2022-2023 General Celtics thread

HomeRunBaker

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7th in DReb% but 25th in OReb %. I think they're more concerned with the former, and the latter will improve with Rob around.
The OReb% is purposely low as our attention is in retreating to prevent numbers. On its own it means literally nothing…..the Houston Rockets lead the league in OReb%, the Hornets and Spurs are in the top 10 while Dallas, Philly and Boston are among the worst. It’s all a matter of philosophy as opposed to efficiency.
 

Euclis20

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7th in DReb% but 25th in OReb %. I think they're more concerned with the former, and the latter will improve with Rob around.
This is definitely the case, as Rob was 4th in the league offensive rebounds per game last year (Kornet is the best Celtic this year with just 1.4 offensive rebounds per game, good for 70th).
 

slamminsammya

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The OReb% is purposely low as our attention is in retreating to prevent numbers. On its own it means literally nothing…..the Houston Rockets lead the league in OReb%, the Hornets and Spurs are in the top 10 while Dallas, Philly and Boston are among the worst. It’s all a matter of philosophy as opposed to efficiency.
Exactly. And it isn't just retreating - offensive rebounds heavily depend on the types of shots you are putting up. Rim attacks lead to more offensive boards. We shoot a ton of 3s which generally don't produce as many oreb opportunities.
 

InstaFace

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I don't think you can have the needs conversation in a vacuum - what team(s) might you face in the ECF? What are the matchups that you could improve on? Consider past examples, DJ was brought on as a Toney stopper and turned out to be pretty good versus Magic as well. PJ Brown/Posey were signed because the team needed physical, veteran defenders who could hit a jumper when they matched up with Lebron or Detroit in the playoffs

So who are the most dangerous eastern conference opponents - the Bucks are certainly in that group. The Nets? 76ers? Heat?
The Nets if fully healthy and clicking, which is like 25% chance to happen. Bucks are always capable of a Giannis rampage in one given game, but I saw so much on Sunday that I think we have little to worry about from them in a series. We match up crazy well with the 76ers, I still think that's a sweep. The Heat are well coached and basically running it back from last year, I think they're our team to beat again, despite them being barely over .500 right now.

Are we sure that Cleveland's run this season is a mirage? I think they have really proven they can handle our wings as well as anyone, and have a lot of weapons to hurt us with.
 

chilidawg

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The OReb% is purposely low as our attention is in retreating to prevent numbers. On its own it means literally nothing…..the Houston Rockets lead the league in OReb%, the Hornets and Spurs are in the top 10 while Dallas, Philly and Boston are among the worst. It’s all a matter of philosophy as opposed to efficiency.
Yeah, that was my point re the focus on defensive rebounds.
 

lovegtm

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I don't think total rebounds are the best to use. Per 100 possessions is probably better, and in that BOS is 10th in rebounding
Yup, and even better is rebounding %, divided by the offensive and defensive ends:

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/league/fourfactors

The Celtics are a bad offensive rebounding team (probably mostly due to not crashing the boards; Rob helps with this). They are the #5 defensive rebounding team though--it's a strength of the team, and that's even (mostly) without Rob.
 

mcpickl

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I don’t think Green is realistic as he comes cheap to the Bulls, who will likely be in the playoff hunt to the end, and is a key guy in their rotation. Holiday has no role in Indiana, is also a UFA this summer, and making $6m to sit on the bench. He’s almost certainly going to end up elsewhere as bench depth even if it’s for the Pacers to shed salary.
You slipped back to pre-pandemic times. As you said earlier, Holiday is on the Hawks.

They're probably keeping him as depth since they're hoping to be a solid playoff team and De'Andre Hunter hasn't been the healthiest guy.
 

benhogan

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The Nets if fully healthy and clicking, which is like 25% chance to happen. Bucks are always capable of a Giannis rampage in one given game, but I saw so much on Sunday that I think we have little to worry about from them in a series. We match up crazy well with the 76ers, I still think that's a sweep. The Heat are well coached and basically running it back from last year, I think they're our team to beat again, despite them being barely over .500 right now.

