2023 Draft Fits

[Bowser]

Evan Lazar says Hutchinson is Jakobi Meyers ... and so a 3rd round pick is a little too rich for me. But anyway here's Lazar:

"Hutchinson is another 'technician' who wins at the intermediate level with nuanced route-running. He's good at gaining leverage with an advanced release package, setting up his route breaks, and winning with body positioning and suddenness at the top of the route. Hutchinson also has strong hands for contested catches in traffic. However, he falls down the rankings a bit because he's not overly dynamic in his movements and doesn't possess great long speed. The player we are describing sounds like Jakobi Meyers, right? If Meyers walks in free agency, Hutchinson is a comparable replacement who might not change the offense but could fill that role. Projection: Third or Fourth Round."

 

[OldeBeanTowne]

Thanks for sharing. I like Lazar usually, but does Hutchinson's extra ten pounds (listed without NFL conditioning) and 6'3" vs. Jakobi at 6'2" make a significant difference? They don't seem to be exactly the same type of player to me.

Hutchinson seems to play with more violence than Meyers does. Meyers always gives off a calm demeanor, which I appreciate (his inexplicable lateral decision that much more mind boggling), but having that mean streak can also be beneficial.

I like Jakobi and he's been a reliable WR for the Pats, but if he's looking at free agent offers that they'd be better off not matching, a 3rd rounder doesn't seem a crazy cost to replace him on the cheap.

Now, whether Hutchinson is that guy, I have no clue.

 

[ehaz]

Lazar posted his top 10 (pre-combine) draft fits at corner earlier this week. His top three are Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, and Joey Porter Jr.

They've been discussed here but he has similar lists out for tackle (Broderick Jones, Paris Johnson, Peter Skoronski) and WR (JSN, Addison, and Flowers).

 

[Justthetippett]

Good call.
CBS Sports (Chris Trapasso) has a new mock draft out calling for Indy to trade up to the top spot and then drafting AR 1/1.

The fit in Indy makes some sense with Steichen, but I think AR going 1/1 would be a challenge for a guy that likely needs a year or two to acclimate to the pro game and clean up his mechanics. There's so much pressure to play guys drafted #1 right away.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I’ve looked at 14 edge rushers so far, some are IDL/edges, but all of them for me have a top 100 day 1-2 kind of grade. There are a ton of guys who might interest the Patriots. There are probably up to 16-20 guys who could go day 1 or 2. There are all kinds of rushers. You have elite speed guys, elite power guys, technicians, edges who can play some IDL, some guys who can play some ILB. This class is loaded with them. It’s hard to narrow down who would be the best fit on the Patriots too. They go for a lot of different types at edge. They don’t have a prototype. That’s what makes narrowing down who is the best fit of many difficult.

 

[ehaz]

I’ve looked at 14 edge rushers so far, some are IDL/edges, but all of them for me have a top 100 day 1-2 kind of grade. There are a ton of guys who might interest the Patriots. There are probably up to 16-20 guys who could go day 1 or 2. There are all kinds of rushers. You have elite speed guys, elite power guys, technicians, edges who can play some IDL, some guys who can play some ILB. This class is loaded with them. It’s hard to narrow down who would be the best fit on the Patriots too. They go for a lot of different types at edge. They don’t have a prototype. That’s what makes narrowing down who is the best fit of many difficult.

Any edge rushers that you're higher on than "consensus" or you think are being overlooked?

Also curious what you think about Andre Carter. He seems to be one of the guys who is most divisive among draft people and I know he apparently had an awful senior bowl. PFF still has him as a 1st rounder though and others have been defending him by saying the lack of power is due to West Point weight requirements, etc.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Any edge rushers that you're higher on than "consensus" or you think are being overlooked?

Also curious what you think about Andre Carter. He seems to be one of the guys who is most divisive among draft people and I know he apparently had an awful senior bowl. PFF still has him as a 1st rounder though and others have been defending him by saying the lack of power is due to West Point weight requirements, etc.

The West Point thing is true. I have either a 6.69 or 7.75 on him. Basically he's super high ceiling but he desperately needs to add weight because he can't play the run at all right now. He might even be a two year project just to get to a better playing weight. You might not get a decent return on him until year 3. He has pro bowl traits but he's a bean pole. A 7.75 is a 1st round kind of grade. A 6.69 is more of a 2nd/3rd.

 

[ehaz]

Not reading into this too much but some early twitter reports on who they’ve been meeting with below. Interesting to see Tyree Wilson, who most have going top 10, and Lukas Van Ness (another likely 1st).

