2020 TB12: The Decision 2020

How Would You Feel if Brady Left?

  • Completely devastated

    Votes: 24 13.0%
  • Very disappointed but still got BB

    Votes: 84 45.4%
  • Hold my beer until we know our next QB

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Eh, this may turn out to be a plus

    Votes: 32 17.3%
  • Let the Stidham era begin!

    Votes: 16 8.6%

  • Total voters
    185
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JohnnyK

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One thing I could see influencing Tom's decision is the punishment on the videotaping. If the NFL goes totally overboard and takes the Patriots' first-round pick or a combination of high picks he might feel that they do not have the ammunition to contend for a title.

Personally, I still think he will be back. I don't see a better situation elsewhere.
 

HomeBrew1901

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One thing I could see influencing Tom's decision is the punishment on the videotaping. If the NFL goes totally overboard and takes the Patriots' first-round pick or a combination of high picks he might feel that they do not have the ammunition to contend for a title.

Personally, I still think he will be back. I don't see a better situation elsewhere.
I don't know... it depends on how confident he feels with the receiving corp and how much better they can be.

I can see the Titans being an attractive choice. Coach he knows well and has played with, fun environment and city, QB away from being legitimate contenders.
 

Gash Prex

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I'm really fine with whatever the decision at this point - we either get to start the post Brady era (which is coming now or within 1 year) or we reload and try 1 more time. I just don't want it to be a "bad" ending with Brady.
 

tims4wins

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Know why Brady isn’t going anywhere else? He’s have to attend the volunteer workouts. Which he hasn’t done for a few years now due to family. All of a sudden he is going to pivot? Unlikely.
 

Caspir

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Why would he have to do that? If he goes somewhere else, he'll do his bro trip to Montana with the people he wants to build a rapport with. I can't imagine a team like the Bears or Chargers are going to say, "Boy Tom, we really want you, but voluntary workouts are a deal breaker so we're going to give Dak $150m instead."

I still don't think he's going anywhere, but I also believe the stories that if he gets to FA, the Pats are done with him and will move on quickly to avoid Gronk redux.
 

tims4wins

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Why would he have to do that? If he goes somewhere else, he'll do his bro trip to Montana with the people he wants to build a rapport with. I can't imagine a team like the Bears or Chargers are going to say, "Boy Tom, we really want you, but voluntary workouts are a deal breaker so we're going to give Dak $150m instead."

I still don't think he's going anywhere, but I also believe the stories that if he gets to FA, the Pats are done with him and will move on quickly to avoid Gronk redux.
Because not only will it be building a rapport, but it will be learning a playbook.
 

BaseballJones

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Why would he have to do that? If he goes somewhere else, he'll do his bro trip to Montana with the people he wants to build a rapport with. I can't imagine a team like the Bears or Chargers are going to say, "Boy Tom, we really want you, but voluntary workouts are a deal breaker so we're going to give Dak $150m instead."

I still don't think he's going anywhere, but I also believe the stories that if he gets to FA, the Pats are done with him and will move on quickly to avoid Gronk redux.
The issue is financial. If he goes to free agency, his entire $13.5 million cap hit will be in place for 2020. Then you throw in a $25 million salary for 2020 on top of that and suddenly the starting QB is taking up $38.5 million in cap space. Just not tenable. So in order to get Brady offensive help, they need to reduce the cap hit, and the only way to do that is to sign him BEFORE he hits free agency. So if it gets to THAT point...he's gone.
 

BigJimEd

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The issue is financial. If he goes to free agency, his entire $13.5 million cap hit will be in place for 2020. Then you throw in a $25 million salary for 2020 on top of that and suddenly the starting QB is taking up $38.5 million in cap space. Just not tenable. So in order to get Brady offensive help, they need to reduce the cap hit, and the only way to do that is to sign him BEFORE he hits free agency. So if it gets to THAT point...he's gone.
Simply not true. We've been over this and there are ways to reduce cap hit after.
 

