2023 NBA Playoffs

TripleOT

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Not sure where Milwaukee goes from here. Assuming Middleton picks up his 40M player option and Lopez re-signs, they’ll have the same core back with little in the way of draft capital and no clear path to adding talent in FA/trade.
I thought they fortified some holes in the back of their rotation, but didn’t get much from Ingles and Crowder. The Bucks fired on all cylinders in their win, but got blown out twice, and gave up big leads in the other two wins. Milwaukee They didn’t show the mental and physical toughness they showed in the playoffs last season.
 

Euclis20

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Watching that Butler game tying play again…man he just shoved the guy lol. Awesome.
Yeah he gave Connaughton a good stiff arm, but:

-Connaughton exaggerated the contact. Play defense.
-The Heat were screwed by that awful foul on Lowry. Overturning the call meant a jump ball which the Bucks won, but Lowry would have absolutely recovered the loose ball if the correct no call was made. Let's call it even.
 

Ed Hillel

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Yeah he gave Connaughton a good stiff arm, but:

-Connaughton exaggerated the contact. Play defense.
-The Heat were screwed by that awful foul on Lowry. Overturning the call meant a jump ball which the Bucks won, but Lowry would have absolutely recovered the loose ball if the correct no call was made. Let's call it even.
Free throws were 45-17 Bucs. It was more than even.

Had the Bucks used their challenge already?
 

Euclis20

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Free throws were 45-17 Bucs. It was more than even.

Had the Bucks used their challenge already?
I didn't see it, but the announcers mentioned the Bucks used it in the 1st quarter in an attempt to keep giannis out of foul trouble. Even if they had it, wouldn't have done them any good on that play (coaches can't challenge no-calls).
 

Havlicheck

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Jan 31, 2014
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But massive disadvantage with home court
Home court not meaning much in playoffs. See Milwaukee v Miami this year, golden state v Sacramento tonight, Celtics last night v Hawks, etc.

my money is on best player ‘s team: butler and Miami over Knicks

unfortunately, Booker and Suns over Jocik and Nuggets

definitely will be interesting

hoping for Brown and Celtics over Trae and Hawks. Too close to bet?
 

m0ckduck

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Was it predicted on here, or somewhere else, that the Bucks would win by 50, I don’t remember?
That was me. I'm the Coach Bud of prognosticators. (I didn't exactly predict they would win by 50, but I asked if anyone would be surprised by such a result).
Is this true? Seemed like Miami scared the shit out of most Celtics fans. Bill Simmons and Ken Tremendous had a podcast about it several weeks ago.
Speaking of Simmons, he was flogging the point for months about how the Cavs screwed up by giving up Kevin Love for nothing, that Love could have helped them, and could be a useful playoff piece for Miami. Well, he was right about that one, sick as I got of hearing about it.
I don’t think Miami is all that scary. They were a better team last season, and a Celtics squad that was not as good as this year’s team outplayed them.
Miami shot 47.6% (!!) from 3 through the first 4 games. (In game 5, 37..8%, so they probably graded out around 44% for the series) That, plus Butler and coaching can beat anyone. Doesn't seem sustainable though.They've gone from being one of the worst regular season offenses to the best offense in the playoffs. There's gotta be some regression around the corner.

Also, great as he is, Jimmy Butler is not 7'6". Some coach is going to do a better job at getting the ball of out of his hands and making the other Heat players beat them. I don't think CJM has the acumen for the job, so I'm going to go with Coach Thibs.

where was the Giannis-guarding-Butler adjustment anyway?
Free throws were 45-17 Bucs. It was more than even.

Had the Bucks used their challenge already?
it was a huge push-off by Butler but refs are never going to call that in that situation— too many things they are trying to track— and credit Jimmy for taking advantage.

