2021 MVP watch

Silverdude2167 · Oct 13, 2021

BaseballJones said:
Too early? Who cares.

Top 5
1. Tom Brady: 66.2%, 1,767 yds, 15 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating, averaging 353.4 yards passing per game, offense is scoring 33.4 points a game
2. Kyler Murray: 75.2%, 1,512 yds, 10 td, 4 int, 113.0 rating, add in 3 rushing touchdowns, team is undefeated at 5-0
3. Derrick Henry: 640 yds rushing, 128.0 rush yds/g, 7 td, carrying the Tennessee offense
4. Matthew Stafford: 68.0%, 1,587 yds, 12 td, 3 int, 113.2 rating
5. Lamar Jackson: 67.1%, 1,519 yds, 8 td, 3 int, 104.4 rating, add in 341 rush yds and 2 rush td

You can make a case for a bunch of people besides these guys being in the top 5 and I fully expect some disagreement with my list.

Obviously meaningless at this point, but how do you put Brady above Kyler?

Jungleland · Oct 13, 2021

Herbert is nearly identical to Stafford right now - 67.1% completion rate, 1576 yards, 13-3 TD-Int, 104.7 passer rating and another TD on the ground. He's in the conversation for sure. I also don't think Brady over Kyler is crazy right now when you factor in two fewer interceptions and that Brady has more yards and TDs even with Kyler's rushing, but obviously the two are pretty much tied atop the list.

Bozo Texino · Oct 13, 2021

How has Josh Allen not been mentioned?

snowmanny · Oct 13, 2021

Herbert needs to be on that list. Aside from stats, he has as much national buzz as anyone.

PC Drunken Friar · Oct 13, 2021

BaseballJones said:
Too early? Who cares.

Top 5
1. Tom Brady: 66.2%, 1,767 yds, 15 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating, averaging 353.4 yards passing per game, offense is scoring 33.4 points a game
2. Kyler Murray: 75.2%, 1,512 yds, 10 td, 4 int, 113.0 rating, add in 3 rushing touchdowns, team is undefeated at 5-0
3. Derrick Henry: 640 yds rushing, 128.0 rush yds/g, 7 td, carrying the Tennessee offense
4. Matthew Stafford: 68.0%, 1,587 yds, 12 td, 3 int, 113.2 rating
5. Lamar Jackson: 67.1%, 1,519 yds, 8 td, 3 int, 104.4 rating, add in 341 rush yds and 2 rush td

You can make a case for a bunch of people besides these guys being in the top 5 and I fully expect some disagreement with my list.

I wonder if the voters will take into account the 17th game. If Henry leads the Titans to the playoffs and continues at this pace, he breaks ED's record....but still (very very small difference) less per game than last year. And he got 0 votes last year. If the Titans finish 12-4 or better (highly unlikely) I can see him getting consideration for a "career" MVP.

Right now Vegas odds are

Allen
Murray
Hebert
Prescott
Brady

To me (if the season ended today), this seems reasonable. But Jackson's performance last week tells me he could easily bump Herbert out of the top-5. These things have a way of working themselves out.

Allen- 62.3%/1370/12TD/2INT 35 rushes for 188 yards and 2 TD
Prescott- 73.9%/1368/13TD/3INT
Herbert- 67.1%/1576/13TD/3INT. 1 rushing TD

TFisNEXT · Oct 13, 2021

Bozo Texino said:
How has Josh Allen not been mentioned?

He hasn't been quite at MVP levels yet this year (though he's starting to pick it up now). His shit game against PIT in the opener is weighing him down a bit but he could easily be right back in the convo with couple more great games here in the next few weeks. I have Allen lurking just below that first tier with guys like Dak Prescott and maybe Mahomes (who has been uncharacteristically turnover-prone the first few games).

rodderick · Oct 13, 2021

As usual it'll go to the QB on the team with the best record unless someone has an insane statistical season. For that reason, and considering the remaining schedules, I have Josh Allen as the front runner with Brady close behind. Don't see how the Bills lose more than 3 games going forward and the Bucs don't face a murderer's row either. I've seen this song and dance with Kyler before, wake me up when he's playing at this level in December. Herbert, Lamar and Dak are the other ones who have a shot.

tims4wins · Oct 13, 2021

PC Drunken Friar said:
These things have a way of working themselves out.

Very much agree with this. Someone will separate, and as @rodderick points out it will likely be the QB on the best team.

djbayko · Oct 13, 2021

PC Drunken Friar said:
I wonder if the voters will take into account the 17th game. If Henry leads the Titans to the playoffs and continues at this pace, he breaks ED's record....but still (very very small difference) less per game than last year. And he got 0 votes last year. If the Titans finish 12-4 or better (highly unlikely) I can see him getting consideration for a "career" MVP.

