2020 TB12: The Decision 2020

How Would You Feel if Brady Left?

  • Completely devastated

    Votes: 24 13.0%
  • Very disappointed but still got BB

    Votes: 84 45.4%
  • Hold my beer until we know our next QB

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Eh, this may turn out to be a plus

    Votes: 32 17.3%
  • Let the Stidham era begin!

    Votes: 16 8.6%

  • Total voters
    185
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lexrageorge

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Well, "pretty unlikely" is a difference from his answers to the retirement question in prior years. So I still don't rule it out entirely.

Wow! FIrst time in this thread. That poll confirms Patriots fans are not ready to accept reality.

I've got Brady as a Charger next year. Possibly as a 3 QB swap of sorts with Rivers in Indy and Brissett back in NE or Dalton here until we draft another Jimmy G (assuming Stidham is not him).
Agree that the Chargers remain a likely landing spot, with the Giants, Raiders, 49'ers, and Dolphins being the dark horse candidates. But there is no way the Pats are bringing in Andy Dalton; Stidham is a far better and cheaper choice if they need to Tank for Trevor.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Wow! FIrst time in this thread. That poll confirms Patriots fans are not ready to accept reality.

I've got Brady as a Charger next year. Possibly as a 3 QB swap of sorts with Rivers in Indy and Brissett back in NE or Dalton here until we draft another Jimmy G (assuming Stidham is not him).
This musical chairs attempt is basically an attempt at throwing darts (the Colts swapping out Brissett for Rivers, Rivers playing in Indy?), and you’re scoffing at people for concluding that Brady will be here?

I’ve yet to read a good case for why the Chargers would back Brady over Rivers, or why Brady would want to play 1-2 years across the country for a team nobody cares about and arguably isn’t better positioned to compete next year. In about two minutes you can eliminate about 29 teams from this discussion out of hand. This, again isn’t about picking what is possible, it’s about picking what is most likely.
 

heavyde050

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Wow! FIrst time in this thread. That poll confirms Patriots fans are not ready to accept reality with nearly 75% expecting him to return here.

I've got Brady as a Charger next year. Possibly as a 3 QB swap of sorts with Rivers in Indy and Brissett back in NE or Dalton here until we draft another Jimmy G (assuming Stidham is not him).
Why would the Pats want to draft another Jimmy G? Shouldn’t the goal be the next Brady?
 

InstaFace

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I have searched in vain for a place where I can bet against those saying he will retire or play for another team. Bovada was apparently running that particular prop bet a month ago but I can't find it now. If anyone has a link, let me know, I just might (I don't usually bet on sports).
 

BaseballJones

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The only way he doesn’t come back is if BB doesn’t want him back and wins the ensuing argument with Kraft.
 

Soxy

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My money is on this: Brady, Belichick, and Kraft all sit down and realize that they want the same thing. Brady comes back on a relatively team friendly contract for another couple years. Then Brady and Belichick retire.
 

Harry Hooper

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My money is on this: Brady, Belichick, and Kraft all sit down and realize that they want the same thing. Brady comes back on a relatively team friendly contract for another couple years. Then Brady and Belichick retire.



I'll stick with what I posted above:

If Tom really wants to play 3 more seasons, he's likely playing for a new team next year. If 2 more seasons is the goal, he can probably work something out with the Pats.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I still say he's back. Given the options, go with the devil you know. That applies to all parties involved. Brady knows the system better than anyone who might be brought in, even with McDaniels possibly leaving (I wouldn't rule out Belichick hanging it up and Josh sliding into the HC role here, but it's improbable) and a whole new offensive roster.
 

djbayko

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I have searched in vain for a place where I can bet against those saying he will retire or play for another team. Bovada was apparently running that particular prop bet a month ago but I can't find it now. If anyone has a link, let me know, I just might (I don't usually bet on sports).
Bovada and BetOnline have posted this future bet a couple times each over the course of the regular season ar pretty good odds (lines always put up when Brady rumors are in the twitterverse so betting action is heavily influenced). I’m sure it will come up again in the off-season. I’ll keep you in mind if I see it.

(Both books are trustworthy)
 

Boston Brawler

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I vote he is back and the team does it’s best to find receivers and repair the O line. The window is still open.

And BB does not retire until he passes Shula on the all time wins list. It’s in reach within 4-5 seasons.
 

lexrageorge

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I have searched in vain for a place where I can bet against those saying he will retire or play for another team. Bovada was apparently running that particular prop bet a month ago but I can't find it now. If anyone has a link, let me know, I just might (I don't usually bet on sports).
While I admire your conviction and confidence, I'm not sure it's not misplaced.

