2022 Bruins Camps

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
Stab at the roster after a week and a half and the first cuts:

Zacha - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Hall - Krejci - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Greer - Nosek - Foligno
Studnicka

Greer has made a name for himself and Monty acknowledged that if the rosters needed to be set today, he'd be on the team. There is still some time left for others to make a push but he seems to have a firm hold on a roster spot. Wagner is a cap casualty. Studnicka has been up and down, but the up was recent. I also think it's more likely that Steen passes through waivers than Studnicka. I think the bigger question will be how they use Studnicka to start the year.

Lindholm - Stralman
Zboril - Carlo
Forbort - Clifton
Reilly

6 guys are set, the 7th is a battle between Stralman and Carrick. I think they'll end up signing Stralman as long as he's not a total disaster, which he wasn't through 1 game.

Swayman
Ullmark

Nothing to see in net. It'll be those 2 with a 50/50 split barring injury.
 

katnado

lurker
Aug 14, 2016
452
Wags and Fredrick going down/released clears 2.4 million roughly, they're currently ~2.2 million over the cap. So they'd have roughly 200k to play with. 750k is league minimum right? How are they signing Stralman? Or am I missing something? I'll readily admit I don't know cap stuff well at all. So happy to be educated!
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
Wags and Fredrick going down/released clears 2.4 million roughly, they're currently ~2.2 million over the cap. So they'd have roughly 200k to play with. 750k is league minimum right? How are they signing Stralman? Or am I missing something? I'll readily admit I don't know cap stuff well at all. So happy to be educated!
Quck note- they can't totally waive away a salary unless someone claims the player. When you waive and demote a player like Wagner, a portiion of his salary stays on the cap. I can't remember the exact number, but essentially it's around $1 million that you can "bury" in the minors. The rest of the players salary stays on your cap. Wagner spent all last season in the AHL but the Bruins were carrying a $350,000 cap charge for him all season. This was designed so teams couldn't demote their bad contracts to the AHL for cap relief.

The Bruins are going to be doing a cap dance this season. They are likely going to use LTIR (long term injury) to start the season due to the injuries to McAvoy, Marchand and Grzelyck. LTIR lets them exceed the salary cap by the total salary of the players on LTIR. If they place all 3 on LTIR, that's ~$19.3 million they can exceed the cap by. So, in the short term they have more than enough cap space. That said, when those 3 players are healthy they will need to get under the cap to activate them. I think the true number they are over, when healthy, is closer to $2.6 million. There is some bottom of the roster shuffling that Cap Friendly hasn't accounted for yet. For instance they have Wagner and Steen on the roster but not Greer, McLaughlin or Studnicka. So the $2.2 million listed is going to change a bit once they get the opening night roster set. If they sign Stralman, that number goes up by whatever his salary comes in at (I'm guessing he'd come in at like $850,000).

We'll see how they handle getting under. It'll probably take a trade or two. The other options are a slew of veteran demotions (Foligno, Nosek, Reilly, Wagner, etc.) or playing cap roulette with LTIR and hoping you have an injury to LTIR at all times.
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 16, 2011
1,411
[SNIP] Quck note- they can't totally waive away a salary unless someone claims the player. When you waive and demote a player like Wagner, a portiion of his salary stays on the cap. I can't remember the exact number, but essentially it's around $1 million that you can "bury" in the minors. The rest of the players salary stays on your cap. Wagner spent all last season in the AHL but the Bruins were carrying a $350,000 cap charge for him all season. This was designed so teams couldn't demote their bad contracts to the AHL for cap relief.
@cshea has it. Wagner, for example, would still cost $225K against this year’s cap. Nosek: $625K. Foligno: $2.675 million.

(From Capfriendly):
What is a Buried Contract?
Teams do not receive full cap relief when a player on a one-way NHL contract is reassigned to the American Hockey League, or is loaned to a team in another professional league.
The players salary cap hit, minus the sum of the minimum NHL salary for the respective season and $375,000, still counts towards the team’s salary cap total.
The cap hit relief is therefore equal to the minimum salary of the respective season + $375,000:
  • 2022-23: $750,000 + $375,000 = $1,125,000
  • 2023-24: $775,000 + $375,000 = $1,150,000
  • 2024-25: $775,000 + $375,000 = $1,150,000
  • 2025-26: $775,000 + $375,000 = $1,150,000
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
Wow. That seems way more optimistic than I expected.
The gist is basically they were a 107 point team last year and they added Krejci without subtracting anything. The model does account for the early injury situation (except for Hall) but think's they'll be fine. It does not account for coaching effects so that's a bit of an unknown.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
25,599
@cshea has it. Wagner, for example, would still cost $225K against this year’s cap. Nosek: $625K. Foligno: $2.675 million.
2.7M?! I'm just going to change Foligno's first name to "Jesus" now, instead of waiting to the inevitable moments on Opening Night when I'm shouting "Jesus, Foligno" when he does or doesn't do something he should or should not have.
 

katnado

lurker
Aug 14, 2016
452
Quck note- they can't totally waive away a salary unless someone claims the player. When you waive and demote a player like Wagner, a portiion of his salary stays on the cap. I can't remember the exact number, but essentially it's around $1 million that you can "bury" in the minors. The rest of the players salary stays on your cap. Wagner spent all last season in the AHL but the Bruins were carrying a $350,000 cap charge for him all season. This was designed so teams couldn't demote their bad contracts to the AHL for cap relief.

