2022-2023 General Celtics thread

kieckeredinthehead

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I know you've tapped out but those are very tricky questions to ask and answer as you are well aware. My response would be that we can and should be asking if coaching decisions contributed to those outcomes. What we should not do is conclude that they either were or were not because its almost impossible to prove.

Back to MPG, I have a bias here and its that these people are generally young, healthy and they are built for hooping. Fatigue is a real issue for NBA players but it really feels like some of the complaints about the C's workload here aren't based on anything other than personal preference. Per your post and the link I shared, its clear that fatigue/game load contribute to injuries but how much is an open question. Maybe we can at least wait for a bad outcome before critiquing workload.
EDIT: I messed up the model parameters in my post last night; the decline in probability vs. minutes is approximately linear, but the model output is of course still in logit form, corrected numbers below.

I looked at play-by-play data for every game from the 2019-2020 season and calculated the impact of minutes played and shot type on shot success. For every additional minute played in a game, success rate goes down by (using a binomial model but within the range of observed minutes it's almost perfectly linear):

2-pt hook: 0.2 percentage pts 0.1 percentage pts
2-pt jump: 0.1 0.02 percentage pts
2-pt layup: 0.1 0.02 percentage pts
3-pt jump: 0.1 0.04 percentage pts

That doesn't look like a lot, but if at the beginning of the game you're a 40% 36% 3-pt shooter, it means that 40 minutes into the game you'll be a a 34.7% shooter; and at 50 minutes in, you'll be a 33.3% 34.3% shooter. But that's not all. As the game goes on and players get more tired, drives to the basket go down and shots from deep go up - in regulation, dunks, layups and hook shots make up 36% of players' attempts. By the first OT, that's down to 33% and by second OT it's 31%. As you would expect, 3 point attempts make up the difference, 38% of attempts in regulation and 40% in the first OT. By the second OT, 3 point attempts make up 47% of all shots. Players get tired, they start bombing from deep, and they make them at far worse percentages than they did when they were fresh.

Anybody who watches the NBA with regularity can see this with their own eyes without having to do hours of data analytics. Overtime puts unusual physical stress on the body (Scanlan et al. 2019), and mental fatigue reduces basketball performance (Cao et al. 2022). One need only look at the 4 overtime Portland-Denver game to see how much player performance suffers due to fatigue, and what a huge advantage a team would have to put fresh legs in; and it's why CJ McCollum (60 minutes) and Dame Lillard (58) missed every shot they took in the final OT and Seth Curry (19 minutes) and Rodney Hood (23) won it - because Mike Malone was too stubborn to take his starters out, despite Jokic (65 minutes) repeatedly turning the ball over and missing free throws and Jamal Murray (55 minutes) building a brick wall. Or look closer to home at Jimmy Butler's ill-fated 3 at the end of the Conference Finals last year. If you go back and read the threads, you'll see the general consensus was he no longer had the legs to drive to the basket and the 3 was his only chance... despite being a, uh, 23% shooter from 3 last year, and playing all 48 minutes which, by my model, would make him more like a 16.5% shooter from deep.

The Panglossian "all coaches know better because of their internal data analytics team" nonsense would be fine if we could all be posting on the Sons of Red Auerbach, but nobody on here is a coach and nobody has access to the kinds of data they do. The eye test is perfectly fine for this kind of thing - the Celtics looked tired in OT last night and a pair of fresh legs almost certainly would have helped. Whether it goes over well in the locker room to take some starters out in favor of the deep bench; or whether it's worth giving starters the experience of playing in tight games late on lots of minutes - those are fine questions. But people shouldn't have to write a dissertation to post casual observations from the games on this board.

edited to add: Of the Celtics' five losses, three have been in overtime. They've lost all three overtime games they've played in. The starters have played every minute of those OTs (*except last night, when Grant played all of OT instead of White, although Grant had played more minutes up to that point). I'll spare you further details, but suffice to say that last night the Heat's starters all had significantly fewer minutes going into OT.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I looked at play-by-play data for every game from the 2019-2020 season and calculated the impact of minutes played and shot type on shot success. For every additional minute played in a game, success rate goes down by (using a binomial model but within the range of observed minutes it's almost perfectly linear):

2-pt hook: 0.2 percentage pts
2-pt jump: 0.1
2-pt layup: 0.1
3-pt jump: 0.1

That doesn't look like a lot, but if at the beginning of the game you're a 40% 3-pt shooter, it means that 40 minutes into the game you'll be a a 34.7% shooter; and at 50 minutes in, you'll be a 33.3% shooter. But that's not all. As the game goes on and players get more tired, drives to the basket go down and shots from deep go up - in regulation, dunks, layups and hook shots make up 36% of players' attempts. By the first OT, that's down to 33% and by second OT it's 31%. As you would expect, 3 point attempts make up the difference, 38% of attempts in regulation and 40% in the first OT. By the second OT, 3 point attempts make up 47% of all shots. Players get tired, they start bombing from deep, and they make them at far worse percentages than they did when they were fresh.