- Tyree Wilson EDGE (Texas Tech, PFF #7)
- Lukas Van Ness EDGE (Iowa, PFF #12)
- Adetomiwa Adebawore EDGE (Northwestern, PFF #45)
- Ivan Pace Jr LB (Cincinatti, PFF #99)
- Keondre Coburn DT (Texas, PFF #118)
- Dante Stills DT (West Virginia, PFF #259)

View: https://twitter.com/DakRandallNESN/status/1630919387493302273?s=20


View: https://twitter.com/ZackCoxNESN/status/1630927851632328704?s=20


View: https://twitter.com/DakRandallNESN/status/1631022778500493312?s=20


View: https://twitter.com/DakRandallNESN/status/1630916903693611008?s=20


View: https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1630958078681141249?s=20


https://twitter.com/_AndrewCallahan/status/1630959157212766209?s=20

 

[SMU_Sox]

I love Van Ness and Adebawore. Adebawore is a feisty interior rusher who can play some 5 tech. Burst and athleticism but has some stiffness and issues finishing. Quite a disruptive player though and can line up a lot of places on the DL. Van Ness has insane explosion and power but is super raw everywhere else as a pass rusher and he needs help stacking and shedding as a run defender. High ceiling and incredible athlete with fantastic size profile.

 

[Shelterdog]

The West Point thing is true. I have either a 6.69 or 7.75 on him. Basically he's super high ceiling but he desperately needs to add weight because he can't play the run at all right now. He might even be a two year project just to get to a better playing weight. You might not get a decent return on him until year 3. He has pro bowl traits but he's a bean pole. A 7.75 is a 1st round kind of grade. A 6.69 is more of a 2nd/3rd.

On west point--more of a general fitness question than a football question--does anyone have more info or a source on what west point does to restrict lifting? I've heard in essence that the army doesn't want people to squat above a certain weight and i'm really curious about what policies and rationale and supporting data they have about that. Like if the army has good data saying don't do deadlift/squat above weight X maybe a good idea for some of us to follow those recommendations...

 

[Cellar-Door]

On west point--more of a general fitness question than a football question--does anyone have more info or a source on what west point does to restrict lifting? I've heard in essence that the army doesn't want people to squat above a certain weight and i'm really curious about what policies and rationale and supporting data they have about that. Like if the army has good data saying don't do deadlift/squat above weight X maybe a good idea for some of us to follow those recommendations...

Army has a powerlifting team, and they mention that they train soldier-athletes for the Olympics in powerlifting so I don't think they have limits

 

[Shelterdog]

Army has a powerlifting team, and they mention that they train soldier-athletes for the Olympics in powerlifting so I don't think they have limits

That totally makes sense and I would have assumed so but on some of the draft shows-including bruglers athletic podcast-they are saying the army doesn’t let cadets squat heavily, period.

 

[ehaz]

Some new reported Patriots combine meetings today:

- CB: Christian Gonzalez (Oregon, PFF #10)
- CB: Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State, PFF #21)
- CB: Eli Ricks (Alabama, PFF #63)
- CB: Emmanuel Forbes (MS State, PFF #42)
- CB: Cam Smith (South Carolina, PFF #69)
- CB: Jay Ward (LSU, PFF #277)

Lots of tall guys. Gonzalez, Porter, Ricks, and Ward are 6'2. Forbes is an aggressive ballhawk. Evals of Cam Smith seem all over the place--great ball skills and football IQ but some seem to question whether he has the requisite athleticism of a 1st round pick.

Oh and they also interviewed Anthony Richardson.

View: https://twitter.com/DakRandallNESN/status/1631341751356071954?s=20

 

[Justthetippett]

That totally makes sense and I would have assumed so but on some of the draft shows-including bruglers athletic podcast-they are saying the army doesn’t let cadets squat heavily, period.

Army's priority is obviously to prepare cadets for combat. I'm sure they have models for ideal size/weight and have to take these into account for troop transport, among other things. Bigger is not necessarily better. But, like everything, there are exceptions.

 

[ehaz]

I love Van Ness and Adebawore. Adebawore is a feisty interior rusher who can play some 5 tech. Burst and athleticism but has some stiffness and issues finishing. Quite a disruptive player though and can line up a lot of places on the DL. Van Ness has insane explosion and power but is super raw everywhere else as a pass rusher and he needs help stacking and shedding as a run defender. High ceiling and incredible athlete with fantastic size profile.

Adebawore just ran a 4.54 at 280 odd pounds.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

His vertical and broad jumps are the leaders in the clubhouse thus far. Hand/arm size are both near the top of the group.

 

[Justthetippett]

I don't actually think it will happen, but if Josh pines for Mac, then a trade up to get Richardson is probably possible. Right? Various heads would explode. I don't think he'll be there at 14.