Right now Vegas odds are

Allen
Murray
Hebert
Prescott
Brady

To me (if the season ended today), this seems reasonable. But Jackson's performance last week tells me he could easily bump Herbert out of the top-5. These things have a way of working themselves out.

Allen- 62.3%/1370/12TD/2INT 35 rushes for 188 yards and 2 TD
Prescott- 73.9%/1368/13TD/3INT
Herbert- 67.1%/1576/13TD/3INT. 1 rushing TD

It depends on what sportsbook you look at. Jackson is in the Top 5 at some. MVP odds and order are all over the place and it doesn't really matter much since there's so much juice on them.

Kliq · Oct 19, 2021

Derrick Henry is currently on pace for 2,200 yards and 28 Touchdowns, so he is firmly in the conversation.

Van Everyman · Oct 19, 2021

I don't know if anecdotal stuff matters in the NFL MVP race, but BUF's final play last night on offense seemed like a total fail by Allen in a huge spot. Maybe somebody can argue that his LG (or HC) let him down but it appeared Allen lost his footing and, besides, ran it into the part of the line with the most pressure. If sneaks matter, Tom Brady he is not.

Kliq · Oct 19, 2021

BaseballJones said:
Henry's last four seasons:

53 g, 1,058 att, 5,409 yds, 5.1 y/a, 55 td

Avg per 16 games: 319 att, 1,632 yds, 17 td

That's pretty amazing. If he was more of a pass threat he'd be in the conversation as one of the all-time greats, at least at their peak. The guy is an absolute monster.

I said it yesterday in the game thread but Henry is the ideal physical specimen for a RB. He is what LeBron James was for Small Forwards; just an unimaginable combo of size and speed that make the world-class athletes trying to stop them look completely overwhelmed. The way he blows past the secondary on the 75 yard run last night is insane.

View: https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1450267157573496832?s=20

Ralphwiggum · Oct 19, 2021

Any theories on why it took Henry until his fourth season to be elite? RBs with physical tools like his can usually step right into the NFL and be successful.

Mystic Merlin · Oct 19, 2021

Mike Mularkey gave Demarco Murray shitloads of carries in Henry’s first two years; I don’t know why, other than to speculate that Murray’s salary perhaps spurred them to not relegate him to 50-75 carries. Henry started blossoming in 2018 under Vrabel, though even there new signee Dion Lewis got a ton of low-efficiency carries.

johnmd20 · Oct 19, 2021

Ralphwiggum said:
Any theories on why it took Henry until his fourth season to be elite? RBs with physical tools like his can usually step right into the NFL and be successful.

Gotta be Mike Malarky related. He was just not using Henry correctly.

Cellar-Door · Oct 19, 2021

Ralphwiggum said:
Any theories on why it took Henry until his fourth season to be elite? RBs with physical tools like his can usually step right into the NFL and be successful.

Some of it was just volume. He averaged 4.5 a carry as a rookie, but was stuck behind DeMarco Murray. Second year he was clearly better than Murray, but still split carries almost evenly behind a not great line. 3rd year he averaged almost 5 YPC, the rest of the offense was just bad, he had already become elite. Then the next 3 he's been getting tons of carries and the QB play is better.

Big McCorkle · Oct 19, 2021

Ralphwiggum said:
Any theories on why it took Henry until his fourth season to be elite? RBs with physical tools like his can usually step right into the NFL and be successful.

It's Ryan Tannehill. Both the in-season and career splits before and after Tannehill got the starting job speak for themselves.

Jungleland · Oct 19, 2021

While Demarco's departure, Tannehill's arrival, and the coaching changes all helped quite a bit, there's also a pretty fun bit of legend-building in the "Eddie George taught him how to be effective" narrative:

"He asked me flat-out what I thought about his game," George said. "And I was very honest. I said, look, it's not about you hitting the home run. We know you can hit the home run. It's what you can do consistently between the tackles, and it comes down to one fundamental thing. It comes down to you imposing your will on defenders. You are too big not to use that as your strength. You have to force guys to tackle you. Make one cut and go."
George told Henry his legs appeared "to go dead after contact" and he needed to keep them moving.
George gave Henry a specific example from the team's game against the Chargers in London, which George attended. It was a second quarter play, an off tackle play to the left, when George felt Henry turned contact down against a Chargers defender, despite having a big size advantage. From one big back to the other, George hammered Henry about it.
"I'm like: There was an opportunity for you to square him up and run through him and impose your will on him, and one of a few things were going to happen. You were either going to run him over, or you were going to hurt him, or you were going to run through the tackle," George said. "And that sets a tone when you do that, and it establishes who you are and what you are going to be about. I felt like there was an opportunity lost for you to do that."

