2022 NBA Draft: The Life of Paolo

JM3

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Pretty sure Dom B will be long gone, too.

Old friend Ryan Gomes was his coach. He's 19 & got much better throughout the year. Definitely an interesting prospect.
 

JM3

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Walker strikes me as a guy with a AAAA ceiling if that makes sense. Athletic & crafty enough against lesser competition but with no singular skill, ability or agility to allow him to be a useful NBA player.
 

JM3

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Peyton Watson is another fun one who will probably be gone.
 

nighthob

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Pretty sure Dom B will be long gone, too.

Old friend Ryan Gomes was his coach. He's 19 & got much better throughout the year. Definitely an interesting prospect.
It’s not like there aren’t teams with too many draft picks that will be open to selling their second rounders because you can’t develop ten players at once.
 

Kliq

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Barlow couldn't play games during the day, is roughly 2,000 years old, and would probably have a big issue with any devoted Christians in the Celtics locker room. I think that stuff kind of matters when you are picking up a guy as a late-round flier.
 

Jimbodandy

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It’s not like there aren’t teams with too many draft picks that will be open to selling their second rounders because you can’t develop ten players at once.
I'm hoping that PBS finds someone who's willing to deal one in the top half. There are a decent number of long-term project guys with the right bodies. Probably not a hell of a lot of difference between the guys available at 40 and 25 imo.
 

nighthob

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Tankathon has Barlow going to the C's at 53. Nembhard, Roddy and Watson are all near the top of the 2nd. Walker isn't even in their mock. Who knows.

I like the look of this guy if we're thinking draft and stash: https://www.tankathon.com/players/matteo-spagnolo
Well, let’s hope that Tankathon’s right, then. Walker is really raw. In a way I do sort of hope that he goes undrafted and Boston inks him to a two way to play in Portland for the foreseeable future to see if they can graft some skills onto that frame and athleticism.

Guys like Nembhard and Roddy probably have more appeal to bad teams with multiple picks because they don’t need a lot of development (they’re already pretty much what they’re going to be). So if that leads to Barlow making it to #53 that’s a great thing, because Barlow has a great size/length/athleticism package.
 

JM3

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It's an oddly terrible year for international players.
 

JM3

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I think we've derailed the Celtics off-season thread enough with this lol

I’ll agree that Murray’s not likely to reach his 1% projection. But even the ten percent one’s a lot better than Bey’s 1% projection. Bey could be a James Posey type. Murray’s upside is a lot more along the lines of above average starter.
I can't think of really good comps for Murray. Like a shorter-armed Otto Porter?

ETA - that's pretty funny, I went on the internet to find other people's comps & the 1st 2 I saw were Otto & MPJ (don't really agree with that one, though).

ETA#2 - next site I found listed Tobias Harris, Danny Granger, TJ Warren, Marvin Williams & Rudy Gay.
 

nighthob

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Granger might be a decent comp, so long as everyone grants that Murray's the crack whore's Granger (Danny was really good before the back derailed him). Warren was actually the guy that I came up with when I racked my brains for a comparison. Warren probably had more upside, but obviously the injury history has resulted in a marginal career.
 

jmanny24

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I came to ask about a couple of guys but saw there was already a discussion on Barlow so I'll ask about the other. What do you guys think about Alondes Williams as a potential young PG?
 

ekim colorwaterpit

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I came to ask about a couple of guys but saw there was already a discussion on Barlow so I'll ask about the other. What do you guys think about Alondes Williams as a potential young PG?
I'm a huge Wake fan and I love Alondes, but man at times he can be an absolute turnover machine. Some of that was because he was learning to be a playmaker this year and wake wasn't exactly loaded so he sometimes had to force things.
 

nighthob

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He’ll be a solid bench combo guard long term. But right now he’s a streaky shooter that makes a lot of turnovers.
 

Cellar-Door

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unless we trade up, I'd be a little surprised if we draft anyone who makes the roster at 53.

