NFL QB Carousel

Cellar-Door

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If he didn't like the offensive line in Seattle, Dallas' is not much better given the injuries they had this year.
In his defense, he didn't like that they consistently had terrible lines. DAL spent a lot of resources building a good line, and one would expect they will continue to emphasize it.
 

Mystic Merlin

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That’s what we’re going to find out. High stakes game of chicken here.
He’s pocketed about 40M before taxes so far in his NFL career, and while his extension is huge he only stands to make 10.5M in cash this upcoming season so the recipe is there for a prolonged holdout into the regular season.

Obviously, if he sits on the reserve list for enough regular season games (is it 10-11?) his contract will toll, but he can absolutely take the approach Leveon Bell (who sat out a full season under the franchise tag) and Logan Mankins (who sat out until he had to return to earn a year of service time) did by sitting out regular season games. I see no reason why Houston would doubt his resolve at this point, or what they would gain by letting him sit out for a full year. Presumably that would only make the guy hate them even more, no? Is there precedent for a team keeping a prominent player under widely known, visible duress for more than a year?

If the relationship proves irreparably harmed, then I don’t see the logic or end game in Houston digging in for 1-2 years. Hope the relationship improves? How can that happen when Cal McNair and Easterby are firmly entrenched?
 

EvilEmpire

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From the rest of the ESPN article:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30964026/deshaun-watson-met-houston-texans-coach-david-culley-wants-traded-sources-say
Trading Watson would cost the Texans $21.6 million in dead money against this year's salary cap -- a significant hit, since his cap number if he's on the team is just $15.94 million.

Any team acquiring the young superstar would get a tremendous bargain in 2021, as Watson is scheduled to earn just $10.54 million in salary this year before that number jumps to $35 million in 2022, $37 million in 2023 and $32 million each in 2024 and 2025.
Obviously, it would be best for the Texans to get a boatload of picks and/or a QB to go with them, and just move on. But it seems like their tolerance of risk in holding out for a really good trade could be high.

I think this makes the Watson story about being willing to go to the Jets or Dolphins more plausible. Teams with the most trade assets/highest picks are his best chance to leave the team this year.
 

BigSoxFan

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He’s pocketed about 40M before taxes so far in his NFL career, and while his extension is huge he only stands to make 10.5M in cash this upcoming season so the recipe is there for a prolonged holdout into the regular season.

Obviously, if he sits on the reserve list for enough regular season games (is it 10-11?) his contract will toll, but he can absolutely take the approach Leveon Bell (who sat out a full season under the franchise tag) and Logan Mankins (who sat out until he had to return to earn a year of service time) did by sitting out regular season games. I see no reason why Houston would doubt his resolve at this point, or what they would gain by letting him sit out for a full year. Presumably that would only make the guy hate them even more, no? Is there precedent for a team keeping a prominent player under widely known, visible duress for more than a year?

If the relationship proves irreparably harmed, then I don’t see the logic or end game in Houston digging in for 1-2 years. Hope the relationship improves? How can that happen when Cal McNair and Easterby are firmly entrenched?
Agreed. It sucks for the organization but they're pretty much the reason this has occurred so I don't feel too badly. Caserio can get a king's ransom for Watson whenever he wants and needs to do it. Posture all you want until it's time to pull the trigger...but it makes sense for the organization to trade him and not deal with the distraction and PR nightmare that would result with a staring contest.

Of course, given the organization we're talking about, I fully expect a messy situation that culminates in Easterby insulting Watson's mother and questioning Deshaun's manhood while maybe throwing in a racial dog whistle for good measure. They really are the worst.
 

soxhop411

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One indicator of how serious Watson is about forcing the trade will be how aggressively he approaches the media going forward---is he going to continue saying he wants out, taking interviews, perhaps begin to take shots at the owner, Easterby, or others? Perhaps leak in a deniable but clear way to someone like Mort (professional water carrier with no standards) doubts about the team, or perhaps even drop a "tough to be a black man in this environment?"

