2022 NBA Draft: The Life of Paolo

[JM3]

I feel strongly that Ivey will end up a much much better defender than Chet. It isn’t only about weight but his lower base is very week almost like a Bol Bol weak.

Jaden Ivey could be a decent to very good smaller wing defender due to his athleticism, but he hasn't really done it.

Chet won 4 high school state titles & has played every game this year. If you do a Google search for injuries you get a left eyebrow contusion...& Bol Bol's ankle.

He's averaging 3.7 blocks per game (4th in CBB), has a very similar steals % to Ivey, is 2nd in CBB in DWS, 2nd in defensive box +/-, & was 1st in defensive rating (4 points better than anyone else). In fact, his D-Rating is better than anyone since KAT in '14-'15.

I don't think it's a controversial take at all to say he has been the best defensive player in college basketball this year. Yes, that doesn't necessarily translate to the pros, but it's an easier projection than projecting a guy who was mostly a disinterested wing defender into being a better defensive player in the pros.

 

[Swedgin]

I think that we maybe have different estimates of Chet's floor, not a different idea about taking safe picks in the top 5.

Good conversation though. Chet is definitely polarizing. Fwiw, I like him a lot better than Bender. He has a BBIQ and offensive touch. I think that he possibly will be unplayable on defense though.

Certainly polarizing here and Reddit. Not as much among the draft guys in the media. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, Smitz at ESPN and the Ringer collective all have him #1.

 

[JM3]

I think that we maybe have different estimates of Chet's floor, not a different idea about taking safe picks in the top 5.

Good conversation though. Chet is definitely polarizing. Fwiw, I like him a lot better than Bender. He has a BBIQ and offensive touch. I think that he possibly will be unplayable on defense though.

That's quite likely. I don't think Bender is a reasonable comp for tons of reasons, including lack of proof of concept - yes, he was playing in a good league, but he played 13 minutes per game & lacked athleticism.

& yeah, now I'm just talking myself into CHET lol. There is a reason he's still heavily projected #1, though.

 

[BigSoxFan]

That's quite likely. I don't think Bender is a reasonable comp for tons of reasons, including lack of proof of concept - yes, he was playing in a good league, but he played 13 minutes per game & lacked athleticism.

& yeah, now I'm just talking myself into CHET lol. There is a reason he's still heavily projected #1, though.

Whether he sucks or is a star is still TBD but I am very interested in watching him to find out. I am ultimately bearing on Chet as an impact guy but I'm also very intrigued by seeing how he translates and how much, if any, pro teams can beef him up.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Certainly polarizing here and Reddit. Not as much among the draft guys in the media. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, Smitz at ESPN and the Ringer collective all have him #1.

Well that settles it then.

 

[Euclis20]

I can understand being higher than I am on Chet for sure. The theoretical package obviously has big time value.

I do think it’s relevant that the current version of him is entirely unplayable in the NBA. He can’t guard anyone and he can’t get by anyone at the next level. This version of him won’t be able to rebound or do anything inside the 3 point line. He gets pushed around by every college team, even if he’s still doing useful things.

Can the guy put on 40 lbs and maintain/increase his athleticism? The draft is about potential and I get picking him in the lottery based on that, but honestly he feels like a huge gamble to me. His body type is so so weird and he looks pretty awkward to me already, way moreso than Durant was.

I agree that his size can't be compared to KD. I think a lot of people (not necessarily here) are overstating Durant's skinniness (apparently that's a word) when he was drafted. He was listed at 6'9 215 at Texas, and there was a report he started his rookie season weighing 212 pounds. That's pretty light for his size, but not overwhelmingly so. He's currently listed at 6'10 240, and he still looks on the skinny side- some people just carry weight differently. Regardless of his actual weight, he was quick enough to play shooting guard as a rookie without embarrassing himself, and there's no way that Holmgren can play smaller guys like that. If he's completely unplayable at his current height/weight, I don't understand how that isn't a serious problem for a top pick.

 

[Swedgin]

Well that settles it then.

