2022-23 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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As I said above, NY still clearly plans to add a LF but also if they don’t, they’re in pretty good shape as is. Bradford Doolittle of ESPN ran the season 10,000 times using current rosters, selected expected win totals, before Tuesday’s moves:

NYY 99.4
TB 94.4
TOR 89.9
BOS 76.9
BAL 72.4

CLE 88.4

HOU 93.2
SEA 83.3 (3rd wild card)

NYM 102.8 (this assumes they sign Correa)
ATL 99.2

STL 92.3
MIL 85.7 (third wild card)

SDP 99.9
LAD 89.7

A few observations: this is almost exactly the same postseason teams as last year, so a bit suspect. The Dodgers have a ton of work to do on the trade market, and the Phillies are only projected for 85.2 wins and just missing the postseason.

https://es.pn/3jvIO85 (paywall)
 

jon abbey

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NY trades Luetge (DFAd last week) to the Braves for a couple of prospects.

Bye bye Lucas, you did well in NY. I was always nervous you’d blow up and you rarely did, enjoy ATL.
 

jon abbey

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If anyone is curious why NY dumped Luetge, they used him mostly in extremely low leverage situations and this is why:

“While Luetge posted impressive numbers in pinstripes, the Yankees were often hesitant to use him in high-leverage situations. That reluctance was warranted, as opponents slashed .315/.377/.463 against him in such scenarios in 2021 before improving to .456/.478/.744 in 2022.”
 

jon abbey

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NY has been signing a bunch of reclamation projects to minor league deals, including Willie Calhoun and Jake Bauers, prompting a Yankee fan on Reddit to post this:

===============

An excerpt of Baseball America’s 2018 Top 100 MLB Prospects:

36. Willie Calhoun
38. Estevan Florial
41. Justus Sheffield
45. Jake Bauers
54. Austin Riley
56. Juan Soto
59. Miguel Andujar
62. Yordan Alvarez
70. Sandy Alcantara
72. Max Fried
74. Corbin Burnes
77. Albert Abreu
81. Chance Adams
 

jon abbey

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Minaya was a spotty GM at best but has a rep as a great scout and also has many decades of connections in Latin America, which can only help NY there, I guess.
 

jon abbey

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I highly doubt it will happen but I would like to see them take a run at adding James Click too, before someone else snaps him up.
 

EvilEmpire

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Damn, JA. All these thread bumps with no updates on LF and/or a possible Gleyber trade. You're killing me.

Please get Brian, Brian2, or Omar on the phone and tell them to get that shit done.

TIA.

- A Concerned Fan
 

jon abbey

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Damn, JA. All these thread bumps with no updates on LF and/or a possible Gleyber trade. You're killing me.

Please get Brian, Brian2, or Omar on the phone and tell them to get that shit done.

TIA.

- A Concerned Fan
All winter Cashman has been aiming at specific players and not settling:

Rizzo
Kahnle (I think this was connected to his previous stint in NY and also maybe a bit to help with wooing Judge)
Judge
Rodon

Those were all FAs, but especially the last two were far from layups.

LF, I think they did not like any of the available FA possibilties enough (I hope the rumors of their interest in Benintendi were not nearly as enthusiasic as reported, I really think that deal will be terrible) and I think they are currently waiting out a resolution of the Bryan Reynolds situation as there's a good chance Jasson Dominguez will be the best prospect actually offered for him. I think a Gleyber deal will come after a LF resolution, still like the fit to the White Sox with Crochet in return there.
 

jon abbey

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The latest reports from Chris Kirschner in The Athletic (new Yankee beat writer there) have DJ fully back for spring training and Michael King on a good track but probably a bit behind, two crucial Yankees this year.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I can't see the Yankees getting rid of Gleyber until they already have more offense added somewhere else. As much as GT drives me nuts, he fills a hole in the lineup I don't see us easily replacing unless DJL is absolutely healthy.
 

jon abbey

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At least one of Gleyber and Donaldson and IKF should go by Opening Day, all of them could go and NY would still have Rizzo/Volpe/Peraza/DJ with Cabrera as utility man.
 

Bread of Yaz

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At least one of Gleyber and Donaldson and IKF should go by Opening Day, all of them could go and NY would still have Rizzo/Volpe/Peraza/DJ with Cabrera as utility man.
But wont Yankees have to staple something quite significant (like Peraza or Cabrera) to Donaldson to be able to deal him in light of the size of his contract, age, decline in performance etc?
 

jon abbey

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But wont Yankees have to staple something quite significant (like Peraza or Cabrera) to Donaldson to be able to deal him in light of the size of his contract, age, decline in performance etc?
I mean, I have no idea, but he just has one year left on his deal and he is still really good defensively. In a world where Gallo just got 1/11 and Bellinger 1/17.5, Donaldson's 1/25 at least looks a little better, especially if there's a destination with tons of room under the tax level.

I'm not saying they can or will trade him, I'm just saying they have too many infielders and barring injuries, they need to do something about it at some point before Opening Day.
 

jon abbey

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Donaldson specifically is unlikely to move until the season starts and his contract starts dropping, then if Volpe is really crushing in AAA, they can give Donaldson away or DFA him if needed. I was mostly pointing out how many IFs NY has right now, they could move all three of those guys and still be in good shape.
 

EvilEmpire

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Gleyber may have regained some of his power last year, but his OBP is still trending down. .310 for last season. I'm not really worried about losing his offensive contribution for this next season and hope the Yankees can trade him to a team intrigued by his HR potential before he craters again.

