2020 Pats: Welcome to Camelot

Pandemonium67

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In the scenario where Cam plays one season and then leaves as an FA, doesn't the whole picture become something like:

Pats lose Brady's age 43 season

Pats get Cam + 3rd in 2021 + 3rd in 2022 + $10M to $15M (salary difference) + whoever they don't have to cut to fit Brady's salary (such as Thuney)

In my fantasy world where Cam leads Pats to SB7, this goes down as the greatest trade of all time.
 

DourDoerr

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That’s a great way to look at it. Cam has fallen into BB’s lap, but the ability and flexibility - in concept and execution - is simply Reason #10,374 why Belichick is Belichickian.
 

DanoooME

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Just seeing this in print makes me want to vomit. I can't imagine the sports induced trauma this causes Bears fans.
And they traded a ton to move up 1 spot to get him. Trading with a team that was very unlikely to take him. Granted the Niners could have traded with another team, but look at what Chicago gave up in the deal. For #2, they gave up #3, #67, #111 and a 2018 3rd. How Ryan Pace keeps his job after that is beyond me.
 

Sille Skrub

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This seems like a typical BB move. Low risk, high reward, roster competition, etc and it's growing on me. If he's healthy, he will be a factor. However, I just can't get over him not diving on that ball in the Super Bowl. I'm also very bullish on Stidham and think he will do well here.

If nothing else, we've cornered the market on Auburn quarterbacks and we should start scouting them for future draft picks. #WarEagle
 

RIFan

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I think McDaniels is probably giddy thinking about plays he can draw up with Cam under center. I can't wait for them to roll out a set with Michel, White, and Vitale set up in a wishbone and run an option. Have Jules in motion out of the slot and the D will have no idea what to do. If Newton comes in and shows he's healthy they'll design the offense around him. Outside of limited preseason action no one will have any tape or idea what to prepare for. The upside on this is tremendous. Downside is that he's cooked and it won't cost much. What's not to like.
 

BaseballJones

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In the scenario where Cam plays one season and then leaves as an FA, doesn't the whole picture become something like:

Pats lose Brady's age 43 season

Pats get Cam + 3rd in 2021 + 3rd in 2022 + $10M to $15M (salary difference) + whoever they don't have to cut to fit Brady's salary (such as Thuney)

In my fantasy world where Cam leads Pats to SB7, this goes down as the greatest trade of all time.
I must have missed it, but why would the Pats get a 3rd in 2021 and a third in 2022? Oh, right, because letting Brady go this year generated a 3rd round comp in 2021, and then letting Cam go after this year would net a 3rd round comp (possibly) in 2022.

This is a really amazing way to think of it.
 

SMU_Sox

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The Pats are essentially buying a 3rd round comp pick, with a chance they cut him and get nothing and a chance that they get not only that pick, but pretty good QB play. That's a gamble worth taking in late June.
Great point on the potential comp pick. We know that other league coaches and front office personnel like to poach Patriots FAs because: "Well if BB wanted to work with him we should too." When you are the trendsetter or at least one of 5 trendsetters in the whole league other folks will follow-suit. And like you said if it doesn't work out no bid deal to anyone. I believe Cam is a better QB than Kirk Cousins and we all know that mid-tier guys are getting paid top dollar given the nature of the position.

As for what this means for Stidham and the QB room. I think the lack of an off-season really hurts him. You'd like to see him have an entire off-season of first team reps as well as have Josh McD adjust some of the offensive play-calling to suit his strong-suits. Stidham and 30+ year old Cam have a lot of skill overlap (assuming Cam's arm/shoulder/foot allow him to regain his ++ arm or at least go from ++ to + arm) and both are mobile. Hoyer was more mobile than Brady and while no one would confuse him with Steve Young he can run bootlegs and rollouts. Hoyer is your classic plywood QB. He can run pretty much any scheme aside from maybe an Arians or a heavy downfield scheme. So you have a QB room where you have a reliable vet with a high floor as a backup but a low ceiling in Hoyer, who knows in Stidham (I don't have an opinion based on pre-season and puff pieces), and then a guy with a medium to high ceiling as a starter but a questionable floor with Cam. Assuming he can hold up for the season Cam is an above average QB so they should have an above average QB group given that Hoyer is an above average backup.

I can't wait to see what offensive adjustments they make for the current QB room.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Great point on the potential comp pick.
Next year is Cam's 10th season. I don't know if that means he has ten "accrued" seasons but if it he does then I think there's a question whether the Patriots would be limited to a 5th round compensatory pick.