A guy like him probably has to go full-Harden to force the team to make a deal becuase they really are better off if they can weather the storm and keep the player. So he needs to make the storm pretty bad...
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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He can sit out and not get paid and lose 1/15th of his career.
Dude takes a beating. Im sure he wouldnt hate a shortened season that could prolong his career. Taking 10 or 11 games off and coasting through the last few games does nothing for the team and it only hurts the return they get for him (1 less year under contract for trade partner, risk of injury, rusty after a year off, etc).

If he wants out, I'd have to think he'll be gone by the draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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He can sit out and not get paid and lose 1/15th of his career.
Maybe, but losing a year is much less of a disincentive for a QB than any other position. Skipping a year on a bad team with a bad line might actually give him a year or two at the end of his career.
 

Royal Reader

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Maybe, but losing a year is much less of a disincentive for a QB than any other position. Skipping a year on a bad team with a bad line might actually give him a year or two at the end of his career.
Yeah, with the tire fire in Houston, he may see it as him losing a season either way, and at least by sitting out he doesn't get hit. His leverage, I guess, is that every year he can play the minimum number of games to satisfy a year of his contract. He will probably win the team a couple of games to stop them getting a shot at a no brainer replacement, but they'll also have to either draft someone to play the game he sits out, or roll with a backup level guy. The team is never good, and also can't meaningfully rebuild.
 

mauf

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This is why the Texans are playing the Watson thing the way they are. Needing to trade Watson is manageable if they can get a fair return; if they let him essentially choose his destination, that’s a different story. (It’s ok for Wilson because he doesn’t appear to want out of Seattle at all costs the way Watson wants out of Houston.)

If I’m in the Texans’ shoes, I’m working the phones hard and telling everyone I speak to that if I read about our conversation in the press, they’re dead to me.
 

mauf

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Yeah, with the tire fire in Houston, he may see it as him losing a season either way, and at least by sitting out he doesn't get hit. His leverage, I guess, is that every year he can play the minimum number of games to satisfy a year of his contract. He will probably win the team a couple of games to stop them getting a shot at a no brainer replacement, but they'll also have to either draft someone to play the game he sits out, or roll with a backup level guy. The team is never good, and also can't meaningfully rebuild.
Can’t they suspend him at some point for failure to report?
 

67YAZ

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Can’t they suspend him at some point for failure to report?
But at what point do these punitive measures destroy the team-player relationship? Does the Texans' brass think they can punish Watson into submission? That he'd come back and be a good soldier after a protracted battle?

Watson just watched James Harden shoot his way out of Houston, and I have to believe Watson and Harden were at least casually acquainted being superstar athletes in the same town. So Watson has seen up close how a star athlete used his leverage to get to his desired destination. And given the nature of the NFL these days where QBs are by far the most important players on their teams, it's not unexpected for Watson to explore if he has as much leverage in the NFL as an unhappy star player does in the NBA.

And like Harden, if the Texans refuse to deal Watson and he comes to camp unhappy...that can be its own fiasco that submarines the team on the field and their ability to swing a trade.
 

bsj

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Sitting out demanding a trade is so different than sitting out demanding a new contract. Teammates generally support (at least publicly) players who want to stay with a team but want to get paid. This would be very different.
 

E5 Yaz

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... if the Texans refuse to deal Watson and he comes to camp unhappy...that can be its own fiasco that submarines the team on the field and their ability to swing a trade.
Exactly, there's a point where the pendulum starts to swing away from this being in the Texans' favor. Since their entire stated premise this season is to create a winning culture, turning up the animosity with the QB would appear to be counter-productive.

Of course, given the non-Caserio portion of this team's management, they probably think they can demand that Watson like drink the kool-aid
 

mauf

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But at what point do these punitive measures destroy the team-player relationship? Does the Texans' brass think they can punish Watson into submission? That he'd come back and be a good soldier after a protracted battle?

