2022-23 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Doctor G

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So I think the Yankee 40 man roster is full again, although clearly they need more position players and fewer pitchers.

SP (9): Cole, Cortes, Severino, Montas, German, Schmidt, Brito, Krook, Vasquez
RP (16) : Holmes, Loaisiga, King, Kahnle, Marinaccio, Luetge, Peralta, Trevino, Weissert, Abreu, Cordero, Fernandez, Garcia, Gomez, Effross, Gil

C (3): Trevino, Higashioka, Rortvedt
IF (7): Rizzo, Torres, LeMahieu, Peraza, Cabrera, IKF, Donaldson
OF (5): Stanton, Bader, Hicks, Florial, Pereira
I think dumping Donaldson will be addition by subtraction.I don't think I would want this guy around any of my young players.
 

ehaz

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I don't like any of the available left fielders at the price they will command, I'd prefer just to play Oswaldo there until Dominguez or Pereira is ready to step in, or trade for Reynolds. The offense will be better with the kids involved plus hopefully a healthy DJ, and the rotation would be the best in baseball with Rodon added to Cole, Cortes, Severino and Montas.
I was always scared of New York signing Michael Brantley and watching him hit 30 home runs in Yankee Stadium, but he's probably too old and damaged at this point in his career.
 

Murderer's Crow

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If the Yankees do wind up with Rodon, they're gonna have some roster problems. I think if it happens, they finally trade German or flip Montas.

Starter depth is already strong and becomes quite obvious why Cashman traded Monty.

My prediction?

Cole
Severino
Rodon
Cortes
Montas
Schmidt

German packaged with Donaldson for nothing considerable. IKF and Torres are held for depth.
 

jon abbey

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If the Yankees do wind up with Rodon, they're gonna have some roster problems. I think if it happens, they finally trade German or flip Montas.

Starter depth is already strong and becomes quite obvious why Cashman traded Monty.

My prediction?

Cole
Severino
Rodon
Cortes
Montas
Schmidt

German packaged with Donaldson for nothing considerable. IKF and Torres are held for depth.
That all makes a lot of sense, although I think Cashman probably sent too much for Montas to flip him, similar to Gallo last year (both acquired with a year plus 2 months of control left), maybe it could happen at the deadline.

One thing that we still don't fully know is why the generally careful to horde depth whenever possible Cashman traded so much high level pitching depth at the deadline. Not just Montgomery but Wesneski and Sears and Waldichuk were all in MLB rotations to end last season after being moved by NY at the deadline, that is kind of crazy. Maybe they have confidence that a few of the guys like Randy Vazquez and Will Warren and Jhony Brito and Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez would step up if needed, we will know a lot more of their ideas about who is the next group behind the top 6-7 when we see the Scranton rotation to start the season.
 

EvilEmpire

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The words "roster problems" with regard to having too many starting pitchers kind of scares me, but yeah, I'd love to see Rodon in pinstripes.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Cashman said something weird on yes. You can check the video posted 21 hours ago on the YES instagram page. "We obviously don't have anything official to speak to but there's been noise about another RF and reliever we're after" and "lf is a vacancy and we've got other holes to fill."
 

jon abbey

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“RF and reliever” is Judge and Kahnle since neither is officially signed/announced.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Do we think Cole exercises his 2024 opt-out? He'll be 34 w/ $144m left on his contract.

I've been thinkin of the Judge contract in terms of committed money through the duration of the Cole and Stanton agreements but completely forgot that the Cole money could/probably will come off the books in 2 years.

Given the market rates this year, it seems fairly likely.
 

jon abbey

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That seems like a situation they don't have to worry about much for a long time, two more years before that and if he does opt out, they can keep him by adding one more year if they choose. So similarly to when CC opted out, it is very dependent on how the rest of NY's rotation looks at the time.
 

jon abbey

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Rumors floating around Twitter that Boras is trying to get NY to go for a Carlos y Carlos package, Correa and Rodon both. This seems very very very unlikely to me, but if Cashman knows he can move the Donaldson and Hicks deals (I have no idea), then I can at least see how it might be possible. Just Rodon works just fine for me though.
 

EvilEmpire

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That sounds crazy in a super heated market like this one unless Boras is offering two-for-one deals in the bargain aisle. Which of course is nonsense.

Seems to me like Boras isn't hearing the numbers that he expects for Correa given the current baseline for SS contracts. Wants "Yankees" and "Correa" to be printed in the same sentence out in the media sphere. I don't doubt that the Yankees are in on Rodon of course.