 

[heavyde050]

Adebawore just ran a 4.54 at 280 odd pounds.

Was the official at 4.49?
https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/live-results/

 

[Cellar-Door]

Was the official at 4.49?
https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/live-results/

yep just updated

 

[heavyde050]

yep just updated

That is so fast. Also, the DT from Pitt (Kancey) broke Aaron Donald's record. Lots of speed on display so far today.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-combine-2023-pittsburghs-calijah-kancey-sets-40-yard-dash-record-for-dts-breaking-aaron-donalds-mark/

 

[j44thor]

One guy I'm really intrigued with is Lukas Van Ness who was mentioned by SMU and others upthread. 6'5" 272 runs a 4.58 and only 21 YO and coming out as a RS sophomore so not a lot of wear and tear. Great article on his overall story and more importantly he has never had a significant injury in his life. Can also play inside and out. Mocked anywhere from 10-20, if you can get an elite edge at 14 that would be very good value.
https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2023/02/28/lukas-van-ness-dream-nfl-draft-combine-prospect-iowa-football/69932243007/

Interesting that he never started a game at Iowa but played 2nd most snaps among DL because Iowa preferred to leverage him in mis-matches vs. just have him in there banging on every down.

 

[j44thor]

Not that it will matter but Will Anderson having a pedestrian combine. 4.6 forty and struggled during the pass rush drill which should be his forte, rounded rush from left side and stumbled on the right.
Thought this line in his NFL.com scouting report was pretty funny. Don't often see a single matchup highlighted like this.

• Tennessee RT Darnell Wright’s length and power gave him issues.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Jack Campbell might be someone to watch for the 2nd.
ILB, lot of college production, huge at 6'4.5" 249 pounds, were some questions about athleticism.... he just put up a 9.98 RAS. That could drop some if he doesn't bench well, but not all that much.
View: https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1631487343575150594


That 3 cone in particular is just silly.

 

[OldeBeanTowne]

I know RB isn't exactly an area of need necessarily, but I've been watching Devon Achane highlights and he is quite impressive. His skill set would seem to fit well with the current back field and could potentially see time as a receiving back (which actually could be considered an area of need) early in his career due to his supposed blocking ability.

He just looks like a better athlete than the guys he's playing against. I am a believer in the need for game changing athletes in today's NFL. His speed and change of direction are special.

His special teams ability makes him that much more appealing.

Is he repetitive/too similar to Pierre Strong Jr. (different player obviously) though?

Really moving up my binkie list.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The edge and IDL/edge guys almost all tested through the roof. Did I mention this is a damn good edge class? My boy McGuire also has sick explosion numbers. This is the best edge class from top to bottom in a decade. Just loaded with all kinds of talent and types.

 

[j44thor]

I know RB isn't exactly an area of need necessarily, but I've been watching Devon Achane highlights and he is quite impressive. His skill set would seem to fit well with the current back field and could potentially see time as a receiving back (which actually could be considered an area of need) early in his career due to his supposed blocking ability.



He just looks like a better athlete than the guys he's playing against. I am a believer in the need for game changing athletes in today's NFL. His speed and change of direction are special.



His special teams ability makes him that much more appealing.



Is he repetitive/too similar to Pierre Strong Jr. (different player obviously) though?



Really moving up my binkie list.

I think a big issue with Achane is he can't pass block at all. That is a requirement for being a third down back in NE. Achane seems to be a scripted touches back mostly.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think a big issue with Achane is he can't pass block at all. That is a requirement for being a third down back in NE. Achane seems to be a scripted touches back mostly.

Yeah, I like Kenny McIntosh a lot as a receiving back, but he also stinks in pass pro, so not sure he's an option.

 

[j44thor]

Boston College WR Zay Flowers added 13 pounds of muscle after completing his training at PER4ORM in South Florida, per Pelissero

Interesting note from the nfl.com combine notes. That is an insane amount of muscle to add on a 180lb Frame

 

[ehaz]

Boston College WR Zay Flowers added 13 pounds of muscle after completing his training at PER4ORM in South Florida, per Pelissero

Interesting note from the nfl.com combine notes. That is an insane amount of muscle to add on a 180lb Frame

Yeah I think he’s going to test very well and after this weekend, no chance he’s dropping out of the 1st round and making it close to #46, especially with the “weak” WR class.

