2024 Jets: Out of the Darkness - Take 2

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,273
Florida
Vegas will have to part with draft capital if Wilson is in this deal. Will never be a one for one swap.
While I was initially kinda figuring that in my head....it is the Jets here. We shouldn't of got bent over with the added in pick swap on the Rodgers comp either, but we did.

I don't trust our guys to be the smart ones in a room while negotiating a move they are desperate to make, and they have been hot on trading for Adams since even before feeling a need immediately after last year's trade deadline to leak how they tried really hard to get it done then.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts way less than 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
14,944
Wilson is pretty good. Good route runner, good hands, smart player. I don’t play fantasy anymore so number 10 would have him as what in terms of receivers. Jefferson has been better but won’t have Cousins, Hill is great and then it seems like there would be a lot of guys that I don’t know if I would would say Wilson is better but also not clear that they’re better than he is. If he and 8 stay healthy a lot of questions about him will be answered.
Where you at with this now?
 
Apr 7, 2006
2,657
I think everybody is sleeping on the potential likelihood it ends up being a Garrett Wilson for Davante Adams swap that ends up getting this trade done. It actually makes a lot of sense for both teams imo when you don't default to this concept idea that the 2-2 FO in Vegas, constantly trying to grasp at relevancy since the day they moved to that city, are just going to want a rebuild pick. Which didn't end up being the case last year either.

Especially with Garrett Wilson being clearly unhappy with both Hackett and with his current roll in the offense..To the point he's out there in the media openly chirping about it again over the weekend. Which likely only gets worse post-trade when his target share in an already limted output offense takes a notable hit.
I'm sleeping on it bc that's ridiculous. If the jets did that, I would laugh my ass off. No CHANCE. Davante is going to bring the Raiders a 2nd or 3rd rounder at best, I'm guessing. Garrett Wilson is a 1st rounder plus. Young, clearly very talented, a weapon on offense. Rodgers behind center and armed with the two RBs, Garrett Wilson AND Davante Adams starts to look like a little something. A one-for-one trade would be pratically pointless for the NYJ. Hope they do it!
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,273
Florida
Confused, had 2 1000 yard seasons with Zach and can’t figure out how to play with my quarterback.
I'm a lot more concerned with how much a guy actually shows he can consistently win on the field as opposed to what he can do when given a league leader level amount of opportunity targets.But on that note of just how impressive or 'special" those 1000 yard seasons really are:

Since 2013 (as far back as the quick math site I used went) there have been 41 different times a receiver has seen 160+ targets in a season.

Only one single time out of the 41 did those 160+ targets not record a 1000 season. Jarvis Landry in 2017, and who totaled 987 yards in 7 less targets then the 168 GW saw last year.

In fact only 2 times did any of those 41 record less then a 1100+ yard season. Landry's 2017, and Garret Wilson's 2023.

Bottomline are we trying to have an argument whether Garrett Wilson's fairly substantial amount of built up tape at the NFL level would suggest he's an "elite" guy looking to break out, or are we conceding he's probably looking to have more of Terry McLaurin type ceiling. Because those are 2 different arguments I would make. Which include a projection that he wouldn't outproduce Davante Adams over the next 2 seasons we are locked into Rodgers/Hackett, in *THIS* offense, if you were giving me the either/or option.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,273
Florida
I'm sleeping on it bc that's ridiculous. If the jets did that, I would laugh my ass off. No CHANCE. Davante is going to bring the Raiders a 2nd or 3rd rounder at best, I'm guessing. Garrett Wilson is a 1st rounder plus. Young, clearly very talented, a weapon on offense. Rodgers behind center and armed with the two RBs, Garrett Wilson AND Davante Adams starts to look like a little something. A one-for-one trade would be pratically pointless for the NYJ. Hope they do it!
No chance Garrett Wilson with his body of NFL work so far nets you a #1 in this current landscape. They save the pick and just draft WR in the 1st round on a fresh rookie deal.
 

