2024 Team and Player Projections (Mostly Players We Have.)

[LogansDad]

RR i enjoy your insights and posts and you bring a lot to this board, so I'll just agree to disagree with you on this one. If this were a team that was much better constructed and much closer to being championship caliber, Refsnyder makes a ton more sense. But when you are going younger, need to see what you have in Rafaela, and want O'Neill, assuming he stays healthy, to get pretty much every day AB's i just don't see the fit. He his a Chaim guy to boot. Just because he's cheap is not a good enough reason, IMO.

But there also isn't any reason to jettison him right now, either. He isn't blocking anyone in February, and if all the other outfielders perform well in spring training it is easy enough to jettison him then, or if he performs well in spring training maybe another team wants to take him on for a flier prospect or something. He is a guy who was under contract and is really cheap, there is zero reason at the current moment for Breslow to just ship him off for no reason other than a winter roster spot.

As a tangential aside, not quite related to your post, I really don't want them to bring Duvall back. The guy was maddening to me last year and easily my least favorite player on the team to watch. If you sign him, he likely also comes with the expectation of starting the majority of the games, which creates a weird platoon and split playing time for Duran, O'Neill and Abreu, all of who should probably be playing as much as possible for the future of the organization (O'Neill less so, but I am hoping he is a good fit and rebounds well from his injury plagued last season).

I would much rather have Refsnyder as a 4 OF with Masa at DH and the other three playing every day, than Duvall playing every day. It isn't so much the Duvall upside over Refsnyder that is the issue, though Ref actually has a 1 point higher OPS since 2021 than Duval, believe it or not (I do love some OBP magic, and it is in far fewer at bats due to being mostly platooned), it is that Duvall just doesn't provide upside over the other players that he would push down the depth chart. I felt the same way about Soler, too, for what it's worth.

(Edit: Sorry @Rovin Romine , I forgot what thread I was in, I will move my thoughts to the other thread after class if necessary)

 

[Rovin Romine]

RR i enjoy your insights and posts and you bring a lot to this board, so I'll just agree to disagree with you on this one. If this were a team that was much better constructed and much closer to being championship caliber, Refsnyder makes a ton more sense. But when you are going younger, need to see what you have in Rafaela, and want O'Neill, assuming he stays healthy, to get pretty much every day AB's i just don't see the fit. He his a Chaim guy to boot. Just because he's cheap is not a good enough reason, IMO.

I think we agree more than you think. Assuming OF health, Refsnyder's the most redundant piece on the ML roster given O'Neill's presence. Part of that is because only about 1/3 of the pitches thrown are from LHP. So while he's very good against them, his opportunity to really exploit his roster spot should really be about 1/3rd of a season's worth of ABs. But that assumes you have a roster and a manager that will play to that strength. Cora, whether by managerial preference, or forced by injury, has not been really able to maximize Refsnyder in that way. I don't know if another manager or a different roster would make a difference, but I'd reasonably expect that his year 3 usage will be very much like year 1 and year 2.

And of course it matters if the team is competing or not, or Refsnyder is getting ABs at the expense of development ABs for another player. (Best for anybody's crappy adjustment period to happen in a non contending year.) But we'll have to see what happens on that front.

Regardless, Refsnyder is what he is, and there's no harm in our getting an accurate bead on it.

The one place we possibly diverge is that I give zero shits if his shirtless poster graces the wall of Dombrowski, Bloom, or Breslow. That changes nothing at all about his play. And if it is a factor for you, I'd say to check your evaluations the more carefully for it.

 

[simplicio]

RR i enjoy your insights and posts and you bring a lot to this board, so I'll just agree to disagree with you on this one. If this were a team that was much better constructed and much closer to being championship caliber, Refsnyder makes a ton more sense. But when you are going younger, need to see what you have in Rafaela, and want O'Neill, assuming he stays healthy, to get pretty much every day AB's i just don't see the fit. He his a Chaim guy to boot. Just because he's cheap is not a good enough reason, IMO.

