the q about rodgers is will gb be ok with eating 60 mil in $ rodgers for 1-2 years max couild turn the jets from 7-10 to 11-12 wins and cost bill the shula rec because i douct mr kraft wouild be ok with 2 7-10 or worse seasons because getting aaron means u will be 3-1 or 4-0 aga ne the next 2 years
2023 QB Carousel
- Thread starter trekfan55
- Start date
i would rather go full court press on Brady. He just makes sense in too many ways for the Jets.
Miami makes too much sense. Maybe we’ll get him. Crazy Aaron still has it physically.
He costs A LOT though. In terms of salary and compensation for the Packers. Plus he’s kind of a despicable human being (fake vax card, rants on the woke mob and cancel culture…)
Unless he’s out there doing violent crimes, I don’t really give a shit. I want a QB that can sling it. I’ll drink concussion water if Brady QB’s the Jets.
I would rather exhaust every shot at getting Brady before giving up any compensation for Rodgers, unless we can get him without giving up the 23 1st. I think my preferred list would be Brady, Carr, Lamar, Rodgers. Not saying any of them would be bad choices, this is just my personal preference
I'll add a list of free agents and potential trade candidates:
Free Agents:
Brady (100% leaving)
Lamar Jackson (franchise tag on its way)
Jimmy G (100% leaving)
Daniel Jones (could get an exclusive rights tag if the Giants want to keep him)
Geno Smith (does Seattle let someone else pay him?)
Heinicke (hope it works out for him)
Trade bait or cut candidates:
Carr (will quickly be cut if no trade available)
Rodgers (probably less than 50/50 chance, but smoke, fire, etc.)
Tannehill
Matt Ryan (likely cut)
And the Wheel of Backups:
Mike White
Mayfield
Darnold
Bridgewater
Brissett
Keenum
Huntley
Stidham
Minshew
Flacco
Several others
Funny thing about Brady is that assuming he plays somewhere besides TB next season he will most likely have the highest cap hit on two teams in 2023. He is going to count 35M against the TB cap next season unless he retires or returns to TB, neither of which seem likely.
I truly don't get the Brady or Rodgers to SF talk. Sure, they are great QBs and all but SF has an incredible team and is in the NFCCG no less, under Brock Purdy. They have a lot of money to pay soon as rookie contracts start ending and can enjoy having 2 good QBs at low cost for a while.
I think either Heinecke or Brissett is in the wrong category, there is a pretty good case that Jacoby's better than Heineke at essentially the same age.
I don't think they do anything, but that's really the case FOR a move is that they have a really good team that they want to win Superbowl's with, and they have the cap room to slide in Brady or Rodgers for 2 years to make 2 runs as favorites, then those guys come off right when you have to make decisions on aging stars (Trent Williams will be 37 and his contract will be at the cut or restructure years, Kittle 32 and in the last year, Armstead a FA, Ward a FA, etc.) It's really a team built around a window of 2022-2024, so if they can get a QB upgrade it would be interesting. Problem is... I don't think they see Brady as a big enough upgrade for his likely salary demands, and while Rodgers is a great fit with his post-trade salary, I don't think they have the assets to get it done (unless someone will give them a 1st for Lance).
Rodgers had a worse 2022 than Brady by pretty much every measure, if Brady isn't enough of an upgrade over Purdy for his lower salary demands, why would Rodgers be one?
also the $100M is if they cut him. a pre-june trade his cap hit is only $40M.
I think he's clearly better in terms of what he has left physically, played with much less talent, but yeah there are concerns. Though part of it is I misread his remaining salary... I thought he was much cheaper than he is because I thought his $30M in bonus next year was signing, but it's roster so.... yeah risky.
Schefter said that Packers won’t trade him inside NFC (of course that could change)
View: https://twitter.com/patmcafeeshow/status/1617935008072884224?s=46&t=260yFOMUwd4I8ENvMD-OUw
Two first round picks for Rodgers? They are on dream street. They'd have to send 2 first rounders to me to get me to take Rodgers off their hands, especially at that salary. Glad to see he's not going to the NFC. But why drop a rumor that eliminates half the league as a trade partner? It's just dumb all around.