Are we sure that Cleveland's run this season is a mirage? I think they have really proven they can handle our wings as well as anyone, and have a lot of weapons to hurt us with.
Not one team has employed the Hack-a-Simmons or Hack-a-Clax strategy during the Nets' win streak. Not sure why, but they have been allowed to take lay-ups at their leisure and play excellent D. While letting Kyrie and KD cook on offense.
CJM has no problem cooling off KD/Ky by making them witness the Ben/Nic Free Throw Show. This will lead the Nets to compromise their defense. ALSO the C's have the perimeter defenders (Tatum, White, Smart, Grant) to somewhat slow Ky/KD down. The Celtics are well-constructed to beat the Nets.

The HEAT and Lowry/Butler are showing their age. The Celtics should be over their antics by the playoffs.

The CAVS, OTOH, are young and improving. They could be better than their current version in 6 months.

My tea leaves say the CAVS and BUCKS are the most troublesome playoff teams
 

HomeRunBaker

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You slipped back to pre-pandemic times. As you said earlier, Holiday is on the Hawks.

They're probably keeping him as depth since they're hoping to be a solid playoff team and De'Andre Hunter hasn't been the healthiest guy.
I know he’s on the Hawks as I was discussing why he isn’t seeing minutes……then I reverted back to prehistoric times lol. Too many irons in fire over here.
 

lovegtm

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It's nice to say "you have to find ways to win when you can't hit 3s", but at a certain point it's hard to win in the NBA when you're starting every game 20% from 3.

I thought they actually tried to play the right way on the offensive end in this one, and if anything tried to force driving/ball movement too much once 3s weren't falling.
 
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Imbricus

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The disparity in three-point shooting was lethal. The Nuggets had 7 players that put up three-point shots last night. The worst shooting percentage from three for any of those 7 was 43%.
 

Eagle3

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I wonder if last night's "rim nonsense" will cause the NBA to start calling techs for hanging on the rim. I get that in many cases they do it to protect themselves or others from getting hurt, but it seems like lately a lot of guys are grabbing the rim and hanging when they don't really need to. Tatum in particular does it a lot.

Rims/backboards dont break because of the force of the dunk, they break from the weight of guys hanging on the rim.
Darryl Dawkins and Jerome Lane are the only ones I can think of where a rim or backboard broke without grabbing the rim and I'm pretty sure both of those were before they invented the breakaway rims with the spring.
 

benhogan

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It's nice to say "you have to find ways to win when you can't hit 3s", but at a certain point it's hard to win in the NBA when you're starting every game 20% from 3.

I thought they actually tried to play the right way on the offensive end in this one, and if anything tried to force driving/ball movement too much once 3s weren't falling.
They did a good job of keeping it within striking distance, in light of the 3pt discrepancy. That's the 7th straight loss when they have had 2 days or more off between games. This team, and Tatum in particular, seem to lose their rhythm with the extra rest

25-4 on one day off
1-7 on multiple days off
 

Reverend

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25-4 on one day off
1-7 on multiple days off
Those numbers are completely bonkers. At first it seemed intuitively unlikely, but now it’a in the territory of being extremely unlikely to be a function of randomness and that there’s really something there.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's nice to say "you have to find ways to win when you can't hit 3s", but at a certain point it's hard to win in the NBA when you're starting every game 20% from 3.

I thought they actually tried to play the right way on the offensive end in this one, and if anything tried to force driving/ball movement too much once 3s weren't falling.
I also agree that I thought BOS played really well despite not shooting the ball well. Obviously Jokic killed them - by setting up open shots for the rest of the team. I think BOS will match up better when they go back to Tl in the starting lineup but Jokic is great at dissecting defenses.