But who knows. It's silly season.
 

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The market for Correa not materializing over 2 years scares me. There are reasons, of course, market and player reasons. I just wonder if there's some other red flags organizations may be aware of.
 

EvilEmpire

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Has to be concerns about lingering back problems over the course of a really long contract, right? Teams being scared of a David Wright situation. Or for the Yankees, Don Mattingly. Even if those problems don't manifest again to the point where he has to stop playing, maybe there is concern that it could eventually move him off of SS.

The best way to mitigate that risk is a shorter contract. Maybe Boras is getting five year contract offers instead of ten.

Correa is good and still young-ish. It's the only thing that makes sense to me. I've never heard that he's a bad teammate or anything.
 

simplicio

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My guess is there just aren't teams left willing to pay completely insane money for free agents and that "baseline" isn't a true baseline at all for the remaining 26 teams.

That sounds crazy in a super heated market like this one unless Boras is offering two-for-one deals in the bargain aisle. Which of course is nonsense.

Seems to me like Boras isn't hearing the numbers that he expects for Correa given the current baseline for SS contracts. Wants "Yankees" and "Correa" to be printed in the same sentence out in the media sphere. I don't doubt that the Yankees are in on Rodon of course.

But who knows. It's silly season.
 

EvilEmpire

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Eh. I think there are still teams willing to give out big contracts to elite players and that the baseline for those elite players has never applied to every team in the league. Plenty of teams aren't willing to swim in those waters.

MLB is flush with cash. Players getting a bigger share of it with these recent contracts doesn't strike me as completely insane.

But again, with regard to Correa, I think there are legit concerns about how well he holds up over the length of a long contract and Boras is probably still trying to get him one for 8+ years, so maybe it won't work out. But I think more likely than not it will and he'll get something around $300 million.
 

Wingack

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Correa is obviously a great defender (though I haven't seen his metrics this year), but he is kind of mid offensively IMO, and he doesn't run anymore. I'd like the Yankees to spend elsewhere.
 

jon abbey

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What about Gleyber and a reliever to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot? Fangraphs has Gleyber projected at 3.4 WAR right now, which would be fourth highest on LAD. NY and LA made a deal at the deadline last year (Gallo for Beeter), that seems like it might make sense both ways. Pepiot would give NY some crucial rotation depth, still has options.
 

jon abbey

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Also this may be wildly wrong but I kind of think NY and Rodon may have agreed on a deal already but NY is waiting to announce it. NY is at 39 guys on the 40 man and have yet to officially announce Judge or Kahnle, so they may be trying to finish a trade or two before announcing FA signings (if they did it in the reverse order, it would start the clock on having to clear 40 man space).
 

E5 Yaz

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Also this may be wildly wrong but I kind of think NY and Rodon may have agreed on a deal already but NY is waiting to announce it. NY is at 39 guys on the 40 man and have yet to officially announce Judge or Kahnle, so they may be trying to finish a trade or two before announcing FA signings (if they did it in the reverse order, it would start the clock on having to clear 40 man space).
That makes sense, given that reports about Rodon have basically dried up
 

simplicio

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Reports
That makes sense, given that reports about Rodon have basically dried up
Reports about everyone have basically dried up. X to SD was a shark sighting at the beach, who wants to be first back in the water?
 

trapperkeeper

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Kinda funny that the source for this rumor is a former Islanders goalie. I also don't think that Hal would want to take that contract after paying Judge.
 

jon abbey

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On top of his other issues, Tatis is a pretty bad defensive SS, seems like a square peg in a round hole for NY. If SD wants to eat half his deal and give him up for nothing, then I'm sure Cashman would be interested, but I don't think he is moving anywhere.
 

trapperkeeper

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On top of his other issues, Tatis is a pretty bad defensive SS, seems like a square peg in a round hole for NY. If SD wants to eat half his deal and give him up for nothing, then I'm sure Cashman would be interested, but I don't think he is moving anywhere.
I think the Padres are going to be playing Tatis in the OF this season (he played a handful of games there last season) because they have Xander at SS now. I'd assume he'd be playing LF on a Yankees team with someone else at SS.
 

jon abbey

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That guy only has 700 followers, but I would say that seems like an educated guess. I was guessing 6/168 last week ($28M per), but that kind of Britton-type deal does make sense here given Rodon's pre-2021 injury history.
 

jon abbey

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No, it seems like they still have a slight stalemate, although YES led with a highlight reel of Rodon before talking about anything.
 

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There were very stupid and obviously made up rumors swirling about the Yankees sending Stanton+ to LAA for Trout and it got me thinking.

