020 cap hit: $5.9m
- 2021 cap hit: $7.1m
- 2022 cap hit: $8.2m
- 2023: UFA

Bryant
- 22 years old
- 2020 stats: Opposing QBs are 3-6 (50.0%), 25 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 21.5 rating against him
- 2020 cap hit: $574k
- 2021 cap hit: $780k
- 2022: ERFA

J Williams
- 23 years old
- 2020 stats: Opposing QBs are 4-8 (50.0%), 101 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 135.4 rating against him
- 2020 cap hit: $1.5m
- 2021 cap hit: $1.8m
- 2022 cap hit: $2.1m

Too small a sample to know if Bryant is any good, but I'd rather him have good numbers in a small sample size than bad numbers. I think he's shown enough that he can probably play at an NFL level. He's played 112 snaps (11.2% of the total possible number of defensive snaps). With Gilmore out I expect him to play a fair amount this week against the Jets (he played 22 defensive snaps against Buffalo). He's someone they're likely to keep for 2021.

Jason McCourty needs to go. He's been their worst corner the past couple of years, and this year he has been an unmitigated disaster. He's a UFA, and he's a big enough veteran name with enough success that maybe someone will pick him up and the Pats could land a late compensation pick for him. But he shouldn't be on the team in 2021. At 33, he's not going to get any better, and as an established vet, he probably won't take pennies to play in New England. Another team, desperate for help at corner, might take a chance on him. Now I don't know if not re-signing him will piss DMac off enough so that he leaves too, but you can't worry about that.

Williams will likely stick around. Another tiny sample size, but he's played more defensive snaps than Bryant has (14.2% on D, 45.3% on ST). He costs more than pennies, but nothing too crazy. He's still got potential, and his size makes him someone that BB is still interested in keeping around. Maybe as a big corner, maybe as a safety. You don't give up on this guy yet.

That leaves Gilmore, Jones, and Jackson. If I was NE, I'd explore the trade market for Gilmore. If they can only get a 4th rounder, forget it. Keep him for 2021, as his cap hit actually goes down from 2020 by a considerable margin. He's still really good, even if he's not the DPOY level he was last year. But I certainly wouldn't release him and I wouldn't necessarily give him an extension either. Keep him for 2021 and then let him go and recoup a nice comp pick (3rd rounder most likely) afterward.

Extend Jackson. I'm higher on him than some of you guys are, I admit. I think he's terrific. And he's young. And he won't be cheap, but he also won't break the bank as an RFA. Extend him now while he's still relatively inexpensive.

Jones sticks, but I'm not sold on whether he should. He's only...ok. Not terrible. His numbers this year aren't good, but they're not awful either. He's an average corner. Nothing wrong with having an average corner. You can't have all all-pros. But his cap hit is a little big for my liking, so I'd like to see what they can do with that. He's also done some work at safety so perhaps at some point he could transition there. Gilmore could too, by the way, because not only is he a great cover guy, he's a really good tackler. But that's another topic for another day.
 

Cellar-Door

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5dice

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So is he saying Gase is a good coach, or just that he thinks Darnold is such trash that nobody could coach him up anyway? Open to interpretation
Isn’t this just the 5 millionth time BB heaps generic praise on the week’s opponent half out of respect and half to never create bulletin board material?
Why read more into it?
 

djbayko

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Isn’t this just the 5 millionth time BB heaps generic praise on the week’s opponent half out of respect and half to never create bulletin board material?
Why read more into it?
That's exactly it. Every weekly opponent is Vince Lombardi coaching Peyton Manning with the '85 Bears defense.
 

E5 Yaz

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Mystic Merlin

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He’s correct on the core point, that they lack enough good players, though it’s bizarre the personnel guy thinks ‘real guys’ means All Pros and Pro Bowlers. Thuney is a ‘real guy’, gee you think?
 

Silverdude2167

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This quote is why I believe in BB...What would they have said of Kyle Van Noy before he came here or any # of good players that Bill has found on the scrap heap?

It is hard to have blue-chippers when you are picking at the end of the first round every year, but there is a lot of talent out there if you know how to use it and BB does. So now he will get to draft and spend on the "Kick your ass football players" while still finding the talent others have missed.
 

tims4wins

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Love this quote

“I know this: Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, Asante Samuel—they weren’t taking those guys off the field situationally. Those guys lined up and kicked the other guy’s ass.”

None of those guys played a snap in NE beyond 2008 save Vince
 

RedOctober3829

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Love this quote

“I know this: Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, Asante Samuel—they weren’t taking those guys off the field situationally. Those guys lined up and kicked the other guy’s ass.”

None of those guys played a snap in NE beyond 2008 save Vince
Anyone could’ve just said Mayo, Hightower, Chung, Van Noy, Ninkovich, McCourty, or others from the more current run and it’d be the same meaning. They don’t have enough good players.
 

lexrageorge

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The dumbest quote:

“To me, Brady masked their misses over the years,” said an AFC exec. “Just look at their draft history. You see picks missed on, but Brady, [Rob Gronkowski], [Julian] Edelman, they’d mask those issues. … [Belichick’s] still one of the best coaches—he’s such a good coach, and Josh [McDaniels] is such a good coordinator, and they have overcome lack of talent in the past. But now they don’t have the quarterback, and it’s tough to mask everything else.
So, shouldn't the Pats get credit for drafting Brady, Gronk, and Edelman?