The Bruins are going to be doing a cap dance this season. They are likely going to use LTIR (long term injury) to start the season due to the injuries to McAvoy, Marchand and Grzelyck. LTIR lets them exceed the salary cap by the total salary of the players on LTIR. If they place all 3 on LTIR, that's ~$19.3 million they can exceed the cap by. So, in the short term they have more than enough cap space. That said, when those 3 players are healthy they will need to get under the cap to activate them. I think the true number they are over, when healthy, is closer to $2.6 million. There is some bottom of the roster shuffling that Cap Friendly hasn't accounted for yet. For instance they have Wagner and Steen on the roster but not Greer, McLaughlin or Studnicka. So the $2.2 million listed is going to change a bit once they get the opening night roster set. If they sign Stralman, that number goes up by whatever his salary comes in at (I'm guessing he'd come in at like $850,000).

We'll see how they handle getting under. It'll probably take a trade or two. The other options are a slew of veteran demotions (Foligno, Nosek, Reilly, Wagner, etc.) or playing cap roulette with LTIR and hoping you have an injury to LTIR at all times.
I completely understand and knew all the LTIR stuff, but definitely wasn't tracking the AHL "burying" of contracts and how that works. So I appreciate the explanation! I learned something new. I'll also be honest I just assumed they weren't going to use LTIR on anyone since in theory they'll all be back by end of November. Hence why I wasn't seeing how they were getting under the cap without waiving some contracts (or a trade) BUT also now that I have a better grasp of how that relief is actually applied I can see that yea they'll probably need to look at LTIR. So thanks again, as always appreciate your knowledge and insight!
 

Jordu

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2003
8,225
Brookline
The gist is basically they were a 107 point team last year and they added Krejci without subtracting anything. The model does account for the early injury situation (except for Hall) but think's they'll be fine. It does not account for coaching effects so that's a bit of an unknown.
Yes, the coaching effect is unpredictable. The hope is that Montgomery can get more out of Studnicka, Steen, Frederic, DeBrusk, and Carlo while helping the core players to do what they do. If he succeeds, then the bottom six forwards improve, DeBrusk uses his speed all 82 games, and Carlo becomes more of an offensive force. That’s the best case.

The worst case is without Cassidy’s one-mistake-and-you-sit coaching, we start to see more mental errors and breakdowns from these guys.

I‘m a Cassidy fan, but I think the odds are better than even that Montgomery coaxes the depth players into better years than they gave the team last year. A training-camp optimist, I am.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
I completely understand and knew all the LTIR stuff, but definitely wasn't tracking the AHL "burying" of contracts and how that works. So I appreciate the explanation! I learned something new. I'll also be honest I just assumed they weren't going to use LTIR on anyone since in theory they'll all be back by end of November. Hence why I wasn't seeing how they were getting under the cap without waiving some contracts (or a trade) BUT also now that I have a better grasp of how that relief is actually applied I can see that yea they'll probably need to look at LTIR. So thanks again, as always appreciate your knowledge and insight!
I've fooled around with the armchair GM tool on Cap Friendly quite a bit and I can't get them cap compliant without LTI or a trade. Closest I get is $391K over and that's by demoting Foligno, Nosek and Wagner in favor of Steen, Studnicka and Greer, carrying no extras, not signing Stralman and it also includes Hall in the lineup.

So, it's not remotely possible. They don't strike me as the type of FO who will monkey around with LTIR all year so that's why I think they will be making a cap clearing trade. It's just a matter of when. I would think they would try to get it done sooner rather than later for leverage purposes. The problem at the moment is they need bodies due to all the injuries. Grzelyck is ahead of schedule, so if they sign Stralman maybe they can deal Reilly over the next week and survive with what they've got for the first few games before Grzelyck returns.
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 16, 2011
1,411
2.7M?! I'm just going to change Foligno's first name to "Jesus" now, instead of waiting to the inevitable moments on Opening Night when I'm shouting "Jesus, Foligno" when he does or doesn't do something he should or should not have.
In this scenario I hope you’re watching Jesus through your binoculars while he’s double dipping his chips up on the 9th floor.
 

