2022 NBA Draft: The Life of Paolo

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
Benedict Matthurin is going to be the best player in the class. Would have said before tonights game, but a good reminder.

Ben > Chet. Not close.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
Benedict Matthurin is going to be the best player in the class. Would have said before tonights game, but a good reminder.

Ben > Chet. Not close.
If nothing else Mathurin is probably ten pounds heavier than Holmgren.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
If nothing else Mathurin is probably ten pounds heavier than Holmgren.
Ben is listed as 20 lbs heavier (210 to 190).

I don’t watch a ton of college basketball but have seen a decent amount of PAC-12 this year. Especially UCLA and Arizona.

Mathurin has been the best guy on the court every game I’ve seen him play. Super athletic, good shooter, skilled, rebounds well for a guard, 19 years old. Not sure on his playmaking and overall floor game, as they seem to use him mainly as a slasher and shooter.

Initially I thought maybe he was undersized for a non PG and that could hold him back a bit. But if he’s 6’6”-6’7” as I see him listed, the guy is going to end up a top 3 pick.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
My money would be on Jabari Smith
I’d hate to be the GM who chooses Chet over Jabari. Exposure can elevate players and it can also expose them. Paulo could have done an ACL after his first game or two and still been picked higher than he may now that we see his athletic limitations and defensive limitations/indifferences.

There will be some exciting wings entering the league next year and that’s a good thing.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
I have the same kind of concerns that everyone else has about Chet; that he needs to add some weight and that he will be overwhelmed by the physicality of the NBA.

I think though, a lot of people have been way too dismissive of him as a legit super prospect. The ceiling for him is incredibly high; he could be the best defensive player in the NBA, perhaps not just as a C but as a jumbo-wing; as he has shown all season at Gonzaga that he can play alongside a more traditional 5 in Drew Timme, and still be a very efficient player. He has been a great shooter in college and scouts agree that it should translate to the NBA. He has the quickness and agility to step out out the perimeter on switches, and the length and explosiveness to intimidate shooters at the rim. He doesn't have the strength of Giannis, obviously, but he is longer and has much better defensive instincts at this stage of his career than Giannis did. Another comp would be how the Celtics use Time Lord defensively; paired with another big and using his length and athleticism to disrupt players all over the floor, not just protecting the rim.

The comparisons to Shawn Bradley are so lazy. Yeah he's tall, white and super skinny. He is so much more advanced offensively than Bradley ever was, to the point that it's not even comparable. The other thing is that even if you want to compare him to Bradley, defensively Bradley was a very good player for a number of years, and while there are plenty of posters of Bradley over the years, the fact was that he was an elite rim-protector in his prime, just like Chet can be.

Lastly, he is a tough player. You don't have the #1 ranking as an elite high school/AAU player as a skinny white kid that everyone wants to dunk on and maintain that ranking without exhibiting a lot of toughness. He doesn't care if he gets dunked on, he doesn't shy away from contact; he's aggressive and remains resilient.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
My money is still on Ivey.
I like Ivey too, could see him eventually best in class.

I've got Mathurin somewhere between pre-injury Oladipo and Dwyane Wade. And yes, I may be entirely too high on him..... perhaps I caught the right games.

But he was Pac-12 player of the year at 19. Great mix of upside and already flashing lots of NBA-level skill.
 

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,936
Holmgren is tough because he's a player archetype we haven't seen. What was the archetype for Jokic before Jokic? James Harden before James Harden?

Can you imagine Holmgren playing the weakside help role in a two big lineup like Rob Williams? He's a better passer than Rob. He's a better outside shooter than Rob. He'll be worse as a shot blocker/rim protector presumably (Holmgren can't cover ground like Rob -- but then nobody covers ground like Rob at that size except for Giannis), but imagine the Celtics offense if Rob Williams was a 38% 3 point shooter.

Holmgren is a guy you have to build a team around, but I don't think it's that hard to do. He's not Ben Simmons.

So basically, I agree with Kliq.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
Holmgren is tough because he's a player archetype we haven't seen. What was the archetype for Jokic before Jokic? James Harden before James Harden?

Can you imagine Holmgren playing the weakside help role in a two big lineup like Rob Williams? He's a better passer than Rob. He's a better outside shooter than Rob. He'll be worse as a shot blocker/rim protector presumably (Holmgren can't cover ground like Rob -- but then nobody covers ground like Rob at that size except for Giannis), but imagine the Celtics offense if Rob Williams was a 38% 3 point shooter.