From the Pats perspective, the team has a lot of holes to fill once retirements, free agency, and aging curves are accounted for. It will not be easy to work out a 2 year deal for Brady while keeping enough salary cap space to fill those holes. And there is a real question about whether it makes sense for the team go for a longer term contract.

From Brady's perspective, he's not coming back if the team decides it need to rebuild. Watson and Dorsett are gone; Sanu should be gone; Edelman may be forced into retirement. Gronk is not coming back.

If I were to rank all 31 possibilities, which included retirement, I would still put returning to New England as the most probable. Retirement is probably in the top 5 (he ain't going to Carolina or Washington). But the distribution of probabilities is no longer 90% weighted to the number 1 option. Sorry, but the odds of a Pats return are probably at best 50/50, and even those odds may be optimistic. But I'm not in position to bet on this either.
 

mikeot

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Posted on Globe message board: "It ain't over 'til the Brazilian supermodel sings."
 

Trautwein's Degree

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Well, "pretty unlikely" is a difference from his answers to the retirement question in prior years. So I still don't rule it out entirely.
In watching that press conference the thing that was clear was he wasn't talking about his future. He could have played the role of Belichick and kept repeating "I've already answered that". But he didn't go that root. He made it clear he would sit down and explore all options and as of now retirement was unlikely which was his strongest statement about any one option he was asked about.

I think he was being honest. And I think if I were him - I would sit with what is. And from a negotiating perspective there's a ton of value in keeping the other side guessing. Maybe the Pats know he won't sign elsewhere and his only leverage is "I may hang them up".

My takeaway in watching the press conference and following him for 20 years is that it's 95% likely he's back. The only wildcard being is if Belichick doesn't want him back. Though I think Kraft pulls rank in that situation.
 
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I’m sure Belichick the coach would love to have Brady back.

Belichick the GM might not be interested in a 2-3 year deal at $20+ million.
Well, given that Belichick the GM has recently become EASILY the weakest link in this group of assets, I’d like to respectfully tell Belichick the GM to sit this one out. Obvious Patriot WR types like Deebo and AJ Brown (who CAN get separation and run great routes), taking a flyer on a TE like Dawson Knox, getting cute with offering juuuuuuuuuust the right amount to not quite land useful vet FA parts, blowing cap $$$ on an iffy AB situation. Maybe pipe down and give the man some weapons.

edit: typos and, yes, I know I’m being reactive and BB has built the greatest dynasty ever and I know, I know, I know.
 
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Joe Sixpack

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Bovada and BetOnline have posted this future bet a couple times each over the course of the regular season ar pretty good odds (lines always put up when Brady rumors are in the twitterverse so betting action is heavily influenced). I’m sure it will come up again in the off-season. I’ll keep you in mind if I see it.

(Both books are trustworthy)
Betonline just posted all their Tom Brady related bets (and there are many).

-200 for him to be on Pats roster week 1.

The leading non-Pats contender is Cleveland at +550 (they also have Josh McDaniels as the favorite to become the Browns coach).

-200 Pats win the division with Brady next year (Brady must start game 1 for the Pats for action on the bet).
 

BaseballJones

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I’m fully on board with KFP and 8slim. I think that’s exactly what happens. BB realizes that Brady still represents his best chance moving forward but needs cap space so an extension not not gives Brady some security, it also lessens the cap hit because it can be spread out. Brady also understands that this is the best situation for him and takes a below market deal and both sides work towards #7 next year.

And we will be right back here next year with the Pats in the playoffs, much to the dismay of the critics. They won’t likely win it all (they’ve “only” won it 6 out of the 19 seasons during this dynasty after all), but they’ll be a contender and a factor.

Plus it gives Stidham more time to grow if he’s the future.
 

axx

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The reason I'm still saying retirement is that he may not get the $$$ he's looking for from another team; and let's face it, the Patriots as currently constructed isn't winning the title... and it's not going to be easy to fix the offense.

I'd say that if he does come back, the odds are good that he's legitimately bad like Peyton and Favre's final seasons. That'd be a reason for him to come back, to show people that he can still defy time.
 

biff_hardbody

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IMO, the only plausible scenario for Brady playing next year for a different team would be for him to go with McDaniels to the Giants. I agree with what others have said about him not wanting to play outside of a few choice destinations. Moving to NYC keeps him essentially where he is now geographically and there are good offensive weapons in place.

I can't imagine Kraft wants to see Brady leave to play for the Maras though.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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IMO, the only plausible scenario for Brady playing next year for a different team would be for him to go with McDaniels to the Giants. I agree with what others have said about him not wanting to play outside of a few choice destinations. Moving to NYC keeps him essentially where he is now geographically and there are good offensive weapons in place.

