2021 Draft

Merkle's Boner

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If Duran doesn’t lose his prospect status this year, I could see us having 5 or 6 guys on the top 100 lists, a huge improvement over a few years ago.
Casas
Mayer
Duran
Downs
Jimenez
Houck?
Bello?
Yorke?

Hell, even Jay Groome looks like he might be finally putting it together.
 

BringBackMo

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Jul 15, 2005
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If Duran doesn’t lose his prospect status this year, I could see us having 5 or 6 guys on the top 100 lists, a huge improvement over a few years ago.
Casas
Mayer
Duran
Downs
Jimenez
Houck?
Bello?
Yorke?

Hell, even Jay Groome looks like he might be finally putting it together.
Adding to your broader point about the improving system: Bryan Mata just underwent TJ surgery but is still just 22 and is certainly a possibility to regain his top prospect status by age 23 or 24. And Brandon Howlett is knocking on Portland’s door at 21 by regaining his form this year and hitting .282/.376/.529 with 9 hr so far in high-A. I remain very high on him. Exciting times indeed.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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This would make sense in the context of our farm. Our 15th ranked farm is only ranked this highly because we have the highest amount of 40FV players at 18 players.

Relative to the teams with better ranked farm systems, we have only 3 players with FV of 50 or more. That's tied with 14th ranked KC, and worse than all the other 13 teams.

So, the system at present has a lot of decent prospects, many of whom will not pan out. What we're really lacking is some high-end talent. Drafting both Mayer and Fabian and agreeing to pay slot or above slot makes sense in filling out the system with high-end talent. We have enough 40FV players relative to other systems. The top 7 ranked farm systems have 6 or more players with FV of 50 or more, basically double the high-end talent that we have. That's what we don't have enough and hopefully we're forgoing some lower ranked players and willing to pay slot or above for Mayer and Fabian.

Mayer is coming in with an FV of 50 and Fabian with FV of 40+.
This is the point I was trying to make earlier, but without any numbers. Last year was load up on bodies because the foundation had gaping holes in it. This time, it's take advantage of the drafting position and pay top dollar for the top end draftees. While hindsight & hot takers will always add in the obligatory "Bloom was sure lucky they sucked *really* badly in 2020," the measure of him as a GM is what he did during 2020 and in its aftermath.
 
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Apisith

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Bloom also needs to be working to see what international FAs we can poach and whether we have enough money available because the only top talent we have committed is Miguel Bleis who is ranked around #40. For comparison the Yankees have #3 ranked Arias committed to them for $4m. This is one area that we’re still not competitive with the Yankees but of course these prospects have been committed to teams for years already, so we’ll see Bloom’s work in a couple of years. It really shows how much Dombrowski overlooked things though because not only was the farm system thin but we weren’t able to get any top ranked kids to commit to us as well.
 

joe dokes

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Bloom also needs to be working to see what international FAs we can poach and whether we have enough money available because the only top talent we have committed is Miguel Bleis who is ranked around #40. For comparison the Yankees have #3 ranked Arias committed to them for $4m. This is one area that we’re still not competitive with the Yankees but of course these prospects have been committed to teams for years already, so we’ll see Bloom’s work in a couple of years. It really shows how much Dombrowski overlooked things though because not only was the farm system thin but we weren’t able to get any top ranked kids to commit to us as well.
Presumably, they wont have a really high draft pick next year, so that's probably the next area to explore/devote substantial $$$.
 

AMS25

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Scouting report on Wyatt Olds. This report has me excited.

http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2020/12/scouting-report-lhp-wyatt-olds.html

"Big-time 3B orientation on his horizonatal approach angle allows his high spin stuff to play way, way up. Slider might have more perceived horizontal tilt that any other pitcher in the draft. Approach to the plate mirrors guys like Adam Ottavino. Furthermore, his lower release height and extension allow a low 90s fastball to blow up on hitters at the top of the zone. Sneaky good profile here that could move extremely fast in the bullpen."

This site has him ranked #100, and the Sox got him at #196. For whatever that's worth.
He was inconsistent for OU this year with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Tied with Jason Ruffcorn, he gave up the most homeruns on the team (12). As an OU baseball fan, I was surprised anyone drafted any OU pitchers this year as they were all awful.
 