Watson just watched James Harden shoot his way out of Houston, and I have to believe Watson and Harden were at least casually acquainted being superstar athletes in the same town. So Watson has seen up close how a star athlete used his leverage to get to his desired destination. And given the nature of the NFL these days where QBs are by far the most important players on their teams, it's not unexpected for Watson to explore if he has as much leverage in the NFL as an unhappy star player does in the NBA.

And like Harden, if the Texans refuse to deal Watson and he comes to camp unhappy...that can be its own fiasco that submarines the team on the field and their ability to swing a trade.
If I’m running the Texans, then I’m publicly saying the things the Texans are but privately working hard to accommodate Watson’s request. But if he starts trying to limit my options and choose his destination, the calculus changes.

As a fan, I have no trouble with Watson using whatever leverage he has to improve his situation. But his situation is different from a player who is still on his rookie contract. Watson knew who he was dealing with when he decided to take the long-term deal with guaranteed money instead of going the Cousins/Prescott route. I don’t think it would be a smart move for the Texans to hold on to an unhappy Watson instead of moving on and using the massive haul they’ll get in a trade to rebuild, but I won’t feel too bad for Watson if the Texans hold him to his contract.

I don’t think the Harden parallel is terribly instructive — different sport, different culture. And Watson seems to recognize this; so far, he has been much more constructive in his approach than Harden was.
 

Cellar-Door

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Sitting out demanding a trade is so different than sitting out demanding a new contract. Teammates generally support (at least publicly) players who want to stay with a team but want to get paid. This would be very different.
I think:
1. It generally doesn't matter, If Watson truly sits out he doesn't intend to ever return to that lockerroom
2. It sure seems like most of the other players there hate management as much as he does, and around the league I think the idea of a QB using his leverage to get out of a bad situation with a team that lied to him is going to play well. The NFL player/management dynamic is the most toxic and adversarial of any league because players are essentially treated as disposable and they know it.
 

Shelterdog

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Sitting out demanding a trade is so different than sitting out demanding a new contract. Teammates generally support (at least publicly) players who want to stay with a team but want to get paid. This would be very different.
Never been a pro football player but my sense is thatthe vast majority of his teammates will be one hundred percent on board with whatever he wants to do off field, whether it's seeking a trade or a new contract. Business is business and a star player doing whatever he can to help himself and his family is just something you have to live with, even if it hurts the team. Maybe some will be pissed but honestly, it is a shabbily run team and his teammates will recognize that as well.
 

BusRaker

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If they are truly at an impasse, how many years does Watson have to hold out before he is unrestricted? Gronk sat out a year and still had to be traded by the Pats. This is where the NFL has so much leverage versus sports where they can at least play overseas (Japan for Baseball, Italy etc. for basketball, Europe for hockey) and still get a somewhat decent paycheck
 

moondog80

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If they are truly at an impasse, how many years does Watson have to hold out before he is unrestricted? Gronk sat out a year and still had to be traded by the Pats. This is where the NFL has so much leverage versus sports where they can at least play overseas (Japan for Baseball, Italy etc. for basketball, Europe for hockey) and still get a somewhat decent paycheck
Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
 

Cellar-Door

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If they are truly at an impasse, how many years does Watson have to hold out before he is unrestricted? Gronk sat out a year and still had to be traded by the Pats. This is where the NFL has so much leverage versus sports where they can at least play overseas (Japan for Baseball, Italy etc. for basketball, Europe for hockey) and still get a somewhat decent paycheck
The problem for the team is something simple though.... they have to hold the cap space open in case he reports. So the counter is... how many years can you not put a competitive team on the field before you feel the heat from your fans and your fellow owners.

Does McNair really want the other owners to have a reason to dig into him and go looking for a way to Sterling him?
 

