2024 Draft In-Season Notes

[SMU_Sox]

This is your thread for draft notes, hot takes, fits, cautions, etc.

I want to plant some flags early: Based on the tape I have seen Jayden Daniels is my QB2 right now over Drake Maye and honestly I might even consider taking him over the anointed one, Caleb Williams. It's part how much I like Daniels. @EL Jeffe is also a big fan. It is also that I have had doubts and concerns with Maye, and Williams is scaring me this year. His ball security and decision making is worrisome. He's too reckless. He reminds me a little of Mahomes, sure, but that's a good and bad thing. I liked Mahomes but I felt like Mahomes was a guy who needed to go to the right coach, system, etc. He also struggles to stay and process quickly consistently in the pocket. Maye to me is overrated because I think his pocket presence is rough, he throws off his back foot a lot, he comes from a simple offense, he has a good arm but it isn't elite. It's a B+ and Mac would be a C.
Daniels to me reminds me of Lamar. I loved Lamar that year as I think you all know//remember. But he was still my QB3 that year. I think if I had more confidence in evaluating things I would have had him QB1 or 2. I think Daniels is a dual-threat. He is just as good in the pocket as he is a runner. He makes progressions. He could be better at keeping his eyes upfield but he is such a good runner that sometimes it makes more sense for him to just run and get the 10-15 yards.
I haven't watched full all-22 2023 tape in full so these opinions are going to change.

This is a draft where there will be around 10-15 blue-chippers or close to it. Guys you project to be pro bowl caliber. 3-5 on defense and 8-10 on offense. Might even be more. It's good at the top this year and it hasn't been for the last 2 years.

This won't add up to 15 because some of the guys I am putting down aren't universally regarded that way already but could be. And we also don't know the Darnell Wrights of this class - guys who will go in the top half of the first but who no one is talking about.

Let's do defense first because it is a shorter list:

Edge: Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Laiatu Latu
IDL: Jer'Zhan Newton
CB: Kool-Aid McKinstry, Cooper DeJean, and then there are 3-5 more guys right behind them.

Offense:
QB: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye. There is a next tier of guys who could be in the conversation - about 6 of them. IMO Jayden Daniels is him.
WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and then a group of guys: Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, Rome Odunze, Troy Franklin, Xavier Worthy who all could be blue-chip as well.
TE: Brock Bowers
OT: Olu Fashanu, Joe Alt Right, and like WR you have another group of guys who could be in there: Taliesa Fuaga (This mother-trucker is legit. He is not Darnell Wright level of being underrated by the draft community but I think he is a blue chipper.), JC Latham, Amarius Mims (I love him too), Graham Barton (might be an OG though).

You're looking at a deep WR and OT class. And there are waves of guys who are projected day 2 for both those positions.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

This is kind of a general question about assessing QBs which for some reason happens to be top of mind on this Monday morning.

How difficult is it to assess college QBs for pocket awareness? I don't watch much college ball but I see the scores and gaudy numbers plenty and my sense is that most of the defenses are hopeless against most of the offenses. How hard is it to get tape on how guys actually perform under duress? How do you weight a guy's ability to run through his progression when he has a clean pocket every play and multiple receivers running free against kids who will not be playing on Sundays? How often do you get to see these QBs moving around inside the pocket?

I've seen so much bad OL play across the NFL that it feels kind of presumptuous to look at a QB prospect and say "if you give this guy time to throw...." Certainly you do want a guy who can do damage from a clean pocket but for me the REAL differentiators at the tip-top levels of QB play are things like:

• Can a guy make plays against the blitz?
• Can he make the first rusher miss and still make a play?
• Can he keep plays alive with subtle shifts inside the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield?
• Can he step into a throw knowing he's about to get crunched?

Almost any schlub can make plays given enough time. And given how a lot of the top QB prospects have looked without that time once they get to the NFL...I don't know, I badly want a top QB but am skittish given how costly and time-consuming a mistake pick can be. So when you say the top two guys have some pocket issues, I read that and think "Let's get Marvin and the best QB left with the Rd 2 pick or a trade-up."

I'm probably being a little unfair given that Brady was probably the best I have ever seen at the skills I'm focusing on here and the current QB is, uh, not.

Is this the kind of thing where Senior Bowl evaluations are weighted a little heavier? How much of it is just...you don't know until they step on the field and start facing down impossible human specimens on defense every week?

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Great post, SMU. I want to thank you in advance for all the hard work you do and the invaluable information you provide in this forum. Your posts are all the draft prep I need.

 

[ehaz]

Great read as always SMU. What’s your early take on some of the other QBs so far? Curious to hear your thoughts on Penix and McCarthy in particular.