Anybody who watches the NBA with regularity can see this with their own eyes without having to do hours of data analytics. Overtime puts unusual physical stress on the body (Scanlan et al. 2019), and mental fatigue reduces basketball performance (Cao et al. 2022). One need only look at the 4 overtime Portland-Denver game to see how much player performance suffers due to fatigue, and what a huge advantage a team would have to put fresh legs in; and it's why CJ McCollum (60 minutes) and Dame Lillard (58) missed every shot they took in the final OT and Seth Curry (19 minutes) and Rodney Hood (23) won it - because Mike Malone was too stubborn to take his starters out, despite Jokic (65 minutes) repeatedly turning the ball over and missing free throws and Jamal Murray (55 minutes) building a brick wall. Or look closer to home at Jimmy Butler's ill-fated 3 at the end of the Conference Finals last year. If you go back and read the threads, you'll see the general consensus was he no longer had the legs to drive to the basket and the 3 was his only chance... despite being a, uh, 23% shooter from 3 last year, and playing all 48 minutes which, by my model, would make him more like a 16.5% shooter from deep.

The Panglossian "all coaches know better because of their internal data analytics team" nonsense would be fine if we could all be posting on the Sons of Red Auerbach, but nobody on here is a coach and nobody has access to the kinds of data they do. The eye test is perfectly fine for this kind of thing - the Celtics looked tired in OT last night and a pair of fresh legs almost certainly would have helped. Whether it goes over well in the locker room to take some starters out in favor of the deep bench; or whether it's worth giving starters the experience of playing in tight games late on lots of minutes - those are fine questions. But people shouldn't have to write a dissertation to post casual observations from the games on this board.
Two points of clarification - if I came across as arguing that any coach is infallible, that was not my intent.

Case in point, after reading your post its fair to wonder how Mazzulla riding Tatum, Brown and Smart at career high MPG affects them as the year progresses. If that trend continues and their performance falls off we may have plenty to criticize.

Right now its hard to argue that there is anything to complain about unless this recent loss becomes a trend. I assume the Celtics staff - not just the coaches but up the chain - monitors player usage/fatigue/mpg vs production etc really closely. Perhaps that's wrong.

Finally, I don't recall appealing for dissertations. Just context like you provided.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Back to MPG, I have a bias here and its that these people are generally young, healthy and they are built for hooping. Fatigue is a real issue for NBA players but it really feels like some of the complaints about the C's workload here aren't based on anything other than personal preference. Per your post and the link I shared, its clear that fatigue/game load contribute to injuries but how much is an open question. Maybe we can at least wait for a bad outcome before critiquing workload.
The problem with the bolded is that we're talking about the NBA. To a first approximation, everyone in the league is "generally young, healthy, and built for hooping." The Celtics are probably incrementally younger and healthier than most other teams, but only incrementally. It's not as if the reast of the league is guys in their late 30s who use crutches when not on the court. SO, are the Celtics out of step with the rest of the league is a reasonable question to ask that can be answered empirically.

This is a problem and needs to be fixed. Yesterday, there were zero substutions from the middle of of Q4 to the end of OT. Why not rotate in Brogdon, White, and/or Hauser, even if only for a play or two? Instead they were all glued to the bench while 5 probably exhausted players were performing at a subpar level.
It's not a shock to me that they would not sub Hauser in in that kind of situation. About the only rationale I can see for giving Hauser a look would be if you are setting up an ATO play and you trust Hauser to come in cold and bury a three.

It is a slightly different issue with White and Brogdon. At one level, they did not play because Grant played an excellent game, better than either of them.

But not finding a way to using Brogdon there was troubling, as was Brogdon's supar performance in this game. Brogdon was brought in here to make the offense flow, because he can score (by driving or via catch and shoot), create (for himself and others), and handle the ball. All things the Celtics struggled with in the playoffs last year. But looking at this Miami game in isolation... the Celtics had trouble handling the ball, creating offense, scoring... and Brogdon was so unable to help that Mazzulla didn't even consider him in late regulation and OT. Also, for the year so far, Brogdon has a career high turnover percentage and number of turnovers per 36 minutes.

Why didn't we see Brogdon late? Maybe Mazzulla should have brought him in. He could have gone offense/defense with Smart or Grant or Horford. But it is possible that the reason Brogdon didn't play was because Mazzulla didn't think he could help in this game, and, if so, that is concerning.

The other name worth mentioning is Payton Pritchard. He's shown an ability to come in and give the Celtics a spark off the bench, especially in home games. They needed one yesterday, and Mazzulla didn't even give him a look even as the guys on the court pissed away a good lead and lost. I think that was a coaching error. But the time for Pritchard would have been late 3rd or to start the 4th, not late game.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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I don’t think it’s necessarily any more complicated than Joe is a new coach and it’s important to him to show respect to the team’s best players vis-a-vis finishing a close game. And also important to see what they do in a close, late, and a bit ragged situation (similar to his TO philosophy so far).