Denver Broncos had a huge hole at QB with an aging and ineffective QB, but won a Super Bowl only because they drafted Von Miller. And it's a good thing the Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman, as those guys allowed them to ignore holes in other spots of their roster.
 

Silverdude2167

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The dumbest quote:


So, shouldn't the Pats get credit for drafting Brady, Gronk, and Edelman?

Denver Broncos had a huge hole at QB with an aging and ineffective QB, but won a Super Bowl only because they drafted Von Miller. And it's a good thing the Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman, as those guys allowed them to ignore holes in other spots of their roster.
It is all stupid, lets just forget about drafting Hightower, Collins, Flowers, Butler, Solider, Ghost, Logan Ryan, Chung, Andrews.

The idea that they missed on the draft more than anyone else is a lazy take. Brady made things easier, yes but there were some great players around him that are either still here or have left for massive contracts.
 

BaseballJones

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One guy's opinion (mine) only here....

Elite-level player (all-pro, pro-bowl caliber, even if they haven't officially been on a pro-bowl team)
- Gilmore
- Thuney
- Andrews
- Jackson
- D McCourty
- Bailey
- Slater

Good player (really good starter, would start for most teams or, in the case of White, be the primary receiving RB)
- White
- Guy
- Chung
- Hightower
- Cannon
- Mason
- Harris
- Owenwu
- Phillips

Decent player and/or has some upside
- Winovich
- Dugger
- Uche
- Burkhead
- Butler
- J Jones
- Bryant
- Johnson

Replacement-level player
- Folk
- Byrd
- Wise
- Moncrief
- Meyers
- Michel

Not so good but he plays...because
- Bentley
- Calhoun
- Cowart
- Newton
- Gunner
- Harry
- Izzo
- J McCourty

Who the heck knows
- Keene
- Asiasi
- JJ Williams
- Stidham

I don't know how typical this distribution is, and some of the guys in the top category are, I admit, debatable. Is Andrews really an "elite" guy (even as I broaden the category)? I dunno. I think he's really good but I dunno. But two of the "elite" guys are special team guys only. Three are questionable (Thuney, Andres, Jackson). That leaves basically two guys who are pretty solidly in that spot, in Gilmore and D McCourty. And DMac is on the decline, and Gilmore isn't as good as he was either. Of the guys I listed (and I'm probably forgetting some players...I know I'm forgetting some OL guys), I think Onwenu, Dugger, Harris, and Uche may have what it takes to get to the elite level, but I don't see a whole lot of other guys able to make it to that point.

So there really is a dearth of top-end talent. Now the Pats have usually had fewer top-end guys (even in the best years, they didn't put THAT many guys in the pro bowl), but have preferred to have a deeper team with a lot more "good" players. So this may just be their model. It's great to have a bunch of elite guys, but if you have more of them and everyone else is pretty bad, if the elite guys get hurt, your team is in deep trouble. One way the Pats managed to be uber successful in the midst of huge numbers of injuries is because they just had lots of pretty good players, so the drop-off from the injured guys to the replacements wasn't that huge. Other teams do it differently.

But yeah, not having Brady...well....it's true that he covered up a lot.
 

vadertime

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I'm not giving up on Harry yet. I still think his future is a #3, and he'll never live up to the first round pick status but I don't think he should be written off yet. Last year he was injured much of the year, and had Brady as his QB, who dispite his futre HOF status is widely accepted as not embracing rookie WR. This year he has the corpse of Cam throwing to him. Let's give me some reps with a competent QB willing to make an effort to involve him in the gameplan before we show him the door.
 

Jinhocho

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Anyone could’ve just said Mayo, Hightower, Chung, Van Noy, Ninkovich, McCourty, or others from the more current run and it’d be the same meaning. They don’t have enough good players.
Well I am sure when they put the roster together this year they were counting on having Chung, Hightower, and McCourty on the field and not just McCourty. That would have made a huge difference.
 

jsinger121

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Well I am sure when they put the roster together this year they were counting on having Chung, Hightower, and McCourty on the field and not just McCourty. That would have made a huge difference.
I don’t think the results would have changed that much with Chung and Hightower in there. Both of them are probably on the back 9.This team has talent closer to a 4 win roster in my opinion. BB coached them up to at least 6 wins if not 7 possibly after Sunday. Take BB away from this team and we are picking in the top 5 this season. I still have more faith in BB the coach than BB the GM who has been seriously lacking the past few years with poor drafts.
 
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54thMA

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One point from that article I thought was interesting is how the theory is Belichick drafts year to year based on the schedule/what teams he is facing/personnel he needs vs those teams as opposed to drafting long term.