The prior CBA had an exclusion for QBs from the 5th round limit for comp picks for ten year players. That's why we're going to get a good comp pick for Brady. But it is not entirely clear to me whether that was a one-year holdover that happened with all the stuff going on with the new CBA last year or whether that same rule applies going forward. The interwebs are confused on the point.
 

SoxFanInPdx

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As a Bama' fan, way too much war eagle at QB. However, there isn't much to hate about this - even though I don't see Cam being completely at least partially cooked.
 

DJnVa

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Next year is Cam's 10th season. I don't know if that means he has ten "accrued" seasons but if it he does then I think there's a question whether the Patriots would be limited to a 5th round compensatory pick.
Schefter is saying 3rd rounder and I'd lean on him having the details.
 

uncannymanny

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Cams had seasons where his best receiver was Kelvin Benjamin. Building on his short game from 2 seasons ago with James White and Julian Edelman? I think hell be solid.
Popularizing the pass-pass option this season with JW. These Cam videos are getting me pumped. If he's really healthy hoo boy.
 

bigq

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Newton outperforming Brady this season would be a great storyline.
 

RetractableRoof

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Just for giggles... people have mentioned the possibilities that must be running through McDaniels mind right about now. Isn't Newton who he was hoping for when he drafted Tebow (hasn't that been said already?)? I mean, a defense loads up to stop the run on a short yardage play... the Pats bring in a heavy blocking set (22 personnel package in maybe a variant of an I formation) with Julian as the WR, play unbalanced games with the TEs and you know the defense is thinking oh crap, because on top of all that, they have to deal with Newton as well. Can Cam catch? Because then you know that at some point out of that formation they will run some sort of passing where Julian is throwing to Newton... and based on those workout videos, I'm not sure the DBs will enjoy that. Just to screw with the defenses, about once a game I'd run a play out of the same 22 personnel where Julian starts out wide, comes in motion and takes over at QB, and Newton goes into motion and becomes the wide out as a decoy and have Julian just do the handoff to the back going away from Newtons side. I mean the permutations the defenses would have to plan for will be endless. The mere threat of his mobility/athleticism would keep defenses from becoming too aggressive without actually exposing Newton to too much additional risk as the QB.

I'd bet McD has been looking at the offensive pressure the 2019 49ers put on the defense over the last few days with a maniacal laugh. A mobile Newton/Stidham, a healthy fullback, pass catching RBs, some new TE toys, an OL that looks to be average plus with any health, a WR group that may be motivated by new opportunities with Brady out and Stidham/Newton in. If this is the direction they go in, the question would be can the team implement such style changes in a shortened training camp.
 

Pedro's Complaint

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If Newton wins the job, I wouldn't minimize the benefit of a year for Stidham under a very different veteran QB from Brady.

If Stidham wins the job, then he has the confidence boost of beating a former MVP (someone he may look up to based on the Auburn lineage).
 

luckiestman

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I see a few posts about Cam’s mobility. I would be trying to limit that and giving him a clean pocket. That running shit is great until he is out for the season or gets concussed. I think it will be best used as an escape valve.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The other issue with tanking is that players hit free agency so fast in the NFL that, unless you have no talent on hand whatsoever, or are able to tank for just one and only one year, it can quickly get counterproductive.

If your M.O. is to let most of your top FAs walk - because they will get offers far in excess of their on field value - then an extended tank means losing talent as you are trying to add it, like running on a treadmill. Worth it if you tank for one year and land a cornerstone player, I guess. But if you don't you might be setting your franchise up for an extended period of weakness.

My brother's thoughts on Cam from a physical perspective.

I think health is the only question mark here, but it is a significant one.

I think Cam is here for one year on a make good deal, to rebuild value in himself, as other mid to late career FAs have dome with the Pats. The fact that he opted for this kind of deal, and the Pats offered it to him, suggests to me that healthwise he is OK - or at least that both parties think there's a good shot that he can be OK. I think if he thought was toast he would have sought a multiyear deal with some guaranteed money from a bottom feedimng team with bad management, and I doin't think the Pats would have even bothered with a cheap flier on him if they believed he was done.

Assuming there is a season at all, and that Cam is healthy, I think he starts, plays well, takes the Pats to the playoffs, and cashes in elsewhere in 2021, getting a big deal that he ultimately does not live up to. But he may ring up his best season numbers outside of the MVP year.

