2024-2025 MiLB Offseason

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,992
I think Campbell will be easier to extend. Anthony is certainly aware of what mid-20s free agents are getting paid these days.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Are we leaving the extension talk to the new post on the big board? It's a fascinating topic and for now it's off and running there without too much negativity. Also it's a spending subject.

The fascinating part is if you had to pick one, would you extend Anthony or Campbell? It does sound like the Campbell evaluations are more bullish on him succeeding, and the ceiling part is a tossup.
New threads are always good. Feel free to start one here as they are all minor leaguers
 

Merkle's Boner

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2011
4,241
Am I being crazy/too cautious to want to see KC do in 2025 something similar to what he did last year. It just seems like there is so much helium to his status, and scouts clearly missed something pretty major with him, that I am much more hesitant with him than Roman or Marcelo.
 

LoLsapien

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 5, 2022
459
Are we leaving the extension talk to the new post on the big board? It's a fascinating topic and for now it's off and running there without too much negativity. Also it's a spending subject.

The fascinating part is if you had to pick one, would you extend Anthony or Campbell? It does sound like the Campbell evaluations are more bullish on him succeeding, and the ceiling part is a tossup.
I can start the threads but don't know how to move posts
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
3) I've never once believed the playoffs are a crapshoot and I don't think most good GMs do either. I talked about this a lot with @JM3 last year (hope he comes back to the main board) but I think what we landed on is that the playoffs are a poker game. They are played against other teams and not simply odds. A good GM can identify traits that generally make a team more or less successful in the playoffs, and this is where a good manager actually comes in to play. Sure, sometimes the cards just will not land in your favor and there is nothing that can be done about that, but it's also not just blind luck.
The bolded is not gonna happen.

But I generally agree with our joint analogy. The playoffs are kind of like a two-table short-handed tournament with a blind structure that goes up quickly & the teams with better records start with a slightly larger stack.
 

AlNipper49

Huge Member
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 3, 2001
46,032
Mtigawi
Just use the main board one. The one here was low-effort. But if you choose to do otherwise that’s fine as well.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
View: https://twitter.com/RobertStock6/status/1868363210363146260


View: https://twitter.com/RobertStock6/status/1868363219703927204


Stock appears to be a 35 y/o pitching coach in waiting. He last pitched in MLB in 2021. He pitched 13.1 innings of his 72.2 inning MLB career for the 2020 Red Sox (4.73 ERA).

Despite the 1.60 ERA, strikeout crown & 1.07 WHIP, Stock only averaged 8.3 k/9 & 3.9 bb/9 in 84.1 IP in the Mexican Pacific Winter League.

Stock also threw 98.2 innings in the regular independent Mexican League season with a 3.38 ERA, 9.5 k/9, 3.7 bb/9, 1.52 WHIP.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
33,174
Alamogordo

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
Those were 3 of Puello's 11 PAs that season. He ended up 3 for 8 with 2 walks & a 154 wRC+. He did poorly in Worcester & in Syracuse the next year, then did badly in both the Mexican & Dominican Winter Leagues, & that was the end.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
I don't really buy into the "the projections screw the Red Sox over" stuff. Sure, there are some outlier weird things that are unlikely to happen, but I'm sure that's not just the case for the Red Sox.

But regardless...the projections say the Red Sox have a good chance of being a playoff team? Here's a Fangraphs one which has the Red Sox as the 2nd Wild Card team:

Depth Charts - Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

Yankees .536*
Rangers .525*
Astros .522
Red Sox .520
Twins .518*
Orioles .516
Mariners .510
Tigers .504
Royals .504
Rays .504
Blue Jays .492
Guardians .478
Angels .472
A's .470
White Sox .389

All these odds are going to be from BetMGM & they all pretty much indicate a consensus that the Red Sox are expected to be the 4th or 5th best team in the AL...

American League Winner odds:
Yankees +300
Orioles +575
Astros +600
Red Sox +1000
Rangers +1000
Mariners +1100
Guardians +1200
Twins +1200
Tigers +1300
Royals +1600
Rays +2200
Blue Jays +4000
A's +6600
Angels +8000
White Sox +25000

& o/u AL win totals:
Yankees 93.5*
Orioles 89.5
Astros 87.5*
Rangers 85.5
Red Sox 84.5
Guardians 84.5*
Tigers 83.5
Twins 83.5
Mariners 83.5
Royals 82.5
Rays 80.5
Blue Jays 76.5
Angels 71.5
A's 70.5
White Sox 50.5

AL Playoff Odds (Yes - with the juice -110 = 50/50):
Yankees -400
Orioles -275
Astros -150
Red Sox -135
Rangers -115
Guardians -115
Mariners -105
Tigers +120
Twins +120
Royals +130
Rays +260
Blue Jays +300
A's +600
Angels +700
White Sox +3000

This is off topic, but since I'm on the app, some other Red Sox odds...