I get that they are the best QB’s if they’re generation, but are there any concerns that neither Rodgers nor Brady was particularly good this year? Are they still top tier NFL QB’s?
Certainly never going to bet against either, but Father Time does win eventually and there seemed to be warning signs about both players this season.
Certainly never going to bet against either, but Father Time does win eventually and there seemed to be warning signs about both players this season.
This is where I'm at. I think Rodgers is a better bet though. He seemed to be dealing with the thumb injury for a while and as it started to heal up he looked better down the stretch. Brady, as far as I know, was healthy and was throwing to better WRs, and he looked like he'd taken a significant step back. I wouldn't give up a ton to get either one though.
Brady’s line was a lot worse this year than the prior 2. Rodgers looked good for a guy that hurt his hand against…I think it was Giants in London. They are both still good.
At receiver, sure. Certainly not in terms of OL, running game and play calling. Didn't think Brady looked any worse physically last year than he did in 2020/21, though he has a much higher risk of dropping off.
They're both still perfectly fine QBs. I haven't said otherwise. I simply said that they aren't top tier anymore, and they're not worth giving up multiple first rounders (in Rodgers' case) or blowing up your cap (in both cases).
I have not seen great reporting on the cap implications of an Aaron Rodgers deal. It would be absolutely massive for the acquiring team. They have tricks to spread it out over multiple years, but it's still a huge number.
As I understand it, a trade would accelerate about $40 million on to the Packers' cap. If they waited until after June 1 to do the trade, they would push off some of that money to 2024. I don't know their current cap situation, but I assume that taking on a large accelerated hit would require them to clear space.
As for the acquiring team, they immediately take on a $60 million cap hit for 2023. They could choose to apportion that over 4 years, at $15 million per year. But, $60 million is $60 million. As a practical matter, though, they are really taking him on for 2024 as well, at another $47 million. They have to decide before the 2024 season, and I think his contract for 2024 becomes guaranteed quickly. The reason I say that as a practical matter they have to keep him on, it's because if they don't, they basically accelerate the $40+ million that they spread out over 4 years. If Rodgers were to retire, though, they get out of the $47 million. But he will never retire when he could earn another $47 million for one more season of work, I wouldn't think.
So, the bottom line is that an acquiring team takes on a $107 million cap hit for two years of Aaron Rodgers. They could manage it to spread it over a few years, but $107 million is $107 million and so you're mortgaging your future. I can't imagine taking on a cap hit of over $50 million per year for a QB and giving up two first round draft picks.
As I understand it, a trade would accelerate about $40 million on to the Packers' cap. If they waited until after June 1 to do the trade, they would push off some of that money to 2024. I don't know their current cap situation, but I assume that taking on a large accelerated hit would require them to clear space.
As for the acquiring team, they immediately take on a $60 million cap hit for 2023. They could choose to apportion that over 4 years, at $15 million per year. But, $60 million is $60 million. As a practical matter, though, they are really taking him on for 2024 as well, at another $47 million. They have to decide before the 2024 season, and I think his contract for 2024 becomes guaranteed quickly. The reason I say that as a practical matter they have to keep him on, it's because if they don't, they basically accelerate the $40+ million that they spread out over 4 years. If Rodgers were to retire, though, they get out of the $47 million. But he will never retire when he could earn another $47 million for one more season of work, I wouldn't think.
So, the bottom line is that an acquiring team takes on a $107 million cap hit for two years of Aaron Rodgers. They could manage it to spread it over a few years, but $107 million is $107 million and so you're mortgaging your future. I can't imagine taking on a cap hit of over $50 million per year for a QB and giving up two first round draft picks.
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How about…
Dak Prescott to Jets for #13 pick
Dallas sends #13 and #26 to Green Bay for Rodgers
A fresh start for Dak. Rodgers and McCarthy reunited. Packers use picks to get weapons for Jordan Love.