Super Nomario

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Simply not true. We've been over this and there are ways to reduce cap hit after.
This is going to be difficult this offseason because of the looming end of the CBA: https://overthecap.com/explaining-some-of-the-different-salary-cap-rules-for-2020/

In years past, they could squeeze things under for a year with a really low Y1 salary and a dramatic escalation after that. That can't be done this year because of the 30% rule (the salary can't increase more than 30% in a year). There are some things they can do, but fewer than usual, and it's not going to get things real low, or the outstanding money off the books.

My understanding is that if he waits til free agency, the $13.5 million is on the books for 2020. Is that not correct?
That's correct: View: https://twitter.com/patscap/status/1219668302114557952?s=20


Miguel: "It will either count $13.5M on 2020 cap or 6.75M on the 2020/2021 caps. Latter happens if Brady re-does his deal before it voids on 4PM March 18 "
 

reggiecleveland

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This is just such a bizarre take. Hes said 45 and he keeps repeating it.

Brady 3 months ago (October): "nothing has changed. I don’t know why it's being brought up."

Brady three weeks ago (December 23) in a "Today" interview: “I think I've said for a long time, my tune hasn't changed, I hope to continue playing."

Brady when asked about retiring after the Titans game (January 4th): "I would say it’s pretty unlikely, hopefully unlikely.”

Hell, this was Guerrero in November: “We talk about it all the time. Every year he just adds another year. He goes in and he’s like, ‘Guys, I feel so good still. I think I am going to go till 45.’ I am like, ‘OK.’ Now he’s like, ‘Alex, I think I can go like 46 or 47.’”

If he retires, it would be a complete about face from everything hes stated for quite some time.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZwFh1du7ts
 

BaseballJones

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This is going to be difficult this offseason because of the looming end of the CBA: https://overthecap.com/explaining-some-of-the-different-salary-cap-rules-for-2020/

In years past, they could squeeze things under for a year with a really low Y1 salary and a dramatic escalation after that. That can't be done this year because of the 30% rule (the salary can't increase more than 30% in a year). There are some things they can do, but fewer than usual, and it's not going to get things real low, or the outstanding money off the books.


That's correct: View: https://twitter.com/patscap/status/1219668302114557952?s=20


Miguel: "It will either count $13.5M on 2020 cap or 6.75M on the 2020/2021 caps. Latter happens if Brady re-does his deal before it voids on 4PM March 18 "
So I was right. Ok that's what I thought.
 

BigJimEd

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Yes, the 13.5M will be there but half of that is there already. That doesn't mean they can't still structure the contract to lush things off. We are talking less than $7M

The final year does change some things with salary but there are plenty other ways around it. I haven't seen anything that says they can't do what they just did with voidable years. Large SB with a couple years that automatically void and you are in the same situation. They could also do some things with roster bonus.
It really wouldn't be difficult if they agree on terms.

Is Brady's cap number going to be super low? No, not unless takes a big discount but that was the case when they gave him the money last year.

Whether they do it before or after the bonus date, they are hoping to need to push the can down the road if they want to keep the cap number low.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Simply not true. We've been over this and there are ways to reduce cap hit after.
There is no way to reduce his 2020 cap hit, if he signs after 3/18, to less than about 14.7 million. That would be the absolute floor. And, it's not close to realistic because it would mean that he gets essentially zero signing bonus.

I think the best way to think about it is this. If he extends before 3/18 there are probably ways to get him paid what he wants and to get him in around a $20 million cap number (and kick the can a little longer). If he signs after 3/18, it is theoretically possible to do that but it starts to get much much harder. My guess is we'd be looking at a number that is closer to $25 or $26 million for 2020.
 

Super Nomario

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The final year does change some things with salary but there are plenty other ways around it. I haven't seen anything that says they can't do what they just did with voidable years. Large SB with a couple years that automatically void and you are in the same situation. They could also do some things with roster bonus.
It really wouldn't be difficult if they agree on terms.

Is Brady's cap number going to be super low? No, not unless takes a big discount but that was the case when they gave him the money last year.

Whether they do it before or after the bonus date, they are hoping to need to push the can down the road if they want to keep the cap number low.
I agree with all of this, but that's why I think the March 18th date is important. They do not have a ton of 2020 cap space considering all the other FA. The team has every incentive to shenaniganize the contract as much as possible to get the 2020 hit as low as they can. There are limits to that, in terms of what the team is willing to do as far as future hits, in terms of what Brady will accept, and in terms of what is legal under the CBA. But they are going to want to get that number as low as realistically possible. One of the best ways to do that is to get an extension done by 3/18 and push $6.75 MM to the 2021 cap. It's unlikely to me that they can reclaim nearly that much cap space in deal shenanigans if that 3/18 deadline passes.

