2024 Dallas Cowboys: All In, or All Over?

Oil Can Dan

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The Cowboys have had three straight 12-5 seasons and are going to be very good in 2024, but they seem to be setting themselves up for a reset in 2025. They have a lame-duck Head Coach who today admitted that "it's a challenge" going into the season on the last year of his deal. They have a lame-duck QB in Dak Prescott, who the Cowboys have basically allowed to sit idle while the QB market exploded and is a free agent after this season. And then you have the lame-duck stud WR Ceedee holding out of training camp for a new contract with only a year left on his deal. And THEN next year they'll have to deal with perennial defensive player of the year candidate Micah Parsons.

At the beginning of the offseason Jerry said the Cowboys would be "all in" on improving the team then they basically less than any other team in the entire league. Are they just biding their time for a total reset in 2025? With the talented roster they have that seems cray cray, but wtf are they doing then? I am no capologist but there are ways to get things done if you really want to get things done. What are the Cowboys doing?
 

Greg29fan

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I would be absolutely shocked if they're very good in 2024. They did nothing in the offseason except the Draft and bringing back the withered husk of Zeke Elliott and their o-line is a tire fire.

The plan is clearly to punt on the season with the Joneses blaming some combination of Dak/CeeDee/McCarthy. I've said I think Jerrah wants to hire Deion Sanders but they might not be bad enough to get Shedeur, too.
 
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j-man

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jerry might as well go after bill after this season
they both want to win now
they have the best pass rusher in the nfl

plus bill wouild add guys like judon to deepen the pass rush
 

johnmd20

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I would be absolutely shocked if they're very good in 2024. They did nothing in the offseason except the Draft and bringing back the withered husk of Zeke Elliott and their o-line is a tire fire.

The plan is clearly to punt on the season with the Joneses blaming some combination of Dak/CeeDee/McCarthy. I've said I think Jerrah wants to hire Deion Sanders but they might not be bad enough to get Shedeur, too.
This is legitimately nuts.

The division isn't good. Dallas has talent right now. And bringing up Elliott like the RB matters to this offense ignores how phenomenal this offense was last year with terrible RB play. It's irrelevant.

The reset is happening after this year because Jerry Jones is washed but Dallas is good for 2024. They are rightfully favored to win the division.
 

Oil Can Dan

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This is legitimately nuts.

The division isn't good. Dallas has talent right now. And bringing up Elliott like the RB matters to this offense ignores how phenomenal this offense was last year with terrible RB play. It's irrelevant.

The reset is happening after this year because Jerry Jones is washed but Dallas is good for 2024. They are rightfully favored to win the division.
Favored where? Everywhere I look has Philly favored. Just checked DraftKings and Philly is -105 while Dallas is +155.

Anyway I think Dallas will again be very good but I also think their lack of activity on player personnel coupled with these contract issues has a chance to really derail them. I just can’t figure out what the Joneses are thinking.
 

Toe Nash

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I mean, they scored the most points in the league and had the second-best point differential last year. DVOA had them 4th in the NFL which seems fair. It's a good team even with no changes. There is downside with the stars being in the last year of their contracts but it's a good team.

I think Philly should be favored because their coaching was a shitshow last year and they landed Fangio and Kellen Moore but roster wise the two teams are very close and they are both right there with SF as SB contenders.
 

Greg29fan

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I mean, they scored the most points in the league and had the second-best point differential last year. DVOA had them 4th in the NFL which seems fair. It's a good team even with no changes. There is downside with the stars being in the last year of their contracts but it's a good team.

I think Philly should be favored because their coaching was a shitshow last year and they landed Fangio and Kellen Moore but roster wise the two teams are very close and they are both right there with SF as SB contenders.
It's not "no changes" though - Tyron Smith is gone, and even though he isn't what he was in his prime, he's still a very good LT, Tony Pollard was exposed as not a #1 guy but he still had 1,300 yards from scrimmage, which I find doubtful Zeke or Rico Dowdle or whatever the plan at RB is, will duplicate, Stephon Gilmore, who was so important to the team that Quinn completely changed his defensive scheme in the playoff blowout against GB b/c he was hurt, also isn't back. They also lost several players on defense to the Commanders since Dan Quinn went there and Leighton Van Der Esch retired.

