2023 MLB Draft

Ferm Sheller

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Out of curiosity, how was it determined that the Twins (identical record as Sox's) get the higher pick going into the lottery?

EDIT: Never mind. I should have googled it, but I'll answer for the benefit of anyone else who's interested: Tiebreaker goes to the team with the worse record the prior year.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-mlb-draft-order-tiebreaker-likely-gives-orioles-the-no-1-pick/. From the article: "MLB’s tiebreaker to determine draft order is to break ties by giving preference to the team with a worse record the previous season."
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I know the best strategy is to just pick the best player available. Does anyone here have any thoughts on who that may be at 14?
Otherwise Sox needs are (duh!) pitching. I’d like to see a kid with great plate discipline and power with some projectable corner OF defense. Seems all the power guys on the fahm are 1B types at best.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I know the best strategy is to just pick the best player available. Does anyone here have any thoughts on who that may be at 14?
Otherwise Sox needs are (duh!) pitching. I’d like to see a kid with great plate discipline and power with some projectable corner OF defense. Seems all the power guys on the fahm are 1B types at best.
According to that article, there are a number of guys who fit the pitching and corner OF with plate discipline and power profile you're asking for. There are also a ton of SS on that list, so prepare yourself for that too.

4. Max Clark CF- high schooler who is viewed as a pro hitter who knows the strike zone and hits to all fields. Not a ton of power, maybe 20+ at his peak. Strong upside, but considerable downside since he's already maxed out physically and has a long way to go.
5. Wyatt Langford LF, Florida- here's your power bat. Can hit it out to all fields. 26 HR in 303 AB's last year with 44 K's and 36 BB. 1.166 OPS.
6. Walker Jenkins- OF, likely RF/LF- high school bat with plus bat speed, power and a strong arm. Expected to hit for average and power. He's also 6'3", 200 lbs. Has injury concerns
8. Hurston Waldrep- SP, Florida. Spent 2 years at So. Miss & will pitch this spring for UF. Had 140K's, 33 BB in 90 IP as a soph. Athletic, quick arm can run it up to 99 with a solid slider, promising curveball and a work in progress splitter.
10. Rhett Lowder- SP, Wake Forest. Low to mid 90's fastball with life, solid slider and maybe the best changeup in the class. ACC pitcher of the year last year. Ceiling lower than Waldrep but kid knows how to pitch.
11. Enrique Bradfield- CF, Vandy. All speed CF, probably not what you're looking for. But good approach at the plate, willing to take a walk, and is a terror on the basepaths.
12. Travis Honeyman- LF, BC. Solid all-around player with a fringe arm that will keep him in LF. Average power/average combo. Not much speed.
13. Paul Skenes- SP, LSU. Two way player, spent last 2 years at Air Force. Higher ceiling as a SP, but stuff plays better out of the pen. Low 90's fastball (up to 98 in relief), solid split-change and average-below ave slider.
14. Aiden Miller- 3B/OF. High schooler who may end up in the OF as his body matures. Plus bat speed leading to plus power.
17. Cade Kuehler- SP, Campbell. High effort delivery with upper 90's fastball and a cutter/slider that has plus potential. Needs to throw more strikes but has upside as a starter.
18. Noble Mayer- SP. High schooler with deceptive delivery, 98 mph heat that has run, a slider with solid potential and a changeup that needs work with average potential.
19. Jack Hurley, OF, VaTech. 4 tool guy (arm is below ave), with solid power, a good approach at the plate and can steal some bases. Strikeouts are a concern here.
22. Thomas White, SP. High school lefty viewed by some as the best LHP prospect since Steve Avery. Fastball up to 96 with room to go up. Curveball & change need work but show promise. Command may be an issue.

Still a lot of time for these rankings to change, obviously, but there are quiet a few OF and SP prospects that should be in the Sox range.
 

simplicio

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The mock drafts have been coming in.

MLB Pipeline has Dollander falling to Boston:
14. Red Sox: Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee (No. 6)
If Dollander were to get this far, there’s a good chance the Red Sox wouldn’t let him go by. If he’s gone, or they pass on the arm, there’s talk that they like Miller from the high school hitter bucket and this is the first place Arizona outfielder Chase Davis’ name seriously comes up.

