#37 Semi Ojeleye

[NomarsFool]

One of the things that is a bit difficult with valuing a player like Semi is, there are lots of situations where he plays really good defense, and the other team's offense is just better. For example, the Sacramento game Semi came in and played some great defense on Hield - but Hield was still killing us (same with Smart at times as well). So, in a game like that - what value does Semi have (I know he happened to hit some shots that particular game). To put it another way, if you play great defense on a guy but they can still score on you, and you can't score on them - you're not an asset on the court.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

One good game and Semi is shooting 50% from the field and 44% from 3. Might have been a little early to write him off. Or not.

If he can actually hit the three consistently, then he's an NBA rotation player. As bad as he is at everything else to do with offensive basketball.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

One of the things that is a bit difficult with valuing a player like Semi is, there are lots of situations where he plays really good defense, and the other team's offense is just better. For example, the Sacramento game Semi came in and played some great defense on Hield - but Hield was still killing us (same with Smart at times as well). So, in a game like that - what value does Semi have (I know he happened to hit some shots that particular game). To put it another way, if you play great defense on a guy but they can still score on you, and you can't score on them - you're not an asset on the court.

Hield, though, is exactly the kind of guy you don't want Semi defending. Semi's strength is stopping guys from driving to the hoop. If the guy in question can reliably just shoot over him, Semi's not that helpful.

 

[NomarsFool]

Fair, although you'd hope with Semi's length he could get an effective hand in his face.

Either way, it was another unstoppable guard performance against the Celtics. They also got killed on the boards, in my opinion. There needs to be a counting stat for offensive rebounds that lead to easy put backs. I feel like the Celtics' opponents would be leading the league in that stat.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Fair, although you'd hope with Semi's length he could get an effective hand in his face.

Semi's standing reach is 8'6", and Buddy's is 8'5". Buddy is an elite jump shooter. If we played them 100 times, Semi might block one shot.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Semi's standing reach is 8'6", and Buddy's is 8'5". Buddy is an elite jump shooter. If we played them 100 times, Semi might block one shot.

Shot blocking is just not what Semi does. He has 8 career blocks, none this year. He can shut off driving lanes against elite players, even Giannis. That's about the extent of what he does, though.

For comparison purposes:

• Kemba Walker already has 8 blocks this year.
• Mr. Chemistry had 34 last year.
• In Semi's rookie year, Shane Larkin, Kadeem Allen, Jabari Bird, Jonathan Gibson, Xavier Silas, Jarrell Eddie, and Gordon Hayward combined for 5 blocks in 1,055 minutes. Semi had 4 blocks in 1,150 minutes.

 

[slamminsammya]

My hot take is that semi is not a good on ball defender. Reason being he is elite level bad at contesting shots. He doesnt jump. He doesnt foul either but its because hes gone to the extreme end of just putting his hands up and guys know they don't have to worry at all about getting their shot off. Amd its infuriating cuz he has like a 200 inch vertical.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

My hot take is that semi is not a good on ball defender. Reason being he is elite level bad at contesting shots. He doesnt jump. He doesnt foul either but its because hes gone to the extreme end of just putting his hands up and guys know they don't have to worry at all about getting their shot off. Amd its infuriating cuz he has like a 200 inch vertical.

That's not a crazy take but it is a bit on the extreme side. There are good players in the league that an opposing coach would love to have settling for a lot of mid-range jumpers. Giannis being a prime example. Ojeleye gives you that. (Aside: I wonder if any of Tatum's second-year overreliance on mid-range shots had to do with a steady diet of working against Ojeleye in practice.) But he'd obviously be a disaster against anyone comfortable with taking those shots.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Guess who is leading the team in 3P%?

SSSs are fun!

(Semi up to 50.0% from 3P land!)

 

[benhogan]

Guess who is leading the team in 3P%?

SSSs are fun!

(Semi up to 50.0% from 3P land!)

he's gone from "on-ball beef" to "3pt mignon"

 

[Jimbodandy]

he's gone from "on-ball beef" to "3pt mignon"

Petit mignon until the sample size improves, but I'm glad for it so far.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

He was a good FT shooter in college and hit the 3 at over a 40% clip so there was some hope. I'm not sure why he's been such a terrible FT shooter in the NBA, though.