Rafaela definitely needs everyday at bats, which is why he should start every day in AAA and not in Refsnyder's part time bench role.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Assuming OF health, Refsnyder's the most redundant piece on the ML roster given O'Neill's presence.

Since I advocated for signing Duvall in another thread, I’ll voice support for him here. I actually have a little bit of a different take. If you could guarantee me that Duran/O’Neill/Abreu would all be healthy and effective throughout the season, I think Refsnyder would be a nice fit. The issue is that the chances of that happening are remote and when injury/ineffectiveness happens, you’re pressing Refsnyder into full-time duty. If we’re looking to compete, I want no part of Refsnyder and his 67 career wRC+ batting against RHP.

 

[simplicio]

The way I see it, either of Duran or Abreu is likely to fail, but that just means sending one back down and bringing Rafaela up to have his shot, not immediately switching Refsnyder into a full time role.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

My assumption is that Rafaela spends the first couple of months in AAA for service time reasons and to continue to refine his approach. Signing Duvall is building the necessary depth so you don’t have to accelerate that.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Rafaela definitely needs everyday at bats, which is why he should start every day in AAA and not in Refsnyder's part time bench role.

I think Rafaela could certainly get everyday at bats….as a super utility player. Most often in CF, but also RF against some LHP and to spell Story, Grissom and Devers who will either need days off or off their feet as the DH..hit him in the 9 hole to take the pressure off and have some potential speed at the bottom w/ Duran leading off to create some havoc on the bases. The new rules reward speed. He has it.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I think we agree more than you think. Assuming OF health, Refsnyder's the most redundant piece on the ML roster given O'Neill's presence. Part of that is because only about 1/3 of the pitches thrown are from LHP. So while he's very good against them, his opportunity to really exploit his roster spot should really be about 1/3rd of a season's worth of ABs. But that assumes you have a roster and a manager that will play to that strength. Cora, whether by managerial preference, or forced by injury, has not been really able to maximize Refsnyder in that way. I don't know if another manager or a different roster would make a difference, but I'd reasonably expect that his year 3 usage will be very much like year 1 and year 2.

And of course it matters if the team is competing or not, or Refsnyder is getting ABs at the expense of development ABs for another player. (Best for anybody's crappy adjustment period to happen in a non contending year.) But we'll have to see what happens on that front.

Regardless, Refsnyder is what he is, and there's no harm in our getting an accurate bead on it.

The one place we possibly diverge is that I give zero shits if his shirtless poster graces the wall of Dombrowski, Bloom, or Breslow. That changes nothing at all about his play. And if it is a factor for you, I'd say to check your evaluations the more carefully for it.

 

[Cassvt2023]

But there also isn't any reason to jettison him right now, either. He isn't blocking anyone in February, and if all the other outfielders perform well in spring training it is easy enough to jettison him then, or if he performs well in spring training maybe another team wants to take him on for a flier prospect or something. He is a guy who was under contract and is really cheap, there is zero reason at the current moment for Breslow to just ship him off for no reason other than a winter roster spot.

As a tangential aside, not quite related to your post, I really don't want them to bring Duvall back. The guy was maddening to me last year and easily my least favorite player on the team to watch. If you sign him, he likely also comes with the expectation of starting the majority of the games, which creates a weird platoon and split playing time for Duran, O'Neill and Abreu, all of who should probably be playing as much as possible for the future of the organization (O'Neill less so, but I am hoping he is a good fit and rebounds well from his injury plagued last season).

I would much rather have Refsnyder as a 4 OF with Masa at DH and the other three playing every day, than Duvall playing every day. It isn't so much the Duvall upside over Refsnyder that is the issue, though Ref actually has a 1 point higher OPS since 2021 than Duval, believe it or not (I do love some OBP magic, and it is in far fewer at bats due to being mostly platooned), it is that Duvall just doesn't provide upside over the other players that he would push down the depth chart. I felt the same way about Soler, too, for what it's worth.