I can't imagine Kraft wants to see Brady leave to play for the Maras though.
The Giants are not ready to win next year and I can't see them wasting 2 years of Daniel Jones' rookie deal to have him carry a clipboard for TB12. The Giants are all in on DJ. McDaniels might be the coach but it won't be with TB12 at QB.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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If Brady is hurt and the team knows he is hurt, then the chance he returns is much higher than if there is no injury there. If he was healthy this season and performed as he did, his time on Foxboro may be done.
 

The Needler

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Betonline just posted all their Tom Brady related bets (and there are many).

-200 for him to be on Pats roster week 1.

-200 Pats win the division with Brady next year (Brady must start game 1 for the Pats for action on the bet).
How can these both be the same odds?
 

JokersWildJIMED

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There really aren’t too many places that make sense for TB12...maybe Dallas, up to Jones and somehow they find the right coach and they decide to move on from Dak. Probably the team that makes the most sense are the Bears. Quality team, good defense, Nagy is thought to be a good offensive mind. Perhaps he and Brady mesh.
 

Hoya81

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What about the Raiders? They have a ton of cap space, can free up even more by releasing Carr and Gruden loves old QB’s.
 

Harry Hooper

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What about the Raiders? They have a ton of cap space, can free up even more by releasing Carr and Gruden loves old QB’s.
It's funny that the Raiders are leaving Brady's old neighborhood right now.
 

bosockboy

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What about the Raiders? They have a ton of cap space, can free up even more by releasing Carr and Gruden loves old QB’s.
Most likely by a lot. Gets to be the short term face of a new NFL city. Good offensive line, franchise running back, two great possession receivers and the draft picks and cap space to bolster the offense with a home run hitter.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Most likely by a lot. Gets to be the short term face of a new NFL city. Good offensive line, franchise running back, two great possession receivers and the draft picks and cap space to bolster the offense with a home run hitter.
And a dogshit defense to try to carry at 45 years old.

Dude wants to win another SB. The Raiders dont present the best option for that.
 

Big John

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Dallas would be interesting. He should retire, though.
As for the Pats, it's time to move on.
 

E5 Yaz

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Dallas would be interesting. He should retire, though.
As for the Pats, it's time to move on.
Dallas just sort of crossed my mind this morning. If Jerry doesn't want to pony up for Dak, it's not a stretch to think he'd get a kick out of tweaking Kraft
 

BigSoxFan

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Dallas just sort of crossed my mind this morning. If Jerry doesn't want to pony up for Dak, it's not a stretch to think he'd get a kick out of tweaking Kraft
I think it makes sense if Brady is on board. If Dak prices himself out of Dallas, probably a longshot at this point, then Brady is a perfect short term solution for them. They have a good OL, elite RB, good WR corp if Cooper returns, and a fixable defense.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Hearing Rodney, who does have some insight into both parties, talk it sure sounds that Brady is gone. Says the only way he stays is if BB personally appeals to him to stay. Equates it to Peyton going to an organization and having a say in designing an offense. I think he goes, and I think it is most likely Bears (longshot Cowboys).
 
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I guess I could be wrong, but I REALLY don’t understand why anyone thinks Brady would retire. He has been asked about this for YEARS, and constantly throughout this season and has replied, every time and convincingly, that his preference is to play. He doesn’t seem to by lying. He’s been pretty damn consistent on this. I know sports talk and ESPN and NFLN and twitter and speculation and all that crap, but BRADY SAYS HE WANTS TO PLAY. Maybe he wants to, ya know...play?
 

shoosh77

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Dallas, if McD also becomes the coach, would be a really interesting move. Tons of talent, weak division.

edit- thinking more, no state taxes is always a way to get paid more.
 

shoosh77

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Hey maybe the Chiefs!

Dallas is gonna dump Dak for Brady?
I’m not the first to say it (12 to Dallas) but it’s defensible. Dak is gonna want $35+ for 6 years or so. Is he that good? Does he give you a better chance at a title in the next two years vs Brady at say $25, who’s motivation would be jacked up to show it was him and not Bill who was the driving force?
 

djbayko

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I like -120 on that. For a few months' waiting. Where is Kyed getting those odds?
Who are you replying to? Mushy? Tom not retiring is -1000. No book in their right mind would have -120 right now. I don’t know what Kyed statement you’re referring to either.
 

InstaFace

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Who are you replying to? Mushy? Tom not retiring is -1000. No book in their right mind would have -120 right now. I don’t know what Kyed statement you’re referring to either.
E5Yaz's posted tweet shows -120 to both Yes and No on whether Brady will be on the pats roster for week 1.
 
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