I don't think they are sold on Stidham as heir apparent to Brady, and so I don;t think they are overly concerned about harming Stidham's development.
Sorry if this has been covered, I'm trying to catch up here; who's your brother?
 

BaseballJones

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I see a few posts about Cam’s mobility. I would be trying to limit that and giving him a clean pocket. That running shit is great until he is out for the season or gets concussed. I think it will be best used as an escape valve.
I actually think that NE could consider letting Cam run *more*. Why? Because it's only a one-year investment, and I honestly don't see them signing him long-term for big dollars. So why not get everything you can out of him this year? They don't have his long-term health to consider (as brutal as that may seem).
 

luckiestman

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I actually think that NE could consider letting Cam run *more*. Why? Because it's only a one-year investment, and I honestly don't see them signing him long-term for big dollars. So why not get everything you can out of him this year? They don't have his long-term health to consider (as brutal as that may seem).
I see the merit in that. I would try to keep him as safe as possible until the playoffs.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I actually think that NE could consider letting Cam run *more*. Why? Because it's only a one-year investment, and I honestly don't see them signing him long-term for big dollars. So why not get everything you can out of him this year? They don't have his long-term health to consider (as brutal as that may seem).
It's called "Quantrilling", IIRC
 

BaseballJones

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A little hope for Newton... In 2019 obviously he was hurt and missed virtually the entire season, so it's really hard to draw any conclusions from that. And the last couple of games in 2018, after he got hurt, he was also bad.

But his first 12 games of 2018 were really good:

278-400 (69.5%), 2,999 yds, 7.5 y/a, 24 td, 11 int, 99.8 rating, 91 rushes, 450 yds, 4 td

So in 12 games he accounted for 3,449 yards and 28 touchdowns. Pro-rate that over 16 games and it's 4,598 total yards and 37 touchdowns.

Or something like what Lamar Jackson did this past year.
 

BigSoxFan

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Just realized that the 27 year or whatever streak of starting a QB we drafted is in serious jeopardy.
 

vadertime

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Rehashing a lot of what's been said but I hate this.

1. If he's good, and that's a big if coming off of Linsfranc then sure, we may have a superbowl run. But we'll be in the same spot we are now next year, not knowing if Stidham can do the job and/or knowing he can't and be stuck. Since, if Newton does have a big year, we've already shown we don't want to pay $30 million to a QB. And although details haven't come out, if Cam's agent knows what he's doing, he should've put in the inability to franchise to prevent a sign and trade.

2. Sure, if he's bad they can cut him. But that's still valuable reps he took away from Stidham. And I want Stidham taking as many reps as possible to build the rapor with the WR and TE.

3. Hoyer. I'd like to think the whole "chance to compete" is him being the good solider and he came here knowing he'd be holding a clipboard. But, if they did legit promise him a chance at the job, then he's going to PO'ed at this signing, because now he probably has no chance, and that doesn't look good for future free agents that may sign.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I wish Gronk came back for Cam. Obviously Gronk never fit in our cap and probably would only play for Brady at this point, but something I dreamt about today.
 

BaseballJones

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Rehashing a lot of what's been said but I hate this.
...
3. Hoyer. I'd like to think the whole "chance to compete" is him being the good solider and he came here knowing he'd be holding a clipboard. But, if they did legit promise him a chance at the job, then he's going to PO'ed at this signing, because now he probably has no chance, and that doesn't look good for future free agents that may sign.
There's not a single decent free agent that will be turned off to the Patriots because they told Hoyer he'd be given a chance to compete, only to have them sign Cam.
 

Soxy

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Rehashing a lot of what's been said but I hate this.

1. If he's good, and that's a big if coming off of Linsfranc then sure, we may have a superbowl run. But we'll be in the same spot we are now next year, not knowing if Stidham can do the job and/or knowing he can't and be stuck. Since, if Newton does have a big year, we've already shown we don't want to pay $30 million to a QB. And although details haven't come out, if Cam's agent knows what he's doing, he should've put in the inability to franchise to prevent a sign and trade.

2. Sure, if he's bad they can cut him. But that's still valuable reps he took away from Stidham. And I want Stidham taking as many reps as possible to build the rapor with the WR and TE.

3. Hoyer. I'd like to think the whole "chance to compete" is him being the good solider and he came here knowing he'd be holding a clipboard. But, if they did legit promise him a chance at the job, then he's going to PO'ed at this signing, because now he probably has no chance, and that doesn't look good for future free agents that may sign.
Counterpoint: all of these are dumb.