Tony C

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 13, 2000
14,393
I'm sleeping on it bc that's ridiculous. If the jets did that, I would laugh my ass off. No CHANCE. Davante is going to bring the Raiders a 2nd or 3rd rounder at best, I'm guessing. Garrett Wilson is a 1st rounder plus. Young, clearly very talented, a weapon on offense. Rodgers behind center and armed with the two RBs, Garrett Wilson AND Davante Adams starts to look like a little something. A one-for-one trade would be pratically pointless for the NYJ. Hope they do it!
Saleh-Douglas have their jobs on the line. That's exactly the situation in which you overpay for a guy like Adams. I don't really think it'll be a Wilson-Adams deal, but I do think the general situation will lead the Jets to be willing to overpay. Add in that AR will undoubtedly be making excuses/grousing about needing a WR who knows him, and there's a lot of pressure on the Jets FO. And, really, nothing to lose: losing future picks hurts the franchise mid/long term...but short term can help.
 

Tony C

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 13, 2000
14,393
He's pretty fast with the humble brag though
"Obviously, that was below my standard," said Rodgers, who threw two interceptions in the first quarter -- a career first. He learned that factoid after the game. He lamented his three turnovers, saying, "In a game we lose by six, plays like that are exponentially highlighted. So, three turnovers for me is definitely out of character and I'm disappointed."
Way to "take responsibility" while making sure to remind you how great you are (or used to be).
 

boca

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
563
Conditional 3rd rounder which can become a 2nd based on performance according to Rapaport
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
48,642
Here
This is a one and done, too. Well, he’ll at least need another contract. He makes 36 mil base next season.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
49,141
I mean, this is an objectively good trade even if it may not solve their key issues on defense.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
48,642
Here
I mean, this is an objectively good trade even if it may not solve their key issues on defense.
I think it depends on conditions. If the 2nd is easily reached, it’s a lot to give up for a 32 year old rental for a team that is 2-4. Guess they might as well, as this is the Rodgers window and all that, but meh.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
49,141
I think it depends on conditions. If the 2nd is easily reached, it’s a lot to give up for a 32 year old rental for a team that is 2-4. Guess they might as well, as this is the Rodgers window and all that, but meh.
They have to go all in on Rodgers. Season still salvageable. There’s an obvious reckoning coming for sure.

Also, I graded this trade on the Mohamed Sanu curve.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
48,642
Here
I agree, but everybody (else) is fired if they miss the playoffs, so it makes sense for Douglas to sell out for a player like Adams.
They have to try, yes. Sanu was obviously worse, but same concept. The QB is old, window closing, it’s now or never.

Rodgers will probably get hurt regardless. It’s like watching Old Favre at this point, though I think Aaron will throw in the towel sooner.
 

Helmet Head

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
5,217
Central Mass
How good is Adams these days? Really have no idea as it’s hard to assess him being in the Raiders. Don’t know why, but also thought he was younger than he is. Turning 32 in December .
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,763
CT
How good is Adams these days? Really have no idea as it’s hard to assess him being in the Raiders. Don’t know why, but also thought he was younger than he is. Turning 32 in December .
Definitely good enough to roll the dice on this year and bet that getting out of purgatory and getting back with Rodgers stokes a reenergized Adams.

Wilson is very talented, but he hasn’t taken that step that everyone assumed he would once Rodgers started. At this point, he’s a very good #2, and will likely benefit from someone like Adams taking attention and targets away from him.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
38,030
306, row 14
How good is Adams these days? Really have no idea as it’s hard to assess him being in the Raiders. Don’t know why, but also thought he was younger than he is. Turning 32 in December .
He's still pretty good, he had 1100 yards last year with abysmal QB's.

I think it's a no brainer for the Jets. Adams has a history with Rodgers so there's not fit worries. The offense is struggling, Adams will help. They are 2-4, season is teetering but still salvagable. Rodgers has what, 1 more year, maybe, so the window is now. Adams has no guaranteed money past this year so he's easy to move on from and the picks don't matter because Douglas isn't going to be around to make the pick in all liklihood.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,625
Move makes sense though obviously they wish it was done in the offseason rather than now.

2-4 can turn into 4-8 pretty easily. Their season is salvageable now, but a few more bad games and it won't be.
 

GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
773
It doesn’t solve their needs but the Jets are going to be playing in the postseason so they need the weapons: they are 2-4 but check out their remaining schedule:

@ Pitt: tough game
@ NE: layup
Vs Houston: tough game
@ arizona. Not super tough
Vs Indy. Not super tough
Vs Seattle. Not tough
@ Miami. If no Tua, then layup.
@ jax. Layup
Vs Rams. Not tough
@ Buffy. Tough
Vs Dolphins. Layup.

That’s 10 wins to me.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
35,003
It doesn’t solve their needs but the Jets are going to be playing in the postseason so they need the weapons: they are 2-4 but check out their remaining schedule:

@ Pitt: tough game
@ NE: layup
Vs Houston: tough game
@ arizona. Not super tough
Vs Indy. Not super tough
Vs Seattle. Not tough
@ Miami. If no Tua, then layup.
@ jax. Layup
Vs Rams. Not tough
@ Buffy. Tough
Vs Dolphins. Layup.

That’s 10 wins to me.
We need the NFC to keep cooking and/or the Bills to choke. They and Bengals are kind of lucky the AFC seems down.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,273
Florida
*sigh* The idea that Adams will end up being some massive upgrade in *THIS* offense is basically just throwing shit at the wall right now. Based on surface evaluation logic that completely glosses over the fact that NFL player values are never static, and which are typically going to be largely influenced on what is going on around them. This trade, like the Aaron Rodgers trade, is just more of the same never seeing the bigger and more rationalized picture nonsense. Forever chasing down the quick fix shortcut attempts that won't/don't work.

Enough already with the "we need to be all in" bs. We've already put enough in that pot where if it's not working by now you stop being stupid and believing otherwise. The one big change that needed to be made (cutting out the hackett cancer and getting legit offensive coaching in the building) for that to actually happen didn't this past offseason (thanks Aaron!), and that isn't something you can fix without a full offseason reset. From here we needed to be riding it out for better or for worse.

After last night I'm a lot more worried about whether Tyron Smith is cooked then I am with trying to upgrade Mike Williams or WR.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
53,801
At least we get to replace this:

https://x.com/danorlovsky7/status/1846173020118749555

You could argue it was a Rodgers underthrow, but the safety was over the top so you want it under- he threw it to the empty part of the zone. Williams was in the wrong place, didn't sense the open spot in the zone, and then failed to adjust anyway
It was a bad throw - one that the royal "we" would kill a young QB over around these parts.

Also, maybe I am missing something but isn't the Jets biggest problem the fact that Rodgers is a ~bottom third QB thus far? I am no QB guru but he looks his age physically and his output isn't betraying the eye test.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
35,003
It was a bad throw - one that the royal "we" would kill a young QB over around these parts.

Also, maybe I am missing something but isn't the Jets biggest problem the fact that Rodgers is a ~bottom third QB thus far? I am no QB guru but he looks his age physically and his output isn't betraying the eye test.
He’s 10th in yards and 8th in TDs. It depends what you’re looking at. He hasnt won games by himself but he has not been terrible. The expectation was average qb play with a good defense wins games. So much for that. The inability to run the two weeks prior was a much bigger problem than the QB. The offense played ok last night, the defense was ok, just a sloppy penalty filled game.

Biggest problem is I don’t know if he can keep taking these hits.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,273
Florida
Also, maybe I am missing something but isn't the Jets biggest problem the fact that Rodgers is a ~bottom third QB thus far? I am no QB guru but he looks his age physically and his output isn't betraying the eye test.
I say this as the most vocal since Day 1 Jets fan on the internet against the trade for Aaron Rodgers - his play ain't the direct problem. Aaron has looked good, and nobody watching his 2024 tape is going to conclude he's a bottom 3rd level QB. Rodgers is by far the best thing this team has going for it atm.

But he is also primarily responsible for the lingering Hackett infection and a decsion to go a season and half now without putting a legit OC in place...so yeah. That, generally being a poorly coached football team, not being able to stop the run, still ending up with a very questionable OT situation, ect ect. These are all bigger current problems.
 