Add in the coaching/Dak/Lamb drama, plus changing defensive schemes with Mike Zimmer coming in, and I stand by my call that they're going to struggle.
 

j-man

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i think 10-7 at best and unless u win the div or get the 5 seed and play the NFC south champ u are one and done
 

Toe Nash

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It's not "no changes" though - Tyron Smith is gone, and even though he isn't what he was in his prime, he's still a very good LT, Tony Pollard was exposed as not a #1 guy but he still had 1,300 yards from scrimmage, which I find doubtful Zeke or Rico Dowdle or whatever the plan at RB is, will duplicate, Stephon Gilmore, who was so important to the team that Quinn completely changed his defensive scheme in the playoff blowout against GB b/c he was hurt, also isn't back. They also lost several players on defense to the Commanders since Dan Quinn went there and Leighton Van Der Esch retired.

Add in the coaching/Dak/Lamb drama, plus changing defensive schemes with Mike Zimmer coming in, and I stand by my call that they're going to struggle.
Strong disagree on the RBs, you go as far as your line takes you and Zeke was pretty solid for the Pats when he had any kind of space to work with which wasn't often given the disaster of a line.

Pollard had 1316 yards on 307 carries + receptions, 4.3 per touch, they can definitely replace that with a combination of Zeke and whoever. RBs are fungible which seems to be a lesson lost in this forum sometimes.

They lost Smith but drafted a tackle in the first round. They signed Eric Kendricks who is solid. Gilmore who was so important isn't currently signed so make of that what you will.

I said that I think Philly will be better but I don't see this as a disaster of a team. There is always drama there but they haven't "struggled" in years as long as Dak is healthy. The issue is getting over the hump and putting together good performances in the playoffs, which I doubt they will do but who knows.
 

TFisNEXT

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My first post in here this season….so a few thoughts:

Guyton is starting look like another nailed draft pick by Will McClay on the offensive line. He’s gonna slot right in at LT I think based on his dominant play this month so far. Many were skeptical and I was trending that way going into camp, but I told myself to stop doubting the Cowboys on O-line picks.

We can criticize the Cowboys with their protracted free agency fiasco the last decade, but they have been incredible drafting…esp on the O-line. There’s a chance this Oline is better than last year if Beebe can actually play center. But even if he can’t, the Oline should be very good if Guyton looks anything like he has in August so far. We’ll see how he looks once the games get real though.


As for the rest of the team, losing Gilmore will suck but they gain Trevon Diggs back and the LB core will hopefully be better with Overshown. The Dline depth has been the biggest concern amongst most diehard DAL fans but they just surprisingly made two proactive moves on that front by signing Carl Lawson and trading for Jordan Phillips. Very unlike them to be proactive like that in summer. Up the middle has been the Achilles heel of the Cowboys in recent years. Mazi needs to have a good second year and show he was worth the draft pick. For all the questions about Dak in the playoffs, at least some of that heat should be directed toward the Cowboys’ interior defense. They’ve been piss poor in every single Cowboys playoff loss under Dak’s watch with the exception of the 2022 Divisional loss to the 49ers (played in Jan 2023). We’ll see if they can step up this year.

I’m not that worried about the offense if they’re healthy. The RB room sucks but this offense should still be exceptionally efficient. Im also not quite as low on the RBs as others. If Dowdle can play the pre-2023 Pollard role at even 80%, I actually really like Zeke as a short yardage/goalline back and on pass protection and that tandem should be fine in a pass-heavy fast-paced offense. Aside from the RB, even if they do suck, I’m expecting great things from Ferguson at TE this year and I think Cooks opposite CeeDee could be in line for a huge year now that he’s been in the offense for a season. Tolbert is the wildcard. Everyone is saying this dude is taking a monster leap in camp this year but the real test will be when the season starts. If he could become a dangerous WR3, then the offense could be filthy good.

There is some downside risk though. If Guyton has some growing pains, then that could pose some issues. We’ll have to keep an eye on center play as well. It was weak last year so the bar is fairly low for this year’s C to clear, but Beebe has had some snapping issues. Hoffman would be the center if Beebe can’t and it seems like Hoffman is slightly ahead right now to start. But Beebe has more upside if he can snap the ball well.
There’s also a chance the contract stuff could become a distraction but I’m putting that at low probability. At the end of the day, Dak has been QB on this team for 8 seasons going on 9, and 4 of those have been with CeeDee. Those two guys are pros, they will play well if they are healthy IMHO. CeeDee deal will get done anyway before the season starts. As much as I loath some of McCarthy’s weaknesses, I don’t think this being a contract season really will be a negative. He’s already been all-in since before last season when everyone assumed he was going to be fired if they didn’t advance deeper into the playoffs. But he actually survived that playoff loss largely in part to how dominant the offense performed when he basically took over it and forced Kellen Moore out after 2022. He figured if 2023 was going to be his last season, he was going to go out swinging doing the offense his way…and it worked so well it bought him 2024. Another reason I’m not worried about the offense is ironically Mike McCarthy…I think a second year now under him will continue to benefit Dak and the offense. I still have my legit critiques of him, but the offense was a total pleasant surprise. Nobody expected him to outperform Kellen Moore’s version like that.