Holmgren is a guy you have to build a team around, but I don't think it's that hard to do. He's not Ben Simmons.

So basically, I agree with Kliq.
I can't really say for certainty if this is really the case, but I've heard several draft people (Kevin O'Connor, Mike Schmitz) say that he has a lot more offensive skill that isn't always on display at Gonzaga because he plays with such a good, experienced team. He is a great roll-guy, but doesn't do that a ton because Timme is such a great role guy, and he has post game but doesn't get a ton of touches because Timme gets a ton of post touches and they need Chet to spread the floor.

He will be an interesting player because he has a little Klay Thompson in him in the sense that you can slide him into almost any team and he would be effective. At a minimum (if things go well for him) you are getting great defense and effective shooting, and if you need him to do more he can do more. I think about him on the Pistons; you have Cade, Saddiq Bey and Stewart; you could easily slide Holmgren into that lineup and he'd help out a lot on both ends, but not do anything that takes away from the other young pieces.
 

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,936
Well, I don't think anyone thinks the Holmgren issue is on offense (but maybe I haven't been listening closely enough). The question is who he can defend at the NBA level, and nobody thinks he can defend centers right now -- and maybe ever. Then the issue becomes can he guard the slowest wing. What if he switches out onto a speedier player? Can he move his feet fast enough on the perimeter? If not, what is that player on defense?

And of course, the issue isn't whether he gets drafted 1st or 10th, but more like 1st or 3rd. Even the most skeptical GMs don't have him ranked lower than 4th or 5th.

Watching him play on the under-whatevers for the US against France, his offensive game was quite advanced. He's a very smart player. He can be both a connector and a scorer. Offensively he is both portable and scalable. I can't see how anyone would question that part of his game.
 

jmcc5400

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2000
5,219
The comparisons to Shawn Bradley are so lazy. Yeah he's tall, white and super skinny. He is so much more advanced offensively than Bradley ever was, to the point that it's not even comparable. The other thing is that even if you want to compare him to Bradley, defensively Bradley was a very good player for a number of years, and while there are plenty of posters of Bradley over the years, the fact was that he was an elite rim-protector in his prime, just like Chet can be.
As someone who made a drive-by reference to Chet comparing him to Shawn Bradley, I did want to note that that wasn't entirely shade - Bradley was a great defender at the rim, even if he was notoriously posterized from time to time (and Chet will be also, I think). (Bradley also wasn't a complete stiff, offensively - he had pretty nice touch).

But I also agree that the comparison is lazy and that Chet's offensive skills are light years ahead of Bradley. I do think his frame is problematic and I would not be comfortable drafting him in the top 4. I think the team that drafts him is going to have to be patient for him to fill out.

But an offensively advanced Shawn Bradley is a really valuable piece.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
As someone who made a drive-by reference to Chet comparing him to Shawn Bradley, I did want to note that that wasn't entirely shade - Bradley was a great defender at the rim, even if he was notoriously posterized from time to time (and Chet will be also, I think). (Bradley also wasn't a complete stiff, offensively - he had pretty nice touch).

But I also agree that the comparison is lazy and that Chet's offensive skills are light years ahead of Bradley. I do think his frame is problematic and I would not be comfortable drafting him in the top 4. I think the team that drafts him is going to have to be patient for him to fill out.

But an offensively advanced Shawn Bradley is a really valuable piece.
The Bradley situation is also complicated by the fact that he wasn't as aggressive or hardened as someone like Chet when he comes into the league. Bradley played high school basketball in rural Utah, a year in college, and then two years not playing basketball because he was on a mission. Chet grew up playing elite prep basketball and on the AAU circuit, with guys challenging him all the time.

Mildly related, but I came across this SI story on Bradley's live after becoming a quadriplegic last year following a cycling accident: https://www.si.com/nba/2022/01/12/shawn-bradley-paralyzed-bike-accident-daily-cover?utm_source=recommendations&utm_medium=in-article&utm_campaign=end-of-story
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,406
around the way
I wouldn't pick Chet top 2, but I think that anything below that is defensible. Durant famously couldn't bench 185 once at the combine, and that shit didn't matter. Guy was productive immediately and a stud before he could drink legally. Nevermind the 25 pounds that he put on since, he was a stud as a mantis too.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
As someone who made a drive-by reference to Chet comparing him to Shawn Bradley, I did want to note that that wasn't entirely shade - Bradley was a great defender at the rim, even if he was notoriously posterized from time to time (and Chet will be also, I think). (Bradley also wasn't a complete stiff, offensively - he had pretty nice touch).

