#37 Semi Ojeleye

DannyDarwinism

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I would be really surprised if FG% against was at all meaningful for a guy with 780 total minutes played.

In addition to the poor steal and block rates, which are consistent with his college trends, Semi has the worst assist rate of any player with over 100 minutes played right now. His Player Impact numbers (combines box score with adjusted on/off) is second worst among rookies, and the guys near him are all 3 years younger.

He has great feet, he’s strong and he’s had some nice moments guarding some of the best players on earth. He’s a better shooter than his 44 TS% indicates. He’s a hard worker with a great coach in a system that has maximized his archetype before. If there’s room for hope, it comes from the eye test, and squinting.
 

southshoresoxfan

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I would be really surprised if FG% against was at all meaningful for a guy with 780 total minutes played.

In addition to the poor steal and block rates, which are consistent with his college trends, Semi has the worst assist rate of any player with over 100 minutes played right now. His Player Impact numbers (combines box score with adjusted on/off) is second worst among rookies, and the guys near him are all 3 years younger.

He has great feet, he’s strong and he’s had some nice moments guarding some of the best players on earth. He’s a better shooter than his 44 TS% indicates. He’s a hard worker with a great coach in a system that has maximized his archetype before. If there’s room for hope, it comes from the eye test, and squinting.
You have to squint to see the good in the 37th overall pick playing minutes right away for a 44 win 2 seed?

Your second paragraph is exactly why you don’t have to squint. Good shooting potential, excellent strength and footwork, and in a great system for his skill set.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You have to squint to see the good in the 37th overall pick playing minutes right away for a 44 win 2 seed?

Your second paragraph is exactly why you don’t have to squint. Good shooting potential, excellent strength and footwork, and in a great system for his skill set.
I have to agree with DD here. Many top playoff teams have young 2nd round picks or young undrafted FA playing at a higher level because they are earning that time, Bell (GS), VanVleet (Tor, even though its his second year), Forbes (SA) to name a few. The only reason Ojeleye is seeing his 14 mpg is due to Hayward's injury as a backend rotation 10th/11th man and to kill minutes in garbage time.

I liked the pick, and still do, as I had Semi as a late-1st rounder who can develop into a multi-positional matchup defender down the road but overall it isn't like he's been tearing it up out there when he does play.
 

southshoresoxfan

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I have to agree with DD here. Many top playoff teams have young 2nd round picks or young undrafted FA playing at a higher level because they are earning that time, Bell (GS), VanVleet (Tor, even though its his second year), Forbes (SA) to name a few. The only reason Ojeleye is seeing his 14 mpg is due to Hayward's injury as a backend rotation 10th/11th man and to kill minutes in garbage time.

I liked the pick, and still do, as I had Semi as a late-1st rounder who can develop into a multi-positional matchup defender down the road but overall it isn't like he's been tearing it up out there when he does play.
Not saying he’s tearing it up, I’m also not sure why he’s being nitpicked like a high lottery pick.

The second round pick has holes in his game. Uhhhh ya think?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not saying he’s tearing it up, I’m also not sure why he’s being nitpicked like a high lottery pick.

The second round pick has holes in his game. Uhhhh ya think?
That's what we do here. We praise Leon Powe and Glen Davis for awhile, see their flaws, and nitpick. I don't see anyone saying they are disappointed with the pick but we can still analyze the player.
 

JakeRae

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Not saying he’s tearing it up, I’m also not sure why he’s being nitpicked like a high lottery pick.

The second round pick has holes in his game. Uhhhh ya think?
Unless we are retrospectively evaluating how Ainge did in the draft, I don't really care where a player was drafted in analyzing how they are performing and what their future is. Semi is an NBA player, not a draft pick.

Semi hasn't really shown that he's anything more than a break-glass player with some limited matchup utility locking down wings who can't shoot on the defensive end.

For example, Crowder has been thrown around as an upside comp for Semi. Crowder came into the league as a 22-year old (drafted 34) and put up per-36 stats of:

10.4 points, 5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 1.3 turnovers. He shot .328 from three, .446 from two, and .644 at the line. He's improved a bit from there, but those numbers look an awful lot like his career averages.