I’d lean more toward experimentation in the regular season but there is plenty of time.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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I messed up the model interpretation. Corrected above. I still think the numbers support that combining the decline in 3-pt shooting effectiveness with the increase in 3-pt attempts (presumably b/c of tired legs) would suggest that putting in a microwave type to run circles around tired defenders is a reasonable approach for coaches to consider; the kind of non-intuitive strategy informed by data that SoSH used to embrace in the first W. Bush administration.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The problem with the bolded is that we're talking about the NBA. To a first approximation, everyone in the league is "generally young, healthy, and built for hooping." The Celtics are probably incrementally younger and healthier than most other teams, but only incrementally. It's not as if the reast of the league is guys in their late 30s who use crutches when not on the court. SO, are the Celtics out of step with the rest of the league is a reasonable question to ask that can be answered empirically.
If your concerns are over the Heat loss or how the Cs are spending their bullets on the regular season, I have nothing for you. They are 18-5, the data doesn't show Mazzulla running the team into the ground, even with the aforementioned increase in MPG and I am not getting sucked into the madness of analyzing one loss vs a tough team.

People can and will monitor those things but until we see the harm - and a single December loss to Miami after the team has been on fire doesn't qualify in my book - it seems silly to worry about it.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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If your concerns are over the Heat loss or how the Cs are spending their bullets on the regular season, I have nothing for you. They are 18-5, the data doesn't show Mazzulla running the team into the ground, even with the aforementioned increase in MPG and I am not getting sucked into the madness of analyzing one loss vs a tough team.

People can and will monitor those things but until we see the harm - and a single December loss to Miami after the team has been on fire doesn't qualify in my book - it seems silly to worry about it.
You keep talking about "running the team into the ground" and "long-term injuries," which has absolutely nothing to do with what I'm responding to. I'm addressing the question of single game usage when it goes into overtime. A few people commented that it's poor in-game strategy, although almost universally accepted by basketball coaches, to overwork your starters. At your request, I've provided hard evidence that in game, players get worse offensively the more they play. I'm not talking about a single loss to Miami, I'm talking about any time a game goes into overtime. When your starters play five more minutes than expected, they suffer physical and mental decline (you can check my references) that causes them to take more, worse shots - that's what the data says. In 2019-2020, players averaged 36% on 3-pt shots in Qs 1-4. In the first overtime, they dropped to 31%. In the second overtime, they dropped to 27%. And yet, as I showed above, they took more 3's in overtime. This isn't "madness" or "silly" - a few people said coaches shouldn't play starters so much in overtime, you said somebody should present the data, so I did.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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You keep talking about "running the team into the ground" and "long-term injuries," which has absolutely nothing to do with what I'm responding to. I'm addressing the question of single game usage when it goes into overtime. A few people commented that it's poor in-game strategy, although almost universally accepted by basketball coaches, to overwork your starters. At your request, I've provided hard evidence that in game, players get worse offensively the more they play. I'm not talking about a single loss to Miami, I'm talking about any time a game goes into overtime. When your starters play five more minutes than expected, they suffer physical and mental decline (you can check my references) that causes them to take more, worse shots - that's what the data says. In 2019-2020, players averaged 36% on 3-pt shots in Qs 1-4. In the first overtime, they dropped to 31%. In the second overtime, they dropped to 27%. And yet, as I showed above, they took more 3's in overtime. This isn't "madness" or "silly" - a few people said coaches shouldn't play starters so much in overtime, you said somebody should present the data, so I did.
Your data shows that fatigue can (not will) impact a players performance as it sets in. So why don't NBA teams sub more - and what the Heat do is more matchup based imo - deeper into games? And why do NBA players play such heavy minutes?

Are the teams ignoring the data or are have they simply concluded that your starters/best players still give them a better chance to win than a fresh set of legs?
 
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Jimbodandy

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Your data shows that fatigue can (not will) impact a players performance as it sets in. So why don't NBA teams sub more - and what the Heat do is more matchup based imo - deeper into games? And why do NBA players play such heavy minutes?

Are the teams ignoring the data or are have they simply concluded that your starters/best players still give them a better chance to win than a fresh set of legs?
The data is really interesting, and I appreciate kith putting it together.

There is probably more to dive than simply 3pt% in Q1-Q4 vs. overtime. For example, overtime games will generally (not always of course) be between teams that are more evenly matched. So 3PT percentage won't be as good in those games compared to "all games", overtime or otherwise. And of course, most teams see a huge dropoff in players past guy #5 and certainly past guy 7 or 8. So it's completely understandable why their guy #3 who shoots 38% will still be better shooting 32% in 2OT than their guy #8 who shoots 35% but does fuck all else.