In college he was 172/219, .785 from the FT line. In the NBA, he's 52/85, .612. Maybe it's just sample size but you'd think FT % is pretty stable.

 

[chilidawg]

He was a good FT shooter in college and hit the 3 at over a 40% clip so there was some hope. I'm not sure why he's been such a terrible FT shooter in the NBA, though.

In college he was 172/219, .785 from the FT line. In the NBA, he's 52/85, .612. Maybe it's just sample size but you'd think FT % is pretty stable.

Probably got far more consistent reps in college as a featured player. He's shot 85 free throws in 142 games, or not quite 2 per game.

 

[lovegtm]

Probably got far more consistent reps in college as a featured player. He's shot 85 free throws in 142 games, or not quite 2 per game.

Yup—you mean 0.6 per game, which means he’s going to the line about once every 3-4 games on average.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Aside from the disastrous collision with Kemba, Ojeleye had a decent stretch of minutes in the first half. He was on the floor for the rally aborted by injury. For some reason that led Stevens to start him in the second half and he was his typical awful. The ball started finding him on the offensive end, allowing him to shoot threes (0-3), drive (for an offensive foul), and otherwise keep the Celtics' offense in check.

 

[NomarsFool]

With Kemba and Hayward out, this team is going to have a hard time putting the ball in the hoop. Teams are going to be able to really focus on Brown and/or Tatum, and the offensive limitations of the rest of the team are going to be really exposed, unfortunately.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

With Kemba and Hayward out, this team is going to have a hard time putting the ball in the hoop. Teams are going to be able to really focus on Brown and/or Tatum, and the offensive limitations of the rest of the team are going to be really exposed, unfortunately.

I'd almost consider starting Edwards and try to get him going. I don't know where else the offense will come from.

 

[Van Everyman]

With Kemba and Hayward out, this team is going to have a hard time putting the ball in the hoop. Teams are going to be able to really focus on Brown and/or Tatum, and the offensive limitations of the rest of the team are going to be really exposed, unfortunately.

You are consistently negative about everything Celtics and I’m not sure why. It sucks to lose those guys and I’m sure it will hurt, but last I checked, this team put up a fight without either of those guys against a really good team. It’s almost like you haven’t been watching – or watched what happened two years ago when the sky fell.

 

[benhogan]

I'd almost consider starting Edwards and try to get him going. I don't know where else the offense will come from.

I'd expect Brad Wanamaker or Grant to start.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Tremont Waters called up from Maine

 

[lovegtm]

You are consistently negative about everything Celtics and I’m not sure why. It sucks to lose those guys and I’m sure it will hurt, but last I checked, this team put up a fight without either of those guys against a really good team. It’s almost like you haven’t been watching – or watched what happened two years ago when the sky fell.

Meh, I think it’s fair to say that losing the two best offensive players will muck up the offense a lot. Even more so because you have to go deeper into the bench.

I think there are some silver linings though. A lot of guys are about to get thrown into the fire pretty hard.

 

[TripleOT]

Meh, I think it’s fair to say that losing the two best offensive players will muck up the offense a lot. Even more so because you have to go deeper into the bench.

I think there are some silver linings though. A lot of guys are about to get thrown into the fire pretty hard.

Well, Tatum and Brown will have to bump up their shot attempts to make up the points. No reason that Tatum and Brown can't flirt with 30 points every game if they get the shots.

 

[benhogan]

don't look now but Semi is starting to hit the sideline 3, up to 38%

if the C's are serious about this season, which they are, they need to see if this is real or just a 17-45 stint.

if we get 40% 3pt + on ball beef, he becomes an impt rotational player against the Bucks/Sixers

 

[JakeRae]

don't look now but Semi is starting to hit the sideline 3, up to 38%

if the C's are serious about this season, which they are, they need to see if this is real or just a 17-45 stint.

if we get 40% 3pt + on ball beef, he becomes an impt rotational player against the Bucks/Sixers

Even with that improved shooting, he profiles as a complete black hole on offense. As in, like IT on defense level bad at offense. It’s really hard to see him adding value with the depth at wing the current roster has and the fact that Grant Williams looks to have clearly passed him as an overall player and Romeo has a reasonable chance at also being there before season’s end.

