Tompa Bay: Tom Tom club

DJnVa

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No RAC guys? Their two touchdown passes were on plays where the receiver caught a short pass and fought like hell to gain the extra yards necessary to get into the end zone.
That doesn't mean that they are consistent YAC guys. I once saw Pokey Reese make an error.

Tampa is 19th in the league in total YAC. NE is 21st. Per catch, they are 26th. They are 2nd from bottom on broken tackle on receptions and dead last (by a fair amount) on receptions/broken tackles.
 
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BigSoxFan

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The Tampa offense is weird. Brady's deep ball has been terrible the last couple weeks (after being good early in the year). The run game is boom-or-bust. They don't really have YAC guys so the short passes go nowhere. And it seems like they don't have an intermediate passing game at all. That's where Brady should be eating, but instead it's like everything is a deep bomb attempt or a two-yard pass. Definitely not clicking. On the other hand, they are 7-4 so it's not a disaster or anything.

EDIT: re Orlovsky's post above, some folks on Twitter are double-checking and finding a lot more motion than what he was saying.

It's also worth noting re: last night that the Rams have arguably the best defense in football this year. That DL is stacked and the Bucs were missing Marpet again.
The Rams defense is incredible to watch. Their DL penetrates at will, their LBs are solid, and their secondary is great. I’m going to laugh watching Cam against these guys in a few weeks.
 

BaseballJones

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That doesn't mean that they are consistent YAC guys.

Tampa is 19th in the league in total YAC. NE is 21st. Per catch, they are 26th. They are 2nd from bottom on broken tackle on receptions and dead last (by a fair amount) on receptions/broken tackles.
I believe you and SN. I'm just pointing out that TB can thank YAC for those two TD passes, because they were hard-earned by the receivers running after the catch.
 

BaseballJones

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The Rams defense is incredible to watch. Their DL penetrates at will, their LBs are solid, and their secondary is great. I’m going to laugh watching Cam against these guys in a few weeks.
Laugh? Or cry?

The only solution is to run it right down their throats and not stop doing it.
 

RedOctober3829

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The Tampa offense is weird. Brady's deep ball has been terrible the last couple weeks (after being good early in the year). The run game is boom-or-bust. They don't really have YAC guys so the short passes go nowhere. And it seems like they don't have an intermediate passing game at all. That's where Brady should be eating, but instead it's like everything is a deep bomb attempt or a two-yard pass. Definitely not clicking. On the other hand, they are 7-4 so it's not a disaster or anything.

EDIT: re Orlovsky's post above, some folks on Twitter are double-checking and finding a lot more motion than what he was saying.

It's also worth noting re: last night that the Rams have arguably the best defense in football this year. That DL is stacked and the Bucs were missing Marpet again.
Their running backs can't catch the football either. That was a huge component of Brady's offensive success in New England is having a reliable RB to hit with swing passes and check downs.

They are 7-4, but the combined record of the teams they've beaten is 31-41 and that is with Green Bay(7-3) and Las Vegas(6-4) in that column. The Chargers game and Giants game were very close calls albeit wins. The combined record of the teams they've lost to are 28-12(Saints twice, Bears, and Rams). They're a decent team, but it seems like they've feasted on the bad teams and been so-so against the good teams. They should finish with a record of 11-5 or 10-6, but they'll be on the road for the entire playoffs.
 

DJnVa

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I believe you and SN. I'm just pointing out that TB can thank YAC for those two TD passes, because they were hard-earned by the receivers running after the catch.
Okay. That doesn't change the point of the post that you were referring to.
 

Super Nomario

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Laugh? Or cry?

The only solution is to run it right down their throats and not stop doing it.
The Rams are really good against the run, too ... not sure this is going to go any better than throwing the ball.

Their running backs can't catch the football either. That was a huge component of Brady's offensive success in New England is having a reliable RB to hit with swing passes and check downs.
The RBs have some dropsies, but the bigger issue is those plays have been incredibly inefficient even when they've caught it. Ronald Jones is one of two qualified receivers (out of 120+ league-wide) averaging fewer than 5 yards per reception; Fournette is bottom-10 with 6.4. Brady has completed 65 passes to RBs this year, almost a quarter of his completions (and more than 20% of his pass attempts), and he's averaging 5.7 per completion and 4.0 yards per target ... that's so bad. For comparison, Harry and Sanu were at about 4.5 yards per target down the stretch in 2019. It just seems like a ton of the offense is look for the big play and if it's not there dump it down for basically nothing. They need more concepts that give Brady options in the intermediate part of the field. The O is very boom-and-bust in all phases (including Brady) and it needs something to give it some consistency.
 