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
2,473
This is a clear win for the Jets. I understand not wanting to "go all in" from 2-4 for a diminished Rodgers, but I don't view a 3rd as giving up too much at all, especially with a relatively down year for the AFC. Really don't think the chance Adams makes all-pro is all that high, and in the very off chance he does AND they're in the last 4 teams standing it was probably worth a 2 anyways.

Adams is still good and one needs to look no further than Lazard to see that Rodgers's Packers connections have value to him. Wilson is good but has been a relative disappointment seeing #1 coverage, I see the addition of Adams as a huge boon to him and Hall. No brainer in my opinion.
 

Mooch

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,178
Rodgers is 26th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. Behind Daniel Jones.

He hasn't been good.
 

Jace II

no rules
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,196
It was a bad throw - one that the royal "we" would kill a young QB over around these parts.

Also, maybe I am missing something but isn't the Jets biggest problem the fact that Rodgers is a ~bottom third QB thus far? I am no QB guru but he looks his age physically and his output isn't betraying the eye test.
I don't agree that it was a bad throw. It would have been better if it was further outside, but if it was deeper it would have been right at the safety. Open part of the zone, and the receiver didn't know where he was supposed to be and didn't even try to make a play on the ball until late. If he's just standing still in the zone gap he catches that ball.

Rodgers has been weird. He's played 2 very good games, yesterday and the Patriots game, 2 eh games, and 2 terrible ones. He was really good yesterday.
 

Curt S Loew

SoSH Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
8,717
Shantytown
The expectation was average qb play with a good defense wins games. So much for that.
I think you're being a bit disingenuous here. The Jets(and there fans) were expecting much better than "average QB play" from AR.

This sounds like "If it's below your standards, lower your standards" revisionism.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
9,745
Wilson is very talented, but he hasn’t taken that step that everyone assumed he would once Rodgers started. At this point, he’s a very good #2, and will likely benefit from someone like Adams taking attention and targets away from him.
Well, he's played 6.1 out of a possible 23 games with him so it's kind of hard to make a leap with any given QB if you've barely played with them. Ironically enough, he looked fantastic last night and I tend to doubt that getting fewer targets will be a net benefit in his development.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
35,003
I think you're being a bit disingenuous here. The Jets(and there fans) were expecting much better than "average QB play" from AR.

This sounds like "If it's below your standards, lower your standards" revisionism.
I mean before Rodgers even got here when everything was Zach’s fault that was the sales pitch. Expectations went way up with Rodgers but we can’t even do the average QB great D thing.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
53,801
I watched Rodgers play and then looked at the stats and the Jets record. He doesn't look even average to my eyes and his stats aren't screaming that he is secretly outperforming.

That doesn't mean that he is washed or anything. Its just feels like the team's struggles are a partly a function of a soon to be 41 year old QB dealing with diminished skills post injury. Saleh walked so Aaron could run I guess.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,763
CT
Well, he's played 6.1 out of a possible 23 games with him so it's kind of hard to make a leap with any given QB if you've barely played with them. Ironically enough, he looked fantastic last night and I tend to doubt that getting fewer targets will be a net benefit in his development.
I probably worded that poorly. I meant he would likely become more efficient on a per route basis with Adams becoming the receiving workhorse and the central focus of the passing game.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,763
CT
I watched Rodgers play and then looked at the stats and the Jets record. He doesn't look even average to my eyes and his stats aren't screaming that he is secretly outperforming.

That doesn't mean that he is washed or anything. Its just feels like the team's struggles are a partly a function of a soon to be 41 year old QB dealing with diminished skills post injury. Saleh walked so Aaron could run I guess.
His athleticism is gone. He can still spin it, but he isn’t escaping the pocket and extending plays any more.

The expectation was he would elevate the Jets offense, but at this stage in his career, he’s now a QB that needs the talent surrounding him keep him afloat.
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
26,967
Well, he escaped the pocket just fine against the Patriots and shredded them. Maybe that's not saying much, but he looked pretty good in that game to me.
 

Mooch

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,178
I do this crazy thing where I watch the games.
Wow, me too. And I see a lot of things that show that he's a below average QB at this point in the season that's actually backed by some meaningful data as opposed to just the eye test. Shame on me, I guess.