 

[tims4wins]

This is kind of a general question about assessing QBs which for some reason happens to be top of mind on this Monday morning.

How difficult is it to assess college QBs for pocket awareness? I don't watch much college ball but I see the scores and gaudy numbers plenty and my sense is that most of the defenses are hopeless against most of the offenses. How hard is it to get tape on how guys actually perform under duress? How do you weight a guy's ability to run through his progression when he has a clean pocket every play and multiple receivers running free against kids who will not be playing on Sundays? How often do you get to see these QBs moving around inside the pocket?

I've seen so much bad OL play across the NFL that it feels kind of presumptuous to look at a QB prospect and say "if you give this guy time to throw...." Certainly you do want a guy who can do damage from a clean pocket but for me the REAL differentiators at the tip-top levels of QB play are things like:

• Can a guy make plays against the blitz?
• Can he make the first rusher miss and still make a play?
• Can he keep plays alive with subtle shifts inside the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield?
• Can he step into a throw knowing he's about to get crunched?

Almost any schlub can make plays given enough time. And given how a lot of the top QB prospects have looked without that time...I don't know, I badly want a top QB but am skittish given how costly and time-consuming a mistake pick can be.

I'm probably being a little unfair given that Brady was probably the best I have ever seen at the skills I'm focusing on here and the current QB is, uh, not.

Is this the kind of thing where Senior Bowl evaluations are weighted a little heavier? How much of it is just...you don't know until they step on the field and start facing down impossible human specimens on defense every week?

Great read as always SMU. What’s your early take on some of the other QBs so far? Curious to hear your thoughts on Penix and McCarthy in particular.

Related to both - how do we even begin to evaluate McCarthy when he doesn’t even throw a pass in the second half against the only real team he’s played? He hasn’t faced a pressure snap all season.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

'Joe Alt Right' made me laugh out loud. Great way to start my day.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I need to see more out of JJ. Penix has an unfortunate injury history. He's not the most mobile guy but he can avoid sacks. He's kind of like Big Ben? I like Penix a lot but/and he's a genuine gun slinger and he will take a lot of risks. His accuracy can be spotty too at times. He's a pocket passer but he can also create out of structure. He will be in plenty of top3 QB lists.

I haven't been able to watch a single Michigan game yet because I am focussed on SEC games or other games. Michigan's offense is such a tough eval because their OL is so good. My Michigan friends seem to think he is a day 2 guy. He's a slighter build.

I am not a Nix person - he has a propensity to make 1-2-3+ boneheaded throws a game and I don't think he processes post snap that well.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Daniels is likely to get a lot of hype and momentum in the run up to the draft. He’s taken a solid leap in development this year and he should test extremely well at the combine if he participates. I do have some mild reservations about whether his run style is going to be as effective in the pros as it is in college. He’s a straight line guy, he doesn’t have (or at least, hasn’t shown) the type of ability to make guys miss that Jackson has. He has good vision and terrific straight line speed but that might not be enough at the NFL level to be a special runner. Solidly a 1st round pick IMO this year and has a huge ceiling. I do think he needs to end up in the right system with a good QB coach who can clean up his lower body mechanics which are inconsistent at times

Hard agree on Fuaga. Alt and Fashanu are getting all the love but Fuaga is an absolute animal in the run game. He’s one of the best run blocking RT I’ve seen in the last 20 years in terms of ability, technique and physical traits. I think being a RT only is going to limit his value to a lot of teams though. He can and does win in the pass game against good edge rushers but if you’re drafting him early it’s because of his run blocking. In terms of overall skill at his position, he’s a top 12 player in this class but I could see him going anywhere from 7-20 depending on how things fall. He’d make a lot of sense for the Titans to replace Hubbard

 

[Cellar-Door]

Brugler discussed Daniels some here, is considering him as his #3 QB
https://theathletic.com/podcast/211-the-athletic-football-show/?episode=854

 

[Justthetippett]

This discussion of Daniels is making me less worried if the Pats pick up a win or two and fall out of the top 3 picks. He also seems primed to have an Anthony Richardson-like rise through the process.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So today was possibly the last week for Caleb Williams (depending on whether he plays in whatever 4th tier bowl game USC makes).
USC lost again 38-20, Williams was... mediocre, 31-42, 384 yard 1 TD, 1 INT.
Did show off some of the physical traits that have made him the #1 frontrunner including this just silly throw:
View: https://twitter.com/uscfb/status/1725991304860176408


Drake Maye has one more game next week, today he struggled.
UNC lost 31-20, Maye was 16-36 for 209 yard a TD and 1 INT. (also ran for 67 yards on 10 carries).
His signature throw was this back foot throw that made it (positives, got some zip on it, placed it nicely, negative.. that was a Mac Jones-esque decision/footwork)

Other QBs... JJ McCarthy a week after they hid his keys was bad, but Michigan narrowly avoided upset (1 game left next week)
Daniels is in progress against a bad sunbelt team, he's 19/23 for 306 5TDs 0 INT and has run for 78 and a TD... the 3rd isn't over yet.
Bo Nix 24/29 406 yards 6 TD 0 INT

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Daniel’s finished with 509 combined yards and 8 TDs.