I love watch Derrick Henry run the football a lot - if he can keep even an approximation of this up for a few more years he'll go down as one of my favorite players of all time.

cshea · Oct 19, 2021

Not to derail on the Henry subject, but Dak probably belongs near the top of the MVP candidates. He's legit plus the usual Dallas hype machine.

73% completion, 1,813 yards 16 TD, 4 INT 115 rating.

rodderick · Oct 25, 2021

Seems like we're consolidating towards a Kyler/Brady/Stafford/Dak/Allen race in terms of a combination of volume, efficiency and team success. I think Rodgers has a shot at being in the conversation really soon and so does Joe Burrow. Lamar was probably the favorite last week, but the Ravens are too banged up and I can't see them having a good enough record or Lamar having the kind of crazy stats he'd need to win, even though he's probably the guy who fits the literal definition of the award the best right now.

At the end of the day, if Brady leads the league in passing TDs and yards as he's doing right now and the Bucs go 13-4 or better, he'll get his 4th trophy. I think voters are dying for that last coronation.

54thMA · Oct 25, 2021

BaseballJones said:
Henry: 6'3", 247 pounds, 4.54 in the 40, 37-inch vertical. He hit 21.8 mph on that run you just posted, @Kliq, the fastest any player has run in the NFL so far this year.

The man is absolutely amazing.

They way he just blew past two defenders at the 40 and kicked it into another gear is incredible, what an athlete, a sheer joy to watch.

Kliq · Oct 25, 2021

What will happen is one or two of those QBs will separate themselves from the rest, with team record likely to be the determining factor. Brady is most likely going to be consistent, but Kyler will have things like rushing to help put him over the top, and his team is really good and could be the #1 seed in the West.

Simmons and Sal had a brief discussion about Derrick Henry on their show and brought up the interesting idea that he basically has no peers. No one at his position is even close to being as dominant as he is as a rusher; it is like he has a different job than everybody else. If he wins the rushing title by like, 500 yards and runs for twice as many TDs as everyone else, and Tennessee is a solid playoff team, it will be tough to deny him.

rodderick · Oct 25, 2021

Kliq said:
What will happen is one or two of those QBs will separate themselves from the rest, with team record likely to be the determining factor. Brady is most likely going to be consistent, but Kyler will have things like rushing to help put him over the top, and his team is really good and could be the #1 seed in the West.

Simmons and Sal had a brief discussion about Derrick Henry on their show and brought up the interesting idea that he basically has no peers. No one at his position is even close to being as dominant as he is as a rusher; it is like he has a different job than everybody else. If he wins the rushing title by like, 500 yards and runs for twice as many TDs as everyone else, and Tennessee is a solid playoff team, it will be tough to deny him.

I think Henry can only win if he breaks some all time records this season. He was arguably better last year and that wasn't enough in the eyes of voters.

Marciano490 · Oct 25, 2021

Because I checked, there have been 38 QBs and 16 RBs who have won the MVP, though it looks like a lot of the RBMVP’s were in ye old days, with only 3 in the last 15ish years.

lexrageorge · Oct 25, 2021

Henry absolutely should be in the discussion. If Vegas had a betting line on his being named MVP, he would be a long shot still, as the 5 QB’s above are all having great years as well. But if he keeps going at his current pace (a HUGE if), he will get consideration.

Big McCorkle · Oct 25, 2021

Henry has zero place in the discussion whatsoever. His numbers are almost entirely a function of high volume. The only real reason he might not appear to have statistical peers is because other teams are smart enough not to run the ball 30+ times a game for negative EPA. He's not dominant, he just gets a lot of carries. He's not the most efficient running back, he doesn't have the best RYOE, and, more importantly than anything else, he's a running back. He's not even the most valuable player on his own team. If you went ahead and forced the Titans to make a Sophie's choice between whose ACL they'd rather have tear, Henry's or Tannehill's, they'd offer up Henry every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

rodderick · Oct 25, 2021

Big McCorkle said:
Henry has zero place in the discussion whatsoever. His numbers are almost entirely a function of high volume. The only real reason he might not appear to have statistical peers is because other teams are smart enough not to run the ball 30+ times a game for negative EPA. He's not dominant, he just gets a lot of carries. He's not the most efficient running back, he doesn't have the best RYOE, and, more importantly than anything else, he's a running back. He's not even the most valuable player on his own team. If you went ahead and forced the Titans to make a Sophie's choice between whose ACL they'd rather have tear, Henry's or Tannehill's, they'd offer up Henry every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I agree 100% with this, but I also think voters don't think this way, so I do agree Henry likely is in the conversation (though he shouldn't be).