(Edit: Sorry @Rovin Romine , I forgot what thread I was in, I will move my thoughts to the other thread after class if necessary)

i never said that they should cut bait with him now. Of course let things play out. I just don’t understand why he is being penciled in to be a lock to make this team. His roster spot should not be a guarantee, especially if they sign a RHH OF like Duvall, Pham, or Taylor Jr., who all have their warts as well, but definitely more pop in the bat, and in Taylor’s case, much better D.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Thanks for responding RR, much respect to you and your research and dedication here. I could also give zero shits about which regime brought him in or extended him. Buuut, it’s usually the case that it’s much easier to cut ties with a guy that your predecessor brought in. Kinda like a guy that you draft, that’s your guy. But the next guy may think, that wasn’t my guy so I have less invested in him. We’re good brother

 

[TomRicardo]

My assumption is that Rafaela spends the first couple of months in AAA for service time reasons and to continue to refine his approach. Signing Duvall is building the necessary depth so you don’t have to accelerate that.

You would want him playing some more middle infield as well. He could win the CF job but he could also get the SS job if Story breaks again.

 

[pjheff]

I think Rafaela could certainly get everyday at bats….as a super utility player. Most often in CF, but also RF against some LHP and to spell Story, Grissom and Devers who will either need days off or off their feet as the DH..hit him in the 9 hole to take the pressure off and have some potential speed at the bottom w/ Duran leading off to create some havoc on the bases. The new rules reward speed. He has it.

It’s asking a lot to expect a 23 year old with 199 AAA at-bats to adjust to the major leagues and learn to command the strike zone while simultaneously juggling five defensive positions.

 

[sezwho]

It’s asking a lot to expect a 23 year old with 199 AAA at-bats to adjust to the major leagues and learn to command the strike zone while simultaneously juggling five defensive positions.

Thanks for making this point. Even Mookie stumbles a bit when going infield to outfield and back on occasion . I’m not sure super sub is the best way to break him in either.

 

[Helen of Troy O’Leary]

Best guesses as it stands. I’m an eternal optimist in spring, but this doesn’t look so bad to me, for all the payroll handwringing and full-throttle Twitterverse mocking. Relative to position, I see 5 plus speed, potentially 5-6 plus OBP, only 3-4 plus power but all capable of .400+ slugging. And it probably (there’s that word again) will be bolstered by a Dalbec upgrade, with I guess Garrett Cooper being my half-hearted preference:

LF Duran L
3B Devers L
RF O’Neill R
1B Casas L
SS Story R
DH Yoshida L
2B Grissom R
CF Rafaela R
C Wong R

OF Abreu L
CI Dalbec R
MI Reyes R
C McGuire L

The pitching needs more help, if only for bankable innings. Holding out hope for Montgomery if it gets below 5/110, and if not, a trade for Luzardo using Duran++ or a thoroughly vetted Clevenger (author of the quietest 3.3 bWAR in 2023):

Bello R
Giolito R
Pivetta R
Crawford R
Whitlock R

Jansen R
Martin R
Houck R
Schreiber R
Winckowski R
Bernardino L
Campbell R
Slaten R

 

[chawson]

FanGraphs released their ZiPS prospect projections for 2024.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/

The Red Sox have three Top 50 prospects (tied for second-most with five other teams) and five Top 100 prospects (tied with the Orioles, and behind the Cubs, Pirates, Padres and Reds, who have six).

Mayer #12
Anthony #22
Rafaela #26
Teel #66
Yorke #76

They have the most prospects in the Top 200 among all MLB teams, with 12.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Since we're into Spring Training, with the signing of CJ Chron, I thought this should be bumped for the burning question of: who will be the 26th Man? Or who will be the 13th among the position players, and 13th among the pitchers?

What we appear to have at the moment: (please correct me if I've forgotten anyone.)