Semi, in contrast, is 23 and is at 5.9 points, 5 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 0.7 turnovers. He is shooting .290 from three, .364 from 2, and .630 from the line.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Unless we are retrospectively evaluating how Ainge did in the draft, I don't really care where a player was drafted in analyzing how they are performing and what their future is. Semi is an NBA player, not a draft pick.
Very true.....unless your name is Nader then all bets are off. Bow down to the Abdel.
 

lovegtm

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Semi hasn't really shown that he's anything more than a break-glass player with some limited matchup utility locking down wings who can't shoot on the defensive end.
I basically agree with this, but in a conference where two of the best players are wings who can't shoot, he might have disproportionate value. He just finished being a key contributor to a series win, which is a lot more than most 37th picks ever get to say in their lives, let alone rookie seasons.
 

Euclis20

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Giannis in games 1-4: 27.8 ppg, 62% shooting.
Giannis in games 5-7: 23 ppg, 50% shooting.

Giannis went from borderline unstoppable to merely very good. As much as any adjustment in the series, that did it.
 

BigSoxFan

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Giannis in games 1-4: 27.8 ppg, 62% shooting.
Giannis in games 5-7: 23 ppg, 50% shooting.

Giannis went from borderline unstoppable to merely very good. As much as any adjustment in the series, that did it.
I’d like to see Semi and Marcus harass the crap out of Simmons next series.
 

Montana Fan

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All while Jordan Bell played 3 minutes versus the Spurs. Ainge and Brad know what they're doing. Defense, defense, defense. Jaylen recently said it in the JMac artcle, play defense and Brad will play you. Semi is going to be a Celtic for a while and if he can gain any confidence in his 3 point shot, watch out!
 

JCizzle

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I mean he was the worst player in the league by PIPM, he's fun and you can dream but take it easy eh.
let's wait until Fultz does something of value in the playoffs before we come trolling the semi thread. He was the number one overall pick.
 

southshoresoxfan

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No matter anyone’s opinion here on Semi, I’m sure if he was the 76ers pick LondonSox would find some stat that put him ahead of Michael Jordan.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I mean he was the worst player in the league by PIPM, he's fun and you can dream but take it easy eh.
You would call me something like an "effing idiot" for making a similar statement about a player who has a very small sample size of data that is being used in a measure like PIPM (not that you are wrong - I fully own my effing idiocy but so too should you).

First, nobody is saying that Ojeleye is anything other than an effective defender of late. Furthermore, the guy had sporadic playing time that only increased as the Celtics injuries mounted and the needed actual warm bodies to put on the court. Thus the afore-referenced small sample size.

Finally, we are just enjoying the defensive impact he had in this series. Maybe it was a fluke or something else but since Stevens called his number, Giannis was slowed enough to tilt the series in the Celtics favor. Maybe it wont work on Simmons and you can gloat. But unless I am misunderstanding the thrust of your post, you are tilting at windmills here. Nobody is saying that Semi is anything other than a defensive weapon at this point.
 

amarshal2

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I don’t think it was anything really special about Semi. I think the Bucks we’re having a lot of success getting switches onto Baynes and others. Brad went heavy with guys who couldn’t be taken advantage of by switches.
 

southshoresoxfan

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I don’t think it was anything really special about Semi. I think the Bucks we’re having a lot of success getting switches onto Baynes and others. Brad went heavy with guys who couldn’t be taken advantage of by switches.
I mean just watch the possessions where Giannis catches and tries to just run over Semi, yet bounces off.

This kid is a special defender already. His positioning and footwork may not show up in the PIPM stats or whatever non sense LondonSox is touting this week, but he is so physical and athletic that guys don’t get where they want to go on him often.
 

braudimusprime

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IDK, I watched Giannis repeatedly try to body Semi and just bounce off of him. I don't think he was a major contributor or anything but I don't think there's a question that Giannis had a hard time getting into rhythm against Semi.
 

LondonSox

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Sorry for saying he has been fun and you can dream on him and quoting one of the better new stats around.
LMAO ok.

This is a red Sox board not a Celtics one. And if you can't take actual stats <shrug> ban me.

