2022 AFC Outlook

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Elite teams: Buffalo, Kansas City

Buffalo looks absolutely loaded. Allen has emerged as an elite QB, they have excellent coaching, and their last two seasons seem to have them primed to take the next step and make it to the Super Bowl. Anything can happen, of course, but they look like a tremendous football team this year. KC, meanwhile, still has Mahomes and Andy Reid, and plenty of talent. But Kelce is older and slower, and they no longer have Tyreek Hill, who's been so huge for them. So they won't be AS good, I don't think, but Mahomes is still elite. Don't underestimate them.

Should be really good: Cincinnati, LA Chargers
I think Cincy will be really good and could win the AFC again, obviously. But I think they kind of reached last year and aren't THAT good. The Chargers are a team on the rise and I think Herbert is terrific.

Looking very solid: Las Vegas, Baltimore, Denver, Indianapolis
You never know with Derek Carr, but they added DeVante Adams and also Chandler Jones on D. Vegas will be a problem this year, and they won 10 games last year. Baltimore still has terrific coaching and a lot of good pieces. Lamar Jackson is still dangerous. But they're no longer an elite team. Denver by adding Wilson has improved a ton, because they've had good pieces but terrible QB play. Now they have one of the best QBs in the league. They'll be really good. Indy improved by adding Matt Ryan, though I'm not a huge fan of his. He's just better than what they've had, and the rest of the team is pretty good.

A chance to be pretty good: Tennessee, Miami, New England
I think Tennessee could regress. No AJ Brown, and Henry has a ton of miles on him. And Tannehill isn't the guy to carry a team. BUT...Vrabel is really good, their D can be tough, and regression from Henry still leaves...a pretty good RB. Miami has added some nice pieces and I think they'll be a problem. All depends on Tua. And the Pats could be a 7 win team if things go poorly, but I could also see them winning 11 if things break right. Mac Jones will improve and they've gotten better skill position players, which he needs.

Have some good pieces but have major holes: Pittsburgh, Cleveland
The Steelers have some good aspects to their team, but their QB situation is really shaky. Cleveland, obviously, has major QB issues, until Watson returns from suspension. I wish he couldn't play at all (this is an editorial comment), but he can, and he's still a really good player, so when he gets on the field, they'll improve considerably and be tough the last third of the year.

The rest: NY Jets, Jacksonville, Houston
Not much to say other than that these teams have some problems. Don't be surprised if both Jax and the Jets improve from last year, but they're still the dregs of a loaded conference.


Long story short: this conference will be a beast. There's a ton of teams that have a chance to be really good. They can't all win 11 games, of course, so you'll have some good teams that win like 8 games. The playoffs will be a blood bath, which will be a load of fun. I think NE could be improved over last year and yet still finish with a worse record. But they're trending in the right direction from the standpoint of organizational development. So 2023 and 2024 could be really good years for the Pats moving forward. But even this year should be pretty fun.

Should be a great season for NFL fans, especially if your team is in the AFC. Can't wait for it to start!
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
37,330
Hingham, MA
It's funny, my dad and I were discussing the AFC last night and I said that I could see 11 teams with a chance to make the playoffs - and I had the the exact same list of 11 teams as you. The conference is going to be a bear, in particular the AFC West. I'm fascinated to see how KC does without Hill and with Kelce another year older. Vegas and Denver will also be on my watch list. I have Cincy and the Chargers as possible regression teams, but they're still pretty talented and competitive.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
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Apr 23, 2010
6,279
from the wilds of western ma
Elite teams: Buffalo, Kansas City

Buffalo looks absolutely loaded. Allen has emerged as an elite QB, they have excellent coaching, and their last two seasons seem to have them primed to take the next step and make it to the Super Bowl. Anything can happen, of course, but they look like a tremendous football team this year. KC, meanwhile, still has Mahomes and Andy Reid, and plenty of talent. But Kelce is older and slower, and they no longer have Tyreek Hill, who's been so huge for them. So they won't be AS good, I don't think, but Mahomes is still elite. Don't underestimate them.

Should be really good: Cincinnati, LA Chargers
I think Cincy will be really good and could win the AFC again, obviously. But I think they kind of reached last year and aren't THAT good. The Chargers are a team on the rise and I think Herbert is terrific.

Looking very solid: Las Vegas, Baltimore, Denver, Indianapolis
You never know with Derek Carr, but they added DeVante Adams and also Chandler Jones on D. Vegas will be a problem this year, and they won 10 games last year. Baltimore still has terrific coaching and a lot of good pieces. Lamar Jackson is still dangerous. But they're no longer an elite team. Denver by adding Wilson has improved a ton, because they've had good pieces but terrible QB play. Now they have one of the best QBs in the league. They'll be really good. Indy improved by adding Matt Ryan, though I'm not a huge fan of his. He's just better than what they've had, and the rest of the team is pretty good.