However, it does seem pertinent and thought-provoking to consider this data in the context of a Cs team that runs remarkably deep. I'm pretty grateful to have it to chew on.
 

Reverend

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I know you've tapped out but those are very tricky questions to ask and answer as you are well aware. My response would be that we can and should be asking if coaching decisions contributed to those outcomes. What we should not do is conclude that they either were or were not because its almost impossible to prove.
Looking forward to pouring over the data conversation, but I meant to refer back to this:

Like, regardless of what the data says (I think I’m team reduced minutes, but more on that later) but what sorta baffles me is the attempt to evaluate CJM’s decision making based on a game where both Horford and Tatum were benched with two fouls each within five minutes. Considering not just their quality but also their roles, this had a cascading effect on usage not just in time but in role usage all the way down the roster for the whole game. As such, it seems to me that this is an odd game to come to any conclusions about CJM’s coaching, even if considered a single data point among others, as it is utterly aberrant.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Looking forward to pouring over the data conversation, but I meant to refer back to this:

Like, regardless of what the data says (I think I’m team reduced minutes, but more on that later) but what sorta baffles me is the attempt to evaluate CJM’s decision making based on a game where both Horford and Tatum were benched with two fouls each within five minutes. Considering not just their quality but also their roles, this had a cascading effect on usage not just in time but in role usage all the way down the roster for the whole game. As such, it seems to me that this is an odd game to come to any conclusions about CJM’s coaching, even if considered a single data point among others, as it is utterly aberrant.
Well, if we're talking specifically about minutes, then the early foul trouble affecting rotations makes looking at the game (or any one game) not useful.

But if we are talking about, how does he react to adversity, I think there is something that gcan be elarned from those games.

His team needed a spark, he had one on his bench, and he didn't even try playing him. The early foul trouble was irrelevant to that decision.
 

slamminsammya

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We have a lot of data that it takes a long time for coaches in all sports to stop using risk-averse strategies even in the face of data. I think it is very reasonable to think coaches are too scared to go away from their starters in clutch moments even if there is data that doing so in cases of exhaustion would increase their chances of winning.

There is probably also a culture issue - players used to closing out clutch moments may not appreciate being subbed.
 

Eddie Jurak

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So this was another weird game. The Celtics beat Brooklyn, 103-92, in a game that was much close than the final score would indicate. Smart was out. I think this was an atypically slow placed game, which partly explains the low score - only the second time all season the Celtics have held an opponent under 100, and 103 is just one point above their season low. But it was more than just the pace. It was also the case that their offense looked as awful as it has in a long time, while they cranked up the intensity on the defensive end and played one of their best defensive games all year.

In terms of offense, they turned the ball over 15 times... not their high for the season, but this was a slow paced game. Their passing attack was missing in action for large stretches. The Celtics has just 18 assists, on 35 made baskets. 17 assists is their season low and this was the only other game they had fewer than 20. Their 35 made baskets was a season low.

Defensively, this was their most aggressive game challenging shooters at the rim or coming in late to block shots. They had 9 blocked shots, which ties their second highest total of the season. They also had 11 steals, which was their second highest total of the season. The combined 20 blocks+steals was their second highest total of the season.

In terms of individual performances, Brown was the best Celtic tonight, scoring 34 points on 10-20 shooting, getting to the line (9-11), and getting 10 rebounds. He also had 2 assists, 2 steals, and led the Celtics with 4 blocks. No turnovers. He was huge in the first quarter, when he scored 20 points and shot 5-5 from three. Less productive in the rest of the game.

Jayson Tatum got off to a terrible start, salvaged his game in the second half, and then almost but not quite let it get away from him in the end. He scored 29 points, but that does not tell the full story. He just missed a triple double, but not the kind you want, with 11 rebounds, an assits, a team-leading 4 steals, and a team-leading 9 turnovers. His shooting was bad for most of the first half, much better in the second, but I think at least 3 of his tunrovers came in the 4th quarter when the game was still close.

Horford, White, Houser were nothing special in this one. Kornet barely played before garbage time.

Grant was much better than the (decent) numbers show. He had 10 points on 4-7 shooting, but also had 3 steals. And he drew a lot of touch defensive assignments and played well in that end.

Brogdon played 32 minutes (season high for him?) and came within shouting distance of a triple double, with 13 points, 8 rebounds, and a team-leading 8 assists - no one else on the team had more than 2.

Pritchard played OK in 16 minutes.
 

RorschachsMask

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The Celtics off court net ratings are insane, look at all those high numbers lol. It’s the third column, incase anyone was wondering.

 

HomeRunBaker

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Well, if we're talking specifically about minutes, then the early foul trouble affecting rotations makes looking at the game (or any one game) not useful.

But if we are talking about, how does he react to adversity, I think there is something that gcan be elarned from those games.