He seems good at the Quarterbacking.

 

[luckiestman]

Seems like this class sucks from what I’m reading (I don’t watch all the guys). Penix and Nix continually light it up, don’t know how well they work at the next level. I’ve only seen Williams play bad or mediocre but he seems to have good tools.

 

[Marciano490]

Gonna be sad if we end up with a top 5 pick in year without a dynasty changing QB.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Seems like this class sucks from what I’m reading (I don’t watch all the guys). Penix and Nix continually light it up, don’t know how well they work at the next level. I’ve only seen Williams play bad or mediocre but he seems to have good tools.

I don't think it does, people are picking apart Williams, but the top draft guys seem to all think he's a much better prospect than anyone last few years (since Lawrence).

 

[Cellar-Door]

Decided to put this here:
https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/2024-ol-draft-class-preview-with

It's paid for Brandon Thorn's substack to get the full episode of him previewing the class with Duke Manyweather (trains a lot of NFL O-lineman), but it also has a nice 17 minutes of free preview that covers the top 2 guys in depth and quick run through of another 10 or so.

 

[j44thor]

Daniel’s finished with 509 combined yards and 8 TDs.

He seems good at the Quarterbacking.

The biggest knock I've read on Daniels is he is 6'4" 210 lbs and plays the position like Anthony Richardson. We saw how well that worked out for a 6'4" 250 lb AR. If JD can't learn to protect himself better he isn't going to be long for the NFL. That is a significant red flag when he will be facing grown ass men next season vs. 20yo future salesmen.

I've only seen a handful of his games/plays but if that is the case that is indeed scary. Would love to hear some more informed opinions and if this is something that can be coached out of him.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Breer polled executives about the best draft-eligible players among the four teams in the playoff:

1) Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama (24 points): Last year, I had a couple NFL folks tell me they believed Turner was a better prospect than Will Anderson Jr., who went third in the draft. After a nine-sack, first-team All-American season, it’s fair to say that, even if he’s not, the idea then wasn’t far-fetched. “Dallas is a better athlete than Will,” one NFC exec said this week. “Will played harder.” So, yeah, Turner won’t wait long on draft night.

2) JC Latham, OT, Alabama (20 points): Latham is like Evan Neal, in that he’s impossibly big (360 pounds) for a guy who looks lean for an offensive linemen. He’s started for two years at right tackle for the Tide, and that athletic profile is a big reason why many believe that as good as he’s been, as a second-team All-American, the best might be yet to come.

3) Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (20 points): Big, strong, and consistent, Odunze has a very good chance to be the second receiver taken, after Ohio State superstar Marvin Harrison Jr. Odunze, listed at 6'3" and 216 pounds, went over 100 yards in nine of the Huskies’ games this fall, and was first-team All-American and a Biletnikoff Award finalist.

4) Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (9 points): In his first full year as a starter, the 308-pound true junior was just what so many NFL teams are looking for—a game-wrecker on the interior of the defensive line. He’ll head to the Sugar Bowl with five sacks on the season and a big test ahead against a really good Husky front.

5) Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington (7 points): The fifth-year senior was All–Pac 12 in both of his seasons as Washington’s starting left tackle and also has the versatility to have started at guard. Going against the defensive fronts he’ll see in the CFP will give him a chance to raise his stock, starting with Texas’s freakish line in New Orleans.

6) Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (6 points): Arnold has outplayed his more ballyhooed bookend Kool-Aid McKinstry this year and is tall, long, physical and versatile—capable of being the kind of secondary chess piece NFL coaches drool over. In his second year as a starter, he’s emerged as a first-round prospect.

7) J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan (3 points): McCarthy appeared on one ballot, as the third-highest-ranked prospect—and with his being the Michigan QB, you’d betting on the come line. He wasn’t often asked to carry his team. Can he do it in the NFL, with very solid athletic traits? It’ll be argued plenty in the spring.

8) Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (1 point): The Georgia transfer—who scored the game-winning touchdown for the Bulldogs in the national semifinal last year—has emerged as a very intriguing prospect, given his combination size and speed. He has 51 catches for 813 yards and 10 touchdowns going into the Sugar Bowl.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/01/01/nfl-week-17-takeaways-49ers-clinch-nfc-still-great