PedroSpecialK

Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2004
26,881
Cambridge, MA
Not that I think he’s some world beater but losing Steen for nothing would blow - especially to keep deadwood like Foligno around.

Cheap bottom 6 guys w upside are what they should be adding
 

The Napkin

wise ass al kaprielian
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2002
26,557
right here
Foligno's a good guy and all but man would I love to have his roster space / $ available. I'm afraid it's going to be a long year watching him in front of the net on the pp. Among other things.
 

Dummy Hoy

Angry Pissbum
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2006
7,824
Falmouth
Do we think that there’s any chance that Foligno rebounds? He’s talking a good game about how injuries slowed him, he never got going, etc.

For the record i think homey’s feet are too slow to play in the league anymore but I’d love to be wrong.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
16,396
Do we think that there’s any chance that Foligno rebounds? He’s talking a good game about how injuries slowed him, he never got going, etc.

For the record i think homey’s feet are too slow to play in the league anymore but I’d love to be wrong.
If he was a stock I'd short him. He's cooked -- too old (35 in a few weeks) and slow.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
They also cut Berglund, Callahan and Wissmann yesterday. I think this is what they are down to:

Zacha - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Hall - Krejci - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Greer - Nosek - Foligno
Wagner, Studnicka, Lysell, Lettieri, Koppanen, McLaughlin, Beecher, Lauko

Lindholm - Stralman
Zboril - Carlo
Forbort - Clifton
Reilly, Ahcan, Renouf

The D seems to be coming into focus. I think Stralman/Ahcan is the remaining battle.

Forwards, they probably have 2 spots open. Hall's injury replacement and the 13th F. If I had to handicap at this point, I think McLaughlin and Studnicka are the leaders in the clubhouse for those 2 spots.
 

veritas

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2009
3,133
Somerville, MA
Foligno shot 2% last season and the team shot 4.4% when he was on the ice. Both of those are absurdly unsustainable. Nothing about his possession metrics suggest he’s cooked. He’s not going to live up to his contract but he’s still fine. He’s better than a lot of players that are going to be getting minutes for them this season.
 

PedroSpecialK

Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2004
26,881
Cambridge, MA
Foligno shot 2% last season and the team shot 4.4% when he was on the ice. Both of those are absurdly unsustainable. Nothing about his possession metrics suggest he’s cooked. He’s not going to live up to his contract but he’s still fine. He’s better than a lot of players that are going to be getting minutes for them this season.
Going to savor this for when he shoots 4% en route to 5 ES goals this season
 

burstnbloom

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 12, 2005
2,666
Foligno shot 2% last season and the team shot 4.4% when he was on the ice. Both of those are absurdly unsustainable. Nothing about his possession metrics suggest he’s cooked. He’s not going to live up to his contract but he’s still fine. He’s better than a lot of players that are going to be getting minutes for them this season.
While his shooting percentage is unsustainable, he also played the easiest minutes of any forward on the bruins. I would disagree that nothing about his underlying numbers suggest he's cooked. The aging curve hit Foligno about 3 years ago and he's teetering off the edge of it. Evolving Hockey had him as the 3rd worst forward in hockey last year and below replacement level at -6.8 GAR after being just below replacement level the year before. His GAR numbers the last 4 years show a clear and pronounced decline as he heads toward his middle 30's. I don't think there is much hope that he recovers any value this year. Evolving Hockey projects him to be worth approx .9 GAR for the season over 700ish minutes. That accounts for positive shooting regression. Replacement level. I'd argue that he's got the track record to show he's the worst player on this team.

21/22 : -6.8
20/21: -.2
19/20: 5.3
18/19: 10
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
25,599
Lysell is alsoi back without limitationst. Appears to be in the game lineup tonight.
Given that Hall's absence is finite, would giving Lysell some early regular-season time with either Krejci or Bergeron make sense? Would it be less pressure, knowing that he's not really trying to win a job and he can just go out and play (on a line with the best) and learn first-hand what he needs to do to fulfill the (large) expectations that have been placed on him. Or does that one check that knocked him out for a week say mostly all that needs to be said?
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 16, 2011
1,411
I’m generally an optimist but even I’m having trouble with finding any lightning to catch in this bottle:

Something perhaps noteworthy though: Foligno and Bergeron paired together in every drill.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
25,599
I’m generally an optimist but even I’m having trouble with finding any lightning to catch in this bottle:



Speculated elsewhere:
What can we expect the Bruins’ forward lines to look like on opening night? - The Boston Globe