But I also agree that the comparison is lazy and that Chet's offensive skills are light years ahead of Bradley. I do think his frame is problematic and I would not be comfortable drafting him in the top 4. I think the team that drafts him is going to have to be patient for him to fill out.

But an offensively advanced Shawn Bradley is a really valuable piece.
Yeah I’d counter with anyone feeling having some Bradley is their game is a shade is making a lazy assessment of Chet’s game. I was referring to primarily defensive presence, physical frame, and some passivity on offense. That’s not a shade as Bradley was an effective piece on several teams…..it’s an assessment. Both positive and negative.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
I haven't watched nearly as much of Duke as I did pre-pandemic... but I'm at the point where I think I'd take Williams over both Banchero and Griffin. Between Banchero and Griffin I'd probably lean Banchero due to size, but I can see the arguments for Griffin
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
I can understand being higher than I am on Chet for sure. The theoretical package obviously has big time value.

I do think it’s relevant that the current version of him is entirely unplayable in the NBA. He can’t guard anyone and he can’t get by anyone at the next level. This version of him won’t be able to rebound or do anything inside the 3 point line. He gets pushed around by every college team, even if he’s still doing useful things.

Can the guy put on 40 lbs and maintain/increase his athleticism? The draft is about potential and I get picking him in the lottery based on that, but honestly he feels like a huge gamble to me. His body type is so so weird and he looks pretty awkward to me already, way moreso than Durant was.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
I do think it’s relevant that the current version of him is entirely unplayable in the NBA. He can’t guard anyone and he can’t get by anyone at the next level. This version of him won’t be able to rebound or do anything inside the 3 point line. He gets pushed around by every college team, even if he’s still doing useful things.
It's really dumb to say that he can't guard anyone (He was WCC DPOY) and that we won't be able to rebound (he led the WCC in rebounding and was 19th in the NCAA) and that he would be entirely unplayable in NBA. That is really based on nothing outside of the fact that you don't like his body type and frame. It's totally understandable to be skeptical about his frame holding up in the NBA, but we don't need to be saying these kinds of baseless declarations that he doesn't have any ready-now NBA skills.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
I don’t think his body type would allow him do be a good (or frankly playable) defender or rebounder in the NBA right now. I’m sorry if that’s “dumb”. The WCC and NBA are quite different.

I’m not saying it’s impossible he will be an All-Star level NBA player eventually, but I think his supporters might be underestimating the delta between “current Chet” and “good NBA player Chet”.

I wouldn’t take him in the top 5 given who else I’ve seen. Sorry if that opinion irritates you.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
It's really dumb to say that he can't guard anyone (He was WCC DPOY) and that we won't be able to rebound (he led the WCC in rebounding and was 19th in the NCAA) and that he would be entirely unplayable in NBA. That is really based on nothing outside of the fact that you don't like his body type and frame. It's totally understandable to be skeptical about his frame holding up in the NBA, but we don't need to be saying these kinds of baseless declarations that he doesn't have any ready-now NBA skills.
He was implying Cade was a bust after his first NBA game and is already writing Jalen Green off. It's his thing.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
There is plenty of room for skepticism about Holmgren's future as an NBA player based on his thin body. I wonder if he can hold up to the pounding of the night-to-night NBA, if he will be able to avoid fouling if he is muscled around by wings attacking the basket, if he will be able to hold his position on the block. I just don't see how one can come to the conclusion that he won't be able to guard anyone; I think they are seriously underestimating his athleticism for his size.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
He was implying Cade was a bust after his first NBA game and is already writing Jalen Green off. It's his thing.
Green has had a disappointing year 1. I didn’t write him off but tend to think early results can have some meaning. Lots of variables of course.

I wouldn’t pick Cade ahead of Mobley or Barnes in a re-draft. I didn’t see Cade as a head and shoulders automatic top pick, doesn’t seem like that’s incorrect to me in retrospect. Time will tell.