But yeah, if BOS hit a few more open 3Ps, it would have been a different game. From NBA.com, BOS is shooting over 40& from 3P with 16.8 makes per game when it wins, but when BOS loses, the team is shooting just over 30% with only 12.9 makes. That 12 ppg is hard to ovrtcome, particularly when you factor in the extra misses.
 

chilidawg

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It's nice to say "you have to find ways to win when you can't hit 3s", but at a certain point it's hard to win in the NBA when you're starting every game 20% from 3.

I thought they actually tried to play the right way on the offensive end in this one, and if anything tried to force driving/ball movement too much once 3s weren't falling.
Yup. 30 assists on 40 made baskets is evidence of good ball movement. C's had one fewer turnover and 9 more offensive rebounds, ended up taking 8 more shots and 9 more FT's than the Nuggets. Many nights they win this game. OTOH they didn't do much to get Jokic out of his rhythm all night. Defense was the culprit as much as the shooting.
 

koufax32

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Yup. 30 assists on 40 made baskets is evidence of good ball movement. C's had one fewer turnover and 9 more offensive rebounds, ended up taking 8 more shots and 9 more FT's than the Nuggets. Many nights they win this game. OTOH they didn't do much to get Jokic out of his rhythm all night. Defense was the culprit as much as the shooting.
It’s impossible to win when your opponent makes over 56% of their 3pt shots and you’re having a normal or below avg. night.
When this team decides to play hard defense they are virtually unstoppable.
 

benhogan

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I also agree that I thought BOS played really well despite not shooting the ball well. Obviously Jokic killed them - by setting up open shots for the rest of the team. I think BOS will match up better when they go back to Tl in the starting lineup but Jokic is great at dissecting defenses.

But yeah, if BOS hit a few more open 3Ps, it would have been a different game. From NBA.com, BOS is shooting over 40& from 3P with 16.8 makes per game when it wins, but when BOS loses, the team is shooting just over 30% with only 12.9 makes. That 12 ppg is hard to ovrtcome, particularly when you factor in the extra misses.
Yea I think TL is ready to return to the starting 5. The double BIG defense never slumps.

Jokic is the best offensive player they have faced this season, his ability to make the other 4 around him better is unmatched
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yea I think TL is ready to return to the starting 5. The double BIG defense never slumps.

Jokic is the best offensive player they have faced this season, his ability to make the other 4 around him better is unmatched
BOS held Jokic to 3 assists when they beat DEN in November; last night Jokic had 12 plus set up a bunch of open shots (for Porter especially) that probably didn't count as assists.

I did not know that Bruce Brown is shooting 40% on 3P this year (and last year). If he's really a 40% 3P shooter, I wonder if this team is better with him rather than Murray. Brown's defense is so much better - one thing they were pretty successful in doing is hiding Porter - and really, how much more offense do they need with Jokic controlling everything?

Gordon, KCP, and Brown are really good running mates for Jokic. I'll note that DEN is 5-2 in the 7 games Murray has missed, with wins over BOS (+12), MEM (+14), DAL (+1), GSW (+5) and OKC, with the two losses being to DAL (-28) and SAC (-1).
 

benhogan

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BOS held Jokic to 3 assists when they beat DEN in November; last night Jokic had 12 plus set up a bunch of open shots (for Porter especially) that probably didn't count as assists.

I did not know that Bruce Brown is shooting 40% on 3P this year (and last year). If he's really a 40% 3P shooter, I wonder if this team is better with him rather than Murray. Brown's defense is so much better - one thing they were pretty successful in doing is hiding Porter - and really, how much more offense do they need with Jokic controlling everything?