Was not suggesting that it does, just trying to bring some context - especially given the suggestion that Chet does not just have some flaws, but will be "unplayable." The opinion of "experts" should never be the end of the discussion, but given that is what they do for a living it should at least be part of it. Vecenie in particular has written extensively and thoughtfully on Chet. His coverage is well worth the cost of a subscription to the Athletic.

 

[JM3]

Certainly polarizing here and Reddit. Not as much among the draft guys in the media. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, Smitz at ESPN and the Ringer collective all have him #1.

When I saw this I created a chart of free, recent, big boards I found on quick search. So doesn't include Athletic/ESPN. I'll post it in a bit.

 

[JM3]

Here's the chart. 9 publicly available rankings sites. My rankings are just the 26 guys I looked at & aren't included in the consensus ranks. This will give me some ideas on other guys to look like when I dive in. It's just the top 30 from each site because some were only top 30s. 30 points for a 1st down to 1 for a 30.

Rank	Player	Ringer	DraftRoom	Tankathon	NBAdraft.net	CBSSports	SI	Hoops Prospects	BR	247 Sports	Points	Me
1	Chet Holmgren	1	1	1	3	2	3	2	1	1	264	2
2	Jabari Smith Jr.	2	2	2	2	3	1	1	2	2	262	1
3	Jaden Ivey	4	3	4	1	1	4	3	3	4	252	4
4	Paolo Banchero	3	5	3	4	4	2	4	4	3	247	7
5	AJ Griffin	6	6	5	6	7	10	6	5	14	214	5
6	Johnny Davis	10	9	8	8	5	5	9	6	7	212	8
7	Keegan Murray	5	7	6	10	11	6	12	8	8	206	11
8	Bennedict Mathurin	13	13	10	5	10	9	5	10	11	193	9
9	Shaedon Sharpe	7	4	7	14	N/A	7	7	7	5	190	3
10	Jalen Duren	8	8	13	15	8	15	8	11	6	187	6
11	TyTy Washington Jr.	14	12	11	11	6	22	13	9	12	169	13
12	Dyson Daniels	11	15	15	29	12	8	10	25	9	145	19
13	Ochai Agbaji	17	N/A	27	9	9	16	11	15	10	134	26
14	Jeremy Sochan	9	10	17	23	18	11	22	21	19	129	18
15	Jaden Hardy	12	18	24	12	20	28	19	19	13	114	15
16	Kendall Brown	21	26	12	N/A	14	12	15	14	22	112	12
17	Tari Eason	15	16	9	N/A	29	24	25	12	15	103	10
18	Mark Williams	24	20	14	19	13	20	26	26	17	100	17
19	E.J. Liddell	18	30	23	N/A	N/A	13	23	24	20	97
20	Walker Kessler	19	19	18	25	N/A	17	17	16	21	96	21
21	MarJon Beauchamp	23	28	16	13	24	25	27	13	18	92	22
22T	Blake Wesley	16	14	N/A	17	16	14	N/A	N/A	27	82	14
22T	Patrick Baldwin Jr.	26	N/A	25	27	15	18	21	18	16	82	16
24	Nikola Jovic	25	21	20	20	30	N/A	20	22	23	67
25	Malaki Branham	20	11	N/A	7	27	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	64
26	Jean Montero	27	N/A	21	N/A	22	N/A	16	17	29	54	24
27	Kennedy Chandler	N/A	N/A	19	21	25	N/A	14	N/A	30	46	20
28	Wendell Moore Jr.	29	N/A	22	18	N/A	19	24	N/A	N/A	43
29	Max Christie	N/A	27	N/A	16	17	27	30	27	N/A	42
30	JD Davison	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	26	N/A	18	28	25	27
31	Trevor Keels	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	21	23	28	N/A	28	24	23
32	Bryce McGowens	N/A	22	N/A	28	N/A	N/A	N/A	30	24	20
33	Christian Braun	28	N/A	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	20	N/A	19
34	Harrison Ingram	N/A	29	N/A	N/A	23	N/A	N/A	23	N/A	18
35	Moussa Diabate	N/A	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	29	N/A	N/A	16
36	Christian Koloko	22	N/A	28	30	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	13
37	Caleb Houstan	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	12	25
38	Josh Minott	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	10
39	Orlando Robinson	N/A	N/A	N/A	22	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	9
40	John Butler	N/A	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	8
41T	Arthur Kaluma	N/A	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
41T	Trayce Jackson-Davis	N/A	N/A	N/A	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
43	Matthew Cleveland	N/A	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	6
44T	Julian Strawther	N/A	N/A	N/A	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
44T	Jaime Jaquez Jr.	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	28	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
44T	Justin Lewis	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	26	5
47	David Roddy	30	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	29	N/A	3
48	Ismael Kamagate	N/A	N/A	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
49T	Ousmane Dieng	N/A	N/A	30	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
49T	Alondes Williams	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	30	N/A	N/A	N/A	1