His team needed a spark, he had one on his bench, and he didn't even try playing him. The early foul trouble was irrelevant to that decision.
We are the best team in the league are we really in “throw shit against the wall to see if it sticks?” There is clear and obvious reasoning why Pritchard doesn’t play against Miami and it’s as simple as he doesn’t have anyone to guard on the defensive end. Herro would shoot over him, Butler and Lowry would back their huge asses down on the block for a layup or requiring help that would result in the rest of the defense out of position chasing the next pass.

Ime didn’t play him against Miami last year during the regular season either and only spotted him when Vincent was on the floor so there was a matchup for him. Once he began being hunted and exposed he spent the rest of the Miami series on the bench. Matchups matter with deep bench players as it’s the coach who should be putting the player in the best position to succeed…..if they didn’t need to be spotted the best matchups then they wouldn’t be deep bench players to begin with.
 

Eddie Jurak

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We are the best team in the league are we really in “throw shit against the wall to see if it sticks?” There is clear and obvious reasoning why Pritchard doesn’t play against Miami and it’s as simple as he doesn’t have anyone to guard on the defensive end.
He played regular bench minutes against Miami in the ECF last year.
 

lovegtm

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As bad (very bad!) as they were offensively, that was a dominant defensive performance.

Brooklyn scored 85 in the competitive 46 minutes of the game, and had to make some really tough shots just to get those 85. Brooklyn wasn't generating anything good in the halfcourt against the swarming D.
 

benhogan

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He played regular bench minutes against Miami in the ECF last year.
Yep. PP has played in every Celtic playoff game (29) over the last 2 seasons. He played his most playoff minutes versus Miami (15mpg). Unfortunately for PP, the Celtics added Hauser & Brogdon to the rotation this season, both players take his minutes. He does bring energy to the floor when he plays, but it's more of a numbers thing than "he'll get played off the floor". CJM barely played Brogdon/Hauser in the Miami game the other night, while opting for a partially injured Marcus Smart for 42 minutes. So Energy PP was probably the furthest thing from his mind.

For those that need SSS numbers over observations, CJM has yet to make a substitution in 3 OT games. No chess pieces moved over the last 12 minutes of the Miami game. CJM is doing a great job, he has COTM hardware and the best record in the NBA to prove it. He is still making adjustments/learning on the job 6 weeks into it. To be expected. It was the same with IME last year. Out of nowhere, the guy was thrown into the deep end with very little preparation. Every veteran NBA head coach would tell you they improved from their first few months on the job. Nobody needs to have coached above grade school level to make that utterly obvious comment
 

chilidawg

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As bad (very bad!) as they were offensively, that was a dominant defensive performance.

Brooklyn scored 85 in the competitive 46 minutes of the game, and had to make some really tough shots just to get those 85. Brooklyn wasn't generating anything good in the halfcourt against the swarming D.
Very glad to see the clamps applied, I've been missing that D.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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I'm having trouble deciding whether those were clamps or whether the Nets are dysfunctional.

18 assists for the Cs was their second worst of the season; Nets had 17 yesterday.
15 turnovers for the Cs was among their worst of the season; Nets had 14 yesterday.
Neither team really put on a show on the offensive end.

But here's the C's shot chart:
58461

And here's the Nets shot chart:
58462

Durant and Kyrie are both amazing shot makers, but they also take a TON of ill-advised shots. The Celtics are much, much more disciplined a team in terms of the shots they take and where they take them from.

And in reference to up-thread debates about player usage, I don't think it's a coincidence that all the Nets starters played 36+ minutes and they shot 36% from 2 in the final quarter. It looked like Kyrie and Durant just sorta ran out of batteries. The final steal where Tatum just took the ball from Durant at the top of the key looked a lot like a 25 year old having more in the tank than a 35 year old.
 

Jimbodandy

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As bad (very bad!) as they were offensively, that was a dominant defensive performance.

Brooklyn scored 85 in the competitive 46 minutes of the game, and had to make some really tough shots just to get those 85. Brooklyn wasn't generating anything good in the halfcourt against the swarming D.
Word. The book on the Celtics seems out...stop the drives by swarming hands, and the beautifully conducted offense slows to a snail's pace of bad/mediocre shots. But that was a joy to watch on defense. And as to the question of Brooklyn being their own worst enemy, that's not what I saw. They settled for a lot of bad shots because that's what we were giving them, and the 11 steals and 9 blocks indicate that we weren't making those easy either.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He played regular bench minutes against Miami in the ECF last year.
Which of course I noted in my post mirrored Gabe Vincent’s minutes until the Heat hunted him and he landed back on the bench. Over the last two years aside from Vincent he’s been unplayable against Miami due to matchups.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Which of course I noted in my post mirrored Gabe Vincent’s minutes until the Heat hunted him and he landed back on the bench. Over the last two years aside from Vincent he’s been unplayable against Miami due to matchups.
Vincent played the first 4:44 of the 4th quarter, during which Miami went on a 15-4 run to catch the Celtics and pull ahead.
 

