2020 Pats: Welcome to Camelot

54thMA

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I wonder if Rex Ryan still feels "Today, the Patriots are just like the other 31 teams in the league."


Regardless of how this turns out, I love the fact that the right now, the media and opposing fans are now thinking "Oh no, not again"...………….
 

Joe D Reid

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Should we have a half-hearted word of criticism for BB not including a (decently-priced but somewhat discounted, maybe fully guaranteed) 2021 team option in this deal? Like, OK he's on an incentive-laden deal, if he's healthy and rocks out he could earn $7.5 in 2020, nearly all against the 2021 cap. That's our upside, near-pro-bowl level production for no cap this year. But if he does all that, it sure would have been nice to have a (say) $20M fully-guaranteed option year sitting there to capture a little more upside. I'd say Revis style, except Revis's was designed to be a poison pill, but there's a number that probably makes sense as a floor under Cam, where if he earns it he can bank on a damn good payday but we still get another year of good QB production for at least a little below market.

If we had the leverage to get him to sign for the minimum this year, I have to imagine that was in the realm of possibility negotiations-wise.
Because so much of his cap hit for the upcoming year will actually fall in 2021, it's hard to set the option. Sure, if he'd be willing to take incredibly low money for another year hooray. But the Pats would be in the same spot with Cam next year that they were with Brady this year, where their ability to put new money in his hands next year was limited by the amount of the cap hit. Even under your model with a $20M option, that's $27.5M in cap hit for 2021 (assuming he hits the incentives this year). That's not a lot of excess value.

At some point we'll have to reset the roster or stop kicking QB cap hits into the future. 0But at least this year we only kick a meaningful cap hit into the future if we get good play.)
 

mauf

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Should we have a half-hearted word of criticism for BB not including a (decently-priced but somewhat discounted, maybe fully guaranteed) 2021 team option in this deal? Like, OK he's on an incentive-laden deal, if he's healthy and rocks out he could earn $7.5 in 2020, nearly all against the 2021 cap. That's our upside, near-pro-bowl level production for no cap this year. But if he does all that, it sure would have been nice to have a (say) $20M fully-guaranteed option year sitting there to capture a little more upside. I'd say Revis style, except Revis's was designed to be a poison pill, but there's a number that probably makes sense as a floor under Cam, where if he earns it he can bank on a damn good payday but we still get another year of good QB production for at least a little below market.

If we had the leverage to get him to sign for the minimum this year, I have to imagine that was in the realm of possibility negotiations-wise.

The main thing Cam got here is the likely* chance to be starting QB for a decent-to-good team and rebuild his value heading into next season. He’ll deal with getting tagged and earning $27 million next year if push comes to shove**; short of that, he wants his freedom. No reason to believe he would’ve given that up without some very substantial guarantees which, given their cap situation, the Pats were in no position to offer.

*- Cam doesn’t take the deal if he isn’t confident he can beat out Stidham. Whether that confidence is well-founded is a separate question.

** - If this comes to pass, Cam’s NLTBE incentives have fully kicked in, so his cap number would be more like $34 million. He’s probably not too worried about getting tagged.
 

scottyno

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3. Hoyer. I'd like to think the whole "chance to compete" is him being the good solider and he came here knowing he'd be holding a clipboard. But, if they did legit promise him a chance at the job, then he's going to PO'ed at this signing, because now he probably has no chance, and that doesn't look good for future free agents that may sign.
Hoyer still has the same chance to compete for the job, he hasn't been cut, if he is somehow significantly better than both of them in camp he's going to start.
 

JMDurron

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This seems like a typical BB move. Low risk, high reward, roster competition, etc and it's growing on me. If he's healthy, he will be a factor. However, I just can't get over him not diving on that ball in the Super Bowl. I'm also very bullish on Stidham and think he will do well here.

If nothing else, we've cornered the market on Auburn quarterbacks and we should start scouting them for future draft picks. #WarEagle
Any QB who can produce with the WR corps that Auburn typically has (apologies to Sammie Coates and...um...Courtney Taylor? Duke Williams?) is NFL worthy.

I'm not sure how to feel right now. I'm excited and terrified of this as an Auburn fan and a Patriots fan at the same time. It's like watching Gus Malzahn coach that way.