We have 14 guys under contract right now.
10 of those guys are basically locks.
My early guess is they pick up Hauser, and that the other 3 (Morgan, Fitts, Stauskas) are fillers.
They have the draft rights of 2 players drafted higher than 53 the last 2 years (Madar, Begarin)
They also likely add at least 2 vets via MLE or use of the TPE, maybe both.

#53 is either going to Maine or staying overseas would be my guess.
 

JM3

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Alondes is also 23 & a pretty bad defender & a 27% 3p shooter. No thx.
 

nighthob

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unless we trade up, I'd be a little surprised if we draft anyone who makes the roster at 53.

We have 14 guys under contract right now.
10 of those guys are basically locks.
My early guess is they pick up Hauser, and that the other 3 (Morgan, Fitts, Stauskas) are fillers.
They have the draft rights of 2 players drafted higher than 53 the last 2 years (Madar, Begarin)
They also likely add at least 2 vets via MLE or use of the TPE, maybe both.

#53 is either going to Maine or staying overseas would be my guess.
In fairness one of those guys drafted higher than #53 is unlikely to ever see an NBA court (to this day I don’t understand the Madar pick). In general I agree, though. They should be looking at one of the physical specimens in severe need of skills and letting them brew in Maine for a couple of years. The overseas market is so bad this year that they should just sell the pick for cash rather than wasting it on a draft & wave goodbye.
 

Cellar-Door

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In fairness one of those guys drafted higher than #53 is unlikely to ever see an NBA court (to this day I don’t understand the Madar pick). In general I agree, though. They should be looking at one of the physical specimens in severe need of skills and letting them brew in Maine for a couple of years. The overseas market is so bad this year that they should just sell the pick for cash rather than wasting it on a draft & wave goodbye.
Oh I doubt either comes over, and that was kind of the point, that's the type of player you get in the 40s, in the 50s it's even less likely you hit on a roster player for a playoff team, it's 2 way or Euro.
Kamagate might be there at 53, he's probably the only guy worth taking for overseas guys
 

pjheff

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In fairness one of those guys drafted higher than #53 is unlikely to ever see an NBA court (to this day I don’t understand the Madar pick). In general I agree, though. They should be looking at one of the physical specimens in severe need of skills and letting them brew in Maine for a couple of years. The overseas market is so bad this year that they should just sell the pick for cash rather than wasting it on a draft & wave goodbye.
Are there any Avery Bradley McDonald’s All-Americans who have pedigree but might slip to #53?
 

HomeRunBaker

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So what are we hearing so far? Here are some rumors/insights from prominent handicappers with draft connections or following people who have draft connections.

* Chet refusing to take the league medicals raising red flags on his health with some prominent draft players questioning if he can pass a Marfan Syndrome test.

* Jabari Smith met with Orlando and it supposedly went poorly.

* Magic suspiciously tight lipped on the Paolo workout raising suspicions that he may be their guy.

* Sacramento reportedly loves Keegan Murray at 4.

* More than one team has medically red-flagged Duke’s AJ Griffin.

* Shaedon Sharpe giving off pre-ACL Jabari Parker vibes of a guy who wants to pay his posse with his offensive numbers more than he wants to play defense.

* OKC loves Ivey at 2 more than Smith if latter Is available.

* Blake Wesley moving up.

* Jaden Hardy and Mark Williams slipping.
 
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Burkharts Uppercut

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Sam Vecenie's latest draft notes include speculation that there will be a lot of trade movement in the 30's, with team prioritizing 2-way and draft and stash players over higher upside players. I would expect the C's to be in this boat too, but perhaps it won't be as prohibitive to trade up this year, or someone with upside could slide.

"Don’t be surprised to see a number of expected draft picks end up unselected. Why? Per sources on the agency side, teams have been calling about getting players on two-way contracts on picks all the way up in the 30s. Don’t be surprised to see a number of players picked later on who are willing to accept two-way contracts as opposed to maybe higher-upside types."

If the C's are just sticking at 53, any opinions on Dereon Seabron? He's projected to be available where the C's are drafting in most mocks. The knocks are that he's old, doesn't shoot, isn't a great defender, but he's got good size, played well at the combine, and gets in the paint. Hollinger thinks he's underrated and has him at 32 in his rankings.