While Law has them on a college bat:
14. Boston Red Sox – Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland
Shaw is one of the best hitters in the college class, with hard contact and power, but needs to play somewhere other than shortstop. He’s one of many college bats I’ve heard linked to Boston, along with Troy and Taylor, all of whom are good batted-ball data guys as well as hitters scouts believe will continue to hit in pro ball.

BaseballAmerica agrees on Shaw:
14. Red Sox — Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

Shaw has gained some steam and feels like a fit in the 10-15 range on the board. He’s likely not a shortstop at the next level but he hits and hits for power. He’s now had back-to-back seasons with 20-plus home runs and he is now the Maryland program leader in career home runs. The Red Sox have been one of the teams linked with him.

CBS Sports thinks Shaw will go at 13 and has us on Miller:
14
Red Sox
Pick: SS Aiden Miller, Mitchell HS (Florida) ($4,663,100 slot value)

The Red Sox have used their last four first-round picks on high school hitters, including the last three on high school hitters with standout hit tools (Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, Mikey Romero) under president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom. A hamate injury sabotaged Miller's spring, though he has a long track record and is well-known to scouts, and fits Boston's M.O. as a prep kid who can really hit. There's a chance Miller would have played his way into the top 10 had his wrist cooperated this spring.
 

TimScribble

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I’d be shocked to see Dollander fall that far, but would be a nice snag for Boston. I like Waldrep from UF as well. I know you don’t draft for need but an established college arm would be exciting but not likely for this front office. Lowder is another guy that will be in that 8-15 range.
 

TimScribble

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MLB.com scout on Shaw:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/matt-shaw-807713

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

The University of Maryland has produced some solid middle-infield talent that has gone in the top five rounds, notably 2015 third-rounder Brandon Lowe and fourth-rounder Kevin Smith in '17. Shaw has a good chance to beat both Terrapins alumni after hitting .332 as a freshman, blasting 22 homers as a sophomore and then greatly enhancing his Draft stock by capturing Cape Cod League MVP honors thanks to a .360/.432/.574 line.

Shaw might be one of the better college hitters in the Draft class. He rarely strikes out and draws walks while making consistently hard contact. He can drive the ball to all fields and he showed off impressive opposite-field power last year for Maryland, with many of his homers going out to right and right-center field. He’s a plus runner who is a legitimate basestealing threat.

Shaw is currently the Terrapins' shortstop, but he’s shown off some defensive versatility, playing second, third and the outfield as a freshman and seeing time on both sides of second on the Cape. A team taking him could certainly send him out as a shortstop, but most feel his arm will push him to second long-term. Wherever he plays, it’s his bat that could get him drafted in the first round
 

simplicio

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I’d be shocked to see Dollander fall that far, but would be a nice snag for Boston. I like Waldrep from UF as well. I know you don’t draft for need but an established college arm would be exciting but not likely for this front office. Lowder is another guy that will be in that 8-15 range.
I'd also be surprised if we got Dollander, though they mentioned in a video capsule that his spring hasn't quite lived up to expectations set last year, so maybe his stock has fallen a bit.
 

TimScribble

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Yeah, he’s had some control problems this year which is concerning. But I think his potential will be too much for some team to pass up.
 

JM3

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Based on recent results, I am at peace with whatever they decide & will assume it's probably the correct path.
 

simplicio

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Miller's name comes up a couple times here too; MLB has him at 19 to the Rays, Law at 20 to the Blue Jays, BA at 33 in an over slot deal with the Brewers.
66378
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I generally like the amount of good pitching in the lower minors and think Bloom should continue to look mostly at the international draft to keep stocking the system through there with young arms.
The most immediate need I think is a good power hitting corner outfielder with 25HR potential. Someone who could make a jump in 2 years, so preferably college graduate type.
 

Scoops Bolling

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Never ever draft for need. Draft the best player available.

In all probability, I think it'll be another high school MI. This is a really good class on that front, and the Sox have picked well from it.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Never ever draft for need. Draft the best player available.

In all probability, I think it'll be another high school MI. This is a really good class on that front, and the Sox have picked well from it.
I think this depends on the general state of the farm and ETA for your high-end players. Most of the time…. Yeah. Not a hard rule though
 

JM3

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I think this depends on the general state of the farm and ETA for your high-end players. Most of the time…. Yeah. Not a hard rule though
Naw. BPA always. If you get a surplus you can always reallocate from a position of strength.
 

simplicio

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Law now has Shaw going at 10, Sox getting Taylor.

