49ers, Aiyuk, and where he will play in 2024 (not NE)
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
That opening sentence is an odd one. At first, I thought it was going to mean some sort of 3-way trade. But now I understand.
I was thinking more like Solomon with that baby. Like maybe we could split him over a 16 game season, but it’s awkward now with an odd number.
Not necessarily. He might take the lower offer if he likes the team better. or, SF might just being playing chicken with him and when given his options, he decides to stay
Sadly for the Patriots it’ll probably come down to whether he wants to play with DeShaun Watson or Brissett and eventually Maye.
This can’t be more than Bourne and a 3rd rounder if we’re going to end up paying Aiyuk $25-30m a year, right ?
While I don’t think that is great value, I’m okay with an overpay here . . . . Particularly if our rookie WRs are the real-deal.
While I don’t think that is great value, I’m okay with an overpay here . . . . Particularly if our rookie WRs are the real-deal.
Going to cost more than a 3rd. Aiyuk is one of the best in the league and he’s young. Multiple day 2 picks or a 1st.
There’s no way we are trading a first for Aiyuk, particularly knowing it will likely be a top 10 pick.
I could see a 4th and a 6th perhaps, but I would be stunned if they gave up even a 2nd. I think a 3rd is probably too much.
We've already seen this play out with Ridley. Pats need to offer a huge contract, and even then it may not be enough.
Still, I'm hoping.
Still, I'm hoping.
If it’s Bourne and a 3rd rounder, you don’t think twice except maybe wondering what Lynch knows that you don’t
I cant imagine SF is that desperate or stupid unless things are so toxic with Aiyuk that they don’t want it festering all year
I was thinking of Newman splitting the bike down the middle.
I would not want to trade a 1st. Only way I’d consider it is if SF and NE are doing a 1st round pick swap. I think you’re underestimating Aiyuk’s value.
https://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/49ers-brandon-aiyuk-trade-possibility-again-19620943.php
Continuing story from SF today
Continuing story from SF today
I don't like trading even a 2025 2nd given that should be in the 30s overall, and the rebuild could stretch on for awhile if Maye isn't it. Pretty surprised the Pats are in on this.
The benefit of a first round quarterback is the amazing contract. Need to spend those savings somewhere.
Trading one pick doesn’t kill any rebuild. Aiyuk is 26 years-old and would fill a current major need. A second feels like a reasonable price to get Maye some real talent.
And now you have some nice cheap WR options to balance out his high salary.
This is a near no brainer for me.
This is exactly where I am. We have a qb and some receivers on rookie deals, this is where you spend
This. The dude is a beast and would be a bigger star but SF has only one football to distribute on offense. Aiyuk would arguably be perceived a lot differently if his team wasn't the only one featured on Netflix's "Receiver" that had multiple...er... receivers.
If you assume that, if Maye is legit, it will realistically take until 2026/27 for the Patriots to be legit playoff contenders (could happen sooner, could happen later, thats probably the median outcome for QB's who "make it")....I'm not sure this is the best use of resources but maybe not the worst. Aiyuk is legit, and has also played for one of the best offensive coaches in the league for his career. 30m a year for an elite WR isn't a bad idea when you have a starting QB on a rookie deal (again all of this only even matters if Maye is legit). You're getting him for his prime-ish years here; I'd need to look into it more but feel like great but not like All-Pro 1 or 2 team receivers usually see dropoffs around years 7-8 unless they're game is totally power based (ala Anquan Boldin). You're getting the trickle down benefits of having an elite receiver for the other skill players. And you're using money at an impact position, where you've also invested draft capital recently. Honestly over the course of writing this post I've talked myself into it if it's for a JAG and 2nd round pick. If I had to bet though I'd think the current brain trust will go higher then that (woohoo).
Waiting for 1-2 years until you can get a top 5-7 WR on your ‘schedule’ is risky since those guys aren’t available perennially.
If you really hit on your QB your ‘schedule’ is a different beast than teams on the QB carousel anyways.
Agreed, going to get him now is the move I think. Hopefully the Browns don't drive the price up too much.
I definitely would not move a potential top 10 pick to pay a WR $30M a year when you could likely get a stud WR on a rookie deal next year.
I guess I’d be okay with a 2nd +4th + Bourne, but that still feels steep. Not trying to “win” the trade but okay with giving up a 30–something pick I suppose.
Only in the sense that the Patriots are now the team that pays top dollar for very good but not elite talent from SB contenders instead of the team that trades it away,
Aiyuk is going from a top 3 team in the league to fringe playoff or bottom dweller because he wants money, his choice won't be about whether the team is any good, it will be about which contract/situation he thinks makes him the most money short and long term.
Overthecap.com has the 49ers with about $52 million in cap space. So if they are willing to take JuJu, does that improve the draft picks the Pats include?