"the ability to get to the rim on your own steam in the halfcourt is a pretty important skill, and Seabron has it. His college tape is him getting to the cup with either hand and using long strides to finish at the rim, over and over and over again, and he did the same thing at the combine. His team will need to trust putting the ball in his hands because he’s not spacing the floor, but he can be a plus creator if he develops any kind of shot at all."
 

nighthob

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Hope that someone else picks him and leaves a useful player on the board so that Boston can land someone with upside later on. Seabron's a classic G League All Star that's a Break Glass in Case of Emergency player on the pro level. He's 6'5" 180 with slightly above average athleticism and a mediocre shooter to go with the poor D. Hard pass. There are a lot of teams with multiple selections, and the wrong draft for that to be the case. If this means that a bunch of Draft and wave goodbye players get picked and Boston can pick a high upside guy like Dom Barlow then good for Boston.

The first guy who came to mind was Emoni Bates but I don’t know if he’s draft eligible this year or next.
January '04 birth date, so he's 2023 draft eligible. I expect him to hide until then. Maybe hit the Overtime League? He's that classic Stopped growing at age 16 player. Like OJ Mayo and Lance Stephenson before him. Got better Under 16 results than they did getting close to 6'8", but didn't get very long and stopped progressing athletically. If he bears down and focuses on becoming a useful NBA player he has the tools to be one, though.

So what are we hearing so far? Here are some rumors/insights from prominent handicappers with draft connections or following people who have draft connections.

* Chet refusing to take the league medicals raising red flags on his health with some prominent draft players questioning if he can pass a Marfan Syndrome test.
I just assumed that since Butler weighed in at 180, and he looks fat next to Holmgren, that Holmgren's real weight might be closer to 165.

* Jabari Smith met with Orlando and it supposedly went poorly.
* Magic suspiciously tight lipped on the Paolo workout raising suspicions that he may be their guy.
* OKC loves Ivey at 2 more than Smith if latter Is available.
I hope all three of those are true, I'd like Houston to end up with Smith.

* More than one team has medically red-flagged Duke’s AJ Griffin.
The injuries have been mounting up for AJ. He seems destined to be a Spur.
 

PedroKsBambino

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So what are we hearing so far? Here are some rumors/insights from prominent handicappers with draft connections or following people who have draft connections.

* Chet refusing to take the league medicals raising red flags on his health with some prominent draft players questioning if he can pass a Marfan Syndrome test.

* Jabari Smith met with Orlando and it supposedly went poorly.

* Magic suspiciously tight lipped on the Paolo workout raising suspicions that he may be their guy.

* Sacramento reportedly loves Keegan Murray at 4.

* More than one team has medically red-flagged Duke’s AJ Griffin.

* Shaedon Sharpe giving off pre-ACL Jabari Parker vibes of a guy who wants to pay his posse with his offensive numbers more than he wants to play defense.

* OKC loves Ivey at 2 more than Smith if latter Is available.

* Blake Wesley moving up.

* Jaden Hardy and Mark Williams slipping.
Great stuff---thanks!

I am a Banchero guy at number one---he seems like a reasonable bet to be a 22-25 point a game scorer with plus passing. not sure the rest of the package is great, but that's still an impact guy. I am not sure what Smith is, and get the upside potential. But is he really a third guy on a good team kind of profile (e.g. a Wiggins?) Nothing wrong wtih that but not the target at 1.

I have zero idea what to make of Holmgren. I don't worry about the body size so much as whether the fit is realistic with most rosters (e.g. you need another big) and the talent and flexibility in how he plays is pretty enticing. I couldn't blame anyone for taking him or passing on him; OKC, with Poku already there, seems like a really bad fit though.

I love Sharpe's game, but not playing in second half of year would be a major red flag for me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I have zero idea what to make of Holmgren. I don't worry about the body size so much as whether the fit is realistic with most rosters (e.g. you need another big) and the talent and flexibility in how he plays is pretty enticing. I couldn't blame anyone for taking him or passing on him; OKC, with Poku already there, seems like a really bad fit though.
Chet isn’t quite at the Dragan Bender level of my bust certainty…….but he’s in the same area code. I dislike him quite a bit at the next level.
 