No matter what happens, I guarantee that Cam Newton will be better for the Patriots than Jonathan Wilhite was.
 

Harry Hooper

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Alex Kay at Forbes wrote:

The quarterback underwent surgery for his Lisfranc injury back in December and has not been able to show how his recovery is progressing due to the league’s shifting landscape in wake of the coronavirus pandemic. This surely played a significant part in why he was still available after being cut over three months ago, given personnel departments couldn’t bring the signal-caller in for workouts and get a closer look at how the foot injury may still be impacting him.

Lisfranc injuries have traditionally been tough for NFL players to recover from, especially in a relatively quick fashion. According to a study released in 2018 of 35 players to suffer one, 29 were able to continue their career after an average recovery time of 10 months, but overall started fewer games than before the injury in the three years following it and many “showed a significant decline in performance one season after return compared to preinjury levels”, with offensive players tending to suffer more substantial performance drops than defensive players.
Newton would be in month 6 of post-surgical recovery?
 

axx

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Hoyer still has the same chance to compete for the job, he hasn't been cut, if he is somehow significantly better than both of them in camp he's going to start.
Shouldn't rule them out taking 3 QBs given the Rona. But it's going to be an uphill battle for him to see the field.
 

Cellar-Door

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Any QB who can produce with the WR corps that Auburn typically has (apologies to Sammie Coates and...um...Courtney Taylor? Duke Williams?) is NFL worthy.

I'm not sure how to feel right now. I'm excited and terrified of this as an Auburn fan and a Patriots fan at the same time. It's like watching Gus Malzahn coach that way.

No matter what happens, I guarantee that Cam Newton will be better for the Patriots than Jonathan Wilhite was.
Stidham had Darius Slayton and Seth Williams (who is projected as a possible 1st rounder in 2021).

Newton on the other hand dragged a pile of garbage to the title.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Alex Kay at Forbes wrote:



Newton would be in month 6 of post-surgical recovery?
I have zero idea whether Newton is healthy. That clearly stated, I wonder a bit about that study. Wouldn’t most samples of NFL players show a decline in games started three years later? Guys just don’t hold up very long in the NFL.
 

JMDurron

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Stidham had Darius Slayton and Seth Williams (who is projected as a possible 1st rounder in 2021).

Newton on the other hand dragged a pile of garbage to the title.
Slayton wouldn’t shock me if he became a decent NFL contributor for a few years. I’m no Mascho, obviously, but I’ve watched 98% of football Auburn games outside of since around 1999, and Seth Williams doesn’t even register in my mind after I read this.

If Seth Williams produces enough in the parallel universe that gets to have a 2020 college football season to become a 1st round pick, I will be happily surprised and will eat my words above.
 

Eddie Jurak

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1. If he's good, and that's a big if coming off of Linsfranc then sure, we may have a superbowl run. But we'll be in the same spot we are now next year, not knowing if Stidham can do the job and/or knowing he can't and be stuck.
I for one, would not trade away a Superbowl run to learn more about Stidham.
 

Cellar-Door

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Slayton wouldn’t shock me if he became a decent NFL contributor for a few years. I’m no Mascho, obviously, but I’ve watched 98% of football Auburn games outside of since around 1999, and Seth Williams doesn’t even register in my mind after I read this.

If Seth Williams produces enough in the parallel universe that gets to have a 2020 college football season to become a 1st round pick, I will be happily surprised and will eat my words above.
Williams put up 58/830/8 last year, that's better than Reagor who went 1st round in a historically loaded WR draft, and better than Shenault who went 42. He could fall off a cliff, but even similar production next year puts him in the first 2 rounds likely.
 

JMDurron

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Williams put up 58/830/8 last year, that's better than Reagor who went 1st round in a historically loaded WR draft, and better than Shenault who went 42. He could fall off a cliff, but even similar production next year puts him in the first 2 rounds likely.
Upon further review, I appear to have blanked on the fact that Slayton was already gone last season, and it was Williams who was the go-to guy in 2019. I guess I let my rage level for Malzahn's offense by mid-season blind me to key details on the field, like who was actually making plays and how often they did so. So, that's my fault for conflating the 2018 and 2019 WR talent.
 

