2021

redsox40

lurker
Aug 3, 2020
1
How much are we looking at having to spend in the off season if the luxury tax is reset?
I would go after bauer and alex wood.then you could go erod/sale/bauer/wood/eovaldi.
That should be a massive improvement over this year..the bullpen needs more lock down options...thoughts?
 
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amRadio

lurker
Feb 7, 2019
430
If you read it like beat poetry and every ellipsis is three whole beats on the bongos, it actually has really good energy.
 

Sin Duda

lurker
Jul 16, 2005
74
(B)Austin Texas
how much are we looking at having to spend in the off season if the luxury tax is reset? I would go after bauer and maybe see if he would take a one year deal at 20-22 million....alex wood has a good arm but injury prone maybe take a chance on him at 5 or 6 million...then you could go erod/sale/bauer/wood/eovaldi ...that should be a massive improvement over this year....they need a wipeout closer too if workman leaves...
Thanks for starting this conversation RS40. I'll still watch the 2020 bunch but with an eye towards the kids and what they might offer. I have no playoff expectations at all after this weekend.

It will be fascinating to me how a "draft and develop" kind of guy in Bloom works to rebuild the pitching staff, especially the starters. Is it reasonable to expect Sales back by Spring Training? Does E-Rod recover sufficiently? Does Bloom add a starter or two via free agency, and, if so, does he go middle-of-the-road or make a big splash? How about Hauck and Mata, will they be #6 & 7? Does Kyle Hart slot in somewhere?
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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Mar 16, 2005
15,443
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how much are we looking at having to spend in the off season if the luxury tax is reset? I would go after bauer and maybe see if he would take a one year deal at 20-22 million....alex wood has a good arm but injury prone maybe take a chance on him at 5 or 6 million...then you could go erod/sale/bauer/wood/eovaldi ...that should be a massive improvement over this year....they need a wipeout closer too if workman leaves...
Please flesh this out more. Why do you think Bauer and Wood are good options at those numbers, etc..
And punctuation and the shift key are your friends. And ours.
 
As much as I hate to say it, I don't think the Red Sox are going to compete in 2021. The Sox were behind the Rays and Yankees by a margin last year and that margin has only grown wider. To make matters worse, both the Rays and Yankees figure to graduate more talent than the Sox over the next year or two, although prospects are always unpredictable.

Even if Sale and E-Rod are healthy I'm not sure there is a realistic series of transactions that will make the Red Sox the favorites next year over the Yankees or the Rays, let alone both teams.

At that point I think I'd rather see the Sox do an actual rebuild rather than half ass it.

I wonder if the Sox should be considering moving assets that are aren't controlled through 2024 or so. If the team can sign Devers to a nice extension then that'd be great, but if not I have to think there needs to be serious consideration toward trading him. Same goes for Vazquez. I'm sure that sounds like complete heresy, but right now I think the Red Sox need to make up a lot of ground on the Rays and Yankees over the next couple of years in order to compete in the mid decade. If the team uses resources now to further a very faint chance of a wild card berth in the next two or three years I worry that the mid 2020's will arrive and the Sox will still be in the exact same position
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The only thing the team should not be doing in the next couple years is locking into anyone who isn't assured to be a long term future asset. Extending Devers is fine. Maybe extending E-Rod. Otherwise, no need to do anything dramatic. As long as they're not throwing money/years at non-superstar veterans (hello Pablo Sandoval/Hanley Ramirez), I don't think they need to be stripping the roster for parts or tanking for draft picks or whatever. This franchise shouldn't be one that loses 100 games for a couple years just to set up the next big run. Rather see a 2013-style re-build (veterans on short, reasonable contracts filling holes in the existing roster) than a 2011-2013 era Astros tankapalooza.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
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Oct 31, 2013
34,789
You probably can't do it in this market (Boston), but I would build around the left side of the infield and trade every veteran with value and get as many high risk/high reward prospects as you can and rebuild like the CWS (and perhaps like HOU).

And E5Yaz is correct, I'm in the minority once again.
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,075
Arkansas
here how to 'fix' this team
1 hope sale and e-rod can be a 1-2
2 do not make a big signing util after 2022
3 go hot and heary on mid jan early feb signed for 1-2 year deals
4 this trade deadline trade J D mart if u can JBJ to a NL team like St louis
5 make a run at any yankee bullpen guy
6 use wavers
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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You probably can't do it in this market (Boston), but I would build around the left side of the infield and trade every veteran with value and get as many high risk/high reward prospects as you can and rebuild like the CWS (and perhaps like HOU).

And E5Yaz is correct, I'm in the minority once again.
Will Xander stick around for that type of rebuild?
 