slamminsammya

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Which of course I noted in my post mirrored Gabe Vincent’s minutes until the Heat hunted him and he landed back on the bench. Over the last two years aside from Vincent he’s been unplayable against Miami due to matchups.
Yeah this is not really true. Here are the game flows, there is really not a very tight overlap between Pritchard and Vincent's minutes, and some long stretches for Pritch without Vincent out there. Link.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah this is not really true. Here are the game flows, there is really not a very tight overlap between Pritchard and Vincent's minutes, and some long stretches for Pritch without Vincent out there. Link.
Right….and then he was shut down for rest of series when his presence affected the entire defensive sets. Ime didn’t play him during regular season, tried to use him, it didn’t work, and went away from it. Mazzulla was a part of this decision process and hasn’t used him in 3 Miami games this year. I mean c’mon how can you even try to argue that it isn’t about matchups…..when there isn’t a Heat player he can defend?
 

slamminsammya

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Right….and then he was shut down for rest of series when his presence affected the entire defensive sets. Ime didn’t play him during regular season, tried to use him, it didn’t work, and went away from it. Mazzulla was a part of this decision process and hasn’t used him in 3 Miami games this year. I mean c’mon how can you even try to argue that it isn’t about matchups…..when there isn’t a Heat player he can defend?
I am merely bringing some data to the discussion to show part of your argument is not factual. I don't necessarily disagree about Pritchard overall.
 

benhogan

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Right….and then he was shut down for rest of series when his presence affected the entire defensive sets. Ime didn’t play him during regular season, tried to use him, it didn’t work, and went away from it. Mazzulla was a part of this decision process and hasn’t used him in 3 Miami games this year. I mean c’mon how can you even try to argue that it isn’t about matchups…..when there isn’t a Heat player he can defend?
I always felt Spoelstra was the best at organizing his group to hunt Kemba. They always seemed so damn efficient at it. But that's just from my faulty memory.

PP will basically get real minutes when one of Smart, Brogdon, White or Hauser is out. BUT it's tough to play him over any of those 4. I do like the spark plug angle at home, Alvarado has made that a thing for the Pels. There were snickers from the NBA intelligentsia about him at first also
 

dhellers

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Right….and then he was shut down for rest of series when his presence affected the entire defensive sets. Ime didn’t play him during regular season, tried to use him, it didn’t work, and went away from it. Mazzulla was a part of this decision process and hasn’t used him in 3 Miami games this year. I mean c’mon how can you even try to argue that it isn’t about matchups…..when there isn’t a Heat player he can defend?
Cost vs benefits. Perhaps Miami has an extra advantage on their Offense. But if Celts offense is moribund, and a jolt of energy can lift it up -- it is possible that the net effect is positive.
And we saw that PP can bother people enough on D that his post up deficiencies aren't the only story.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Right….and then he was shut down for rest of series when his presence affected the entire defensive sets. Ime didn’t play him during regular season, tried to use him, it didn’t work, and went away from it. Mazzulla was a part of this decision process and hasn’t used him in 3 Miami games this year. I mean c’mon how can you even try to argue that it isn’t about matchups…..when there isn’t a Heat player he can defend?
If we are talking about the ECF, Pritchard was never shut down, he played in every game, average 15 mpg, in the most important basketball series this Celtics core team has ever won. To suggest he should not be given a look in a game where the rest of the team is struggling and on its way to an L - because he is somehow unplayable agaisnt a team we beat with him playing defies logic.
 

jezza1918

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If we are talking about the ECF, Pritchard was never shut down, he played in every game, average 15 mpg, in the most important basketball series this Celtics core team has ever won. To suggest he should not be given a look in a game where the rest of the team is struggling and on its way to an L - because he is somehow unplayable agaisnt a team we beat with him playing defies logic.
His minute totals in the last three games were 6:05, 3:33, 2:26. I don't know as much about basketball as you and HRB have forgotten, so I'm not trying to wade in too deep here. But I remember discussing his dwindling minutes with my brother in the aftermath of the series so thought I'd at least provide those minutes as further context.

edit: to add a little more context, in game 4 Pritchard was 5/8 (3/6 from 3) for 14 points with 3 assists in 24:45. Celts won that 102-82...but Pritchard was still a -6 for the game. Again, I'm legit not smart enough about the NBA to fully describe what it means...but on the surface it makes me wonder if the coaching staff noticed something in that game and his minutes were greatly reduced the next 3 games?
 

HomeRunBaker

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If we are talking about the ECF, Pritchard was never shut down, he played in every game, average 15 mpg, in the most important basketball series this Celtics core team has ever won. To suggest he should not be given a look in a game where the rest of the team is struggling and on its way to an L - because he is somehow unplayable agaisnt a team we beat with him playing defies logic.
This has now become silly trying to defend this but I’ll have fun and play with all of my “non-factual” info and pull up some box scores as opposed to relying on my recall.