Yes, the 13.5M will be there but half of that is there already. That doesn't mean they can't still structure the contract to lush things off. We are talking less than $7M
$7 MM is a real chunk of change! Dont'a Hightower is the only player that they can cut to save more than that amount of space, though Sanu ($6.5 MM) is close. Only five players have 2020 cap hits greater than $7 MM.
 

BigJimEd

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Sure $7M is a real number but not terrible difficult to push off.

If you think you're trying to get a cap number of around 15 than good luck to you. That's only adding on 1.5M so your pushing everything into future. Seems a bit extreme to me. A more realistic to me of 20-25M cap number is doable before or after.

What contract are you thinking of?
 

Harry Hooper

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So, do the Pats upfront give Brady two offers: one pre-Mar18 version and one post-Mar18 version, or do they keep him in the dark about what a post-Mar18 version would look like?

Of course, I still think the major prickly pear in this negotiation will be contract length.
 

Super Nomario

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Sure $7M is a real number but not terrible difficult to push off.
My expectation is that they will try to push off everything as much as possible anyway. Last year they gave Brady and Brown funny-money deals, pushed money on Mason and Gilmore's deals, and made small moves to save money with Thomas, Bennett, and Gordon. I expect they will have to be similarly aggressive in 2020 given their constraints. So I don't think there's going to be an "extra" $6.75 MM they can clear up if they sign Brady after 3/18; I think they're going to wring out every drop of water they can regardless. So that money will be lost.

If you think you're trying to get a cap number of around 15 than good luck to you. That's only adding on 1.5M so your pushing everything into future. Seems a bit extreme to me. A more realistic to me of 20-25M cap number is doable before or after.

What contract are you thinking of?
I buy your $20 - 25 range, but only before 3/18. If it's after and that money accelerates, I don't think it does anything to what they can get Brady down to (and thus his hit would be $6.75 MM higher). If he hits FA, I think he's gone unless Yee has completely misjudged the market.
 

BigJimEd

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I buy your $20 - 25 range, but only before 3/18. If it's after and that money accelerates, I don't think it does anything to what they can get Brady down to (and thus his hit would be $6.75 MM higher). If he hits FA, I think he's gone unless Yee has completely misjudged the market.
Yeah, if Brady and Yee are looking for Pats to match other offers or come close than no they are unlikely to get that low and good chance Brady leaves.

I just think that clause kicking in is a minor factor in any possible deal. They can work around that if they truly want.

People seem to forget they still have to count for that money in a restructure and have to abide by the final year. I have yet to see a proposal that incorporates that money into it.

Actual free agency and teams recruiting him is a whole another world though.
So I agree that date us significant but more in a symbolic sense then the actual bonus issue.


And I do think there is a pretty good chance he's gone.
 
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lexrageorge

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Yeah, if Brady and Yee are looking for Pats to match other offers or come close than no they are unlikely to get that low and good chance Brady leaves.

I just think that clause kicking in is a minor factor in any possible deal. They can work around that if they truly want.

People seem to forget they still have to count for that money in a restructure and have to abide by the final year. I have yet to see a proposal that incorporates that money into it.

Actual free agency and teams recruiting him is a whole another world though.
So I agree that date us significant but more in a symbolic sense then the actual bonus issue.


And I do think there is a pretty good chance he's gone.
The cap hit matters more than you realize.

Pre 3/18, the "dead" cap hit can be reduced to under $7M. Post 3/18, it stays at $13.5M, with no chance of reduction. That $6.75M is significant. There are only so many ways to push money out of 2020 into future years. The cap is definitely not crap; at some point, the bill comes due.