I think barring major injuries, the Cowboys are a clear playoff team in the NFC. Whether that’s another division title or not depends on how improved the Eagles are. I don’t have strong opinions either way on the Eagles, I haven’t followed them super closely this offseason. Just enough to know they are better than last year on paper.

Of course, maybe the Cowboys fall apart and this assessment looks silly…that wouldn’t surprise me too much. But I think the bigger questions with this group is can they finally catch a playoff run rather than if they will make the playoffs at all.
 

TFisNEXT

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Brandon Aubrey made a 66 yard FG tonight. He really was an amazing find.
 

j-man

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unlees u guys get to or win the super bowl u need bill but will jerry go for mike zimmer because he is cheaper or easyer to manger
 

TFisNEXT

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DaRon Bland gonna miss 4-5 games with stress fracture in foot. Was excited to see him opposite Trevon Diggs but that will have to wait a bit.
 

TFisNEXT

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Fwiw, the Cowboys are holding out Cooper Beebe in the finale today despite no injuries. They confirmed what everyone who follows this stuff closely already knows as the reason…he’s won the starting center job.

His early preseason struggles with snapping seem to be behind him and he has looked REALLY good. We’ll see how it looks when the games count, but if Beebe and Guyton are hits, this O-line could be the best they’ve had since that 2014 season where they ran over everyone.

Now they just need to get CeeDee’s deal done this week.
 

Greg29fan

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Trey Lance pretty obviously showed he isn't an NFL QB, which is what it is, but they still shouldn't panic drop $60+M on #4 either.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Find another one in the draft, sign one or trade for one - I'd rather watch them suck then pay a known commodity with multiple home playoff losses what he wants.
Spoken like someone that's had Aikman, Romo, Prescott for 29 of the last 35 years.
 

BigSoxFan

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Find another one in the draft, sign one or trade for one - I'd rather watch them suck then pay a known commodity with multiple home playoff losses what he wants.
Isn’t what he wants a market rate contract? Cowboys aren’t going to suck this year so no idea where that QB comes from. This is a good team.
 

TFisNEXT

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Dak is a top 7 QB and you could easily argue top 5. He’s going to get paid whether it’s Dallas or somewhere else. The 49ers loss and Packers loss the last couple playoffs were really shitty but Dak has also lost playoff games where he played very well (LA Rams 2018 divisional round and Packers 2016 divisional round).

You are taking a gamble either way. I think the bigger risk is rolling the dice on some unknown QB in a draft rather than going with the guy who has a career 73-41 record as a starter and assuming 2 or 3 bad playoff games is predictable of the future.
 

johnmd20

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Dak is a top 7 QB and you could easily argue top 5. He’s going to get paid whether it’s Dallas or somewhere else. The 49ers loss and Packers loss the last couple playoffs were really shitty but Dak has also lost playoff games where he played very well (LA Rams 2018 divisional round and Packers 2016 divisional round).

You are taking a gamble either way. I think the bigger risk is rolling the dice on some unknown QB in a draft rather than going with the guy who has a career 73-41 record as a starter and assuming 2 or 3 bad playoff games is predictable of the future.
Dak isn't top 5 but he is top 10 and worth the money, considering what Tua and Love and Goff got.

That said, paying Dak that much is like paying Tua 50 million. It's not going to result in playoff success. Dak is 2-5 in the playoffs for a reason. And the only game they won easy was the game against a 45 year old Tom Brady with no offensive linemen. He squeaked by Seattle in 2018 and then lost games he should have won, including 3 games at home. And Dak at 60-65 million isn't going to help things for the overall roster.

But they still should pay him. It is technically possible that he goes on a playoff run. With Cooper Rush, there is no chance. Jerry Jones is washed, tho. Dallas has no idea what it's doing, they never lock up their studs early and extend the cap life of the contracts. This is why Dallas is last in the NFL in cash spending in the last year.

Jerry isn't trying. He's old.
 

Cellar-Door

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I love that Jerry Jones' go to move as a GM is refuse to pay his guys for months, then cave and pay them once the price has gone way up
 

j-man

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Dak isn't top 5 but he is top 10 and worth the money, considering what Tua and Love and Goff got.