Starters

C Wong​

1B Casas LHH​

2B Grissom​

3B Devers LHH​

SS Story​

LF O'Neill​

CF Duran LHH​

RF Abreu LHH​

DH Masataka Yoshida LHH​

Bench

C McGuire LHH​

OF Refsnyder​

CF/SS Rafaela​

UT Reyes​

OR: Dalbec, Hamilton, CJ Cron?

I would think that Cron's mostly Casas injury insurance through spring training? But if he's not cooked, he has the best bat among Reyes, Dalbec, and Hamilton. He's also a dedicated 1B.



Starting Rotation as of today:

1 Lucas Giolito​

2 Bello​

3 Pivetta​

4 one of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock or Winckowski.​

5 same​

Bullpen as of today:

1 Jansen​

2 Martin​

3 Justin Slaten (Rule 5)​

4 Bryan Mata (no options)​

5 one of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock or Winckowski.​

6 one of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock or Winckowski.​

7 Isaiah Campbell​

8 Bernardino (LHP)​

​

OR: Murphy, Weissert, Criswell, Jacques, Kelly?

I would think that Mata might start the season on the DL - if so, Weissert makes sense, with Murphy being stretched out as a starter in AAA.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think the goal will be to keep as much depth as possible to start the season, and get young guys like Rafaela and Valdez as many at bats as they can in AAA. So barring any injuries, I’d go with Cron in the last position spot (unless he looks completely cooked).

No idea on the bullpen yet.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think the fourth bench spot is Cron, Valdez, Dalbec, or Rafaela. My preference is Valdez by I can see where Cron takes the spot if he shows anything this month and the alternative is he opts out. Ideally, he goes to Worcester to be deep depth rather than rotting on the bench 4-5 days a week.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

I think the fourth bench spot is Cron, Valdez, Dalbec, or Rafaela. My preference is Valdez by I can see where Cron takes the spot if he shows anything this month and the alternative is he opts out. Ideally, he goes to Worcester to be deep depth rather than rotting on the bench 4-5 days a week.

What’s the role of Valdez on the roster as currently constructed? Just curious as to how you see the playing time shaking out.

I think my preference would be to go with Cron (if he shows anything as you said). Let Valdez get regular playing time in AAA to see if he can improve his defense at 2b or if his bat can take a step forward.

Cron does have the opt out and not sure how willing he would be to go to AAA. He’s 34 and has made nearly $30M in his career.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What’s the role of Valdez on the roster as currently constructed? Just curious as to how you see the playing time shaking out.

I think my preference would be to go with Cron (if he shows anything as you said). Let Valdez get regular playing time in AAA to see if he can improve his defense at 2b or if his bat can take a step forward.

Cron does have the opt out and not sure how willing he would be to go to AAA. He’s 34 and has made nearly $30M in his career.

I like the idea of having at least one LHH middle infielder on the roster. I also like the idea of the 26th spot being one held down by a player with options so if a need arises, they can easily be swapped to fill that need. If the bench is McGuire, Refsnyder, Reyes, and Cron, that's four guys with no options and thus no flexibility.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Since we're into Spring Training, with the signing of CJ Chron, I thought this should be bumped for the burning question of: who will be the 26th Man? Or who will be the 13th among the position players, and 13th among the pitchers?

What we appear to have at the moment: (please correct me if I've forgotten anyone.)

Starters

C Wong​

1B Casas LHH​

2B Grissom​

3B Devers LHH​

SS Story​

LF O'Neill​

CF Duran LHH​

RF Abreu LHH​

DH Masataka Yoshida LHH​

Bench

C McGuire LHH​

OF Refsnyder​

CF/SS Rafaela​

UT Reyes​

OR: Dalbec, Hamilton, CJ Cron?

I would think that Cron's mostly Casas injury insurance through spring training? But if he's not cooked, he has the best bat among Reyes, Dalbec, and Hamilton. He's also a dedicated 1B.