This is what I thought this forum was about, not just having opinions by homers (myself included, after all you guys are very happy to counter) and using actual data to do analysis.
He's been fine defensively and has been roughly the worst offensive player in the league. He's been the worse rookie in the league overall because his offense has been THAT bad.
Now right above him are players like fox and Smith so clearly it's not a death sentence, but why don't you guys take a chill pill about his offensice upside.

Fultz has been awful by that stat, but barely played.
I love that you guys go THIS IS A CELTICS FORUM and then bring up sixers every time.

I also love that you guys slam my sixers "homer" takes when they are the fucking three seed, the second largest beaters of their Vegas prediction and currently (too optimisticly) favourite or joint favourite to win the east.
So MAYBE actually I wasn't a giant homer I just was right and watched the team

Enjoy your night sneaking past a bad team in 7 with home court

And DJ why would I slam you for using a new good stat to look at players.
PIPM (as you know) is luck adjusted. So it's a bit less noisy than others.

Btw Tatum was roughly as good as Mitchell based on it.

Edit; let it be noted that I was and am happy to talk about Semi here I was not the one who brought other topics in
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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One other thing about PIPM, its a newish metric that is interesting but it may have its flaws. Upthread southshore asked where Fultz ranked on it - the answer is well above Semi. Kadeem Allen ranked well above him too. Methinks the small source-data sample sizes for some rookies (one guess which rookie was ranked number one in PIPM?!??!) makes this a tough stat to use for evaluating players who haven't played much.

London's results may vary.
 

LondonSox

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I mean just watch the possessions where Giannis catches and tries to just run over Semi, yet bounces off.

This kid is a special defender already. His positioning and footwork may not show up in the PIPM stats or whatever non sense LondonSox is touting this week, but he is so physical and athletic that guys don’t get where they want to go on him often.
His defense is fine, it's his offense
Edit and oh this stat is stupid, ok I'll try to stick to PER or FG% like pitcher wins and batting average for you
 

braudimusprime

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It's almost as if a heavily-regressed stat like PIPM doesn't account for a player who's being asked to do one very specific thing in a short series (eg. don't let the other team's best player get comfortable).
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Semi is an absolute fucking specimen who moves his feet really well on defense. I'm not sure there any additional analysis to be done about him at this point.
 

JCizzle

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I appologize for discussing the player in the thread using analytics.
Please let me know what I should post next time.

Am I allowed to post stats if they support the circle jerk? Or do I have to just say innane platitudes about how stacked he is?
Yes.
 

amarshal2

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He’s currently a very bad offensive player. I don’t think this is disputable or controversial
 
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benhogan

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Semi Ojeleye will play more minutes and have a more positive impact in this series than overall #1 pick Markelle Fultz. Process that.
Fultz didn't play meaningful minutes in the Heat series. He was getting destroyed in the 1st half of game 3 against the Heat. Brown stapled him to the bench quickly and Markelle never saw another minute again. Zero in the rest of game 3. Zero mins in game 4. Zero minutes in game 5. TJ McConnell completely outplayed him, let that sink in for a minute.

Philly tried to bubble wrap Fultz, but he clearly got exposed. Probably won't see Markelle until next season.

Here's a new stat: Markelle has a high RPZM*

*RPZM (Riding Pine Zero Minutes)


 
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luckiestman

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Fultz didn't play a meaningful minute in the Heat series. He was getting destroyed in the 1st half of game 3 against the Heat. Brown stapled him to the bench quickly and Markelle never saw another minute again. TJ McConnell completely outplayed him, let that sink in for a minute.

Philly tried to bubble wrap Fultz, but he clearly got exposed. Probably won't see Markelle until next season.

Fuck Philly an all, but there is no need to shit talk my guy TJ. I like that kid.
 

HomeRunBaker

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One other thing about PIPM, its a newish metric that is interesting but it may have its flaws. Upthread southshore asked where Fultz ranked on it - the answer is well above Semi. Kadeem Allen ranked well above him too. Methinks the small source-data sample sizes for some rookies (one guess which rookie was ranked number one in PIPM?!??!) makes this a tough stat to use for evaluating players who haven't played much.