JM3

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It's fine to be out on CHET (although I think that's incorrect), but not drafting him if he's the best player on your board because you have Poku would be insanely bad GMing.

Let's analogize something real quick & somewhat randomly that no one will understand where I'm coming from lol

Banchero = Baker
Jabari = Darnold
CHET = Allen
Ivey = Lamar
Murray = Rosen
 

RedOctober3829

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At 53, I'm looking at Rutgers G/F Ron Harper Jr. To me, he's a more athletic version of Grant Williams. Shot almost 40% from 3, switchable onto guards and forwards, very high basketball IQ, tough player, and a leader.
 

Auger34

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It's fine to be out on CHET (although I think that's incorrect), but not drafting him if he's the best player on your board because you have Poku would be insanely bad GMing.

Let's analogize something real quick & somewhat randomly that no one will understand where I'm coming from lol

Banchero = Baker
Jabari = Darnold
CHET = Allen
Ivey = Lamar
Murray = Rosen
Yeesh…not great for the careers of 60% of that group if you’re right
 

JM3

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Yeesh…not great for the careers of 60% of that group if you’re right
I don't actually think they're going to bust at that level. They're mostly pre-draft comps.

& it's mostly based around my unusual opinion of floors. I thought Josh Allen had the highest floor of any QB in that draft because I felt like his athleticism was too good to fail & even if he didn't quite get the accuracy together he would always be at least an average NFL QB. Dude is huge & fast with a cannon.

Chet has traits that to me show that unless he really does have some disabling genetic thing, he will always be a useful NBA player - & if he can get some other stuff together he also has the highest upside, even though like Allen they might not have the highest chance of reaching that upside.

The Ivey/LJax comp is a bit more straightforward - super elite athletes who are smaller but should be competitive enough to make it work.

Rosen/Murray is mostly just a shot at Murray, but they are big stats college players who just don't really excel at anything & aren't great athletes.

Banchero/Baker has to do with a bit of heroball & being a bit undersized for what they try to do, but both being pretty good athletes with some bust potential & some upside.

Jabari/Darnold are the all-around type players who are kind of quiet but should have solid careers & be in the mix - don't think Jabari will be a Darnold-level flop, but ending up with the Magic could be the equivalent of ending up with the Jets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don’t understand the Josh Allen comp at all. One thing Allen had was elite physicals…..big, strong and physically a beast. These are the areas where Chet is weakest and nowhere yet near NBA level which he may not ever be more than passable.

I see his upside similar to a Shawn Bradley complete with similar body type. He could be a rotation guy but one who will need to be matched with a physical presence frontcourt running mate which is why I won’t go full Bender on him. I wouldn’t take complete bust off the table though.
 

Ale Xander

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Bradley had nothing in regards to passing ability, agility, speed, verticals as to Chet but maybe my memory is failing me.
 

JM3

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I don’t understand the Josh Allen comp at all. One thing Allen had was elite physicals…..big, strong and physically a beast. These are the areas where Chet is weakest and nowhere yet near NBA level which he may not ever be more than passable.

I see his upside similar to a Shawn Bradley complete with similar body type. He could be a rotation guy but one who will need to be matched with a physical presence frontcourt running mate which is why I won’t go full Bender on him. I wouldn’t take complete bust off the table though.
Yes, he's light (& Josh Allen was inaccurate af) but his length, skill & bbIQ makes it impossible he will fail imo (barring health issues).

Statistically he was the best college defender since AD this season. & he's a good passer, good shooter & has excellent handle for his size.

Bender was unathletic, not nearly as long & had no proof of concept at any decent level.

I think smarter/thinner Porzingis is the better comp if comparing him to random tall international lottery picks.

& the only thing he has in common with Bradley is the ability to alter a game defensively. Bradley had none of his mobility & very little of his offensive skill (& still had a fairly decent 12-year career).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bradley had nothing in regards to passing ability, agility, speed, verticals as to Chet but maybe my memory is failing me.
Bradley was super skilled, agile and coordinated. The game was so different that it’s hard to compare eras but at the time this kid was the 2nd pick in a draft ahead of highly-regarded Penny and Mashburb despite not having played in two years due to being on his Mormon mission.
 