14. Boston Red Sox — Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
DOB: 5-22-2002 | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180

The Red Sox might be the floor for Shaw, and they’ve been linked to Taylor, Troy, Bradfield, and Kevin McGonigle as well. I haven’t heard any pitchers here.

Scouting Report: Taylor has a very pretty left-handed swing with good loft in the finish to drive the ball in the air, with some of the best batted-ball data in the college class, from launch angle to hard-hit rates and more. He had a low BABIP this year of just .307, inconsistent with how hard he hits the ball and how often he does so. He also slumped in the middle of the season, but had a huge Big 12 tournament, going 8 for 16 with four doubles and three homers, with a .305/.430/.650 line heading into the regionals, and a career-best 21 homers. He’s just an average runner but savvy on the bases, with a perfect 23 for 23 record on the bases his last two years at TCU. He’s a solid-average defender at third with a 55 or 60 arm, although he’s athletic and rangy enough to become a plus defender with the right coaching. Taylor projects as a solid-average regular, with a couple of ways he could turn into something more.
 

Hendu Candu

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Let me be the first to predict another high school SS to Boston -- Arjun Nimmala, though he would shatter Chaim's mold, being from Florida instead of California. Glove to stay at SS, real power, and probably the youngest player to be taken in the first round this year.
 

nighthob

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Does Nimmala last until #14? I thought he was a top ten pick. I’d love it if he were still on the board for Boston.
 

TimScribble

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If Shaw moved into the top-10, we’d start to see a name or two shake loose and fall like Nimmala. But he’s been on the rise as of late.
 

JM3

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Here's a pretty long profile on Nimmala that was kind of interesting.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37929232/mlb-draft-2023-arjun-nimmala-cricket-baseball

I assume one of the biggest factors for the Red Sox is whether they think the better opportunity is a guy falling to them because other teams don't want to pay his asking price (like the Mayer year), or maybe going under slot because they think the better opportunities to go over on guys are going to be later (like the Yorke/Blaze year). Or I guess approximate slot on the 1st round & going over & under later on (like the Romero/Anthony year).
 

nighthob

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I hope that he’s right about Nimmala slipping because that swing of his is seriously beautiful. I would love to see him in Fenway.
 

SamBowen

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MLB.com scout on Shaw:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/matt-shaw-807713

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

The University of Maryland has produced some solid middle-infield talent that has gone in the top five rounds, notably 2015 third-rounder Brandon Lowe and fourth-rounder Kevin Smith in '17. Shaw has a good chance to beat both Terrapins alumni after hitting .332 as a freshman, blasting 22 homers as a sophomore and then greatly enhancing his Draft stock by capturing Cape Cod League MVP honors thanks to a .360/.432/.574 line.

Shaw might be one of the better college hitters in the Draft class. He rarely strikes out and draws walks while making consistently hard contact. He can drive the ball to all fields and he showed off impressive opposite-field power last year for Maryland, with many of his homers going out to right and right-center field. He’s a plus runner who is a legitimate basestealing threat.

Shaw is currently the Terrapins' shortstop, but he’s shown off some defensive versatility, playing second, third and the outfield as a freshman and seeing time on both sides of second on the Cape. A team taking him could certainly send him out as a shortstop, but most feel his arm will push him to second long-term. Wherever he plays, it’s his bat that could get him drafted in the first round
I'd love to get Shaw if he's available. Aside from his obvious talent, local kids are always fun to root for.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Chaim has yet to leave a draft without a 1st rd HS middle infielder with a good hit tool and a power corner type with the next pick or two (including unsigned Fabian in this accounting). That’ll be my guess for early picks until it doesn’t happen.

The Shaw write-ups seem solid although I am (probably unfairly) a little biased against early college middle infielders given their pretty abysmal record with that cohort since the divine selection of Pedroia in ‘04 and my namesake the year after.
 

soxhop411

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InsideTheParker

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Guys on ESPN say that the Sox, who pick next, were high on Matt Shaw, 2B, who just went to the Cubs. Kid is from Brimfield, MA.
Sox take Kyle Teel, Catcher from Univ. of VA.
 

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The Rays just picked a guy who looks exactly like every Rays player they've ever had