 

[Jimbodandy]

Was not suggesting that it does, just trying to bring some context - especially given the suggestion that Chet does not just have some flaws, but will be "unplayable." The opinion of "experts" should never be the end of the discussion, but given that is what they do for a living it should at least be part of it. Vecenie in particular has written extensively and thoughtfully on Chet. His coverage is well worth the cost of a subscription to the Athletic.

Thanks. This was another good nudge to get the Athletic. Fucking inertia.

When I saw this I created a chart of free, recent, big boards I found on quick search. So doesn't include Athletic/ESPN. I'll post it in a bit.

Thanks for the chart.

 

[JM3]

Thanks for the chart.

No problem. I think it was like my 3rd ever SOSH post from a computer. Felt weird. Might update it down the road with more details (ages, colleges, height, wingspan etc.), but we'll see if this is just a 1-day phase for me or the start of a bigger problem.

 

[Ale Xander]

Am I crazy to think that Griffin will be a better pro than Banchero?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Am I crazy to think that Griffin will be a better pro than Banchero?

Not at all. His ceiling is much higher. The more I see of Chet against better competiton the quicker he drops on my board. He very well may be full-Bender for me by draft night.

 

[Auger34]

Not at all. His ceiling is much higher. The more I see of Chet against better competiton the quicker he drops on my board. He very well may be full-Bender for me by draft night.

That’s funny because I feel the same way about Banchero. His game will definitely improve with NBA spacing but man, I wouldn’t be excited spending a top 5 pick on him. Seems to have mediocre athleticism, mediocre shot and a lot of indecisiveness

 

[chilidawg]

Good draft to not have a 1st rounder. Great draft to not have a lottery pick.

 

[radsoxfan]

Not at all. His ceiling is much higher. The more I see of Chet against better competiton the quicker he drops on my board. He very well may be full-Bender for me by draft night.

Shhh....

If you question Chet's NBA future, the pseudo-NBA scouts will call you "dumb".

Don't worry about the fact that he is light years from even being playable the NBA. He gets blocks and rebounds in the WCC.... top pick material apparently.

 

[Jakarta]

That’s funny because I feel the same way about Banchero. His game will definitely improve with NBA spacing but man, I wouldn’t be excited spending a top 5 pick on him. Seems to have mediocre athleticism, mediocre shot and a lot of indecisiveness

Isn’t that sort of a similar to what people said about JT before the draft. Not a top athlete, poor/inconsistent shooter from 3, poor playmaker/too much iso.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/jayson-tatum/

Obviously JT has proved a lot of those concerns wrong, particularly all the defensive concerns. But without having watched much Duke at all, is Paolo a clear notch or 2 below where JT was at Duke?

 

[chilidawg]

You could do much worse than Bryson Williams as a late 2nd.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Isn’t that sort of a similar to what people said about JT before the draft. Not a top athlete, poor/inconsistent shooter from 3, poor playmaker/too much iso.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/jayson-tatum/

Obviously JT has proved a lot of those concerns wrong, particularly all the defensive concerns. But without having watched much Duke at all, is Paolo a clear notch or 2 below where JT was at Duke?

There were questions about Tatum's athleticism, much like Luka and Pierce (back in the day), because his game is slithery and wasn't very explosive back then. There were also questions about his shooting, which was always a stupid criticism.

 

[Ale Xander]

Mathurin with a horrible game

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There were questions about Tatum's athleticism, much like Luka and Pierce (back in the day), because his game is slithery and wasn't very explosive back then. There were also questions about his shooting, which was always a stupid criticism.