 

[ehaz]

View: https://twitter.com/DakRandallNESN/status/1631646503042154498?s=20

 

[Shelterdog]

Boston College WR Zay Flowers added 13 pounds of muscle after completing his training at PER4ORM in South Florida, per Pelissero

Interesting note from the nfl.com combine notes. That is an insane amount of muscle to add on a 180lb Frame

So what was he doing the last four years? That’s the kind of gain you should only have if you’ve never lifted befoee

 

[Cellar-Door]

So what was he doing the last four years? That’s the kind of gain you should only have if you’ve never lifted befoee

BC doesn't have the good juice

 

[OldeBeanTowne]

I think a big issue with Achane is he can't pass block at all. That is a requirement for being a third down back in NE. Achane seems to be a scripted touches back mostly.

Thanks for pointing that out. Obviously, that would be a big negative given what his potential role might be.

I clearly didn't do enough looking into it because I mentioned his "supposed blocking ability" based on the note on one of his positives as an "Above-average pass protector. Good eyes and quick reaction time."

BR Scouting Report

I'm not familiar with the accuracy of these "scouting reports" in particular, so thanks for the correction.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Thanks for pointing that out. Obviously, that would be a big negative given what his potential role might be.

I clearly didn't do enough looking into it because I mentioned his "supposed blocking ability" based on the note on one of his positives as an "Above-average pass protector. Good eyes and quick reaction time."

BR Scouting Report

I'm not familiar with the accuracy of these "scouting reports" in particular, so thanks for the correction.

I generally wouldn't trust anything from BR unless it has a name you know attached to it, you have no idea who wrote it, and they have a huge base of amateurs writing for them in the open publishing model.

 

[ehaz]

Patriots also had a “very detailed” interview with Jordan Addison. I know many are down on this WR class but I personally think you need to keep taking shots at WR in the draft, and Addison is my favorite this year.

View: https://twitter.com/thedan_parr/status/1631691145863471104?s=46&t=SWvhVPmiF82HPJUNdjCFoQ

 

[Cellar-Door]

Patriots also had a “very detailed” interview with Jordan Addison. I know many are down on this WR class but I personally think you need to keep taking shots at WR in the draft, and Addison is my favorite this year.

View: https://twitter.com/thedan_parr/status/1631691145863471104?s=46&t=SWvhVPmiF82HPJUNdjCFoQ

I think this is exactly the draft you want to take a shot in the 2nd again (or 3rd), I just don't see it as a draft I want to use 14 on a WR.

 

[ehaz]

I think this is exactly the draft you want to take a shot in the 2nd again (or 3rd), I just don't see it as a draft I want to use 14 on a WR.

I think you're right that taking a different position/trading back at 14 and then taking someone like Downs at 46 (or maybe a flier on Boutte) is more realistic and maybe the better option.

I would personally be happy using 14 on Addison, especially if the top tackles and Gonzalez/Witherspoon are gone by #14. But I admit I'm higher on him than most. To me, he's got an ideal combination of speed and route running skill. I could easily see Addison becoming a Ridley/Jeudy/Devonta Smith type WR fairly quickly. I get the size and concerns about his reps vs press, but he's so young (just turned 21 a month ago) that I think he'll eventually be fine. While that part of his game develops, a smart coordinator like BOB can take advantage of what he's already great at by getting him in motion, scheming up free releases, etc.

 

[j44thor]

I think this is exactly the draft you want to take a shot in the 2nd again (or 3rd), I just don't see it as a draft I want to use 14 on a WR.

I think the problem with drafting WRs this year is they will likely be overdrafted because the class is so weak but there is such a premium on the position now. The wrs that get drafted in 2nd/3rd are probably 4th/5th rd values this year.

 

[Shelterdog]

I think the problem with drafting WRs this year is they will likely be overdrafted because the class is so weak but there is such a premium on the position now. The wrs that get drafted in 2nd/3rd are probably 4th/5th rd values this year.

It's a hang up of mine but I'm really not sure what "fourth/fifth round value" means. I assume you mean that the prospect you get in rounds two or three this year is basically going to be as good a prospect as you'd normally get in round four or five, but there's so much uncertainty in evaluating that I have no confidence in anyone's ability to say player X is really a fifth round pick, not a third round pick. Particularly because even if teams saw players the same way (which they don't) they still wouldn't value them all the same because team X might want cover corners and team Y might want people who are better in zone, or wants its linebacker to be stout in the run, or whatever.

All that said I agree that if you want a WR who's going to contribute you should pick one very early; the list of WRs who are really exiting is quite short and while surely some fifth round pick will work out, good luck figuing out who that is.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think the problem with drafting WRs this year is they will likely be overdrafted because the class is so weak but there is such a premium on the position now. The wrs that get drafted in 2nd/3rd are probably 4th/5th rd values this year.