WrenHorn

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Nov 12, 2009
22
Brighton, Massachusetts
A lot of 2021 will really depend on how much and for what the Red Sox move from the 2020 squad. While I expect teams may be hesitant to pay a significant premium for rentals, the Red Sox can sell some pieces with term. To me, a lot depends on the following guys:
  • Nathan Eovaldi -- he's suddenly maybe more important to this team than we thought, even at 17M. Will a team take on the final two years and 34M of his deal as a deadline buy? Could we get something back if we subsidized some of those final two years? Is that worth it to us given how few major league SP we have?
  • J.D. Martinez -- I don't see Martinez has an opt-out risk at this point considering what the market is likely to be, and at the same time I expect his trade value to perhaps have improved given the 2021 commitment to the DH. I think the Red Sox could fetch a decent return for him if he hits to the deadline.
  • Mitch Moreland -- Like Martinez, I wonder if there's a possibility to get a real return on Moreland; 1/2 the league is now running into DH positions they weren't anticipating having, and Moreland is cheap, just 3.5M T option next year.
  • Matt Barnes -- Barnes will be a free-agent after 2021 and is our second best RP, but if there's an opportunity for a return on a guy that is headed to a walk year next year, might be time on him.
  • Heath Hembree -- Hembree has looked terrific to start this year; he's always had nice stuff and looks to be healthy. As another guy who expires in 2021, if there's a return there that's good it is worth exploring rather than losing leverage on a potential rental in 2021.
Couple those five names with potentially productive rentals like Jackie Bradley, Jr., Kevin Pillar and Brandon Workman, I'd hope Bloom would have some activity going -- I wouldn't expect all to go (for instance, if Pillar goes they probably hang onto JBJ, I doubt they trade all three of Workman, Barnes and Hembree, Moreland may have taken a discount to stick here with the understanding he wouldn't be traded) but the hope would be to get a few major league pieces back for 2021.

--

Like others have said, though, I don't think 2021 looks like a compete year, but a few things I'm interested in:
  1. If Martinez/Moreland go, does it make sense to trial Devers at 1B? Whatever metric you look at over at 3B makes him look pretty rough [F%, Rdrs, etc.]
  2. What will some of these pitchers show as the year goes on? You're hoping that you have at least a few things emerge as potential contributors to the 2021 club -- I've personally been impressed with Valdez, Brewer [potentially as a Ryne Stanek type who you don't 100% trust because of meh control], Osich [middle reliever] and Mazza [small sample, but I liked him coming into the year as a competent groundballer/innings eater]. I was optimistic that we'd get more from Hall, Weber and Springs, but that has been a disaster to date. Hall and Weber may not have major league stuff but I'd like to see more from Springs. Also interested to see whether Walden and Brasier were just pan flashes.
  3. What exactly do we have in Andrew Benintendi here? Moving on from JBJ/Pillar and moving Beni to CF would put less stress on the bat if he can handle the position.
  4. How good is Christian Vazquez? SSS but holy cow. Is he still a 7-9 hitter or is he a 5/6 guy now?
In terms of positions I'd pursue, I'd like the Red Sox to sign a legitimate, competent all-around 3B ... plus glove, plus bat type. Rendon would've been awesome. I'm in favor of shifting Devers to 1B. I'd also like to see if Benintendi can handle CF so that I could hide a defensively mediocre OF in LF with a big stick. Not sure it's smart to pay much for pitching, so I'd continue to kick the can for Martin Perez types [6.75m option might be reasonable] to add depth.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Jul 19, 2005
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You probably can't do it in this market (Boston), but I would build around the left side of the infield and trade every veteran with value and get as many high risk/high reward prospects as you can and rebuild like the CWS (and perhaps like HOU).

And E5Yaz is correct, I'm in the minority once again.
I think there’s a non-zero chance that some version of the Cubs/Astros rebuild happens here, but I think Xander would almost certainly be dealt as part of it. I think this scenario is more likely than the one where they throw a bunch of money at some FAs. This year’s group looks weak to me anyway.
 

nvalvo

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  1. If Martinez/Moreland go, does it make sense to trial Devers at 1B? Whatever metric you look at over at 3B makes him look pretty rough [F%, Rdrs, etc.]
Whatever metric you look at except OAA, which has him fourth in baseball.
I don’t know, either.
 

Steve Dillard

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Oct 7, 2003
5,127
A lot of 2021 will really depend on how much and for what the Red Sox move from the 2020 squad. While I expect teams may be hesitant to pay a significant premium for rentals, the Red Sox can sell some pieces with term. To me, a lot depends on the following guys:

Couple those five names with potentially productive rentals like Jackie Bradley, Jr., Kevin Pillar and Brandon Workman, I'd hope Bloom would have some activity going ....