AL MVP odds:
#1 Judge +300
#2 Witt +450
#9 Devers +2200
#10 Duran +3500
T27 Casas +10000
T37 Wilyer +12500


AL Cy Young odds:
#1 Skubal +400
#2 Crochet +700
T16 Houck +3500
T23 Buehler +5000
T40 Kutter +15000
T40 Bello +15000


AL Manager of the Year:
#1 Hinch +300
#2 Cash +400
#3 Kotsay +600
T4 Cora +700
T4 Wilson +700
#6 Bochy +1100

MLB Home Run Leader:
#1 Judge +300
#2 Shohei +700
T17 Devers +4000
T26 Casas +5500


MLB Strikeout Leader:
#1 Skenes +400
#2 Crochet +550
#3 Skubal +700
T47 Kutter +10000
T67 Buehler +15000
T67 Houck +15000


Other random Red Sox lines:
Duran o/u HR 18.5
Devers o/u HR 30.5
Crochet o/u K 212.5
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,992
Projections do screw the Red Sox over. They don't only screw the Red Sox over but they're really bad at doing stuff with running and defense, and generally shaky with people that have missed time or made changes or don't have long track records, and that all just happens to affect us more than most teams. Corbin Carroll and EDLC are also out there getting cut off at the knees, but their treatment of Duran is especially suspect.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
Jen McCaffrey Athletic article on Rookie Development Camp. Interviewed Roman & KCamp.

“I don’t think any of it matters to be completely honest,” Anthony said of his No. 1 status. “I haven’t done anything in the big leagues yet. I’m just looking forward to getting there and helping the team win.”
“I definitely feel like it feels a lot closer since I’m actually in Boston now,” Campbell said of his impending debut. “This is my second time in Boston, so I think being here definitely makes it feel a little closer. And it feels like it’s actually right around the corner.”
KCamp on earning a spot on the MLB roster...

“That’s the goal, that’s been the goal the whole time to compete,” Campbell said. “I love competing.”
& Roman:

“I’m going into spring training with that mentality, trying to win a job, and there’s really no other goal for me. I feel ready,” he said. “I’m doing everything I can. I trust in the front office, and trust they’ll make the right decision.”
Roman on Casas:

“I love Triston. He’s a good friend of mine,” Anthony said. “Every time we’re here, we go out to eat, spend some time with each other. We’ve gotten close. It’s great. It’s just great to go around and see some of these guys, learn from them, and see how they go about their day-to-day work. So anytime he invites me down there I go. I’ll try to get down there again with him before we go back to Fort Myers.”
& Casas on Roman:

“Roman’s in a really good spot, physically and mentally,” Casas said over the weekend at Fenway Fest. “He’s probably 45 minutes north of where I live (in Florida), so I’ve got to hit with him a couple times as well in the offseason. He’s been checking in with me as well.”
Cora on Big MAC:

“I want to see the kids play,” Cora said last weekend. “I saw a few of them the last few years, but Campbell and Marcelo and Roman, I want to see them play more.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6062197/2025/01/15/red-sox-kristian-campbell-roman-anthony-spring-outlook/
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
Out of all the exciting MiLB stuff going on this off season, dual threat Conrad Cason is up there.

The Red Sox' plan is for two-way prospect Conrad Cason to pitch and be a position player right away this season.

They aren’t going to begin with one and then add the other as the 18-year-old’s first year of pro ball progresses. He’ll begin his 2025 season doing both whether that’s at Low-A Salem or later when the Florida Complex League begins.
“There’s definitely a plan. I don’t know if there’s really a (way to) ease your way into being a two-way player,” director of player development Brian Abraham said. “We’ll have him do both. He’s preparing this offseason to be a position player and pitcher. I think the biggest thing is managing his workload on both sides.

“You can’t just take a full load of a pitcher and full load of a position player (for him),” Abraham added. “So I think balancing that is really valuable. But our pitching group and our hitting group has worked really well together as well as our defensive group because of the shoulder piece (keeping his throwing shoulder strong) to manage his workload.”
Conrad was drafted last June at just 17. He turned 18 in August and so he was on the young side for his draft class. It’s likely he begins in the FCL but one person in the organization said he “wouldn’t be shocked” if he starts in Salem.
“A lot of power. A fastball that reaches the upper-90s,” Abraham said. “I think the secondary stuff is still a work in progress. The secondary stuff is all about feel and consistency. So I think we’ll kind of work our way through that. ... But a guy who’s fast-twitch, ton of power — it comes off on his bat as well. The ability to impact the baseball. A big focus for him this offseason was adding strength, adding weight ... to impact the baseball when he swings and then when he’s throwing the baseball as well, which he did. He’s added some really good weight. There’s still some time to go before spring training so we’re hoping for a little bit more. But again, we’re really excited about the progress he’s made and the chance for him to impact the baseball on both sides of the ball.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2025/01/red-sox-two-way-prospect-upper-90s-fb-power-bat-to-do-both-right-away.html
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
Both Yovanny Cruz & Sean Newcomb are new news to me.

