My hit tool meter: two clawhammers, three rubber mallets, one croquet mallet, one crowbar, two tire irons, and four machetes.
2021 Draft
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
It's several hours later and I am still intermittently giggling about Gammons failing a Turing test.
Hopefully he still passes when speaking to someone in person.
My ideal draft is Jobe in the first and Hill in the second. Both are high ceiling pitchers who I would love to follow.
If The sox draft Jobe, he won't be in the Majors for a while. We'll need some patience.
Peter Gammons knows a thousand times as much about baseball as you 2 clowns who think it is cool to insult him. Turn your attention toward some real facts and ideas.
I didn’t say Gammons didn’t know baseball, but some of his tweets are literally half gibberish.
It’s not cool to insult him. It’s literally fucking heartbreaking that such a great writer has morphed into an unintelligible tweeter. Time for an intervention.
Duelling MLB (Callis/Mayo) 7/11 mock drafts:
2. TEX - Leiter/Leiter
3. DET - Jobe/House
4. BOS - Davis/Davis
5. BAL - Watson/Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 9 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9, Callis 7/11, Mayo 7/11)
Jack Leiter: 5 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-who-will-be-selected-tonight?t=mlb-draft-coverage
1. PIT - Mayer/Mayer
2. TEX - Leiter/Leiter
3. DET - Jobe/House
4. BOS - Davis/Davis
5. BAL - Watson/Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 9 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9, Callis 7/11, Mayo 7/11)
Jack Leiter: 5 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-who-will-be-selected-tonight?t=mlb-draft-coverage
I've never watched an MLB draft before. I see that it "starts" at 7:00. Is that the start time of the actual draft, or just its coverage? About what time will the Sox pick?
FG 7/11 mock draft:
1. PIT - Mayer
2. TEX - Leiter
3. DET - Jobe
4. BOS - Davis
5. BAL - Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 10 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9, Callis 7/11, Mayo 7/11, FG 7/11)
Jack Leiter: 5 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-3-0-the-morning-of/
Additional later-round players linked to the Sox based on their sources ("dope"):
1. PIT - Mayer
2. TEX - Leiter
3. DET - Jobe
4. BOS - Davis
5. BAL - Watson
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 10 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9, Callis 7/11, Mayo 7/11, FG 7/11)
Jack Leiter: 5 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-3-0-the-morning-of/
Additional later-round players linked to the Sox based on their sources ("dope"):
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Okay, thanks. Good, so it sounds like they don't spend 30 minutes or whatever on pre-draft gibberish.
BA 7/11 mock draft:
1. PIT - Mayer
2. TEX - Watson
3. DET - Jobe
4. BOS - Leiter
5. BAL - Lawlar
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 10 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9, Callis 7/11, Mayo 7/11, FG 7/11)
Jack Leiter: 6 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9, BA 7/11)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
1. PIT - Mayer
2. TEX - Watson
3. DET - Jobe
4. BOS - Leiter
5. BAL - Lawlar
Mocks to Sox (beginning w/ Callis 5/26 and moving forward, to include MLB, Law, Kiley McDaniel, FanGraphs and Baseball America):
Henry Davis: 10 (Callis 5/26, Callis 6/9, Law 6/24, Mayo 6/30, FG 7/6, McDaniel 7/9, Law 7/9, Callis 7/11, Mayo 7/11, FG 7/11)
Jack Leiter: 6 (FG 6/14, Mayo 6/16, McDaniel 6/18, BA 6/25, BA 7/9, BA 7/11)
Jordan Lawlar: 3 (Mayo 6/2, Callis 6/23, Mayo 7/7)
Kumar Rocker: 1 (Law 5/27)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
If Texas gets Leiter, so be it - Pittsburgh had 17 wins out of 60, Texas 19 last season. Sox with 24. They were never going to quite be that bad. If Detroit snipes Leiter though I'll be annoyed, I think Detroit had 23 wins.
Of course, which of these prospects truly blooms we don't know, so overanalyzing draft position and regretting not tanking as hard is foolish, but that wo'nt stop my feelings today!
Of course, which of these prospects truly blooms we don't know, so overanalyzing draft position and regretting not tanking as hard is foolish, but that wo'nt stop my feelings today!
If Lieter is there, I expect it’s a slam dunk, but I expect Texas to grab him. If that’s the case I think it comes down to “in Chaim we trust” and we’re going to use the pick to tell us more about the player and the Sox FO’s thinking, rather than complaining about who they should’ve grabbed (at least for a few years).
To a certain extent I expect quite a bit post-hoc rationalization, but I think that’s fair when their are so widely divergent views of the player pool and we really don’t know that much about them.