Pritchard’s 6 min in G5 (you are right, he wasn’t fully shut down) mirrored those with Vincent on the floor in the 1H. When Vincent began his 2H rotation, Ime choose to “shut him down” for the remainder of the game.

His 3 min in G6 was (presumably) meant to mirror Vincent’s however Spro removed him on the next dead ball (coincidence or Spro recognizing advantage?). I’d have to see tape to confirm whether PP was involved but their next 3 possessions resulted in layup attempts/makes by Butler and Lowry prior to Ime immediately pulling Pritchard. Shut down in 2H that game.

Game 7. Pritchard begins 2Q with Vincent on the floor. Spro immediately subs Herro in for Vincent :23 seconds later on first dead ball (again, not a coincidence that Spro would recognize the obv mismatch w Pritchard on the floor). Next possession Lowry gets fouled by Pritchard and removed the next time down the floor ending his 2:26 of play for the night.


That’s all for my “non-factual” Pritchard and Vincent matchups.
 

Eddie Jurak

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3 minutes would have been enough to see whether the move worked or not. And a player who can be trusted to play in game 7 ECF can be trusted with at least that opportunity in game 23 of the regular season.

There used to be a time when, at home, getting the crowd into the game was seen as a positive thing . We saw Pritchard make that immediate impact the previous week. I guess Mazzulla doesn’t buy into any of that.
 

Jimbodandy

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We're talking an awful lot about a guy who isn't generally much of a difference maker. Best things that one can say about Pritchard is that he can almost always bring the ball up against NBA pressure and can get hot from deep once in a while. Suppose I'd add that he seems to have improved his defensive base in the last year. He'll always be short though.

I'm a bit concerned about tonight. Long athletic team. If we have another 18-20 turnover game, we're probably fucked.
 
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bigq

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Brogdon is out tonight so PP should get a bunch of minutes. Hope he gets hot from three.
 

chilidawg

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HomeRunBaker

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Brogdon is out tonight so PP should get a bunch of minutes. Hope he gets hot from three.
Hmmm interesting. Could be Mazzulla’s standard B2B load management or Brogdon’s “illness” could be the reason he wasn’t use late in the Miami game.
 

benhogan

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Hmmm interesting. Could be Mazzulla’s standard B2B load management or Brogdon’s “illness” could be the reason he wasn’t use late in the Miami game.
time to slip on your #11 C's jersey for the game tonight;)

I peruse the Silver Dollar thread every once in a while, sounds like Xmas cards are headed your way and weekend - early start UNDERS are working. Hopefully, you're cleaning up. How are your SEASON WIN over/unders faring?
 

Reverend

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So this was another weird game. The Celtics beat Brooklyn, 103-92, in a game that was much close than the final score would indicate.
This generally comports with my feelings about the game, as with many in the game thread, I think. Here’s the thing, though: I watched on the Brooklyn feed and their sense of the game was completely different.

What the announcers saw was that whenever it seemed like the Nets were getting close again, the Celtics would just pull away, and then, when the time came, they put the defensive clamps down and that’s all she wrote and the conclusion was never really in doubt.

And this wasn’t an after the fact retrospective, either. They started talking about the pulling close - pulling away thing like maybe half way through the third quarter and kept bringing it up over and over again. And they mentioned the defense thing in the end as it was happening. They noted Tatum’s struggles all along, but then when he started coming through in the fourth, they treated it as the other shoe finally dropping. There was a real fatalistic air to all of it and, in retrospect, despite my own impressions, they were empirically correct all along the way.

They wouldn’t even talk themselves out of it at the end or make excuses. They brought up Simmons being out, but then immediately noted, “Of course, they were without Smart, to, so…” and they brought up how the sweep in the playoffs was a total of inly 18 points, so the Nets could play the Celtics close… and yeeeeetttt… the Celtics won them all.

And they concluded: This is why they’re the best team in the league. Listening to them and reading the game thread in juxtaposition was pretty wild.
 

Leon Trotsky

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Hmmm interesting. Could be Mazzulla’s standard B2B load management or Brogdon’s “illness” could be the reason he wasn’t use late in the Miami game.
[/QUOT

On Friday I told my wife JT looked like he had gotten the covid booster the day before or something, he looked so lethargic compared to usual. Maybe something is going around the team. I blame Deuce (as I blame my kids for the constant sickness in my house).
 

Euclis20

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This generally comports with my feelings about the game, as with many in the game thread, I think. Here’s the thing, though: I watched on the Brooklyn feed and their sense of the game was completely different.

What the announcers saw was that whenever it seemed like the Nets were getting close again, the Celtics would just pull away, and then, when the time came, they put the defensive clamps down and that’s all she wrote and the conclusion was never really in doubt.

And this wasn’t an after the fact retrospective, either. They started talking about the pulling close - pulling away thing like maybe half way through the third quarter and kept bringing it up over and over again. And they mentioned the defense thing in the end as it was happening. They noted Tatum’s struggles all along, but then when he started coming through in the fourth, they treated it as the other shoe finally dropping. There was a real fatalistic air to all of it and, in retrospect, despite my own impressions, they were empirically correct all along the way.