London's results may vary.
Haven't people yet learned that NBA playoff basketball is matchup specific? Semi is clearly our best defensive matchup for Giannis so Brad shouldn't play him because a metric that has nothing to do with a Giannis matchup says he's bad?

There are worthwhile uses for many analytics......there are also times to use these numbers in their proper context.
 

Cuzittt

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I mean he was the worst player in the league by PIPM, he's fun and you can dream but take it easy eh.
This is your first post today in this thread after it was bumped due to his DEFENSIVE impact over the past few games in the playoff.

So, yes, the Stat you utilized may very well be correct. And? What does that have to do with the effort he contributed in slowing down the Freak?

You bring valuable insight to this section of the board. Your knowledge on the Sixers is both impressive and useful.

But, stop pretending that you aren't trolling here. Because you are. And you are better than that.
 

LondonSox

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If by trolling you mean,

Giving some independent thought when people are getting a little carried away is trolling then yes I sure am.

These are not game threads, if it's a gush about a player or don't take part thread then so be it. But I think you are all better than that.

If you can't take an independent thought saying, hey I can see why you like him but he has been a bit beyond he needs a better three point shot from being anything you can play past matchups defensively. He has been stand out terrible offensively. Far more than offsetting his average defense .(average for a rookie being good before anyone gets upset or I'm trolling) what's the point of calling it a discussion?

Its not even an insult about him, I just said calm down basically.

But whatever
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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If by trolling you mean,

Giving some independent thought when people are getting a little carried away is trolling then yes I sure am.

These are not game threads, if it's a gush about a player or don't take part thread then so be it. But I think you are all better than that.

If you can't take an independent thought saying, hey I can see why you like him but he has been a bit beyond he needs a better three point shot from being anything you can play past matchups defensively. He has been stand out terrible offensively. Far more than offsetting his average defense .(average for a rookie being good before anyone gets upset or I'm trolling) what's the point of calling it a discussion?

Its not even an insult about him, I just said calm down basically.

But whatever
Literally no one was getting “carried away” about his offense. We know he’s a huge negative on offense right now. Everyone who gushed about him was talking about his defensive impact; and as has been said repeatedly, he’s an excellent matchup on big physical players who can’t take advantage of his tendency not to jump by shooting jumpers over him (Giannis in this series, and perhaps Ben the next).

Your “independent thought” was irrelevant to that point - it had nothing to do with what people were saying about him. Yeah, it was trolling.
 

Eddie Jurak

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If you can't take an independent thought saying, hey I can see why you like him but he has been a bit beyond he needs a better three point shot from being anything you can play past matchups defensively. He has been stand out terrible offensively. Far more than offsetting his average defense .(average for a rookie being good before anyone gets upset or I'm trolling) what's the point of calling it a discussion?
I think you are misreading the excitement about him. He played good 1 on 1 defense against the player who might be the most difficult matchup in the league. No one is excited about his offensive game or potential defensive value outside certain matchups.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Here's your post:
I mean he was the worst player in the league by PIPM, he's fun and you can dream but take it easy eh.
Here are the five posts above yours since the thread was bumped. Only one post could be construed to mentioning something other than the playoffs and specific matchups - depending on how you want to interpret the phrase "going to be a Celtic for a while" (which is undoubtedly true unless he gets traded) - but yet you post without specifically replying to anyone about his regular season stats. You really can't see how people would see that at best of topic and at worst trolling?

I basically agree with this, but in a conference where two of the best players are wings who can't shoot, he might have disproportionate value. He just finished being a key contributor to a series win, which is a lot more than most 37th picks ever get to say in their lives, let alone rookie seasons.
Giannis in games 1-4: 27.8 ppg, 62% shooting.
Giannis in games 5-7: 23 ppg, 50% shooting.

Giannis went from borderline unstoppable to merely very good. As much as any adjustment in the series, that did it.
I’d like to see Semi and Marcus harass the crap out of Simmons next series.
I think you will get what you (and many of us) want.
All while Jordan Bell played 3 minutes versus the Spurs. Ainge and Brad know what they're doing. Defense, defense, defense. Jaylen recently said it in the JMac artcle, play defense and Brad will play you. Semi is going to be a Celtic for a while and if he can gain any confidence in his 3 point shot, watch out!