His shooting improvement simply isn’t enough to cover all his other offensive flaws.

 

[benhogan]

Even with that improved shooting, he profiles as a complete black hole on offense. As in, like IT on defense level bad at offense. It’s really hard to see him adding value with the depth at wing the current roster has and the fact that Grant Williams looks to have clearly passed him as an overall player and Romeo has a reasonable chance at also being there before season’s end.

His shooting improvement simply isn’t enough to cover all his other offensive flaws.

It's not like they'd be clearing out and asking Semi to go ISO, run the PnR, create or distribute. Just the mere thought of Semi doing any of those things makes me break out into a cold sweat.

With 2 of the Big4 offensive alphas on the floor at all times, along with Enes at the dunker spot, a 40% 3pt shooter that can guard Giannis and Simmons has value on the 2nd unit

I love me some Grant/ Romeo, and the rookie development machine. But neither Grant or Romeo is ready to wait in the corner and hit 3s at that rate or slow down Giannis/Simmons

 

[JakeRae]

It's not like they'd be clearing out and asking Semi to go ISO, run the PnR, create or distribute. Just the mere thought of Semi doing any of those things makes me break out into a cold sweat.

With 2 of the Big4 offensive alphas on the floor at all times, along with Enes at the dunker spot, a 40% 3pt shooter that can guard Giannis and Simmons has value on the 2nd unit

I love me some Grant/ Romeo, and the rookie development machine. But neither Grant or Romeo is ready to wait in the corner and hit 3s at that rate or slow down Giannis/Simmons

The thing is, plus minus based metrics like RPM and RAPM should not be punishing him offensively if your thesis holds, but they do. They think his offense is a very significant negative for team performance. This matches the eye test, he still basically destroys the offensive flow.

 

[amarshal2]

I assume the issue is that he’s completely one dimensional. He can’t dribble, pass, make a layup, rebound, or hit a mid range jumper. I don’t recall him setting many a great screen, either. The only thing he can do is hit a wide open 3.

 

[benhogan]

The thing is, plus minus based metrics like RPM and RAPM should not be punishing him offensively if your thesis holds, but they do. They think his offense is a very significant negative for team performance. This matches the eye test, he still basically destroys the offensive flow.

Semi is an experienced, deep bench piece that can physically guard Ben Simmons or Giannis for 10-15mpg. He has done it before on the biggest of stages.

His adv off/def net rating was a +6 last season. So far he has a positive net rating this season. He doesn't kill the team when he's on the floor AND if he ever shoots 40% from 3 (I guess that's my thesis???) then he'll be valuable.

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season

 

[JakeRae]

Semi is an experienced, deep bench piece that can physically guard Ben Simmons or Giannis for 10-15mpg. He has done it before on the biggest of stages.

His adv off/def net rating was a +6 last season. So far he has a positive net rating this season. He doesn't kill the team when he's on the floor AND if he ever shoots 40% from 3 (I guess that's my thesis???) then he'll be valuable.

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season

This stat doesn’t make the case you are trying to make. The only players with worse ratings on the team than Semi who have gotten real minutes are Carsen Edwards and Javonte Green. Grant Williams, for example, has a net rating 10 points better. In other words, the team is worse when Semi is playing v. basically any player who might conceivably otherwise play those minutes.

 

[benhogan]

This stat doesn’t make the case you are trying to make. The only players with worse ratings on the team than Semi who have gotten real minutes are Carsen Edwards and Javonte Green. Grant Williams, for example, has a net rating 10 points better. In other words, the team is worse when Semi is playing v. basically any player who might conceivably otherwise play those minutes.

yep, Semi hasn't been great this season. I'm not sure I ever made the case that he has been good this year?

My point was he was starting to hit 3s at a 38% rate this season. If he bumps that up to 40% there is a bench role for him as the 4th or 5th offensive option and on-ball beef vs big wings. Brad likes playing him because he's decent at D, if he becomes one of their better shooters from 3 I'm expecting Brad to utilize him more.