RedOctober3829

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The Rams are really good against the run, too ... not sure this is going to go any better than throwing the ball.


The RBs have some dropsies, but the bigger issue is those plays have been incredibly inefficient even when they've caught it. Ronald Jones is one of two qualified receivers (out of 120+ league-wide) averaging fewer than 5 yards per reception; Fournette is bottom-10 with 6.4. Brady has completed 65 passes to RBs this year, almost a quarter of his completions (and more than 20% of his pass attempts), and he's averaging 5.7 per completion and 4.0 yards per target ... that's so bad. For comparison, Harry and Sanu were at about 4.5 yards per target down the stretch in 2019. It just seems like a ton of the offense is look for the big play and if it's not there dump it down for basically nothing. They need more concepts that give Brady options in the intermediate part of the field. The O is very boom-and-bust in all phases (including Brady) and it needs something to give it some consistency.
It's almost like running Arians' system wasn't the right move. Oh wait, everyone was saying this from Day 1.
 

Super Nomario

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It's almost like running Arians' system wasn't the right move. Oh wait, everyone was saying this from Day 1.
It hasn't been a failure like Peyton running Kubiak's system, it's just been very inconsistent. I don't think it's a lost cause, but they haven't played up to expectations for sure. After the Chiefs game, they play four games against bottom-10 pass defenses by EPA (Falcons twice, Detroit, Minnesota), so they're probably gonna look good in those games, but I don't think we're going to know if they fixed anything until the playoffs.
 

soxhop411

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I dont know Bruce... why don't you let the guy who is more successful than you call the shots instead of throwing him under the fucking bus?
View: https://twitter.com/NFLSTROUD/status/1331284516220985344

#GoBucs

coach Bruce Arians says Tom Brady doesn't have a confidence problem but at times there may be a lack of trust because of the lack of continuity. He is calling some of his own plays, or picking them, from the sidelines between series.
 

Van Everyman

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As for the dump off problem, how do they not utilize Gronk for at least some of that? I get that he’s not 2011-2017 Gronk anymore who can drag guys 12 yards after the catch but why keep trying to hit him down the seam when he can still use his size to get you 8 yard chunks?

To me, it just seems like Brady and Arians both have these delusions about what their team should be—some variation on Air Brady—instead of utilizing the pretty incredible talent they actually do have. Especially given the problems with the line, this shouldn’t be so difficult and yet ...

It is almost like a diametric opposite from Belichick who despite being seen as some defensive mastermind has rarely forced any kind of canned “philosophy” on either side of the ball and instead simply adjusted the approach to his team’s strengths (and weaknesses) and focused on building culture and execution.
 

Super Nomario

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Well then I guess there's no hope against them.
Not saying that, just saying that whatever the solution(s) is/are, it's not going to be as trivial as running the ball continually against a defensive front averaging less than 4.0 YPC against. It is definitely going to be tough sledding; D will need to show up in a much bigger way than it has.
 

E5 Yaz

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We discussed this in the week's game thread last night, but there sure seems to be a disconnect between Arians and Brady
 

Garshaparra

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I love Brady, but it seems trust/continuity is a bigger thing with him than any other QB I've read about.
During the 1st half of last night's game, one of the commentators was gushing about how Brady loves to spread the ball around - "He doesn't care who he's passing to!".

Uh, I don't know what Tom Brady you've been watching, but he definitely cares. Chemistry with the receivers, finding openings late in a route during a scramble, keeping drops to a minimum all super matter to him. If you leave him out to dry or drop a couple, you're iced out.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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During the 1st half of last night's game, one of the commentators was gushing about how Brady loves to spread the ball around - "He doesn't care who he's passing to!".

Uh, I don't know what Tom Brady you've been watching, but he definitely cares. Chemistry with the receivers, finding openings late in a route during a scramble, keeping drops to a minimum all super matter to him. If you leave him out to dry or drop a couple, you're iced out.
I mean, yes and no.

For years, Brady was known for connecting with 10+ players throughout the game and just finding the open player. Chemistry feels like more of a mini-camp WR thing than a gameplan thing.
 