Dak Prescott to Jets for #13 pick
Dallas sends #13 and #26 to Green Bay for Rodgers
A fresh start for Dak. Rodgers and McCarthy reunited. Packers use picks to get weapons for Jordan Love.
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Dak has a no trade clause and pre-June 1 trades of Dak or Rodgers would result in sizable negative net cap hits for both GB and DAL.
I don’t think a trade involving 2023 picks for either player is realistic.
Doesn't Rodgers hate McCarthy? I know Rodgers hates everybody anyway. Hard to know for sure but I thought that bridge was burned.
Apparently, the Packers are already about $20 million in the hole on 2023 cap space, if OTC is to be believed. So, to trade Rodgers pre-June 1, they have to clear that, plus more, with no easy options. Aaron Jones and Bakhitari can be restructured or cut, but then they start to run out of options fast.
If they trade him after June 1, they get a 2023 cap savings. But at a considerable cost in future years. This is one of the reasons that some of the reporting on this is so superficial -- you see things like "if they wait until June 1, they get $15 million in cap relief," with no further explanation. But you always have to pay the piper eventually.
Anyway, he's going to be a Packer for 2023 and 2024. This is all just noise.
If they trade him after June 1, they get a 2023 cap savings. But at a considerable cost in future years. This is one of the reasons that some of the reporting on this is so superficial -- you see things like "if they wait until June 1, they get $15 million in cap relief," with no further explanation. But you always have to pay the piper eventually.
Anyway, he's going to be a Packer for 2023 and 2024. This is all just noise.
I assume they think that the only thing standing between them and Jordan Love cruising to next year's Super Bowl is Aaron Rodgers on the Commanders, or something.
Very odd.
As a Jets fan, this nauseates me. Dak has to be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the game.
I also think he's overrated. On the other hand, I just looked up the list of Jets QBs to see how many were better than right now's version of Dak..... there aren't many (maybe any).
Here’s is the over the cap article that had Ayahuasca’s numbers
https://overthecap.com/the-salary-cap-impact-of-trading-for-aaron-rodgers/amp
https://overthecap.com/the-salary-cap-impact-of-trading-for-aaron-rodgers/amp
Oh no question he’s better than anyone they have but I feel like they’re far better off going with the list of names known to be available: Carr, Rodgers, Brady, Jackson (if he is actually available). Prescott.. please no!
This is where I am too, but when Rich Eisen asked Bert Breer about potential Brady destinations on his show today, Breer mentioned SF first. I don't get it, but there's enough chatter in the air that I'm going to stop considering it impossible.
SF's front office doesn't leak though - similar to Bloom. Remember all the hand wringing over who they were going to take at #3 leading up to the actual draft? IIRC it was Mac Jones up until the pick was in. I don't trust any reporting regarding their inner thoughts and think that the far most likely scenario is keeping two bargain QBs to allow the money to be spent elsewhere.
This is where I am too.
I was screaming every time people said Mac Jones (at the time he had bigger expectations but not for the haul the Niners gave to trade up to pick # 3). And yet the FO kept it quiet and drafted their guy.
From several sites I see they have about 12MM in cap space, and they still need to negotiate with McGlinchey and Ward (plus whatever other deals they can make) plus sign some players and their draft picks. How much can they realistically offer Brady?
Plus all indications are that they want to lock up Bosa long-term this offseason before turning to Aiyuk. They could offer Brady a fraction of what the Raiders or another team would likely put on the table. I think McGlinchey is likely gone.
I think the idea may be that while the Purdy run is super impressive, he's still not a proven commodity. If they stand pat with Purdy and Lance and Purdy comes back to earth and Lance's stalled development caps his ceiling and they end up flaming out then that could shut their SB window.
It's entirely possible they'll wind up being wrong, but Simmons and Peter Schrager seemed surprisingly confident in Rodgers to the Jets in Simmons's latest podcast.