The Lowry Middleton review was a good case study for instant replay. You could see the refs were thoroughly in "shook by the crowd" hometown mode and calling everything for Mil. In the old days, that would have been one of those games where Mil gets gifted enough calls to pull it out and we have to watch incensed YouTube videos breaking down the scandalous calls.
I think that if Giannis was 100% for the full series they probably win, but at the same time, I can't blame the loss on his injury (I don't know if that makes any sense). He may not have been 100% when he came back, but over these two games he averaged 32/15/8 and shot 53% from the field. Those are monster numbers, better than any playoff run he's ever had. His play wasn't the difference.
I don't know. He was clearly shook in the 4th and OT here— besides the missed FTs, he was throwing the ball all over the place. One can speculate that it was the injury getting his head, but how would anyone know? Also: small sample size, but it matters a tiny bit to me that the Heat were already cooking and up by 10 in G1 when Giannis got hurt. Had the Bucks been cruising early, it would be easier to string together a narrative that Mil was the better team but got thrown out of rhythm when their star got hurt.
 
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azsoxpatsfan

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May 23, 2014
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Among those still playing, Curry, Lebron, Jokic, Durant, possibly Morant, possibly Harden and possibly Fox
Maybe that’s it
It was asked in the excitement of watching the game (had to record it), but I would easily take Jimmy over Morant, and current Harden isn’t even close
 

jon abbey

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Whew, I finally caught up, both the late games were crazy!

NY does not match up well with MIL (Mitchell Robinson has trouble with stretch fives and Holiday is tough on Brunson), and of course Giannis, so I’m thrilled they’re out.

I think if both NY and MIA were healthy, they’re about even, but Herro being out and Randle being unknown makes it hard to predict. I do know someone could have made a lot of money in November betting that NY would have home court in the second round. :)
 

m0ckduck

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Not sure where Milwaukee goes from here. Assuming Middleton picks up his 40M player option and Lopez re-signs, they’ll have the same core back with little in the way of draft capital and no clear path to adding talent in FA/trade.
Most likely they run back the same core with a new coach and see what happens.

But, if they want to shake things up, they could at least think about dealing Holiday. He’s a great player, but the team has built “Bucks Culture” around a certain player profile— size, defense, not a lot of speed— and it’s clearly bogging down on offense in the playoffs. I could see them getting a great return for him and dealing the assets for a PG more in the Dame / Brunson mode. Someone who can kill it in ISO and in pick and roll with Giannis at end of games.

edit: to be more sane, though: upgrading the Grayson Allen spot with someone closer to CJ McCollum might be a better solution to same problem.
 
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jon abbey

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I still can't believe MIL blew huge late leads like that two games in a row.
 

Devizier

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With more parity than ever this year, the Bucks have every reason to try and run it back. It’s not like they haven’t been successful with this approach.
 

lovegtm

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I'm just glad we don't have to hear about the Bucks "championship pedigree" for another year. They're a fraudulent team that has choked in every playoffs except the one in which they got to face a 1-player Nets team and the Hawks (!) in the ECF.

Credit to Giannis for an utterly amazing 2021 Finals, and I don't think any title really has an asterisk, but Giannis and Bud have really coasted on the rep of that title and the regular season wins they pile up.
 

jon abbey

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Good job by Jae Crowder forcing his way out of PHX so that he could get a DNP-CD in the first round game his team was eliminated, while his old team is still going and could desperately use him (or any depth really).
 

lovegtm

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Good job by Jae Crowder forcing his way out of PHX so that he could get a DNP-CD in the first round game his team was eliminated, while his old team is still going and could desperately use him (or any depth really).
I'm old enough to remember when the Bucks had added two real difference makers at the deadline, in him and Ingles. Great depth for an already dominant 1 seed; get ready for a playoff run!
 

benhogan

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I'm just glad we don't have to hear about the Bucks "championship pedigree" for another year. They're a fraudulent team that has choked in every playoffs except the one in which they got to face a 1-player Nets team and the Hawks (!) in the ECF.