BaseballJones

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Brady this year is on pace for: 407-630 (64.7%), 4,298 yds, 6.8 y/a, 36 td, 13 int, 95.0 rating

Everyone is crapping all over him on WEEI today, but it's not like he's never had bad games before. His passer rating of 95.0...he's had 8 seasons where it's been worse than that (2004, 2005, 2019, 2006, 2013, 2001, 2003, 2002). His INT% of 2.1...he's had 7 seasons where its been worse (2002, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2005, 2001, 2004). His TD% of 5.8%...he's only had a better number 6 times (2007, 2010, 2016, 2011, 2004, 2015). His completion percentage of 64.7...he's only been better 7 times (2007, 2016, 2017, 2010, 2018, 2009, 2011).

His career #s are:
- Comp %: 63.9 (2020: 64.7%)
- Y/A: 7.4 (2020: 6.8)
- TD%: 5.4% (2020: 5.8%)
- INT%: 1.8% (2020: 2.1%)
- Passer rating: 96.9 (2020: 95.0)

And if you only look at his career from 2007 to the present:
- Comp %: 64.7% (2020: 64.7%)
- Y/A: 7.6 (2020: 6.8)
- TD%: 5.7% (2020: 5.8%)
- INT%: 1.5% (2020: 2.1%)
- Passer rating: 100.5 (2020: 95.0)

So his 2020 is basically an average Tom Brady season over the course of his entire career. And if we want to limit it to when he became a statistical god (2007 onward), he's below that, but not crazy below it.
 

Van Everyman

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Not that this stuff isn't horse race horseshit, but there are also these kinds of stories and tweets now beginning to pop up about him being a sore loser (just as we saw about Belichick when he was talking about the cap stuff a few weeks ago):

https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/tom-brady-no-longer-getting-a-pass-for-his-bush-league-antics/amp/
View: https://twitter.com/ShannonSharpe/status/1331091909792604161?s=20


It's funny: at the beginning of the year, it felt like Brady was demonstrating (or trying to demonstrate) that he was more important than Belichick to the success of the NEP. But now? It's kind of feeling like they needed each other -- just as most people suspected all along.
 

Euclis20

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I mean, yes and no.

For years, Brady was known for connecting with 10+ players throughout the game and just finding the open player. Chemistry feels like more of a mini-camp WR thing than a gameplan thing.
I don't think this has really been the case since before Moss. Remarkably, in 2003 and 2004 no Patriot caught as many as 60 passes in a season. Once he got some actual pro-bowlers, that changed.
 

Euclis20

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Brady this year is on pace for: 407-630 (64.7%), 4,298 yds, 6.8 y/a, 36 td, 13 int, 95.0 rating

Everyone is crapping all over him on WEEI today, but it's not like he's never had bad games before. His passer rating of 95.0...he's had 8 seasons where it's been worse than that (2004, 2005, 2019, 2006, 2013, 2001, 2003, 2002). His INT% of 2.1...he's had 7 seasons where its been worse (2002, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2005, 2001, 2004). His TD% of 5.8%...he's only had a better number 6 times (2007, 2010, 2016, 2011, 2004, 2015). His completion percentage of 64.7...he's only been better 7 times (2007, 2016, 2017, 2010, 2018, 2009, 2011).

His career #s are:
- Comp %: 63.9 (2020: 64.7%)
- Y/A: 7.4 (2020: 6.8)
- TD%: 5.4% (2020: 5.8%)
- INT%: 1.8% (2020: 2.1%)
- Passer rating: 96.9 (2020: 95.0)

And if you only look at his career from 2007 to the present:
- Comp %: 64.7% (2020: 64.7%)
- Y/A: 7.6 (2020: 6.8)
- TD%: 5.7% (2020: 5.8%)
- INT%: 1.5% (2020: 2.1%)
- Passer rating: 100.5 (2020: 95.0)

So his 2020 is basically an average Tom Brady season over the course of his entire career. And if we want to limit it to when he became a statistical god (2007 onward), he's below that, but not crazy below it.
All good context, but it has to be noted that the last decade has brought a sea change for passing stats. The fact that Brady is on pace for more interceptions and a higher interception rate than any year since 2009 matters, as that was an entirely different era for passing. He's thrown the 5th most interceptions in 2020, which is significant.
 

loshjott

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Not that this stuff isn't horse race horseshit, but there are also these kinds of stories and tweets now beginning to pop up about him being a sore loser (just as we saw about Belichick when he was talking about the cap stuff a few weeks ago):

https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/tom-brady-no-longer-getting-a-pass-for-his-bush-league-antics/amp/
View: https://twitter.com/ShannonSharpe/status/1331091909792604161?s=20


It's funny: at the beginning of the year, it felt like Brady was demonstrating (or trying to demonstrate) that he was more important than Belichick to the success of the NEP. But now? It's kind of feeling like they needed each other -- just as most people suspected all along.
Wait, quoting the NY Post and Shannon Sharpe for objective takes on Tom Brady?
 