It’s OK to have opinions. It’s not a “thing” lol.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Body type doesn't have a whole ton to do with rebounding, to the extent it does, height matter more than weight. Poku, who has a similar body and way less talent or athleticism than Holmgren is currently sitting on around the same rebound rate as John Collins ahead of guys like Mobley, Noel, Turner, etc.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
Body type doesn't have a whole ton to do with rebounding, to the extent it does, height matter more than weight. Poku, who has a similar body and way less talent or athleticism than Holmgren is currently sitting on around the same rebound rate as John Collins ahead of guys like Mobley, Noel, Turner, etc.
Defensive rebounding in general is a weird skill to kind of understand in the modern NBA. Between guys shooting way more threes (meaning longer rebounds), centers being forced to guard on the perimeter, more small-ball lineups, etc. I don't know how valuable being a really good defensive rebounder has in the NBA. I know most front-offices in the NBA kind of disregard individual rebounding totals (which is why Andre Drummond has been perennially available for years) and view team rebounding as more important statistic.

I was surprised to see how much rebounding Holmgren did in college, given that he shared the floor with Timme and spent a lot of time on the perimeter.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
It's really dumb to say that he can't guard anyone (He was WCC DPOY) and that we won't be able to rebound (he led the WCC in rebounding and was 19th in the NCAA) and that he would be entirely unplayable in NBA. That is really based on nothing outside of the fact that you don't like his body type and frame. It's totally understandable to be skeptical about his frame holding up in the NBA, but we don't need to be saying these kinds of baseless declarations that he doesn't have any ready-now NBA skills.
Michael Sam was the DPOY in his conference in college. That doesn’t mean his skills translate to the pro level. Adam Morrison could score on anyone in college…..that doesn’t mean his offensive skillset translates to the pro level as he couldn’t create any separation against more advanced athletes. Two examples…..there are hundreds more. College results doesn’t necessarily translate to pro success.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Defensive rebounding in general is a weird skill to kind of understand in the modern NBA. Between guys shooting way more threes (meaning longer rebounds), centers being forced to guard on the perimeter, more small-ball lineups, etc. I don't know how valuable being a really good defensive rebounder has in the NBA. I know most front-offices in the NBA kind of disregard individual rebounding totals (which is why Andre Drummond has been perennially available for years) and view team rebounding as more important statistic.

I was surprised to see how much rebounding Holmgren did in college, given that he shared the floor with Timme and spent a lot of time on the perimeter.
Great point about how the value of a defensive rebounder has decreased over the years between 3-pt shooting and analytics valuing defensive transition and avoiding getting into the bonus early more than the rare offensive rebound.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,958
Saskatoon Canada
Benedict Matthurin is going to be the best player in the class. Would have said before tonights game, but a good reminder.

Ben > Chet. Not close.
My kid played against him when he was 17. At the time I was coaching in the cebl pro league, where 4-5 guys got NBA deals eventually. Lots of G League guys in that league. It was impossible for me to compare Matthurin to any of the pros I was seeing all summer, even in their mid-20s they did not approach his athleticism.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
I’d hate to be the GM who chooses Chet over Jabari. Exposure can elevate players and it can also expose them. Paulo could have done an ACL after his first game or two and still been picked higher than he may now that we see his athletic limitations and defensive limitations/indifferences.
Banchero always looked like an offensive roleplayer to me and his arms have always soured me on his upside. It's like with Holmgren, I look at these guys and I see sixth man, but do you really want to draft someone like that with a top three pick?
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,567
Defensive rebounding in general is a weird skill to kind of understand in the modern NBA. Between guys shooting way more threes (meaning longer rebounds), centers being forced to guard on the perimeter, more small-ball lineups, etc. I don't know how valuable being a really good defensive rebounder has in the NBA. I know most front-offices in the NBA kind of disregard individual rebounding totals (which is why Andre Drummond has been perennially available for years) and view team rebounding as more important statistic.

I was surprised to see how much rebounding Holmgren did in college, given that he shared the floor with Timme and spent a lot of time on the perimeter.
Gonzaga played fast and their opponents missed a lot of shots.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,024
Michael Sam was the DPOY in his conference in college. That doesn’t mean his skills translate to the pro level. Adam Morrison could score on anyone in college…..that doesn’t mean his offensive skillset translates to the pro level as he couldn’t create any separation against more advanced athletes. Two examples…..there are hundreds more. College results don’t necessarily translate to pro success.
To your point, this is from Hollinger's latest piece for The Athletic:

Two big men were massively important in the games I attended: Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson. Tshiebwe had 30 points and 16 boards in the loss to Saint Peter’s; Dickinson had 27 and 11 in Michigan’s upset win over Tennessee after scoring 21 on just 10 shots in a first-round win over Colorado State.