"Offensive blackholes" (as you called him) like Semi can be useful, if they are the 5th offensive option, shoot 40% from 3 and can play + defense against other teams' important offensive players.

When using +/-, the larger sample size is helpful, so last year is relevant (the previous season he sucked, yet Brad used him in the playoffs)

BTW I like Grant and Romeo and they should get minutes while they learn to play in the NBA. More minutes will come over the next 6 weeks, 23 games in 42 days, they will be needed.

Let's see what Brad does when they play the Bucks and Sixers in a few weeks. AND see how the next 6 weeks play out.

 

[Big John]

Ojeleye is what he is. He has a valuable skill defending certain players, which keeps him in the league. The improved three point shooting is a bonus.

 

[lovegtm]

yep, Semi hasn't been great this season. I'm not sure I ever made the case that he has been good this year?

My point was he was starting to hit 3s at a 38% rate this season. If he bumps that up to 40% there is a bench role for him as the 4th or 5th offensive option and on-ball beef vs big wings. Brad likes playing him because he's decent at D, if he becomes one of their better shooters from 3 I'm expecting Brad to utilize him more.

"Offensive blackholes" (as you called him) like Semi can be useful, if they are the 5th offensive option, shoot 40% from 3 and can play + defense against other teams' important offensive players.

When using +/-, the larger sample size is helpful, so last year is relevant (the previous season he sucked, yet Brad used him in the playoffs)

BTW I like Grant and Romeo and they should get minutes while they learn to play in the NBA. More minutes will come over the next 6 weeks, 23 games in 42 days, they will be needed.

Let's see what Brad does when they play the Bucks and Sixers in a few weeks. AND see how the next 6 weeks play out.

The main issue with a guy who can only shoot 3s (who’s not a Bertans-type dead-eye-quick-release) is that teams can really sell out running them off the line, without fear of that hard closeout costing them. Then you’re left with Semi attacking the closeout and killing the offensive flow, where, as JakeRae notes, the stats and eyes are not kind.

 

[benhogan]

The main issue with a guy who can only shoot 3s (who’s not a Bertans-type dead-eye-quick-release) is that teams can really sell out running them off the line, without fear of that hard closeout costing them. Then you’re left with Semi attacking the closeout and killing the offensive flow, where, as JakeRae notes, the stats and eyes are not kind.

drawing a hard closeout or any kind of attention to the perimeter for your 5th offensive option is a win. You wouldn't want him driving with Kanter at the dunkers spot or two of their Big4 on the court. He's on the floor for his defense or an open 3. Yep, he's one dimensional offensively.

it's a big IF for him to be a 40% shooter but rest assured Brad would use him for 10-15mpg if he got there

 

[lovegtm]

drawing a hard closeout or any kind of attention to the perimeter for your 5th offensive option is a win. You wouldn't want him driving with Kanter at the dunkers spot or two of their Big4 on the court. He's on the floor for his defense or an open 3. Yep, he's one dimensional offensively.

it's a big IF for him to be a 40% shooter but rest assured Brad would use him for 10-15mpg if he got there

I mean...it’s a win for guys who aren’t Semi. The reason his offensive impact numbers are so bad is that it’s a win for the defense when he puts the ball on the floor.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I mean...it’s a win for guys who aren’t Semi. The reason his offensive impact numbers are so bad is that it’s a win for the defense when he puts the ball on the floor.

He made a play the other day when he drove the closeout for like two dribbles and dished when someone stopped the ball, leading to an easy basket. It was one of the highlights of the game for me.

Nobody expects offensive production from Semi, but there's a reason why we have the "3 and D" category of player. A 3 and D guy is a useful player. If he's only useful against a subset of the population, then he's less useful than some others of his ilk.

I think that BH is saying that maybe Semi added the "3" to the "D", and that would make him a bit more useful as a player. Nobody is using "good" to describe him. SSS so far, but it would be nice to have in a stopper.