--

Like others have said, though, I don't think 2021 looks like a compete year, but a few things I'm interested in:

  1. How good is Christian Vazquez? SSS but holy cow. Is he still a 7-9 hitter or is he a 5/6 guy now?

So, let me pose the question that you seem to have answered when you didn't list Vazquez in the trade group. What if you conclude this is the high mark for him, both in his hitting and in a catcher's longevity (he'll turn 30 in two weeks)? If you are in year one of a three year plan, at which point Vazquez is 33, do you possibly get a lot of pieces and sell high on a cost controlled guy?
 
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RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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In my mind, here are the only locks to be on the roster next year.
Locks because of talent
Sale
Devers
Bogaerts
Rodriguez
Vazquez
Verdugo
Hernandez
Eovaldi

Not Locks but should be on roster because of talent compared to cost
Peraza
Chavis
Hembree
Taylor

Trade Candidates at 2020 deadline
Benintendi
Moreland
Workman
Barnes
Pillar

Everyone not on this list in my mind is either not a future piece or can leave at the end of the year other than JD Martinez. Obviously I would want to extend JD. Benintendi in my mind is someone that I would not choose to move forward with. He's not gotten any better since his rookie year. If you can get a decent pitching prospect from a team who thinks they can fix AB, I think you pull the trigger. Someone mentioned trading Eovaldi---I would not do that. When Sale gets back, you have a solid top 3 in the rotation with Sale/Eovaldi/Rodriguez.
 

nattysez

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"When Sale gets back" -- I admire your optimism.

It's hard to imagine JDM opting out of his contract at this point. Is anyone going to pay a DH-only player more than what's left on his Sox deal in money or years? Which is a long way of saying that I think he'll be around for the rest of his deal barring a trade.

Has anyone seen a good analysis of what's going on with Benintendi? It feels like 2018 may have been an annus mirabilis, as that year is sandwiched between years of OPS+ of 103 and 100. And I don't think we should put too much stock in his 2016, as he only had 118 PA.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Apr 5, 2014
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The pending free agents won't get you anything in trades, trading Bogaerts or Devers would be ridiculous, trading Eovaldi will just make things that much harder going forward.

All signs point towards Vazquez being the best and most obvious trade piece. Trade him while he is hot, trading him while he has 2 years of control left, trade him before he turns 30. He's not a building block, he is a luxury for a team that is in win-now mode.
 

WrenHorn

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 12, 2009
22
Brighton, Massachusetts
A lot of 2021 will really depend on how much and for what the Red Sox move from the 2020 squad. While I expect teams may be hesitant to pay a significant premium for rentals, the Red Sox can sell some pieces with term. To me, a lot depends on the following guys:
  • Nathan Eovaldi -- he's suddenly maybe more important to this team than we thought, even at 17M. Will a team take on the final two years and 34M of his deal as a deadline buy? Could we get something back if we subsidized some of those final two years? Is that worth it to us given how few major league SP we have?
  • J.D. Martinez -- I don't see Martinez has an opt-out risk at this point considering what the market is likely to be, and at the same time I expect his trade value to perhaps have improved given the 2021 commitment to the DH. I think the Red Sox could fetch a decent return for him if he hits to the deadline.
  • Mitch Moreland -- Like Martinez, I wonder if there's a possibility to get a real return on Moreland; 1/2 the league is now running into DH positions they weren't anticipating having, and Moreland is cheap, just 3.5M T option next year.
  • Matt Barnes -- Barnes will be a free-agent after 2021 and is our second best RP, but if there's an opportunity for a return on a guy that is headed to a walk year next year, might be time on him.
  • Heath Hembree -- Hembree has looked terrific to start this year; he's always had nice stuff and looks to be healthy. As another guy who expires in 2021, if there's a return there that's good it is worth exploring rather than losing leverage on a potential rental in 2021.
Couple those five names with potentially productive rentals like Jackie Bradley, Jr., Kevin Pillar and Brandon Workman, I'd hope Bloom would have some activity going -- I wouldn't expect all to go (for instance, if Pillar goes they probably hang onto JBJ, I doubt they trade all three of Workman, Barnes and Hembree, Moreland may have taken a discount to stick here with the understanding he wouldn't be traded) but the hope would be to get a few major league pieces back for 2021.