Also, can you clarify what you mean by the bolded? Because Miguel and other salary cap gurus have made the salary cap implications of a Brady restructure very clear. In a new 2+ year deal, the $13.5M gets spread over 2020 and 2021. Any new money has to be accounted for, but that happens regardless of when Brady signs. The issue is whether the Pats have an additional $6.75M of cap space to play with. Which again, that's not nothing.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I wish we had a little more information on when the AB grievance will be heard and decided. It may be harder to get it done now that he seems to otherwise be occupied with other legal troubles.

I kind of think it might matter. Knowing whether or not they have cap relief can inform what they can do with Brady and how important 3/18 is.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The cap hit matters more than you realize.

Pre 3/18, the "dead" cap hit can be reduced to under $7M. Post 3/18, it stays at $13.5M, with no chance of reduction. That $6.75M is significant. There are only so many ways to push money out of 2020 into future years. The cap is definitely not crap; at some point, the bill comes due.

Also, can you clarify what you mean by the bolded? Because Miguel and other salary cap gurus have made the salary cap implications of a Brady restructure very clear. In a new 2+ year deal, the $13.5M gets spread over 2020 and 2021. Any new money has to be accounted for, but that happens regardless of when Brady signs. The issue is whether the Pats have an additional $6.75M of cap space to play with. Which again, that's not nothing.
This is right. I've been saying all along that the move to make is give him 3yrs/75 million with 50mil guaranteed and the third year is voidable. If you do that, you can spread that 13.5mil cap hit over the 3 years. So, if they sign him prior to March 18th, his cap hits look like this:

$29.5mil (2020)
$29.5mil (2021)
$4.5mil (2022) assuming he's done at that point.

You could also spread a signing bonus around instead of paying him all salary, but that's just kicking the can further down the road. Although if there is someone they have their eyes on to sign in free agency this offseason, maybe you do that.

If you sign him to the same deal after 3/18, then it looks like this initially:

$38.5mil (2020)
$25.0mil (2021)
0 (2022)

If your goal is to make one final run with Brady in 2020 and 2021, then the 1st option is the only one that's feasible. If this gets to March 18th and he isn't signed here, he's either gone, or he's crawling back here because he couldn't get any offers he liked elsewhere, which would shift the leverage back to the Pats, but I find that extremely risky and unlikely, and if he does come crawling back, you'd need to pay him $16mil or less in 2020 to keep him under the same cap of $29.5 if you just signed him prior to March 18th. If you don't sign him prior to free agency, they should run with Stidham, win 3-5 games next year (that schedule is ludicrous) and come back with a high draft pick the following year to reload.
 

BusRaker

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Luckily we should be a little better off this year $$ wise if we can get some of our draft talent in the 53 from our 12 picks

  • 1st round – Pick 23
  • 2nd round – Pick 87
  • 2 projected 3rd round compensatory picks
  • 4th round (Chicago)
  • 6th round (Houston)
  • 6th round (Denver)
  • 2 projected 6th round compensatory picks
  • 7th round (Seattle)
  • 7th round (Eagles)
  • 7th round (Falcons)
 

BigSoxFan

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Luckily we should be a little better off this year $$ wise if we can get some of our draft talent in the 53 from our 12 picks

  • 1st round – Pick 23
  • 2nd round – Pick 87
  • 2 projected 3rd round compensatory picks
  • 4th round (Chicago)
  • 6th round (Houston)
  • 6th round (Denver)
  • 2 projected 6th round compensatory picks
  • 7th round (Seattle)
  • 7th round (Eagles)
  • 7th round (Falcons)
Quick nit. #87 is a 3rd rounder. I’m still triggered by the Sanu trade.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Quick nit. #87 is a 3rd rounder. I’m still triggered by the Sanu trade.
You have to also account for the 1st rounder we are going to lose when Goodell declares that BB "was probably generally aware that something may have happened with the advanced scout taping signals in Cincy, potentially even before it happened, or something."
 

BigJimEd

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Also, can you clarify what you mean by the bolded?
I simply mean that the money is to be paid no matter what. I've seen some proposals here and everywhere that don't account for it.
Pre 3/18, the "dead" cap hit can be reduced to under $7M. Post 3/18, it stays at $13.5M, with no chance of reduction. That $6.75M is significant. There are only so many ways to push money out of 2020 into future years. The cap is definitely not crap; at some point, the bill comes due.
yes. This is is kind of my point. Some seem to want to push everything down the road. I don't see them doing that. Some, sure but not all.