If they want to keep DeBrusk at right wing, they could play a larger, older player in the No. 1 LW spot, such as Nick Foligno, Trent Frederic, or A.J. Greer. That would remove some of the attacking steam from the line. Perhaps Zacha, who opened camp with Bergeron and Lysell, could be a better fit there.
---------------
The Bruins value Foligno’s personality and experience, and he believes he’s ready for a bounce-back year after struggling through injuries. Greer looks like a more appealing option at this point for the fourth line. Here’s a potential swerve: Montgomery could try Foligno as Bergeron’s left wing, dropping Zacha to the third line to create an effective trio there.
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 16, 2011
1,411
If Hall is out for a bit and they keep DeBrusk at RW, it's basically Greer (AAAA guy so far), Frederic or Foligno in that spot. Pick your poison.
That’s why I’m relieved to see DeBrusk in at left wing tonight. Montgomery could decide to do DeBrusk/Bergeron/Lysell for a few games. (He also put Nosek in at LW in the previous preseason game so he could be in the mix as a reliable vet/low mistake type).

But the tea leaves say he’s giving Foligno the first shot to ride shotgun with Bergeron.

I’d like to see them shade towards more youth and trade/waive Wagner/Nosek/Foligno/Forbort. Even if the Foligno waivers are just a paper transfer and they call him up as soon as they put someone on LTIR and sign Stralman. They could play the first game with youngsters - Greer, McLaughlin, Studnicka (and hopefully Lysell) have earned a shot. I know Studnicka hasn’t lit the world on fire but he’s showing growth and I’d hate to lose him if the team has paper moves that could preserve him as an asset and they choose to stroke veteran egos instead. They need to put the effort into developing centers.

If they think they see something worth trying to resurrect in Foligno I guess that’s ok, I just don’t want to lose assets to do so. And with the top 2 LW injured this is a good time to explore other options. Foligno’s untradeable so if it comes down to it I‘d rather trade/waive Nosek than waive Studnicka.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
I just think they can't take Foligno off the roster due to the depth chart. Hall appears ahead of schedule but there's no guarantee he's not going to miss any time. If that's the case, the LW depth chart:

DeBrusk (assuming they do move him back)
Frederic
Greer

Then what?
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 16, 2011
1,411
I just think they can't take Foligno off the roster due to the depth chart. Hall appears ahead of schedule but there's no guarantee he's not going to miss any time. If that's the case, the LW depth chart:

DeBrusk (assuming they do move him back)
Frederic
Greer

Then what?
I’d put him fifth on the current LW depth chart (While Marchand and Hall are on the shelf):

Zacha
DeBrusk
Frederic
Greer
Foligno
Nosek

They probably won’t axe Foligno (but again, I’d do a paper waiver if it helps keep Studnicka - no one will claim Foligno). Hey, I hope he turns it around. I’d just prefer that they try him on the bottom 6 and not drag down Bergeron’s line.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
Practice lines today:

Foligno - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Zacha - Krejci - Pastrnak
Greer - Coyle - Smith
Frederic - Nosek - Lauko

Studnicka, Wagner, Hall (non-contact)

Lindholm - Carlo
Reilly - Zboril
Forbort - Clifton
Grzelyck (no-contact) - Stralman

McLaughlin is not on the ice. Not sure if it's injury related.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
Beecher and Lysell are also not at practice. If this was a round of cuts, Lauko sticking over McLaughlin would be a surprise.

Also should note that the opening rosters can be funky for cap purposes. If they are going to use LTIR, they need to be as close to the cap as possible in order to maximize the LTIR room.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,283
Gallows Hill
I’m very surprised that they sent McLaughlin down. I thought he looked great in the preseason games. But as we know, at the end of the day it’s usually the player’s contract situation that dictates these decisions.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,060
The back of your computer
I wonder if this means they think Hall will be ready for the season opener. Also, Lauko and Greer are still up (maybe Lauko is Hall insurance, since I assume Greer stays until Marchand is healthy).
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,060
The back of your computer
I’m very surprised that they sent McLaughlin down. I thought he looked great in the preseason games. But as we know, at the end of the day it’s usually the player’s contract situation that dictates these decisions.
Joe Haggerty
@HackswithHaggs

30m

Monty on McLaughlin: "He had a great camp. We're really happy w/his development. Certain areas of his game we really want him to focus on in Providence. Details, physicality & stuff. His offensive production, his tenacity on pucks & ability to score...all of that has shown thru"
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
32,632
306, row 14
I’m very surprised that they sent McLaughlin down. I thought he looked great in the preseason games. But as we know, at the end of the day it’s usually the player’s contract situation that dictates these decisions.
The more I think about it, the more I don't think it's cap maneuvering. They have 4 days to get cap compliant. They wouldn't send him down this early as a cap move if they were going to paper maneuver him around to get compliant. Secondly, unless there is a trade coming, they are going into LTIR so cap space is basically irrelevant at this point.