Yeah, if he bets on his own talent, it's risky but the reward is big too.I think Campbell will be easier to extend. Anthony is certainly aware of what mid-20s free agents are getting paid these days.
New threads are always good. Feel free to start one here as they are all minor leaguersAre we leaving the extension talk to the new post on the big board? It's a fascinating topic and for now it's off and running there without too much negativity. Also it's a spending subject.
The fascinating part is if you had to pick one, would you extend Anthony or Campbell? It does sound like the Campbell evaluations are more bullish on him succeeding, and the ceiling part is a tossup.
I can start the threads but don't know how to move postsAre we leaving the extension talk to the new post on the big board? It's a fascinating topic and for now it's off and running there without too much negativity. Also it's a spending subject.
The fascinating part is if you had to pick one, would you extend Anthony or Campbell? It does sound like the Campbell evaluations are more bullish on him succeeding, and the ceiling part is a tossup.
Gotta talk to @CR67dream, @absintheofmalaise or @AlNipper49 about moving posts.I can start the threads but don't know how to move posts
The bolded is not gonna happen.3) I've never once believed the playoffs are a crapshoot and I don't think most good GMs do either. I talked about this a lot with @JM3 last year (hope he comes back to the main board) but I think what we landed on is that the playoffs are a poker game. They are played against other teams and not simply odds. A good GM can identify traits that generally make a team more or less successful in the playoffs, and this is where a good manager actually comes in to play. Sure, sometimes the cards just will not land in your favor and there is nothing that can be done about that, but it's also not just blind luck.
Call me a pollyanna if you want, but between the second half of last season and the things I am seeing from Bello this offseason, I am expecting huge things from him in 2025. I expect him to be a clear #2 and maybe a #1B type pitcher by the end of the season. I can't remember the last time I have been this excited about a pitching rotation for the Red Sox.
I for the life of me cannot ever remember Cesar Puello playing a game for the Red Sox . What a waste of the 2-4 hitters surrounded by that lineup and pitching staff.
“I don’t think any of it matters to be completely honest,” Anthony said of his No. 1 status. “I haven’t done anything in the big leagues yet. I’m just looking forward to getting there and helping the team win.”
KCamp on earning a spot on the MLB roster...“I definitely feel like it feels a lot closer since I’m actually in Boston now,” Campbell said of his impending debut. “This is my second time in Boston, so I think being here definitely makes it feel a little closer. And it feels like it’s actually right around the corner.”
& Roman:“That’s the goal, that’s been the goal the whole time to compete,” Campbell said. “I love competing.”
Roman on Casas:“I’m going into spring training with that mentality, trying to win a job, and there’s really no other goal for me. I feel ready,” he said. “I’m doing everything I can. I trust in the front office, and trust they’ll make the right decision.”
& Casas on Roman:“I love Triston. He’s a good friend of mine,” Anthony said. “Every time we’re here, we go out to eat, spend some time with each other. We’ve gotten close. It’s great. It’s just great to go around and see some of these guys, learn from them, and see how they go about their day-to-day work. So anytime he invites me down there I go. I’ll try to get down there again with him before we go back to Fort Myers.”
Cora on Big MAC:“Roman’s in a really good spot, physically and mentally,” Casas said over the weekend at Fenway Fest. “He’s probably 45 minutes north of where I live (in Florida), so I’ve got to hit with him a couple times as well in the offseason. He’s been checking in with me as well.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6062197/2025/01/15/red-sox-kristian-campbell-roman-anthony-spring-outlook/“I want to see the kids play,” Cora said last weekend. “I saw a few of them the last few years, but Campbell and Marcelo and Roman, I want to see them play more.”
The Red Sox' plan is for two-way prospect Conrad Cason to pitch and be a position player right away this season.
They aren’t going to begin with one and then add the other as the 18-year-old’s first year of pro ball progresses. He’ll begin his 2025 season doing both whether that’s at Low-A Salem or later when the Florida Complex League begins.
“There’s definitely a plan. I don’t know if there’s really a (way to) ease your way into being a two-way player,” director of player development Brian Abraham said. “We’ll have him do both. He’s preparing this offseason to be a position player and pitcher. I think the biggest thing is managing his workload on both sides.
“You can’t just take a full load of a pitcher and full load of a position player (for him),” Abraham added. “So I think balancing that is really valuable. But our pitching group and our hitting group has worked really well together as well as our defensive group because of the shoulder piece (keeping his throwing shoulder strong) to manage his workload.”