A chance to be pretty good: Tennessee, Miami, New England
I think Tennessee could regress. No AJ Brown, and Henry has a ton of miles on him. And Tannehill isn't the guy to carry a team. BUT...Vrabel is really good, their D can be tough, and regression from Henry still leaves...a pretty good RB. Miami has added some nice pieces and I think they'll be a problem. All depends on Tua. And the Pats could be a 7 win team if things go poorly, but I could also see them winning 11 if things break right. Mac Jones will improve and they've gotten better skill position players, which he needs.

Have some good pieces but have major holes: Pittsburgh, Cleveland
The Steelers have some good aspects to their team, but their QB situation is really shaky. Cleveland, obviously, has major QB issues, until Watson returns from suspension. I wish he couldn't play at all (this is an editorial comment), but he can, and he's still a really good player, so when he gets on the field, they'll improve considerably and be tough the last third of the year.

The rest: NY Jets, Jacksonville, Houston
Not much to say other than that these teams have some problems. Don't be surprised if both Jax and the Jets improve from last year, but they're still the dregs of a loaded conference.


Long story short: this conference will be a beast. There's a ton of teams that have a chance to be really good. They can't all win 11 games, of course, so you'll have some good teams that win like 8 games. The playoffs will be a blood bath, which will be a load of fun. I think NE could be improved over last year and yet still finish with a worse record. But they're trending in the right direction from the standpoint of organizational development. So 2023 and 2024 could be really good years for the Pats moving forward. But even this year should be pretty fun.

Should be a great season for NFL fans, especially if your team is in the AFC. Can't wait for it to start!
This is a good assessment. The two teams I might swap are Cincinnati and Denver. I think the Bengals could be in for a super bowl loss/hangover year. I also think they played a bit over their heads last year. I love Burrow, and I think they’ll still be a very tough out, I just think maybe I’d put them in them very solid category. As you point out, Denver has a pretty loaded roster already in place. I think the addition of Wilson, who is still elite, IMO, puts them firmly in the legit super bowl contender category, definitely on par with the Chargers, and knocking on the door of the first group. But overall, I think you’ve nailed it, and man, what a beast the AFC is indeed. I’m expecting an inordinate number of epic regular season games, ala Raiders/Chargers on the last Sunday night of last year. Great time to be a football fan.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Jul 4, 2006
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I can see why they Bengals are a popular regression candidate - they were only 10-7 (they tanked the last game, but whatever), their underlying numbers weren't great (3.1 SRS, -.1% DVOA) and they stayed pretty healthy, plus only one team in the last 49 years has won the Super Bowl the year after losing it. Only one of those teams though (the '84 Dolphins, where Marino probably put up the best season in history) had a QB with the age and production combo of Burrow. I think people realize how bad the OL was, but it's startling when you look at it now. Every start at LG/C/RG/RT were by guys who are either backups or out of the league. There's gigantic room for improvement, and it's there on paper. LG might be downgraded (Quinton Spain was solid for the most part and was replaced by rookie fourth-rounder Cordell Volson), but Ted Karras is a big upgrade on Trey Hopkins at C while Alex Cappa is an enormous improvement from the likely league-worst play they got from the RG du jour. Whether they're a legitimate contender pretty much hinges on RT La'el Collins. He's played at a high level when he's been on the field, but only started 10 games in the last two years, aggravated a back issue in July which caused him to start camp on NFI and looked terrible yesterday in the Rams practice (which is how the fights started). There's still another 2+ weeks to get up to speed for the opener, but if he doesn't have it they're going to need to be as fortunate as they were last year.

The reason I can see them sustaining the success is the improvement of the defense. They were only an average unit in the regular season, but they were integrating a bunch of new players and it all came together in January. They've got an elite pass rusher in Trey Hendrickson, an elite run stuffer in DJ Reader, a CB in Chidobe Awuzie who played at shutdown level last year while Bates (after a down regular season) was the best defensive player in the playoffs after Donald and a bunch of other solid to above average players. If last year's third-rounder Joseph Ossai (who beat Tristan Wirfs and wreaked havoc in his lone preseason game before missing the year) can be the nickel rusher they were missing last year and first-round S Dax Hill can be what they hope (he's certainly looked the part), they're going to be a very good unit.