That said, paying Dak that much is like paying Tua 50 million. It's not going to result in playoff success. Dak is 2-5 in the playoffs for a reason. And the only game they won easy was the game against a 45 year old Tom Brady with no offensive linemen. He squeaked by Seattle in 2018 and then lost games he should have won, including 3 games at home. And Dak at 60-65 million isn't going to help things for the overall roster.

But they still should pay him. It is technically possible that he goes on a playoff run. With Cooper Rush, there is no chance. Jerry Jones is washed, tho. Dallas has no idea what it's doing, they never lock up their studs early and extend the cap life of the contracts. This is why Dallas is last in the NFL in cash spending in the last year.

Jerry isn't trying. He's old.
common seance says u get bill b as coach next year but i think jerry will opt for zimmer because he will be 10 mil a year cheaper plus he goes back to the troy emmitt days
 

johnmd20

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231M guaranteed, beating Watson's putrid deal. Yikes.
What's yikes? That's a market level contract for a guy who is actually great and sometimes better than great.(excluding playoffs)

Watson was the yikes and is still the yikes and will always be the yikes.
 

Euclis20

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What's yikes? That's a market level contract for a guy who is actually great and sometimes better than great.(excluding playoffs)

Watson was the yikes and is still the yikes and will always be the yikes.
It's not as bad as the Watson deal, but it's the most guaranteed money ever for a QB who isn't getting any better, is the 5th-8th best QB in the league, and has no history of playoff success. I know we're in the era in which it seems that every new QB contract is the biggest ever, but that doesn't make them all market level.
 

johnmd20

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It's not as bad as the Watson deal, but it's the most guaranteed money ever for a QB who isn't getting any better, is the 5th-8th best QB in the league, and has no history of playoff success. I know we're in the era in which it seems that every new QB contract is the biggest ever, but that doesn't make them all market level.
Look at what Love, Tua, and Lawrence got. It's market level. You can say you don't agree with the market. But you can't say that deal isn't a market level deal.
 

Euclis20

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Look at what Love, Tua, and Lawrence got. It's market level. You can say you don't agree with the market. But you can't say that deal isn't a market level deal.
Those guys are all 5-7 years younger than Dak, and don't have a long history of playoff failure. The Cowboys are locking in a guy that hasn't been nearly good enough (and just as importantly, isn't getting any better) for huge money.

*edit - Cousins got 4/180, with 100 guaranteed. He's the comp for Dark, not the three much younger guys you mention.
 

johnmd20

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Those guys are all 5-7 years younger than Dak, and don't have a long history of playoff failure. The Cowboys are locking in a guy that hasn't been nearly good enough (and just as importantly, isn't getting any better) for huge money.

*edit - Cousins got 4/180, with 100 guaranteed. He's the comp for Dark, not the three much younger guys you mention.
It's a 4 year deal. Dak's age is irrelevant. Dak will be 35 at the end of this deal. Cousins is 36n right now and coming off an achilles tear.
 

Euclis20

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It's a 4 year deal. Dak's age is irrelevant. Dak will be 35 at the end of this deal. Cousins is 36n right now and coming off an achilles tear.
I'm not worried about Dak being no good before the end of the contract, their age is only relevant in that both guys are absolutely finished products while Tua/Lawrence/Love are in their mid 20s and have an average of 40 starts, compared with Dak in his 30s and 114 starts.
 

radsoxfan

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What's yikes? That's a market level contract for a guy who is actually great and sometimes better than great.(excluding playoffs)

Watson was the yikes and is still the yikes and will always be the yikes.
It’s the most guaranteed $ ever. I get the market and it’s not a massive overpay but I didn’t know they’d have to guarantee him more than Watson’s objectively terrible contract.
 

TFisNEXT

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Those guys are all 5-7 years younger than Dak, and don't have a long history of playoff failure. The Cowboys are locking in a guy that hasn't been nearly good enough (and just as importantly, isn't getting any better) for huge money.

*edit - Cousins got 4/180, with 100 guaranteed. He's the comp for Dark, not the three much younger guys you mention.


It's a 4 year deal. Dak's age is irrelevant. Dak will be 35 at the end of this deal. Cousins is 36n right now and coming off an achilles tear.
Best comp is prob Jared Goff (53 AAV). Drafted same year as Dak. He’s had more playoff success but significantly less regular season success and consistency, so you can bump up the numbers from Goff’s contract a bit. Almost everyone knew it was going to be close to 60 AAV.
 