Shelterdog

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If they are truly at an impasse, how many years does Watson have to hold out before he is unrestricted? Gronk sat out a year and still had to be traded by the Pats. This is where the NFL has so much leverage versus sports where they can at least play overseas (Japan for Baseball, Italy etc. for basketball, Europe for hockey) and still get a somewhat decent paycheck
I'm pretty sure the contract just rolls over if he never plays.

I think he can show up later in the season--maybe week ten--and earn a year towards free agency that way. The ramifications on the contract are pretty complex IIRC (there are fines, he has to pay some money back).
 

BusRaker

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Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
It's a pretty big shit show right now, though. Almost (albeit very different) to the "Ricky Williams I'll play football in Canada if you want let me smoke weed" level. With the sacrificed cap space and loss of salary I don't see it lasting more than a year, (or even to Week One) but it's fun to think about. I can't see the contract rolling over indefinitely, there must be a limit or he could finally report when he is 80 for shits and giggles
 

bakahump

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Losing 1/15th of your career isnt as terrible as it "used to be". Its 1 less year of wear and tear (behind a TERRIBLE line on a TERRIBLE Team). Maybe that makes his 50s a bit more enjoyable.

I mean I guess it means possible losing 1/15 of his career earnings. So instead of earning north of 450 Million he will only earn about 425 Million.
 

Saints Rest

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This is why the Texans are playing the Watson thing the way they are. Needing to trade Watson is manageable if they can get a fair return; if they let him essentially choose his destination, that’s a different story. (It’s ok for Wilson because he doesn’t appear to want out of Seattle at all costs the way Watson wants out of Houston.)

If I’m in the Texans’ shoes, I’m working the phones hard and telling everyone I speak to that if I read about our conversation in the press, they’re dead to me.
If I'm Caserio, I start with calls to Miami and NYJ (assuming that those two teams have indeed made initial inquiries as everyone is speculating), and say "OK, teams, it's open auction time. Opening bid is this year's 1/2 (or 1/3). I have a bar you must hurdle for additional assets, but you also must beat out the other. If I don't get what I need, I'll move down the first round; lots of teams want in on this, but you guys get first bids."
 

dynomite

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Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
Interesting question, I'm not sure.

Off the top of my head there was Le'Veon Bell sitting out the entirety of his last year before free agency, even though throughout training camp and the first few weeks of the season people kept expecting a resolution.

Ricky Williams, as mentioned, had a pretty interesting path.

Then there was the Michael Jordan "retirement" with the Bulls. Obviously a different set of circumstances, but I remember how surreal and unlikely all of that episode was.

And I guess Bo Jackson in '86 being infamously drafted by the Bucs with the #1 overall pick and instead just going to play for the Royals, sitting out the NFL season, and getting drafted by the Raiders in the 7th round '87.
 

mauf

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If I'm Caserio, I start with calls to Miami and NYJ (assuming that those two teams have indeed made initial inquiries as everyone is speculating), and say "OK, teams, it's open auction time. Opening bid is this year's 1/2 (or 1/3). I have a bar you must hurdle for additional assets, but you also must beat out the other. If I don't get what I need, I'll move down the first round; lots of teams want in on this, but you guys get first bids."
Totally agree that the Jets and Dolphins are the two teams best positioned to land Watson. I don’t see how the Texans can do a deal without getting back a plausible franchise QB; the Jets (2nd pick) and Dolphins (Tua) both can offer that.
 

BigSoxFan

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I just can't fathom how the Texans, despite all their bluster, wouldn't trade Watson before this year's draft. The odds of repairing that relationship are almost nil and you'd likely have an extremely messy holdout that would overshadow the team for as long as it lasts. And with JJ Watt and a new head coach, who exactly is leading the charge against that? Additionally, you would be setting back you rebuilding period at least a year.