--

Like others have said, though, I don't think 2021 looks like a compete year, but a few things I'm interested in:
  1. If Martinez/Moreland go, does it make sense to trial Devers at 1B? Whatever metric you look at over at 3B makes him look pretty rough [F%, Rdrs, etc.]
  2. What will some of these pitchers show as the year goes on? You're hoping that you have at least a few things emerge as potential contributors to the 2021 club -- I've personally been impressed with Valdez, Brewer [potentially as a Ryne Stanek type who you don't 100% trust because of meh control], Osich [middle reliever] and Mazza [small sample, but I liked him coming into the year as a competent groundballer/innings eater]. I was optimistic that we'd get more from Hall, Weber and Springs, but that has been a disaster to date. Hall and Weber may not have major league stuff but I'd like to see more from Springs. Also interested to see whether Walden and Brasier were just pan flashes.
  3. What exactly do we have in Andrew Benintendi here? Moving on from JBJ/Pillar and moving Beni to CF would put less stress on the bat if he can handle the position.
  4. How good is Christian Vazquez? SSS but holy cow. Is he still a 7-9 hitter or is he a 5/6 guy now?
In terms of positions I'd pursue, I'd like the Red Sox to sign a legitimate, competent all-around 3B ... plus glove, plus bat type. Rendon would've been awesome. I'm in favor of shifting Devers to 1B. I'd also like to see if Benintendi can handle CF so that I could hide a defensively mediocre OF in LF with a big stick. Not sure it's smart to pay much for pitching, so I'd continue to kick the can for Martin Perez types [6.75m option might be reasonable] to add depth.
So, let me pose the question that you seem to have answered when you didn't list Vazquez in the trade group. What if you conclude this is the high mark for him, both in his hitting and in a catcher's longevity (he'll turn 30 in two weeks)? If you are in year one of a three year plan, at which point Vazquez is 33, do you possibly get a lot of pieces and sell high on a cost controlled guy?
I'm a little torn on Christian. Catchers bloom late, and I don't think there's enough of a sample at this point still to know exactly what he is. The thing with Vazquez is that he could have a massive offensive regression at this point and still be well worth his contract. I would agree that logistically it's probably the smart decision to make him available at the deadline, but how often do we see all star level catchers getting moved? I can't recall many trades involving them and it's tough to know exactly what it's worth. Plawecki has looked competent and if it's a true re-tool it's probably smart to deal him, but I'd probably hold for the offseason there to give teams more time to eval.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Apr 22, 2016
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The pending free agents won't get you anything in trades, trading Bogaerts or Devers would be ridiculous, trading Eovaldi will just make things that much harder going forward.

All signs point towards Vazquez being the best and most obvious trade piece. Trade him while he is hot, trading him while he has 2 years of control left, trade him before he turns 30. He's not a building block, he is a luxury for a team that is in win-now mode.
The logic you apply to not trading Eovaldi would equally (if not more) apply to not trading Vazquez, though, no? In other words, if you trade Vazquez, you now have an absolute sinkhole at the catcher position with nothing in the prospect pipeline and you’ve basically just created a problem for yourself that you didn’t have before. Maybe you can go sign Realmuto in the offseason but that’s not guaranteed and then you’re basically just paying more for the same production.
None of which to say Bloom shouldn’t be taking calls on Vazquez, but I’d think they’d have to be getting back a legit top-50 prospect (or a collection of a bunch of slightly lower prospects) in return to make such a trade worthwhile.
 
For those advocating a 2013 style rebuild, I'd urge you to consider how different the situation is now when compared to the early to mid 2010's:

  • The Sox got a ton of value from the farm system during this time period. The team wasn't in a position was way behind both the Yankees and Rays at both the major league AND minor league levels. The Sox graduated lots of major league talent and traded more talent to fill key gaps throughout the 2010's. As things stand now that does not look to be repeatable, and especially not at a rate that will outperform what the Yankees and especially the Rays can get from their farm systems.
  • There are fewer ways of leveraging financial advantages than there were in the early 2010's. The Sox used to be able to flex in the draft and in IFA signings but both of those avenues are markedly less viable now. The Sox can still take advantage in FA signings, but that won't really help much at the moment against the Yankees. It might in a couple of years when the Yankees overall will be getting more expensive while the Sox have had a chance to trim fat. The Sox can have a significant advantage over the Rays, which should at least help offset their tremendous farm system advantage.
So that leaves the Red Sox with the following avenues to increase their standing:

  • Outperform on the FA market
  • Advantageous trades
  • Draft/Player development
  • Analytics
The team should obviously be putting resources into the last two, but draft and player development will be greatly aided by having a better draft position (especially if an international draft gets implemented). Trades will require giving up valuable talent, which is why I think the Red Sox need to be thinking about whether there are players that are going to be valuable in the next couple of years that could be turned into value that is likely to materialize in 2023-2025 or so. I think we are mostly in agreement about the FA market -- spending big on long term FA deals now is not a good idea for the Sox.