Just curious what other posters here think about that theory; is it true or not/does that make sense/does anyone buy that concept?

In all honesty, I'm really not sure if that is true or not.

Thoughts?
 

jsinger121

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One point from that article I thought was interesting is how the theory is Belichick drafts year to year based on the schedule/what teams he is facing/personnel he needs vs those teams as opposed to drafting long term.

Just curious what other posters here think about that theory; is it true or not/does that make sense/does anyone buy that concept?

In all honesty, I'm really not sure if that is true or not.

Thoughts?
I personally think that’s a terrible strategy if that is the case. I have no problem signing free agents season to season based on opponents but I think if you do that in the draft you are definitely hurting yourself in the long run.
 

SMU_Sox

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One point from that article I thought was interesting is how the theory is Belichick drafts year to year based on the schedule/what teams he is facing/personnel he needs vs those teams as opposed to drafting long term.

Just curious what other posters here think about that theory; is it true or not/does that make sense/does anyone buy that concept?

In all honesty, I'm really not sure if that is true or not.

Thoughts?
I think this is a bad take. Not you personally but Bedard. Joejuan Williams didn’t work out for the Pats so far but you know who he shut down in college? AJ Brown. Miles Boykin (HT SNomario). He was a big press-man corner who could, in theory, go up against bigger stronger wide receivers who have been entering the league or tight ends who also are receivers. It wasn’t just the yearly schedule that is a defender you can use well against most teams. He was also someone who was big enough to be in the box. He is a size weapon. It seems like it either hasn’t clicked and/or the work ethic isn’t there, or something.

JJW was taking a home run swing at a big receiver and/or TE eraser. It didn’t work out.

Bill has wanted a bigger corner type since Talib. Wouldn’t be surprised if you saw Bill covet multiple DBs in this draft too like Jaycee Horn early on.

Edit: just to be clear JJW was a guy who could be used against virtually every team out there not just KC. To say he was a schedule pick is ignoring the amount of different types of DBs that make up a good secondary. Also, if he hits he would in theory also be excellent against the run.
 

Seels

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Williams was a stupid pick and I'm never going to be convinced otherwise. They needed WR. Yes, I know they just drafted Harry. They had nothing going on at that position and did not need corners.Only pick of the entire era I disliked more is Dowling.

At least Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson were drafted to positions of need of otherwise pretty complete teams. Williams was drafted to a position of depth to a very needy team.
 

SMU_Sox

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If we are looking at the current roster though and the next couple of years with JCJs impending contract and Gilmore's only for 2021 DB was and is a need. Had they hit on a corner there JMC isn't playing as many shitty reps as he had this year. By various accounts he would have been the pick at 32 if Harry were taken. Talk about a bad miss. I think Lombardi said don't be surprised if the Patriots take a corner and I am pretty sure he mentioned Williams. Then they trade up for him. So I think he was onto something there.

Quick edit: not a ton of returns around the league from that 2019 corner class thus far.
 
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Harry Hooper

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I think this is a bad take. Not you personally but Bedard.
That was in Breer's article, not something that came via Bedard. I don't buy it either. I think it's true that BB in recent years has consciously shifted more investment to the secondary vs. the front 7, but that's not season-to-season tweaking.
 

Saints Rest

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That was in Breer's article, not something that came via Bedard. I don't buy it either. I think it's true that BB in recent years has consciously shifted more investment to the secondary vs. the front 7, but that's not season-to-season tweaking.
I agree on both counts. As to the latter, I think Bill has banked on the idea that if you can cover everyone (meaning you need 5-7 strong DBs), you can scheme your pass rush with mid-level front 7. And even the term front 7 is becoming obsolete as nickel is almost universally “base D” now in so many situations against so many teams.
I think that BB had this theory executing on a high level from about mid/late 2018 through middle of 2019.
 

Shelterdog

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The Jordan Richards quote got me all pissed off again. Extremely valid point there re: Bill’s drafting.
It shouldn’t. There are about ten other first and second round picks that are worse. Late second round picks are fifty fifty at best to survive more than a couple years in the league and Richards is a core special teams guy with six years. Just because someone else says Richards was a late pick on their board doesn’t make it true.
Dowling Harry Wheatley Dawson-now those picks sucked.
 

Cellar-Door

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Williams was a stupid pick and I'm never going to be convinced otherwise. They needed WR. Yes, I know they just drafted Harry. They had nothing going on at that position and did not need corners.Only pick of the entire era I disliked more is Dowling.

At least Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson were drafted to positions of need of otherwise pretty complete teams. Williams was drafted to a position of depth to a very needy team.
They weren't taking 2 WRs with their first two picks. Also, CBs take time to develop often, and BB was likely looking forward at the inevitable decline of McCourty (who had just played 80% of snaps and not that well in 2018 before a resurgance in 2019), JC Jackson had played well in the slot, but in limited time, and Jonathan Jones was nothing special. There was reason to be looking at a Cb who brought size and some safety flexibility
 

ramfan

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Can Williams be converted to safety.? There was talk of him getting work there a few months ago but i haven't heard much lately.