The 30% rule applies to Salary but not everything paid it is counted as salary. Signing bonus for one but there are other types of bonuses as well. Teams used these before to get around this rule.

So in DotB example above of 2 for 50 in new money.
$15M in signing bonus spread over 3 years. 11M salary in year 1. 30% increase gives 14.3M in salary year 2. $9.7 M bonus due 1st day of league year 2. Cap hits look like this:

Year 1 : 13.5 hit from previous + 5M SB + 11 salary = 29.5

Year 2: 5M + 14.3 + 9.7 = 29M

Year 3: 5M in dead money from SB
 

Super Nomario

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I simply mean that the money is to be paid no matter what. I've seen some proposals here and everywhere that don't account for it.
yes. This is is kind of my point. Some seem to want to push everything down the road. I don't see them doing that. Some, sure but not all.

The 30% rule applies to Salary but not everything paid it is counted as salary. Signing bonus for one but there are other types of bonuses as well. Teams used these before to get around this rule.

So in DotB example above of 2 for 50 in new money.
$15M in signing bonus spread over 3 years. 11M salary in year 1. 30% increase gives 14.3M in salary year 2. $9.7 M bonus due 1st day of league year 2. Cap hits look like this:

Year 1 : 13.5 hit from previous + 5M SB + 11 salary = 29.5

Year 2: 5M + 14.3 + 9.7 = 29M

Year 3: 5M in dead money from SB
You can spread the option bonuses over two years, FWIW (so put half of that $9.7 MM in Y3) ... but option bonuses count as salary for purposes of the 30% rule. Roster bonuses, too. So this wouldn't work.

You can still reduce the Y1 hit by converting more of the salary to signing bonus, but then you're guaranteeing more money in Y2 and Y3. Or make it technically a four or five year deal with voids or unlikely options that led you spread the bonus out more - again, that just kicks the can down the road. There's also some stuff that can be with incentives, though there have been new restrictions on that, and Brady might not be amenable to much of it. And obviously, another way to reduce the Y1 hit is by signing the deal prior to 3/18.

This is right. I've been saying all along that the move to make is give him 3yrs/75 million with 50mil guaranteed and the third year is voidable. If you do that, you can spread that 13.5mil cap hit over the 3 years. So, if they sign him prior to March 18th, his cap hits look like this:=
I don't think this is right. This money is paid. It's scheduled to accrue over the next two seasons. The only thing that can happen (other than divided over 2020 and 2021 as current scheduled) is it can all accelerate into the 2020 cap if Brady's deal voids. They can spread any future signing bonus money over three (or four or five) years.
 

BigJimEd

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As was pointed out, Brady might not exactly be amenable to incentives given how it worked out last time (he went 0 for 5)
These aren't incentives. They are bonuses and can be fully guaranteed for injury and/or skill

Besides they gave him a raise for basically no reason last offseason. Not that he didn't deserve it.
 

lexrageorge

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I simply mean that the money is to be paid no matter what. I've seen some proposals here and everywhere that don't account for it.
yes. This is is kind of my point. Some seem to want to push everything down the road. I don't see them doing that. Some, sure but not all.

The 30% rule applies to Salary but not everything paid it is counted as salary. Signing bonus for one but there are other types of bonuses as well. Teams used these before to get around this rule.

So in DotB example above of 2 for 50 in new money.
$15M in signing bonus spread over 3 years. 11M salary in year 1. 30% increase gives 14.3M in salary year 2. $9.7 M bonus due 1st day of league year 2. Cap hits look like this:

Year 1 : 13.5 hit from previous + 5M SB + 11 salary = 29.5

Year 2: 5M + 14.3 + 9.7 = 29M

Year 3: 5M in dead money from SB
Y1 and Y2 should be as follows:

Y1: $6.75M from previous + $5M bonus + $11M salary = 23.25M

Y2: 6.75 + 5 + 14.3 + 9.7 = 35.75M

Y3: 5M dead cap hit.

Basically, a restructure causes that 13.5 to get spread over 2020/21. Now, whether that 9.7M in Y2 can be given and accounted for in the way above is an open question, so it's not clear if the above is even doable.
 