I think what this class lacks is clear #1 guys, the type who go 1st half of round 1. I think it's loaded with those borderline guys who go rounds 2-3 every year, and will again this year. 2019 and 2020 I think are illustrative in some ways. Now is it possible that teams go all out on WR in the 1st anyway, and the 2nd round is thinner... maybe, but I think at 46 there is a good chance you're still looking at someone in the Dell/Downs/Hyatt group. Especially since there is such a strong TE class, and many teams look at playmakers as playmakers, so a few less WRs go than in a stronger class, but you see 3-5 TEs in the first two rounds.

 

[ehaz]

I think what this class lacks is clear #1 guys, the type who go 1st half of round 1. I think it's loaded with those borderline guys who go rounds 2-3 every year, and will again this year. 2019 and 2020 I think are illustrative in some ways. Now is it possible that teams go all out on WR in the 1st anyway, and the 2nd round is thinner... maybe, but I think at 46 there is a good chance you're still looking at someone in the Dell/Downs/Hyatt group. Especially since there is such a strong TE class, and many teams look at playmakers as playmakers, so a few less WRs go than in a stronger class, but you see 3-5 TEs in the first two rounds.

I’m absolutely not advocating for drafting him, but I don’t think Hyatt is going to last. I’m convinced he’ll run a 4.2 or something like that and get drafted top 20 by a team that gets obsessed with his speed.

 

[ehaz]

Also re - tight ends, remove this guy from our board.

View: https://twitter.com/pff/status/1631734138322538496?s=46&t=SWvhVPmiF82HPJUNdjCFoQ

 

[tims4wins]

Also re - tight ends, remove this guy from our board.

View: https://twitter.com/pff/status/1631734138322538496?s=46&t=SWvhVPmiF82HPJUNdjCFoQ

Realize you are being a bit facetious, but how old was he when Gronk was GRONK? 2015 is a long time ago, Mayer was like 14.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Also re - tight ends, remove this guy from our board.

View: https://twitter.com/pff/status/1631734138322538496?s=46&t=SWvhVPmiF82HPJUNdjCFoQ

I think Gronk himself has proven that keen intellect and judgment are not required to be a successful TE. I kind of like him as a safe, high-floor option.

 

[Shelterdog]

I think Gronk himself has proven that keen intellect and judgment are not required to be a successful TE. I kind of like him as a safe, high-floor option.

I wouldn’t ask him to opine on existentialism or to calculate second derivatives but on a football filed Gronk was a really smart guy with generally excellent judgment

 

[OldeBeanTowne]

I generally wouldn't trust anything from BR unless it has a name you know attached to it, you have no idea who wrote it, and they have a huge base of amateurs writing for them in the open publishing model.

Appreciate the heads up. Mea culpa. Admittedly, I just started watching some of his YouTube videos, did a quick search, and that link was one of first few I looked at. Should've dug deeper than that.

And, as someone who didn't get as much chance as prior years/a lot of opportunity to watch this past College season, I should probably go back to lurking more.

I do think this is a critical draft for the Pats to get right (aren't they all?) given the state of the franchise and, especially, Belichick's impending retirement. I've been trying to catch up on some guys I'd like to see the Pats draft and didn't do enough consideration on my own using worthwhile resources.

Thanks to everybody for getting names out there for people to get excited about that may actually have a chance of being drafted by the team.

All that said, screw it, Achane train it is.

 

[ehaz]

So is Deonte Banks testing himself into being part of the Witherspoon/Gonzalez/Porter Jr crew?

View: https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1631752672775733266?s=20

 

[j44thor]

I’m absolutely not advocating for drafting him, but I don’t think Hyatt is going to last. I’m convinced he’ll run a 4.2 or something like that and get drafted top 20 by a team that gets obsessed with his speed.

Yeah Hyatt is a better Tyquan Thornton, not really what NE needs. Josh Downs would probably be interesting in 2nd but doubt he lasts to 46.

Christian Gonzalez just blew up the combine. 4.38, 41.5 high, 11.1 broad at 6'1 197lbs.

It will be interesting to see where the tier breaks are in this draft after the combine is finished. I'm confident there will be elite options available at 14, possibly all the way to 20 just not sure how far back NE should consider trading back.

 

[ehaz]

Tracking potential McCourty replacements—Christopher Smith and Brandon Joseph ran 4.62s, not ideal.

Sydney Brown though…

 

[Cellar-Door]

Tracking potential McCourty replacements—Christopher Smith and Brandon Joseph ran 4.62s, not ideal.

Sydney Brown though…

View: https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1631795381632638978


woof the 1.28u RAS is horrific, he's short, light, slow, unexplosive and can't jump....... but other than that.