A 2013 style rebuild just doesn't seem likely to provide enough of a boost in the current environment.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Apr 22, 2016
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More generally I just don’t agree that the Red Sox are at the point where they need a total teardown. The offense isn’t really a problem (obviously there are places they can improve) and but for injury luck this year they’d have had a decent if flawed starting rotation. The bullpen is obviously a total dumpster fire but that is also the area theoretically easiest to improve year-to-year.

Assuming the luxury tax penalties do in fact reset this offseason, they’ll have all (or whatever portion they wish to spend) of the money previously spent on Mookie and half of Price. Sandoval’s money will be off the books after this year as well, and Pedroia’s the following year. Obviously some of that will have to go to raises for Devers, but that could be offset by trading Benintendi and trading or just not re-signing JBJ.

All of which means that with a few shrewd signings, better injury luck, etc. the Sox could absolutely be back in contention as early as next year and certainly by 2022. Obviously developing the farm system is also an important goal but I don’t think there needs to be an Astros-style multi-year tankfest to achieve that goal.
 
All of which means that with a few shrewd signings, better injury luck, etc. the Sox could absolutely be back in contention as early as next year and certainly by 2022.
I guess it really depends on what you mean by contention. Last year the Yankees were absolutely ravaged by injuries and finished 19 games ahead of the Red Sox. And then the Yankees added Cole while we lost Betts. That's just a huge, huge hole.

Sale, Eovaldi and E-Rod are all very injury prone. If the starting assumption is that we've got all three of these for most of the season, then I think we're already describing an unlikely scenario. And even in that scenario I don't think it's at all clear that the Red Sox are competitive beyond having some shot at a wild card berth.

An offense that "isn't really a problem" and "decent if flawed starting rotation" is just not enough to go up against the Yankees and Rays right now even if the bullpen can be improved to the point where it's legitimately good.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Apr 22, 2016
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An offense that "isn't really a problem" and "decent if flawed starting rotation" is just not enough to go up against the Yankees and Rays right now even if the bullpen can be improved to the point where it's legitimately good.
I think it would be a huge mistake for the Red Sox to base any decisions off of how good or bad they think division rivals will be given how fast things change in that regard (SSS, but this year so far the Rays are only a game better than the Sox). You could have made the exact same argument for the Rays after 2018 ("sure we won 90 games but we still finished 10 games back of the Yankees and 18 of the Sox and both teams are mostly bringing back their core players, there's no way we can compete with them without a total rebuild"). But, instead, the Rays made one big signing (Charlie Morton), made a bunch of smart-but-not-flashy trades, and went on to secure a wild card spot.

Compare that to the Astros, which prior to their teardown in 2011 or thereabouts had won 82 games (2006), 73 games (2007), 86 games (2008), 74 games (2009), and 86 games (2010). They had been mediocre-to-bad for years before their rebuild and had very little in the way of cost-controlled major league players.

To be clear, the Sox aren't in exactly the same position as the 2018 Rays, who had a much better farm system than the Sox do now, so certainly Bloom needs to be on his A-game over the next couple of years and they have to hope that they nail some draft picks and otherwise get a bit of luck. But nor are they in the same position as the 2010 Astros.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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The Rays never have to do a total rebuild because they're forever restocking the system via trades of players that price themselves out of the market.

As for Boston, they can't get right back into the luxury tax boat because they just don't have the low-cost talent to fill out the roster. And this doesn't mean Rafi-types. Pitching depth, bullpen depth, etc.. They just don't have the ability at the moment to competently fill in around shiny new FA signings. This year will suck as will next year (most likely). Next year is going to be Sale's rehab year and god only knows what long term effects E-Rod's bout of covid-19 will be. The '21 rotation will be better, but likely still a radioactive zone.

2022, on the other hand, is likely the year they make their return as some of the high-end talent in A ball approaches Boston giving them the ability to better manage payroll.
 

nighthob

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Oh, and anyone that wants Eovaldi to help them with the Yankees will almost certainly find him available for the right price. But Vazquez likely isn't because you really do need catching and the Sox system is pretty barren there. (Of course if you ponied up a real catching prospect and a top 50 guy, even CV would be buyable.)
 

LoweTek

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Amongst all this speculation, I think you guys may want to consider the possibility E-Rod may have played his last game. We don't know the extent of the damage to his heart but any siginificance or any considerable risk which may be permanent could convince him (or his doctors) he should not return.