EL Jeffe

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Alex Kay at Forbes wrote:



Newton would be in month 6 of post-surgical recovery?
Dr. Robert Anderson, who I guess is the foot/ankle guru, says Lisfranc surgeries are a 5-6 month rehab process. I'm wondering if Forbes is using 10 months since most players go on IR after the surgery, so they're essentially out for the entire season?

There are situations where the Lisfranc needs to be operated on. If the joint is out of place or has a bone injury or has significant instability, then those are reasons for surgery and surgery is basically done to stabilize those joint injuries with a combination of screws or metal plates. That can take 5-6 months to recover from surgery. I tell most of the players, it's not a career-ending injury, but it certainly can be a season-ending injury if they have to have surgery.
 

lexrageorge

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Of the 121 quarterbacks Brady has faced in his career (not counting cameo appearances by backups), there are only 7 he has never beaten, 4 of which he's faced only once:

Lamar Jackson: 0-1
Nick Foles: 0-1

Kevin Kolb (!): 0-1
Patrick Ramsey: 0-1
Brian Griese: 0-2
Jake Plummer: 0-3

And, Cam Newton: 0-2

Of the 3 active QB's on that list (bolded), Newton is the only one that has beaten Brady more than once. And fuck the Broncos!!
 

heavyde050

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Of the 121 quarterbacks Brady has faced in his career (not counting cameo appearances by backups), there are only 7 he has never beaten, 4 of which he's faced only once:

Lamar Jackson: 0-1
Nick Foles: 0-1

Kevin Kolb (!): 0-1
Patrick Ramsey: 0-1
Brian Griese: 0-2
Jake Plummer: 0-3

And, Cam Newton: 0-2

Of the 3 active QB's on that list (bolded), Newton is the only one that has beaten Brady more than once. And fuck the Broncos!!
One of those wins came on a pretty dubious picked up flag. I mean Luke Kuechly committed a penalty, was flagged for a penalty, and then it got picked up for some reason.
 

lexrageorge

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It's mildly notable that the Pats were 3-3 against Carolina in the Brady era:

2001: Win vs Chris Weinke in the final game of the season.
2003: Super Bowl win vs Jake Delhomme
2005: Loss vs Delhomme
2009: Win vs Matt Moore, against whom Brady went 4-0 in his career (3-0 with the Dolphins).

2013: 24-20 loss. Newton led them on a 4th quarter drive, while Brady's 4th quarter drive got them to the Carolina 18 before time expired.

2017: 33-30 loss. Brady brought them back from a 14 point deficit with 2 TD's in the 4th quarter, but the Pats defense folded as Carolina kicked a game winning FG.
 

BaseballJones

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Of the 121 quarterbacks Brady has faced in his career (not counting cameo appearances by backups), there are only 7 he has never beaten, 4 of which he's faced only once:

Lamar Jackson: 0-1
Nick Foles: 0-1

Kevin Kolb (!): 0-1
Patrick Ramsey: 0-1
Brian Griese: 0-2
Jake Plummer: 0-3

And, Cam Newton: 0-2

Of the 3 active QB's on that list (bolded), Newton is the only one that has beaten Brady more than once. And fuck the Broncos!!
How in the world does Tom Brady go 0-5 against Brian Griese and Jake Plummer? Boggles the mind.
 

BaseballJones

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This article should get us hyped about Cam here:


The conclusion...

"Cam should win this job, unless a) he's not healthy or b) Stidham is a monster. Either way is a win for Belichick, because he gets a free roll with the most dynamic red zone threat to ever play professional football. A healthy Cam feels difficult because of how long it's been since we saw 16 games, but it's not far-fetched. Imagine thinking Belichick finally lost Brady and then somehow got healthy Cam for a couple seasons. The AFC East has been licking its chops for a few years now, but that hubris might have been misplaced."
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Final poll numbers:
  • A: 135 Votes (49.8%)
  • B: 87 Votes (32.1%)
  • C: 12 Votes (4.4%)
  • D: 5 Votes (1.8%)
  • F: 5 Votes (1.8%)
  • Incomplete: 27 Votes (10.0%)
BBtL seems to like the move.
 