Starting Rotation as of today:

1 Lucas Giolito​

2 Bello​

3 Pivetta​

4 one of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock or Winckowski.​

5 same​

Bullpen as of today:

1 Jansen​

2 Martin​

3 Justin Slaten (Rule 5)​

4 Bryan Mata (no options)​

5 one of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock or Winckowski.​

6 one of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock or Winckowski.​

7 Isaiah Campbell​

8 Bernardino (LHP)​

​

OR: Murphy, Weissert, Criswell, Jacques, Kelly?

I would think that Mata might start the season on the DL - if so, Weissert makes sense, with Murphy being stretched out as a starter in AAA.

I would add Joley Rodriguez to the list of possible bullpen arms as a 2nd LHP and definitely put him ahead of Jacques, Kelly and porobably Murphy and Weissert.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I like the idea of having at least one LHH middle infielder on the roster. I also like the idea of the 26th spot being one held down by a player with options so if a need arises, they can easily be swapped to fill that need. If the bench is McGuire, Refsnyder, Reyes, and Cron, that's four guys with no options and thus no flexibility.

that can easily be remedied by not penciling Refsnyder and his .683 OPS last year and his 13 career HR into a backup OF spot with O’Neill now here and Rafaela getting every chance to win a spot.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I would add Joley Rodriguez to the list of possible bullpen arms as a 2nd LHP and definitely put him ahead of Jacques, Kelly and porobably Murphy and Weissert.

Joely has an opt-out if he's not added to the 26/40-man by the end of spring training. I don't think he cracks the top eight unless there are a number of injuries (more than just Mata anyway). I think he's gone.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I like the idea of having at least one LHH middle infielder on the roster. I also like the idea of the 26th spot being one held down by a player with options so if a need arises, they can easily be swapped to fill that need. If the bench is McGuire, Refsnyder, Reyes, and Cron, that's four guys with no options and thus no flexibility.

Preusmably, though, the reason for a swap is likely an injury which puts someone on the DL. If Valdez makes the roster, the only players that can be called up for him is one already on the 40-man, so Dalbec, Hamilton, or Rafaela?

Valdez could PH for the catcher, but otherwise don’t really see what his role would be.

 

[simplicio]

I think the bench as it stands today is McGuire, Reyes, Cron and Refsnyder.

Rafaela's been looking quite good. There's obviously a lot of ST left and he needs to face more real pitchers toward the end of the month, but they're obviously giving him a real chance here and I think he's currently playing his way onto the team at Abreu's expense.

 

[Rovin Romine]

How does the defensive spread stand on the potential backups?

My impression is:

Valdez - 2B (but not a great defender) (Break-glass OF/1B?)
Rafaela - CF, SS, possibly 2B, but little expereince?
Reyes - All MI, but 1B is a stretch.
Cron - 1B only.

Since Story and Grissom can swap between 2B and SS (Grissom at SS not recommended though), the positions to spell would be 3B, SS/2B, and 1B.

 

[simplicio]

How does the defensive spread stand on the potential backups?

My impression is:

Valdez - 2B (but not a great defender) (Break-glass OF/1B?)
Rafaela - CF, SS, possibly 2B, but little expereince?
Reyes - All MI, but 1B is a stretch.
Cron - 1B only.

Since Story and Grissom can swap between 2B and SS (Grissom at SS not recommended though), the positions to spell would be 3B, SS/2B, and 1B.

Depth in order of likelihood, AAA (imo) guys in italics:

1B: Casas/Cron/Reyes/Refsnyder/Dalbec (I'll give Reyes the nod over Ref here given that they've put him there for a couple starts already this spring)
2B: Grissom/Reyes/Valdez/Story (I don't see them messing around with Rafaela and throwing him all over the field to start with)
SS: Story/Reyes/Rafaela/Grissom
3B: Devers/Reyes/Dalbec
LF: Duran/Yoshida/Refsnyder/Abreu
CF: Rafaela/Duran/Refsnyder/Abreu
RF: O'Neill/Rafaela/Refsnyder/Abreu

Solano is still out there. Replacing Cron with him would take a lot off Reyes's shoulders.