What they need to do is announce he is available to the highest bidder and watch the insane packages roll in. And then you take the best possible package and move on. Losing Watson sucks but the Jets would gladly trade #2 and other picks/assets to get Watson so you'd be starting your rebuild with a talented QB prospect like Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. while also replenishing your depleted draft capital. You wait it out and you just delay the inevitable.

This will be a good test to see just how dysfunctional this organization is. They're reaching Jetsian levels now.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Losing 1/15th of your career isnt as terrible as it "used to be". Its 1 less year of wear and tear (behind a TERRIBLE line on a TERRIBLE Team). Maybe that makes his 50s a bit more enjoyable.

I mean I guess it means possible losing 1/15 of his career earnings. So instead of earning north of 450 Million he will only earn about 425 Million.
But why are we stopping at 1/15th? If he holds out for the entire year he doesn't get 'credit' for the year and his contract rolls over so he's in the same exact boat again next year, right? So then he's looking at 2/15ths, etc etc.
 

Saints Rest

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I just can't fathom how the Texans, despite all their bluster, wouldn't trade Watson before this year's draft. The odds of repairing that relationship are almost nil and you'd likely have an extremely messy holdout that would overshadow the team for as long as it lasts. And with JJ Watt and a new head coach, who exactly is leading the charge against that? Additionally, you would be setting back you rebuilding period at least a year.

What they need to do is announce he is available to the highest bidder and watch the insane packages roll in. And then you take the best possible package and move on. Losing Watson sucks but the Jets would gladly trade #2 and other picks/assets to get Watson so you'd be starting your rebuild with a talented QB prospect like Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. while also replenishing your depleted draft capital. You wait it out and you just delay the inevitable.

This will be a good test to see just how dysfunctional this organization is. They're reaching Jetsian levels now.
Agreed 100%. If they wait too long, teams will start to fall in love with the next big thing. God forbid they wait until after the draft, because by then, they (the Texans) lose the ability to excite their fans with the newest model.
 

Cellar-Door

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But why are we stopping at 1/15th? If he holds out for the entire year he doesn't get 'credit' for the year and his contract rolls over so he's in the same exact boat again next year, right? So then he's looking at 2/15ths, etc etc.
Sure, if hypothetically an NFL team was willing to just throw season after season away. I'm sure Caserio would definitely keep his job if he played hardball and made a strong run at worst team in league history 2 straight years. And Cal McNair would be thrilled with the constant talk about how he was a failson ruining his father's legacy, and the league would be thrilled with the consistent media coverage of the issue, and the inevitable offshoot into how NFL player contracts work.
 

luckiestman

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Sure, if hypothetically an NFL team was willing to just throw season after season away. I'm sure Caserio would definitely keep his job if he played hardball and made a strong run at worst team in league history 2 straight years. And Cal McNair would be thrilled with the constant talk about how he was a failson ruining his father's legacy, and the league would be thrilled with the consistent media coverage of the issue, and the inevitable offshoot into how NFL player contracts work.
What is the rule with the cap and Watsons salary? Does he count against the cap if he sits out. I know he owes the Texans $5M bucks if he sits.

Watson just signed this deal. He really going to retire if Houston plays hardball?
 

Oil Can Dan

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Sure, if hypothetically an NFL team was willing to just throw season after season away. I'm sure Caserio would definitely keep his job if he played hardball and made a strong run at worst team in league history 2 straight years. And Cal McNair would be thrilled with the constant talk about how he was a failson ruining his father's legacy, and the league would be thrilled with the consistent media coverage of the issue, and the inevitable offshoot into how NFL player contracts work.
Look I get it and I'm not saying it's some great awesome option for Houston, but that possibility does exist and so Watson can't totally dismiss it as a possibility. Wasn't it his father that made some comment about not letting the inmates run the asylum?
 

Cellar-Door

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What is the rule with the cap and Watsons salary? Does he count against the cap if he sits out. I know he owes the Texans $5M bucks if he sits.