DourDoerr

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One more reason to like the move is it creates a ton of uncertainty for opposing defenses. If they thought they had a handle on the Pats' offense, now they have to start from scratch which is nice given the familiarity within the AFC and the AFC East in particular. A secondary bonus is the relative unfamilarity with Newton in the AFC since he played in the other conference. Should be an edge - particularly in the early part of the season.

Are there any numbers on Newton in cold weather?
 

BaseballJones

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One more reason to like the move is it creates a ton of uncertainty for opposing defenses. If they thought they had a handle on the Pats' offense, now they have to start from scratch which is nice given the familiarity within the AFC and the AFC East in particular. A secondary bonus is the relative unfamilarity with Newton in the AFC since he played in the other conference. Should be an edge - particularly in the early part of the season.

Are there any numbers on Newton in cold weather?
ESPN breaks down his stats for less than 40 degrees, so that's the best we can do. Here's his numbers:

2012: 18-28, 306 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 14 rushes, 52 yds, 2 td
2014: 18-35, 194 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 9 rushes, 49 yds, 0 td
2016: 45-96, 642 yds, 4 td, 1 int, 14 rushes, 43 yds, 0 td
2018: 49-71, 458 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 7 rushes, 33 yds, 0 td

So in 6 games with temps below 40 degrees, his overall line is:

130-230 (56.5%), 1,600 yds, 7.0 y/a, 9 td, 4 int, 44 rushes, 177 yds, 2 td, 84.0 passer rating

Average cold-weather game: 22-38, 267 yds, 1-2 td, 1 int, 7 rushes, 30 yds - something like this. I think if he did that and the defense does what it's capable of doing, then the Patriots would be in pretty good shape.
 

DourDoerr

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Thanks for digging that up! I've sworn off ESPN since Deflategate, so I appreciate the share. Pretty small sample size, but I think you're right - those aren't outstanding numbers, but you can certainly win with them. If he can get the comp % up - and there are indications that this could be an area of growth for him - along with a familiarity with the cold, then this may be his floor.
 

Cellar-Door

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So looking at what we might see from Cam, I looked back at 2018 Cam pre-shoulder injury.
This was the year he played under Norv Turner who ran the type of offense I'd expect McDaniels to run similar to. (Emphasis on getting the ball out quick, reducing unnecessary hits).

Through the game in which he got hurt Cam put up.
GP ATT CMP CMP% YRDS Y/A AY/A TD INT RUSH YD RUSH TD
9 292 200 68.5 2086 7.14 7.54 17 5 352 4
 

DourDoerr

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In the first round of speculation on whether BB would bring CN in, those numbers are exactly why it made sense. That's an elite QB. I can't believe some other team didn't jump in. It's incredible that his salary finally dropped to a space that allowed BB to make his move. I mentioned this long ago, but BB remembers the players who did damage against the Pats and it seems to color his view on their abilities (as it should - but he seems to give it a special point of emphasis). CN's another one of those players.
 

axx

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In the first round of speculation on whether BB would bring CN in, those numbers are exactly why it made sense. That's an elite QB. I can't believe some other team didn't jump in. It's incredible that his salary finally dropped to a space that allowed BB to make his move. I mentioned this long ago, but BB remembers the players who did damage against the Pats and it seems to color his view on their abilities (as it should - but he seems to give it a special point of emphasis). CN's another one of those players.
Cam wanted to go to a team where he'd be the starter. You could see some teams being reluctant with him coming off the injuries.
 

bakahump

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Mentioned something like this before, but I could See Hoyer becoming a "QB Asst. Coach". Putting together the scout team constantly being in Stidhams ear etc etc.
All the while being 1st man up should Cam or Stidham get hurt.
Who knows maybe he will decide he made enough and go home to the wife and kids. But I doubt it will be his ability to be a competent backup that will keep him from coaching. (And I dont say that to be a dick. He just isnt going to go many places and usurp the existing options).
 

DourDoerr

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Sure, the injuries matter, but so should the data on them. It seems the foot injury has an established time table and next season falls within the recovery expectations. A team can also reference current video and see his performance and if it's compromised by injury. I'm not with the NFL obviously, but I've seen the video shared here of his workouts and he seems plenty healthy to me. IANAD so perhaps the finer points are escaping me, but NFL teams have doctors and, I assume, better access to better and more video as well. Not sure how CV affects any decision-making though.