Kliq

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The Chet discourse is going to be very entertaining once he starts playing in the league. He has a lot of different outcomes, to put them in categories:

1. Complete bust, can't do anything, out of the league in a few years.

2. Not a complete bust, can do a few limited things but injuries/ineffectiveness prevent him from being particularly good. Plays parts of 7 seasons.

3. Competent role player that flashes potential, but has solid career and plays for some good teams. Not a bust but a little disappointing given where he was drafted.

4. Very good NBA player, borderline all-star who makes a lot of money and can be the 3rd best player on a good team.

5. All-Star, one of the best frontcourt players in the NBA.

6. Perennial MVP candidate; changes the way certain players play; a million future prospects are optimistically compared to him.

I think anyone of those outcomes is on the table (I think he is too good of a shooter and shot blocker to be a complete bust, personally). I've kind of tied my boat to him being pretty good because I think some people are being way too dismissive of him as a propsect
 

djbayko

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Bradley had nothing in regards to passing ability, agility, speed, verticals as to Chet but maybe my memory is failing me.
Maybe not but the next time someone with that rail thin body type makes it big in the NBA will be the first. To me it’s a huge warning sign - especially today when there’s no excuse for high profile HS and college prospects to not understand the importance of picking up a few weights every now and then. You have to wonder what is going on. Remember when people were salivating over Bol Bol’s skills? The skills don’t mean anything if you can’t compete physically with your peers. If I were a GM, there’s no way I’d gamble on someone like Chet. Although I do admit this is really tough draft year to be taking hard stances like that.
 

Ale Xander

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Maybe not but the next time someone with that rail thin body type makes it big in the NBA will be the first. To me it’s a huge warning sign - especially today when there’s no excuse for high profile HS and college athletes to not understand the importance of picking up a few weights every now and then. You have to wonder what is going on. Remember when people were salivating over Bol Bol’s skills? The skills don’t mean anything if you can’t compete physically with your peers. If I were a GM, there’s no way I’d gamble on someone like Chet. Although I do admit this is really tough draft year to be making hard stances like that.
Tayshaun Prince, Porzingis, Ingram are all very thin, no?
 

nighthob

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Porzingis was 7’3” 220 entering the draft. Tay was 6’9” 210. Ingram is closer having been 6’9” and around 200. Holmgren claims to be 7’1” 195 (but refused measurement). John Butler did show up for the pre-draft measurements and is the same height (roughly 7’1”). Butler looks larger than Holmgren (frame wise). He weighed in at under 180. Holmgren ain’t no 195. He’s closer to 165. Which means that his cap on weight before the athleticism goes away is something like 195-210. (I’m not particularly high on Butler, either, though I think he’ll have a long career as a depth 3&D big.)
 

djbayko

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Tayshaun Prince, Porzingis, Ingram are all very thin, no?
Ingram’s not bad. Porzingis is a horrible example considering his injury woes. Is Prince what you’re hoping for out of a top 3 pick? Okay, maybe you can find a few pretty good players over the last few decades, but the flameout percentage is still pretty damn high. I stand by my statement that I’’m not taking that risk if there are athletic bodied options available.

But also Id say that Chet looks more sickly than those examples.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Maybe not but the next time someone with that rail thin body type makes it big in the NBA will be the first. To me it’s a huge warning sign - especially today when there’s no excuse for high profile HS and college prospects to not understand the importance of picking up a few weights every now and then. You have to wonder what is going on. Remember when people were salivating over Bol Bol’s skills? The skills don’t mean anything if you can’t compete physically with your peers. If I were a GM, there’s no way I’d gamble on someone like Chet. Although I do admit this is really tough draft year to be taking hard stances like that.
Perhaps is just his team trying to get this out there during draft season, but there’s been press on his training routine lately- basically to the effect of how much he’s strength training at P3 and how he’s eating 8000 calories a day and whatnot. I never really got the sense that it was from lack of trying more so than extremely difficult given his physique. I agree with your earlier statement (and said basically the same thing about Poku before) that we’ve never really seen guys with that frame- those narrow hips and slight shoulders- work in the NBA.