Watson just signed this deal. He really going to retire if Houston plays hardball?
He doesn't count, but they also have to leave the cap open in case he reports so they also can't use it.
 

EvilEmpire

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I just can't fathom how the Texans, despite all their bluster, wouldn't trade Watson before this year's draft. The odds of repairing that relationship are almost nil and you'd likely have an extremely messy holdout that would overshadow the team for as long as it lasts. And with JJ Watt and a new head coach, who exactly is leading the charge against that? Additionally, you would be setting back you rebuilding period at least a year.

What they need to do is announce he is available to the highest bidder and watch the insane packages roll in. And then you take the best possible package and move on. Losing Watson sucks but the Jets would gladly trade #2 and other picks/assets to get Watson so you'd be starting your rebuild with a talented QB prospect like Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. while also replenishing your depleted draft capital. You wait it out and you just delay the inevitable.

This will be a good test to see just how dysfunctional this organization is. They're reaching Jetsian levels now.
There is still plenty of time for that to happen. I think they know they can't get the best value for Watson unless it includes one of the high picks in this years draft. The QB needy teams with high picks are going to rely on the draft for a QB solution, so those are the teams Houston wants to deal with, and obviously they know the timeline for when that needs to happen by is late April.

I think the posturing right now is all about convincing Watson that he's screwed for this next season unless he accepts the best deal Houston gets offered. Letting interested teams know that they're willing to burn a year absent a great deal probably doesn't hurt either.

I kind of expect Watson to wind up on the Dolphins. Maybe the Jets, but the Dolphins are a much more competitive franchise right now and even with some holes could still be great with Watson right away. I think they might be more motivated to make something happen.

Edit: I know there is some debate over whether Miami is "QB needy", but if Watson becomes available, I think they should be.
 
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joe dokes

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Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
This is definitely a branch of the Curt Flood tree. He sat out a season to have a say in where he would play. (The rest, as they say, is history)
 

Phil Plantier

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Agreed 100%. If they wait too long, teams will start to fall in love with the next big thing. God forbid they wait until after the draft, because by then, they (the Texans) lose the ability to excite their fans with the newest model.
There is still plenty of time for that to happen. I think they know they can't get the best value for Watson unless it includes one of the high picks in this years draft. The QB needy teams with high picks are going to rely on the draft for a QB solution, so those are the teams Houston wants to deal with, and obviously they know the timeline for when that needs to happen by is late April.

I think the posturing right now is all about convincing Watson that he's screwed for this next season unless he accepts the best deal Houston gets offered. Letting interested teams know that they're willing to burn a year absent a great deal probably doesn't hurt either.

I kind of expect Watson to wind up on the Dolphins. Maybe the Jets, but the Dolphins are a much more competitive franchise right now and even with some holes could still be great with Watson right away. I think they might be more motivated to make something happen.

Edit: I know there is some debate over whether Miami is "QB needy", but if Watson becomes available, I think they should be.
I believe that at the start of the draft is the only time the Texans could get picks in the next *4* drafts (instead of 3), so maybe they're building to have something in place on draft day.
 

mauf

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I kind of expect Watson to wind up on the Dolphins. Maybe the Jets, but the Dolphins are a much more competitive franchise right now and even with some holes could still be great with Watson right away. I think they might be more motivated to make something happen.
I haven’t looked at the Dolphins’ roster closely. Maybe @sodenj5 or @Clears Cleaver has a perspective on whether the Dolphins could keep most of their core intact for the next 2-3 years while absorbing Watson’s salary. If you think Tua will be average or slightly above-average, you might rather have a team that’s loaded with Tua than a team with holes and Watson. But if you can add Watson and keep the band together, I agree that’s the way to go.
 