They wouldn’t even talk themselves out of it at the end or make excuses. They brought up Simmons being out, but then immediately noted, “Of course, they were without Smart, to, so…” and they brought up how the sweep in the playoffs was a total of inly 18 points, so the Nets could play the Celtics close… and yeeeeetttt… the Celtics won them all.

And they concluded: This is why they’re the best team in the league. Listening to them and reading the game thread in juxtaposition was pretty wild.
Yup, I'll typically watch the opposing team's tv feed (unless the score gets lopsided in the wrong direction), it's an interesting look at how the Celtics are viewed.
 

HomeRunBaker

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time to slip on your #11 C's jersey for the game tonight;)

I peruse the Silver Dollar thread every once in a while, sounds like Xmas cards are headed your way and weekend - early start UNDERS are working. Hopefully, you're cleaning up. How are your SEASON WIN over/unders faring?
It’s been a good past month for sure. I’ve had better starts on my win totals however…..to put it mildly. Tatum’s +800 MVP ticket could be my saving grace (and then some).
 

Reverend

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Yup, I'll typically watch the opposing team's tv feed (unless the score gets lopsided in the wrong direction), it's an interesting look at how the Celtics are viewed.
Word. Yup-yup. And man: People all over the league just rave about Tatum, don’t they?
 

chilidawg

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This generally comports with my feelings about the game, as with many in the game thread, I think. Here’s the thing, though: I watched on the Brooklyn feed and their sense of the game was completely different.

What the announcers saw was that whenever it seemed like the Nets were getting close again, the Celtics would just pull away, and then, when the time came, they put the defensive clamps down and that’s all she wrote and the conclusion was never really in doubt.

And this wasn’t an after the fact retrospective, either. They started talking about the pulling close - pulling away thing like maybe half way through the third quarter and kept bringing it up over and over again. And they mentioned the defense thing in the end as it was happening. They noted Tatum’s struggles all along, but then when he started coming through in the fourth, they treated it as the other shoe finally dropping. There was a real fatalistic air to all of it and, in retrospect, despite my own impressions, they were empirically correct all along the way.

They wouldn’t even talk themselves out of it at the end or make excuses. They brought up Simmons being out, but then immediately noted, “Of course, they were without Smart, to, so…” and they brought up how the sweep in the playoffs was a total of inly 18 points, so the Nets could play the Celtics close… and yeeeeetttt… the Celtics won them all.

And they concluded: This is why they’re the best team in the league. Listening to them and reading the game thread in juxtaposition was pretty wild.
Similar to the first Miami game.
 

Euclis20

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By my count, Blake Griffin has 4 starts, 1 game off the bench, and 15 DNP-CDs in the last 20 games. I 100% understand the logic, but it's funny to see.
 

slamminsammya

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This has now become silly trying to defend this but I’ll have fun and play with all of my “non-factual” info and pull up some box scores as opposed to relying on my recall.

Pritchard’s 6 min in G5 (you are right, he wasn’t fully shut down) mirrored those with Vincent on the floor in the 1H. When Vincent began his 2H rotation, Ime choose to “shut him down” for the remainder of the game.

His 3 min in G6 was (presumably) meant to mirror Vincent’s however Spro removed him on the next dead ball (coincidence or Spro recognizing advantage?). I’d have to see tape to confirm whether PP was involved but their next 3 possessions resulted in layup attempts/makes by Butler and Lowry prior to Ime immediately pulling Pritchard. Shut down in 2H that game.

Game 7. Pritchard begins 2Q with Vincent on the floor. Spro immediately subs Herro in for Vincent :23 seconds later on first dead ball (again, not a coincidence that Spro would recognize the obv mismatch w Pritchard on the floor). Next possession Lowry gets fouled by Pritchard and removed the next time down the floor ending his 2:26 of play for the night.


That’s all for my “non-factual” Pritchard and Vincent matchups.
Yeah, the original claim was he only played in that series with Vincent. That was true after game 4 but not for the whole series. I don't understand why your takes on here are always so stubborn. See for example the claim that it was crazy to think JB's comments on the Kyrie situation were possibly his actual feelings and not just speaking as a union rep. Or the rabbit hole this board went down with your vaccine misinformation.
 

Jimbodandy

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The good guys kept the turnovers to 11, which is why we were able to squeak this one out imo. Kudos to the guy who wore Jaylen Brown's #7 jersey and had eight assists and zero turnovers tonight.

Joe kept the rotation tight (as did Nurse), and everyone played pretty well. Big kudos to CJM for his effective use of Blake (and Blake for the mad hustle points).

Another classic Tatum game where he starts unbelievably slow and ends up with an efficient 30 and a bunch of other great work.

Good clock punch game.