I know the grass isn't necessarily greener, but I'd rather bet on the potential of kids developing and DJ staying healthy for infield offensive production.
 

jon abbey

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To me it looks like a decided offensive upgrade actually, but who knows.

Edit: crosspost with EE, but yep.
 

jon abbey

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Last year with DJ hurt we had an infield of Donaldson, IKF, Gleyber and Rizzo, Marwin as utility guy.

DJ, Peraza, Volpe and Rizzo with Cabrera as utility guy seems like a way better bet going forward to me.
 

jon abbey

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Brutal trade there so far, NY can replace him just fine with German to start the season, but their depth behind that was seriously thinned out by that deal.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Brutal trade there so far, NY can replace him just fine with German to start the season, but their depth behind that was seriously thinned out by that deal.
Somewhat similar to the situation with Story; there were warning signs, both teams decided to proceed nonetheless hoping the injuries were in the past. Understandable.
 

jon abbey

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So NY’s rotation depth looks something like this with Montas out:

Cole
Rodon
Severino
Cortes (Cortes is really #3 but I think NY will go R/L/R/L/R)
German (he missed the first 2/3 of 2022 but was very good down the stretch, a bad first outing but then a 3.12 ERA in 69.2 innings after that)

Schmidt (he should get a chance for the #5 spot in the spring but he has an option left and German doesn’t)

7-9 looks like some combo of Jhony Brito, Matt Krook and Ryan Weber for now. Sears and Waldichuk would be at 7 and 8 if they hadn’t been dealt for the broken remnants of Montas.
 

jon abbey

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Maybe I'm missing someone but if Reynolds is prohibitively expensive (in trade cost) and Arraez is not really available, doesn't that make Gleyber the most exciting potentially obtainable impact offensive player for MIA?

Maybe Cashman can add secondary pieces and get one of the SPs, a lot of tempting targets, Edward Cabrera would maybe be my hope. Gleyber had 4.1 bWAR last year and just turned 26 in December, he has two years left of control. NY can add more hitters from the list under Volpe/Peraza/Dominguez/Jones, Pereira, Florial, Dunham, Chaparro, Breaux, 2-3 of those five plus Gleyber for one of their flotilla of SPs.
 
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jon abbey

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So NY’s rotation depth looks something like this with Montas out:

Cole
Rodon
Severino
Cortes (Cortes is really #3 but I think NY will go R/L/R/L/R)
German (he missed the first 2/3 of 2022 but was very good down the stretch, a bad first outing but then a 3.12 ERA in 69.2 innings after that)

Schmidt (he should get a chance for the #5 spot in the spring but he has an option left and German doesn’t)

7-9 looks like some combo of Jhony Brito, Matt Krook and Ryan Weber for now. Sears and Waldichuk would be at 7 and 8 if they hadn’t been dealt for the broken remnants of Montas.
Also in the mix at 7-9 (so actually 7-10) is Randy Vasquez, very disrespectful of me to forget him initially, sorry Randy! He is on the 40 man and the last time we saw him was in the AA postseason clinching game in late September, he was perfect through 6 1/3 and left after eight hitless with his team up 15-0, 8 0 0 0 1 8.

https://www.mlb.com/news/randy-vasquez-jasson-dominguez-lead-double-a-somerset-to-title

https://www.milb.com/gameday/seawolves-vs-patriots/2022/09/28/713766#game_state=final,game_tab=box,game=713766

That actually makes me feel a little better, guys like Schmidt and Vasquez and Will Warren all just move up a slot. Brito is also intriguing, a late bloomer, and Krook has had great stretches.
 

jon abbey

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Someone else to keep an eye on as a possibly fast rising SP for NY is Richard Fitts, a SEC pitcher at Auburn who was a possible first-round pick in 2021 before he hurt his foot and tried to pitch through it and didn't do well. NY took him in the sixth round and he struggled to start this season (his first), he was bad in low A according to the stats (5.01 ERA) but NY promoted him anyway to high A for the final month and he instantly dominated, five starts before the season ended, a ridiculous 33 17 3 2 3 38 line, 0.55 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP, even slightly outpitching Andrew Painter in the same league by this guy's metric:

View: https://twitter.com/DigsPitcher/status/1611945576832327681
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
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Bread of Yaz

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Jon, how solid is Holmes as the closer? He was really rocky in the second half, perhaps was hiding an injury. Would Yankees ever turn the ball over to Trevino or Loisiaga? Thanks.
 

jon abbey

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Jon, how solid is Holmes as the closer? He was really rocky in the second half, perhaps was hiding an injury. Would Yankees ever turn the ball over to Trevino or Loisiaga? Thanks.
First of all, you need to be careful with Tre/ivino's on this team, Trevino is the (Platinum Glove) catcher, Trivino is the reliever they got from OAK.

Secondly to try to answer your question, I think Holmes probably has the inside track to start the season, but NY has plenty of options. Loaisiga and Trivino as you say, Wandy was the closer when Holmes was unavailable in the postseason, Kahnle has a lot of big game experience (although only 5 career saves, one since 2018), and Weissert and Cordero closed in AAA last year (Cordero after Weissert was called up).

On top of all of that, I still think there's a real chance Britton comes back on the first day of spring training when NY can put Effross and possibly Gil on the 60 man IL, so they should have lots of options.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Extremely wise move. Astros are letting Framber Valdez throw in WBC after he had a heavy workload last season, and pitched lots of extra innings in the playoffs and WS, and I believe they will regret it