BaseballJones

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All good context, but it has to be noted that the last decade has brought a sea change for passing stats. The fact that Brady is on pace for more interceptions and a higher interception rate than any year since 2009 matters, as that was an entirely different era for passing. He's thrown the 5th most interceptions in 2020, which is significant.
He's also on pace for the 3rd most TDs of his career. At age 43.
 

Super Nomario

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I don't think this has really been the case since before Moss. Remarkably, in 2003 and 2004 no Patriot caught as many as 60 passes in a season. Once he got some actual pro-bowlers, that changed.
It's been true basically in proportion to the quality of his receivers. It's not rocket science. When Brady's had a bunch of good receivers, he spreads the ball around. When he's only got a couple, he feeds those guys. At the end of year, you invariably see the better receivers got more targets and the worse receivers less. I'm not sure how else you'd want to do it.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Brady this year is on pace for: 407-630 (64.7%), 4,298 yds, 6.8 y/a, 36 td, 13 int, 95.0 rating

Everyone is crapping all over him on WEEI today, but it's not like he's never had bad games before. His passer rating of 95.0...he's had 8 seasons where it's been worse than that (2004, 2005, 2019, 2006, 2013, 2001, 2003, 2002). His INT% of 2.1...he's had 7 seasons where its been worse (2002, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2005, 2001, 2004). His TD% of 5.8%...he's only had a better number 6 times (2007, 2010, 2016, 2011, 2004, 2015). His completion percentage of 64.7...he's only been better 7 times (2007, 2016, 2017, 2010, 2018, 2009, 2011).

His career #s are:
- Comp %: 63.9 (2020: 64.7%)
- Y/A: 7.4 (2020: 6.8)
- TD%: 5.4% (2020: 5.8%)
- INT%: 1.8% (2020: 2.1%)
- Passer rating: 96.9 (2020: 95.0)

And if you only look at his career from 2007 to the present:
- Comp %: 64.7% (2020: 64.7%)
- Y/A: 7.6 (2020: 6.8)
- TD%: 5.7% (2020: 5.8%)
- INT%: 1.5% (2020: 2.1%)
- Passer rating: 100.5 (2020: 95.0)

So his 2020 is basically an average Tom Brady season over the course of his entire career. And if we want to limit it to when he became a statistical god (2007 onward), he's below that, but not crazy below it.
Stats can tell you whatever you want, but this isn't career average Tom Brady. A QB Rating of 95 in 2001 would put him at #2 / #3, in 2007 it would have been #7 / #8 in the league in 2020 it's #17 / #18.
 

BaseballJones

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Stats can't tell you "whatever you want". They can tell a variety of things, but not whatever you want.

Right now, Tampa's 11th in pass yards per game, 10th in pass TD%, 4th in pass TD, while being 21st in rush yards per attempt, and 26th in rush yards per game.

And with all that, Tampa is #6 in the NFL in points scored per game, averaging 29.1 points a game. So their offense - including their pass offense - is doing just fine.

They just scored 24 points against a team that averaged 18.6 points per game allowed before last night.
 

Super Nomario

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Jon Ledyard points the finger at the Bucs' first-down offense:

The Bucs are 30th in the NFL with a 38.7 percent first down success rate, meaning that 61.3 percent of the time, they don’t pick up even four yards on first-and-ten. Only the Broncos and Chargers are worse on first down.
This squares with what I've seen ... they are lacking like a bread-and-butter offense. Too many ineffective runs, too many ineffective passes to the RB, not enough scheming intermediate passes. Basically reduces the offense to whether they hit chunk plays. They're definitely capable of that (even with Brady's recent deep ball struggles) but it's tough sledding to rely on it all the time.
 
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Cam's stats were pretty misleading the other day. He doesn't process plays quickly enough, is inconsistent with his accuracy (and mechanics) and his arm strength suggests whatever shoulder injuries he's suffered continue to be in play to some degree. Brady has struggled mightily throwing deep in the Bucs O, but there's no denying Arians has been a bit of a clown show.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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Cam's stats were pretty misleading the other day. He doesn't process plays quickly enough, is inconsistent with his accuracy (and mechanics) and his arm strength suggests whatever shoulder injuries he's suffered continue to be in play to some degree. Brady has struggled mightily throwing deep in the Bucs O, but there's no denying Arians has been a bit of a clown show.
Plus Fournette is terrible as is Jones as a receiver
 

Harry Hooper

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He's obviously shelved now, but I was surprised no team like the Bucs traded for Burkhead at the deadline.
 