Neither of these players will get more than passing interest from the pros, however – similar to how last year’s national player of the year, Luka Garza of Iowa, was just a late second-round pick in the NBA.

The point of deviation between the NBA and college is at the defensive end. If you can’t defend a spread pick-and-roll, you can’t play; in the eyes of pro evaluators, dominant but plodding college bigs like Tshiebwe and Dickinson (and Purdue’s gigantic Zach Edey, for that matter) are just too flammable defensively to justify much of an investment in draft capital.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,934
Cultural hub of the universe
To your point, this is from Hollinger's latest piece for The Athletic:

Two big men were massively important in the games I attended: Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson. Tshiebwe had 30 points and 16 boards in the loss to Saint Peter’s; Dickinson had 27 and 11 in Michigan’s upset win over Tennessee after scoring 21 on just 10 shots in a first-round win over Colorado State.

Neither of these players will get more than passing interest from the pros, however – similar to how last year’s national player of the year, Luka Garza of Iowa, was just a late second-round pick in the NBA.

The point of deviation between the NBA and college is at the defensive end. If you can’t defend a spread pick-and-roll, you can’t play; in the eyes of pro evaluators, dominant but plodding college bigs like Tshiebwe and Dickinson (and Purdue’s gigantic Zach Edey, for that matter) are just too flammable defensively to justify much of an investment in draft capital.
Those guys will be of interest to the Cs late in the 2nd though. Tshiebwe especially has the look of a guy who could have a career based on work rate.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Those guys will be of interest to the Cs late in the 2nd though. Tshiebwe especially has the look of a guy who could have a career based on work rate.
I can’t imagine the Celtics having any interest in Dickinson. He’s the antithesis of everything we are looking for in Ime’s system.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,406
around the way
I don't see any way that Brad doesn't go straight lottery ticket, high ceiling with the second rounder. Wouldn't complain if he bought one to stash too.

This team has a bunch of competent guys. Be nice to have another Begarin to wish on.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I don't see any way that Brad doesn't go straight lottery ticket, high ceiling with the second rounder. Wouldn't complain if he bought one to stash too.

This team has a bunch of competent guys. Be nice to have another Begarin to wish on.
I think Brad will look for a guy who specifically fits Ime’s unique system. It’s kinda weird in that I’ll be shocked if he took a low-ceiling guy even though someone who can contribute right away would be what a contender would typically look for……but your traditional low ceiling guy wouldn’t be a fit for what we do. Butler from FSU would be an interesting flier if he comes out and is around. So would that wing they have I can’t think of his name right now but he may be a better pro than college player.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,406
around the way
I think Brad will look for a guy who specifically fits Ime’s unique system. It’s kinda weird in that I’ll be shocked if he took a low-ceiling guy even though someone who can contribute right away would be what a contender would typically look for……but your traditional low ceiling guy wouldn’t be a fit for what we do. Butler from FSU would be an interesting flier if he comes out and is around. So would that wing they have I can’t think of his name right now but he may be a better pro than college player.
I think that all of the interesting wings will be gone before he picks, unless he buys a much better pick. If a kid like Butler is still around, that's definitely a high upside pick that fits. I wouldn't be surprised if it's one of the international combo guards, although they might go too high too (and aren't ready).
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I'm still early process, but here's where I'm at this moment...

Jabari
Chet

Shaedon
Ivey
Griffin

Duren
Paolo
Davis
Mathurin
Eason
Murray

Kendall
TyTy
Wesley
Hardy
Baldwin

Williams
Sochan
Dyson
Chandler
Kessler
Beauchamp

Keels
Montero
Houstan
Agbaji
 
Last edited:

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
I think that JSJ is likely the best player from this pool, but there’s no way he’s a tier above the competition. Much less the famine survivor. I know Pokusevski is thin, but he’s obese compared to Holmgren.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I think that JSJ is likely the best player from this pool, but there’s no way he’s a tier above the competition. Much less the famine survivor. I know Pokusevski is thin, but he’s obese compared to Holmgren.
Yeah I haven’t done all the work but I don’t have anyone close to Jabari at #1.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I think that JSJ is likely the best player from this pool, but there’s no way he’s a tier above the competition. Much less the famine survivor. I know Pokusevski is thin, but he’s obese compared to Holmgren.
CHET is just such a fun basketball player who really gets basketball. I think his floor is a useful 25 minute guy on a playoff team.