Cellar-Door · Oct 26, 2021

Big McCorkle said:
Henry has zero place in the discussion whatsoever. His numbers are almost entirely a function of high volume. The only real reason he might not appear to have statistical peers is because other teams are smart enough not to run the ball 30+ times a game for negative EPA. He's not dominant, he just gets a lot of carries. He's not the most efficient running back, he doesn't have the best RYOE, and, more importantly than anything else, he's a running back. He's not even the most valuable player on his own team. If you went ahead and forced the Titans to make a Sophie's choice between whose ACL they'd rather have tear, Henry's or Tannehill's, they'd offer up Henry every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I generally agree, RBs aren't valuable but... being able to handle extreme volume against the highest % of 8+ man fronts is impressive there is an argument that he changes the game for that offense in a way that makes Tannehill valuable because defenses consistently stack the box, and he can handle it. I wouldn't put him in my top 5 MVP candidates, but volume is important when talking about RB performance. What makes Henry crazy is that most RBs see a decline as their carries/touches go up, and he just doesn't. He handles tons of carries against stacked boxes and still produces.

rodderick · Oct 26, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
I generally agree, RBs aren't valuable but... being able to handle extreme volume against the highest % of 8+ man fronts is impressive there is an argument that he changes the game for that offense in a way that makes Tannehill valuable because defenses consistently stack the box, and he can handle it. I wouldn't put him in my top 5 MVP candidates, but volume is important when talking about RB performance. What makes Henry crazy is that most RBs see a decline as their carries/touches go up, and he just doesn't. He handles tons of carries against stacked boxes and still produces.

I think the opposite is likely true: Tannehill becoming the starter completely changed Henry's career trajectory. Here are his numbers before Tannehill's first start: 21 starts in 53 games, 614 attempts for 2709 yards (4.4 YPC) and his numbers starting from the game Tannehill took the reins: 31 starts in 32 games, 759 attempts for 4020 yards (5.3 YPC). The line of demarcation in the 2019 season alone is staggering: 113 carries for 416 yards (3.7 YPC) without Tannehill, 190 carries for 1124 yards (5.9 YPC) with him.

Cellar-Door · Oct 26, 2021

rodderick said:
I think the opposite is likely true: Tannehill becoming the starter completely changed Henry's career trajectory. Here are his numbers before Tannehill's first start: 21 starts in 53 games, 614 attempts for 2709 yards (4.4 YPC) and his numbers starting from the game Tannehill took the reins: 31 starts in 32 games, 759 attempts for 4020 yards (5.3 YPC). The line of demarcation in the 2019 season alone is staggering: 113 carries for 416 yards (3.7 YPC) without Tannehill, 190 carries for 1124 yards (5.9 YPC) with him.

I think it's both. Tannehill needs those single coverages to thrive, Henry need a QB who can throw the ball. Remember he took over from a completely broken QB

wilked · Dec 16, 2021

Rodgers won’t get it, if for nothing else, due to his immunized stuff

Stafford won’t get it as his name hasn’t been in the news, zero buzz

Taylor won’t get it unless he breaks some records, otherwise no one can paint a strong enough story

I’d say it’s Brady vs Kyler

Brady having 50% more passing yards will be tough to overcome I think…

Kliq · Dec 16, 2021

I'd throw Myles Garrett in the mix. Can a defensive player win MVP in 2021? No idea, but if the Browns make the playoffs with everything that has been going on with their offense, I think Garrett is in the mix.

Cousin Walter · Dec 16, 2021

Kliq said:
I'd throw Myles Garrett in the mix. Can a defensive player win MVP in 2021? No idea, but if the Browns make the playoffs with everything that has been going on with their offense, I think Garrett is in the mix.

J.J. Watt had a monster season in 2014 -- he even had 3 TDs on offense in a Mike Vrabel role -- and helped Houston to a 9-7 record. He didn't get the MVP and I don't think a defensive player ever will again.

Justthetippett · Dec 16, 2021

I’d say it’s an old man fight of Brady v. Rodgers; with the tiebreakers being who gets the #1 seed. Feels like it’s a year too early for Kyler, and his missed time and any sputters down the stretch will count against him.

Mystic Merlin · Dec 16, 2021

Kliq said:
I'd throw Myles Garrett in the mix. Can a defensive player win MVP in 2021? No idea, but if the Browns make the playoffs with everything that has been going on with their offense, I think Garrett is in the mix.