Gordon, KCP, and Brown are really good running mates for Jokic. I'll note that DEN is 5-2 in the 7 games Murray has missed, with wins over BOS (+12), MEM (+14), DAL (+1), GSW (+5) and OKC, with the two losses being to DAL (-28) and SAC (-1).
Great point on Bruce Brown, didn't realize he was THAT shooter but his stroke is mustard. Scal immediately went into panic mode when Boston let BB shoot an open 3 to begin the game. 40% Brown has turned into the prototypical high-end 3&D wing.
Agree, having Joker run Point Center, instead of a Murray dribble-fest, is where the Nuggets are most dangerous.

Brown at $6.5M was a really nice off-season signing, he and Grant should get similar money this off-season (although BB will be a UFA)
 

Just a bit outside

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A couple of observations from being at the game last night.
  • Tatum appeared out of it from the start last night. His first three shots were 3’s without trying to do much. Surprisingly he also seemed disengaged on defense. Multiple times he was in no man’s land off the ball where he didn’t help and his guy was open.
  • Hauser looked terrible. The Nuggets attacked him over and over and he didn’t hold up. Hyland particularly took advantage. If Hauser isn’t hitting 40%+ of his threes he is not a rotation piece. I’m not sure he is playable in the playoffs even if he is shooting well. Cancar looked better than Houser last night as a similar player.
  • Brown and White were the two guys that stood out. They both played with energy the whole game.
  • Jokic is huge. He just bullied whoever tried to cover him. Al had no chance and while Grant put up more resistance Jokic was still able to back him down and shoot over him. Of course when they doubled Jokic just kicked to a wide open shooter.
  • The Celtics are really good. Most teams get absolutely blown out with that shooting discrepancy. The Nuggets also made some incredibly difficult shots when the Celtics played good defense. The fact that the lead didn‘t balloon to 30 was weirdly impressive.
  • The fact that Rocky makes $625k is a disgrace. He is a replacement level mascot.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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A couple of observations from being at the game last night.
  • Tatum appeared out of it from the start last night. His first three shots were 3’s without trying to do much. Surprisingly he also seemed disengaged on defense. Multiple times he was in no man’s land off the ball where he didn’t help and his guy was open.
  • Hauser looked terrible. The Nuggets attacked him over and over and he didn’t hold up. Hyland particularly took advantage. If Hauser isn’t hitting 40%+ of his threes he is not a rotation piece. I’m not sure he is playable in the playoffs even if he is shooting well. Cancar looked better than Houser last night as a similar player.
  • Brown and White were the two guys that stood out. They both played with energy the whole game.
  • Jokic is huge. He just bullied whoever tried to cover him. Al had no chance and while Grant put up more resistance Jokic was still able to back him down and shoot over him. Of course when they doubled Jokic just kicked to a wide open shooter.
  • The Celtics are really good. Most teams get absolutely blown out with that shooting discrepancy. The Nuggets also made some incredibly difficult shots when the Celtics played good defense. The fact that the lead didn‘t balloon to 30 was weirdly impressive.
  • The fact that Rocky makes $625k is a disgrace. He is a replacement level mascot.
Was the baby race as scintillating in person as it was on LP?
 

Just a bit outside

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Was the baby race as scintillating in person as it was on LP?
It was a destruction. The baby that won was trying to get a head start and was crawling in the air as his dad held him aloft before they started the race. They said go and dad put him down and he was gone.

I think we may need a thread on LP halftime shows. Where does the baby race stack up with poor kids basketball, odd balancing acts, and outdated musical acts?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It was a destruction. The baby that won was trying to get a head start and was crawling in the air as his dad held him aloft before they started the race. They said go and dad put him down and he was gone.

I think we may need a thread on LP halftime shows. Where does the baby race stack up with poor kids basketball, odd balancing acts, and outdated musical acts?
1. Baby racing
2. Weird balancing
3. Outdated musicians
.....