Credit to Giannis for an utterly amazing 2021 Finals, and I don't think any title really has an asterisk, but Giannis and Bud have really coasted on the rep of that title and the regular season wins they pile up.
Butler should get his due, but the Spoelstra vs Bud coaching mismatch was on full display.

3 guys for the Heat fouled out with Giannis launching himself into everyone.
 

the moops

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I dont know whe he subbed out Lopez and put in Connaughton. Couldn't you just plant Lopez at the rim, and switch everything? I could see if they were putting in an actual quick defender, but Connaughton?
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Whew, I finally caught up, both the late games were crazy!

NY does not match up well with MIL (Mitchell Robinson has trouble with stretch fives and Holiday is tough on Brunson), and of course Giannis, so I’m thrilled they’re out.

I think if both NY and MIA were healthy, they’re about even, but Herro being out and Randle being unknown makes it hard to predict. I do know someone could have made a lot of money in November betting that NY would have home court in the second round. :)
The Coach Thibs redemption storyline is strong as well, if not the same level tactician as Spo he presents a fairly close coaching matchup to the Heat (without the in-game blind spots that Coach Bud has).
 

TripleOT

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People complain about CJM as Budenholzer forgot he had a TO at the end of regulation to advance the ball w 2.1 sec on the clock.
There was .5 sec left on the clock after Butler threw in the game tying shot. Bud still should have called a TO, advanced the ball, and run an oob lob to Giannis. Inexcusable mistake if he actually did have a timeout remaining, and the graphic was correct.
 

TripleOT

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Losing a close out game at home when up 16 with 10 minutes left is inexcusable. Two seasons in a row where the Bucks failed miserably in what would be their last game in their arena. No excuse this season regarding Middleton. Deer in headlights two seasons in a row from the “champ.”
 

jezza1918

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Losing a close out game at home when up 16 with 10 minutes left is inexcusable. Two seasons in a row where the Bucks failed miserably in what would be their last game in their arena. No excuse this season regarding Middleton. Deer in headlights two seasons in a row from the “champ.”
I apppreicate your use of quotation marks around "champ." Because games like the last two Bucks losses always make me question sports on a philosophical (possibly not the right word, best I can come up with on 4 hours of angry post bruins sleep) level. So bear with me...but so much success in sports is just straight up chance/luck/whatever you want to call it. Giannis has a title, Tatum does not. So you can't take that away from him...but at the same time, Giannis won that title because Harden & Irving got injured. If they don't, Giannis' post season track record would be viewed the same way as Embiid's, failure. On the flipside, if the Celts go on to win this year it will be in large part because they got to face a banged up Embiid and either the Knicks or Heat in the ECF. Now, Giannis was able to take advantage of his situation a couple years ago, Tatum & co. have a long way to go. Ultimately I just thing we give too much credit to these guys when the win, and too much blame when they lose...when unless your name is Curry or Lebron so so much of winning & losing is chance. (I realize a therapist might tell me Im just trying to convince myself of all that on the off chance the celtics and bruins blow 3-1 leads in the opening rounds. But isn't that what this place is for? De facto sports therapy).
 

TripleOT

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I apppreicate your use of quotation marks around "champ." Because games like the last two Bucks losses always make me question sports on a philosophical (possibly not the right word, best I can come up with on 4 hours of angry post bruins sleep) level. So bear with me...but so much success in sports is just straight up chance/luck/whatever you want to call it. Giannis has a title, Tatum does not. So you can't take that away from him...but at the same time, Giannis won that title because Harden & Irving got injured. If they don't, Giannis' post season track record would be viewed the same way as Embiid's, failure. On the flipside, if the Celts go on to win this year it will be in large part because they got to face a banged up Embiid and either the Knicks or Heat in the ECF. Now, Giannis was able to take advantage of his situation a couple years ago, Tatum & co. have a long way to go. Ultimately I just thing we give too much credit to these guys when the win, and too much blame when they lose...when unless your name is Curry or Lebron so so much of winning & losing is chance. (I realize a therapist might tell me Im just trying to convince myself of all that on the off chance the celtics and bruins blow 3-1 leads in the opening rounds. But isn't that what this place is for? De facto sports therapy).
If KD was a sneaker a half size smaller in Game 7 versus the Bucks, he would have vanquished them singlehandedly. In the Finals, the Suns clearly were not ready for prime time.