DeadlySplitter

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aside: blaming anyone for not shaking hands during a pandemic is very ignorant.

of course everyone is chomping at the bit to criticize Brady, they've been waiting for the cliff to hit for 8 years now.
 

scottyno

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Cam's stats were pretty misleading the other day. He doesn't process plays quickly enough, is inconsistent with his accuracy (and mechanics) and his arm strength suggests whatever shoulder injuries he's suffered continue to be in play to some degree. Brady has struggled mightily throwing deep in the Bucs O, but there's no denying Arians has been a bit of a clown show.
Cam has a better completion percentage on a higher yards per attempt than Brady this year. Outside of the last hail mary I don't think his stats were misleading at all, he's been really good for the last 3.5 games.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Cam has a better completion percentage on a higher yards per attempt than Brady this year. Outside of the last hail mary I don't think his stats were misleading at all, he's been really good for the last 3.5 games.
His stats were good against the Texans but he didn’t play that well. He racked up a lot of empty yards that resulted in only 20 points.
 

Super Nomario

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His stats were good against the Texans but he didn’t play that well. He racked up a lot of empty yards that resulted in only 20 points.
A big part of the reason it was only 20 points is because the Patriots only had 8 real drives, because the defense was so awful. Cam had some ugly misses but he was mostly pretty good Sunday.
 

scottyno

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His stats were good against the Texans but he didn’t play that well. He racked up a lot of empty yards that resulted in only 20 points.
He had almost no empty yards outside of the last drive. He really only had yards on 5 other drives, they scored 20 points on 4 of them and the 5th was the last drive where they turned it over on downs.
 

Silverdude2167

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It's the Post so grain of salt etc...but if true this is all from Arians camp and they should know it makes Arians look bad...

I mean sure Brady hasn't been great, but this is who everyone on the board knew he was the last few years...did you do no scouting before handing out 50M and the keys to the car?

Also, the posts above talking about lack of pre-snap motion would point to a coaching issue, not a Brady issue as I have trouble believing that a QB who wins with his mind does not want or see the value of motion to help read the defense.
 

BaseballJones

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Brady is on pace for 36 TD, 13 INT, and his team is averaging > 29 points a game.

Sure the offense has some issues but it’s not like Brady didn’t have bad games while with the Pats. The offense on the whole has been one of the best in the NFL. Even though it doesn’t really play to Brady’s strengths. I think he’s having a fine season.
 

Euclis20

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Brady is on pace for 36 TD, 13 INT, and his team is averaging > 29 points a game.

Sure the offense has some issues but it’s not like Brady didn’t have bad games while with the Pats. The offense on the whole has been one of the best in the NFL. Even though it doesn’t really play to Brady’s strengths. I think he’s having a fine season.
This is a bit much. They are 9th in points per drive, aided somewhat by having the 7th best starting field position. Football Outsiders has them 8th in offensive DVOA. That's solidly above average but it's slightly underwhelming given the star power (old or not) at their skill positions. Which is fine, given that their defense is excellent (7th in points allowed per drive, 2nd in DVOA). A top 10 offense and a top 5 defense can certainly result in a SB winning team, but lets not pretend that their offense hasn't been somewhat disappointing.
 

BaseballJones

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It’s disappointing if you expected them to put up 35 points a game, sure. I certainly didn’t expect that. I think Brady has thrown a few more INTs than I expected, but otherwise this is what I imagined it would be. I mean 29+ points a game, and your QB on pace for 36 TD passes is pretty damned good.
 

Euclis20

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You keep mentioning their raw numbers which aren't unimpressive, but without any context they are meaningless. It's a different NFL than it was 5, 10, 15 years ago, and the Bucs tend to have a lot of possessions (125, first in the league), through no fault or strength of their offense. 8th in offensive DVOA, 9th in points per possession, 22nd in yards per drive and 11th in percentage of drives that end in a score. "Disappointing" is going to be a pretty subjective measurement either way, but considering they've currently got two of the best offensive players of the last decade, plus two guys who had over 1100 yards receiving last year, plus Tom Brady....people expected more than an offense that is in the bottom half of the top 10.