 

[lovegtm]

He made a play the other day when he drove the closeout for like two dribbles and dished when someone stopped the ball, leading to an easy basket. It was one of the highlights of the game for me.

Nobody expects offensive production from Semi, but there's a reason why we have the "3 and D" category of player. A 3 and D guy is a useful player. If he's only useful against a subset of the population, then he's less useful than some others of his ilk.

I think that BH is saying that maybe Semi added the "3" to the "D", and that would make him a bit more useful as a player. Nobody is using "good" to describe him. SSS so far, but it would be nice to have in a stopper.

Yeah no, I get the theoretical idea of Semi. It’s just that there’s a continuum of offensive ability for 3-and-D guys, and he seems a bit too close to the bad end of it.

That said, he’s cheap and can play defense, so I imagine he stays and they just hope he can get very incrementally better at some parts of offense, as with the pass he made the other night.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Totally fair.

 

[benhogan]

I think that BH is saying that maybe Semi added the "3" to the "D", and that would make him a bit more useful as a player. Nobody is using "good" to describe him. SSS so far, but it would be nice to have in a stopper.

pretty much. He's jockeying for the 9/10th man in the rotation with Romeo and Grant. Those two clearly have a much higher ceiling but Semi can help this season to build a wall against the Bucks, Sixers, Lakers. It would be nice to see Semi start hitting 3s at a high rate while he's focused on D. He's nothing more than a role player and would expect his PT to vary greatly from game to game depending on matchups.

I'm still very much in the camp of giving Grant/Romeo minutes, see what we can get there and develop them with NBA minutes. These two should easily pass Semi on the depth chart by next season. I wouldn't be shocked to see Grant become a key defensive cog and eventually be on ball beef against large wings/ball handlers.

No matter how the board feels about Semi, Brad continues to use him. If he thought Semi was a complete black hole offensively, I doubt Brad would do that.

 

[pjheff]

He made a play the other day when he drove the closeout for like two dribbles and dished when someone stopped the ball, leading to an easy basket. It was one of the highlights of the game for me.

Anecdotally, I’ve noticed some strides from Semi this season as well. I’ve never been a huge fan, as he has not up to this point really shown any development in his game, but I thought he started to flash more on the West Coast trip. Unfortunately, his play has regressed this month, and his minutes have largely followed.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

yep, Semi hasn't been great this season. I'm not sure I ever made the case that he has been good this year?

My point was he was starting to hit 3s at a 38% rate this season. If he bumps that up to 40% there is a bench role for him as the 4th or 5th offensive option and on-ball beef vs big wings. Brad likes playing him because he's decent at D, if he becomes one of their better shooters from 3 I'm expecting Brad to utilize him more.

"Offensive blackholes" (as you called him) like Semi can be useful, if they are the 5th offensive option, shoot 40% from 3 and can play + defense against other teams' important offensive players.

When using +/-, the larger sample size is helpful, so last year is relevant (the previous season he sucked, yet Brad used him in the playoffs)

BTW I like Grant and Romeo and they should get minutes while they learn to play in the NBA. More minutes will come over the next 6 weeks, 23 games in 42 days, they will be needed.

Let's see what Brad does when they play the Bucks and Sixers in a few weeks. AND see how the next 6 weeks play out.

How many 3s do you want him taking a game, exactly? He's averaging 1.5 attempts right now. That would be 123 attempts. 38% is 47/123. 40% is 49/123. The difference is completely irrelevant. I'd guess at higher volume, he wouldn't be close to 38% and 38% isn't really what it used to be.

Plus he already has a bench role. He's played in 30 of the 31 games and is averaging over 15 minutes a night. Your argument is if Semi can hit 40% of his 3s instead of 38%, he can be in the role he's already in.

 

[benhogan]

How many 3s do you want him taking a game, exactly? He's averaging 1.5 attempts right now. That would be 123 attempts. 38% is 47/123. 40% is 49/123. The difference is completely irrelevant. I'd guess at higher volume, he wouldn't be close to 38% and 38% isn't really what it used to be.