IpswichSox

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Jul 14, 2005
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Bloom also needs to be working to see what international FAs we can poach and whether we have enough money available because the only top talent we have committed is Miguel Bleis who is ranked around #40. For comparison the Yankees have #3 ranked Arias committed to them for $4m. This is one area that we’re still not competitive with the Yankees but of course these prospects have been committed to teams for years already, so we’ll see Bloom’s work in a couple of years. It really shows how much Dombrowski overlooked things though because not only was the farm system thin but we weren’t able to get any top ranked kids to commit to us as well.
On international free agents, don't forget that we had two international free agent classes totally wiped out, and that's a contributing reason why the farm system had been thinned out in recent years, more so than Dombrowski "overlooking" things. We lost five international free agents from the 2015-2016 signing period, and then we were prohibited from signing anyone during the 2016-2017 international signing period. Those free agents are typically like 16 or 17 years old, so if any of them had stuck they could have been impacting the upper minors by now and potentially more.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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deep inside Guido territory
Tampa, FL HS kid committed to Oklahoma State. Throws high 80s as a pitcher as well. Hit .438 this year for his HS team and stole 40 bases in his 4 varsity seasons. Very smart kid as he got a 5.8 GPA and was a NHS recipient. Won the 2021 Wade Boggs Award for athletic and academic success in Hillsborough County.
2021 hitting stats: 35-for-80, 3 HRs, 12 2B, 21 RBI, 29 R. .438/.562/.700.
2021 pitching stats: 11.1 IP 15 K/3 BB/2 saves/1.85 ERA/0.88 WHIP
View: https://twitter.com/MLBDraftTracker/status/1414988564853665797
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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If Duran doesn’t lose his prospect status this year, I could see us having 5 or 6 guys on the top 100 lists, a huge improvement over a few years ago.
Casas
Mayer
Duran
Downs
Jimenez
Houck?
Bello?
Yorke?

Hell, even Jay Groome looks like he might be finally putting it together.
Jimenez and Downs have probably lost value this year and won't be close to the top 100 lists barring a great 2nd half. Houck won't be on the list either.

I'd be looking to trade Gilberto but maybe he'll get the Duran power surge too.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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Every LA Dodger pick through the 15th round has been a pitcher
The Sox talent at the top of the draft - especially Mayer and to some extent Fabian -- is very exciting. The lack of any real top of the line pitchers is a bit conspicuous. I know there is a lot of "projectability" with some of the pitchers they did select, and that's largely the name of the draft game; though surprised the 2nd or 3rd pick wasn't used on a highly ranked pitcher in the class ...
 
Jul 21, 2005
24
Wilton, CT
The Sox talent at the top of the draft - especially Mayer and to some extent Fabian -- is very exciting. The lack of any real top of the line pitchers is a bit conspicuous. I know there is a lot of "projectability" with some of the pitchers they did select, and that's largely the name of the draft game; though surprised the 2nd or 3rd pick wasn't used on a highly ranked pitcher in the class ...
That's my assessment too, especially with Sox minor league system bereft of any top tier pitching and limited pitching depth.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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Yeah, when it starts getting that high, I wonder if it's out of 10
I mean I recall that when I was in high school we picked up 5s for scoring an A in an AP class (and those As helped me compensate for my suicidally depressed junior year, let me tell you). Maybe these days they award you extra points for your score on the AP test? A few 8s, 9s, and 10s would really bloat that GPA.
 
Jul 21, 2005
24
Wilton, CT
I'm no scout, but I'd have taken chance on Jaden Hill recovering from surgery, with 2nd pick. Second, McDonough looks interesting, but would have been there at 4th pick. I'd have taken another pitcher with 3rd pick, then McDonough with 4th pick. I believe these picks would have better fit in Sox current minor league system depth.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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I'm no scout, but I'd have taken chance on Jaden Hill recovering from surgery, with 2nd pick. Second, McDonough looks interesting, but would have been there at 4th pick. I'd have taken another pitcher with 3rd pick, then McDonough with 4th pick. I believe these picks would have better fit in Sox current minor league system depth.
Yeah, Jaden Hill would have been exciting to get ... superb stuff. If he can recover he's going to be good ...
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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MLB drafting is pretty much a black box for me, so many thanks to those who know stuff for informing the rest of us.