What I’m really hoping for in this context is a dynamic, upside pick, which is really almost anyone but Davis. HS SS or Jobe, maybe even Rocker or a supposed over-draft like Ford; the idea/ hope is we’re getting a shot of optimism & a player the Sox feel like they would rarely have a chance at. Davis feels like a safe, boring pick, but I think it maybe says as much about the board behind him.
I agree with this. I suspect it is going to be Davis when all is said and done, but I'd rather take Rocker if it comes to that. The mock drafts that have Rocker dropping all the way to #10 or so seem bizarre to me. Yes, he went through a rough patch part way through this season, but I don't think he's Trey Ball 2.0. The pendulum has gone way too far to the other side on him.
As for the HS players, who knows? Jobe will almost certainly be available, and/or Lawlar, Watson, House, etc. The impatient part of me doesn't want to wait on a HS infielder to grow into his body and get all the necessary reps (reaching the league 4-5 years from now), and the skeptical part of me is terrified of a HS pitcher. I keep thinking of the recent news that Riley Pint, the 100-MPh fireballer whom the Rockies drafted in our exact same slot in 2016, has already retired.
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Fingers crossed for Leiter, but enough people have high opinions of Davis that I won’t hate it. Just wish I felt better about his upside.
At the very least I like that we may have a choice of:
At the very least I like that we may have a choice of:
- Top college pitcher
- Top college hitter
- Top high school pitcher
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Rumor now that the Sox may go under slot at 4 with Matt McLain. That would be terribly underwhelming.
Hope it’s Leiter. I’d love to grab LSU’s Jaden Hill at 40. He was a top three college starter before tearing his UCL. Big frame, good velocity, three pitches. Prior to the injury I thought he’d be in the mix for the 4th pick. To steal him at 40 would be great.
The one thing that reassures me in all this is that it really seems like Chaim Bloom knows what he's doing.
I’m rooting for them to pick up Gordon Graceffo, a Villanova pitcher who is playing for Bourne this summer. Probably 4th or 5th round but he’s a big, strong guy who has looked dominant this year.
Does this strategy ever work? Seems counterintuitive to me - after all, I thought the entire raison d'être of tanking was that draft history shows us that it's much more likely to find a good prospect at the top of the draft than it is later on. But then if you go underslot at a premium draft position, it's basically the same as trading down in football for a better later round pick.
Would be interested if anyone has every looked at this.
FFS first time with a pick this high in forever and they may go under slot?
Its going to be disappointing as hell to go with davis, but going under slot is going to be so much worse
Its going to be disappointing as hell to go with davis, but going under slot is going to be so much worse
I took a very cursory glance earlier in the thread. You have one absolute grand slam (Mookie), JBJ was a little overslot, but mostly it is names like Owens, Denney, Longhi, Speier, Weems, Kukuk, Buttrey, Coyle, Cecchini, etc. Swihart was maybe the most we’ve paid overslot and is one of the bigger successes. Logan Allen was a valuable trade chip.
But a lot of these examples pre-date the current pool system which to me is just another reason not to go under slot now. They weren’t really skimping early and taking lesser players to go over slot later. There was just more ability to go overslot back in those days.
I want:
Leiter
Rocker
Lawlar
Mayer or Davis
Kobe wouldn’t be terrible, but HS arms scare me. Like others, I do NOT want to go under slot.
I’m not fearful of Davis. His hitting profile, and potential, remind me of Carlos Santana.
Leiter
Rocker
Lawlar
Mayer or Davis
Kobe wouldn’t be terrible, but HS arms scare me. Like others, I do NOT want to go under slot.
I’m not fearful of Davis. His hitting profile, and potential, remind me of Carlos Santana.
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Here is a non-paywalled article on McClain that quotes some scouting info. His BaseballAmerica scouting report is paywalled.
Obviously I know very little about Matt McClain and I know batting average isn't what teams are looking for these days. There are comprehensive ways to quantify a players offensive contributions and BA isn't one. However, hitting .279 in NCAA for his career is a little rough at this pick. There's been a ton of year-to-year improvement there, but he's undersized and the seasons only get longer as you progress in the pros and the competition gets elite. Expecting a player who hits .279 for their college career to turn into a professional hitter who can make quality contact often enough to be promoted is a tough gamble at a pick that high. Add to it that he's undersized and doesn't have an obvious landing spot defensively - and played multiple positions in college - and that has all the makings of a rough gamble at 4th overall. Arizona took him 25th in 2019. Maybe it's a good thing he has experience at multiple positions, I don't know, but it doesn't read well to me.