The difference was that Tatum was still physically frail at Duke so he had the physical growth upside of what he would eventually become. Banchero is already physicallly developed so he doesn’t possess that same physical upside and his game is a little mechanical which further limits his growth. I think he’s a can’t miss contributor pretty much out of the gate but his window seems pretty narrow for what he’s going to be from my seat. Rotation player floor to 3rd option ceiling covers a huge part of his pie.

 

[radsoxfan]

Rotation player floor to 3rd option ceiling covers a huge part of his pie.

Very good game from Paolo, but agree he's looking mostly like a 3rd banana. Useful player and worth a lotto pick but I have a hard time seeing the elite upside.

Not a good game for Mathurin tonight... some athletic plays but never got into the flow of the game. Chet get a raw deal from the refs, some of those calls were embarrassing.

Overall I don't change my opinion much (if at all) based on any single game. Still think Mathurin will be a great pro and see his upside as high as anyone in the draft. I hope Chet turns into a good pro but I have to squint pretty hard to see it working out.

 

[tims4wins]

Agree on Paolo. And yes, he is clearly a notch below what Tatum was at Duke. Go back and watch Tatum in the ACC Tournament when Duke won 4 games in 4 days to win the title. You could see the superstar.

 

[snowmanny]

Agree on Paolo. And yes, he is clearly a notch below what Tatum was at Duke. Go back and watch Tatum in the ACC Tournament when Duke won 4 games in 4 days to win the title. You could see the superstar.

He looked like Bernard King to me.

I confess I didn’t really expect that to be his floor though

 

[Auger34]

Very good game from Paolo, but agree he's looking mostly like a 3rd banana. Useful player and worth a lotto pick but I have a hard time seeing the elite upside.

Not a good game for Mathurin tonight... some athletic plays but never got into the flow of the game. Chet get a raw deal from the refs, some of those calls were embarrassing.

Overall I don't change my opinion much (if at all) based on any single game. Still think Mathurin will be a great pro and see his upside as high as anyone in the draft. I hope Chet turns into a good pro but I have to squint pretty hard to see it working out.

He ended up having a great game but the issue is if Paolo’s ceiling is a good 3rd option (which I think is pretty fair), his game doesn’t really translate well to being a 3rd option.

He’s not great off ball and he’s a pretty mediocre shooter. Pretty much all of his high end skills and qualities are unlocked when he has the ball.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

He ended up having a great game but the issue is if Paolo’s ceiling is a good 3rd option (which I think is pretty fair), his game doesn’t really translate well to being a 3rd option.

He’s not great off ball and he’s a pretty mediocre shooter. Pretty much all of his high end skills and qualities are unlocked when he has the ball.

I see a lot of pre-ACL Jabari in his game which was a pretty good NBA player.

 

[benhogan]

https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/3/25/22996189/a-scouts-view-yam-madar-and-juhann-begarin-boston-celtics

Sounds like Madar and Begarin will need another year overseas which is fine.

No reason to start their clocks at the end of the bench or on a 2-way

 

[tims4wins]

I see a lot of pre-ACL Jabari in his game which was a pretty good NBA player.

I like the Jabari comp. Neither Paolo nor Jabari had Tatum’s athleticism.

 

[Ale Xander]

He looks like a better version of Antonio Lang than Parker to me.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

He looks like a better version of Antonio Lang than Parker to me.

I don’t see their similarities at all. Antonio Lang had zero offensive games I think he avg 5 ppg until his senior year. Banchero was 1st Team All-ACC as a freshman and second only to Wake’s Williams in Points.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1516153738548985863

 

[BigSoxFan]

View: https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1516153738548985863

Ha, even when we no longer own the pick, we still lose the tiebreakers.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1532104710563536897?s=21&t=ZoSHkDBaBUuEXlDQ2k6Xvw

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

So the Nets are gambling that the 76ers will be worse next season, with Harden for the full year?

 

[BigSoxFan]

So the Nets are gambling that the 76ers will be worse next season, with Harden for the full year?