If the injuries are moot then (an assumption) he just has a high ceiling and high floor and it's Cam Newton. We just had Tom Brady and I'm still very excited to see Newton play - and I had a healthy dislike of his antics during his salad days. It just might be BB's mystique will continue to pull in players curious to see what exactly goes on behind the curtains and nobody else was going to get him at any kind of discount.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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No, Tom. You dont get to breakup with Jules, and then get jealous when he gets another hot girlfriend.

Keep those thirsty messages for Evans and Godwin.
 

RorschachsMask

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No, Tom. You dont get to breakup with Jules, and then get jealous when he gets another hot girlfriend.

Keep those thirsty messages for Evans and Godwin.
Seriously, I love Tom, but this was the first time since he’s been gone that I really was offput and wanted him to shut the fuck up.
 

mauf

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How in the world does Tom Brady go 0-5 against Brian Griese and Jake Plummer? Boggles the mind.
If someone said “the Broncos have been the Pats’ worthiest rival over the past two decades,” you would agree with that, right?

This is just pointing out that the Broncos have had a couple crummy QBs during that span.
 

mauf

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That's very surprising. Given the discount and need to reset his market, it's odd that CN didn't include language that would allow him to take full advantage of a potential market reset. Concession due to injury concerns?
Not worth using any of his leverage to obtain. The Pats aren’t going to sign up for a $34 million cap hit for Newton in 2021. And no one’s going to agree to a tag-and-trade without a deal with Newton in place. Better to use whatever leverage he had to push for richer incentives.
 

DJnVa

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I can see it happening. The cap is wide open next year, if Cam is pre-injury 2018 Cam, you either tag or extend him, that's a top 7-9 QB.
Agree to disagree, that NE might tag him and have a $30M hold on the cap.

Maybe I should say, I doubt he *plays* at that cap number.
 

BigJimEd

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Not worth using any of his leverage to obtain. The Pats aren’t going to sign up for a $34 million cap hit for Newton in 2021. And no one’s going to agree to a tag-and-trade without a deal with Newton in place. Better to use whatever leverage he had to push for richer incentives.
There's a long way to go before we really have to think about this but, theoretically, I don't see why not. First the incentives for this season are irrelevant. The Pats will be on the hook for those no matter what. The question will be if Newton is worth the $27 M (or whatever the tag ends up). At this point, I would say it is a long shot but not going to rule it out at this point.
 

mauf

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There's a long way to go before we really have to think about this but, theoretically, I don't see why not. First the incentives for this season are irrelevant. The Pats will be on the hook for those no matter what. The question will be if Newton is worth the $27 M (or whatever the tag ends up). At this point, I would say it is a long shot but not going to rule it out at this point.
The $7 million is sunk, but you’re still talking about $34 million in space tied for a single player, against a cap that’s likely to decline at least modestly in 2021 due to COVID-related revenue losses in 2020. I don’t see how the Pats take that on and still field a competitive team. So if Cam is good and the Pats want him back, they have to work out a long-term deal that gets his 2021 cap hit down to something more manageable.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The $7 million is sunk, but you’re still talking about $34 million in space tied for a single player, against a cap that’s likely to decline at least modestly in 2021 due to COVID-related revenue losses in 2020. I don’t see how the Pats take that on and still field a competitive team. So if Cam is good and the Pats want him back, they have to work out a long-term deal that gets his 2021 cap hit down to something more manageable.
They have like $90M in cap space next year before any other moves or manipulations. If he plays like old Cam, they'll find a way.
 

DourDoerr

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Not worth using any of his leverage to obtain. The Pats aren’t going to sign up for a $34 million cap hit for Newton in 2021. And no one’s going to agree to a tag-and-trade without a deal with Newton in place. Better to use whatever leverage he had to push for richer incentives.
I think you're probably right, but it'd be negligent for Newton's agent to not ask for the tag to be off limits. It's interesting to me that BB has kept this option open and, while it's unlikely, BB can now sign CN to a franchise tag if he wants and - if he thinks it'll make the team better - I believe within reason (i.e. plenty of cap space) he'll do it.