Schefty reporting that the Dolphins won't pursue Brady. That's interesting.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/10o86xw/schefter_even_if_tom_brady_were_to_rerun_for_the/
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/10o86xw/schefter_even_if_tom_brady_were_to_rerun_for_the/
So today is the day when the Franchise Tag allocations can start. Going to be very interesting to see what Baltimore does with Lamar. As I understand it they can tag him with either the Exclusive or Non-Exclusive cap, and they work like this:
Exclusive - Not official yet but as it stands this carries a 2023 salary of around $45M. This number should drop due to restructuring/resignings of various QBs. Lamar would not be free to speak with other teams without the Ravens permission.
Non-Exclusive - $32.4M for 2023. Lamar would be free to sign with any team that owns its' original 1st round pick in 2023 & 2024. The Ravens would have the right to match that exact offer, or else receive those two 1st round picks (or negotiate different terms, I think).
If it were my call I'd tag him with the non-exclusive version. I don't think any team is giving him a five year fully guaranteed contract at Watson levels, which is what he's reportedly seeking. So any offer he signs for is likely going to be something better for the team than this stalemate he's in. If you go with the exclusive tag then he's in for around $40M this year and you're back here again in 2024, and if you tag him then it'll end up being something like a two year $95M contract. And if I'm wrong and he does get a contract from another team that I'm not comfortable with then I'd take those two 1st and move along. But with him being his own agent and the pool of teams looking for a QB that own their original '23 (and '24) 1sts being relatively small that's a gamble I'd be willing to take.
Exclusive - Not official yet but as it stands this carries a 2023 salary of around $45M. This number should drop due to restructuring/resignings of various QBs. Lamar would not be free to speak with other teams without the Ravens permission.
Non-Exclusive - $32.4M for 2023. Lamar would be free to sign with any team that owns its' original 1st round pick in 2023 & 2024. The Ravens would have the right to match that exact offer, or else receive those two 1st round picks (or negotiate different terms, I think).
If it were my call I'd tag him with the non-exclusive version. I don't think any team is giving him a five year fully guaranteed contract at Watson levels, which is what he's reportedly seeking. So any offer he signs for is likely going to be something better for the team than this stalemate he's in. If you go with the exclusive tag then he's in for around $40M this year and you're back here again in 2024, and if you tag him then it'll end up being something like a two year $95M contract. And if I'm wrong and he does get a contract from another team that I'm not comfortable with then I'd take those two 1st and move along. But with him being his own agent and the pool of teams looking for a QB that own their original '23 (and '24) 1sts being relatively small that's a gamble I'd be willing to take.
I think that there's a real risk that some team shoots the moon on him, and 2x FRP is not a great consolation prize.
Either way, I'm glad to see Harbaugh suffer.
It will hurt near term they trade him, but I think Baltimore might be better off moving on now than signing Lamar to a big contract.
Maybe. While the details matter (low 1st round vs high 1st round) I think my math is basically that two 1st round picks/no QB is better than not having those picks but having Lamar at $225M guaranteed for five years.
I agree with you guys. Chances are good that Lamar's contract is an unholy albatross in a couple of years. Either way, Harbaugh suffers. Question is whether it's the next two years or the few after that.
So the first domino falls (after Brady retiring at least):
Saints: Carr
What's left?
Jimmy G
Rodgers
Lamar
Tannehill
Geno
Daniel Jones
My wild guesses without much research and will definitely be very wrong:
Jimmy G (Jets)
Rodgers (retires)
Lamar (Falcons)
Tannehill (Bucs)
Geno (Franchise tag -- Seahawks)
Jones (re-signs Giants)
Who am I missing? Who needs qbs?
Saints: Carr
What's left?
Jimmy G
Rodgers
Lamar
Tannehill
Geno
Daniel Jones
My wild guesses without much research and will definitely be very wrong:
Jimmy G (Jets)
Rodgers (retires)
Lamar (Falcons)
Tannehill (Bucs)
Geno (Franchise tag -- Seahawks)
Jones (re-signs Giants)
Who am I missing? Who needs qbs?