Would we sign Trout to a 9/$300m deal today (I think that's around what's left on his ontract) and would we rather have him, with his potentially career ending injuries, over Stanton and his 5/$110ish remaining?

I think the obvious answer is you have to take that gamble, even if Trout winds up DHing very quickly.
 

jon abbey

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Too many unknowns to answer that, who else is going to LAA in this deal that will never happen?

Ryan Yarbrough signs with KC, happy to see him out of the division. He allowed 2 ERs in 17 innings in 4 games against NY in 2022, was very good in previous years too.
 

jon abbey

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If we're posting over-the-top rumors (Michael Kay does keep saying publicly that Yankee execs keep telling him they are working on a big deal in addition to Rodon), the one just rumored is:

Donaldson, Montas and Hicks for Yelich and Woodruff plus maybe some cash.

Yelich has 6/156 left, Woodruff is controlled through 2024 (and isn't cheap, $13M this year so probably $18M or $20M next year), Donaldson/Hicks/Montas will make about $42M combined this year and Yelich/Woodruff $39M, plus Yelich would fill NY's LF hole (he was average there defensively last year) and if NY also signed Rodon, they would have the ridiculous rotation of:

Cole
Rodon
Woodruff
Cortes
Severino

This would also help NY after 2023, as they'd only have one SP FA (Severino) to possibly replace instead of two (Severino/Montas).

So as far as over-the-top trade rumors, this one makes sense to me. It's also somewhat along the lines of the deal Cashman made to get Yelich's old Marlins buddy Stanton, where they included Starlin Castro's remaining two years to somewhat balance the giant deal they would be taking on.
 

jon abbey

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Well, I would like that for sure obviously. But it feels like the Yankees would need to toss in some prospect chips. Which I would be OK with.
FWIW, Baseball Trade Values (not always right, but it's the only option) has that exchange favoring MIL:

Woodruff 50.5
Yelich -112.2

Total: -61.7

Montas 10.1
Hicks -17.4
Donaldson -20.3

Total: -27.6

But I'd throw in Gleyber (11.6) if needed.
 

EvilEmpire

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As far as over-the-top rumors go, that would be a fun one.

I do think it is interesting that we haven't heard anything about Gleyber lately. Or at least I haven't. Still early of course.
 

Wingack

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FWIW, Baseball Trade Values (not always right, but it's the only option) has that exchange favoring MIL:

Woodruff 50.5
Yelich -112.2

Total: -61.7

Montas 10.1
Hicks -17.4
Donaldson -20.3

Total: -27.6

But I'd throw in Gleyber (11.6) if needed.
I just don't see why MIL would do it. Presumably if they are trading Woodruff that would want some chips that help them down the line.
 

E5 Yaz

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If we're posting over-the-top rumors (Michael Kay does keep saying publicly that Yankee execs keep telling him they are working on a big deal in addition to Rodon), the one just rumored is:

Donaldson, Montas and Hicks for Yelich and Woodruff plus maybe some cash.

Yelich has 6/156 left, Woodruff is controlled through 2024 (and isn't cheap, $13M this year so probably $18M or $20M next year), Donaldson/Hicks/Montas will make about $42M combined this year and Yelich/Woodruff $39M, plus Yelich would fill NY's LF hole (he was average there defensively last year) and if NY also signed Rodon, they would have the ridiculous rotation of:

Cole
Rodon
Woodruff
Cortes
Severino

This would also help NY after 2023, as they'd only have one SP FA (Severino) to possibly replace instead of two (Severino/Montas).

So as far as over-the-top trade rumors, this one makes sense to me. It's also somewhat along the lines of the deal Cashman made to get Yelich's old Marlins buddy Stanton, where they included Starlin Castro's remaining two years to somewhat balance the giant deal they would be taking on.
That seems like not enough for Milwaukee
 

jon abbey

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I just don't see why MIL would do it. Presumably if they are trading Woodruff that would want some chips that help them down the line.
They'd be getting out of paying Yelich $26M per year through 2028, and they could flip Montas mid-season and Adames now (after adding Donaldson/Gleyber to the IF) for prospects if they wanted.
 

jon abbey

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That seems like not enough for Milwaukee
2022 bWAR:

Yelich: 2.7
Woodruff 2.7

Torres 4.1
Donaldson 2.4
Hicks 1.6
Montas 1.1

Plus NY would be taking on more money overall.

The Brewers pen looks thin from my quick glance just now, NY has excess there too and could add someone like Luetge.