Plus he already has a bench role. He's played in 30 of the 31 games and is averaging over 15 minutes a night. Your argument is if Semi can hit 40% of his 3s instead of 38%, he can be in the role he's already in.

the only argument I have is he's showing improvement from the 3 which makes his inevitable bump in minutes against Giannis and Simmons more palatable. As opposed to some that wanted to cut him 10 weeks ago and pull their hair out at the very sight of him in games now.

 

[lovegtm]

the only argument I have is he's showing improvement from the 3 (vs. the "really what it used to be" mindset) which make his inevitable bump in minutes against Giannis and Simmons more palatable. As opposed to some that wanted to cut him 10 weeks ago and pull their hair out at the very sight of him in games now.

That's fair. It's going to be tough to play him offensively against Milwaukee though: I'm more skeptical of them than most, but they really fly around defensively and run Semi types off the line. I'm cautiously optimistic that Grant can do the same Giannis-stopper role while not bogging down the offense.

 

[TripleOT]

The last thing NBA stars want is a mobile block of granite like Semi in front of them when they're trying to do their thing. Offensively, he's got a quicker release on his corner three and is making them at a higher percentage as last year. I don't know if he will be anything more on offense, but when you average almost 60 ppg from the three other wings, you don't need more than a three and a layup from him each game, along with the hard nosed defense.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Semi’s ultimate NBA role is probably as a 10th or 11th who becomes more valuable in certain situations (such as defending athletic non shooters).

 

[benhogan]

Semi’s ultimate NBA role is probably as a 10th or 11th who becomes more valuable in certain situations (such as defending athletic non shooters).

Really agree with this and TripleOT comment.
While Semi can be offensively frustrating driving against teams like the Hawks in January, you want him in the rotation for that 7 game playoff series against the Sixers/Bucks. If he's shooting a high % on 3s he'll just draw more attention on the perimeter which will open up the court for the Celtics more efficient offensive weapons.

So I wouldn't mind seeing a bump in Semi's minutes/3pt attempts during the regular season to see if the shooting improvement is sustainable. I'm sure there will be Cellar detractors since there was zero pushback to the notion that Semi is the worst offensive player in the NBA

Even with that improved shooting, he profiles as a complete black hole on offense. As in, like IT on defense level bad at offense. His shooting improvement simply isn’t enough to cover all his other offensive flaws.

 

[Koufax]

I agree with Ben on this. NBA basketball has turned into a 4-on-4 game with the 5th player planted in the corner waiting for the open 3. If he can tie up a defender, then the Celtics have enough firepower with the other 4. If he can't, and it turns into a 4-on-5 game, things get tough.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Semi’s ultimate NBA role is probably as a 10th or 11th who becomes more valuable in certain situations (such as defending athletic non shooters).

Isn't that already his role tho? He's 8th in minutes on the team, 10th in mpg. If they give him a minutes bump like Hogan is suggesting, he's closer to being the 6th guy than the 10th or 11th guy.

Maybe I'm missing something. To me, he's already in his "ultimate NBA role." And he's fine in it.

 

[slamminsammya]

This is purely based on my own eyes but it seems to me guys go at Semi when he's guarding them because even if he can move his feet good players are comfortable in the knowledge he won't meaningfully contest their shot. I don't think any offensive stars we might run into in the playoffs are gonna say "oh shit" when Semi gets matched up on them.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

This is purely based on my own eyes but it seems to me guys go at Semi when he's guarding them because even if he can move his feet good players are comfortable in the knowledge he won't meaningfully contest their shot. I don't think any offensive stars we might run into in the playoffs are gonna say "oh shit" when Semi gets matched up on them.

Except ones who can't shoot. He won't have to contest their shot, just stop them from getting by.

 

[slamminsammya]

So Giannis, anyone else? Siakam?

Except ones who can't shoot. He won't have to contest their shot, just stop them from getting by.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

This is purely based on my own eyes but it seems to me guys go at Semi when he's guarding them because even if he can move his feet good players are comfortable in the knowledge he won't meaningfully contest their shot. I don't think any offensive stars we might run into in the playoffs are gonna say "oh shit" when Semi gets matched up on them.

Yes. He can’t really guard anyone who is a threat to shoot.