View: https://twitter.com/Joe_Weil/status/1880271765706059992


We've talked about the other 3. Cruz was in the Cubs org with Breslow before going to the Padres AA last year. I would kind of expect him in AA again considering how crowded AAA looks right now.

Pitched 25.2 innings last year with a lot of strikeouts (10.6 per 9) & a lot of walks (4.9 per 9), 4.55 ERA (4.59 xFIP).

View: https://twitter.com/Miller_MiLB/status/1560423079750373379


View: https://twitter.com/CubsCentral08/status/1540494088813912064


View: https://twitter.com/robdeleonjr/status/1782243175257588107


Some interesting stuff if he can refine it.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
Newcomb, 31, started his career as a starter for the Braves in 2017, but hasn't really pitched much since being an active member of their bullpen in 2019.

Threw a very hittable fastball 47% of the time last year. Seems like the kind of guy who would benefit from a refined pitch mix.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sean-newcomb-656794?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Was hoping Pat would have a thread up about how exactly he suggests doing it but alas.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1880273960031658384


View: https://twitter.com/NBCSAthletics/status/1700699860922421687
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
Sean is my cousin’s kid. Potential is awesome. Ability to throw strikes less so.
It's interesting how many high-walk guys they sign. We shall see if they have a plan for it.

Pretty cool he's going home.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
View: https://twitter.com/tomisphere/status/1825660397107433874


Comparing the AA numbers of Kristian Campbell to those of Mookie Betts one last time. These are Betts' numbers for the entirety of his time in AA.

The numbers are remarkably similar. The BAbip's are closer now, a good sign for Campbell.

The strikeout numbers are also quite different, but only because Betts' were absurdly low. Campbell's 14.9% strikeout rate is actually very good - it's lower than that of 94% of his peers in the Eastern League this year (9th lowest of 148 with at least 150 PA's).

Campbell's OBP gets a bump from getting hit by pitches significantly more. That could be just luck, or it could be how he stands at the plate - time will tell.

But overall, just very similar numbers. I'm hoping to see Campbell promoted soon, but it'll probably have to wait until some complementary other roster move becomes possible.
View: https://twitter.com/tomisphere/status/1827884927855329612


View: https://twitter.com/tommycassell44/status/1879218824588980601


View: https://twitter.com/Thomas_Carrieri/status/1827158103608938747
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,992
Cora made the "JD Drew with energy" comp, and Anthony himself said Yelich and Bellinger.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,116
Interesting. Thanks - I think most of us would take him turning into Yelich even if it’s “just” the Miami version.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
19,677
Top 50 of what exactly? Because Spencer Strider is below Zach Eflin. Is this just a 2025 only forecast, i.e. expected WAR?
My process consisted of three major components:

Production

I considered how the pitcher has produced throughout their career, weighing the 2024 as the most indicative of their true talent. I focused on metrics such as strikeout rate, walk rate, FIP, GB%, and tjStuff+. If a pitcher has been productive throughout their career, there is a strong likelihood that they will continue to have success. Analysing metrics that have strong predictive power, such K-BB%, helped separate pitchers from each other.

Projection

Projections are extremely important for this task. We already know how a pitcher has produced throughout their career, but we are concerned with how they will produce next season. Projections give us a good baseline for structuring these rankings. I decided to use Steamer Projections (via Fangraphs) as my projection system thanks to its reliability and accessibility.

Risk vs Reward

Ranking pitchers feels like a fool’s errand given the randomness of injuries, including the uptick of Tommy John Surgeries in recent years. With that being said, I tried my best to consider injury risks and punished pitchers who have struggled to stay healthy throughout their career. Volume is paramount to production, and I tended to side with pitchers who had a higher likelihood for tossing more innings over those who may be more dominant on a per-inning basis if their production was similar. At a certain point, some pitchers present a ceiling so tantalizing that the risk of missed time is worth the reward.

Some more notes:

* I only considered pitchers who are expected to play in the 2025 MLB Season and are (or have been) signed to an MLB contract in their career. This consideration really only bars Roki Sasaki, who would rank in the Top 20. His exclusion stemmed mostly from his lack of Steamer projection.

* I laid out my reasoning for each pitcher. Please read through this article.

* I am happy to discuss any pitcher on (or off) this list. Please be respectful.

These rankings are subjective!
https://tjstats.substack.com/p/mlb-top-50-starting-pitchers-for?open=false#§undefined