There are too many exciting players with upside out there for that to not feel a little deflating if they go that way. In terms of non-Leiter options Jobe, Mayer, and Rocker are super exciting. If we're going to go with a college hitter, Henry Davis has a similar college arc compared to McClain - improving as he went on, having very good results this past year - and while not super sexy, that wouldn't be a terrible pick. I would be a little disappointed with Davis if Jobe and Rocker were available, but that is totally "In Chaim We Trust" territory.
Obviously I know very little about Matt McClain and I know batting average isn't what teams are looking for these days. There are comprehensive ways to quantify a players offensive contributions and BA isn't one. However, hitting .279 in NCAA for his career is a little rough at this pick. There's been a ton of year-to-year improvement there, but he's undersized and the seasons only get longer as you progress in the pros and the competition gets elite. Expecting a player who hits .279 for their college career to turn into a professional hitter who can make quality contact often enough to be promoted is a tough gamble at a pick that high. Add to it that he's undersized and doesn't have an obvious landing spot defensively - and played multiple positions in college - and that has all the makings of a rough gamble at 4th overall. Arizona took him 25th in 2019. Maybe it's a good thing he has experience at multiple positions, I don't know, but it doesn't read well to me.
There are too many exciting players with upside out there for that to not feel a little deflating if they go that way. In terms of non-Leiter options Jobe, Mayer, and Rocker are super exciting. If we're going to go with a college hitter, Henry Davis has a similar college arc compared to McClain - improving as he went on, having very good results this past year - and while not super sexy, that wouldn't be a terrible pick. I would be a little disappointed with Davis if Jobe and Rocker were available, but that is totally "In Chaim We Trust" territory.
It looks like it may have worked for the Red Sox *last year,* if you believe in Nick Yorke's 1.000+ OPS over the last month or so.
edit: to be clear, that was way different than screwing around with a #4 pick, which I would oppose.
Weirdly, Keith Law has him as the 6th best prospect in the draft (first five: Mayer, Davis, Lawlar, Leiter, Rocker in that order). I don't get it, based on everything you've written here.
It makes more sense if you break it out by year.
2019 .203/.276/.355
2020 .397/.422/.621
2021 .333/.434/.579
After striking out a lot in his first two NCAA seasons, McClain cut his Ks way down, and improved his walk rate in 2021 to the point that he had 34 of each in 47 games.
McClain is a plausible top 15 pick even if you think he's a 2B. If you think he's likely to stick at SS, Law's ranking is only a bit aggressive.
I mean, you cut out the parts of my post where I acknowledge he was drafted 25th overall two years ago and I noted there's been a ton of year-to-year improvement. I like to contribute my opinion here based on what limited information I have because I think it's fun. I enjoy following amateur players as they progress from the draft and through the minors. I've tried to bring relevant information to my posts and source them accordingly. A quick and dirty run down on McClain makes me think it's too much of a gamble at 4. Other posters noted he's a solid top 15 pick or better if he sticks at shortstop, so maybe it isn't deeply under-slot. I was under the impression it is fair play here to be making opinions based on scouting reports and a b-ref page. He's improved a ton year-to-year but the overall picture looks like a gamble to me; that's what I think. If we end up with him, I hope Famous Baseball Expert Keith Law continues to demonstrate he knows more than regular people like me speculating for enjoyment.
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I am absolutely not well versed in the ways of drafts and prospect development, but I'm having a hard time grasping the hate for Davis. I totally get being really excited by the idea of getting Leiter, but if Davis has the upside of Buster Posey then how is that not insanely high upside? Posey had a 5 year peak averaging 7.5 fwar per season with several respectable off-peak seasons. That's unquestionably one of the best players in the game at a premium position. From 2012-2016 Posey ranked #1, #9, #3, #6, #7 in position player fwar.
Unless you start looking at comps like A-Rod for the HS shortstop crop, you aren't finding a higher upside comp than Posey most likely. Are the shortstops really that good?
I guess I just can't square people saying that Davis has the upside of Buster Posey and also saying that he is a boring pick without enough upside when compared to the other possible picks.
Unless you start looking at comps like A-Rod for the HS shortstop crop, you aren't finding a higher upside comp than Posey most likely. Are the shortstops really that good?
I guess I just can't square people saying that Davis has the upside of Buster Posey and also saying that he is a boring pick without enough upside when compared to the other possible picks.
Also Yorke was the first round pick, I would say the strategy works if the lower picks you pay up for work out.
Yeah I’m also in this boat
get the BPA and pay them what they need to be signed