101. Kids hoops (all of them bricklayers and turnstiles)
 

Imbricus

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Hauser looked terrible. The Nuggets attacked him over and over and he didn’t hold up.
Yeah, he has problems with quick, shifty guys, which is Hyland. Hyland was just faking him right and left, and once Hauser was leaning the wrong way, just went by him. The book may be getting out on Hauser's defense. Against a certain player, he's totally adequate, but he has trouble with the guys who have the good feints or the quick first steps (or who attack him on drives when he's near the basket offering a last line of defense).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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  • Hauser looked terrible. The Nuggets attacked him over and over and he didn’t hold up. Hyland particularly took advantage. If Hauser isn’t hitting 40%+ of his threes he is not a rotation piece. I’m not sure he is playable in the playoffs even if he is shooting well. Cancar looked better than Houser last night as a similar player.
Yeah, he has problems with quick, shifty guys, which is Hyland. Hyland was just faking him right and left, and once Hauser was leaning the wrong way, just went by him. The book may be getting out on Hauser's defense. Against a certain player, he's totally adequate, but he has trouble with the guys who have the good feints or the quick first steps (or who attack him on drives when he's near the basket offering a last line of defense).
I thought Hauser was okay but obviously he has defensive limitations (better on straight line drive guys) but JMazz obviously went with the better defender on Hyland. In Hauser's defense, no one was really having a great time stopping Hyland - he threw in some ridiculous shots (like the lefty floater in the lane with the shot clock winding down).

I wonder if one of the issues with Sam is that he's hitting the proverbial "wall" - at 37 games, he's now played more games than he has in any season of his career.
 

NomarsFool

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Yeah, he has problems with quick, shifty guys, which is Hyland. Hyland was just faking him right and left, and once Hauser was leaning the wrong way, just went by him. The book may be getting out on Hauser's defense. Against a certain player, he's totally adequate, but he has trouble with the guys who have the good feints or the quick first steps (or who attack him on drives when he's near the basket offering a last line of defense).
ATM, Hauser is definitely the weakest link in the overall rotation. Not sure there is going to be a realistic upgrade for his minutes, though. It is possible that they just shorten the bench for the playoffs and more minutes go to White/Brogdon/G. Williams.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah, he has problems with quick, shifty guys, which is Hyland. Hyland was just faking him right and left, and once Hauser was leaning the wrong way, just went by him. The book may be getting out on Hauser's defense. Against a certain player, he's totally adequate, but he has trouble with the guys who have the good feints or the quick first steps (or who attack him on drives when he's near the basket offering a last line of defense).
This will sound like a defense of Hauser, but it isn't. The Cs haven't solved the problem of super quick guards in a switch-everything defense. Hyland isn't a good matchup for them.
 

InstaFace

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This will sound like a defense of Hauser, but it isn't. The Cs haven't solved the problem of super quick guards in a switch-everything defense. Hyland isn't a good matchup for them.
Didn't we largely shut down Kyrie last time we played BRK? On Dec 4th, he went for 18 / 8 / 5 on 7-for-21 shooting (1/5 on 3P, .357 eFG%) in 40' played. His season averages are 26 / 5 / 5 on .579 eFG%.

When the Kings came to town at Thanksgiving, DeAaron Fox went for 20 / 4 / 2 on 6-for-17 shooting (3/9 on 3P, .353 eFG%) in 30' played. His season averages are 23 / 5 / 6 on .550 eFG%.

I dunno if Hyland is the blueprint to beat the Celtics. GSW (have a bunch of HOF-level outside shooters) and DEN (have one of the best-passing centers in the history of the league) seem like much better candidates to have a blueprint on us.
 

Jimbodandy

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Didn't we largely shut down Kyrie last time we played BRK? On Dec 4th, he went for 18 / 8 / 5 on 7-for-21 shooting (1/5 on 3P, .357 eFG%) in 40' played. His season averages are 26 / 5 / 5 on .579 eFG%.

When the Kings came to town at Thanksgiving, DeAaron Fox went for 20 / 4 / 2 on 6-for-17 shooting (3/9 on 3P, .353 eFG%) in 30' played. His season averages are 23 / 5 / 6 on .550 eFG%.