Yeah, he's thin af, but he's smart enough to work around it.

I just see way too many holes in everyone else's games. I mean my 3rd guy has never even played college basketball.

Tiers are always going to be kind of arbitrary in this stuff, though.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Mostly just posted my early thoughts to start a conversation.

Can't say I was expecting the 1st 2 comments to be about Chet 2 & not Paolo 7, though.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I just see way too many holes in everyone else's games. I mean my 3rd guy has never even played college basketball.
That’s how it is in todays game. The high upside guys are most certainly going to have holes bc you aren’t good to find long, athletic freaks to be developed as basketball players at 18-19. Think of the flaws that Durant, Embiid, Giannis, Morant, Adebayo, etc had in their games at that age? The draft is about future projection not about current production.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
That’s how it is in todays game. The high upside guys are most certainly going to have holes bc you aren’t good to find long, athletic freaks to be developed as basketball players at 18-19. Think of the flaws that Durant, Embiid, Giannis, Morant, Adebayo, etc had in their games at that age? The draft is about future projection not about current production.
I just don't see a lot of guys I would consider to have the upside to overcome their limitations. In fact, lack of upside is one of the primary holes in a lot of them.

& if we're going true upside, I don't think anyone's is higher than Chet because no one else has the 2-way potential to be semi-dominant.

Was just listening to Simmons/Russillo podcast & they have some odd obsession with Sochan so I might have to look at him more. Seemed unathletic & mechanical to me, though on brief review.

Who do you see as guys with enough upside to draft over Chet?
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,406
around the way
Problem isn't just upside though. If you have a top 5 pick and think that Chet's floor is "gets broken in half", then you might not want to fuck that one up.

Just about all of the top prospects have flaws. You're assessing risk too, not just ceiling.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
There are a ton of freakish athletes projected at the top half of the 1st round. Off top of my head….Ivey, Duren, and Sharpe have greater upside than Chet imo as well as others later in the round (who also have much lower floors) but I understand how volatile different people may view his skillset translating. He’s unique for sure. I’m not a huge fan not not willing to put my Kidd-Gilchrist or Dragan Bender tag on him yet. It may come as I lean that way but I think he’ll be a decent serviceable pro.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
Problem isn't just upside though. If you have a top 5 pick and think that Chet's floor is "gets broken in half", then you might not want to fuck that one up.

Just about all of the top prospects have flaws. You're assessing risk too, not just ceiling.
Sure. I think Chet's floor & ceiling are both high. Barring health stuff, & I don't think he's been particularly injured in the past.

& if I have a top 5 pick I want to take a swing on a franchise altering player - in the world where I'm creating a big board & don't have some perverse financial incentive for Kings-style mediocrity.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,292
There are a ton of freakish athletes projected at the top half of the 1st round. Off top of my head….Ivey, Duren, and Sharpe have greater upside than Chet imo as well as others later in the round (who also have much lower floors) but I understand how volatile different people may view his skillset translating. He’s unique for sure. I’m not a huge fan not not willing to put my Kidd-Gilchrist or Dragan Bender tag on him yet. It may come as I lean that way but I think he’ll be a decent serviceable pro.
I think I'm much higher than consensus on both Duren & Sharpe & about average to slightly higher on Ivey.

Ivey & Sharpe don't have the defensive upside Chet does, & Duren doesn't have the offensive upside, though.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I think I'm much higher than consensus on both Duren & Sharpe & about average to slightly higher on Ivey.

Ivey & Sharpe don't have the defensive upside Chet does, & Duren doesn't have the offensive upside, though.
I feel strongly that Ivey will end up a much much better defender than Chet. It isn’t only about weight but his lower base is very week almost like a Bol Bol weak.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,406
around the way
Sure. I think Chet's floor & ceiling are both high. Barring health stuff, & I don't think he's been particularly injured in the past.

& if I have a top 5 pick I want to take a swing on a franchise altering player - in the world where I'm creating a big board & don't have some perverse financial incentive for Kings-style mediocrity.
I think that we maybe have different estimates of Chet's floor, not a different idea about taking safe picks in the top 5.

Good conversation though. Chet is definitely polarizing. Fwiw, I like him a lot better than Bender. He has a BBIQ and offensive touch. I think that he possibly will be unplayable on defense though.