BigJimEd

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Completion bonuses aren't an incentive?
No, It's not for pass completions.
They are for "completing" your contract and can be guaranteed for skill and injury. They are similar to a reporting bonus. I believe they are generally due when a player reports to camp so my timing may be off. Basically if Brady doesn't retire after year 1, then he would receive the bonus and they are not subject to the 30% rule.
 

axx

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Had to look it up, and Carr's contract is definitely cutable/tradable. So I do think that if he's serious about leaving, Vegas makes a ton of sense. Does make me wonder if him meeting Davis at the fight was not a smokescreen at all.

Meanwhile
I wonder how much Tom's PR staff paid for that.
 

brandonchristensen

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If he has to leave, I guess the Raiders works for me simply because I’ll be able to see him.

But yeah, fuck the Raiders.
 

snowmanny

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Raiders make a lot of sense. From his point of view a good OL, a decent chance to make the playoffs and a reasonably glamorous spot. From their point of view a huge marketing draw as they move to a new city and an upgrade at QB.
 

DJnVa

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Raiders make a lot of sense. From his point of view a good OL, a decent chance to make the playoffs and a reasonably glamorous spot. From their point of view a huge marketing draw as they move to a new city and an upgrade at QB.
I'm not trying to make the argument that Carr is better than Brady, because DUH, but Carr had a QB rating over 100 last season and completed over 70% of his passes and he's 28. How big is the upgrade if Brady's is moving to a new offense and has no "circle of trust" with anyone he'll be throwing to out there?
 

snowmanny

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I'm not trying to make the argument that Carr is better than Brady, because DUH, but Carr had a QB rating over 100 last season and completed over 70% of his passes and he's 28. How big is the upgrade if Brady's is moving to a new offense and has no "circle of trust" with anyone he'll be throwing to out there?
That's fair and I like Carr. It really depends on what Gruden thinks of Carr and/or whether the team wants a splash going into Vegas. Not every team is thinking 100% about winning, especially about winning five years from now. If I wanted to maximize my chances of a playoff run next year I'd take Brady over Carr but long-term of course I'd take Carr.

Your point was about the team's perspective not Brady's, but Brady of course is going to have the"circle of trust" problem no matter where he goes.
 

nighthob

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I'm not trying to make the argument that Carr is better than Brady, because DUH, but Carr had a QB rating over 100 last season and completed over 70% of his passes and he's 28. How big is the upgrade if Brady's is moving to a new offense and has no "circle of trust" with anyone he'll be throwing to out there?
Unless the thinking is Brady plus whatever they can get for Carr in trade.
 

BaseballJones

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If Brady does leave, there's no doubt that the Patriots should at least look into signing Carr. He'd drive us crazy at times, but he's got lots of room for improvement, has all the physical tools to be successful, and is just 28. No idea what he'd cost - probably a pretty good chunk of change.

EDIT: My bad...I didn't realize he wasn't a free agent. I thought that's one reason why the Raiders would look into Brady. I don't know that I'd *trade* for Carr (I guess, depending on the price). I thought he'd be on the open market. Maybe a trade wouldn't be bad though. Interesting situation to be sure.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
If Brady does leave, there's no doubt that the Patriots should at least look into signing Carr. He'd drive us crazy at times, but he's got lots of room for improvement, has all the physical tools to be successful, and is just 28. No idea what he'd cost - probably a pretty good chunk of change.

EDIT: My bad...I didn't realize he wasn't a free agent. I thought that's one reason why the Raiders would look into Brady. I don't know that I'd *trade* for Carr (I guess, depending on the price). I thought he'd be on the open market. Maybe a trade wouldn't be bad though. Interesting situation to be sure.
Carr's contract is extremely easy for the Raiders to get out of if they wanted to. They would have a $5 million cap charge, but save $16.5 million by releasing or trading him.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
17,184
Washington
The Raiders would be crazy to sign Brady. Carr is goofy AF, but he's competent to very good. How much longer is Brady going to be good to great? One year? Two? They need to get Carr some WR help and work on the defense, not fuck around with integrating an aging superstar into a new system and who probably won't be around for very long anyway.
 
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