I dunno if Hyland is the blueprint to beat the Celtics. GSW (have a bunch of HOF-level outside shooters) and DEN (have one of the best-passing centers in the history of the league) seem like much better candidates to have a blueprint on us.
Agreed on the blueprint.

But while Kyrie didn't do much (or Fox), Edwards had his way against everyone and went 13 for 25. Haliburton did whatever he wanted as well, although he's not the world's fastest.

My point isn't that we have a huge weakness there as much as that guys like that are good and will get what they want generally against this defense. Doesn't mean that's an achilles heel. We won the Wolves game comfortably and were in this game with bad ball luck.
 

mcpickl

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ATM, Hauser is definitely the weakest link in the overall rotation. Not sure there is going to be a realistic upgrade for his minutes, though. It is possible that they just shorten the bench for the playoffs and more minutes go to White/Brogdon/G. Williams.
They're for sure going to do this.

Last season only 8 guys got more than cameo minutes each night in the playoffs, and some nights it was only 7.

Hauser will just get spot minutes, or mop up minutes, at most as long as the team is healthy.

If you figure Tatum and Brown playing 40 minutes a night in the playoffs, and that one of them is always on the floor, they'll play about 16 minutes a night with one of Brown/Tatum and 2 of Al/Rob/Grant and 2 of Smart/White/Brogdon on the floor, and 32 minutes a night with both Tatum/Brown and 3 of the other 6 guards/bigs.

The other 6 guys will only have to play an average of 27 minutes a night to keep the rotation to 8 guys. Should be easy as long as they're healthy.
 

lovegtm

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Didn't we largely shut down Kyrie last time we played BRK? On Dec 4th, he went for 18 / 8 / 5 on 7-for-21 shooting (1/5 on 3P, .357 eFG%) in 40' played. His season averages are 26 / 5 / 5 on .579 eFG%.

When the Kings came to town at Thanksgiving, DeAaron Fox went for 20 / 4 / 2 on 6-for-17 shooting (3/9 on 3P, .353 eFG%) in 30' played. His season averages are 23 / 5 / 6 on .550 eFG%.

I dunno if Hyland is the blueprint to beat the Celtics. GSW (have a bunch of HOF-level outside shooters) and DEN (have one of the best-passing centers in the history of the league) seem like much better candidates to have a blueprint on us.
Hyland was throwing up some serious garbage in that game and having it work. Good for him, but the Celtics aren't going to overreact.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Agreed on the blueprint.

But while Kyrie didn't do much (or Fox), Edwards had his way against everyone and went 13 for 25. Haliburton did whatever he wanted as well, although he's not the world's fastest.

My point isn't that we have a huge weakness there as much as that guys like that are good and will get what they want generally against this defense. Doesn't mean that's an achilles heel. We won the Wolves game comfortably and were in this game with bad ball luck.
SGA lit us up in the game we played at home against the Thunder too.

Got him again tonight. Speaking of which, anyone want to start a game thread?

Edit: To be fair, the C's didn't have Marcus for the Haliburton game. Smart completely changes our perimeter defense, especially against point guards with a bit of size, like Haliburton and SGA.
 

Jimbodandy

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SGA lit us up in the game we played at home against the Thunder too.

Got him again tonight. Speaking of which, anyone want to start a game thread?

Edit: To be fair, the C's didn't have Marcus for the Haliburton game. Smart completely changes our perimeter defense, especially against point guards with a bit of size, like Haliburton and SGA.
Marcus helps for sure, but savvy guards and offenses know how to get that switch onto basically anyone besides JT and Marcus. They're gonna get their points. If we keep SGA under 30 tonight, it would be a pleasant surprise. If he shoots badly from the field, even better.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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A large part of Memphis' defense is Jaren Jackson protecting the rim. I wonder how the Cs ISO PPP and other D metrics look after ~20 more games with Williams back.