Conrad was drafted last June at just 17. He turned 18 in August and so he was on the young side for his draft class. It’s likely he begins in the FCL but one person in the organization said he “wouldn’t be shocked” if he starts in Salem.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2025/01/red-sox-two-way-prospect-upper-90s-fb-power-bat-to-do-both-right-away.html“A lot of power. A fastball that reaches the upper-90s,” Abraham said. “I think the secondary stuff is still a work in progress. The secondary stuff is all about feel and consistency. So I think we’ll kind of work our way through that. ... But a guy who’s fast-twitch, ton of power — it comes off on his bat as well. The ability to impact the baseball. A big focus for him this offseason was adding strength, adding weight ... to impact the baseball when he swings and then when he’s throwing the baseball as well, which he did. He’s added some really good weight. There’s still some time to go before spring training so we’re hoping for a little bit more. But again, we’re really excited about the progress he’s made and the chance for him to impact the baseball on both sides of the ball.”
It's interesting how many high-walk guys they sign. We shall see if they have a plan for it.Sean is my cousin’s kid. Potential is awesome. Ability to throw strikes less so.
View: https://twitter.com/tomisphere/status/1825660397107433874I really can't not see it.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7330d50c-d383-428a-a8e1-8d5e3ca2970b
View: https://twitter.com/tomisphere/status/1827884927855329612Comparing the AA numbers of Kristian Campbell to those of Mookie Betts one last time. These are Betts' numbers for the entirety of his time in AA.
The numbers are remarkably similar. The BAbip's are closer now, a good sign for Campbell.
The strikeout numbers are also quite different, but only because Betts' were absurdly low. Campbell's 14.9% strikeout rate is actually very good - it's lower than that of 94% of his peers in the Eastern League this year (9th lowest of 148 with at least 150 PA's).
Campbell's OBP gets a bump from getting hit by pitches significantly more. That could be just luck, or it could be how he stands at the plate - time will tell.
But overall, just very similar numbers. I'm hoping to see Campbell promoted soon, but it'll probably have to wait until some complementary other roster move becomes possible.
Seattle with 5 of the top 50 is pretty amazing too...Not to let this run into politics, but I may or may not stop posting stuff from X or Instagram until TikTok comes back.
Have a top 50 starting pitchers list from TJ Stats I found on BlueSky...
View attachment 94965
#4 Crochet
#39 Houck
Of course, the Dodgers have 4 of the top 26 + Roki.
https://bsky.app/profile/tjstats.nesti.co/post/3lfklq7knp22m
You’ve probably covered this already and my apologies if so, but who is (are) a good MLB comp(s) for Roman?
I'm not a big comps guy. The 2 I've seen the most are Christian Yelich & Kyle Tucker, though.You’ve probably covered this already and my apologies if so, but who is (are) a good MLB comp(s) for Roman?
Top 50 of what exactly? Because Spencer Strider is below Zach Eflin. Is this just a 2025 only forecast, i.e. expected WAR?Seattle with 5 of the top 50 is pretty amazing too...
Top 50 of what exactly? Because Spencer Strider is below Zach Eflin. Is this just a 2025 only forecast, i.e. expected WAR?
https://tjstats.substack.com/p/mlb-top-50-starting-pitchers-for?open=false#§undefinedMy process consisted of three major components:
Production
I considered how the pitcher has produced throughout their career, weighing the 2024 as the most indicative of their true talent. I focused on metrics such as strikeout rate, walk rate, FIP, GB%, and tjStuff+. If a pitcher has been productive throughout their career, there is a strong likelihood that they will continue to have success. Analysing metrics that have strong predictive power, such K-BB%, helped separate pitchers from each other.
Projection
Projections are extremely important for this task. We already know how a pitcher has produced throughout their career, but we are concerned with how they will produce next season. Projections give us a good baseline for structuring these rankings. I decided to use Steamer Projections (via Fangraphs) as my projection system thanks to its reliability and accessibility.
Risk vs Reward
Ranking pitchers feels like a fool’s errand given the randomness of injuries, including the uptick of Tommy John Surgeries in recent years. With that being said, I tried my best to consider injury risks and punished pitchers who have struggled to stay healthy throughout their career. Volume is paramount to production, and I tended to side with pitchers who had a higher likelihood for tossing more innings over those who may be more dominant on a per-inning basis if their production was similar. At a certain point, some pitchers present a ceiling so tantalizing that the risk of missed time is worth the reward.
Some more notes:
* I only considered pitchers who are expected to play in the 2025 MLB Season and are (or have been) signed to an MLB contract in their career. This consideration really only bars Roki Sasaki, who would rank in the Top 20. His exclusion stemmed mostly from his lack of Steamer projection.
* I laid out my reasoning for each pitcher. Please read through this article.
* I am happy to discuss any pitcher on (or off) this list. Please be respectful.
These rankings are subjective!