I look at it like this—they needed a QB, #1 WR, and a franchise LT to jumpstart the rebuild. They have the QB. If they get Aiyuk, that leaves the LT. If they can trade for BA without giving up the 1st, you can go get the LT in the draft next year presumably it’s top 10-12.
They don’t need to take Juju on. If it’s anyone beyond Bourne, they may take Judon
Agree with this on the whole, but I do think Aiyuk is an elite player. High efficiency, great raw production, blocks, can play all three core WR positions at all three levels. He’s a high level number one. But if your definition of ‘elite’ is limited to Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill (and perhaps Lamb, AJ Brown and Chase), then, sure, he’s not those couple of unicorn guys.
Nah. The Pats have over 40m in cap space, they don’t care about dumping JJSS’ contract for a couple million if it costs another, or higher, pick.
adding Judon to their defense could really do a lot to offset the impact on their Super Bowl ambitions from the loss of Aiyuk.
No chance the Pats give up their 2025 first. No chance SF makes a deal without the Pats giving up their 2025 second.
Patriots 2nd in 2025, Pats 4th in 2025, Kendrick Bourne and JuJu for Aiyuk. It's a decent haul to give up, but Aiyuk is an elite separator. Do it now.
Patriots 2nd in 2025, Pats 4th in 2025, Kendrick Bourne and JuJu for Aiyuk. It's a decent haul to give up, but Aiyuk is an elite separator. Do it now.
I think he's probably in the tier below elite, not a top 6 guy for sure, and some of the young guys are better on pure talent and will pass him. He's really good, but he's also a guy who the stats suggests really benefits from his role in a Shannahan offense and 2 WR sets on a dominant run team (his number in 2 WR sets are pretty ridiculous, in 3 WR or more they drop down to just really good). I think of him like.... Mike Evans (not now, a couple years ago), a guy who you can have as your #1 and forcefeed targets and get really good results, maybe get top 5 numbers but he's probably like the 10th to 18th best guy in the league in terms of neutral talent. I wouldn't have any real problem trading for him and giving him a $30M contract given our cap/roster, so long as it didn't involve trading a 2025 1st.
A year too early, a tier too low imo. I would prefer he choose Cleveland than give up the 2025 2nd + for the right to pay him $30 mil a year - agree with Cellar Door almost entirely on his actual standing in the pecking order and that he benefits from the 9ers roster in a way he’s unlikely to here this season. A valuable player, but to me feels like a move that a team that stays mediocre makes.
Early career Evans might be a good comp in terms of tier in the league, but I’m much less confident Aiyuk puts up 1000 yard seasons every year playing on the rosters Evans started his career on. Do you feel fully confident Aiyuk doesn’t put up a couple 900 yard seasons if here over the next 4 years? I don’t, at least not enough to want to jump in a year the plan seems to be figure out what you have.
It’s less the value going out the door - he’s worth a second and Bourne to me - but the package + timing + contract has me leaning no pretty easily.
Early career Evans might be a good comp in terms of tier in the league, but I’m much less confident Aiyuk puts up 1000 yard seasons every year playing on the rosters Evans started his career on. Do you feel fully confident Aiyuk doesn’t put up a couple 900 yard seasons if here over the next 4 years? I don’t, at least not enough to want to jump in a year the plan seems to be figure out what you have.
It’s less the value going out the door - he’s worth a second and Bourne to me - but the package + timing + contract has me leaning no pretty easily.
I think all of this is correct. Aiyuk is probably close to (arguably a little worse than) Cooks when the Pats traded for him back in 2017. A top 15, maybe top 12ish guy. I don’t see him as a top 5 WR and I don’t think he’s a guy who is going to consistently put up big numbers on bad teams or single handedly keep opposing d-coordinators up at night
That said, he’s a very very good (even if not elite) player at one of the most important positions in the league and a position which is critical for a young QB’s development. The chances that the 33rd-40th pick in the draft ever is as good or better than Aiyuk are slim. Any other non 1st round picks are fine to throw in as well. Bourne is marginally better than JAG and I can’t see why the 49ers would want him, but toss him in the deal too. Anything short of a 1st in 2025 or 2026 is fine with me. Even in terms of roster players, other than the obvious (Maye, Gonzalez, Barmore), I’d consider basically anyone fair game in a deal for Aiyuk or other equivalent WR (Higgins)
I don’t know why the contract would give you pause. The Pats have plenty of money to spend over the next 5 years and a 26 year old #1 WR (even if not a top 5 War) is a much better use of that cash than just about anything else they’ll be able to spend it on. They’re not going to find a left tackle to spend on in free agency and they’ve locked up basically the entirety of the core other than edge rusher (Uche and Judon).
If ever there was a time to splurge on a WR, it’s when you have a rookie QB that is fairly cheap (extremely cheap relative to starting QB salaries) and a rookie QB who could benefit from a stud WR.
Late to this story, but there is no way that JuJu would be open to that. Or be able to get open to that.