It’s hard for me to see him filling out to point where he’s strong enough to be a great two way player, especially in the playoffs when the physicality intensifies. I think it’s worth a gamble given the upside, but this isn’t Victor Wembanyama, where it’s just a skinny, tall-ass kid waiting to grow into a decent frame an inevitability dominate. Much riskier to invest in.
 

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At 53, I'm looking at Rutgers G/F Ron Harper Jr. To me, he's a more athletic version of Grant Williams. Shot almost 40% from 3, switchable onto guards and forwards, very high basketball IQ, tough player, and a leader.
Caught the Harper kid a few times because my brother works at Rutgers. Love all of the makeup stuff, as you say. Wouldn't mind a flier on him for that reason alone. He's a big game shotmaker, plus the IQ and leadership stuff. That said, I think that there's an athleticism gulf between him and Grant that's much bigger than what you think.
 

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Caught the Harper kid a few times because my brother works at Rutgers. Love all of the makeup stuff, as you say. Wouldn't mind a flier on him for that reason alone. He's a big game shotmaker, plus the IQ and leadership stuff. That said, I think that there's an athleticism gulf between him and Grant that's much bigger than what you think.
You're saying Grant is the better athlete?
 

Jimbodandy

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You're saying Grant is the better athlete?
Ha, yes. Grant is insanely strong and fast enough to stay in front of 2-5, aside from his fat year where he was unplayable.

It's a coin flip as to whether Harper has an NBA career with as many minutes as Grant already has.

Kid can shoot. Why else would we be talking about him at 53?
 

djbayko

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Perhaps is just his team trying to get this out there during draft season, but there’s been press on his training routine lately- basically to the effect of how much he’s strength training at P3 and how he’s eating 8000 calories a day and whatnot. I never really got the sense that it was from lack of trying more so than extremely difficult given his physique. I agree with your earlier statement (and said basically the same thing about Poku before) that we’ve never really seen guys with that frame- those narrow hips and slight shoulders- work in the NBA.

It’s hard for me to see him filling out to point where he’s strong enough to be a great two way player, especially in the playoffs when the physicality intensifies. I think it’s worth a gamble given the upside, but this isn’t Victor Wembanyama, where it’s just a skinny, tall-ass kid waiting to grow into a decent frame an inevitability dominate. Much riskier to invest in.
I don’t buy the physique excuse. Yeah, I get the fact that he has different mechanics than I do. But he’s not the first 7-footer to try to put on weight, and this kid has NOTHING. If you put muscles under stress, they’ll grow. It’s biology. If you’re a 5 star prospect and it’s important to you, you’ll find a way.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Chet discourse is going to be very entertaining once he starts playing in the league. He has a lot of different outcomes, to put them in categories:

1. Complete bust, can't do anything, out of the league in a few years.

2. Not a complete bust, can do a few limited things but injuries/ineffectiveness prevent him from being particularly good. Plays parts of 7 seasons.

3. Competent role player that flashes potential, but has solid career and plays for some good teams. Not a bust but a little disappointing given where he was drafted.

4. Very good NBA player, borderline all-star who makes a lot of money and can be the 3rd best player on a good team.

5. All-Star, one of the best frontcourt players in the NBA.

6. Perennial MVP candidate; changes the way certain players play; a million future prospects are optimistically compared to him.

I think anyone of those outcomes is on the table (I think he is too good of a shooter and shot blocker to be a complete bust, personally). I've kind of tied my boat to him being pretty good because I think some people are being way too dismissive of him as a propsect
Pencil me in for 2.75 but I can be convinced to go up to 3.15 on a good sales pitch.


Porzingis is a horrible example considering his injury woes.
A good part of the Chet skepticism is his body holding up though. I loved Porzingis entering the draft as he played his size/length and despite his frame didn’t get pushed around by grown men overseas. We’ve seen Chet get muscled by kids in the WCC due to his poor lower body base.