If TL didn’t get hurt, or Brad added a tiny bit of additional trade deadline/buyout market bench help, the Cs would be in repeat mode.

Ifs don’t matter, though. I’m going to be disappointed if this Celtics team continues to make the mistakes that allowed Banner 18 to slip away. They have the best roster in the NBA. It’s time to show out.
 

jezza1918

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If KD was a sneaker a half size smaller in Game 7 versus the Bucks, he would have vanquished them singlehandedly. In the Finals, the Suns clearly were not ready for prime time.

If TL didn’t get hurt, or Brad added a tiny bit of additional trade deadline/buyout market bench help, the Cs would be in repeat mode.

Ifs don’t matter, though. I’m going to be disappointed if this Celtics team continues to make the mistakes that allowed Banner 18 to slip away. They have the best roster in the NBA. It’s time to show out.
As to your bolded, I completely agree. I think another, simpler way of what I was trying to say in my earlier rant is that there are a lot of if's that could lead to them not winning banner 18 that wouldn't be because of making the same mistakes we all discuss here. And that, to me anyway, wouldn't be as disappointing.
ps somehow I totally forgot about that kd foot on the line shot, what a sliding doors sports moment.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I dont know whe he subbed out Lopez and put in Connaughton. Couldn't you just plant Lopez at the rim, and switch everything? I could see if they were putting in an actual quick defender, but Connaughton?
Bud was making this substitution as if there were :06 or more on the clock where Miami could run a shooter away from the less mobile Lopez. That is logical. What isn’t logical is making this substitution with :02 on the clock when the defense only has one pass to defend after the initial inbound. You can have the long Lopez defending the inbound play while still being able to remain attached to the inbounder for a return pass.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There was .5 sec left on the clock after Butler threw in the game tying shot. Bud still should have called a TO, advanced the ball, and run an oob lob to Giannis. Inexcusable mistake if he actually did have a timeout remaining, and the graphic was correct.
Right. I was confusing the :02 with the Bucks inbounding. All the more reason. Freakin crazy this occurs at the NBA level in 2023.
 

TripleOT

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Right. I was confusing the :02 with the Bucks inbounding. All the more reason. Freakin crazy this occurs at the NBA level in 2023.
Considering the amount of assistant coaches, that should never happen. Every staff should have one coach devoted to final possession matters.
 

m0ckduck

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Jul 20, 2005
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NBATV analyst is dead-on (somewhat paraphrasing): ‘Milwaukee won’t be having nightmares about Jimmy Butler. You have to be asleep to have a nightmare, and they’re not gonna sleep for three months’
That was so awful for Bucks fans, I noticed myself feeling nauseated on their behalf even though I wasn’t rooting for them. It got me wondering where this would rank within the context of awful Boston losses. It’s not up there with Buckner/Grady Little, since the franchise recently won a ring. The closest I could think of is games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS from a Yankee fan’s perspective, since it involves the same quality of horrible script repeating itself two games in a row.
 

bosockboy

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That was so awful for Bucks fans, I noticed myself feeling nauseated on their behalf even though I wasn’t rooting for them. It got me wondering where this would rank within the context of awful Boston losses. It’s not up there with Buckner/Grady Little, since the franchise recently won a ring. The closest I could think of is games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS from a Yankee fan’s perspective, since it involves the same quality of horrible script repeating itself two games in a row.
Well, if Butler hit that 3 last year there’s your answer.