1. If the Patriots go on a Super Bowl run, nobody will care that we still don't have a QB in 2021.

2. You're worried about a former #1 overall pick and NFL MVP taking reps away from a second year 4th round pick who has proven nothing. I want Stidham to grow and develop too, but not at the expense of an unquestionably better, more proven player.

3. There are probably some legitimate reasons to not sign Cam Newton but "It might hurt Brian Hoyer's feelings" is definitely not on the list.

I've said my piece on Cam in other threads over the past few months, so I won't repeat myself too much. All I'll say is that Cam is a beast, an athletic freak, and a tough SOB. If he's healthy and can mesh with the Pats culture, he's going to ball out and it's going to be glorious.

If it doesn't work out, whatever. I'm certainly not passing on a chance to get Cam Newton because of Jarrett Stidham, that's for sure. I'm fairly high on Stidham, but it's not even remotely certain that he's an NFL caliber player right now. We all talked ourselves into him, because we kind of had to, but c'mon. Let's be real here.
 

InstaFace

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If Cam has a great year, he'll be looking for $30M+ annually on the open market. I guess I could see the Pats giving him a decent deal, but the more likely scenario is he signs somewhere else.
Should we have a half-hearted word of criticism for BB not including a (decently-priced but somewhat discounted, maybe fully guaranteed) 2021 team option in this deal? Like, OK he's on an incentive-laden deal, if he's healthy and rocks out he could earn $7.5 in 2020, nearly all against the 2021 cap. That's our upside, near-pro-bowl level production for no cap this year. But if he does all that, it sure would have been nice to have a (say) $20M fully-guaranteed option year sitting there to capture a little more upside. I'd say Revis style, except Revis's was designed to be a poison pill, but there's a number that probably makes sense as a floor under Cam, where if he earns it he can bank on a damn good payday but we still get another year of good QB production for at least a little below market.

If we had the leverage to get him to sign for the minimum this year, I have to imagine that was in the realm of possibility negotiations-wise.
 

loshjott

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Somebody up thread said this could take some pressure off Stidham from being “the guy replacing Tom Brady.” I agree with that. If Stidham has a lousy stretch of games and gets benched it could really mess up his psyche. Cam could really smooth out this transition.
 

RedOctober3829

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Should we have a half-hearted word of criticism for BB not including a (decently-priced but somewhat discounted, maybe fully guaranteed) 2021 team option in this deal? Like, OK he's on an incentive-laden deal, if he's healthy and rocks out he could earn $7.5 in 2020, nearly all against the 2021 cap. That's our upside, near-pro-bowl level production for no cap this year. But if he does all that, it sure would have been nice to have a (say) $20M fully-guaranteed option year sitting there to capture a little more upside. I'd say Revis style, except Revis's was designed to be a poison pill, but there's a number that probably makes sense as a floor under Cam, where if he earns it he can bank on a damn good payday but we still get another year of good QB production for at least a little below market.

If we had the leverage to get him to sign for the minimum this year, I have to imagine that was in the realm of possibility negotiations-wise.
I dont think Cam wanted an option year. He wanted a 1 year make good contract so he could show the league he’s worthy of another long term big money deal. Bill is all about those types of deals. If they really want to they could franchise him so in one sense they already hold a team option.
 

DourDoerr

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Rehashing a lot of what's been said but I hate this.

1. But we'll be in the same spot we are now next year, not knowing if Stidham can do the job and/or knowing he can't and be stuck. Since, if Newton does have a big year, we've already shown we don't want to pay $30 million to a QB.
Next year will be a completely different deal cap-wise. BB doesn't want to pay $30 million to a old QB when he's capped out. Will he be willing to pay top dollar if he has cap space? We may find out. I'd guess he likes this as a bridge, a first-look, and he also buys more time to gauge Stidham through practice, etc. Stidham may be a lottery ticket and now BB has two.
 

Cellar-Door

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Any argument that is based on holding back Stidham is fundamentally dumb. The odds are strongly against Stidham being a good NFL QB, you don't turn down a chance at a good NFL starter because he might take reps from a 4th rounder you like but who also was going to compete with a below average backup for the starting role. I get it, people hear the news reports that the coaching staff likes Stidham... they like Rohan Davey to keep him as the backup for 3 years, they liked Matt Cassell enough to make him the backup, and start him 15 times when Brady got hurt, They loved Brian Hoyer, they liked Ryan Mallett, if any of those guys had been the backup last year they would be in Stidham's position, and obviously none of them were anywhere near Cam's equal (even bad injured Cam).