ManicCompression

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I think it's less that the market is what it is and more that Dak had more leverage over the Cowboys than possibly any player in the history of free agency. He couldn't be franchised next offseason, so he could've walked to any team with available cap space and Cowboys would've only gotten a comp pick in 2026. They'd also have no way of replacing him after making a huge investment in CeeDee... even if he's not a top tier starter in eye of some folks here, $60 million/year pales in comparison to having Cooper Rush starting for a team with Super Bowl ambitions.
 

johnmd20

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I think it's less that the market is what it is and more that Dak had more leverage over the Cowboys than possibly any player in the history of free agency. He couldn't be franchised next offseason, so he could've walked to any team with available cap space and Cowboys would've only gotten a comp pick in 2026. They'd also have no way of replacing him after making a huge investment in CeeDee... even if he's not a top tier starter in eye of some folks here, $60 million/year pales in comparison to having Cooper Rush starting for a team with Super Bowl ambitions.
It's the best QB contract out of the last bunch that have been signed. It's better than Trevor, Burrow, Tua, Love, Cousins, and Daniel Jones.
 

Greg29fan

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The rumor was when they brought him back that Zimmer's success against Shanahan's coaching tree was the main reason - well, he just bombed against a Shanahan guy first chance.
 

TFisNEXT

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The rumor was when they brought him back that Zimmer's success against Shanahan's coaching tree was the main reason - well, he just bombed against a Shanahan guy first chance.
Looked just like the Green Bay playoff game on defense.
 

Greg29fan

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Coaching (like could a BB come in an fix this) or are there significant talent holes?
Both, they're not physical enough on defense, especially at DT and they might as well let Dak chuck it 65 times a game for what they get from running it.
 

TFisNEXT

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***Trigger warning for doomsdayers, this is a somewhat positive post. Doomsaying can resume when they get blown out by Detroit and San Francisco the next two weeks***

Kind of an interesting game last night from the counter-narrative aspect of things. First impressions are going to be “Dak made too many bonehead mistakes and the defense gave up a TD with the lead in the 4th quarter. Same shit as always.”

But this game actually had some positives from a Cowboys fan perspective:

1. Dak bounced back from a lot of adversity last night. The criticism of Dak is that he is a front runner. Puts up borderline MVP numbers in the regular season but can’t win when it counts and folds up late in games if his team is losing. But last night he repeatedly bounced back and refused to quit after those mistakes. He even saved the game 2 plays before the 4th down TD pass by jumping on the fumble at the 4 yard line (snapped from the half yard line). At the end of the day, he delivered when it mattered most this game.

2. Defense has some young players showing promise. We know how maligned the defense already was after the Saints/Ravens debacles, but even after playing without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, they have had some young guys step up and look good. Overshown is showing a lot of promise. He might be the fastest linebacker in the league. There’s a chance this defense could grow positively as we get later into the season. You get Bland back in a couple more games. You get Parsons back and hopefully some of these younger guys getting extra reps in the meantime continue to gel a bit. The optimist’s view is that you’d rather see this team start slow on defense but finish strong rather than start strong and finish slow like last year. If they can somehow get their secondary and D-line healthy at the same time done the road this season, it could be a very good defense. The question will still remain if these guys can stop a Shanahan offense. It’s one thing to look better against the Giants and Steelers, but they gotta make stops against much better offenses than that if you want to go anywhere…still, a positive step. Unfortunately, they aren’t getting many starters back for the Lions and 49ers games coming up. They might get Micah and Bland back for the 49ers but you don’t know if they’re gonna be full speed the first game back.

3. They showed a bit of a power run game for the first time all season. (Dowdle 87 yards on 20 carries) They’ve gotten zero from the run game until last night. I was never thinking they’d have a great run game this season but the first four games fell well below my already low-bar expectations of the run game. The ability to show a power run game against an elite run-stopping defense could open up the playbook a bit more. We saw some big chunk plays to Turpin and Tolbert down the field last night and those are the kind of guys who will have a lot of favorable looks if Dallas can at least keep defenses more honest with the run game. CeeDee will get his targets but the offense really becomes explosive when your secondary guys start making big plays off single coverage. Those are the kind of chances you’ll get more of if you can run the ball at least enough to keep them honest.


It’s not going to be an easy ride though even being optimistic. They are still going to be pretty depleted facing Detroit and SF the next two weeks. They’ll be doing well with a split there. If they can emerge into November intact, then it potentially has some real promise.
 

TFisNEXT

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wash is for real to win the East u will have to beat wash twice
Yea probably. Still a lot of questions about the WAS defense, but Daniels looks real so they aren’t the pushovers they have been for years now.
 
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I wonder what would happen, scheme- and playbook-wise, if BB were to come in to a situation, mid-season, and try to salvage a season. How would that even work?