I’m thinking it’s probably more a reflection of their views on the 2022 draft pool, which is pretty underwhelming to me

 

[djbayko]

I’m thinking it’s probably more a reflection of their views on the 2022 draft pool, which is pretty underwhelming to me

Yes. That + a sprinkle of "anything can happen", especially with a historically injury-prone Embiid. They can't end up in a much worse position, even if they get a lower slot next year.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yes. That + a sprinkle of "anything can happen", especially with a historically injury-prone Embiid.

Yup, not the worst gamble, especially if the 2023 draft looks better

 

[the moops]

And I think you gotta take the chance that they implode. If it ends up being the 26th or even 30th pick next year as opposed to the 23rd this year, it's a pretty big meh. But if somehow it is a lottery pick or even a late teens and you instead chose to play safe and take the 23rd this year, well, that is a pretty bad play.

 

[nighthob]

So the Nets are gambling that the 76ers will be worse next season, with Harden for the full year?

No, just that next year's pool is a lot better than this year's.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I’m thinking it’s probably more a reflection of their views on the 2022 draft pool, which is pretty underwhelming to me

I'm sure this is right, but the Harden theory is a lot more fun

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I’m thinking it’s probably more a reflection of their views on the 2022 draft pool, which is pretty underwhelming to me

It’s the most obvious reason that they don’t want to have a multi-year GTD contract sitting on the end of their bench while paying a tax on it? Veteran teams at the end of the 1st round move their pick for this reason all the time.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It’s the most obvious reason that they don’t want to have a multi-year GTD contract sitting on the end of their bench while paying a tax on it? Veteran teams at the end of the 1st round move their pick for this reason all the time.

A team like the Nets is probably more concerned about the talent coming in/trade value of the pick than the tax. But it's also possible there are multiple considerations at play here.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

A team like the Nets is probably more concerned about the talent coming in/trade value of the pick than the tax. But it's also possible there are multiple considerations at play here.

I should have included the entire investment time, energy and resources to be in developmental mode of a 1st round pick. This isn’t where they are right now so if given the choice, which they had, I’m guessing it isn’t something they wanted to deal with right now but rather push it back to when it may be more beneficial.

 

[Mooch]

So I'm hoping that David Roddy from CSU falls into the late 2nd round for the Celtics.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKTL9AqToyg

 

[Ale Xander]

What do people think about Nembhard at 53 if they can trade White or Smart?
Not a turnover machine, unselfish, has range, can defend ok, 6-5

 

[Just a bit outside]

What do people think about Nembhard at 53 if they can trade White or Smart?
Not a turnover machine, unselfish, has range, can defend ok, 6-5

Your not trading Smart or White to open a spot for the 53rd pick. If he can play take him but don’t trade a top 7 player on the team. This is crazy talk.

 

[Ale Xander]

Your not trading Smart or White to open a spot for the 53rd pick. If he can play take him but don’t trade a top 7 player on the team. This is crazy talk.

Yes
You trade after (if it makes sense)

 

[nighthob]

What do people think about Nembhard at 53 if they can trade White or Smart?
Not a turnover machine, unselfish, has range, can defend ok, 6-5

Are they getting back a starting guard in the trade? Because Nembhard is years from being a rotational player (if ever).

 

[JM3]

Nembhard will be 23 in January, is not athletic, kinda rexy, low volume scorer...& will probably be drafted like 45 anyway.

 

[nighthob]

Two guys I'm hoping that Boston's looking at as Portland filler in the short term (in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle) are Colorado's Jabari Walker and the Overtime League's Dominick Barlow. Both guys are really raw. But they both have great physicals with projection remaining. Walker's 6'8" with a +3 wingspan and around 215, and looks like he could play at 20-25lbs over that without losing any athleticism.

Barlow is, allegedly, 6'9"-6'10" 220 with a +5/+6 wingspan. What little tape I can find of him makes him look like a physical specimen. But like Canadian Leonard Miller he might also be two years away from being two years away (@reggiecleveland you're our Canadian hoops guru, can you offer us some insight on Miller?). But if the measurements are legit, you can't teach 6'9" 220 with that sort of length, strength, and athleticism.

EDIT: I should add on Barlow that the form on his jumper isn't bad, per se. But the release is really slow (like Horford v2015 slow) and he has a slight hitch due to timing issues. Maybe Hanlen can teach him to play?