All this to say it could go a bunch of different directions. I think their ceiling is as high as anyone's (Burrow didn't have his mobility the first half of the year either), but they don't have the floor of the Bills and Chiefs. They also play a first-place schedule but playing to competition obviously wasn't their problem - it was inconsistency (losses to the Bears and Jets and blown out by the Browns and Chargers at home). I think a young team 20 games more experienced and returning almost everyone should cure some of those woes. I see them as a very likely playoff team and going down to the wire with the Ravens (I hate they'll be good again, although Ronnie Stanley's health is looking very murky which is a huge cause for concern) for the division.
 

rodderick

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Apr 24, 2009
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The Bengals are a bit of a conundrum because both DVOA and EPA/Play don't think either Burrow or their offense in general were all that special last year and yet they were the main driving force behind their success. I think there's a chance they just had really fortunate timing with some Chase big plays and could potentially be a better unit this year with worse results. I don't really rate them anywhere near the Chiefs or Bills, I think they're much closer to the Patriots than they are to cream of the AFC crop.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Jul 4, 2006
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The Bengals are a bit of a conundrum because both DVOA and EPA/Play don't think either Burrow or their offense in general were all that special last year and yet they were the main driving force behind their success. I think there's a chance they just had really fortunate timing with some Chase big plays and could potentially be a better unit this year with worse results. I don't really rate them anywhere near the Chiefs or Bills, I think they're much closer to the Patriots than they are to cream of the AFC crop.
Yeah, that's quite defensible hence why I said they don't have their floor. A large chunk of that though was horrific protection, which has certainly been fortified at C/RG and hopefully at RT. The big three didn't go anywhere and are still well in their primes while Hayden Hurst is a more fluid receiver than Uzomah at TE. There's certainly a bunch of different ways this can go.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
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Indianapolis is a funny one to me. They looked awful at times last year and Wentz was so bad. I have no idea how much of a difference Ryan will make, so I would drop them down a tier.

I will say with some assurance that the worst division winner in the AFC will be the team that wins the AFC South. I'll take the points on the visiting team in the WC round.

Edit: Prediction #2 is that as good as the AFC is top to nearly bottom, 75% of the national discussion will be about the four top NFC teams (LAR, TB, GB, DAL).
 
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Saints Rest

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This line about Indy -- "Indy improved by adding Matt Ryan, though I'm not a huge fan of his. He's just better than what they've had, and the rest of the team is pretty good." -- could, IMO, be used for Denver: "Denver improved by adding Russell Wilson, though I'm not a huge fan of his. He's just better than what they've had, and the rest of the team is pretty good."

Looking at how deep this conference is makes me wonder if the top seeds will all have fewer wins than in past years. 5 of the last 7 years, the top AFC team has won at least 13 games. There may be a bit more in the way of intra-divisional splits, especially in the AFC East and West, than in past years; I doubt that any team, not even BUF or KC, can go 6-0 in their own division. Hence top seed might be closer to 11-6 than 13-4 (even last year, top seed was only 12-5).
 

Harry Hooper

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There is the question of Josh Allen and the Bills offense after the departure of Brian Daboll.
 

BusRaker

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Aug 11, 2006
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Looking very solid: Las Vegas, Baltimore, Denver, Indianapolis
... Denver by adding Wilson has improved a ton, because they've had good pieces but terrible QB play. Now they have one of the best QBs in the league. They'll be really good. Indy improved by adding Matt Ryan, though I'm not a huge fan of his. He's just better than what they've had, and the rest of the team is pretty good.
This isn't the 2016 Ryan and Wilson replacing them. I think both of these QB will disappoint leading to mediocre 8-9 win teams

2021 Russ 14g 7.11 ANY/A 64.8% Comp 25TD 6 INT
2021 Teddy 14g 6.32 ANY/A 66.9% Comp 18TD 7 INT

2021 Matty 17g 5.92 ANY/A 67.0% Comp 20TD 12 INT
2021 Wentzy 17g 6.50 ANY/A 62.4% Comp 17TC 7 INT
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
3,678
Arkansas
my 02
etile - buff
very good lac balt indy ciny kc
good den tenn ne mia vegas
a year away pitt cle jax hou
last Jets
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
3,678
Arkansas
This isn't the 2016 Ryan and Wilson replacing them. I think both of these QB will disappoint leading to mediocre 8-9 win teams

2021 Russ 14g 7.11 ANY/A 64.8% Comp 25TD 6 INT
2021 Teddy 14g 6.32 ANY/A 66.9% Comp 18TD 7 INT

2021 Matty 17g 5.92 ANY/A 67.0% Comp 20TD 12 INT
2021 Wentzy 17g 6.50 ANY/A 62.4% Comp 17TC 7 INT
1 thing people foget about denver is they lose 4 games by 19 pts the 2 kc games Cle vegas ciny with better sitonal football last year denver is 10-7