EvilEmpire

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I haven’t looked at the Dolphins’ roster closely. Maybe @sodenj5 or @Clears Cleaver has a perspective on whether the Dolphins could keep most of their core intact for the next 2-3 years while absorbing Watson’s salary. If you think Tua will be average or slightly above-average, you might rather have a team that’s loaded with Tua than a team with holes and Watson. But if you can add Watson and keep the band together, I agree that’s the way to go.
That makes sense, but man, Watson is so good. Even with a weakened core, I think Watson could take them further even if they have to do some patching once they get him. It's always a challenge to maintain and keep depth even without spending a bunch of it on a big deal.

But maybe Tua will be great.
 

sodenj5

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I haven’t looked at the Dolphins’ roster closely. Maybe @sodenj5 or @Clears Cleaver has a perspective on whether the Dolphins could keep most of their core intact for the next 2-3 years while absorbing Watson’s salary. If you think Tua will be average or slightly above-average, you might rather have a team that’s loaded with Tua than a team with holes and Watson. But if you can add Watson and keep the band together, I agree that’s the way to go.
Yea so this has been discussed in the Miami thread a few times. Miami can fit Watson in, however they would be essentially punting all of their draft capital in the near term and lose almost all of their flexibility to improve the roster. You would be essentially dropping Watson onto last year’s roster and hoping for the best.

I’m of the belief that Miami would be better served long term keeping Tua and leveraging the third pick in the draft to maximize the team and the roster around him. Trade down, continue to accumulate assets, and continue stacking young, talented players around Tua.

While every draft pick won’t hit, in a few years, Miami could very well have a talented, deep nucleus of young players.
 

mauf

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Yea so this has been discussed in the Miami thread a few times. Miami can fit Watson in, however they would be essentially punting all of their draft capital in the near term and lose almost all of their flexibility to improve the roster. You would be essentially dropping Watson onto last year’s roster and hoping for the best.

I’m of the belief that Miami would be better served long term keeping Tua and leveraging the third pick in the draft to maximize the team and the roster around him. Trade down, continue to accumulate assets, and continue stacking young, talented players around Tua.

While every draft pick won’t hit, in a few years, Miami could very well have a talented, deep nucleus of young players.
How steep do you think the acquisition cost would be? I think Tua + #3 gets it done, unless the Texans prefer this year’s #2 to Tua and the Jets are willing to deal.

Not saying the rest of your analysis doesn’t hold together, but I don’t think the Dolphins would be parting with most of their draft capital — they’d just be giving the Texans their pick back from the Tunsil deal.
 

Harry Hooper

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He doesn't count, but they also have to leave the cap open in case he reports so they also can't use it.
That could be a game of chicken on top of the game of chicken if the Texans don't leave most of the cap space open. It's not the best look for Watson if he pivots off his steadfast refusal to play and makes a mid-season return which necessitates cutting a bunch of his teammates/fellow union members who worked hard through the dog days of training camp.
 

Cellar-Door

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That could be a game of chicken on top of the game of chicken if the Texans don't leave most of the cap space open. It's not the best look for Watson if he pivots off his steadfast refusal to play and makes a mid-season return which necessitates cutting a bunch of his teammates/fellow union members who worked hard through the dog days of training camp.
It's hard to find good sources for the minutiae, but my reading of things is they couldn't do that.
Basically they couldn't sign a deal that would put them over the cap should he report. They would have to wait until he'd forfeited enough game checks to sign players.

If I'm reading it correctly, the league will not approve a contract that would cause you to go over the cap. So if Watson is on the books for 35M, you don't get 35M in cap space back the day he doesn't report... you get a portion back each week as he forfeits checks.

I guess realistically though it might only be a 1 year issue, since you could roll the space over.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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If Miami gets Deshaun effing Watson for ONLY Tua and the #3 overall that is highway robbery. I’d be stunned, and as a Pats fan I’d be pissed. It’s far more likely, IMO, that Houston gets Tua and the #3 overall and another #1, if not more. Watson is a top 3 impact player in the league and he’s signed long term.

I can’t imagine how Caserio sleeps at night. It seemed like such a plum gig.

edit typos and clarifying