Last defensive player to win MVP was LT. Garrett isn’t in the top ten of betting favorites, and I’m not sure he will even win DPOY over Watt and Parsons.

It’ll be a QB like it almost always is.

Cellar-Door · Dec 16, 2021

It'll be a QB, but Cooper Kupp should be on the list, he's on pace for arguably the best WR season ever. Current 16 game pace would make this a top 5 yards season, and he already has more TDs than anyone that high.

tims4wins · Dec 16, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
It'll be a QB, but Cooper Kupp should be on the list, he's on pace for arguably the best WR season ever. Current 16 game pace would make this a top 5 yards season, and he already has more TDs than anyone that high.

Thanks for bringing him up. I would have had no idea he was having such a great season. Through 13 games:
113 catches on 151 targets, 1,489 yards (13.2 YPC), 12 TD
Pro-rated to the old 16 game schedule: 139 catches on 186 targets, 1,833 yards, 15 TDs.

The 1,833 yards would be 5th all time, 1 yard behind AB's 2015 season.

139 catches would be 3rd all time, behind Michael Thomas' 149 in 2019 and Marvin Harrison's 143 in 2002.

And the 15 TD receptions would be T-22 all time, so unremarkable on that note.

I think the TDs are what would hold him back. If he gets to 135+ catches for 1800+ yards with something like 20 TDs, maybe that would have been enough.

Kliq · Dec 16, 2021

Mystic Merlin said:
Last defensive player to win MVP was LT. Garrett isn’t in the top ten of betting favorites, and I’m not sure he will even win DPOY over Watt and Parsons.

It’ll be a QB like it almost always is.

Yeah, I just think that in a year without an obvious QB choice, it could open the door for a defensive player. It does seem like an impossible task if you look at some of the legendary seasons that Watt/Donald have put together and never gotten the nod.

Cellar-Door · Dec 16, 2021

tims4wins said:
Thanks for bringing him up. I would have had no idea he was having such a great season. Through 13 games:
113 catches on 151 targets, 1,489 yards (13.2 YPC), 12 TD
Pro-rated to the old 16 game schedule: 139 catches on 186 targets, 1,833 yards, 15 TDs.

The 1,833 yards would be 5th all time, 1 yard behind AB's 2015 season.

139 catches would be 3rd all time, behind Michael Thomas' 149 in 2019 and Marvin Harrison's 143 in 2002.

And the 15 TD receptions would be T-22 all time, so unremarkable on that note.

I think the TDs are what would hold him back. If he gets to 135+ catches for 1800+ yards with something like 20 TDs, maybe that would have been enough.

Oh he has no chance of winning. It's telling of what the award is though that a guy could have the greatest season in the history of his position and not even come close. It's a QB award.

tims4wins · Dec 16, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
Oh he has no chance of winning. It's telling of what the award is though that a guy could have the greatest season in the history of his position and not even come close. It's a QB award.

I think for a non-QB to win, it has to be even more historic than what Kupp is doing. For instance, if he gets to 150 catches, or cracks 2,000 yards, or puts up 20 TDs. The tough part for WRs is that it usually means the QB is having an amazing year too (like Brady in 2007 with Moss and his 23 TDs)

Euclis20 · Dec 16, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
Oh he has no chance of winning. It's telling of what the award is though that a guy could have the greatest season in the history of his position and not even come close. It's a QB award.

Yup. OPOY can go to a WR/RB/TE (and if Henry had been healthy the whole year, it would have been an interesting decision between he and Cupp), the MVP goes to the QB All-Pro, assuming he's on a division winner.

It's Brady's award to lose. Murray missed too much time, Rodgers has the vaccine thing, plus his numbers are a step down from his MVP year in 2020. Brady is 1st in attempts, completions, yards and TDs, plus the Tampa offense is the best in the league (by DVOA, points scored and total yards) and the frontrunner for the bye. At this moment, it's not really all that close.

tims4wins · Dec 16, 2021

Euclis20 said:
Yup. OPOY can go to a WR/RB/TE (and if Henry had been healthy the whole year, it would have been an interesting decision between he and Cupp), the MVP goes to the QB All-Pro, assuming he's on a division winner.

It's Brady's award to lose. Murray missed too much time, Rodgers has the vaccine thing, plus his numbers are a step down from his MVP year in 2020.

Plus, it's all about the story. Brady wasn't really all that great in 2017, but he was coming off the 2016 suspension, had just won the title, got the #1 seed again and had the best QB stats.

Now 5 years later, it's a great story again - 44 year old guy having the best season, completely unprecedented.

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